21. Denver (9-7)
Projected pick: +
Jarvis Moss, DE/OLB, Florida |
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Needs: DE, WR, S, OT, DT, MLB, RB, CB
• The Broncos have four picks on the first day, so moving up in the first round is a possibility. Considering the depth at their top positions of need (DE, WR, S), it also wouldn't surprise me a bit if Denver took a deal to move down.
• The Broncos solidified their secondary by trading for Dre' Bly, who will start opposite Champ Bailey. Drafting a pass-rushing threat like Moss is a logical step to help fix a pass defense that ranked 21st in 2006.
• Purdue DE
Anthony Spencer is moving up the boards and could easily go ahead of Moss as the fourth end taken.
• If stuck at No. 21 with no satisfying defensive end prospect to choose from, OT Staley, WRs Bowe and Meachem and safeties Nelson, Meriweather and Griffin would all be possibilities.
22. Dallas (9-7)
Projected pick: Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU |
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Needs: CB, WR, S, OT, DE, PK, C, NT, ILB, OLB
• The Cowboys have done a nice job of filling their holes during free agency, which gives them some freedom early in the draft. They have interest in moving down if they get the right deal. Otherwise, they will take the best available cornerback, wide receiver, offensive tackle or edge rusher at No. 22.
• In this scenario, Bowe is the best fit. The 6-foot-2, 222-pound wideout displays the size, agility and playmaking skills to develop into a quality starter at the next level. As a rookie in 2007, Bowe could serve as an excellent No. 3 option behind aging veterans Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn.
• Signing Ken Hamlin certainly does not preclude the Cowboys from using this pick on a safety such as Nelson, Griffin or Meriweather. The Cowboys should also consider a cornerback like Ross, an offensive tackle like Staley or a 3-4 rush-linebacker like Spencer, if available.
23. Kansas City (9-7)
Projected pick: Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee |
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Needs: WR, OT, DT, CB, DE, QB, G, FB, LB, C
• Harrell is moving up draft boards because he's regained full strength after suffering a torn biceps as a senior. Additionally, there isn't enough supply at the defensive tackle position to meet the demand of interested NFL teams. The Chiefs can stay ahead of the curve by nabbing Harrell here.
• If Kansas City doesn't go with Harrell, it could find a similar value at cornerback with Arkansas'
Chris Houston or offensive tackle with Staley.
• The Chiefs have a pressing need for a playmaking wide receiver, but it's not their style to spend a high pick at that position. They could surprise by taking Bowe or Meachem at No. 23. Otherwise, the Chiefs can take advantage of this year's deep crop of receivers in a later round.
24. New England (12-4) (from Seattle)
Projected pick: +
Reggie Nelson, S, Florida |
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Needs: ILB, S, CB, OLB, RB, OT, QB, P, NT
• The Patriots, who own 10 picks overall, have made 23 draft-day trades during the Bill Belichick/Scott Pioli era, which dates back to 2000. So don't count out a deal with one of their two first-round picks in this year's draft.
• The Patriots' top needs exist at inside linebacker and safety. In this scenario, Nelson is the best available option. At 6-0 and 198 pounds, Nelson has very good range and playmaking potential as a centerfielder-type free safety. Head coach Bill Belichick loves players from Florida because he has tremendous respect for coach Urban Meyer.
• The team has spent quality time with Meriweather during the pre-draft process and Griffin is another possibility if New England elects to draft a safety at No. 28.
• The Patriots never act as if they're handcuffed by needs during draft weekend, but the Asante Samuel situation should increase their interest in this year's cornerback crop. Ross would be a possibility if available at No. 24 overall. If not, the team has shown interest in Fresno State CB
Marcus McCauley, which it could nab later in this round or by trading up into the top half of Round 2.
25. N.Y. Jets (10-6)
Projected pick: Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB, Purdue |
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Needs: CB, OLB, TE, WR, NT, ILB,C, S
• The Jets should take advantage of their good fortune if Spencer is still on the board at No. 25. Undersized with very good speed and up-the-field playmaking skills, Spencer could be a steal late in the first round if he builds on the progress he made as a senior at Purdue (nation-best 26.5 tackles for loss). He would be an ideal fit opposite DE/OLB Bryan Thomas when the Jets line up in their 3-4 look, and he could provide depth at defensive end when the team is using a four-man front.
• TE Olsen and DT Harrell are two other prospects the Jets will target if available at No. 25.
• Considering their need to upgrade at cornerback, CB Houston should also be on the Jets' short list of prospects in this scenario. Teams have differing opinions regarding Houston's value. Although he certainly has room to improve with regards to his technique and overall run-support skills, Houston is blessed with outstanding speed, athleticism and upper-body strength. However, it's not typically the style of the Bill Parcells/Belichick coaching tree to spend a high pick on the cornerback position.
26. Philadelphia (10-6)
Projected pick: Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami-FL
Needs: CB, S, DE, OLB, RB, WR, TE, MLB, PK, DT
• Although the Eagles certainly can use depth at several different positions, it's hard to find a glaring weakness at any starting spot on their depth chart. One thing is certain, the Eagles will not be handcuffed by positions of need in this year's draft.
• Meriweather is a good value here because of his versatility and toughness, so long as the Eagles are comfortable with his character. The team could use Meriweather as insurance at the safety position, as Brian Dawkins is 34 and Sean Considine is still unproven.
• Other possibilities in this scenario could include S Griffin, CB Houston, and OLBs Posluszny and Beason.
27. New Orleans (10-6)
Projected pick: Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State |
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Needs: DT, LB, DC, WR, TE, DE, G/C, QB
• The Saints would like to use this pick on the best available defensive prospect, particularly at linebacker or defensive tackle. The career tackles leader at Penn State, Posluszny is instinctive, quick and tough enough to eventually emerge as an upgrade at outside linebacker for the Saints.
• DT Harrell would be tough to pass on if he falls.
• Beason and Harris are two more linebackers New Orleans would consider with this selection.
• The Saints could still take a cornerback should the right value (Ross or Houston) fall to them at No. 27. However, the team is no longer handcuffed by that need after signing restricted free agent Jason David -- assuming the Colts opt not to match the offer by Friday.
• Although it's unlikely the Eagles would use a first-round pick on a wide receiver, they do need depth at the position and could take advantage of a great value falling in their lap, such as Ginn, Bowe or Meachem.
28. New England (12-4)
Projected pick: +
Jon Beason, LB, Miami-FL |
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• After landing S Nelson four picks earlier, the team could use this pick on the best available linebacker. New England would consider Michigan's
David Harris here, but Beason is the better value. He's instinctive, quick and tough enough to develop into a good starter at inside linebacker in the team's 3-4 scheme. Belichick's system is complex, which is why the team typically avoids drafting linebackers high. However, Beason would have ample time to learn as a backup in 2007 behind aging veteran ILBs Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel.
• As is always the case with the Patriots, don't be surprised if they stray from their needs and take advantage of a player who falls to them at No. 28 overall. Some examples could include OT Staley, Auburn G
Ben Grubbs, USC C
Ryan Kalil, WR Bowe, DT Harrell or OLB/DE Spencer.
29. Baltimore (13-3)
Projected pick: Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan |
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Needs: CB, OT, OLB, ILB, FB, C/G, QB, S, DE
• The Ravens will be extremely fortunate if Staley falls to them at No. 29. He's a fast-rising prospect with excellent feet and the frame to get bigger and stronger. With Jonathan Ogden threatening to retire, Staley becomes the future at left tackle for the Ravens.
• Baltimore could also look to target the best available cornerback or linebacker with this selection. CB Houston would be a possibility in this scenario, as would ILB Harris. The team would be even more tempted to pull the trigger on OLB/DE Spencer should he fall to them here.
• Don't rule out C Kalil, G Grubbs, OT
Tony Ugoh (Arkansas) and OG/OT
Justin Blalock (Texas) if Staley is off the board.
• Finally, GM Ozzie Newsome has built the Ravens by drafting the best available player rather than reaching for prospects at positions of need. So, if a player of superior value falls to them here, don't be surprised if the Ravens take him instead of the best available offensive lineman, linebacker or cornerback.
30. San Diego (14-2)
Projected pick: +
Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee |
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Needs: WR, S, ILB, CB, DL, RB, G, OT, OLB, LS
• Meachem could easily be off the board in the top 20. Needless to say, the Chargers would be stoked to get him at No. 30. Although he may never be a pure No. 1 receiver in the NFL, Meachem has the speed and playmaking skills to take attention away from RB LaDainian Tomlinson and TE Antonio Gates.
• Ohio State's
Anthony Gonzalez and USC's
Dwayne Jarrett and
Steve Smith would be the other wide receiver possibilities with this pick.
• The team also could take the best available safety or linebacker with this pick. Some options could include safeties Griffin and Meriweather, as well as LBs Beason and Harris.
31. Chicago (13-3)
Projected pick: +
Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC |
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Needs: DT, OLB, WR, TE, RB, OT, QB, S, G, PT
• The Bears have bigger needs at defensive tackle and outside linebacker, but Jarrett is a much better value than any player remaining at those positions in this scenario. Despite his subpar workout results at USC's pro day, Jarrett is one of the top five receivers in this class and he's enough of a playmaker to warrant late-first round consideration.
• Gonzalez and Smith would be the other wide receiver possibilities for the Bears with this pick.
• The Bears also should look to address the outside linebacker position early, even if they fail to trade disgruntled starter Lance Briggs prior to draft weekend. Beason or Posluszny would be great values if either falls to them at No. 31 overall.
• Assuming Okoye and Harrell are off the board, the Bears will need to find depth for their one-gap defensive tackle spot later in this draft.
• Don't be surprised if the Bears take advantage of a good value falling to them at any other position, particularly along the offensive line or at safety.
32. Indianapolis (12-4)
Projected pick: Michael Griffin, S, Texas |
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Needs: OLB, DT, ILB, RB, G, CB, WR, OT, QB
• The Colts have bigger needs at linebacker and defensive tackle, but Griffin is a good value because he brings experience and versatility to the table after notching 250 tackles during his last two seasons at Texas. He could provide quality depth behind Antoine Bethea and oft-injured Bob Sanders, especially with Mike Doss (Vikings) bolting in the offseason.
• The team would like to see DT Harrell or LB Beason slip to this spot.
• ILB Harris is a possibility but he just doesn't seem to fit the Colts' mold of undersized, speedy defenders.
• Cornerback is a possibility here after the Colts lost both Super Bowl starters (David and Nick Harper) via free agency. However, the team won't reach for one in the first round because the Tampa 2 defense doesn't place as much value on cornerbacks as other schemes. CB Houston is the best available in this scenario but he's an undersized man-to-man coverage specialist who doesn't fit the Colts' prototype.
• A guard like Grubbs or a WR like Smith would be quality values at positions that need an upgrade.
