B1G Week 12

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Here we are, week twelve of the season. It sure has flown by, but we say that every year. Quite a week in the conference... lets take a quick look back.


OSU mauled the Terps. Maryland was under 100 yards even early in the 4th quarter and finished with 139 to the 705 for Ohio State. There isn't too much to say here other than Ryan Day continues to roll teams, absolutely no mercy. Urban was up and down with that. This team is the best in the country and gets another layup before tougher opponents in the final 3 games.

Minnesota and Penn State was a great, great football game to watch. I gotta say, hats off the the Gophers in general. Obviously my biggest takeaway is either he had an out of body moment or I was wrong about Tanner. He was fantastic. He looked indecisive at times the few games I saw him in recently and looked like he would start throwing more picks vs solid teams. Nope, he was outstanding. Bateman is an absolute beast. I wouldn't look at this game as Penn State being over-hyped but moreso Minnesota is rapidly getting better and better. They skated through the first month or so but they get better with each passing week.

Iowa and Wisconsin was a good game that came down ultimately to a 2pt conversion. I din't see a lot of this other than quick channel flips but obviously that is JT's best game in weeks. Iowa made a furious rally in the 4th but fell just short. When it was 21-6 I honestly thought it was well over and an easy Wisconsin cover was coming but Iowa was obviously resilient. Good bounce back for the Badgers.

I dunno what happened in the Purdue n Northwestern game but right away the Cats had 14 points. They have been allergic to the end zone for over a month. Well, Purdue finally realized who they were playing I guess and came back to win it at the end. I'll let @PaintCrew discuss this game a bit more if he would oblige. I know Purdue is playing all sorts of young pups.

And, finally... Michigan State and Illinois. What we really need to concentrate on here is how awful that final drive was for Illinois. On 4th and 16 they hit a bomb on hilarious coverage by Michigan St. The time management around the goal-line, oh my. I mean there is so much more but I am sure you all saw it. In fact, in the 4th Illinois missed a PAT, squandered a RZ opportunity and then that goal to goal situation. YET, they won. You gotta feel happy for Papa Smurf and the school. This really all started in the 2nd half against Michigan with that comeback bid. That seemed to energize them and we saw what happened the next week. As far as MSU, we'll talk about that more as we get into 'Super Bowl' week.


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Alright, gonna post games then start chatting...


Umass @ Northwestern

Indiana @ Penn State

Michigan State @ Michigan

Wisconsin @ Nebraska

Ohio State @ Rutgers

Minnesota @ Iowa



Couple quick hitters...


Northwestern is -40, think about that. Is this the week the fade Umass with tt's trick comes to an end? It will be around 49 or so...

Penn State better be ready to get over last week. They can still win this conference and they best be ready or Indiana will bite them in the arse...

The Sparty SB should be interesting. For the record I said this before but will remind ya I have +14.5 here from GOY line earlier in the season. I was expecting an opener of 14 flat to be honest. Whatever the true opener was, I heard 12, was a bit surprising but obviously that got hammered right away. We'll get into this more here in awhile...

Wisconsin heads into Lincoln as almost a two-touchdown favorite. Well then. They should win, obviously but that is not my kinda sauce no matter what we have seen from this group of Huskers...

Ohio State with a 50-53 pt starting point this week seems about right. I wish I could have a mulligan in life on correlated parlays, hehe. It is 53.5/58 at Circa... lol... and I would still take the Rutgers tt under. Remember Michigan at Rutgers in 2016? Yeah, 78-0... this will be similar...lets say OSU runs so much the clock just runs out... 69-0 ...

Minnesota and Iowa is such a great match to cap. You have an Iowa team that really needs a win and we know how tough they are in Kinnick. The Gophers are off their best win in 15 years? I would say something like that. This is a fascinating game and the line indicates that on a neutral that Minny would only be favored by around 1 or so. Man... these are games that are tough. Find me an edge...

Alright ... lets talk boys n girls...
 
Ohio st 1quarter and over and TT over.....also 1half and over and TT over......can’t go worse than 3-3 with those 6 plays.....
 
I don't know how Rutgers gets a first down against Ohio State so I will probably be on the first half under in that game. Rutgers has been eating clock on offense for their three plays each drive. I mean on Saturday, I thought Ohio State played a perfect first half and Terps didn't make a single play on any of the 20 plays that one would consider key. Then I remembered the successful onside kick and realized they played better than a perfect half. That is hard to do two weeks in a row and they have made these lines insane now. They might be laying 34 first half.

Hard to imagine NW getting that many points and it is hard to imagine Umass not giving up that many points. One of the better defenses Umass has faced so there is potential for it to get real ugly just on field position.

Not sure Penn State is all that much better than Indiana. A little better sure... three scores better? eh

something is wrong with MSU. Think they get steamrolled and Michigan takes this opportunity to be the cool school again. Mich St was kind of the trendy school to be at in Michigan for a few years but I think that is changing back to the more traditional Wolverines now. A bitch slap would go a long ways for them I think.

I got nothing for wisconsin Nebraska ... Nebraska, NW, Army, Stanford, FSU, Syracuse .. seems there are more HUGELY disappointing teams than normal for one year. Nebraska probably tops the list .. maybe cuse or Army.
Seems like a lot of road pts for that offense but Nebraska is impossible to trust.

Seems like a very good match up for Iowa to me but man one team has shown they like to win and one team hasn't .. but not sure Iowa isn't the better team.
 
Eh .. I disagree. I think the schedules are vastly different, particularly on defenses played.
 
just so i don't go "why didn't i blindly fade umass and auto bet ohio state" next week i am gonna stomach those large numbers. I think it favors ohio state being on the road because they only carry so many players they will have to play the 3rd stringers instead of walkons and 4th stringers. Hopefully day doesn't take the gas off early since the feedback he got for maryland.

Nw sucks ooc as a large fav but it's umass. I haven't seen them play but I hear they go super high tempo which seems not smart. NW needs a game to get some offensive confidence. Qb actually made some good throws last week in decent coverage.

sparty - michigan seems like a tough cap. Sparty losing these spreads all season in these spots but something tells me they aren't as far off as it seems - look at the first half vs illinois. That defense is still not bad - and Michigan still can't string games together. Wouldn't be surprised with a michigan blowout or a tight game but would lean the points.

minnesota i think looks like a potential over team.
 
Day said the team is going to be aggressive in the first half always. So take that fwiw.

Was thinking this line would be closer to 60 than 50. Especially since Maryland beat rutgers by 40.
 
For all the talk this season about Michigan State having a good defense - and as someone on the over 8 RSW, I believed it too - there's certainly been a whole lotta points given up. 31 to Indiana, 37 to Wisconsin, 37 to Illinois. I get the Super Bowl/motivation angle, but at some point I just have to throw my hands in the air and say, "this team fucking sucks". I don't know how they get up off the mat after last week's debacle, given the train wreck this whole season has been. I'm laying the 14.

(Note: This has been my worst season capping Big Ten football I can ever remember, so Sparty is probably the play)
 
EFC1878 said:
For all the talk this season about Michigan State having a good defense - and as someone on the over 8 RSW, I believed it too - there's certainly been a whole lotta points given up. 31 to Indiana, 37 to Wisconsin, 37 to Illinois. I get the Super Bowl/motivation angle, but at some point I just have to throw my hands in the air and say, "this team fucking sucks". I don't know how they get up off the mat after last week's debacle, given the train wreck this whole season has been. I'm laying the 14.

(Note: This has been my worst season capping Big Ten football I can ever remember, so Sparty is probably the play)
Click to expand...

lot of points have been bad qb play throwing pick 6's and carryover from negative momentum of offense and what that will do to a defense's psyche when they realize dantonio just kept everyone on staff again. Maybe why the team hasn't had the same fight , but they haven't been dominated in the boxscore outside of wisconsin. lot of little things which add up to big thing. But they still have the pieces and talent imo to be the gritty sparty teams of old they just lack the grit this year. Which is very anti dantonio, just so much negative at that university.. Right now they are preaching this one game against michigan defines our entire season. If they stop kicking themselves in the foot, they may show up as sparty of old.
 
B.A.R. said:
Here we are, week twelve of the season. It sure has flown by, but we say that every year. Quite a week in the conference... lets take a quick look back.

I dunno what happened in the Purdue n Northwestern game but right away the Cats had 14 points. They have been allergic to the end zone for over a month. Well, Purdue finally realized who they were playing I guess and came back to win it at the end. I'll let @PaintCrew discuss this game a bit more if he would oblige. I know Purdue is playing all sorts of young pups.
Click to expand...

I'll oblige as I'm sure I was the only one on the planet with this game on the main TV.

It wasn't pretty and there definitely was some misleading aspects to the game IMO mainly the wind. The only offensive points scored against the wind came on Purdue's last second winning FG. All other points were scored downwind. NW had the wind in the 1st and 4th quarter (all 3 Touchdowns), and Purdue had it in the 2nd and 3rd (again all 3 Touchdowns).

Biggest surprise for me was NW going tempo and I do think that caught Holt off guard a bit in the first quarter. One big breakaway run with a couple missed tackles to start the game for NW (79 yard TD for McGowan). NW's second drive was impressive and really their only complete drive of the game before I felt Purdue's D (aided significantly by the wind in the 2nd and 3rd) started to limit things. NW ran the ball better than I would've expected all game though (even outside the 79 yard TD) and it was only due to Purdue's D'line finally getting in the face of Smith that their drives stalled (again along with the wind).

I was impressed with the walk-on O'Connell outside of an intentional grounding safety he took where he had ample time to get rid of it along with a couple INTs (one was tipped). Largely Purdue moved the ball pretty consistently even early but Brohm was too conservative and punted twice in NW territory in the 1st half along with an INT in the red zone. While deserved due to the Purdue mistakes (and Brohm getting a bit too conservative) I felt the 1H score was slightly misleading.

Second half Purdue largely controlled and hurt themselves again with another INT in NW territory but again I came away pleasantly surprised with the walk on surrounded by freshman everywhere. O'Connell is definitely serviceable moving forward and there is at least a little bit of life in the running game with the O'Line getting more experience.

I also came away more impressed by NW than I expected due to the tempo more than anything. I'd expect a 50 burger or so if they go at that tempo all game against UMASS.

I believe they are up to the last 19 TDs scored by freshman.

15 of the 22 total positions on the field have been started by freshman in at least one game this year.

Will be interesting to see what happens with the bye week before Wisky and IU. There are rumors that both Moore and Lorenzo Neal could be back for Wisky. Will that give Purdue a chance? Probably not as Wisky is about the worst matchup imaginable for this undersized D (Taylor should go for 200 again) but Neal sure wouldn't hurt and having Moore out there with Bell I'd think would allow Purdue to move the ball pretty efficiently.

Most importantly for betting purposes it's hard for me to see the market being able to price Purdue's 2020 RSW appropriately for next year after they finish this year 4-8. At a minimum I expect that record to flip next year with the depth being built, all the experience garnered by freshman and sophmores, and some average injury luck.
 
Either Day had it in for Maryland or he has decided he is going to have the reserves try and score as much and as often as they can. I like that attitude.

Looking forward to Iowa/Minnesota. Classic Big 10 game, especially if it snows. We know it will be cold and windy and muddy. Iowa is what they always are, big, tough guys who are always in the game and have a tight end playing QB. Stanley is a little better than the tight end they usually have, but unpredictable.

This year they are just barely failing to cover in games they usually just barely cover in, but they remain one of the most consistent teams in the FBS

And looking forward to Mich/Mich St another that will be a classic.

I love Big 10 football when it gets cold.

If the Big 10 could get some postseason games in Big country where the fast, slick southern teams had to come up and play in Michigan or Wisconsin weather we'd see some different results. Let Oklahoma or Clemson or LSU play 60 minutes with the sleet blowing and the wind howling and fans huddled in parkas and see how they do.

It will never happen, but I wish it would.
 
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TahoeLegend said:
Either Day had it in for Maryland or he has decided he is going to have the reserves try and score as much and as often as they can. I like that attitude.

Looking forward to Iowa/Minnesota. Classic Big 10 game, especially if it snows. We know it will be cold and windy and muddy. Iowa is what they always are, big, tough guys who are always in the game and have a tight end playing QB. Stanley is a little better than the tight end they usually have, but unpredictable.

This year they are just barely failing to cover in games they usually just barely cover in, but they remain one of the most consistent teams in the FBS

And looking forward to Mich/Mich St another that will be a classic.

I love Big 10 football when it gets cold.

If the Big 10 could get some postseason games in Big country where the fast, slick southern teams had to come up and play in Michigan or Wisconsin weather we'd see some different results. Let Oklahoma or Clemson or LSU play 60 minutes with the sleet blowing and the wind howling and fans huddled in parkas and see how they do.

It will never happen, but I wish it would.
Click to expand...

Supposedly, Day and Ohio State weren't happy with Locksley and his staff for "outing" the Chase Young loan from a friend. They sourced it back to Maryland. Chase Young is from Maryland. So, there might have been some extra motivation there.
 
The interesting thing here, and I have been reading about this for a few days, is that one of his teammates immediately motioned to the bench that BL needed assistance but then he got up and waved it off. I guess the question is, at least after the series is over or after the game why this was not looked at?
 
TahoeLegend said:
Either Day had it in for Maryland or he has decided he is going to have the reserves try and score as much and as often as they can. I like that attitude.

Looking forward to Iowa/Minnesota. Classic Big 10 game, especially if it snows. We know it will be cold and windy and muddy. Iowa is what they always are, big, tough guys who are always in the game and have a tight end playing QB. Stanley is a little better than the tight end they usually have, but unpredictable.

This year they are just barely failing to cover in games they usually just barely cover in, but they remain one of the most consistent teams in the FBS

And looking forward to Mich/Mich St another that will be a classic.

I love Big 10 football when it gets cold.

If the Big 10 could get some postseason games in Big country where the fast, slick southern teams had to come up and play in Michigan or Wisconsin weather we'd see some different results. Let Oklahoma or Clemson or LSU play 60 minutes with the sleet blowing and the wind howling and fans huddled in parkas and see how they do.

It will never happen, but I wish it would.
Click to expand...

Been saying this for years. Lambeau Soldier great sights for it, even NY. Want domes, then fine with DET, INDY, MINN accomodating. Still gives an edge to northern teams of having to travel south and play in heat they arent used to that time of year in geographical footprint of south/west teams.
 
It has appeared to me that they have relaxed some of the ingame concussion precautions. Didn't the refs used to pull guys out a couple years ago if they suspected it? Or maybe that was NFL. I haven't seen anybody get pulled out of a series even if they appear like they might be woozy, players are staying in if they can and refs and coaches seem to be letting them.
 
Michigan should win handily, not worried in the slightest. Cant imagine a scenario where MSU keeps this one close and even if they do early they will get overwhelmed late. As I said last week and someone said in here, Sparty calling card their D, but its not even good. So if your D stinks, your O is beyond awful, your coach is clueless and your team may have officially given up, what is the play here. M for me who seem to be getting better.

Minnesota beat PSU because of one reason. Michigan laid the blue print on how to attack them. Actually Pitt did, but Michigan was able to execute it better with more talent. PSU is soft on the corners and if you get the ball out quick their pass rush is negated. Fleck is smart and exposed them with their two big WRs. PSU still had every chance to win and couldnt capitalize, partly because they got hosed with OPI on the final drive. I went PSU/Over 2H parlay pretty large and got hosed at the end on the over. Minny tried to choke it away, but Franklin the ultimate choker. OSU should mop up that PSU secondary. Like, light them up beyond comprehension, weather permitting.

OSU another bye week, 65-0. Only reason they dont score more is PSU Mich on deck.

Nate Stanley, oh what will we get. Usually the bigger the game, the worse. Minny huge let down spot here. Minny D pillow soft. Glad they won, good to see but noting outside of Winfield on that D is scary. PSU piled up the yards but questionable play calling inside the red zone, 5 times, 6 points was the difference. Iowa cant move the ball like PSU but they wont be giving up chunk plays all day and I doubt they get behind 2 scores early. This has the makings. Sadly, because of Stanley I'd only take Iowa ML and hope they win 17-16. Minny kicker not too good and that could prove costly here.

Nothing else really matters in this conference. Wiscy laying 14+ on the road, no thanks. PSU laying 14+ to upstart IU after loss with OSU on deck,, no thanks. Last two years PSU lost to OSU and came out flat as a board against Sparty both home and away. IU ML worth a shot.
 
tee*dub said:
Very bad spot for Minny on road , letdown mode and pissed off Iowa team . Superior defense. Not close there. I’m -2.5 TU. Yes I’m still alive. Lol. Hope you are well Reno. #fistbump
Click to expand...
Right on Tee Dub! Just brought your name up last week! Welcome back!
 
@cubsker

What's the vibe been out in Lincoln this week? Towards the end of that Purdue game I didn't like what I saw out of the body language and effort of that D. Think I remember Frost talking about some individual attitude or effort issues or something related to that following the Indiana game. Has he lost this team you think?
 
s--k said:
@cubsker

What's the vibe been out in Lincoln this week? Towards the end of that Purdue game I didn't like what I saw out of the body language and effort of that D. Think I remember Frost talking about some individual attitude or effort issues or something related to that following the Indiana game. Has he lost this team you think?
Click to expand...

I dont think so. There's been a lot of talk since frost took over on getting the entire team to buy in. A large part of the roster has already been flipped. Two seniors on last year's team, one on each side of the ball, have been really missed for both their play and their leadership. The current group of upperclassmen are really lacking in the leadership dept. In hindsight, it was very telling that a grad xfer who had been around just a few months was chosen by the players as a captain.

The entire program has major mental issues that are a huge reason we are 4 and 5 instead of 7 and 2. Games against less talented teams follow a very familiar pattern. Nebraska goes ahead early, often by double digits. Nebraska has numerous chances to blow the other team out, but they fuck them up. The other team makes a comeback in the 2h. The offense finally answers putting us back ahead. The defense needs one final stop to put it away. The stop never comes.

Seen this exact scenario play out

Colorado 18 and 19
Northwestern 18
Indiana 19
Purdue 19

These are all games we should have led by at least 3 touchdowns in the first half, but did lead by double digits and still found a way to lose. You can see it in the players and the coaches when it starts to happen, its here we go again and I think at this point it's a self fulfilling prophecy.

I dont think effort is a major issue, but there are some individual plays where the effort can be questioned. The staff went out of their way to hand out two black shirts this week. One is to a true freshman, backup OLB, who is a Nebraska kid who bleeds red and just plays his ass off every play. The second is to a guy who is a walk on former navy seal who only sees the field occasionally on special teams but is an asskicker in life and off the field. So they're still trying to develop the culture necessary to win at a place like Nebraska.

The number 1 problem we have is that our LB are just terrible. We just get abused and I expect Taylor to do some bad things to us on Saturday. Number 2 problem has been Martinez. There are some rumors that he's injured and that would certainly make me feel about his performance this year. He's missed a lot of throws he shouldn't and he seems like he doesnt want to run the ball much.

I laid the 12 fwiw.
 
PaintCrew said:
I'll oblige as I'm sure I was the only one on the planet with this game on the main TV.
Click to expand...

Nope, there were at least two of us! Had my eye on Purdue from the open and made sure to jump on it immediately, rewarding me with a sweet line of -2 and a push instead of the win had I bet it at any other point of the week starting about an hour later.

I agree a great deal with your 2020 assessment. I have no idea where it'll be lined for a RSW number, or quite frankly, where it should be lined. All three non-conf games have the potential to be tricky (Air Force, Memphis, at BC), but this team is going to ooze experience all over the field.
 
tee*dub said:
Very bad spot for Minny on road , letdown mode and pissed off Iowa team . Superior defense. Not close there. I’m -2.5 TU. Yes I’m still alive. Lol. Hope you are well Reno. #fistbump
Click to expand...
Well, solidified my Iowa( what’s that safety that played that you used to call Iowa lol) lean....

Hope all is week tee
 
EFC1878 said:
Nope, there were at least two of us! Had my eye on Purdue from the open and made sure to jump on it immediately, rewarding me with a sweet line of -2 and a push instead of the win had I bet it at any other point of the week starting about an hour later.

I agree a great deal with your 2020 assessment. I have no idea where it'll be lined for a RSW number, or quite frankly, where it should be lined. All three non-conf games have the potential to be tricky (Air Force, Memphis, at BC), but this team is going to ooze experience all over the field.
Click to expand...

Appreciate this. It will definitely be interesting. By the looks up it to me the 2019 RSW was likely just one year early. It won't be easy as the schedule contains no cupcakes...tougher overall than even this year IMO.

My guess is it comes out in the 5/5.5 range given the schedule and results this year (or so is my hope).
 
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RoMoPDSho said:
Supposedly, Day and Ohio State weren't happy with Locksley and his staff for "outing" the Chase Young loan from a friend. They sourced it back to Maryland. Chase Young is from Maryland. So, there might have been some extra motivation there.
Click to expand...
One thing that Bob Stoops taught me is that when you beat the shit out of a team to make a point (77-0 as -30.5), you want to take it easy on the next opponent (41-3 as -53) so the first will understand that it *was* personal.
 
M.W. said:
One thing that Bob Stoops taught me is that when you beat the shit out of a team to make a point (77-0 as -30.5), you want to take it easy on the next opponent (41-3 as -53) so the first will understand that it *was* personal.
Click to expand...
Interesting

But, maybe the onside kick said that?

Also, so much for the 'self-reporting' lol.

Rutgers is so bad, they would have to punt on 2nd down quite a bit not to score less than 45
 
I just see a lot of short fields for OSU and their back-up rb's seem to have no problem busting out long runs even in garbage time.

I'm curious if people feel that this game is appropriately lined and if not what would be their number?
 
I think OSU is going to play Chug a lot in this game. He’s from NJ and he hasn’t got to play much this year considering the scores osu has been running up.
I know Rutgers stinks but I think 52 is too many with chug playing the whole second half, which I fully expect he will.
 
Trevor Lawrence only played one play into the 2nd Q vs Charlotte.

Conceivable that Fields could do something similar only plays 1+ quarter or about half the first half, then Chugs rest of the 2nd/3rd quarters then somebody else in the 4th. I might suspect the same for Teague. Dobbins should be done early, then Teague sits and the play the bench in the 4th...which I'm sure every RB OSU travels with can house it.
 
TT for Ohst is 57.5......Rutgers is 3.5
Think Rutgers TT over better play here?
With backups in games, turnovers high probability for Ohio st. Means short field for Butgers....
 
It isn't MSU athletics without injuries. They need them for the excuses (An Izzo favorite).

I hope Panisuik is out, that will take away the chance of career threatening cheap shots away. That kid is a certified piece of shit... one of those the roids got to him a bit.

Stewart loss is the biggest. He is a heckuva player.

The Lewerke thing is interesting because no way proper protocol was taken last week. The differing statements after as well. If this was a high profile school this would be a big story. Now, with that being said, I am sure he is good to go for this week.
 
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