ALL ABOARD the lindetrain - Week 2

L

lindetrain

Pretty much a regular
YTD: 5-4, +1.61 units...Florida State -2 pending.

Things started out pretty ugly, as I got hammered on Friday with Syracuse and lost my early bet on Virginia. Things really came around as the night progressed, as I won just about everything. Hoping to hit FSU for a pretty solid opening week.

No more I-AA for me, unless it's I-A vs. I-AA. Those bets didn't even get close; there's no reason fucking with it. Just seems way too unpredictable for me.

Here are this weeks power ratings; they're bound to be a little off, as I'm not ready to make major adjustments until I see teams in a couple games. Lines are obviously going to be a bit inflated based off what happened in Week 1, so it comes as no surprise that a lot of my lines are off:

Middle Tennessee (+31.5) @ Louisville
Oregon State (-8.5) @ Cincinnati
Navy (+16) @ Rutgers
West Virginia (-22) @ Marshall
Miami (+12) @ Oklahoma
Akron (+27) @ Ohio State
Nebraska (-2) @ Wake Forest
Nevada (+8.5) @ Northwestern
Bowling Green (+11) @ Michigan State
Miami OH (+8.5) @ Minnesota
Duke (+17.5) @ Virginia
Ball State (-2) @ Eastern Michigan
Alabama (-7) @ Vanderbilt
Buffalo (+2) @ Temple
California (-10.5) @ Colorado State
Utah State (+18) @ Wyoming
NC State (+10) @ Boston College
Oregon (+7) @ Michigan
Boise State (-1.5) @ Washington
Fresno State (+19) @ Texas A&M
South Carolina (+6) @ Georgia
Troy (+24.5) @ Florida
Notre Dame (+14) @ Penn State
Kent State (+14) @ Kentucky
Missouri (-7) @ Ole Miss
North Carolina (+2) @ East Carolina
Air Force (+12) @ Utah
BYU (+9) @ UCLA
TCU (+11.5) @ Texas
Southern Miss (+13) @ Tennessee
Hawaii (-18.5) @ Louisiana Tech
Rice (+3) @ Baylor
San Diego State (+11) @ Washington State
Ohio (-5) @ UL Lafayette
Memphis (-6.5) @ Arkansas State
Toledo (+3) @ Central Michigan
Maryland (-23.5) @ Florida International
Mississippi State (-5.5) @ Tulane
Florida Atlantic (+21) @ Oklahoma State
San Jose State (+9) @ Kansas State
Indiana (+4) @ Western Michigan
Syracuse (+22) @ Iowa
South Florida (+5.5) @ Auburn
Virginia Tech (+10) @ LSU
New Mexico State (+4) @ New Mexico
Wisconsin (-17) @ UNLV
Colorado (+11.5) @ Arizona State
 
Some thoughts:

Not a great spot for Oregon State, but that line seems extremely soft. Cincinnati's 59-3 win last week is a bit deceiving, as they outscored their opponent 40-0 in the second half; it's clear Kelly was looking to start out with a bang. Oregon State looked outstanding on defense against Utah, and their running game was dominant. Can Cincinnati really shut them down? It seems like this line should be in the 5-6 range.

Northwestern looks appealing, even above a TD. I figured Nevada would struggle in Lincoln, but they were absolutely horrible. It's hard for me to call this a "revenge situation" as the better team did win last year - but as we know, things have really changed for both groups since then. There are a ton of questions for the Wolfpack right now, and this sets up pretty well for a blowout.

I know Wake Forest won't be as good as last year, and I know Nebraska is gonna be pretty tough, but damn it's such a bad spot for the Huskers. Can you really say they're gonna walk into Winston-Salem fully focused on the Deacons with USC on deck? I think they take this game lightly, and Wake gives them a run for their money. I'm seeing 7 some places, which seems really hard to pass on.

You gotta like Temple after seeing both teams last week. They actually threw the ball with some success against Navy, despite having Shelton completely shut down. Buffalo, on the other hand, got thrashed by golden boy Mike Teel and Rutgers.

Damn, Bowling Green wins in the Metrodome and still is catching three scores to another mediocre Big 10 team? I know Michigan State looked good against UAB, but as we're all soon to find out, that's not saying much. Bowling Green controlled the first 3 quarters and actually withstood the rally and pulled out the win in OT, which really impresses me. Can Michigan State stop their new passing attack and completely blow them out?

Colorado State will almost definitely be a play. I was really impressed with their offense against Colorado yesterday, and I felt like they should've won that game. Hanie did excellent and is complimented by Bell again; his absence killed them last year. Cal's offense was great last night, but their defense was pretty rough, giving up 31 with a Tennessee offense breaking in new receivers. Such a horrible spot for Cal as you know they're drained off that emotional win.

Should Washington really be catching a FG at home against Boise? Locker looked damn good the other night, running all over the place - Rankin had some success as well. Could this be like last year, where the Huskies started out great and kept winning as home dogs? This game really reminds me of that win over Fresno last year.

I'm so heartbroken they put the Tennessee line at 11. Absolutely horrible spot with Florida on deck, and it seems like they always lay in egg in an early non-conference home game. Southern Miss is experienced and well-coached, and could really put a scare into the Vols if you ask me.

Louisiana Tech may be the best play on the board. Anyone have any idea how long of a flight it is from Honolulu to Ruston, LA? La Tech won this meeting by 32 at home two years ago, which just goes to show how difficult this is on Hawaii. Yes, LT was horrible last year, but they return pretty much everyone, which couldn't hurt. I'm just not convinced Hawaii is good enough to go into this one and win by more than 4 TDs.

New Mexico State will probably beat New Mexico. How sad is it that the Lobos outgained UTEP by a wide margin yesterday, but found a way to lose? This game was awfully close last year, and Mumme has a pretty good team at hand - I think they look like a great play catching more than a TD.
 
Any thoughts on the current Alabama and Memphis lines. They are on my small favs lean list but haven't heard anyone mention em at all. I know Vandy is tough at home and Arkie State had a tenacious effort vs Texas and all that, so looking moreso for a reason not to take a shot with Alabama and Memphis both basically only laying a FG at this point.
 
I don't have a whole lot of interest in either Alabama or Memphis...I don't really like the games at all, actually.

Looks like I'll be riding plenty of dogs this week...
 
lindetrain said:
Yeah, no shit. Boy did Max Hall look good or what?

Everyone was on that Arizona train all preseason, and I'm pretty sure they're going to end up letting a lot of people down.
Click to expand...

I for one was on the train, but just for this game. I thought BYU lost a lot on offense and Zona could COVER THE SPREAD with defense with maybe a chance to win..I said in my writeup, this was likely the only game I bet on Arizona and well they did a good of making me 100% sure I never touch another game of theirs. They truly looked PATHETIC


 
Oregon State (-8.5) @ Cincinnati
Utah State (+18) @ Wyoming

nice to see some of my locked in games look this good on you rpower ratings as well.

did i miss the az st home to colorado ratings up there ?
 
No, because Wisconsin looked great against a much better team in Washington State last week. UNLV really did not impress me at Utah State, as it took them 3 quarters before they really had any control over the game.

I think there should be a good Wisconsin contingent at the game as well if I'm not mistaken - I heard they brought a lot of fans out there last time these two met in Las Vegas.
 
the game is already a sellout i believe and there will be more badger fans there than rebel fans. i missed the part above where you mentioned that you didnt adjust your pr at all since week1 games or i wouldnt have asked that question. unlv will really really struggle to score against wiscy but rebel defense showed a lot of improvement in 2nd half last week. will be interesting to see the total. due to large influx of wisconsin fans i may play wisconsin now and try to middle it later after they bet like crazy on the badgers at the local casinos.
 
i think the wisconsin folks are trying to have the largest tailgate in history or some such thing.
 
Wisconsin fans being in Vegas could play a part in why this line is so high - trying to adjust it so those Badger fans don't get Wisky at a cheap price. Probably not, but just a thought.

I did a little bit of adjusting, but not much - I don't think any team lost or gained more than 3 points on their PR.
 
New Mexico State +7.5
South Florida +7

NMSU has their best team yet under Mumme, and this seems like a great spot for them to finally pull out a win over their rivals. They hung tough last year and actually outgained the Lobos, but got behind by a couple scores and were unable to mount a comeback. Now they come into this game with some larger expectations, as they have just about everyone back from a team that really showed progress as last year went on. NM is coming off a sad, sad loss to UTEP, where they outgained the Miners but could not find the endzone. Between that and last year's home loss to SJSU in their bowl game, I just have not been impressed. I'm expecting big things out of the Aggies this year and that could very well start here.

I'm obligated to play South Florida, as I've been waiting for this game since I started studying back in the summer. Auburn confirmed my thoughts that they just are not very good, struggling against Kansas State until the final 5 minutes and nearly getting upset. Now they're seeing a team in USF who I believe is stronger all around than KSU; Grothe has the ability to hurt them either way, and the whole defense should have no problem stopping them. The advantage USF has in the trenches is huge, as they are excellent on the DL and Auburn appears to really be hurting on the OL. Cox will be in even more trouble this time around, and the backs won't have any room to run. I was glad to see Auburn run away with the KSU game at the end, as it sets this up perfectly for an upset.
 
i played missouri already at -6. i don't think you would be crazy for liking them. they are well coached --- orgeron is far superior to pinkel. they have talent and they are at home. with that said, missouri is one team where i know what i am getting. an offense that will score on mississippi. i am extremely confident in that. will mississippi score some against an average at best mizzu D , probably ... but i can't trust it. memphis torched mississippi with the passing game and i think missouri should be able to do the same. of course i thought virginia would beat wyoming by two td so what the hell do i know. i also thought ryan leaf would be a better qb than peyton manning. still, i dont think its crazy to think they can compete .. as they competed with top notch sec talent down the stretch a year ago and come off an important win for their program. kind of like both of your dogs above in usf and nmsu atleast.
 
lindetrain said:
For all the hype this game was getting in the preseason from everyone, I haven't seen much talk about it...the line hasn't done much of anything either.
Click to expand...

I had similar sentiments a little while ago. The lethargic first game may have given us a point or point-half more.
 
Dmoney416 said:
I think the fact that you would be fading Gary Pinkel as a road favorite is enough to say that you are not crazy for liking Ole Miss.
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I mentioned that over at the other place...they are still coached by Gary Pinkel, and they did go 0-3 ATS as road faves last year.
 
South Carolina +5.5 (-113)
Northwestern -8.5 (-113)

I have no problem with discussing my plays, but the write-ups are wearing me out...I'm going to play plenty of games by feel and not what I see on paper. For some games, write-ups just won't be that great.
 
well i dont think they jacked up the wisky line because of people from wisconsin betting on them in vegas since UNLV games are OTB in las vegas
 
Here are my revised ratings...spent around 3 hours looking through box scores to get them tighter last night:

Middle Tennessee (+36) @ Louisville
Oregon State (-5) @ Cincinnati
Navy (+15.5) @ Rutgers
West Virginia (-25.5) @ Marshall
Miami (+13.5) @ Oklahoma
Akron (+27) @ Ohio State
Nebraska (-6.5) @ Wake Forest
Nevada (+11) @ Northwestern
Bowling Green (+13.5) @ Michigan State
Miami OH (+8) @ Minnesota
Duke (+14.5) @ Virginia
Ball State (-4.5) @ Eastern Michigan
Alabama (-6) @ Vanderbilt
Buffalo (+3.5) @ Temple
UL Monroe (+25.5) @ Clemson
California (-11.5) @ Colorado State
Utah State (+22) @ Wyoming
NC State (+12) @ Boston College
Oregon (+6.5) @ Michigan
Boise State (-2) @ Washington
Fresno State (+18) @ Texas A&M
South Carolina (+5) @ Georgia
Troy (+25.5) @ Florida
Notre Dame (+19) @ Penn State
Kent State (+14.5) @ Kentucky
Missouri (-4.5) @ Ole Miss
North Carolina (+3) @ East Carolina
Air Force (+8) @ Utah
BYU (+9) @ UCLA
TCU (+11.5) @ Texas
Southern Miss (+12.5) @ Tennessee
Hawaii (-18.5) @ Louisiana Tech
Rice (+4.5) @ Baylor
San Diego State (+10.5) @ Washington State
Ohio (-4.5) @ UL Lafayette
Memphis (-4) @ Arkansas State
Toledo (+2.5) @ Central Michigan
Maryland (-25) @ Florida International
Mississippi State (-4) @ Tulane
Florida Atlantic (+20) @ Oklahoma State
San Jose State (+16) @ Kansas State
Indiana (+0.5) @ Western Michigan
Syracuse (+24) @ Iowa
South Florida (+5.5) @ Auburn
Virginia Tech (+10.5) @ LSU
New Mexico State (+3.5) @ New Mexico
Wisconsin (-19.5) @ UNLV
Colorado (+11) @ Arizona State

I didn't adjust these to get them closer to this week's line - I just spent a little more time analyzing last week's performances.
 
Last edited:
NC State +14

Just don't think I can get past this one. O'Brien knows the BC strengths and weaknesses, it's a considerable coaching mismatch in general, and NC State looked much better last week with Beck under center. There were a few weak spots in BC's impressive opener (the running game and pass D). If it weren't for a few key INTs by Tribble, they may not have won the game. This one should be close the whole way...
 
Like this one linde...think we see a wolfpack team that plays two halves of the football game this weekend...
 
Preseason line of BC -5.5 or so for this game and now after just one week it its 14? i should have played BC when i had the chance but there is no way in hell i would play them now. i like bc in the game straight up and hate the spot for ncstate but man i think you have value at that number. bc has to win by three scores ...... in an acc conference game ?? not on it but if i were at this number it would be ncstate too. good luck with it lind. Also .......... don't think BC runs it up if they have a chance to so that may leave backdoor open if the game does go poorly for the wolfpack.

gl
 
oregon state +5 ? assume that is a typo and should be minus.

unless the oregon state number is your true number my ratings are very similar to yours with exceptions on hawaii/latech and utahstate/wyoming as the only major major differences.
 
lindetrain said:
NC State +14

Just don't think I can get past this one. O'Brien knows the BC strengths and weaknesses, it's a considerable coaching mismatch in general, and NC State looked much better last week with Beck under center. There were a few weak spots in BC's impressive opener (the running game and pass D). If it weren't for a few key INTs by Tribble, they may not have won the game. This one should be close the whole way...
Click to expand...
but if it werent for a interception matt ryan threw on the first play of the game for a pick 6, or a fumble by a freshman in the redzone, this game wouldve been a beat down:cheers:
 
lindetrain said:
South Carolina +5.5 (-113)
Northwestern -8.5 (-113)

I have no problem with discussing my plays, but the write-ups are wearing me out...I'm going to play plenty of games by feel and not what I see on paper. For some games, write-ups just won't be that great.
Click to expand...
hey just curious why do you like the cats bro?
 
TicketMan said:
hey just curious why do you like the cats bro?
Click to expand...

If you look at last year, you'll notice NW was a completely different team with Bacher under center...beating Iowa, beating Illinois, hanging tough in the Big House, and getting up big on Michigan State before melting down. They return plenty of key guys to put up some points on offense, and I think their defense will have some success early on against some weaker competition.

Nevada is in complete fade mode right now until they get some things figured out, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Graziano went 8/24 in the opener, they only managed 185 total yards, and their top 2 RBs didn't do anything. They come into this game with absolutely no confidence, and I don't see how they vastly improve in one week.

The Wolfpack won this meeting last year, and things have changed quite a bit since then - I think this has the makings for a blowout.
 
vegaskyle said:
oregon state +5 ? assume that is a typo and should be minus.

unless the oregon state number is your true number my ratings are very similar to yours with exceptions on hawaii/latech and utahstate/wyoming as the only major major differences.
Click to expand...

Fixed it for you...
 
lindetrain said:
If you look at last year, you'll notice NW was a completely different team with Bacher under center...beating Iowa, beating Illinois, hanging tough in the Big House, and getting up big on Michigan State before melting down. They return plenty of key guys to put up some points on offense, and I think their defense will have some success early on against some weaker competition.

Nevada is in complete fade mode right now until they get some things figured out, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Graziano went 8/24 in the opener, they only managed 185 total yards, and their top 2 RBs didn't do anything. They come into this game with absolutely no confidence, and I don't see how they vastly improve in one week.

The Wolfpack won this meeting last year, and things have changed quite a bit since then - I think this has the makings for a blowout.
Click to expand...
im with you there man, good thoughts, i went to northwestern and was just curious to see what your thoughts were on the game, looking to be a nice revenge play as well, when they lost at reno last year. Northwestern rolls in this one, good luck:cheers:
 
vegaskyle said:
Preseason line of BC -5.5 or so for this game and now after just one week it its 14? i should have played BC when i had the chance but there is no way in hell i would play them now. i like bc in the game straight up and hate the spot for ncstate but man i think you have value at that number. bc has to win by three scores ...... in an acc conference game ?? not on it but if i were at this number it would be ncstate too. good luck with it lind. Also .......... don't think BC runs it up if they have a chance to so that may leave backdoor open if the game does go poorly for the wolfpack.

gl
Click to expand...


bc will definitely try to run this up to embarass the old coach. they hate tob and want to make us look really bad which wont be hard
 
Chalk city here...

Louisville -40
Penn State -17
UCLA -7
Colorado State +14

Was on the edge with all these, and decided to splash around a little bit and take my chances with them...
 
My card at this point (doubt I'll add much more, if anything):

Louisville -40
Northwestern -8.5
Colorado State +14
NC State +14
South Carolina +5.5
Penn State -17
UCLA -7
South Florida +7
New Mexico State +7.5
 
Kent State +13

After watching Louisville last night, you know Kentucky can't wait for next Saturday...this is the first time they have a legitimate chance to beat the Cards in years. Unfortunately, they have a dangerous team with a running game and mobile QB ahead, who has already proven they can play with the big boys. Horrible spot already, and it just got worse as Louisville played terrible yesterday and built up even more anticipation for the game.
 
I wouldn't consider Iowa St. the big boys, but I do like the spot for Kent St. to cover, as Kentucky is likely licking their chops after watching last nights disaster. Good play IMO, best of luck to you man

:cheers:
 
Washington +3

And the Big-10-fuck-this-we're-not-about-to-get-upset-at-home-again teaser special:

Minnesota -2.5 & Michigan -1

I think it was Lou Holtz's speech that did it for me. Once I heard that, I was convinced Michigan was gonna go out and whoop some ass.

I officially have money on every game on the card...haha
 
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