ALL ABOARD the lindetrain - Week 4

L

lindetrain

Pretty much a regular
Week 3: 8-4-1, +3.89 units
YTD: 19-16-1, +2.66 units

Really a great weekend for me...got to witness one of the greatest UK wins in my lifetime first hand, and won some money to top it all off. These are the things I live for...it's hard to get much better than this.

Here are the lines according to my power ratings this week...I think it's the closest my ratings have been since Week 1.

Texas A&M (PK) at Miami
Oklahoma (-19) at Tulsa
Syracuse (+31) at Louisville
Illinois (-2.5) at Indiana
Duke (+10.5) at Navy
Baylor (-2.5) at Buffalo
Kent State (-2.5) at Akron
Army (+28.5) at Boston College
Miami OH (+11) at Colorado
Ball State (+23) at Nebraska
Air Force (+10) at BYU
Washington (+8.5) at UCLA
Georgia (+3.5) at Alabama
Florida (-18) at Ole Miss
Northwestern (+20.5) at Ohio State
Penn State (-1.5) at Michigan
Texas Tech (+2) at Oklahoma State
Michigan State (-5) at Notre Dame
Memphis (+7) at Central Florida
Georgia Tech (-4) at Virginia
Colorado State (+3.5) at Houston
Arizona (+18) at California
Northern Illinois (+1.5) at Idaho
Temple (+9.5) at Bowling Green
East Carolina (+27) at West Virginia
Iowa State (+5) at Toledo
North Carolina (+14.5) at South Florida
Maryland (+2.5) at Wake Forest
Clemson (-8) at NC State
Marshall (+19) at Cincinnati
Kentucky (+6) at Arkansas
New Mexico State (+9) at Auburn
Connecticut (+2) at Pittsburgh
Wyoming (PK) at Ohio
Rice (+33) at Texas
Washington State (+25.5) at USC
South Carolina (+15.5) at LSU
Iowa (+8) at Wisconsin
San Jose State (+1.5) at Utah State
SMU (+13.5) at TCU
Purdue (-15.5) at Minnesota
Utah (-5.5) at UNLV
Oregon (-17) at Stanford
Oregon State (+4.5) at Arizona State
Florida International (+30.5) at Kansas
Troy (-4) at UL Lafayette
Florida Atlantic (-9) at North Texas
Arkansas State (+22) at Tennessee
 
Initial thoughts:

That Notre Dame/Michigan State line is ridiculous. Talk about your overreaction to the Irish getting blown out for the third consecutive week - now they're catching 2 TDs at home against Michigan State? Don't get me wrong, I think the Irish are horrible, but what has MSU done to prove they're capable of laying this number? They beat up on a horrible UAB team, struggled against Bowling Green, and really struggled against Pittsburgh. The Spartans are not near as potent or talented as Georgia Tech, Penn State, or Michigan. I will definitely be on the Irish.

Don't you think Georgia can beat Alabama? Yeah, they lost to SC at home a couple weeks back, but from what I can tell they just shot themselves in the foot repeatedly in that game...can't they pull this one out? I see a letdown of sorts for Alabama, as this is their second consecutive big SEC tilt at home - and last week was a thriller. Surely Richt and Co. are interested in doing to someone what SC did to them.

Did Michigan just get the momentum they needed last week to start playing how they should? This line would've been reversed at the start of the season...and I have to think this is somewhat of a fresh start for Michigan. Morelli and that offense has been really unimpressive for me, and I'm not sure I like that team laying a FG in the Big House.

California probably hasn't forgotten about Arizona upsetting them last year...with them playing well and the Wildcats playing horrible, things could set up for a blowout.

Why in the hell is an improved Temple team catching nearly 3 TDs to a team they beat (pretty bad) last year?

Iowa State kicks 5 FGs in a rivalry game (one where it's clear their rivals didn't take them serious), and now they're laying over a FG in a pretty tough environment. Toledo is absolutely pathetic, but I'm not about to act like ISU is some world beater now. This seems like an awfully appealing play if you ask me, assuming the Cyclones return to Earth and have a bit of a letdown on the road.

WHAT has Auburn proven to lay 17 to ANYONE in I-A?

Connecticut looks pretty tempting against Pitt, a team who really struggled offensively against Michigan State. I think the Huskies have a decent team this year, and catching this many is worth a look.

What a horrible spot for Wyoming. Traveling all the way across the country to play a MAC team? I really like Ohio (who has to be feeling good about themselves after competing in Blacksburg).

I didn't know Oregon State was 12 points worse than Arizona State...
 
GL this week linde. Congrats on the UK win and a great week on your bets.

One question though, can you tell me why in the hell Rich Brooks and co. didn't go for two after that last TD? I mean, what the hell were they thinking there? I mean, chances are it wouldn't have mattered, but wow. I was rooting for UK the whole way, but after that decision part of me wanted UL to march down and win it 41-40.

I like UConn and Oregon St. I think. I thought about Temple, but BG seems improved and I question whether or not Temple can stop BG's spread. I have to look into that more though.

Edit: Oh, and sorry about WMU last week.
 
Dmoney416 said:
GL this week linde. Congrats on the UK win and a great week on your bets.

One question though, can you tell me why in the hell Rich Brooks and co. didn't go for two after that last TD? I mean, what the hell were they thinking there? I mean, chances are it wouldn't have mattered, but wow. I was rooting for UK the whole way, but after that decision part of me wanted UL to march down and win it 41-40.

I like UConn and Oregon St. I think. I thought about Temple, but BG seems improved and I question whether or not Temple can stop BG's spread. I have to look into that more though.

Edit: Oh, and sorry about WMU last week.
Click to expand...

It just amazes me that we didn't go for two there...especially with a TO. Amidst all the craziness in the student section, my friends and I were freaking out that we were kicking the EPA. Why in the hell would you do that? Luckily it didn't come back to bite us, which is all I care about.

Honestly, that is what sports is all about. Getting to see a team (and fan base) who has suffered through years and years of misery finally beat their arch rival who has embarrassed them in years past. Getting to see one QB (Woodson) finally beat the other QB (Brohm), who had never lost to him. And getting to see it all in dramatic fashion. I'm not sure how everyone felt watching at home, but if you even realized the magnitude of this rivalry, you would understand how much that win meant to UK. First time in 30 years we've beaten a top 10 team, and it was Louisville to top it all off. I haven't felt that great about a sporting event since Boise State/Oklahoma back in January.

FWIW, I got kinda scared on Temple last week and took my chances anyway as I thought the line was way off - and nailed it. I think it's worth it to keep backing this team, especially when they are catching a ton to teams who really haven't proved worthy of laying so much.

I think UConn could win straight up, and I like Oregon State to keep it close. They can run right through that Arizona State D, I know that much.
 
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California probably hasn't forgotten about Arizona upsetting them last year...with them playing well and the Wildcats playing horrible, things could set up for a blowout.
Click to expand...

agreed
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Notre Dame +13.5 (+101)
Connecticut +10 (-107) - 0.5 units
Connecticut +9 (-103) - 0.5 units

Got one hell of a deal on that first UConn bet, but didn't get my other half matched and just went ahead and took it at +9. If they lose by more than 10, I lose a normal unit, and if they lose by 10, I only lose a 1/2 unit as opposed to losing a full unit with +8.5 at other books. So it seemed worth it to me to just go ahead and take it at two different numbers.
 
I prolly will not play it but Uconn looks solid to me. I just see that being a very low-scoring tight game. Nice line-shopping there.

GL this week, keep it rolling from last week.
 
Like Temple, but my Idaho Vandals are taking N. Ill down. Vandal pride!

GL, like most of the additions. I leaned Houston at first, but Caleb Hanie and co. are growing on me the more I research them. :cheers:
 
Dmoney,

I'm terrified of the hostile environment known as the Kibbie Dome (haha, what a sweet little place), but I'm rolling with the Huskies anyway. I think CSU can win SU, so gotta take my chances there.
 
Ole Miss +21 (+130)

I don't think I'll ever again get +130 on a 3 TD home dog in an SEC game...I really don't.

It's hard to step in front of that Florida train right now, but teams traditionally struggle as big faves down there in Oxford (Rebs are 9-4 ATS last 6 years as home dogs, including 3-0 last year with 3 easy covers). This is a horrible spot for Florida, as they're coming off a big time blowout over rival Tennessee, and have a revenge spot coming up with Auburn at home the following week. While they appear to be one of the SEC's finest, you can't forget this is a very young team, and I still believe their defense has the ability to struggle early in the season with so many new guys.

I think the injury to Adams/Schaeffer starting could maybe ignite the Rebs, as a QB change is the sort of thing that can really help when a team is struggling. Florida has no real film on Schaeffer from this year, so it's almost a wild card for them on how the Ole Miss offense will approach this game. He may not be a great QB, but he could potentially help this offense click if he plays to his potential.

This is a bad spot for the Gators, about the worst it can get, and I can definitely see them sleeping through this game. I won't be surprised at all when this one is still close in the 4th quarter and UF squeaks out a win.
 
South Carolina +16.5
Toledo ML (+158) - 0.775 units

Updated card:

Georgia +4
Notre Dame +13.5 (+101)
Connecticut +10 (-107) - 0.5 units
Connecticut +9 (-103) - 0.5 units
Colorado State +7 (-114)
Temple +21
New Mexico State +17
Northern Illinois +3
Kentucky +7 (-115)
Ole Miss +21 (+130)
South Carolina +16.5
Toledo ML (+158) - 0.775 units

I seriously have given faves a hard look all week and cannot find any I like enough to bet...
 
Nice looking card , lindetrain.

No love for the beavers in this spot ? kind of suprised a dog lover like you doesn't like a live one plus 11.5 or so.
 
Okay, this is very uncharacteristic of me and I'm not happy with myself, but...

Removing:

New Mexico State +17
Temple +21

Simply put I bet these games too quick and didn't allow myself to get a feel on them, and the last day or so I've begun to slowly lose confidence in each of them. I sorta did this last week with WMU and Toledo - just bet the games with no real reasoning. I don't want any part of either of these and think it looks like a split at best with them. So I'm just taking them off the card.

FWIW, I have a middle with Auburn -16.5, so if Auburn wins by 17 I actually make a unit. I will count that in my +/- units if the Tigers happen to do so.
 
vegaskyle said:
Nice looking card , lindetrain.

No love for the beavers in this spot ? kind of suprised a dog lover like you doesn't like a live one plus 11.5 or so.
Click to expand...

Ehhh...I see it going either way. On one hand, I think ASU is a bit overrated as I'm not impressed by their defense, but on the other, I think they can score quite a bit and I'm not sure the Beavers can keep up. Just can't really get a feel on the game.
 
lindetrain,

I think backing out of the NMSU play is smart, as this is a bad spot for them and I think the line's a bit low...
 
Ball State +22.5
Ball State ML (+1800) - 0.25 units

Not a good spot for the Huskers...just lost all their momentum with that embarrassment against USC last weekend. Now they have to play a team who can score on their defense and is riding high right now...
 
I lied to vegaskyle, I do like Oregon State...I really think that Cincy game was an aberration (outgained them by almost 100 yards!) and I like that both Canfield and Stroughter had excellent games in the tune-up last week.

Oklahoma State ML (+200) - 0.67 units
Oregon State +11.5

That should just about do it...let's update this thing:

Ole Miss +21 (+130)
Ball State +22.5
Ball State ML (+1800) - 0.25 units
South Carolina +16.5
Notre Dame +13.5 (+101)
Oklahoma State ML (+200) - 0.67 units
Colorado State +7 (-114)
Northern Illinois +3
Kentucky +7 (-115)
Connecticut +10 (-107) - 0.5 units
Connecticut +9 (-103) - 0.5 units
Toledo ML (+158) - 0.775 units
Georgia +4
Oregon State +11.5

And for the hell of it (will post just in case):

Georgia ML/Colorado State ML/Northern Illinois ML/Toledo ML/Kentucky ML - 0.05 units to win 8.39 units
 
how bout those Cats linde.......... so excited around here, we could be bowl eligible on Oct. 5th, so sick

Go BIG BLUE
 
Kmacc said:
how bout those Cats linde.......... so excited around here, we could be bowl eligible on Oct. 5th, so sick

Go BIG BLUE
Click to expand...

No doubt...Kmacc, I've tried to tell you time and time again that I lived next door to the Andrews...I played baseball with Tony and know him pretty well, and Kevin coached me in my first couple years of high school. I've heard about you from Tony and I just thought it was wild how we talk about these games over the web and we know some of the same guys...
 
Here's the tally for today:

9-4, +6.06 units

Really could've been much better...Houston sneaks in with the backdoor, Oregon State FINDS a way to not cover, and Ball State comes just short of me hitting a wild ML bet which woulda brought in 4.5 units...I also had that 5-team ML dog parlay which had 4 winners. I can't argue with the great day, but I could've potentially topped 10 units...
 
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