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B16 Week One Discussion Thread...

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Hello all... time is flying, and we are just over two months away from the start of the season. For those that are new here, or haven't followed the threads before, we will start a weekly discussion thread for all things Big Ten each week. Generally, @HUNT and myself alternate the responsibilities each week with an occasional assist from @cubsker when needed as well. The goal is to hopefully lend some helping hands to those handicapping the league week in and week out. Occasional banter between rivals is always encouraged as well. We've been doing this for a lot of years now and I think the thread certainly adds a lot to the site as well as @gps_3 with his SEC Thread.

This initial thread will cover opening week games +anything else you would like to talk about leading up to the start of the season. Usually, I will do an open thread for the summertime, but with totals already posted I figured I would go ahead and start things a bit earlier.

Feel free to chime in regarding...

-Sides
-Totals
-RSW
-Conference Title Odds
-Injuries and suspensions
-Camp notes as we get closer


*There are no week zero games this year


Thursday, August 31st.


Minnesota -7.5 and 47.5 vs Nebraska


Friday, September 1st


Michigan State -14.5 and 52 vs Central Michigan


Saturday, September 2nd


Michigan -36 and 53 vs East Carolina

Ohio State -27.5 and 63 @ Indiana

Purdue -6 and 54.5 vs Fresno State

Rutgers -5.5 and 47 vs Northwestern

Wisconsin -23 and 55 vs Buffalo

Illinois -10.5 and 53 vs Toledo

Penn State -19.5 and 54.5 vs West Virginia

Iowa -21 and 48 vs Utah State

Maryland NL vs Towson


Odds to win the Big Ten Conference

Ohio State 160

Michigan 180

Penn State 600

Wisconsin 650

Iowa 1100

Minnesota 2800

Maryland 4000

Nebraska 5000

Illinois 5000

Michigan State 7500

Purdue 10000

Indiana 10000

Rutgers 10000

Northwestern 10000



This should be quite the interesting year in conference. As they move away from divisions, the West was just starting to make some moves to hopefully even things out a little bit...

What to watch for this year...

-How will Matt Rhule readjust to college. I hold him in high regard a this level and I think he might just be the man to get NU back to a consistently solid team. The additions of the Cali teams next year can only help recruiting for the Huskers.

-Luke Fickell was a damn good hire for the Badgers. He has come a long way from the 7-6 season in his debut at Ohio State. Now, this first year could be rocky with the offense changing a bit. The Badgers have been the same type of team for so long, this could be a bit of culture shock. Allen coming back is one nice piece to start out with. We'll see how the SMU transfer does versus competent defenses. I am a fan, but this is a different level for the most part.

-Fleck is a helluva coach, but he loses a lot of veterans. This will be his biggest challenge so far at Minnesota.

-Can Iowa show some life on offense? Will they enable Brian to cash in on some incentives? They will have a damn good defense again and now have a 'solid' game manager at QB and Erick All will fit in nicely at TE.

-This is Tuckers 4th year in East Lansing. Between recruiting and the portal, these are his guys now. The schedule is pretty tough, but he is making big boy money. Anything less than 7 wins and a bowl appearance is cause for concern.

-Who starts at QB for Ohio State? I am assuming McCord does. I always heard such great things about Devin Brown, so I am curious if he can challenge Kyle a bit? Big year for the defense against the big boy teams. Michigan and Georgia made them look silly with I believe 16 combined 'big plays'. Day is feeling heat, simply to beat Michigan. The offense is loaded as always. Can their trenches do enough in A2 and in the playoffs?

-Allar, in my book, will be a heck of a QB. He has some excellent backs to keep the early pressure off. I don't think this situation could be much better. They very well could win the East (via tiebreakers).

-The questions in A2 will come down to new kickers and who is the breakout receiver? Also, who claims the job opposite of all-American candidate Will Johnson at the corner position. Jim has his BEST Michigan team in my opinion. Can they get over the hump in the postseason? I still think PSU at Noon in November will be their biggest game of the year. Obviously, nothing compares to 'The Game', but this will be huge for who goes to the final game in Indy.

-Can Maryland start strong and STAY strong for once? They simply fade a bit every year as we get deep into the season. Good luck with Gattis. Odd hiring there.




Alright, that should get us going a bit...

I expect immediate contributions from @HUNT @PaintCrew @cubsker @s--k and whoever else would like to chime in about the B16 conference!

-
 
Don't think it will take long for Rhule to readjust, he never adjusted to the pro game in the first place

It's now top two in conference for the CCG correct?
 
KJ said:
Don't think it will take long for Rhule to readjust, he never adjusted to the pro game in the first place

It's now top two in conference for the CCG correct?
Click to expand...
That begins in 2024 with the addition of USC and UCLA.

They will go with no divisions.

There are some wild scenarios that could play out, although unlikely.

I'd assume this is a stopgap until the next set of teams joins the league in a few years.
 
Thanks BAR.

Have played Michigan Over 10.5 and OSU Under 10.5. Think Michigan only 2 potential losses are -3 @PSU and -3.5 OSU. I think they will win both and go undefeated but have 1 to lose as cushion. OSU goes to ND, Wiscy and Michigan and has PSU at home. Obviously I think they will lose 2. New QB and D still unproven vs. any offense with a pulse.

Have also played PSU +10 @ OSU. Was sitting at 9.5 and finally popped so I bit. Still waiting for Wiscy to go from 9.5 to 10 vs. OSU.

Dad went to Neb and grew up fan. I thought Frost would lead them to a NC within 3 years after what he did at UCF. Big misread for sure. Love Ruhle in CFB too and think he'll have them in T15 within a few years. I know one of new early birds here on the site is on Neb +8.

I know not B10 but played LSU +7 vs. Ala. Now +4 so good get. But again, Ala has to replace 3 T12 picks and Young specifically. And looks like QBs were not great in Spring, hence bringing in the transfer. Won't get rich betting against Saban but really thinking this is year they might fade a little more. Kind of thinking same of OSU. We'll see.

thanks again
 
My first take on week 1 without digging into rosters…will Iowa score more than 21 vs Utah St?
 
PaintCrew said:
My first take on week 1 without digging into rosters…will Iowa score more than 21 vs Utah St?
Click to expand...
With all the incentives Ferentz has to score this season in his contract I highly doubt he calls games like he has previously. If he does he hates both money and his job.
 
Could look stupid for sure but I hit Iowa pretty hard -17.5 when it came out .. Brian has that new contract amendment to hit 24 ppg this yr and clearly got a few guys to at least gear the O toward scoring more .. but I don't see a ton of spots to light up the scoreboard this year even Rutgers could make 24 pts tough .. think the obvious move and one his pops will fully green light is to get wayyyyy ahead on the PPG goal early on vs Utah St and WMU and avoid the TOTAL HOUNDING he'd get by the media and fans every week if he's even close to not hitting that .. Iowa also lost their AD so maybe new guy holds Brians feet in the fire if he doesn't hit his ppg goal .. I've heard some hawkeye folks say that its not just the small monetary incentive goal but could be used to oust him .. so yeah would make sense for the Ferentz'sses' to scheme up some points in that game, plus fans realllllllly are gunna be expecting that w Mcnamera and great TE room the OL almost all back and added the strong WR prospect from OSU (brown?) .. a real now or never situation .. I do kinda like Utah St's QB situation w Legas and even the other guy from Wyo but but they got hit hard by the grads and eaten alive by the portal lot of their best stuff is gone .. idk hope its a good read .
 
^^^
All that said there is sortof an elephant in the room with the Iowa gambling scandal and yeah that is a legit concern .. even if the HAMMER isin't brought down we could see some guys missing a game and the game they'd miss would be the first one .. even still I think it would reallllly have to be a high concentration of starters getting suspended but for sure I'm xx'ing my fingers a little bit because of that ..
 
cubsker said:
What do they have at WR? I know Johnson left. All and Lachay at TE is pretty decent.
Click to expand...
They got a dude from OSU xfer in Kaleb Brown .. Bucks podcaster guys weren't happy w him leaving they had pegged him as a future stud for em, had HS offers from Bama and other big spots .. also have Nico Reggani back who was hit and miss w injuries LY along w a bunch of others .. very shallow room but have 2 likely capable guys .. also sounds like Macnamera is full go for summer workouts after limited in spring which has to be a huge relief for hawkeye fans lol ..
 
Pressure is on now to get the SEC thread up and running. I'll see what I can do. Great stuff already in this thread. Week 0 will be here before we know it
 
The MSU line looks light vs CMU. Chips are awful and Tucker has to make a statement the first two weeks. The Spartan front 7 on D might actually be good? Don’t see Mel taking his foot off the gas. Missed the 14 upon open, but bet this closes closer to 17-18. CMU is going to be very bad
 
satnightfever05 said:
The MSU line looks light vs CMU. Chips are awful and Tucker has to make a statement the first two weeks. The Spartan front 7 on D might actually be good? Don’t see Mel taking his foot off the gas. Missed the 14 upon open, but bet this closes closer to 17-18. CMU is going to be very bad
Click to expand...
Sparty trenches should be the bright spots...

QB
RB
WR

Huge questions, as of now.

New secondary 'teaching' can only help?
 
B.A.R. said:
Sparty trenches should be the bright spots...

QB
RB
WR

Huge questions, as of now.

New secondary 'teaching' can only help?
Click to expand...
I hit it CMU ML/Under 53.5 .. ~10-1 .. Hard to gauge if Kim is a legit replacement QB .. no real spring game, maybe he actually pushed Thorne out .. if not then it seems like MSU is really .. and I mean REALLLLLY .. just wingin it at QB this year .. Keon leaving didn't support the Kim is good narrative .. I'm not sayin CMU will be good but 2 QB's both good runners and I don't think we can judge their pass game yet, I will say Mcilwain can put a run game together with the right tools .. Bert Immanuel Jr looks like a real good wildcat QB .. Not touching the side, I lean under for sure doubt I'll play it but not expecting mass explosions in the pass game here .. Wouldn't surprise anyone if CMU is still scrappin in Q4 the way W.Mich was LY.. very misleading final score in that one ..
 
Oh yeah and MSU's secondary was so bad they even made their good run D bad in quite a few games .. I don't think we can make the case of them better w their new secondary they lose a couple of their best guys and a few depth guys.. inexperienced starters and most backups have none so idk maybe its actually a good thing, we'll see ..
 
Bridge1 said:
Oh yeah and MSU's secondary was so bad they even made their good run D bad in quite a few games .. I don't think we can make the case of them better w their new secondary they lose a couple of their best guys and a few depth guys.. inexperienced starters and most backups have none so idk maybe its actually a good thing, we'll see ..
Click to expand...
It will take seeing it to believe it for me to take an under in an MSU game even if the CMU passing game leaves a bunch to be desired. The MSU secondary might well make them look competent and may well offer an under opportunity up the next week.
 
ha yeah KJ I hear ya .. they do have 100% of their interception production back .. that one guy had the one pick .. and that other guy had the other pick .. lol ..
think the main key to CMU's upset chances is MSU's offense stinking .. but yeah it would stink worse to call a huge CMU upset and the total busts me they win like 42-21 or something ..
 
Bridge1 said:
I hit it CMU ML/Under 53.5 .. ~10-1 .. Hard to gauge if Kim is a legit replacement QB .. no real spring game, maybe he actually pushed Thorne out .. if not then it seems like MSU is really .. and I mean REALLLLLY .. just wingin it at QB this year .. Keon leaving didn't support the Kim is good narrative .. I'm not sayin CMU will be good but 2 QB's both good runners and I don't think we can judge their pass game yet, I will say Mcilwain can put a run game together with the right tools .. Bert Immanuel Jr looks like a real good wildcat QB .. Not touching the side, I lean under for sure doubt I'll play it but not expecting mass explosions in the pass game here .. Wouldn't surprise anyone if CMU is still scrappin in Q4 the way W.Mich was LY.. very misleading final score in that one ..
Click to expand...

To your last point, that was definitely a mis-leading final last year vs WMU...

Strange game, WMU had like a 37-23 t.o.p in the game...

28-13 and MSU tacked one on late after WMU gave up ball in their own territory with 4 mins or so left...

As far as the QB situation goes -- I don't think Kim went out there and "won" the job. I would say it was close and the staff basically said this was an open competition. That is probably why Thorne left. Who knows? Tough to get accurate info on MSU forums because everyone is voicing their opinion as truth. The beat writers all have varying opinions as well. The last I saw with Coleman is that he had planned this all along -- go back south the year prior to entering the NFL.

Who knows?

I appreciate your thoughts here. I have scoured the MSU forums, and as usual, there is A LOT of kool-aid being drank by 75% of the posters (and moreso the writers). I know this is standard for most teams on fan sites and with local writers but I would add that MSU hypes themselves a bit higher than most. There is the segment of posters that I have read that are pretty reasonable.

Capping-wise, I want to get as much solid info as possible. Fan-wise, I hope they go about 3-9 ;).

Their OL has been an issue for so long between bad recruiting and injuries, that anything that is average or better this season will be a helluva improvement. So, going back to my trenches comment, that is where I see this team having their strengths. Now. does that help running the ball and with play-action with mediocre talent at the skill positions? Proibably not.

We'll see though, Tuckers has mostly his guys now (big philosophy change from Dantoni + Mark left the cupboard pretty bare) so they should start producing. I guess I'd expect to see some younger unknown guys stepping up.

We'll see.

This particular first game is the now traditional Friday Night opener at Spartan Stadium (although they opened at NW a few years ago)... usually a pretty good crowd before people take off for Holiday weekend plans...

On the "under" part of your bet -- With CMU running and MSU trying to establish the run (one would think) plus the new clock rules this reeks of a 31-16 kind of game?
 
Couple of UM thoughts....

Jim has said that the goal is to be 50/50 passing to rushing. He is a funny guy. I do think they will pass MUCH more than last season. In fact, there is no doubt in my mind, but I think 47-53 is a more realistic goal.

You guys will see A LOT of Don Edwards out of the backfield catching passes. He is just that good, and frankly needs/wants the touches. We all saw his hand injuries at the end of the season but apparently, he had something more serious for about half the season. He had a partially torn patella tendon that required surgery this past March. This injury occurred in Week 2 versus Hawaii.

So, Edwards with 2 screws in his hand and a broken thumb + a partially torn patellas tendon tuned up OSU for 200+ yards.

The Don....

A healthy Edwards can easily go for 1500+ combined this year.

The OL competition will be fierce this August. They basically can have two starting lines going into the season, there is that much depth. The grad transfers are only going to help. I don't see them winning a 3rd Joe Moore in a row. The postseason play both years was less than stellar, but that is fine, they could be better than any previous edition.

Everything I am reading is that Will Johnson should be fully ready to go by the start of the season. Admittedly, that has been a personal concern for months. This guy is an absolute stud, and likely the very best since Chuck (that is impressive when you think about it). They'll need him as healthy as possible with the other corner spot still in limbo.
 
Bridge1 said:
Oh yeah and MSU's secondary was so bad they even made their good run D bad in quite a few games .. I don't think we can make the case of them better w their new secondary they lose a couple of their best guys and a few depth guys.. inexperienced starters and most backups have none so idk maybe its actually a good thing, we'll see ..
Click to expand...
Secondary big question mark for sure. It’s been bad since Mel took over.

That said- msu couldn’t even tackle in practice post Michigan game due to the suspensions and injuries

Unclear if CMU will be even quasi competent this year. Play might be more anti CMU than pro MSU
 
satnightfever05 said:
Secondary big question mark for sure. It’s been bad since Mel took over.

That said- msu couldn’t even tackle in practice post Michigan game due to the suspensions and injuries

Unclear if CMU will be even quasi competent this year. Play might be more anti CMU than pro MSU
Click to expand...
Yeah good point post suspensions its pretty much survival mode, no tackling leads to bad tackling makes sense .. Still you see Rutgers avg 250yds they put up 460 on em.. been a while since they did that in the B10 besides covid year .. w Mel and Hazelton they shouldn't be incompetent at anything, shouldn't be losing control of their players fighting etc .. Guessing Mel knew OC Jay Johnson from UGA brought him to Colo and MSU I doubt he was ever anyone's top OC pick .. Even if we assume they aren't totally wingin it w Kim (possible) is Houser a credible backup or is this a 5 reactor meltdown just waiting to happen if Kim gets injured?.. idk but plenty of coaching money, B1G time resources, big NIL co-op .. Something just ain't right over there ..
IDK if CMU will have a roster to beat these guys but think we can count on Mcilwain to get the best out of it and he's got 2 QB's to work with albeit there's plenty of questions .. MSU has their act together they should blow the doors off .. just think decently wide range of outcomes here ..
 
Bridge1 said:
Yeah good point post suspensions its pretty much survival mode, no tackling leads to bad tackling makes sense .. Still you see Rutgers avg 250yds they put up 460 on em.. been a while since they did that in the B10 besides covid year .. w Mel and Hazelton they shouldn't be incompetent at anything, shouldn't be losing control of their players fighting etc .. Guessing Mel knew OC Jay Johnson from UGA brought him to Colo and MSU I doubt he was ever anyone's top OC pick .. Even if we assume they aren't totally wingin it w Kim (possible) is Houser a credible backup or is this a 5 reactor meltdown just waiting to happen if Kim gets injured?.. idk but plenty of coaching money, B1G time resources, big NIL co-op .. Something just ain't right over there ..
IDK if CMU will have a roster to beat these guys but think we can count on Mcilwain to get the best out of it and he's got 2 QB's to work with albeit there's plenty of questions .. MSU has their act together they should blow the doors off .. just think decently wide range of outcomes here ..
Click to expand...
What's great is all of this has basically talked me out of betting on any of it. Seems like a bunch of wild cards.
 
Nebraska is my big 10 best play. You can make a case they are looking ahead but its week 1 after all that off season training.

They going to Colorado in week 2 looking real good
 
spottie2935 said:
Nebraska is my big 10 best play. You can make a case they are looking ahead but its week 1 after all that off season training.

They going to Colorado in week 2 looking real good
Click to expand...
Hoping to fade CU early and often until public wakes up that this roster is insanely depleted
 
satnightfever05 said:
Hoping to fade CU early and often until public wakes up that this roster is insanely depleted
Click to expand...
I'm fading Nebraska and Colorado early on

Not a fun game when both teams are on the fade list

Huskers are everyone's babies this season, I'm not remotely positive on that position
 
survive&advance said:
hate to say it but im on Iowa over 7.5 rsw and +250 to win the west division
Click to expand...
What's your juice on the 7.5?

Looking at the schedule, I like them to get 8 wins and maybe 9.

I see the scenario they have 7 with Illinois and Nebraska left.

Another scenario I see is Rutgers being that 8th win.

This one is on my radar.
 
survive&advance said:
very good special teams too. we know what Cade is at QB and while he's not a great talent he should be a considerable upgrade over Petras/Padilla
Click to expand...
Cade is solid.

I wouldn't judge anything last year as to how he will do this year, just noting.

He's a gamer. He generally won't make mistakes and has a shiftiness about him in the pocket (unless playing a big time D like Georgia).

He'll be out to prove many wrong as well.
 
I will be on Colorado in weeks 1 and 2

In week 1 they qualify here

D and week = 1 and PRSW < 3 and season > 2008 and line <= 30 and o : PRSW > 5 and division! = FCS and n : H

the above query is
ATS:26-8-0 ATS (76.5%) for week 1 games

A week 1 dog with a line of +30 or less that won less than 3 games. Their opponent won more than 5 games. This excludes FCS dog games. Since 2008. The dogs next game is home.

Colorado has a tougher schedule ahead and this will be their problem. TCU has their own off-season issues but i have seen a few podcasts with their team professional followers and TCU has had off season departures but most of this on defense. According to the spokes people they have a new QB that they have confidence in. They should be confident. The line is +19 or so.

I have submitted my bets on Colorado :

+21.5 Vs TCU and +8.5 vs Nebraska.

I also bet Nebraska +8.5 in week 1 vs Minny.
 
spottie2935 said:
Nebraska is my big 10 best play. You can make a case they are looking ahead but its week 1 after all that off season training.

They going to Colorado in week 2 looking real good
Click to expand...
Rhule got off to really slow starts his first year at Temple and his first year at Baylor. I'm going to fade Nebraska here.
 
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Weeks 1-3. Lost to an FCS team in opener at Baylor; lost to an FCS team game 2 at Temple.
 
M.W. said:
Rhule got off to really slow starts his first year at Temple and his first year at Baylor. I'm going to fade Nebraska here.
Click to expand...
He's a very good coach but the amount of love out there for them this season seems like people think he's Knute Rockne
 
spottie2935 said:
I will be on Colorado in weeks 1 and 2

In week 1 they qualify here

D and week = 1 and PRSW < 3 and season > 2008 and line <= 30 and o : PRSW > 5 and division! = FCS and n : H

the above query is
ATS:26-8-0 ATS (76.5%) for week 1 games

A week 1 dog with a line of +30 or less that won less than 3 games. Their opponent won more than 5 games. This excludes FCS dog games. Since 2008. The dogs next game is home.

Colorado has a tougher schedule ahead and this will be their problem. TCU has their own off-season issues but i have seen a few podcasts with their team professional followers and TCU has had off season departures but most of this on defense. According to the spokes people they have a new QB that they have confidence in. They should be confident. The line is +19 or so.

I have submitted my bets on Colorado :

+21.5 Vs TCU and +8.5 vs Nebraska.

I also bet Nebraska +8.5 in week 1 vs Minny.
Click to expand...
CU has like 50 scholarship players and who knows how long Deon will be in the hospital for.

This is basically an FCS team. Even with the tcu departures, they should be able to name their score
 
B.A.R. said:
What's your juice on the 7.5?

Looking at the schedule, I like them to get 8 wins and maybe 9.

I see the scenario they have 7 with Illinois and Nebraska left.

Another scenario I see is Rutgers being that 8th win.

This one is on my radar.
Click to expand...
-170. which definitely gave me pause, -150 or lower would've been an easy play IMO
 
satnightfever05 said:
CU has like 50 scholarship players and who knows how long Deon will be in the hospital for.

This is basically an FCS team. Even with the tcu departures, they should be able to name their score
Click to expand...
I got that from your first post. I appreciate your out of the box thinking. We are on different sides of the market on this game. I appreciate this.
This is a fun game for a week 1 game !

I personally think the lines maker has set the too high here base upon last years team with 0 athletes. This CU team has a long way to go but at least in a few positions they have a few guys that can and will play at high levels.

CU needs ballers on both lines and that is the scariest part for me.

I appreciate all thought I just am opposite. I'd love to see a CU upset here! I think its a close miss on the money line. CU +21.5 I love.

As far as Deion's health there is no breaking news released from the doctors that are concerned about a critical situation Actually very little news at all. Things could change but until they break something I assume everything is just maintenance and precautionary.

Either way best wishes just one game of many on the season.:shake:
 
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