April Bases ✨

[mrpickem]

Mar 31
4/6.96 WAS +174
2.24/2 WAS +1' -112
5/5.00 CIN u9 +100
4/4.60 NYM -1' +115
3/2.36 SF -127
2/2.72 SF -1' +136
4/5.60 TEX -1' +140
4/5.36 BOS +136
5/4.50 SEA u7 -111
4/3.48 MIA u8' -115
3/1.18 TOR -257
2/1.67 TOR -1' -120
5/5.25 ATL u9 +105
4/5.12 LAA +128
3/1.20 LAD -250
2/1.80 LAD -1' -111

LAST [11-5 +12.40u]
2026 [43-36 +15.20u

Managed to finish March strong for a winning month!

Apr 1 (Early)

• 4/2.99 PIT -134
• 4/3.64 PHI-1' -110
• 4/3.81 PHI U8 -105
• 5/3.16 NYM -158
• 6/6.00 NYM U7' +100
• 3/1.39 ATL -216
• 3/2.96 ATL -1' -101
• 4/9.80 COL +245
• 7/6.80 TOR u7' -103

 

[mrpickem]

rest of day action...

• 5/4.76 MIA u7' -105
• 4/3.92 MIL u7 -102
• 4/4.00 HOU u7 +100
• 5/7.30 LAA +146
• 4/2.58 LAA +1' -155
• 4/4.08 CHC u6 +102

 

[mrpickem]

Night slate...

• 4/4.04 KAN +101
• 3/7.65 CLE +255
• 5/4.76 LAD u8 -105

 

[mrpickem]

Apr 1
4/2.99 PIT -134
4/3.64 PHI -1' -110
4/3.81 PHI u8 -105
5/3.16 NYM -158
6/6.00 NYM u7' +100
3/1.39 ATL -216
3/2.96 ATL -1' -101
4/9.80 COL +245
7/6.80 TOR u7' -103
5/4.76 MIA u7' -105
4/3.92 MIL u7 -102
4/4.00 HOU u7 +100
5/7.30 LAA +146
4/2.58 LAA +1' -155
4/4.08 CHC u6 +102
4/4.04 KAN +101
3/7.65 CLE +255
5/4.76 LAD u8 -105

LAST [9-9 +7.40u]
2026 [52-45 +22.60u]

When you cash 2 big dogs (+245 & +255) even 9-9 is a good night! જ⁀➴

Apr 2

• 5/7.00 MIN +140
• 4/3.42 KAN u9' -117
• 4/4.28 ARI +107
• 4/3.48 ATL o8' -115

randoms...

•MIN UNDERS 10-2 IN L12 ROADIES​

•UNDERS 15-4 L19 MIN/KAN MATCHUPS​

•ATL WON L8 ROADIES​

•ATL ALSO HAS 8 STRAIGHT UNDERS​

•ARI 6-2 L8 @HOME​

•OVERS 5-2 L7 ATL/ARI MATCHUPS​

•NYM JAS 7 STRAIGHT UNDERS​

 

[mrpickem]

Apr 2
5/7.00 MIN +140
4/3.42 KAN u9' -117
4/4.28 ARI +107
4/3.48 ATL o8' -115

LAST [3-1 +9.90u]
2026 [55-46 +32.50u]

Apr 3

• 3/5.25 COL +175
• 5/4.46 COL u10' -112
• 5/5.65 ARI +115
• 3/2.07 ARI +1' -145
• 4/3.77 ATL o9 -106
• 4/3.88 HOU -103
• 4/4.40 OAK u10 +110
• 4/6.48 STL +162
• 4/4.04 DET u7' +101
• 4/6.32 MIA +158
• 3/4.50 CIN +150
• 4/4.12 TEX u7' +103
• 3/4.50 CHC -1' +150
• 5/4.90 CLE u7' -102
• 4/5.60 BAL -1' +140
• 5/5.25 KAN u9 +105
• 3/5.70 CHW +190

randoms...

•STREAKS: HOU 5, DET -4, BOS -5​

•BRADISH LAST 7 STARTS ALL UNDERS​

•MAHLE STARTS 12-4 TO UNDER L365 DAYS​

•MCGREEVY 12-5 +31% ROI L365 DAYS (5-0 @HOME)​

•UNDERS 8-2 L10 STL/DET MATCHUPS​

•MIA 6-1 L7​

•MIA 4-1 L5 VS NYY​

•MIA 7-2 L9 AWAY​

MODEL NOT REALLY RELEVANT YET, JUST THROWING IT OUT THERE FOR TESTING.

 

[mrpickem]

 

[B.A.R.]

Great info as always!

 

[sixsheets]

Go illini

 

[mrpickem]

Apr 3
3/5.25 COL +175
5/4.46 COL u10' -112
5/5.65 ARI +115
3/2.07 ARI +1' -145
4/3.77 ATL o9 -106
4/3.88 HOU -103
4/4.40 OAK u10 +110
4/6.48 STL +162
4/4.04 DET u7' +101
4/6.32 MIA +158
3/4.50 CIN +150
4/4.12 TEX u7' +103
3/4.50 CHC -1' +150
5/4.90 CLE u7' -102
4/5.60 BAL -1' +140
5/5.25 KAN u9 +105
3/5.70 CHW +190

LAST [4-12-1 -27.90u]
2026 [55-46 +4.60u]

Apr 4

• 3/7.65 WAS +255
• 4/3.74 ATL o9' -107
• 4/2.82 PHI -1' -142
• 4/3.57 COL u10' -112
• 4/6.24 CHW +156
• 3/2.70 CHW +1' -111
• 4/3.54 CHW u8' -113
• 4/4.12 OAK +103
• 4/3.74 OAK u10 -107
• 4/5.84 LAA +146
• 4/4.04 SEA o9' +101
• 4/5.76 DET -1' +144
• 5/4.76 DET u7' -105
• 5/6.65 SD +133
• 4/3.77 BOS u8 -106
• 4/7.12 MIA +178
• 3/2.50 MIA +1' -120
• 4/3.54 TEX u8' -113

randoms...

•STREAKS: None >3​

•STL 0-5 AWAY L5​

•DET 5-1 L6 @HOME​

•OAK 8-3 L11 @HOME​

•UNDERS 5-0 L5 IN BOS​

•ATL 10-0 L10 AWAY​

•ARI 3-10 L13​

•PHI 8-0 SU & RL L8 VS COL​

 

[mrpickem]

Apr 4
3/7.65 WAS +255
4/3.74 ATL o9' -107
4/2.82 PHI -1' -142
4/3.57 COL u10' -112
4/6.24 CHW +156
3/2.70 CHW +1' -111
4/3.54 CHW u8' -113
4/4.12 OAK +103
4/3.74 OAK u10 -107
4/5.84 LAA +146
4/4.04 SEA o9' +101
4/5.76 DET -1' +144
5/4.76 DET u7' -105
5/6.65 SD +133
4/3.77 BOS u8 -106
4/7.12 MIA +178
3/2.50 MIA +1' -120
4/3.54 TEX u8' -113

LAST [7-9-2 -1.70u]
2026 [66-67 +2.90u]

Apr 5

• 3/5.58 WAS +186
• 3/4.68 COL +156
• 4/3.35 PHI o11 -119
• 4/3.88 ARI -103
• 6/5.31 ARI u9' -113
• 5/4.72 MIN -106
• 4/5.92 CHW +148
• 4/2.94 OAK +1' -136
• 4/4.28 LAA u9 +107
• 2/5.10 MIA +255
• 3/3.57 MIA +1' +119
• 5/7.20 SD +144
• 5/5.75 BAL +115
• 5/4.76 PIT u8' -105
• 4/3.42 KAN -117
• 5/4.31 TEX u8 -116
• 5/6.25 STL +125

​

randoms...

•STREAKS: PHI, PIT 4, WAS -4​

•HOME FAVS RL: 32-23 +16.6% ROI L7 DAYS​

•LAUER(TOR) 13-3 +51.3% ROI L365 DAYS​

•BOS 1-6 L7​

•UNDERS 6-0 L6 IN BOS​

•SD UNDERS 8-3 L11​

•COL 2-12 L14​

•PHI 9-0 SU & 8-1 RL L9 VS COL​

 

[mrpickem]

NYM (26-14) & NYY (25-14) have been the best bets early season(Mar-Apr) since last year, both returning over 20% ROI on straight plays.



...and Yankees are off to the best start in the bigs this year







Early season model not applicable as it works to find traction.

 

[mrpickem]

Apr 5
3/5.58 WAS +186
3/4.68 COL +156
4/3.35 PHI o11 -119
4/3.88 ARI -103
6/5.31 ARI u9' -113
5/4.72 MIN -106
4/5.92 CHW +148
4/2.94 OAK +1' -136
4/4.28 LAA u9 +107
2/5.10 MIA +255
3/3.57 MIA +1' +119
5/7.20 SD +144
5/5.75 BAL +115
5/4.76 PIT u8' -105
4/3.42 KAN -117
5/4.31 TEX u8 -116
5/6.25 STL +125

LAST [9-8 +7.85u]
2026 [75-75 +10.75u]

Apr 6

• 3/3.45 CHC +115
• 4/2.11 CHC +1' -190
• 4/3.54 TAM u8 -113
• 4/3.07 PIT -120
• 5/4.76 PIT u8' -105
• 4/3.20 MIA -125
• 3/5.04 MIA -1' +168
• 5/4.76 MIA u8 -105
• 4/3.08 LAD -130
• 4/3.74 TOR u9 -107
• 4/4.20 MIN u7 +105
• 5/4.55 TEX -110
• 4/3.64 TEX u7' -110
• 4/3.64 MIL -110
• 3/4.56 COL +152
• 5/4.42 LAA u8 -113
• 3/3.21 SF +107
• 3/2.00 SF +1' -150

randoms...

• STREAKS- PIT 5, NYY 4, TEX & TOR -4, WAS -5
• CLE IS PROFIT CHAMP SO FAR AT +5.4u
• HOUSER(SF) 8-1 @HOME L730 DAYS
• WOODRUFF(MIL) 11-2 +49.6% ROI L365 DAYS w/0.912 WHIP / .188 AVG ALLOWED
• MARQUEZ(SD) 6-19 -58% ROI L365 DAYS w/5.423 xFIP (WITH COL)
• BEST MAR-APR RECORD 2025-26: LAD 28-12, NYM 27-14, NYY 25-15
• CUBS 1-9 L10 ROADIES

 

[mrpickem]

Apr 6
3/3.45 CHC +115
4/2.11 CHC +1' -190
4/3.54 TAM u8 -113
4/3.07 PIT -120
5/4.76 PIT u8' -105
4/3.20 MIA -125
3/5.04 MIA -1' +168
5/4.76 MIA u8 -105
4/3.08 LAD -130
4/3.74 TOR u9 -107
4/4.20 MIN u7 +105
5/4.55 TEX -110
4/3.64 TEX u7' -110
4/3.64 MIL -110
3/4.56 COL +152
4/3.81 HOU o10' -105
5/4.42 LAA u8 -113
3/3.21 SF +107
3/2.00 SF +1' -150

LAST [8-10-1 -3.20u]
2026 [83-85 +7.55u]

Apr 7

• 4/4.32 MIA u7 +108
• 4/4.00 NYM u7 +100
• 5/2.44 NYY -205
• 4/3.60 NYY u8' -111
• 3/4.62 MIN +154
• 4/5.68 MIL +142
• 3/1.88 MIL +1' -160
• 4/4.00 HOU o10' +100

​

randoms...

STREAKS- CIN & LAD 4, SF -4, TOR -5​

CLE IS PROFIT CHAMP SO FAR AT +5.4u ​

DOGS 38-37 +15.9% ROI L7 DAYS​

OVERS 40-31-4 +7.2% ROI L7 DAYS​

CROCHET 23-10 +25.3% ROI w/ 2.560 xFIP L365 DAYS​

SANCHEZ 23-11 +23.3% ROI w/ 2.778 xFIP L365 DAYS​

SKUBAL 23-11 +17.4% ROI w/ 2.572 xFIP L365 DAYS​

ROGERS 15-5 +30.8% ROI w/65% UNDERS (13-7) L365 DAYS​

BAL HAS BEAT CHW 7 STRAIGHT(9 STRAIGHT @CHW)​

SD 12-1 L13 VS PIT​

CUBS 1-10 L11 ROADIES​

AFTER WINNING OPENER, BOS 1-8 IN L9​

NYY 12-3 L15 @HOME​

 

[mrpickem]

Apr 7
4/4.32 MIA u7 +108
4/4.00 NYM u7 +100
5/2.44 NYY -205
4/3.60 NYY u8' -111
3/4.62 MIN +154
4/5.68 MIL +142
3/1.88 MIL +1' -160
4/4.00 HOU u10' +100

LAST [5-2-1 +8.54u]
2026 [88-87 +16.09u]
Note: I erroneously;y listed play on HOU over yesterday when I actually had under.

Apr 8

• 5/5.35 PIT u7 +107
• 4/3.33 PHI -120
• 5/4.63 SF u8' -108
• 4/4.44 WAS +111
• 4/4.84 ARI +121
• 4/3.81 NYM u7' -105
• 5.10/5 CLE u7 -102
• 4/3.81 MIN u8 -105
• 5.10/5 BOS u7' -102
• 4/3.81 TOR u7' -105
• 4/2.81 HOU -142
• 3/2.65 ATL -113
• 3/4.35 ATL -1' +145
• 5/3.79 ATL o8 -132

randoms...

STREAKS- CIN & LAD 5, NYM 4, SEA -4, TOR -6​

CIN 8-3 IS PROFIT CHAMP SO FAR AT +6.49u ​

DOGS ON ML 45-30 +37.3% ROI L7 DAYS​

DOGS ON RL 47-28 +15.3% ROI L7 DAYS​

DETMERS 0-6 w/ 2.205 xFIP L730 DAYS @HOME​

SINGER'S 28 STARTS 21-7 75% TO UNDER OVER L365 DAYS​

CIN 7-2 +6.14u & COL 5-4 +5.5u ARE TOP 2 PROFIT L10 DAYS ​

THIRD STRAIGHT DAY MODEL TAKING MIL

 

[mrpickem]

Apr 8
5/5.35 PIT u7 +107
4/3.33 PHI -120
5/4.63 SF u8' -108
4/4.44 WAS +111
4/4.84 ARI +121
4/3.81 NYM u7' -105
5.10/5 CLE u7 -102
4/3.81 MIN u8 -105
5.10/5 BOS u7' -102
4/3.81 TOR u7' -105
4/2.81 HOU -142
3/2.65 ATL -113
3/4.35 ATL -1' +145
5/3.79 ATL o8 -132

LAST [7-7 -1.03u]
2026 [95-94 +15.06u]

Apr 9

• 4/4.52 CIN +113
• 3/5.13 COL +171
• 4/3.17 SD u8' -126
• 3/1.67 NYY -180
• 4/4.68 NYY -1' +117
• 4/4.72 MIN +118
• 4/3.57 CHW o9 -112

randoms...

STREAKS- CHW -4​

CLE 8-5 IS PROFIT CHAMP SO FAR AT +6.43u ​

DOGS ON ML 42-33 +24.8% ROI L7 DAYS​

DOGS ON RL 46-29 +9.7% ROI L7 DAYS​

VASQUEZ 18-8 +22.4% ROI DESPITE 5.583 xFIP L365 DAYS ​

VASQUEZ 20 STARTS CASHED UNDER 70% (14-6) L730 DAYS @HOME​

DET 2-7 -57.1% ROI AWAY THIS SEASON​

Top 10 teams by profit in 2026

Note: My calculation method is to always use risk 1u where standard method risks 1u on dogs but is to win 1u on favs. I do this to add additional value to dog plays and prevent bit hits if I do play big chalk. Both methods are shown here.

 

[mrpickem]

Apr 9
4/4.52 CIN +113
3/5.13 COL +171
4/3.17 SD u8' -126
3/1.67 NYY -180
4/4.68 NYY -1' +117
4/4.72 MIN +118
4/3.57 CHW o9 -112

LAST [1-5-1 -14.28u]
2026 [95-94 +0.78u]

Apr 10

• 6/7.92 PIT +132
• 5/8.20 ARI +164
• 3/5.58 WAS +186
• 3/4.80 COL +160
• 4/3.87 SD u8 -104
• 3/3.81 MIN +127
• 3/1.85 MIN +1' -162
• 3/4.80 CHW +160
• 4/3.42 KAN u8' -117
• 5/6.25 HOU +125
• 5/6.65 MIA +133
• 4/6.64 LAA +166
• 4/5.36 OAK +134
• 4/5.36 STL +134
• 4/3.74 LAD -1' -107

randoms...

STREAKS- MIN 4, HOU -4, SEA & DET -5​

CLE 8-5 IS PROFIT CHAMP SO FAR AT +6.43u ​

DOGS ON ML 55-53 +16.5% ROI L10 DAYS​

DOGS ON RL 48-31 +7.9% ROI L7 DAYS​

HOLMES 18-12 +11% ROI L365 DAYS ​

SOROKA(ARI) 2-10 -76.6% ROI AWAY L730 DAYS w/ 1.12 WHIP / 4.195 xFIP​

MARTIN(CHW) 2-11 -81.5% ROI AWAY L730 DAYS w/ 1.32 WHIP / 4.778 xFIP​

DET 2-8 -61.4% ROI AWAY THIS SEASON(LOST L8 IN A ROW)​

COL ROADIES HAVVE CASHED UNDER TOTAL 58.2%(46-33-3) L365 DAYS​

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

Apr 10
6/7.92 PIT +132
5/8.20 ARI +164
3/5.58 WAS +186
3/4.80 COL +160
4/3.87 SD u8 -104
3/3.81 MIN +127
3/1.85 MIN +1' -162
3/4.80 CHW +160
4/3.42 KAN u8' -117
5/6.25 HOU +125
5/6.65 MIA +133
4/6.64 LAA +166
4/5.36 OAK +134
4/5.36 STL +134
4/3.74 LAD -1' -107

LAST [+20.35u 8-7]
2026 [+21.13u 102-101]

Apr 11

• 6/6.90 ARI +115
• 3/1.74 ARI +1' -172
• 4/3.51 PHI u9 -114
• 4/5.16 PIT +129
• 4/6.32 WAS +158
• 4/5.40 SD -1' +135
• 5/4.55 SD u8' -110
• 4/6.96 CHW +174
• 4/4.36 KAN u9 +109
• 4/3.92 NYY -1' -102
• 4/3.88 TAM u7' -103
• 5/6.15 MIA +123
• 5/6.00 LAA +120
• 4/5.92 OAK +148
• 4/3.64 CLE o8 -110
• 4/4.88 STL +122
• 4/6.64 TEX +166
• 4/3.60 TEX o8' -111

randoms...

STREAKS- HOU -5​

CLE 8-6 IS PROFIT CHAMP SO FAR AT +5.43u ​

DOGS ON ML 60-50 +24.8% ROI L10 DAYS​

DOGS ON RL 53-30 +10.8% ROI L7 DAYS​

LAUER 7-0 @HOME +74.3% ROI L365 DAYS ​

FRIED 18-12 +40.6% ROI AWAY L730 DAYS w/1.08 WHIP / 3.046 xFIP​

HARRISON 9-3 +33.7% ROI @HOME L730 DAYS w/ 1.50 WHIP / 3.647 xFIP​

SENGA 10-3 +18.8% ROI @HOME L730 DAYS w/ 1.34 WHIP / 4.169 xFIP​

FEDDE 7-22 -56.5% ROI AWAY L730 DAYS w/ 1.58 WHIP / 5.272 xFIP​

FELTNER 3-13 -72.9% ROI AWAY L730 DAYS w/ 1.58 WHIP / 4.398 xFIP​

COL ROADIES HAVE CASHED UNDER TOTAL 58.8%(47-33-3) L365 DAYS​

BEST/WORST STARTER$ LAST 365 DAYS w/ w-L roi ERA/WHIP/xFIP
LAUER(TOR) 13-4 / +58.7% / 2.19 / 1.26 / 4.218
HARRISON(MIL) 6-2 +49.1% / 3.62 / 1.50 / 3.800
PEREZ(ATL) 2-7 /-64.3% / 3.28 / 1.16 / 5.448
MARQUEZ(SD) 7-19 / -55.4% / 3.59 / 1.76 / 5.423

 

[kahlmyishmael]

I agree 110%.

I like how the newsletters are ranking teams top-to-bottom on ROI% rankings

The 365- and 730- days interval analysis is interesting also; I've never seen it before.

Something to look at each day as the season unfolds

Great info as always!