Alabama/Florida discussion...It's time!

the line opened at 10.5 and moved to 9.5. not sure why you think that particular spread means the books want people on UF. IMO the books are not taking a position on this game. why would they risk it? too much money ot made in juice by the sheer volume of $ that will be on it. you're post is pretty much garbage. lol

And of coarse, you know so much more, right? I live in Florida, read the papers and back it up with 2 nephews that go to UF. Anyways, like I told you above, what the hell do I know? haha. Money talks and bullshit walks bud. Talk to me after the game. :36_11_6:
 
http://www.heraldtribune.com/articl...orida_favored_by_10_points_to_beat_No__1_Tide

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Florida favored by 10 points to beat No. 1 Tide

KEY: Gator offense gets all the glory while Alabama relies on defense and a run game

Fightin' Gators
ASSOCIATED PRESS / STEVE CANNON


Florida quarterback Tim Tebow celebrates his second-quarter touchdown against Florida State in Tallahassee on Saturday. Florida faces No. 1 Alabama in the SEC title game this Saturday.


<!-- /MAIN PHOTO --><!-- BYLINE -->
By JOHN ZENOR THE ASSOCIATED PRESS


<!-- /BYLINE --><!-- PUBDATE -->Published: Tuesday, December 2, 2008 at 1:00 a.m.
Last Modified: Monday, December 1, 2008 at 11:00 p.m.
<!-- /PUBDATE -->TUSCALOOSA, Ala. - Alabama has pushed aside all comers on its way to a perfect regular season, climbed to the top of the rankings and stuck around for quite awhile.

<!-- GRAY BOX ARTICLE CONTENT--><!-- needs to go into global after beta/qa -->NO. 1 ALABAMA
CRIMSON TIDE
VS.
NO. 2 FLORIDA GATORS
WHEN: Saturday at 4 p.m.
WHERE:
Georgia Dome, Atlanta
TV: CBS



<!-- /GRAY BOX ARTICLE CONTENT-->Now, it's back to Square One for team No. 1: As an underdog in the Georgia Dome.
No. 2 Florida is a 10-point favorite to topple the top-ranked Crimson Tide on Saturday in the Southeastern Conference championship game in Atlanta, where 'Bama opened the season as an underdog to Clemson.
"I ain't worried about that at all," Tide cornerback Javier Arenas said. "It's been like that the whole season, starting with Clemson and going to Georgia. You're accustomed to it now."
Still, is that any way to treat a team that just walloped archrival Auburn 36-0? Then again, maybe the point spread is a compliment to Alabama (12-0) considering Florida's last eight opponents have come no closer than Vanderbilt's 28-point loss.
"As well as they've been playing, it doesn't surprise me," Tide linebacker Cory Reamer said. "They've been putting up 50 points, beating people by four touchdowns. Anybody that gets in their way, they're just mowing over.
"People have written us off as underdogs before and we've proven them wrong. It's nothing different."
Much of it could have to do with styles. The Tide has won with defense, special teams and the running game. Ho hum.
Florida has excelled in all those areas, too, but won by 58 points against a Kentucky team that Alabama eked out a 17-14 victory against and has dazzled with coach Urban Meyer's spread offense.
Maybe a team that routinely puts up huge offensive numbers is just more glamorous than one that is more known for shutting offenses down.
Arenas compares it to the New England Patriots facing the Baltimore Ravens in a big game.
Or as Tide linebacker Cory Reamer said: "Offense always gets the glory."
The Gators, meanwhile, even seemed a tad bemused by their status as fairly heavy favorites in a game between two teams vying for a spot in the BCS national championship game.
After all, even Florida has stumbled in a 31-30 loss to Mississippi before resuming its march through opponents. The Tide has had a couple of close calls but managed to remain unblemished behind a defense that ranks second nationally against the run and yields the third-fewest points. (Florida is 12th and third in those categories).
Ten points? "I don't know about that," Florida receiver David Nelson said. "They're 12-0 and from what we've seen on film, they're a really good team. They do everything right. They have a great defense from what I've seen.
"Wow, I don't know how you can favor a No. 2 over a No. 1 team."
Alabama is a potent running team that is a modest 28th in scoring offense and a humble 97th in passing.
The Tide's top offensive player is left tackle Andre Smith. Florida counters with Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow and do-it-all Percy Harvin.
Tebow also doesn't think the underdog status will affect how Alabama plays in the game.
"I think they're pretty mature," he said. "I think they've got mature coaches. I don't think they'll let that bother them. I don't think they worry about it, just like I don't think we'd worry about it if we were in their position.
"I think they're just going out there and trying to do their job like they have all year."
Harvin showing improvement
Florida's Percy Harvin limped around campus in a protective boot Monday and showed improvement, but coach Urban Meyer said his star receiver remained questionable for the SEC championship game.
"The great news in the training room today, it's very positive, very positive, a lot of thumbs up, including from the player, a big thumbs up, a smile on his face," Meyer said.
"The negative is it's a sprained ankle, and we know what sprained ankles mean. We're going to boot him and he will not do anything until later in the week."



This story appeared in print on page C1
 
And of coarse, you know so much more, right? I live in Florida, read the papers and back it up with 2 nephews that go to UF. Anyways, like I told you above, what the hell do I know? haha. Money talks and bullshit walks bud. Talk to me after the game. :36_11_6:

it was garbage because you site no sources and give no explanation. you just said you're WRONG and that he gave a thumbs up. You think Percy thinks he won't play, even if his ankle was fucked up royally? more than that though is the talk of what the books want you to take. "the line is totally begging for money on bama" jesus H, that sounds like covers talk.
 
thanks for the source. I appreciate the info but it tells me more than anything, that he's bummed up. Kids that depend on those ankles for their skill are killed by sprained ankles. I don't see how he's gonna be anywhere near what he has been all year.
 
The line is inflated because a good number of people made up their minds two weeks ago that they would take Florida over Bama in this game, no matter what the spread. That is, until they saw Florida as a DD favorite. How many "Florida will win the NC" posts have we seen the past few weeks? This line should get pretty even action - a lot more even than Fla -6 or Fla -3 (what I think the line should be) would have gotten. My read on this Alabama team is that Saban has had them well prepared for every game this year. They have avenged losses against teams like Miss St and Auburn who, although they both suck, have had Alabama's number in recent years. The way Bama has taken care of business the past couple weeks makes it clear to me that they have a good chance to win this game and I will gladly take the points.
 
What disturbes me is how Bama backers here can denigrate UF's schedule while managing to give mad props to Bama's season...y'all know they play in the same conference and UF had a tougher SOS, right?

Also, every Crimson Shades capper is giving props to Bama's D (rightfully so...at least to their run D) while ignoring the fact that UF has actually given up 12 less points on the season...:seeya:

And, the last fact all the Houndstooth wearing supporters seem to be missing is that UF is #1 in rushing in the SEC and has gotten over 1700 yards from their TB position.

So obviously, they are not a one dimensional, "fun-n-gun" type team....or a one dimensional "run-Timmy-run" type team...if Bama stops this juggernaut they definitely deserve a spot in the NC game.


Mully :cheers:
 
Favorites have been doing well and Florida has been cashing in every week for the public bettors. It has been easy this year, no analysis needed just take gators and cash your ticket this year--

However this game was set at 10 not to attract any money from BAMA, cause they could set it at 10 and get even action-- The real line is probably Florida -7, but Florida is like a HOT blonde Hooker who everyone wants to fuck but she is triple booked on a Friday night. So what happens is they raise her rates from $300/hour to $400 an hour and people are still calling to book a session with her.

In this spot it is likely that all the bettors will bet a game and get burned by a favorite like Florida in this spot who does not cover- We have seen this happen in years past so many times- However this team in Florida is pretty complete although some injuries may deplete them if defensive dudes cant play and Harvey--Florida definitely has some ridiculous athletes and players that look NFL ready already and also look like they are 30 years old on D, i dont know if they check birth certificates?

However if it can be done to beat Florida it would be a team like Alabama who can shorten the game, run the ball, play some smash mouth ball, and hit them hard on DEFENSE- That is the key the physicality of the game-
If anyone can do this it is probably the great NICHOLAS SABAN-
 
One way to check to see if Florida really has a speed advantage would be this--

Take the games that the had common opponents which was LSU-Georgia, Tenny-Miss-

Watch the game tape from both teams and see if you can notice if BAMA was a fast vs some players vs TENNY< LSU and GEORGIA as florida was?
This way you can get an idea if BAMA is fast enough or will they be like Florida state who was not fast enough--

This is a good idea as if someone watches the games you could see certain receivers on LSU and Georgia and running backs how fast they are vs BAMA, also look at BAMA linebackers to see if they are good at stopping the quick Rainey and Harvery.
 
I notice you didnt call Demps quik Sammy jajaja.

I am not a big Stat guy but this comes from Whatifsports.com

Playing 12 games against the 28th toughest schedule in college football, the Gators are in the top five in the country in scoring offense, scoring defense, turnover margin, yards-per-carry (for - 16th against), yards-per-pass-attempt (for and against) and punt returns (against - 7th for). In other words, kickoff returns and coverage are the team's only weaknesses. Against the 73rd toughest schedule in college football, Alabama is only in the top five in scoring defense, yards-per-carry against and yards-per-pass-attempt against. It's that simple. Florida is the far more dominant team overall. In the simulations, the Gators win and advance to the National Championship 88.5% of the time by an average score of 32-18.

Just an another opinion that some you of stat oriented guys may have missed.
 
Favorites have been doing well and Florida has been cashing in every week for the public bettors. It has been easy this year, no analysis needed just take gators and cash your ticket this year--

However this game was set at 10 not to attract any money from BAMA, cause they could set it at 10 and get even action-- The real line is probably Florida -7, but Florida is like a HOT blonde Hooker who everyone wants to fuck but she is triple booked on a Friday night. So what happens is they raise her rates from $300/hour to $400 an hour and people are still calling to book a session with her.

In this spot it is likely that all the bettors will bet a game and get burned by a favorite like Florida in this spot who does not cover- We have seen this happen in years past so many times- However this team in Florida is pretty complete although some injuries may deplete them if defensive dudes cant play and Harvey--Florida definitely has some ridiculous athletes and players that look NFL ready already and also look like they are 30 years old on D, i dont know if they check birth certificates?

However if it can be done to beat Florida it would be a team like Alabama who can shorten the game, run the ball, play some smash mouth ball, and hit them hard on DEFENSE- That is the key the physicality of the game-
If anyone can do this it is probably the great NICHOLAS SABAN-

While Percy being dinged isn't a positive he's been injured before and we've had players step up...Brandon James, Louis Murphy, Jeff Demps & Chris Rainey...also, I wouldn't count out seeing #1 on the field.

As far as the DTs go, we lose one (Antwine) and get one back @ 100% (Marsh)...it should be noted that both are Soph's, Antwine missed the first 5 games of the year with a back injury, and Marsh has had much better stats on the season. (Patchan is out until next year...Gators knew this before last week's game.)

Mully :cheers:
 
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I notice you didnt call Demps quik Sammy jajaja.

I am not a big Stat guy but this comes from Whatifsports.com

Playing 12 games against the 28th toughest schedule in college football, the Gators are in the top five in the country in scoring offense, scoring defense, turnover margin, yards-per-carry (for - 16th against), yards-per-pass-attempt (for and against) and punt returns (against - 7th for). In other words, kickoff returns and coverage are the team's only weaknesses. Against the 73rd toughest schedule in college football, Alabama is only in the top five in scoring defense, yards-per-carry against and yards-per-pass-attempt against. It's that simple. Florida is the far more dominant team overall. In the simulations, the Gators win and advance to the National Championship 88.5% of the time by an average score of 32-18.

Just an another opinion that some you of stat oriented guys may have missed.

:cheers:


I'm not a pure stats guy either as I believe EMOTION / SITUATIONS play an important part of capping 18-22 year olds...was just sick of hearing the "capping" takes on here pumping up Bama's season while denigrating UF's.

Mully
 
I, for one, don't like betting against this Florida team.

Having said that, Bama getting 10 frickin points is just way too hard to pass up. This team has found a way to win every single game they've played this season (thus far). I'm not saying that guarantees them a win in this case, but I firmly believe there is no coaching edge here for Florida, while they've had on in all prior games this season.

I'll take my chances with an undefeated Bama squad, getting rather disrespected by being the #1 team in the country, yet finding themselves a DD dog.
 
I, for one, don't like betting against this Florida team.

Having said that, Bama getting 10 frickin points is just way too hard to pass up. This team has found a way to win every single game they've played this season (thus far). I'm not saying that guarantees them a win in this case, but I firmly believe there is no coaching edge here for Florida, while they've had on in all prior games this season.

I'll take my chances with an undefeated Bama squad, getting rather disrespected by being the #1 team in the country, yet finding themselves a DD dog.

:shake:
 
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