Alright you Mathmagicians...Let's Discuss Futures...
- Thread starter B.A.R.
- Start date
If I recall, you feel very certain that both Bama and Clemson cover, not to mention winning SU.
So some sort of hedge game.
Obviously Bama and Clemson ML will be way too juicy alone.
So maybe hedge with Bama and Clemson ML Parlay?
You've got 2 huge underdogs...question has to be asked...what are you looking to do?
Guarantee a profit? Get back at least your original investment? Honestly, you're not going to be able GUARANTEE a profit unless one of the dogs wins. But again, not sure what you're looking to do. A clemson/bama parlay right now is -225, just need some more information here, Reno.
Guarantee a profit? Get back at least your original investment? Honestly, you're not going to be able GUARANTEE a profit unless one of the dogs wins. But again, not sure what you're looking to do. A clemson/bama parlay right now is -225, just need some more information here, Reno.
Obviously, I want to get my initial back at minumum. I am looking for a GD (kind of a talking shop thread) for all of us plus some creative ideas.
I purposely didn't include that initially. My prices I gave for OU are "averages". OU is 2x....ND 1x. In all honesty, that was my mistake when I made the ND investment during Stanford week.
So for argument's sake, the best way for you to get close to even, assuming you think both dogs lose, Bama 2u open parlay with Bama's 1st G & open filled w Bama's 2nd game (2u b/c OU is the initial opponent.
In addition, I'd play 1u on Clemson to win it all.
Quite honestly don't see a way to hedge this if your focus is to make money. (Obviously this is under the assumption both dogs lose).
If your focus is to just lose a little, I think something like the above may accomplish that, but with 2 huge dogs, it's a very difficult spot. Might be best trying to grab a live line hoping one of the dogs takes an early lead or is up at half...that's where some value (and profit potential) could pop into the equation.
In addition, I'd play 1u on Clemson to win it all.
Quite honestly don't see a way to hedge this if your focus is to make money. (Obviously this is under the assumption both dogs lose).
If your focus is to just lose a little, I think something like the above may accomplish that, but with 2 huge dogs, it's a very difficult spot. Might be best trying to grab a live line hoping one of the dogs takes an early lead or is up at half...that's where some value (and profit potential) could pop into the equation.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
This is why the braves family refers to him as The Math Man
I agree. For there to be any decent payout, you need a dog to win. Once that happens, then you can be sure to make a nice little profit.
But if you're hedging just to minimize your potential loss, instead of making future bets for what a positive gain can be (even including a hedge, if ND/OU wins), you're putting yourself way behind the 8-ball.
It's not impossible at all to have one of these teams lose SU. #cardalejones
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Wait til inplay to bet on clemson or alabama--
Otherwise leave it hoping one team pulls of an upset which is possible imo
Otherwise leave it hoping one team pulls of an upset which is possible imo
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Or do a double result play--
Alabama to win at half and full game
Clemson to win at half and full game
Parlay these together--
If you lose at half, that means your team could be leading or tied--
If you lose the end of game part of the parlay that means one of oklahoma and notre dame won the game and you are GOOD$$
Sammy Mathballs
Alabama to win at half and full game
Clemson to win at half and full game
Parlay these together--
If you lose at half, that means your team could be leading or tied--
If you lose the end of game part of the parlay that means one of oklahoma and notre dame won the game and you are GOOD$$
Sammy Mathballs
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
Love that Bama tt over too
It did enter my head a bit. It entered my head again as well when submitting the tt play.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
High ankle sprain is what I heard. Gonna have surgery. May not be out, but will be limited in practice. Would imagine there will be a heavy dose of run game.
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
I came up with 33% probability based on 4 favorable outcomes out of 8 possible .
But I'm not quite as good at holding things in my head as I used to be.
I think the key will be where you hedge.
You could go into the Championship match totally flush, with both teams passing the semis.
Moneylines on the faves I think will be too pricey.
Maybe a one time shot on a TT or O/U on punts for bama vs. OU.
Probably the shortest line will be a Clemson/Ou matchup.
But I always consider ND the weakest.
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
Because I think Clemson will destroy Notre Dame, and because I think the Okie/Alabama game will be a dogfight, I would lay the points with Clemson.
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Good thread. I enjoy seeing pickers think their way through the math.
I never bet futures or ingame so I'm no expert, but I see several ways listed above likely to ensure a profit.
My choice would be to play Bama and Clemson ML. I like laying ML favorites anyway and have had great success doing so (56-0, all posted on this board, until the book cut me off). I don't have the tables in front of me, but I seem to recall favorites in this point range win at about 75% rate.
In this case I don't consider the juice prohibitive on either Bama or Clemson because you already have your Oklahoma and N Dame plays. You ensure a profit and you still have plays available on the second game and second half plays available in each game.
I never bet futures or ingame so I'm no expert, but I see several ways listed above likely to ensure a profit.
My choice would be to play Bama and Clemson ML. I like laying ML favorites anyway and have had great success doing so (56-0, all posted on this board, until the book cut me off). I don't have the tables in front of me, but I seem to recall favorites in this point range win at about 75% rate.
In this case I don't consider the juice prohibitive on either Bama or Clemson because you already have your Oklahoma and N Dame plays. You ensure a profit and you still have plays available on the second game and second half plays available in each game.
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