AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

From GolfBet:

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (30.4%), Birdie or better gained (18.6%), SG: Putting Poa and fast (17.8%), Course History (17%) and Short Par 72 (16.5%).
  1. Dustin Johnson (+400)
  2. Daniel Berger (+2000)
  3. Kevin Streelman (+5500)
  4. Brian Harman (+7000)
  5. Russell Knox (+8000)
  6. Harold Varner III (+9000)
  7. Matthew NeSmith (+10000)
  8. Patrick Cantlay (+1000)
  9. Doug Ghim (+9000)
  10. Jordan Spieth (+3000)
 
DJ pulls out:

  • ESPN
Coming off his victory at the Saudi International, world No. 1 Dustin Johnson has withdrawn from this week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. No reason was given.

Johnson's withdrawal leaves the field without a top-10 player and only three in the top 20.

Johnson has won at Pebble Beach twice and come in second two more times.
 
A couple of the shortest tracks on the tour for this week. The big bombers don't hold any advantage on these two courses...someone dialed in with the irons and a hot putter on fast, bumpy greens has a real chance of taking it down.

Starting off with a pair of top 20 bets as the odds get adjusted for the Johnson pull out (hehehe)

Top 20 Finish -- Grayson Murray +800

Top 20 Finish -- Nate Lashley +650
 
Other matchups
Willy Z -115 over Day
Stallings -105 over Ghim

I also added Frankie 100-1 for the Masters & 80-1 for the Open. Maybe i forgot that it's 2021 and not 2019 but feels like I have to grab him now as I think he's got a shot to return to from with back to back T10's (and a closing 66 on a tough sunday at the Farmers).
 
PaintCrew said:
Other matchups
Willy Z -115 over Day
Stallings -105 over Ghim

I also added Frankie 100-1 for the Masters & 80-1 for the Open. Maybe i forgot that it's 2021 and not 2019 but feels like I have to grab him now as I think he's got a shot to return to from with back to back T10's (and a closing 66 on a tough sunday at the Farmers).
Click to expand...

It isn't a bad idea(on Moli).

Grabbed Gary at 85-1 for US Open myself.
 
Interesting week here...

Obviously pace will be MUCH better...

As Chip said, short tracks so this plays a bit differently...
 
pressitup said:
not a fan of Jordan
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Nah my feeling on Spieth just is unchanged from before the WM to after given he still was the same off the tee (i believe nearly dead last in the field strokes gained) as he was before the tourney. Just a belief that there's an edge that he shouldn't bump up in H2H's matched up vs the likes of Rory Sabbatini (last week) to Molinari/Berger/Cantlay this week. His Sunday looked exactly like the Spieth of the last 3 years so not sure why anything would change moving forward (granted it could). I'm betting I have an edge with the big leap (the guy went from 150-1 to 25-1 this week) when I don't think the golfer himself is making any leaps.
 
PaintCrew said:
Nah my feeling on Spieth just is unchanged from before the WM to after given he still was the same off the tee (i believe nearly dead last in the field strokes gained) as he was before the tourney. Just a belief that there's an edge that he shouldn't bump up in H2H's matched up vs the likes of Rory Sabbatini (last week) to Molinari/Berger/Cantlay this week. His Sunday looked exactly like the Spieth of the last 3 years so not sure why anything would change moving forward (granted it could). I'm betting I have an edge with the big leap (the guy went from 150-1 to 25-1 this week) when I don't think the golfer himself is making any leaps.
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I agree, I'm a trend guy. I saw a trend
 
B.A.R. said:
He always has a chance here since the rough is plenty playable.
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took top 10, not like I'm immune to losing money.
I miss the days of Phil Harris falling asleep on the couch on 17.
I got a liquor delivery tomorrow and Minnesota is moving to north Texas today.
OLd man aint going out for shit. Gives me something to watch.
 
Should be chaotic with the chilly temps, some wind and rain... as such:

To Miss the Cut -- NeSmith +140
To MIss the Cut -- Hahn +140
..value plays on guys who had decent weeks in Scottsdale and may not be as fired up to battle through the elements this weekend.

72 Hole Group Bet

Matt Jones ov Burns/C. Davis/Rickie/Tringale +450
..Jones likes the course (2 top-10's; T-11; three top-30's in the past 10yrs); he's a good scrambler and putter.

Round 1 3-ball

Homa ov Casey/Phil +200

Rd1 Matchups

Homa ov Casey
..inflated prices on Casey as one of the pre-tourney favorites

Bo Hoag ov HV3 +105
..nice short game for Bo and if the rain comes and softens the dancefloor, his irons should give him some birdie opps.
 
Should be chaotic with the chilly temps, some wind and rain... as such:

To Miss the Cut -- NeSmith +140
To MIss the Cut -- Hahn +140
..value plays on guys who had decent weeks in Scottsdale and may not be as fired up to battle through the elements this weekend.

72 Hole Group Bet

Matt Jones ov Burns/C. Davis/Rickie/Tringale +450
..Jones likes the course (2 top-10's; T-11; three top-30's in the past 10yrs); he's a good scrambler and putter.

Round 1 3-ball

Homa ov Casey/Phil +200

Rd1 Matchups

Homa ov Casey
..inflated prices on Casey as one of the pre-tourney favorites

Bo Hoag ov HV3 +105
..nice short game for Bo and if the rain comes and softens the dancefloor, his irons should give him some birdie opps.
 
chipnotized said:
Should be chaotic with the chilly temps, some wind and rain... as such:

To Miss the Cut -- NeSmith +140
To MIss the Cut -- Hahn +140
..value plays on guys who had decent weeks in Scottsdale and may not be as fired up to battle through the elements this weekend.

72 Hole Group Bet

Matt Jones ov Burns/C. Davis/Rickie/Tringale +450
..Jones likes the course (2 top-10's; T-11; three top-30's in the past 10yrs); he's a good scrambler and putter.

Round 1 3-ball

Homa ov Casey/Phil +200

Rd1 Matchups

Homa ov Casey
..inflated prices on Casey as one of the pre-tourney favorites

Bo Hoag ov HV3 +105
..nice short game for Bo and if the rain comes and softens the dancefloor, his irons should give him some birdie opps.
Click to expand...

Nesmith looks like shit early....
 
Anyone jumping in after round 2 on tourney bets? Spieth blows it right?

looking at Molinari 50-1 but he would need some help
 
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Round 3 3-balls

Troy Merritt ov V. Taylor/Stallings +240
..best SG App data for Pebble of the three

Knox ov Stuard/McNealy +150
..irons working very nicely for Knox and he should be used to any chilly and windy oceanside conditions

Gordon ov Bhatia/Day +200
..simply a fade play of the youngster not having weekend experience and Day's shaky iron play catching up to him. Gordon's flat stick has let him down so far at Pebble, but that's the easiest part to 'fix'
 
Had Berger over Speith in 3rd round......what a way to lose.... Berger probably -800 standing on 16 tee
 
Looks like I might be tipping my cap to Spieth tomorrow finally. Been a fun long run fading him in matchups. He probably deserved some old Spieth hole out type luck.

will be fun to watch him try to close it out tomorrow
 
PaintCrew said:
Looks like I might be tipping my cap to Spieth tomorrow finally. Been a fun long run fading him in matchups. He probably deserved some old Spieth hole out type luck.

will be fun to watch him try to close it out tomorrow
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It will be interesting for sure since he’s got 3 shots on the field. You’d think a round under par would take it for him but he’s certainly capable of hitting 0 fairways and just being terrible. Course should be scorable tomorrow
 
The weather I'm seeing is 16 MPH winds with gusts to 22. I'm taking Cantlay +350.
Also put some on Casey, and a little on Knox. Both are 12/1.
Spieth's grouping could be hitting it all over the yard on Sunday.
Would like to see Casey have a final round like he did up the road at Harding Park.
 
I threw a dart at Homa at 40-1.
Anyone back to -8 or so is in range IMO today and I expect at least on in that mix to contend. Hope to have grabbed the right one
 
PaintCrew said:
I threw a dart at Homa at 40-1.
Anyone back to -8 or so is in range IMO today and I expect at least on in that mix to contend. Hope to have grabbed the right one
Click to expand...
Tossed a couple darts myself with an eye on the cash-out option if a run is made:

Streelman at 80-1
Wilkinson at 750-1
 
Final round 3-balls

N. Taylor ov Leboida/Steele +140

Hossler ov Davis/Percy +220

Wilkinson ov Lewis/Stallings +240

Dufner ov Hoffman/Bhatia +210

Stuard ov Day/McNealy +250
 
Home game for Mav and those 2 shots on 18 were big time. Kid is a great player, could jumpstart his career if this drops.
 
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