BAW Nation NBA Playoffs...

I am really excited we only have one game tomorrow night.

I need to catch-up a bit and analyzing these current series prices is something!

So, Curry out a week at minimum... Minny still -190 for the series...

Just a note there -- 3 full days off between Game #5 and Game #6.
 
I'm still digesting we had another wild ending...

And I missed this one --

New York is that 4th quarter team. They do not stop grinding.

Still, I thought Boston would find a way.

They played great defense it looks like through 3Q and then the last 7+ mins were a disaster.

OKC is no surprise, at all.

As I mentioned, the adrenaline was still there for GSW and Denver on Monday night. I should have just layed the number with OKC but decided to *stalk* it + the parlay. Pretty poopy I never had a shot.

Oh well, the right cap at least.

In theory, we should see similar in Minnesota. Add in that #30 is out. Minnesota you would think learned their lesson. Definitely a stalk game but starting off with the DD chalk...
 
These road teams laying 5, 5 and 2.5 are quite interesting for this weekend and pivotal Game #3s...

The Eastern series are simply wild. Crazy 4th's so far. Just, nuts.

I am excited, for obvious reasons...

50-1 Indy and 33-1 New York loom... I was hoping maybe one shock of a series. Now, I'm in position A with both teams.

All that being said, Boston has won plenty of road games and a sweep in NY wouldn't be a shock.

I'm hoping that Indy can come back to Cleveland at 3-1...

Still chewing on some things and will do some more reading on a heavy coffee morning tomorrow...

More breakdowns during tonight's Minny and Golden State game...
 
Minnesota -10.5 -110

Single unit to start and build from there...
2h Golden State +1 -110

I'm not done with this game...

Ant out and the lapses on D since concern me.

I have a few things going on total wise from earlier too so I'll be active 2h at some point.
 
I know Ant is out there but he doesn't look great moving around...

Hoping for the best.
 
A winning Thursday to stem the tide of a weird week. I'll take it. In reality it was a pounder but no complaints...

Weekend thoughts coming ...
 
Alright,

We are officially through 2 games in each series and I don't think anyone could have predicted where we are going into the weekend!

The West is somewhat normal, albeit we have some injury issues in one series.

Let's start there -- I think Ant's ankle will worsen after the meds/adrenaline wear off. I hope not, but we'll see. He seemed to get some rhythm in the 4th quarter and finished with 13 points in the 2h.

Curry status is still up in the air till next week.

This series still has plenty of ebbs n flows coming. Minnesota needs to lean on their defense on the road and stay aggressive going to the basket on offense.

Lemme tangent real quick and tell you my two leans right now for Friday...

Cleveland TT over
Oklahoma City TT over

I said before the series that I would target okc tt's a lot in different aspects. The bottom line is this --Denver defense is NOT good and we saw that the other night. I expect excellent pace in Denver as well.

Cleveland in a must win game. They have scored well in both games, but especially the other night until complacency set in. They have to stave off a wild crowd and a Pacers team that's riding high. I don't know if they win, but I know they will fight to the bitter end. I simply don't see them winning a low scoring affair.

119/116 are the current #s there.

I lean OKC game and think the game at Indy is a coin flip. We'll revisit that after morning injury news comes in.

Saturday at MSG will be just an incredible scene. I don't care for a 330 start but that is life. That line has went up to 5.5 with a total of 205. I can't believe we're sitting here with Bostons season on the line. But, here we are.

My prediction for the two games at MSG is this -- one blowout and one final possession game.

Do we see an over? Perhaps with a venue change and the fact that these teams are due to shoot better. Credit the defense, both ways, but shots will drop a bit better as well.

Still thinking about angles for tomorrow night but those are my initial two leans.

Capping props while I finish this 3rd period in Vegas.
 
Good luck tonight! I still don’t understand these Pacers lines. These teams are even. No reason the Pacers should be catching 5 at home. Appears I’m going to have to continue to blindly play the Pacers throughout the series, and we’ll see how it ends up. I just don’t get it.
 
Admittedly was not too happy with end of half, I figured we'd have 60-61 at the break.
 
And how the heck did they score only 2 in OT?

What on God's earth happened here?

I just looked at the last 6 mins + OT...

I can understand a slow down of some sort playoff end of game but goodness this is epic.

Okc ended up shooting under 40% (think it was 48-49% at half) and Jokic shot 8-25.

I'll make this worse everyone.

I had ONE unit on live over 219.5 as well.

That's what I'm most incensed at!

Actually, I'm mad I didn't play the Cavs last night. Screw the injuries, play the bet then. Play them both, and you at worst juice out.

Week of bad decisions...
My one good decision was giving no chase on the TT as the 3rd quarter was going a long...


All good, we'll bounce back.
 
Cavs are -155 for the series now and that price could honestly be a bit higher.

I think the dream of the Pacers 50-1 future goes up in flames. This is regular Cleveland again.

I wouldn't be shocked if they take 4 in a row and win this in 6.

Indy is tough as nails though and I'll hope for a Game 7.
 
Two road teams -5.5 tomorrow...

Thunder -6 Sunday is a hefty tariff as well...

Peeking props for tomorrow otherwise live betting. Boston should get a win. I hope not, but as I said we have one blowout and one nail biter coming at MSG.

Does tomorrow feel like a Derek White game to anyone else? @survive&advance @emg2525 and anyone else who has an opinion...
 
Two road teams -5.5 tomorrow...

Thunder -6 Sunday is a hefty tariff as well...

Peeking props for tomorrow otherwise live betting. Boston should get a win. I hope not, but as I said we have one blowout and one nail biter coming at MSG.

Does tomorrow feel like a Derek White game to anyone else? @survive&advance @emg2525 and anyone else who has an opinion...
Didn't White have two good games in a row? He scored 19 & 20 first two on bad percentages. I think Bridges can continue his q4 in Game 2 performance...
 
Didn't White have two good games in a row? He scored 19 & 20 first two on bad percentages. I think Bridges can continue his q4 in Game 2 performance...
Sorry I didn't mean to infer he was due for a game...

Simply that I feel like he will be a big part 12 hours from now.

He has 34/32 PRA in this series. I expect at least that tomorrow. He had some really clutch road playoff games last year. Just a cool customer.
 
Two road teams -5.5 tomorrow...

Thunder -6 Sunday is a hefty tariff as well...

Peeking props for tomorrow otherwise live betting. Boston should get a win. I hope not, but as I said we have one blowout and one nail biter coming at MSG.

Does tomorrow feel like a Derek White game to anyone else? @survive&advance @emg2525 and anyone else who has an opinion...
I would suspect heavy minutes for Tatum, brown and white in this spot. Maybe low 40s if it’s a competitive game. Would be over or nothing for me
 
And how the heck did they score only 2 in OT?

What on God's earth happened here?

I just looked at the last 6 mins + OT...

I can understand a slow down of some sort playoff end of game but goodness this is epic.

Okc ended up shooting under 40% (think it was 48-49% at half) and Jokic shot 8-25.

I'll make this worse everyone.

I had ONE unit on live over 219.5 as well.

That's what I'm most incensed at!

Actually, I'm mad I didn't play the Cavs last night. Screw the injuries, play the bet then. Play them both, and you at worst juice out.

Week of bad decisions...
My one good decision was giving no chase on the TT as the 3rd quarter was going a long...


All good, we'll bounce back.
Horrible offense sets. Pretty much all SGA iso ball, no ball movement at all. Daignault and playoff experience really costing them
 
No comeback today.

This is the blowout I said was coming in G3 or G4.

I like to avoid easy bets though and now have to fear lack of 2h mins.

Hopefully he can get maybe 8 more points and the rest fills in.

No 2h plays, value gone.

Back for late game.
 
Brutal

24 going into 4th and didn’t cash
Never expected it to cash in 4th.

25 point lead and he played entire 3rd quarter. He actually came back in very late and had an assist or rebound.

He had 24 combined with 6 or so mins left in the 3rd.

Three tries from 3 all missed.

He didn't collect a rebound or assist in the 3rd. That's the wildest part.

Great cap... Even thought about blowout (was hoping less garbage time due to blown leads).

Coach went with other guys for the first 8 of 4th, killing any chance.
 
Cavs are -155 for the series now and that price could honestly be a bit higher.

I think the dream of the Pacers 50-1 future goes up in flames. This is regular Cleveland again.

I wouldn't be shocked if they take 4 in a row and win this in 6.

Indy is tough as nails though and I'll hope for a Game 7.
The dream is alive and well
 
The dream is alive and well

All my pacer props which on good to great paces are toast cause they ain’t gonna sniff the court in the 4th qrtr. I can’t take nba and all these redic blowouts or watching Celtics miss 75 treys in 2 home games. There shouldn’t be the amount of these crazy blowouts but it happening more and more frequently. Pacers winning no shock, winning by 40 at the half and Cavs making a grand total of 8 field goals is very hard to watch. I was really hoping the 1st round be the end of most this trash but every series this round has had at least 1 if not more of these non competative total garbage, unwatchable games.
 
The dream is alive and well

Other than all my complaining yes the dream is very alive. I know teams don’t really care if they get blown out anymore as their bank accounts still looking nice which all they care bout but there no coming back from this ass whipping. Cavs ain’t winning 3 straight against these guys in any world!

Not only that but it pretty clear pacers can play with Celtics, or steamroll the Knicks. I still think Celtics be their opponent but they hand you at least 2 games missing 100 treys. So you really just have to play 2 great games to beat Boston!
 
The dream is alive and well
Man, that wasn't a reverse jinx at all but whatever I said worked lol.

Listen, I had no doubt in my mind Indy would play much better.

That was a given. I just thought Cleveland would win a tight one and then roll at home in G5.

Busy day so never posted but played...

Indy TT 1st half over.

2h over, in general.

Lost Hali points over. Good grief. I don't even think he gets that playing 36 mins. He's such an odd player at times.

11-5-5 in a huge win. I dunno. Anyways...was a coulda woulda shoulda game for me .. made profit but coulda been much more.
 
Haven't posted plays in a few days except the Knicks ML in the in-game last night but back on track a bit...

More than that though -- Pacers and Knicks futures are ALIVE and WELL.

Tempering my enthusiasm for now.

Shall see.

I'll do a longer post around 430 today with playoff thoughts. Tonight is interesting to say the least...
 
Man, that wasn't a reverse jinx at all but whatever I said worked lol.

Listen, I had no doubt in my mind Indy would play much better.

That was a given. I just thought Cleveland would win a tight one and then roll at home in G5.

Busy day so never posted but played...

Indy TT 1st half over.

2h over, in general.

Lost Hali points over. Good grief. I don't even think he gets that playing 36 mins. He's such an odd player at times.

11-5-5 in a huge win. I dunno. Anyways...was a coulda woulda shoulda game for me .. made profit but coulda been much more.
Yeah i'm puzzled as to why my Nembhard points didn't hit. I can't think off the top of my head how Indy should have scored so many points without getting much from Hali and Nembhard
 
Yeah i'm puzzled as to why my Nembhard points didn't hit. I can't think off the top of my head how Indy should have scored so many points without getting much from Hali and Nembhard

I’m guessing since the bench played half the 3rd and entire freaking 4th the scoring was fairly spread out. I was pretty much 1 bucket, board, or assist from hitting every pacers player prop (other than that jackass mathurin who decided to throw that weak ass punch) and Turner was the only one who cashed thanks to yet another terrible shit show nba blowout. Up til recently I felt like props were still a good option in nba playoffs but now with all these blowouts and starters having front row seats in the 4th opposed to actually playing it has gotten incredibly frustrating for me. I can’t pick my fucking nose let alone a winner this year and that never been the case in the nba playoffs.

(7 pacers were in double digits last game, do nuggets even play 7 guys? 9 pacers played 10+ minutes. Nembhard the only one who played significant minutes and didn’t score double digits).
 
Haven't posted plays in a few days except the Knicks ML in the in-game last night but back on track a bit...

More than that though -- Pacers and Knicks futures are ALIVE and WELL.

Tempering my enthusiasm for now.

Shall see.

I'll do a longer post around 430 today with playoff thoughts. Tonight is interesting to say the least...

I’m tailing someone so can’t wait! Im done pretending I might pick an nba winner this year! Im doing way better on nhl which I don’t even know players names!!
 
Cavs are +240/+250 to win this series.

They certainly can.

Does a rolling ML parlay pay out better?

Perhaps.

Just thinking out loud.

Mitchell injury is the catch right now.

I expect a Cleveland explosion tonight. Either way -- but no pregame TTs until we see The Don out there and how he is.

I'm assuming he's fine though. He aggravated an old injury per the MRI.

Indiana won't shoot like that again -- no chance at all.

Factor that into decisions tonight....

I'd expect we get some of the pace back with venue change in OKC. Is their value? I dunno. The pace last game was more a 215 or so game if you take away the terrible shooting.

Who knows though!? OKC is the best team left but the coach is becoming more suss in my eyes as these playoffs move on.

Jokic assists have been lower this series -- can't touch the 8.5 at plus money but I wouldn't be shocked by his best all around game this series. Yes, I know G1 was incredible but that was impressive yet not his best if you watched the game. He's had some questionable shooting decisions this series.

I do have one prop late -- just for my guy @2daBank

Braun PRA o20.5 -113
 
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