April 2021

[mrpickem]

​

YESTERDAY [10-8 +3.78u]​

Monday action... 902 Atlanta Braves -168 vs Chicago Cubs 3.36/2 901 Chicago Cubs/Atlanta Braves Under 8 +105 4/4.2 904 Milwaukee Brewers -167 vs Miami Marlins 4/2.4 905 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +145 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4/5.8 908 San Francisco Giants -156 vs Colorado Rockies 4/2.56 910 Los Angeles Dodgers -165 vs Cincinnati Reds 3.89/2.36 909 Cincinnati Reds/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 7½ -106 4/3.77 913 Minnesota Twins/Cleveland Indians Under 7½ -115 4/3.48 915 New York Yankees -152 vs Baltimore Orioles 4/2.63

 

[mrpickem]

fwiw, most folks preach dogs, dogs, dogs and I believe that to an extent as well...however, looking back over the past 7+ seasons(since the 2014 season), if you look at only favoites of -175 or more, you could have had 4.6% ROI if you played every one! This was 7.8% ROI if you only took away dogs at -175 or more, albeit at a much smaller sample. Home games alone still have 3.7% ROI




If you look at same games by day of week, amazingly everyday is profitable with Friday being best at 8.4% ROI and Thurs 2nd at 6%



If you look at it by season, you will see an abnormally strong 3 year run for these favs from 2017-19 that kind of carried it, but there are no nearly as significant losing season in the SDQL history since '04

 

[mrpickem]

After 6-2 yesterday "Chasin" now 60% on the year for 12% ROI :clapping2:

Gints and Tigs today



"Chasin Unders" went 2-1 yesterday and now almost 67% on year for an amazing 25% ROI :assshake:

None for today though

 

[mrpickem]

​	adding​
	921 Seattle Mariners/Houston Astros Under 9 -110 4/3.64

 

[mrpickem]

​	YESTERDAY [3-7 -18.96u]​
	951 Chicago Cubs/Atlanta Braves Under 8½ -105 4/3.82 953 Miami Marlins +144 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4/5.76 957 San Diego Padres* -157 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4/2.55 962 Los Angeles Dodgers -225 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.5/2 972 Chicago White Sox -225 vs Detroit Tigers 4.5/2 971 Detroit Tigers/Chicago White Sox Under 7½ +105 4/4.2 979 Boston Red Sox +130 vs New York Mets 4/5.2

randoms

TRENDS​

MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND

• Minnesota is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Cleveland
• The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Minnesota's last 24 games when playing Cleveland
• Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
• Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota

KANSAS CITY @ PITTSBURGH

• Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
• Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games when playing at home against Kansas City

NY YANKEES @ BALTIMORE

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
• The total has gone OVER in 14 of NY Yankees's last 17 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
• Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing NY Yankees

WASHINGTON @ TORONTO

• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto's last 8 games
• Toronto is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Washington

BOSTON @ NY METS

• Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
• Boston is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
• NY Mets is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
• NY Mets is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

OAKLAND @ TAMPA BAY

• Oakland is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games
• Oakland is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
• Tampa Bay is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
• Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland

CHI CUBS @ ATLANTA

• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games at home
• Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs

MIAMI @ MILWAUKEE

• Miami is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 12 of Miami's last 16 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
• Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
• The total has gone OVER in 12 of Milwaukee's last 16 games when playing at home against Miami

PHILADELPHIA @ ST. LOUIS

• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
• Philadelphia is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing St. Louis
• St. Louis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
• St. Louis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

LA ANGELS @ TEXAS

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Angels's last 6 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing Texas
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games at home
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games

DETROIT @ CHI WHITE SOX

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 10 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
• Chi White Sox is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
• Chi White Sox is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

SEATTLE @ HOUSTON

• Seattle is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games
• Seattle is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
• Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
• Houston is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing Seattle

SAN DIEGO @ ARIZONA

• San Diego is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing Arizona
• Arizona is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
• Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego

COLORADO @ SAN FRANCISCO

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 7 games on the road
• Colorado is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
• San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
• San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Colorado

CINCINNATI @ LA DODGERS

• Cincinnati is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games at home
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games

 

[mrpickem]

​	adding...​
	974 Houston Astros -174 vs Seattle Mariners 4/2.3 974 Houston Astros -1½ +110 vs Seattle Mariners 4/4.4

Astros -170 ...stros are getting back on track, mainly because of their offense. All their big names are healthy and they are a very difficult lineup to stop when 100%. Gonzales has looked better as of late, but he is still getting hit pretty hard (FIP 6.10). Javier has fantastic stuff and looked unhittable against the Angels in his last start. Javier struck out eight batters in the first 3.2 innings of his last start and he is hard to fade in this spot. Gonzales has been awful and HOU loves facing left-handed pitching.. I'm thinkin HOU may be worth the price, both ML & RL.

Any team (HOUSTON) w/good AL offensive team (>=5.1 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts
26-8 over the last 5 seasons.
76.5% (18.3 units)

​

 

[mrpickem]

Chasin 1-1 last night and 4 tonight...CHC, LAD, NYY, CHW



Chasin Unders qualifies 2 tonight... Jays and ChiSox games

 

[mrpickem]

​

YESTERDAY [5-4 +2.92u]​

905 Chicago Cubs +123 vs Atlanta Braves 4/4.92 910 Arizona Diamondbacks +145 vs San Diego Padres 4/5.8 911 Colorado Rockies/San Francisco Giants Under 7 +102 4/4.08 917 Oakland Athletics +1½ -140 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.5/2.5 917 Oakland Athletics/Tampa Bay Rays Under 7½ -120 4/3.33 919 Los Angeles Angels -122 vs Texas Rangers 4/3.28 922 Houston Astros -1½ -105 vs Seattle Mariners 4/3.82 924 Chicago White Sox -1½ -105 vs Detroit Tigers 4/3.82 926 Pittsburgh Pirates +1½ -155 vs Kansas City Royals 3.41/2.2 926 Pittsburgh Pirates* +107 vs Kansas City Royals 4/4.28 928 New York Mets -1½ -115 vs Boston Red Sox 4/3.48 928 New York Mets -233 vs Boston Red Sox 4/1.72

randoms

TRENDS​

MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND

• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road
• Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
• Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
• Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota

MIAMI @ MILWAUKEE

• Miami is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
• Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
• Milwaukee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

CINCINNATI @ LA DODGERS

• Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 9 games
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games at home
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games

KANSAS CITY @ PITTSBURGH

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games
• Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City

BOSTON @ NY METS

• Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
• Boston is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Mets's last 6 games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing Boston

NY YANKEES @ BALTIMORE

• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 7 games when playing Baltimore
• NY Yankees is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing NY Yankees

WASHINGTON @ TORONTO

• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 10 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
• Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
• Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

OAKLAND @ TAMPA BAY

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
• Oakland is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Oakland

CHI CUBS @ ATLANTA

• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
• Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
• The total has gone OVER in 12 of Atlanta's last 15 games at home

PHILADELPHIA @ ST. LOUIS

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road
• St. Louis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
• St. Louis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home

LA ANGELS @ TEXAS

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Angels's last 7 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 6 games when playing Texas
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas's last 6 games at home
• Texas is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against LA Angels

DETROIT @ CHI WHITE SOX

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
• Chi White Sox is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Detroit
• Chi White Sox is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Detroit

SEATTLE @ HOUSTON

• Seattle is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Seattle's last 10 games when playing Houston
• Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
• Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

SAN DIEGO @ ARIZONA

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing Arizona
• San Diego is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
• Arizona is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
• Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego

COLORADO @ SAN FRANCISCO

• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games
• Colorado is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
• San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
• San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Colorado

 

[mrpickem]

When games on Wednesday or Sunday have a total less than 8 and it's the last game of the series, the unders have been great. Beyond great this year going an unbelievable 17-4 or 81% but even over the last 7+ years these totals still stay under a solid 56.7%

Theory is it's a travel day, with several starters getting rest potentially. Just throw out the higher totals to eliminate the scrub starters.

H and day in [Wednesday , Sunday] and LGS and total < 8 and ...

games	SU W - L (marg, %win)	Avg Line	o:Avg Line	$ On	$ Against	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	$ Over	$ Under	SDQL
22	12-10 (0.18, 54.5%)	-143.9	130.7	-$145	+$35	4-17-1 (-1.55, 19.0%)	7.3	-$1,458	+$1,295	(season = 2021)
1023	573-450 (0.22, 56.0%)	-131.1	118.7	+$1,662	-$6,223	424-555-44 (0.08, 43.3%)	7.2	-$18,068	+$8,805	(season > 2013)

Showing 1 to 2 of 2 entries

4 games today fit the bill

 

[mrpickem]

​	adds​
	903 Cincinnati Reds/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 7½ +100 3/3 925 Kansas City Royals/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 8 -110 3.3/3 927 Boston Red Sox/New York Mets Under 7 -115 3.45/3

 

[mrpickem]

CHASIN ONLY 1-3 TUESDAY AND HAS 8 SELECTIONS TODAY

 

[mrpickem]

​

YESTERDAY [4-10 -23.79u]​

956 Milwaukee Brewers +180 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 4/7.2 955 Los Angeles Dodgers/Milwaukee Brewers Under 7½ -110 4.1/3.73 958 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +140 vs Colorado Rockies 4/5.6 959 New York Yankees -172 vs Baltimore Orioles 4/2.33 963 Seattle Mariners +137 vs Houston Astros 4/5.48 959 New York Yankees -1½ -120 vs Baltimore Orioles 4/3.33 961 Oakland Athletics -109 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4/3.67 965 Boston Red Sox -115 vs Texas Rangers 4/3.48 965 Boston Red Sox -1½ +135 vs Texas Rangers 4/5.4 965 Boston Red Sox/Texas Rangers Under 8½ +103 4/4.12

Rough day yesterday, time to bounce back :rolleyes:

randoms...

• Red Sox -1½ +135 & ML ...Although Kyle Gibson has been terrific this season...mostly due to his ridiculousy hard to hit slider, posting a .154 XWOBA thus far. However, I'll still back the Sox against him. BOS offense is good and the Rangers are simply below average, so I'm betting that Gibson cannot continue to carry them through games. The downside to this pick is Martin Perez is pitching for the Sox.
• Yankees -1½ -120 & ML ...Yanks are looking good and when they start getting hot it’s time to ride. 12-1 against the Orioles in the last two games. No Galvis or Santander for the O’s. Jorge Lopez gives up a LOT of hard contact(highest of any starter today) and has given up at least 1 HR in all four starts.
• Athletics -109 ...A's are gunning to split this series, will not want to drop 3 of 4 to an AL competitor. Despite scoring zero runs yesterday, they had seven hits. Bassitt is 2-2 with ERA just above 4. His last two starts however, 8 strikeouts, 2 runs earned over 6In. Expect less strikeouts from him and maybe one more run earned as bats will get going. Shane McClanahan makes season debut for TB, who pitched well last postseason in one game, but reality will strike.. he'll pitch just okay. Including two losses in Tampa over past two days, Oak posts 7-3 record on road this season. Plus Oak is 7-3 in day games. Also the A's are 26-8 vs lefties over L34 and 43-16 +25% ROI over last 730 days(2 years)

​

Jessica Alba turns 40 today​

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IMG 9447 GIF | Gfycat

Watch and share IMG 9447 GIFs on Gfycat

gfycat.com

 

[Timh]

BOL MRP.

 

[2daBank]

Crazy Gibson stat. He has yet to allow a home run this season! He been dominant since getting roughed up in his 1st outing of the year but I just don’t see how it sustainable? He has never had a season with a hr/fb ratio lower than 14.5%, it been over 20% last 2 years, and now it freaking O?!!?!! That can’t possibly keep up! I sometimes mock the pure analytics guys for expecting regression but this is one the times there has to be some sooner than later doesnt there????

I don’t like Perez either but his velo has actually ticked back up closer to his ‘19 numbers when he was decent, his hard hit rate is really low, yet he having terrible results. I don’t expect him to be great but against a texas team that doesn’t hit lhp real well I’d think he be little better than he has lately!! I love this one also, seems super cheap. Gl today

 

[mrpickem]

​	adds​
	970 Chicago White Sox (7 Innings) -196 vs Detroit Tigers (7 Innings) 4/2.04 969 Detroit Tigers/Chicago White Sox (7 Innings) Over 4 -110 for 1st 5 Innings 3/2.73 953 Chicago Cubs/Atlanta Braves Under 9½ -117 4/3.42 963 Seattle Mariners/Houston Astros Under 9 -102 4/3.92

Wanted Philly too, but got busy and missed it, may look for something live​

​

​

 

[mrpickem]

After 2-4 yesterday Chasin now only at 5.2% ROI for the year.

4 today: SEA, NYY, DET(1), DET(2)




Chasin Unders went 1-0 yesterday and now +12.2% ROI on the year

Selects TEX under today

 

[mrpickem]

​

YESTERDAY [8-5 +15.75u]

902 Pittsburgh Pirates -104 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3/2.89 911 Colorado Rockies +114 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 3/3.42 913 San Francisco Giants +1½ -120 vs San Diego Padres 3/2.5 913 San Francisco Giants +183 vs San Diego Padres 3/5.49 913 San Francisco Giants/San Diego Padres Under 7½ -105 3/2.86 916 New York Yankees -1½ -160 vs Detroit Tigers 3.2/2 919 Boston Red Sox -151 vs Texas Rangers 3/2 923 Cleveland Indians/Chicago White Sox Under 6½ +100 3/3 925 Baltimore Orioles +126 vs Oakland Athletics 3/3.78

randoms...

whew, I needed that. A very good day that could have been really great if NYY would have shown

• Pirates -104 ...the Pirates have been a great value team this season, making 6.15 units for over 25% ROI. I'm thinking the Bucs hold some value again today with Brubaker on the bump vs SL and John Gant. PIT was off on Thursday while St Loo had to play an extra-innings game. SL is 2-6 SU in L8 as dog and also the same following a win. PIT's pen has pitched better this season so far and as weak as the PIT lineup is, I still feel good in this spot today.

Recent Trends

St. Louis:	STL are 2-6 in their last 8 games as an underdog. STL are 2-6 in their last 8 games following a win. STL are 2-6 in Gants last 8 starts as an underdog.
Pittsburgh:	Over is 5-2-1 in PIT last 8 home games. Over is 12-5-1 in PIT last 18 Fri. games. Over is 7-3-1 in PIT last 11 games as a favorite.
Head to Head:	STL are 16-5 in the last 21 meetings.

Starters | In-Depth | Starting Staffs

Last 3	W/L​	TW/TL​	IP​	H​	WHIP​	ERA​	AF​	AA​	O/U​
Overall	W/L​	TW/TL​	IP​	H​	WHIP​	ERA​	AF​	AA​	O/U​
John Gant (R) JT Brubaker (R)	1-2 2-1​	2-2 2-2​	20.0 22.1​	18 16​	1.55 0.94​	2.25 2.01​	2.0 4.0​	2.2 2.2​	0-4 0-3​
John Gant (R) JT Brubaker (R)	1-2 2-1​	1-2 2-1​	16.0 18.1​	14 13​	1.50 0.76​	2.81 1.96​	1.3 4.3​	2.3 1.3​	0-3 0-2​

Bullpens | In-Depth

	IP​	WHIP​	ERA​	IP​	WHIP​	ERA​
	IP​	WHIP​	ERA​	IP​	WHIP​	ERA​
	Total​	​	Available​
STL	77.0​	1.31​	4.09​	77.0​	1.31​	4.09​
Last 3​	24.0​	1.08​	3.75​	24.0​	1.08​	3.75​
PIT	92.2​	1.06​	3.40​	92.2​	1.06​	3.40​
Last 3	36.0​	1.08​	3.25​	36.0​	1.08​	3.25​

​

 

[chipnotized]

Nice day yesterday, Mr.P

Liking that Bucs play...have a fortune-filled Friday.

 

[mrpickem]

​	adds...​
	910 Milwaukee Brewers -108 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 3/2.78 909 Los Angeles Dodgers/Milwaukee Brewers Under 8 -105 3/2.86

 

[mrpickem]

Chasin endured another bad night at 1-3



Chasin Under cashed again but none tonight...

 

[AtlHawks]

Bump.


Need the Friday Chart

 

[B.A.R.]

Bump.


Need the Friday Chart

Mister indicated in another thread that he's away for a bit with a health issue.