AFC Championship: Jacksonville @ New England Discussion

My counter to the article would be that some of the games it mentioned were also really bad spots for Jags. Jets was after London and San Fran was west coast. Jags held Titans to 15 points in week 17 despite abysmal offense.
 
Titans also swept Jax and if Brady is in way different league that Mariota. NE offense and defense are heads and tails better than Ten. Titans hung 37 and 15 on Jax while Jags Scored 16 and 10 Vs Ten.

I think Jax & NE will be looking at Pitt & Tenny tapes a lot this week.
 
ProV1Colt said:
Well that is the question. What is Jax preparing for or expecting to see from BB? What formations and personnel are the Pats gonna throw at Jax. Seems to me that NE has the advantage there. NE can come at you many different ways. How do you and what do you prepare for in a week?
It all starts up front. Can Jax get pressure on Brady. If they can, then the question is can Brady hit the hot route for a quick gain and can Jax tackle to prevent yacs.
I personally think Jax will be able to do what Tenn could not and that is defend the short pass and tackle quickly and make NE move the ball slowly. The next battle for Jax D is minimize scoring. Even if they do defend well and not give up TDs, Gostkowski can win this gm with 4-5 FGs.
However is this the key to the game or is it actually NE D vs Jax O? Is this the battle in the war everyone should be more focused on?
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I think you nailed it right on the head.

Let’s go back to all Patriots losses within the past decade and we will find a commonality.

In almost every loss it’s about the same thing. The opposing offense actually made plays scored points and OUT PERFORMED the patriots offense.

From the days of the Ravens beating the Patriots the ravens made the plays offensively. Lee Evans drop and billy cunfiff miss were examples of a team having pats beat but screwing up.

49ers best pats when kapernick was qb. Kapernick made several throws and miners scored many points.

This year Kc offense our performed pats offense also.
Even Houston nearly beat the Pats with desean watson putting up over 30 points.
Carolina beat patriots by scoring over 30 points.

Atlanta outscored pats but couldn’t find a few more points last season.

Bottom line is when the pats lose the other team out performs them. They need to score on the pats and control the ball and control the game.

The only exception would be the old 17-13 win that only a handful teams in the history of the league are good enough to do.

I believe jags won’t win straight up. If they do their offense would have to control the gane and make plays all game long
 
VirginiaCavs said:
My counter to the article would be that some of the games it mentioned were also really bad spots for Jags. Jets was after London and San Fran was west coast. Jags held Titans to 15 points in week 17 despite abysmal offense.
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Not to mention the San Fran game was after they clinched division, to me that game is utterly meaningless, young team in game after achieving their goal of winning div for 1st time in forever, think most were on sf if I remember correctly as we all knew it was a bad spot for jags.
 
Bortles is so up-and-down. Awesome two seasons ago garbage last season and seems to be both this season at different times. Hopefully the Foxboro wind doesn't make his little touch passes fly into nowhere like against Buffalo...disconcerting to think about how much is reliant on this guy.

Obviously the article isn't presenting a formula, although it can be tempting to read it as such. Like the Jags lost to the Rams. The Jags gave up so many points to the Steelers because of how friggin' awesome AB is. If the offense was better vs the Titans, it could have won Week 17. Big difference between its O in Week 17 and Wildcard round (even though Bills' run D has such weak numbers) and against Pitt. The defense needs to make big plays. The team needs to win the turnover battle.. This game can come down to a strip sack.
 
As I hear all the bobble heads on local sports radio (I've heard much more of that than any national shows this week) talk about what a easy path pats have to another Super Bowl I can't help but think A) these guys are retarded (commen thought for me for most our local guys) and B) I simply don't believe for one second pats are happy about jags being here instead of their whipping boy steelers. Coughlin and his defenses are the only thing standing in way of pats having 2 more rings and a undefeated championship under their belts. If steelers were playing this game I suppose a few would be talking them up but I'd already have my pats bet in and consider them winning a foregone conclusion. Maybe I'm wrong as that happens a lot, I just don't see this being easy at all for pats.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Bortles is so up-and-down. Awesome two seasons ago garbage last season and seems to be both this season at different times. Hopefully the Foxboro wind doesn't make his little touch passes fly into nowhere like against Buffalo...disconcerting to think about how much is reliant on this guy.

Obviously the article isn't presenting a formula, although it can be tempting to read it as such. Like the Jags lost to the Rams. The Jags gave up so many points to the Steelers because of how friggin' awesome AB is. If the offense was better vs the Titans, it could have won Week 17. Big difference between its O in Week 17 and Wildcard round (even though Bills' run D has such weak numbers) and against Pitt. The defense needs to make big plays. The team needs to win the turnover battle.. This game can come down to a strip sack.
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He is certainly inconsistent, so is/was Eli, only matters how he plays now that they here. Yea he stunk it up vs bills but his legs were a huge decider in that one, he was great last week, I actually think he will be good enough/make enough plays and avoid the mistakes he needs to here. Pats defense may be much improved over early in the season but they far from great. I don't subscribe to the theory that steelers shredded jags d meaning anything for this game, steelers made some huge plays on 4th downs at opportune times with playmakers pats don't have and Ben avoiding pressure like Brady not really capable of doing. We all know this a week to week league and I just don't think taking a lot from the results last week a good way to go about what to expect out of jags defense this week, but we shall see.
 
Agree completely. It‘s BS to put weight on 42 points. Then of course to ignore what Jags O did. It’d a double standard Can‘t be blinded by last week‘s results. Look at what Jags D did before AB and Ben’s mobility did just like what you said and what BAR said. And you forgot to mention the 4th down success—which wouldn‘t have been a thing in a closer game. Giving another chance for AB to pull down another miracle is huge. Jags D will only be refocused after giving up so many points just like after the San Fran debacle.
 
I just flipped on cowherd and heard this prick say jags arnt even a playoff team, they were lucky Watson got hurt. What a fuckin joker. Of course he just loved steelers last week too and basically gave jags no chance in that game either.
 
Media full of shit. Not about merit but about having fame, so you get a lot of shitheads who have a name but aren‘t worth listening to for a second. Its impressive to me how much credence and legitimacy one‘s voice receives just for being on television
 
Bookmaker has NE -7 right now. This is just basic gambling 101. More for the lurkers. If you like NE you must play them now. This will not go to 6.5 as it's wayyy too much of a liability to the books if they ever went to that number. More likely is that it goes back the other way. If you are on the Jags and didn't get the best number, obviously wait.
 
Capaholic said:
Bookmaker has NE -7 right now. This is just basic gambling 101. More for the lurkers. If you like NE you must play them now. This will not go to 6.5 as it's wayyy too much of a liability to the books if they ever went to that number. More likely is that it goes back the other way. If you are on the Jags and didn't get the best number, obviously wait.
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Cap what are you feeling?

I’m feeling this game might be easier to predict a total than a side?

This game has the recipe to hit under especially in the first half. It can hit because of running and defenses being stout .
 
MANEKI NEKO said:
Have you seen any signs buddy?

The universe had been quiet?

I have not received any obvious signs from the universe.

Let me know if the universe tells you anything ?
Click to expand...

Nothing yet my friend. I will let you know if I do...

:handshake2:
 
MANEKI NEKO said:
Cap what are you feeling?

I’m feeling this game might be easier to predict a total than a side?

This game has the recipe to hit under especially in the first half. It can hit because of running and defenses being stout .
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I think a 1q or 1h under is a really good play at this point. I think there's going to be a lot of "feeling things out" the first few drives and that could wipe at least 10 mins off the clock.

Side? Hard not to like NE at only 7. I was rooting more for it to hit the other key number of 10.
 
Cap I feel with Peyton retired abd the defenses having caught up with the spread offenses.

It appears that when 2 teams play the first half tends to go under. I’ve noticed this a lot.

Defenses know how to stop the spread. Teams are running the ball way more. Jags will burn clock like crazy.
If they can limit the pats it will go under easily in 1 half
 
Capaholic said:
I think a 1q or 1h under is a really good play at this point. I think there's going to be a lot of "feeling things out" the first few drives and that could wipe at least 10 mins off the clock.

Side? Hard not to like NE at only 7. I was rooting more for it to hit the other key number of 10.
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Totally could be a feeling out process. I could see an easy 8 minutes being burned by teams just running and doing nothing of significance with the ball.

I feel that both teams are not a threat to score long tds like Pittsburgh was doing. Jags don’t have a deep passing attack. Pats don’t have any long passes except for crooks who is too small with small hands that doesent work in cold weather.

Even if the pats score a td or a fgoal they will take 4-6 minutes off the clock.

All we need is a few stalled drives or a few fgoal by patriots and we will be under 20 points at halftime bro.

I’m feeling this under.

Also the scoring bursts seem to happen in the fourth quarter like in Minny saints and Pittsburgh jaxonvolle.

First half seems the reasonable half to be lower scoring.

Under 23–

I don’t see a 14-10 here.
Or a 17-7 by pats?

If haxoville hold patriots to under 14 I think this is an easy winner.
 
I grabbed +10-110 last sunday (posted in ingame) which within 5 minutes was +10-140. Was thinking no way the line gets better, maybe trade off a little....but did NOT expect a move past 8.5. From a line move perspective they likely get more Pats $$$ even at 8....why drop to a 7? Making it very tempting for everyone to play that easy Pats-1 on a teaser....

My chief concern with the Jags is Fournette's ankle. If he can't cut I don't see how they keep the Pats d off balance. Side note Yeldon has been great on third downs for jax, nice compliment to Lenny and could give the Pats trouble. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jax take a couple early shots downfield. They aren't going to comeback from a 2 score lead otr vs Brady, so it's imperative to score tds early.

This whole notion that the Jags d is suddenly exposed because of last week is redic. They owned the Steelers offense 1sth and played physical until the end. They have now won 2 playoff games in 2 totally different ways.
 
Yeah Lex,

This line is wacky right now.

I do think we'll see it come back this weekend towards 8/8.5 though.

Lenny is the big key indeed, imo.

Good points all the way around.
 
Hard to say whether this Brady thing is (significantly) real or just smokescreen. You'd have to saw the guy's arm off for him not to play but if it is Brady's throwing thumb that's a big deal. Single most important digit for a QB.
 
I think the books believe there is something to the Brady hand issue, which is why the line has been allowed to fall. Was just a short video clip but that thumb looked fairly immobile in the glove. He squeezed his left hand but never his right.
 
Im guessing everybody has caught up to Bortles scrambling. I do love that in playoffs he ducks head for 1st down. Do anything to keep ball and drive. That is real intangible
 
Gandolf said:
Agree with Sammy that the 1st half under looks very good.
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Yes it does appear to look promising.

One factor which I think will push the game under fir the first half is pats red zone defense. Pats red zone defense is very very good, I believe the best.

Jags have a solid physical bunch of guys. These type of teams can generate enough pressure on s few downs that result in brady incompletions and hurries.
We saw this earlier with Miami rushing Brady a lot and harassing him although i believe Gronk was suspended for that match.
Atlanta pressured brady a lot with Grady jarrertt last year forcing brady incompletions.

Pats will try their usual long 8-12 plays to try and score tds. Jags will get pressure on a few of those 12 play drives. This will result in punts and fgoal attempts.

I can see a lower scoring match where the defenses dictate the pace and flow. Both teams have defenses that are capable of shutting the opposing offense out for at least a quarter.

I see a lower scoring match. Patriots can play these lower scoring games but only vs certain type of teams.
I believe jaxonville is one of those teams. They will run the ball a lot try short passes and no hurry up.

Pats will try their usual 8-12 short passing offense. However jags are capable of at least making brady double clutch the ball and try contested passes.
 
This patriots offense isn’t as lethal as last years.

Edelman is the safety blanket that brady always goes to when he needs a first down.

The game without the Gronk vs Miami exposed the fact that if Edelman and Gronk are out the rest of the pats receivers are very weak. Below nfl average.

Hogan is nothing special.
AMENDOLA only goes short and is no threat deep

Crooks is one of the worst wideouts in the league. All he can do is run deep, more suited to a dome.

If the Jags can stop the 12-20 yard easy passes to the Gronk the truth is the pats can be stopped. It’s all about stopping both Edelman and Gronk.

If a team does that yiu will beat the pats every time.

Somehow though the patriots are going to use a formation to get Gronk 1 on 1 vs Paul POSLUNSKY.

The only way to stop the Gronk is for the defense as a unit to play physical and jam hit block attack the Gronk.

Also completely disagree with the jags defensive coordinator saying they won’t change their defense for 1 player. This is the arrogant ego based typical thinking of losing nfl coordinators.

What is Bellichek rule? He won’t allow the other teams best player to beat him. It’s not allowed. It just isn’t allowed.
If Bellichek was coaching against the Gronk he would not allow him to beat his team. He would make sure to cover the Gronk and take him out of the game.





Weather will also aid. Hope for wind or freezing rain etc.
 
I think with the line dropping like it has, there's no way it's a smokescreen (Brady). We have been around long enough. Vegas isn't going to be fooled. And having been heavily involved in a Division 1 program, i can say with certainty there are snitches who leak out info for gambling purposes. And like journalism, these stories are usually seconded and thirded before they are believed. I think there is something very wrong with his hand. But the books are too afraid to go any lower because Tom with even 2 fingers and a good game plan could prob make it work.
 
Listening to WEEI and the talking heads are definitely showing a level of concern about Brady. Although they still put on the "we're still going to win" brave face.
 
Meanwhile across town on the Sports Hub, we got Sully from Southie saying it doesn't matter and that Hoyer would win anyways.

^names have been made up to protect the innocent.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Im guessing everybody has caught up to Bortles scrambling. I do love that in playoffs he ducks head for 1st down. Do anything to keep ball and drive. That is real intangible
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Unless you simply devote a guy to spying him it a very hard thing to deal with, obviously doing that opens other things up especially for the backs with the zone read plays. Just the threat helps the numbers game for blocking on run plays. Then on 3rd downs the potential for him scrambling for a 1st slows down the pass rush as they have to be mindful of it and not get too far up field.
 
Capaholic said:
I think with the line dropping like it has, there's no way it's a smokescreen (Brady). We have been around long enough. Vegas isn't going to be fooled. And having been heavily involved in a Division 1 program, i can say with certainty there are snitches who leak out info for gambling purposes. And like journalism, these stories are usually seconded and thirded before they are believed. I think there is something very wrong with his hand. But the books are too afraid to go any lower because Tom with even 2 fingers and a good game plan could prob make it work.
Click to expand...

The potential to get middled has to be a real concern for them so the fact they willing to come down to 7 makes me think there has to be something to it.
 
something is afoot here. everyone kind of joked at first that "of course they are saying brady is injured, classic bellichick gamesmanship!" but something is wrong there.


ooooor he comes out and throws 4 tds and gets treatment like the schilling bloody sock game or the MJ flu game
 
2daBank said:
Unless you simply devote a guy to spying him it a very hard thing to deal with, obviously doing that opens other things up especially for the backs with the zone read plays. Just the threat helps the numbers game for blocking on run plays. Then on 3rd downs the potential for him scrambling for a 1st slows down the pass rush as they have to be mindful of it and not get too far up field.
Click to expand...

Bank, you are as knowledgeable as anybody on this site. I learn a great deal from you. You see things well. GL this weekend.
 
When did this supposed injury occur? During the Tennesee game or after in practice? Or during a crazy Guerrero Alex massage?

It’s tough to say but apparently brady wasn’t practicing.

With the brady injury might they run the ball more?

Also with a thumb injury it may be tougher on a qb that throws a lot and also that makes a lot of short quick throws. If the thumb is hurt he may not be able to squeeze his thumb hard and grip the ball for the quick throws.

Thumb injury could effect 4-5 throws in this game effecting the outcome.

But it could be typical Bellichek bullshit and there could be no injury at all and it could be another smokescreen to make the pats underdogs again.

It seems that this years patriots are obsessed with being the underdogs!
 
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