AFC Championship Ravens @ Pats Discussion
- Thread starter nbafan88
- Start date
Jayhawk Nation
Voice of Reason
Like the over on first glance, hope the line gets to 10 and I will hop on the ravens
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
I just hate New England. That is all.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
i would feel comfortable with a ravens ticket
i can't envision a walkover at all. i do like the pats a bit more than in the past with their running game. kinda see a lower scoring game with both teams trying to own the LOS. hate the revenge part of it tho
don't know how to attack it, but i believe this will be the better of the two games
i can't envision a walkover at all. i do like the pats a bit more than in the past with their running game. kinda see a lower scoring game with both teams trying to own the LOS. hate the revenge part of it tho
don't know how to attack it, but i believe this will be the better of the two games
scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
Like NE here, and the more I think about it - like them even more. A few questions:
Anyone else feel like Flacco was luckier than he was good for two straight weeks? I just felt like he was throwing long rainbows for much of the game, and the receivers were able to run underneath of them. Don't see that happening with NE's corners.
As for the total - the weather for Sunday looks cold with wind in Foxboro. I realize a lot can change in five days, but something to keep an eye on as we move closer to Sunday. With the thread of 22 mph winds and temps in the teens, I definitely wouldn't go crazy and bet the over yet....
Anyone else feel like Flacco was luckier than he was good for two straight weeks? I just felt like he was throwing long rainbows for much of the game, and the receivers were able to run underneath of them. Don't see that happening with NE's corners.
As for the total - the weather for Sunday looks cold with wind in Foxboro. I realize a lot can change in five days, but something to keep an eye on as we move closer to Sunday. With the thread of 22 mph winds and temps in the teens, I definitely wouldn't go crazy and bet the over yet....
A
Al Burna
Guest
Pats by 2 tds..
L
Lareux
Guest
Would like to see what was said about this game last year...damn crash. I would imagine much of the same was said as NE was favored by 7. Baltimore seems to be the Patriots nemesis in the playoffs, always playing tight games, and even beating NE in 2010 in Foxborough as 3.5 pt dogs. It's pretty much the same situation as last year really, unless the line gets to 10, which it may.
L
Lareux
Guest
Agree. Wind is the one weather factor that influences the total more than any other. Rain and snow have nothing on wind when it comes to the scoring in a football game.
ArizonaKid
Pretty much a regular
Wasn't it windy as hell back in the 2006 NFC Championship game when the Bears beat the Saints 39-14 ?
L
Lareux
Guest
I'm sure there are outliers, and of course every game won't be low scoring in the wind. The point is that wind affects scoring more than snow or rain do. Unless we're talking about a monsoon type rainstorm or something along those lines. The wind affects the passing game as well as the kicking game very much.
G
Gyno
Guest
Let me ask a question.. Pats play a no huddle offense, Ravens defense has had to play a 174 plays the last couple of weeks. Can't the Pats take advantage of a tired old defense with a fast hurry up offense?
thoughts?
thoughts?
A
Al Burna
Guest
Absolutly ...run and gun...keep them on there toes..wear them down by the 4th.. Bill and brady ..
A
Al Burna
Guest
Mixin the run and pass up 2 its finest..play action all day
nbafan88
Pretty much a regular
[TABLE="class: tableOdds, width: 1164"]
<tbody id="oddsBody">[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: team"]1/20
6:30 PM
[TD="class: pct"] 62%
38%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 66%
34%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 69%
31%
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
<tbody id="oddsBody">[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: team"]1/20
6:30 PM
303 Baltimore Ravens
304 New England Patriots
[/TD]304 New England Patriots
[TD="class: pct"] 62%
38%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 66%
34%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 69%
31%
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
nbafan88
Pretty much a regular
With their 41-28 beat down of the Texans yesterday, Tom Brady became the winningest quarterback in postseason history and the New England Patriots set up yet another showdown with the Baltimore Ravens. These two teams have a storied history and their matchups over the past few years have made for must-see television.
In January of 2010, the two teams met in the divisional round of the playoffs with Baltimore listed as a 4-point road dog. The Ravens got on top early and cruised to a 33-14 victory. The next season, Baltimore was a 3-point dog in New England, but this time the Ravens were unable to emerge victorious — losing by a score of 23-20.
However, perhaps the most entertaining game was last season when these two teams met in the AFC Championship. After a gritty, back-and-forth battle, the Ravens found themselves down just three points in the final moments. A dropped pass by Baltimore’s Lee Evans cost the Ravens a win, and Billy Cundiff missed a 32-yard field goal in the waning seconds that would have sent the game into overtime, helping New England escape with yet another victory.
These teams met most recently in week 3 of the current season, this time with the game being played at M&T Stadium. The Ravens, who closed as 2.5-point favorites, out-gained the Pats by over 100 yards and kicked a 27-yard field goal as time expired to walk away with a 31-30 triumph.
Considering Baltimore’s past success against New England, many fans must have been surprised to see the Patriots open as a 7.5-point favorite at the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbook. In fact, in early betting Ray Lewis and company have received 64% of spread bets according to our NFL Playoffs betting trends. This makes them an extremely trendy, public underdog.
This lopsided public betting also reminds me of an old saying: “If it seems too good to be true, it probably is.” Using our BetLabs software, we determined that similar trendy dogs have been woeful for bettors and fruitful for sportsbooks.
Since 2004, favorites of 8 or more points receiving 50% or less of spread bets have gone 39-28 (58.2%) ATS with +9.71 units earned and a +14.5% return on investment (ROI).
If early line movement is any indication, the wise guys must agree with fading these trendy public dogs. The Patriots have already moved from -7.5 to -9.5 at Pinnacle despite receiving just one-third of spread wagers. This is an example of reverse line movement, which signifies that sharp money has come down on the home favorite.
We saw similar line movement in the NCAA Football National Championship game between Alabama and Notre Dame, where the Fighting Irish received two-thirds of public bets, yet moved from 7.5 to 10 point underdogs at most books. Because Notre Dame was ranked number one in the country (and also has an extremely broad and loyal fan base) the public was more than happy to take the points. Ultimately though, that sharp money was dead-on as the Crimson Tide easily cruised to a 42-14 win.
In January of 2010, the two teams met in the divisional round of the playoffs with Baltimore listed as a 4-point road dog. The Ravens got on top early and cruised to a 33-14 victory. The next season, Baltimore was a 3-point dog in New England, but this time the Ravens were unable to emerge victorious — losing by a score of 23-20.
However, perhaps the most entertaining game was last season when these two teams met in the AFC Championship. After a gritty, back-and-forth battle, the Ravens found themselves down just three points in the final moments. A dropped pass by Baltimore’s Lee Evans cost the Ravens a win, and Billy Cundiff missed a 32-yard field goal in the waning seconds that would have sent the game into overtime, helping New England escape with yet another victory.
These teams met most recently in week 3 of the current season, this time with the game being played at M&T Stadium. The Ravens, who closed as 2.5-point favorites, out-gained the Pats by over 100 yards and kicked a 27-yard field goal as time expired to walk away with a 31-30 triumph.
Considering Baltimore’s past success against New England, many fans must have been surprised to see the Patriots open as a 7.5-point favorite at the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbook. In fact, in early betting Ray Lewis and company have received 64% of spread bets according to our NFL Playoffs betting trends. This makes them an extremely trendy, public underdog.
This lopsided public betting also reminds me of an old saying: “If it seems too good to be true, it probably is.” Using our BetLabs software, we determined that similar trendy dogs have been woeful for bettors and fruitful for sportsbooks.
Since 2004, favorites of 8 or more points receiving 50% or less of spread bets have gone 39-28 (58.2%) ATS with +9.71 units earned and a +14.5% return on investment (ROI).
If early line movement is any indication, the wise guys must agree with fading these trendy public dogs. The Patriots have already moved from -7.5 to -9.5 at Pinnacle despite receiving just one-third of spread wagers. This is an example of reverse line movement, which signifies that sharp money has come down on the home favorite.
We saw similar line movement in the NCAA Football National Championship game between Alabama and Notre Dame, where the Fighting Irish received two-thirds of public bets, yet moved from 7.5 to 10 point underdogs at most books. Because Notre Dame was ranked number one in the country (and also has an extremely broad and loyal fan base) the public was more than happy to take the points. Ultimately though, that sharp money was dead-on as the Crimson Tide easily cruised to a 42-14 win.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Ridley rocking the jumpsuit, rainbow themed moon-boots and sequined backpack to practice this week at Gilette...
<noscript></noscript>
<noscript></noscript>
nbafan88
Pretty much a regular
from rotoworld
Sunday's 6:30PM ET Game
Baltimore @ New England
Popularly left for dead after top corner Lardarius Webb (ACL) and linebacker Ray Lewis (triceps tear) suffered major mid-October injuries, the resilient Ravens have trekked to the AFC title game despite dropping four of their final five regular season games. Rather quietly, though, Baltimore has played top-notch football since mid-December. Leave out a Week 17 game in which they sat starters at Cincinnati, and the Ravens have knocked off the Giants, Colts, and Broncos by a combined 95-58 margin. It may seem cliché or oversimplistic to deem the Ravens a hard-nosed team that refuses to go down without a fight, but that's precisely who they are. And they've never laid down for Bill Belichick's teams. ... Joe Flacco has been a big part of that. In Flacco's last three New England meetings, he's completed 77-of-110 passes (70 percent) for 973 yards (8.85 YPA), seven touchdowns, and two interceptions. All three games were decided by three points or fewer, and the Ravens defeated the Patriots 31-30 in Week 3 this regular season. The Pats' defense has improved markedly since then by adding No. 1 cornerback Aqib Talib via trade and shifting Devin McCourty to free safety, where he has flourished, but the historical performance suggests Flacco will be on top of his game. New England's offense is inevitably going to rack up yardage and points, so Flacco's performance is most critical to Baltimore's chances. ... During the regular season, the Patriots surrendered the third most receptions, third most yards, and sixth most touchdowns in the NFL to tight ends. Texans TEs Owen Daniels and Garrett Graham also racked up 11 catches for 94 yards at New England in the Divisional Round. The Patriots' linebackers struggle in coverage, so look for Dennis Pitta to play a leading role in Baltimore's passing attack.
While Belichick is famous for scheming to minimize the impact of his opponent's top player, he's had mixed results with Ray Rice. In Rice's five career meetings with New England, the Ravens' feature back has amassed 518 yards and three touchdowns on 102 carries (5.08 YPC), chipping in 19 catches for 147 additional yards. Rice hung 150 total yards and a score on the Pats in Week 3, topping 5.0 yards per carry. Baltimore's offense is dangerous when two-dimensional, and it'll be that if Flacco and Rice further their past successes against the Pats in conference championship week. ... New England cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Alfonzo Dennard will attempt to jam Ravens outside speedsters Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones with physical press coverage around the line of scrimmage. Talib and Dennard can be vulnerable deep, but getting by them is a daunting task. In the slot, Pats 5-foot-10, 195-pound nickel back Kyle Arrington will have his hands full with 6-foot-1, 223-pound Anquan Boldin over the middle and down the seam. Over Baltimore's last three full games, Boldin leads the team in catches (18) and receiving yards (309). Although Boldin lacks explosiveness as a route runner and rarely creates separation, his power and toughness will be difficult for smallish Arrington to handle. Getting receivers open has been an ongoing struggle for Baltimore throughout Flacco's career. If Smith, Boldin, and Pitta can win their man-to-man matchups, however, Flacco is capable of putting the offense on his back.
Tom Brady's box-score stats in the Week 3 Ravens-Patriots game don't particularly stand out (335 yards, one touchdown), but he was surgical against a Baltimore defense that generated little to no pressure. Brady roasted RCB Cary Williams with Brandon Lloyd (9-108), and Wes Welker (8-142) was an unstoppable slot machine as Baltimore oddly left him in coverage against tight-hipped safeties and linebackers. Unfortunately for Brady, the Ravens' defense has improved since then. Ex-special teams ace Corey Graham has proven a more-than-adequate replacement for Webb at slot corner. Terrell Suggs has returned from an Achilles' injury and is coming off a two-sack Divisional Round, also making his presence felt versus the run with a whopping ten tackles in last week's Mile High win. After a slow start, bookend edge rusher Paul Kruger is hurrying the passer at a level higher than any defender left in the postseason. And whereas the Patriots had Hall of Fame-caliber tight end Rob Gronkowski for all 80-plus snaps in Week 3, Gronk won't be available for any Sunday after re-fracturing his arm. Put simply, the Pats' offense isn't as good as it was when they lost to Baltimore. And the Ravens' defense is better. ... Expect Brady to attack Williams with Lloyd again, while Aaron Hernandez challenges 37-year-old Ray Lewis in pass coverage over the middle. Lloyd and Hernandez figure to be the Pats' primary means of passing success Sunday as Welker presumably tangles with Graham and Gronk dons street clothes.
Remember the Week 16 Broncos-Ravens game? Baltimore's defense got pushed around and Knowshon Moreno played unlikely hero in Denver's 33-17 win. As alluded to above, the Ravens have been a different team since, and it starts up front. Over its last four games, Baltimore has limited the Giants, Bengals, Colts, and Broncos run games to a combined 391 yards and a single rushing touchdown on 106 carries (3.69 YPC). Stevan Ridley will be the best back the Ravens have faced over the past five weeks, but Baltimore can keep Ridley in check if it continues to control the line of scrimmage. The Ravens' run defense is far from the pushover unit it was earlier in the season. ... Although his role for this game is unclear, Patriots No. 2 back Shane Vereen is a wildcard player Belichick has in his back pocket. Coming off a breakout, three-touchdown and 124-total-yard Divisional Round, Vereen's playing time increased only because Danny Woodhead exited early with a thumb injury against the Texans. Vereen brings to the table playmaking ability, especially in the passing game, but could return to a bit role if Woodhead is medically cleared for the AFC Championship. Belichick could also "promote" Vereen ahead of Woodhead after the dynamic performance. While Vereen is a weapon with which the Patriots can create mismatches, Woodhead has been a staple of New England's offense all season. It will be a situation to watch.
Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Patriots 24
Sunday's 6:30PM ET Game
Baltimore @ New England
Popularly left for dead after top corner Lardarius Webb (ACL) and linebacker Ray Lewis (triceps tear) suffered major mid-October injuries, the resilient Ravens have trekked to the AFC title game despite dropping four of their final five regular season games. Rather quietly, though, Baltimore has played top-notch football since mid-December. Leave out a Week 17 game in which they sat starters at Cincinnati, and the Ravens have knocked off the Giants, Colts, and Broncos by a combined 95-58 margin. It may seem cliché or oversimplistic to deem the Ravens a hard-nosed team that refuses to go down without a fight, but that's precisely who they are. And they've never laid down for Bill Belichick's teams. ... Joe Flacco has been a big part of that. In Flacco's last three New England meetings, he's completed 77-of-110 passes (70 percent) for 973 yards (8.85 YPA), seven touchdowns, and two interceptions. All three games were decided by three points or fewer, and the Ravens defeated the Patriots 31-30 in Week 3 this regular season. The Pats' defense has improved markedly since then by adding No. 1 cornerback Aqib Talib via trade and shifting Devin McCourty to free safety, where he has flourished, but the historical performance suggests Flacco will be on top of his game. New England's offense is inevitably going to rack up yardage and points, so Flacco's performance is most critical to Baltimore's chances. ... During the regular season, the Patriots surrendered the third most receptions, third most yards, and sixth most touchdowns in the NFL to tight ends. Texans TEs Owen Daniels and Garrett Graham also racked up 11 catches for 94 yards at New England in the Divisional Round. The Patriots' linebackers struggle in coverage, so look for Dennis Pitta to play a leading role in Baltimore's passing attack.
While Belichick is famous for scheming to minimize the impact of his opponent's top player, he's had mixed results with Ray Rice. In Rice's five career meetings with New England, the Ravens' feature back has amassed 518 yards and three touchdowns on 102 carries (5.08 YPC), chipping in 19 catches for 147 additional yards. Rice hung 150 total yards and a score on the Pats in Week 3, topping 5.0 yards per carry. Baltimore's offense is dangerous when two-dimensional, and it'll be that if Flacco and Rice further their past successes against the Pats in conference championship week. ... New England cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Alfonzo Dennard will attempt to jam Ravens outside speedsters Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones with physical press coverage around the line of scrimmage. Talib and Dennard can be vulnerable deep, but getting by them is a daunting task. In the slot, Pats 5-foot-10, 195-pound nickel back Kyle Arrington will have his hands full with 6-foot-1, 223-pound Anquan Boldin over the middle and down the seam. Over Baltimore's last three full games, Boldin leads the team in catches (18) and receiving yards (309). Although Boldin lacks explosiveness as a route runner and rarely creates separation, his power and toughness will be difficult for smallish Arrington to handle. Getting receivers open has been an ongoing struggle for Baltimore throughout Flacco's career. If Smith, Boldin, and Pitta can win their man-to-man matchups, however, Flacco is capable of putting the offense on his back.
Tom Brady's box-score stats in the Week 3 Ravens-Patriots game don't particularly stand out (335 yards, one touchdown), but he was surgical against a Baltimore defense that generated little to no pressure. Brady roasted RCB Cary Williams with Brandon Lloyd (9-108), and Wes Welker (8-142) was an unstoppable slot machine as Baltimore oddly left him in coverage against tight-hipped safeties and linebackers. Unfortunately for Brady, the Ravens' defense has improved since then. Ex-special teams ace Corey Graham has proven a more-than-adequate replacement for Webb at slot corner. Terrell Suggs has returned from an Achilles' injury and is coming off a two-sack Divisional Round, also making his presence felt versus the run with a whopping ten tackles in last week's Mile High win. After a slow start, bookend edge rusher Paul Kruger is hurrying the passer at a level higher than any defender left in the postseason. And whereas the Patriots had Hall of Fame-caliber tight end Rob Gronkowski for all 80-plus snaps in Week 3, Gronk won't be available for any Sunday after re-fracturing his arm. Put simply, the Pats' offense isn't as good as it was when they lost to Baltimore. And the Ravens' defense is better. ... Expect Brady to attack Williams with Lloyd again, while Aaron Hernandez challenges 37-year-old Ray Lewis in pass coverage over the middle. Lloyd and Hernandez figure to be the Pats' primary means of passing success Sunday as Welker presumably tangles with Graham and Gronk dons street clothes.
Remember the Week 16 Broncos-Ravens game? Baltimore's defense got pushed around and Knowshon Moreno played unlikely hero in Denver's 33-17 win. As alluded to above, the Ravens have been a different team since, and it starts up front. Over its last four games, Baltimore has limited the Giants, Bengals, Colts, and Broncos run games to a combined 391 yards and a single rushing touchdown on 106 carries (3.69 YPC). Stevan Ridley will be the best back the Ravens have faced over the past five weeks, but Baltimore can keep Ridley in check if it continues to control the line of scrimmage. The Ravens' run defense is far from the pushover unit it was earlier in the season. ... Although his role for this game is unclear, Patriots No. 2 back Shane Vereen is a wildcard player Belichick has in his back pocket. Coming off a breakout, three-touchdown and 124-total-yard Divisional Round, Vereen's playing time increased only because Danny Woodhead exited early with a thumb injury against the Texans. Vereen brings to the table playmaking ability, especially in the passing game, but could return to a bit role if Woodhead is medically cleared for the AFC Championship. Belichick could also "promote" Vereen ahead of Woodhead after the dynamic performance. While Vereen is a weapon with which the Patriots can create mismatches, Woodhead has been a staple of New England's offense all season. It will be a situation to watch.
Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Patriots 24
Yup, Boldin should have a monster game.
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