B1G week 5

HUNT

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Iowa at Maryland. Who you got?

Charlotte at Illinois. Upset alert?

Minnesota at Purdue. If you're betting this game God bless you.

Michigan at Wisconsin. I like Wisconsin personally but not touching it pregame. Niether qb can throw. Who do you all like?

Ohio State at Rutgers. Rutgers is a tough ass out. Buckeyes need to be physical.


Northwestern at Nebraska. See Minnesota at Purdue.

Wky @Michigan state. Don't know much about Wky. Fill me in.

Indiana @Penn state. Don't see Indiana winning this.
 
Yup, Maryland. Iowa offense is pathetic. Lia has been really good with the ball so far 10-1 ratio after being just 7-7 last year. Terp WRs vs Iowa D should be good to watch, just need Lia to continue to make good throws. His INT vs Kent was deflected, maybe off receivers hands if I remember. Everyone under the sun has stopped Iowa offense, why can't Maryland?
 
49er run D major concern. UTSA is a significantly better team than Charlotte so not really comparable in terms of the Illinois matchup.
 
Yup, Maryland. Iowa offense is pathetic. Lia has been really good with the ball so far 10-1 ratio after being just 7-7 last year. Terp WRs vs Iowa D should be good to watch, just need Lia to continue to make good throws. His INT vs Kent was deflected, maybe off receivers hands if I remember. Everyone under the sun has stopped Iowa offense, why can't Maryland?

Yeah, I think MD will win.
 
Nebraska had no business losing that game. Can they continue to bounce back from these tough losses?

Definitely a valid concern. It's what gives me pause, but then I thought nw is the worst team in the big ten. Nebraska can stop that offense fairly easy as cub mentioned.
 
Injuries are piling up in West Lafayette....it's not pretty

Purdue has lost its No. 1 running back (Zander Horvath); No. 1 cornerback (Cory Trice); No. 1 receiver (David Bell); No. 2 running back (King Doerue). And today, the program lost its No. 1 tight end (Payne Durham); No. 1 DT (Branson Deen); No. 1 LEO (DaMarcus Mitchell). Before the season began, No. 1 MLB Semisi Fakasiieikiwas was lost to a season-ending injury. And d-tackle Anthony Watts opted not to return for the season.
 
How does michigan fans feel about their run defense ? Gave up neary 200 to rutgers oline and 140 to northern illinois. Was a big hole last year, is it fixed ?

Matchup favors wisconsin me think if michigans still a little weak there. Not that wisconsin can run the ball like they used too but they are still decent. Defensively gotta be a perfect matchup for the badgers if michigan just wants to pound into them.
Leaning badgers

Rutgers - Schiano got passed up for DC and now he gets a revenge opportunity. Rutgers

NW/Nebraska - I think NW is 2019 bad but without a defense. Huskers

maryand, illinois, western kentucky all sound good. Indiana line seems high
 
How does michigan fans feel about their run defense ? Gave up neary 200 to rutgers oline and 140 to northern illinois. Was a big hole last year, is it fixed ?

Matchup favors wisconsin me think if michigans still a little weak there. Not that wisconsin can run the ball like they used too but they are still decent. Defensively gotta be a perfect matchup for the badgers if michigan just wants to pound into them.
Leaning badgers

Rutgers - Schiano got passed up for DC and now he gets a revenge opportunity. Rutgers

NW/Nebraska - I think NW is 2019 bad but without a defense. Huskers

maryand, illinois, western kentucky all sound good. Indiana line seems high
I'll get more into UM Wisky later.

Remember NIU was 35-106 rushing sans that middle of 4th QB run by Rocky (45 yards).
 
McCord starts at Rutgers.

Stroud "available"
Someone blew a headline with a piece listing McCord as the starter vs Rutgers in the headline. The Yahoo piece was from Saturday prior to the Akron game, which I think was the origin of the error. No announced decision yet.
 
How does michigan fans feel about their run defense ? Gave up neary 200 to rutgers oline and 140 to northern illinois. Was a big hole last year, is it fixed ?

Matchup favors wisconsin me think if michigans still a little weak there. Not that wisconsin can run the ball like they used too but they are still decent. Defensively gotta be a perfect matchup for the badgers if michigan just wants to pound into them.
Leaning badgers

Rutgers - Schiano got passed up for DC and now he gets a revenge opportunity. Rutgers

NW/Nebraska - I think NW is 2019 bad but without a defense. Huskers

maryand, illinois, western kentucky all sound good. Indiana line seems high

They struggled biiiiiig time with the rpo and the qb keeping it late. Same old shit. It will bite them in the ass at Nebraska, psu and Ohio state. Can't defend the rpo. Plus Ross their best lber was out in second half.
 
I'd be more worried about the offense. 275 yds vs Rutgers?
Yeah, they kind of stopped at halftime it seems...

McNamara got his bell rung pretty good too.

Coaches said it was the worst blocking game of the 4 so far.

I regard Rutgers pretty highly on defense (in relation to what we expect from a Rutgers team).
 
I remember OSU being up big, but Schiano played it like they were in the game the entire time, like if felt like he was oblivious to what the score was and was playing to win when they had no shot of winning. Or maybe he felt like he was playing with house money. Came away impressed, as everyone generally is with his second tour there. No Justin Fields this year, figures to be much closer.
 
Okay, lets talk last week...

No surprise that Wisconsin lost. That line was weird. With that being said, that is obviously a misleading final score. Notre Dame had 248 yards of offense, and lost that battle by 60+ yards. The Badger defense is legit, still. We know how that 4th went and 31 points is still crazy to me. Imagine having the under in that game?

I feel terrible for Nebraska. They played a helluva 2nd half. That defense was damn good and they deserved to win that game. The huskers have played really good defensively the last several weeks. One special teams play though, and a really bad one at that. The Spartans boxed up some of the old lucky charms and got the victory. I think this kind of game was good for them, to bring them back to earth slightly, and they will continue to improve as a result of it.

Penn State was sluggish a bit vs Nova and gave up some 4th quarter scores. The run game was non-existent, albeit the big guns hardly played. With that being said, the 3.4 ypc team wide is not good and this will hurt them when they play teams with a pulse in the secondary in league play. That really is the missing part for them to be an elite team at this point. The schedule gets tough pretty quick...

Gonna skip the rest of the games since I didn't see anything else...now onto Rutgers and Michigan...

I knew this would be a tough game. Shiano has Rutgers in just about every game and they simply play hard each and every week. Michigan with a big game on deck as well... the first half went just fine but seemingly the Wolverines started thinking about next week at halftime... Lets address some issues...

1. QB -- I like the way this team has progressed overall but in order to get to where they can be, they need more than a game manager. Cade is a gamer, but he has his limitations. Now, on the other hand, JJ is electric and has all the tools but will make mistakes that could be costly. In my opinion, I would rather lose a game or two this year they should win and get this kid into games. I think they would also win a game or two they shouldn't with him at the helm. You can still lean on a good running game and an improved defense while also adding another dimension. We shall see...

Cade got his bell rung and was hesitant in the latter going, no doubt. The o-line had their worst game and part of that was Rutgers executed what they wanted to do very well.

On the other end... the DL is the softest part of the defense and they got beat up a little bit in the 2h which brings us to...

2. DL -- This is the area that was neglected recruiting-wise under Don Brown and that will show at times. This week is a real litmus test playing vs a Wisconsin team that has demoralized the defense 2 years running...

3. Passing Game -- The fans really want to see more out of the passing game. Reading any Michigan board is nauseating, as the same stuff is repeated over and over. The Rutgers game did nothing to dispel the displeasures of the fans. Yes, a few big plays but overall not enough to give much confidence going into next week. This correlates with #1 obviously. To beat good teams, you must be able to make plays through the year, simple as that. That is the BIG question as we enter Wisconsin week...
 
Okay, so middle of last week the lookahead line was 3.5/4 for the Badgers..

It opened back up -1 and went to +1 pretty quickly.

This is all very interesting to me... I still have this at 3.5 myself... but we gotta dig in more...

Here are my burning questions...


1.) Despite an average, for Wisky standards, running game...will they wear down Michigan?
2.) Will Michigan play it very conservative?
3.) I know Michigan has something up it's sleeve this week, what will it be? Will it be effective?
4.) Who do we trust MORE to turn it over LESS?


I am glad Michigan had to fight one out last week. That was needed.

I am not glad Wisconsin lost. I hate playing a wounded team needing a victory.

I think there is still a mental hurdle for UM here and that could turn sideways if things start to go wrong.

I also think they have the mental fortitude to come into this place and win.

Will they win? I give them maybe a 35% chance honestly. They will need to force some turnovers, and play near mistake free ball.

My take right now, is 24-17 kind of game.

Still really thinking this over, a lot.
 
One interesting aspect of this year's Wisconsin-Michigan game is the prior seasons Wisconsin was playing well entering the UM game. There was the year Wisconsin got upset by BYU, but still they had beating Iowa by 11 and Nebraska by 17 the two games prior to Michigan in 2018. 2017 Wisconsin was undefeated entering Michigan game winning Big Ten games by 17ppg avg.

Wisconsin isn't that team right now. Teams can start bad and turn good and they can start good and turn bad. However, in terms of how Badgers are playing entering this particular game is a lot different than previous 3 games. UW is struggling on O and has had some issues on D occasionally as well. Can't say that for the prior UW teams entering this game.
 
FYI - I think it's a near certainty that Aidan O'Connell is QB1 for Purdue. The Brohms are announcing it to the team internally today.

I'm expecting near abandonment of a traditional run game with the top 2 backs out and likely the best run blocking TE to go with it and the only option now is to just put the gun slinger in there and live with the good & bad. Two weeks in a row AOC has had immediate success going down field and moving the sticks after the offense was doing nothing with Plummer vs ND/Illinois however....4 of those drives ended with picks (albeit 2 of them first went through Boiler hands).

Bombs away for better or worse
 
Okay, lets talk last week...

No surprise that Wisconsin lost. That line was weird. With that being said, that is obviously a misleading final score. Notre Dame had 248 yards of offense, and lost that battle by 60+ yards. The Badger defense is legit, still. We know how that 4th went and 31 points is still crazy to me. Imagine having the under in that game?

I feel terrible for Nebraska. They played a helluva 2nd half. That defense was damn good and they deserved to win that game. The huskers have played really good defensively the last several weeks. One special teams play though, and a really bad one at that. The Spartans boxed up some of the old lucky charms and got the victory. I think this kind of game was good for them, to bring them back to earth slightly, and they will continue to improve as a result of it.

Penn State was sluggish a bit vs Nova and gave up some 4th quarter scores. The run game was non-existent, albeit the big guns hardly played. With that being said, the 3.4 ypc team wide is not good and this will hurt them when they play teams with a pulse in the secondary in league play. That really is the missing part for them to be an elite team at this point. The schedule gets tough pretty quick...

Gonna skip the rest of the games since I didn't see anything else...now onto Rutgers and Michigan...

I knew this would be a tough game. Shiano has Rutgers in just about every game and they simply play hard each and every week. Michigan with a big game on deck as well... the first half went just fine but seemingly the Wolverines started thinking about next week at halftime... Lets address some issues...

1. QB -- I like the way this team has progressed overall but in order to get to where they can be, they need more than a game manager. Cade is a gamer, but he has his limitations. Now, on the other hand, JJ is electric and has all the tools but will make mistakes that could be costly. In my opinion, I would rather lose a game or two this year they should win and get this kid into games. I think they would also win a game or two they shouldn't with him at the helm. You can still lean on a good running game and an improved defense while also adding another dimension. We shall see...

Cade got his bell rung and was hesitant in the latter going, no doubt. The o-line had their worst game and part of that was Rutgers executed what they wanted to do very well.

On the other end... the DL is the softest part of the defense and they got beat up a little bit in the 2h which brings us to...

2. DL -- This is the area that was neglected recruiting-wise under Don Brown and that will show at times. This week is a real litmus test playing vs a Wisconsin team that has demoralized the defense 2 years running...

3. Passing Game -- The fans really want to see more out of the passing game. Reading any Michigan board is nauseating, as the same stuff is repeated over and over. The Rutgers game did nothing to dispel the displeasures of the fans. Yes, a few big plays but overall not enough to give much confidence going into next week. This correlates with #1 obviously. To beat good teams, you must be able to make plays through the year, simple as that. That is the BIG question as we enter Wisconsin week...

It really looks like both teams want to do the same exact thing. Pound the rock hard at a 2/1 run/pass ratio. I trust Wisconsin's defense more in stopping the run. They are near elite at that. Michigan's run defense - has it been tested yet by a real team ? Rutgers oline is their weakness and michigan performed better vs them last year statistically. Of the two rush defenses it is more likely imo michigan is not going to be improved enough to shut down a wisconsin team that ran for 341 on them than wisconsins run d vs a much improved michigan run o.

Wisky lost 3 in a row last year - northwestern, indiana, iowa. 3 real good defenses. If Michigan d has gotten close to that caliber they can win in a rock fight.

Pass game as always can be the wildcard but with everything being based off the run for these 2 teams and relative lack of success passing, it's hard to evaluate what that is going to look like. If Leonard inexpiably lets guys break free deep again like he did vs penn state though it's going to be michigans day.
 
WKY can throw it on Sparty I think.

Damn right they will be able to throw on sparty! They threw on Hoosiers who I think has a strong pass d (best thing they do imo). Sparty will gash them on the ground tho, walker should go for 2 bills minimum! Wku tackling is ass, I expect he goes for 6-7-8 ypc in this one. I like wku to cover but opposite of last week where wku was stronger for me than over (did play both, along with wku ml which they had a real chance), this week I think the over is stronger but do lean wku w the points also.

Hoosiers were really able to limit possessions in that game and they settled for a lot of Fgs in scoring range. So even tho I’d expect sparty to control the TOP and tempo I don’t think it will matter. sparty superior rushing attack will allow them to score tds when they get into scoring range, plus I expect they break a long one or 2! Wku was very efficient with their lack of opportunities, they had very few bad drives , the nice thing when the offense doesn’t score they take almost no time off the clock, when they do score it doesn’t take much more! After wku got the offense really humming in 2nd half, on their second drive Hoosiers smartly took a time out on defense after they got into red zone and were able to hold them to a fg after that. From that point on Indy defenders started faking a lot of injuries to slow wku offense down! I think something should be done about that! I dunno what they can do? it was so blatant and annoyed me a great deal (as it did the wku fans!)!! .

At some point they gonna start hanging wku totals in the mid/upper 60s or low 70s, until that happens I’m gonna keep playin them! Shoutout to Mars for pointing out the changes wku made this offseason basically bringing in Houston Baptist entire offense which was very good!! Has made me some nice bank thus far!! Riding it till the wheels fall off! Sparty should score 35+ without much resistance, fully confident wku can take care of the rest!
 
It really looks like both teams want to do the same exact thing. Pound the rock hard at a 2/1 run/pass ratio. I trust Wisconsin's defense more in stopping the run. They are near elite at that. Michigan's run defense - has it been tested yet by a real team ? Rutgers oline is their weakness and michigan performed better vs them last year statistically. Of the two rush defenses it is more likely imo michigan is not going to be improved enough to shut down a wisconsin team that ran for 341 on them than wisconsins run d vs a much improved michigan run o.

Wisky lost 3 in a row last year - northwestern, indiana, iowa. 3 real good defenses. If Michigan d has gotten close to that caliber they can win in a rock fight.

Pass game as always can be the wildcard but with everything being based off the run for these 2 teams and relative lack of success passing, it's hard to evaluate what that is going to look like. If Leonard inexpiably lets guys break free deep again like he did vs penn state though it's going to be michigans day.

Total implies big time rock fight! Wiscy is holding teams to 1 freaking yard per carry on the season! Tough sledding for a team coming in who has to run the ball for offensive success!! I dunno how Michigan scores? Obviously this will be the best rushing attack wiscy has seen, sucks ND gave us no measuring stick seeing how their run game been awful. Crazy to see Michigan running it at a way higher clip than even wiscy! Who the 3 teams running at a higher clip than Michigan? I’m assuming all the service academies and nobody else? Army-navy-AF? Just a guess.

Wiscy kept ND longest completion to 36 yards, after that just a few 20 yarders was it. Even with the bombs they allowed pen st to hit wiscy only allowing 6.2 per pass overall, obviously the eastern mich game helped that a great deal. Michigan pass d been even more stingy at 5.6 yards per attempt! Unlike UM’s lofty 10 yards per pass (11th in country) wiscy only averaging 6 (103 in country!). Sure feels like Michigan will have to hit a few big shot plays, whether they can I dunno? Outside the udub game where they didn’t need to throw a pass Michigan been hitting 50+ yard passes in every game. I have no idea what the play is here? If UM can hit a few shot plays that might be enough to beat a wiscy team who prob kicks 3-4 Fgs! Lol
 
Okay, so middle of last week the lookahead line was 3.5/4 for the Badgers..

It opened back up -1 and went to +1 pretty quickly.

This is all very interesting to me... I still have this at 3.5 myself... but we gotta dig in more...

Here are my burning questions...


1.) Despite an average, for Wisky standards, running game...will they wear down Michigan?
2.) Will Michigan play it very conservative?
3.) I know Michigan has something up it's sleeve this week, what will it be? Will it be effective?
4.) Who do we trust MORE to turn it over LESS?


I am glad Michigan had to fight one out last week. That was needed.

I am not glad Wisconsin lost. I hate playing a wounded team needing a victory.

I think there is still a mental hurdle for UM here and that could turn sideways if things start to go wrong.

I also think they have the mental fortitude to come into this place and win.

Will they win? I give them maybe a 35% chance honestly. They will need to force some turnovers, and play near mistake free ball.

My take right now, is 24-17 kind of game.

Still really thinking this over, a lot.

2. 100%, smashmouth football, 13 passes from Cade, don't turn it over..1983 football.
 
I will say Michigan has the turnover edge tho...wisky is a turnover machine on offense. such an even game, but it would be a blowout if Michigan ran a 2021 offense and put their best qb in.
 
I need to clarify my 25-2 Iowa state. It is only 20-6-1 against the spread. Teams that give Iowa trouble are those who are patient and willing to take 4 yards and complete short passes. Is that Maryland? Iowa's offense has people thinking team is inept. Ferentz is perfectly willing to muck up a game and has no ego concerning stats. I saw in person the game earlier this year where Iowa St waved the white flag after 3 quarters with a qb with as many accolades as Maryland. I may be off and Maryland may cover but I can't see how they are the right side.
 
Nothing official but vibes are really positive within the program that David Bell will be back out there for Purdue against Minnesota.
 
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I've been on the Indiana fade train all year but catching 13 at PSU seems kinda high no?

Any injury info I'm missing?

Now that you mention I been against Hoosiers a bunch also, agree it them or nothing here tho. I thought pennix looked a tad better last week, I dunno if that was simply a product of wku giving him all day to throw and for some reason playing outside leverage w their corners all night making it super easy for pennix to complete those slants!! 53 total might be a little high?
 
The cap in this game is IU pass defense.

wku hurry up/spread passing attack gave Indy pass d some real problems. Despite pen st not showing that a ton early in the year isn’t that their OC mo? I wonder if seeing the film from the wku game if he elects to do more of that this week? Hoosiers had to burn time outs to slow the wku attack down when they got into red zone, after that worked I noticed Hoosier defenders started having mysterious “injuries” after damn near every wku 1st down in the 4th quarter! Either conditioning was a issue for them or they were faking to slow wku down! Whatever the case think it showed the way to attack them!
 
I need to clarify my 25-2 Iowa state. It is only 20-6-1 against the spread. Teams that give Iowa trouble are those who are patient and willing to take 4 yards and complete short passes. Is that Maryland? Iowa's offense has people thinking team is inept. Ferentz is perfectly willing to muck up a game and has no ego concerning stats. I saw in person the game earlier this year where Iowa St waved the white flag after 3 quarters with a qb with as many accolades as Maryland. I may be off and Maryland may cover but I can't see how they are the right side.

It hard to make a strong case against iowa at that number but I’d def rather have Terps qb than Purdy for isu! The contrasting styles make this thing so interesting to me. I think Terps easily the best offense iowa will play this year while iowa most def be the best defense Terps have or will see.

Baby Tua has been pretty good in terms of not making bad interception worthy throws and he completing a really high clip, he might be patient enough. I still dunno what iowa offense will be if they get into a game where the other team doesn’t hand them points with turnovers?

Terps offense has struggled in the red zone, I feel fairly confident they will be able to move the ball between the 20s some but if iowa can force them into Fgs think it go long way to gettin out of here with a win. I’m not sure if Terps ready for this stage or not? I think they absolutely have the talent at the skill positions to make this interesting, Im not sure they can handle iowa physicality tho?

This just a watch game for me cause I want to play Terps but I don’t want to be sitting here and watching them down 20 at half which certainly possible! Lol. Def understand playing iowa at the short number, I just don’t wanna! Lol
 
I’m a blue fan and shocked this line is this low for Wisky? I know 4-0 ranked vs 1-2 but how do they move the ball vs Wisky?
 
I’m a blue fan and shocked this line is this low for Wisky? I know 4-0 ranked vs 1-2 but how do they move the ball vs Wisky?

They gonna have to throw and I have no clue if they capable of that? Is wiscy gonna be able to score either? 43.5 might be too high?
 
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