The one thing about CFB, it flies by so quickly. I feel like we were just prepping for week zero, and here we are fully into the conference season.
Here is my hot takes on the conference after a month of play...
-I stick by my prediction that the East (and eventual playoff participant) comes down to a tiebreaker. We are going to see a very good B16 team not able to make their case in the playoffs.
-Penn State is very good, their downfall can only be their coach. We know that is a possibility.
-Michigan has had an uneven start, but they will get better and better leading up to the game in Happy Valley.
-Michigan State was a 5-6 win team before the year. Now? They might only win 4 games or so. I think you'll see the portal getting active this week.
-Iowa is the same as they always have been. They'll still win 9 games or so.
-Cade McNamara is hurt and gutting it out. That being said, he isn't much of a QB without a great line and really good backs. Cockiness only goes so far.
-Egbuka is the key offensive player for Ohio State
-Wisconsin will improve each month. Stick to the run, that is where your best players are at.
-Nebraska will be like last year, a tough out in conference. I expect a few heartbreaking losses again.
-Minnesota and Northwestern offenses woke up last week. I am not sure whether to scrape that from my mind or not?
-PJ Fleck aura has worn off. He's Matt Campbell, right?
-Rutgers is well coached, and a damn good team. They will provide an upset down the line.
-Indiana is piss poor, as we thought.
-Maryland doing what they do in the first half of the season. We still expect the swoon.
-The Purdue rebuild will take awhile
Okay, some quick thoughts on last week..
Ohio State stole a road win. Now, I think they played better in the 1st half. I'll be honest, the horrible play call on 4th and 1 by the Irish early in the 3rd quarter coupled with the subsequent long tuddy by OSU made me think this one was going Ohio States way. What happened? Notre Dame started running up the gut again. Then they sprinkled in the pass. Remember this for the two big games later in the year. Fun, old-style game.
Michigan gave up the early long TD, then dug in. Well, they seemed to have trouble with Gavin the next few possessions but acquitted themselves nicely on defense the rest of the way. On offense, they took what the defense gave them. This wasn't pretty, but we that isn't a surprise versus Rutgers. Michigan was able to get a few bodies back in the secondary. They were rusty early but will round into form.
Michigan State was pretty even in yardage but couldn't value the ball whatsoever. Maryland is a veteran team and took advantage of the miscues and cruised to a win.
Penn State dominated. At one point early in the 4th, the first downs were 26-2 and I believe PSU had ran 3x as many plays. Just a dominant performance. As predicted, Allar is him. Guy is good.
While we all were glued to ND-OSU and PSU-IOWA.... the late-night games in Evanston and Bloomington both had fantastic finishes +OT. Some actual excitement from three very boring teams. Fleck messed up, from what I saw flipping around.
Nebraska yardage was near even entering halftime. They won the 2nd half, but still almost allowed 300 in the air to La Tech. Huskers with over 300 on the ground, QB 1 had 157 including a 72-yard scamper on 18 carries.
I totally missed the Friday nighter... but I know Wisky started fast and ran the ball well...
.
This week -- full slate of conference games -- almost
Rutgers hosts Wagner -- NL yet.
Minnesota hosts UL-Lafayette as 10 point favorites. No clue here, as ULL is a bit foreign to myself this year.
Maryland hosts Indiana, laying 14.5 points. These are the games that Maryland needs to win easily. I would expect as much here. Now, Ohio State is on deck. So, this game might be a bit of a letdown for them. Beware of the lookahead.
Penn State heads back to the state of Illinois for the 2nd time in 3 weeks to meet a terrible N'Western team, off an OT win. This line is 26.5 for a reason. Penn State should route them. The Lions have a BYE then host Umass after this. We're in pure exhibition weeks until the 21st when they face the Buckeyes.
Purdue hosts Illinois and are laying 1.5. Man, how these teams have fallen. Illinois should have been in the conference championship game last year, blew it, and let Purdue in. Now, these teams are battling for a much-needed conference win!
Iowa heads back home to host the beleaguered Spartans. Iowa, with their stone age offense, are laying DD's. The total of 36.5 both reflects the running clock and the struggle these offenses will have. Let us keep an eye on possible MSU portal guys this week. Big loss with Windom out for the year as well.
Lastly, Michigan makes their maiden road voyage this year to Lincoln. The current line is 18/41. The side is pretty close to the off-season line, while that total certainly would have been higher before the season started. Michigan will only play two home games till Ohio State starting with this week. Road Warriors they shall be. With the commitment to the run, UM likely missing Mason Graham again will be interesting. We had a classic two years ago in this spot. I doubt this one is as much fun, but methinks this is a game for a half. This feels like UM's games at Iowa and Indiana last year. I'm just not sure which 2nd half to expect.
On a personal note, I was supposed to be watching this game at Circa with Mr Nebraska himself. I cannot make it, unfortunately. That would have been fun. Next time...
I'll be honest, I hate the B16 betting card this week and likely will have nothing pregame. Things can change, but I think I'll stalk a few situations 'live'.
------------------------------------------------------------
I've noticed a lot of media talking points about the clock rules having little effect and whatnot. To be honest, it feels like the narrative is forced a bit by their superiors. I keep hearing that it's only a few plays... time of game shortening has ranged from 4-6 minutes total
In the B16, through 4 weeks, we have 10 teams below last year's pace, while 4 are above...
Penn State +8.7
Wisconsin +5.6
Illinois +3.9
Northwestern +3.7
Indiana -17.8
Michigan -12.7
Maryland -8.2
Nebraska -8.0
Iowa -5.4
Rutgers -4.0
Ohio State -4.0
Purdue -3.8
N'Western -3.7
Illinois -3.9
Not our conference, but a few notables from the P12...
California +17.6
Colorado + 13.8
Wazzou + 6.2
Washington -11.0
USC -9.7
Utah -8.0
UCLA -6.1
69 teams last year averaged 70+ plays
54 teams this year averaged 70+ plays
1 team last year averaged under 60 plays
17 teams this year average under 60 plays
23 teams averaged under 20 ppg last year
34 teams average under 20 ppg this year
11 teams last year averaged under 300 yards per game
26 teams this year are averaging under 300 yards per game
*Just some interesting stuff. to my eyes.
Here is my hot takes on the conference after a month of play...
-I stick by my prediction that the East (and eventual playoff participant) comes down to a tiebreaker. We are going to see a very good B16 team not able to make their case in the playoffs.
-Penn State is very good, their downfall can only be their coach. We know that is a possibility.
-Michigan has had an uneven start, but they will get better and better leading up to the game in Happy Valley.
-Michigan State was a 5-6 win team before the year. Now? They might only win 4 games or so. I think you'll see the portal getting active this week.
-Iowa is the same as they always have been. They'll still win 9 games or so.
-Cade McNamara is hurt and gutting it out. That being said, he isn't much of a QB without a great line and really good backs. Cockiness only goes so far.
-Egbuka is the key offensive player for Ohio State
-Wisconsin will improve each month. Stick to the run, that is where your best players are at.
-Nebraska will be like last year, a tough out in conference. I expect a few heartbreaking losses again.
-Minnesota and Northwestern offenses woke up last week. I am not sure whether to scrape that from my mind or not?
-PJ Fleck aura has worn off. He's Matt Campbell, right?
-Rutgers is well coached, and a damn good team. They will provide an upset down the line.
-Indiana is piss poor, as we thought.
-Maryland doing what they do in the first half of the season. We still expect the swoon.
-The Purdue rebuild will take awhile
Okay, some quick thoughts on last week..
Ohio State stole a road win. Now, I think they played better in the 1st half. I'll be honest, the horrible play call on 4th and 1 by the Irish early in the 3rd quarter coupled with the subsequent long tuddy by OSU made me think this one was going Ohio States way. What happened? Notre Dame started running up the gut again. Then they sprinkled in the pass. Remember this for the two big games later in the year. Fun, old-style game.
Michigan gave up the early long TD, then dug in. Well, they seemed to have trouble with Gavin the next few possessions but acquitted themselves nicely on defense the rest of the way. On offense, they took what the defense gave them. This wasn't pretty, but we that isn't a surprise versus Rutgers. Michigan was able to get a few bodies back in the secondary. They were rusty early but will round into form.
Michigan State was pretty even in yardage but couldn't value the ball whatsoever. Maryland is a veteran team and took advantage of the miscues and cruised to a win.
Penn State dominated. At one point early in the 4th, the first downs were 26-2 and I believe PSU had ran 3x as many plays. Just a dominant performance. As predicted, Allar is him. Guy is good.
While we all were glued to ND-OSU and PSU-IOWA.... the late-night games in Evanston and Bloomington both had fantastic finishes +OT. Some actual excitement from three very boring teams. Fleck messed up, from what I saw flipping around.
Nebraska yardage was near even entering halftime. They won the 2nd half, but still almost allowed 300 in the air to La Tech. Huskers with over 300 on the ground, QB 1 had 157 including a 72-yard scamper on 18 carries.
I totally missed the Friday nighter... but I know Wisky started fast and ran the ball well...
.
This week -- full slate of conference games -- almost
Rutgers hosts Wagner -- NL yet.
Minnesota hosts UL-Lafayette as 10 point favorites. No clue here, as ULL is a bit foreign to myself this year.
Maryland hosts Indiana, laying 14.5 points. These are the games that Maryland needs to win easily. I would expect as much here. Now, Ohio State is on deck. So, this game might be a bit of a letdown for them. Beware of the lookahead.
Penn State heads back to the state of Illinois for the 2nd time in 3 weeks to meet a terrible N'Western team, off an OT win. This line is 26.5 for a reason. Penn State should route them. The Lions have a BYE then host Umass after this. We're in pure exhibition weeks until the 21st when they face the Buckeyes.
Purdue hosts Illinois and are laying 1.5. Man, how these teams have fallen. Illinois should have been in the conference championship game last year, blew it, and let Purdue in. Now, these teams are battling for a much-needed conference win!
Iowa heads back home to host the beleaguered Spartans. Iowa, with their stone age offense, are laying DD's. The total of 36.5 both reflects the running clock and the struggle these offenses will have. Let us keep an eye on possible MSU portal guys this week. Big loss with Windom out for the year as well.
Lastly, Michigan makes their maiden road voyage this year to Lincoln. The current line is 18/41. The side is pretty close to the off-season line, while that total certainly would have been higher before the season started. Michigan will only play two home games till Ohio State starting with this week. Road Warriors they shall be. With the commitment to the run, UM likely missing Mason Graham again will be interesting. We had a classic two years ago in this spot. I doubt this one is as much fun, but methinks this is a game for a half. This feels like UM's games at Iowa and Indiana last year. I'm just not sure which 2nd half to expect.
On a personal note, I was supposed to be watching this game at Circa with Mr Nebraska himself. I cannot make it, unfortunately. That would have been fun. Next time...
I'll be honest, I hate the B16 betting card this week and likely will have nothing pregame. Things can change, but I think I'll stalk a few situations 'live'.
------------------------------------------------------------
I've noticed a lot of media talking points about the clock rules having little effect and whatnot. To be honest, it feels like the narrative is forced a bit by their superiors. I keep hearing that it's only a few plays... time of game shortening has ranged from 4-6 minutes total
In the B16, through 4 weeks, we have 10 teams below last year's pace, while 4 are above...
Penn State +8.7
Wisconsin +5.6
Illinois +3.9
Northwestern +3.7
Indiana -17.8
Michigan -12.7
Maryland -8.2
Nebraska -8.0
Iowa -5.4
Rutgers -4.0
Ohio State -4.0
Purdue -3.8
N'Western -3.7
Illinois -3.9
Not our conference, but a few notables from the P12...
California +17.6
Colorado + 13.8
Wazzou + 6.2
Washington -11.0
USC -9.7
Utah -8.0
UCLA -6.1
69 teams last year averaged 70+ plays
54 teams this year averaged 70+ plays
1 team last year averaged under 60 plays
17 teams this year average under 60 plays
23 teams averaged under 20 ppg last year
34 teams average under 20 ppg this year
11 teams last year averaged under 300 yards per game
26 teams this year are averaging under 300 yards per game
*Just some interesting stuff. to my eyes.
