AFC Championship: Jacksonville @ New England Discussion

It’s simple.

Jags cover Gronk = a Jags cover $$$$

Jags no cover Gronk= PATS COVER$$$

We in our era are watching the greatest tight end pass catcher to ever lace up cleats.

Gronk is the most dominant offensive player in the history of THE UNIVERSE.

Since Jim brown there has not been such a dominant pass catcher that requires 3 guys to cover him. Gronk ripped right by double coverage by the pathetic Tomlin and Mickey Mouse Pittsburgh defense.
With 7’4 wingspan Gronk can even make double teams look silly.
 
New movement started in the nfl for all defensive backs burned by the Gronk!

It’s called the

# Me too Movement.


Sean Davis of Pittsburgh

Baird of Tennessee

Tradaveous white ( covered gronk but got a Wwe
elbow in return)
 
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geopackiv said:
Would you rather tease the spread up or down is a real question.
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Exactly! I'm a huge fan of the sweetheart teasers come playoff time. Most of these games so far you'd have won whichever sides you played moving it 13 points. I have been fortunate on the totals but not the same can be said about winning either side.

My book has 9 so without a doubt I would take Jax to +22 before Pats to +4. If Pats lose I don't think it's a late FG, I think it's an ass-whooping. And I'm a Pats fan.
 
Peeps overthinking this one.

Jags great defense gave up 500+ net yards and 40+ points, then escaped with a win mainly due to Tomlin and Hayley's incompetence.

Ya don't give up those yards and points in the playoffs and win/cover the following week, it doesn't happen.

Pats by 18+...
 
I don't think peeps are thinking enough.

At 21-0, 24 mins in, the Steelers had 57 yards

From that point forward, 9 run plays and 57 pass plays (includes sacks) 3 of the run plays were on the same drive where they were incomplete on 4th down. I would expect inflated numbers on 57 pass plays. Maybe that's just me.

In the meantime, the Jags (against a much better defense than NE), allowed zero sacks and averaged 6.2 yards per play.

Again, NE might blow the doors off them. I think it's silly to imply it's going to be this easy.
 
Cap, you bring solid points and I have considered all of them and to be honest I have never been as confident as I sounded above, kinda tongue in cheek, and the cat man got me going....ha ha lov his posts...and you are correct, it is not going to be easy, no one walks to the super bowl with 2 very easy games and we already got our 1 easy one. The Jags D is very good and their pass rush concerns me. I am leaning toward the under currently as I can see a low scorer. I'm pretty confident that the Jags are not going to get 6.2 ypp vs the Pats D....they are much better than the DVOA indicates due to their style of mid field coverage imho....We do have to be cognizant that there are some very strong feeling of love and hate toward the Pats and that does skew opinion, it does mine and I have to be careful to consider with an open mind the data shared.
 
It is.

The numbers back it up.

The last 3 teams that got 500+ net yards ran up on their ass in a playoff game and won failed miserably the following game.

No road team has covered in the last 3 years in the Championship game and no road team has won this game in the past 5 years.

Marrone just went up against one of the dumbest coaching tandems in the league, now he is up against arguably the smartest coaching ensemble in the league led by the devious Belichick.

Hoody is so obsessed with winning that he cheated to gain an edge in one of the most scrutinised and analysed sports on the planet.

He will have Blortles hoodwinked (pun intended).

I do not know how Jax are going to score more than 10 points.

Also helps that the Jags corner just guaranteed a victory, I guarantee Bill will torment this dude on Sunday.
 
BJPLAYER said:
Cap, you bring solid points and I have considered all of them and to be honest I have never been as confident as I sounded above, kinda tongue in cheek, and the cat man got me going....ha ha lov his posts...and you are correct, it is not going to be easy, no one walks to the super bowl with 2 very easy ZZgames and we already got our 1 easy one. The Jags D is very good and their pass rush concerns me. I am leaning toward the under currently as I can see a low scorer. I'm pretty confident that the Jags are not going to get 6.2 ypp vs the Pats D....they are much better than the DVOA indicates due to their style of mid field coverage imho....We do have to be cognizant that there are some very strong feeling of love and hate toward the Pats and that does skew opinion, it does mine and I have to be careful to consider with an open mind the data shared.
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I did some research while I was taking a CAT NAP today. My owners left me at home all day, so I had time to load up the internet and research--

Tom Coughlin the only coach to beat Bellichek runs very simple systems. He relies on DISCIPLINE and PHYSICALITY to win the games- So vs Pats with the Giants he relied on basically being more physically dominant and playing simple coverages--

I heard he is employing the same tactics with the jags-- Ex I think they can PUMMEL the Diminutive Crooks and basically one of the Jags player can take Crooks and just hide him in his jersey.

Amendola with his little routes can be targeted with a JACK MISSILE, or a POSLUSKY SUPLEX or a TELVIN SMITH RKO.

Up front the Pats might face resistance from the JAGS front- If the JAGS front can PLAY PHYSICAL NEW ZEALAND style RUGBY the PATS could be in trouble--

The game vs MIAMI was very telling-

MIAMI dominated the Pats that night with CAM WAKE and SUH getting pressure from all over the place-- Add in the BEST CORNER in the game in XAVIEN HOWARD 2 ints vs BRADY.


BJ PLAYER- I am starting to FEEL your ENERGY on the UNDER-- Here is my reasons--

Pats game typically always go the same way-- The 2nd quarter sees the PATS score like 21 unanswered points on 3 scoring drives in a row- It seems to happen all the time--
The other team adds in a TD, and the game is at 35 points at HALFTIME--

However with this GAME, I AM USING THE LAW OF AVERAGES- and feel that the PATS are DUE to play a LOWER scoring game--

What better matchup vs a team that PRIDES itself on DEFENSE and physicality-

The JAGS aren't much of a threat to score fast- They will drain clock--

The only concern is if the PATS score their usual 21-24 points by halftime--

But I can see the Jags at least making some stops on defense--

This matchup to me is looking like a FINESSE team vs a PHYSICAL team-

This usually leads to a LOWER scoring game--

I believe with COUGHLIN there, he will employ the Giants formula of beating the shit out of the patriots to keep the game low scoring--
 
emkee said:
It is.

The numbers back it up.

The last 3 teams that got 500+ net yards ran up on their ass in a playoff game and won failed miserably the following game.

No road team has covered in the last 3 years in the Championship game and no road team has won this game in the past 5 years.

Marrone just went up against one of the dumbest coaching tandems in the league, now he is up against arguably the smartest coaching ensemble in the league led by the devious Belichick.

Hoody is so obsessed with winning that he cheated to gain an edge in one of the most scrutinised and analysed sports on the planet.

He will have Blortles hoodwinked (pun intended).

I do not know how Jax are going to score more than 10 points.

Also helps that the Jags corner just guaranteed a victory, I guarantee Bill will torment this dude on Sunday.
Click to expand...


The Patriots are in full propaganda Mode--

New article coming out from INDY from an INDY reporter TRASHING the hiring of Josh Mcdaniels-- HE said that Mcdaniels is a loser a punk and is an arrogant spoiled PUNK-

Geez wonder who told him that? Belly or Krafts skinny bald headed son?

Like really? Why is Mcdaniels now being ripped apart- They compared him to LANE KIFFIN and Monte Kiffins son- as a guy who is a loser and only got a job because of his father-

The article also said that Mcdaniels knows nothing and its all BRADY and BELLICHEK---

Emcee you may be right,, Belly is so obsessed about winning that each round he has to make up some bullshit about IN FIGHTING and all these negative things about the coaches-
 
This Belly guy is too god damn smart--

He understands to win a Super Bowl YOU HAVE TO FACE ADVERSITY- You cannot just coast and WIN a superbowl--

Allow me to explain--

Pats last year WON but were almost dead vs falcons--

Denver won year before and almost lost to PATS in AFC championship and PITTS before that--

Pats won before and we know HOW SEATTLE had them beat almost--


Belly knows that his team needs an EDGE to win-- They will lose if they aren't challenged-- He is using classic Military tactics- ie- diversion- fake enemies etc--

Pats are creating a US against the world mentality- Trying to create the impression that the press is trashing them all--

This will bring their A game out of them--

Wonder what BS they will conjure up next round if the PATS win vs JAGS--
 
Capaholic said:
I don't think peeps are thinking enough.

At 21-0, 24 mins in, the Steelers had 57 yards

From that point forward, 9 run plays and 57 pass plays (includes sacks) 3 of the run plays were on the same drive where they were incomplete on 4th down. I would expect inflated numbers on 57 pass plays. Maybe that's just me.

In the meantime, the Jags (against a much better defense than NE), allowed zero sacks and averaged 6.2 yards per play.

Again, NE might blow the doors off them. I think it's silly to imply it's going to be this easy.
Click to expand...


See, this is like common sense.
 
I just want to point out, I haven't even said that I picked a side in this game. We are a community. Our job is to win together (or at least i recall that being the idea when this was created). It's not to beat my fellow capper. It's to give each other the tools to win.

All I have done so far is give some of my background research on New England because I felt things were getting very subjective and not actually about things that should matter when handicapping.

Jacksonville is very flawed. Briefly:

-They've beaten next to nobody and you could argue the last two weeks were their best actual wins. The first meeting against Pitt was a statistical anomaly. They beat Seattle and The Chargers who had to travel about as far as they can and barely beat them both

- Did you see when the Pats were down 7-0 the other night and then came back and easily won? Teams get down all the time in this league. Maybe the other team got the ball first and scored, etc. The Jags now are 12-6. They have trailed by a TD or more in 7 games. They won only one (trailed 14-6 to the Chargers in the 3rd Quarter). They are not built to come back at all. If anything, they start to press and panic when down. Most likely they will be down at some point to NE. How will they react?

- They played the easiest schedule in the league

- They rank 24th in Special Teams DVOA. I think one of the most underrated aspects of the Patriots dominance is their consistent attention to detail in the Special Teams game (3rd ranked). Field position battle will be a must win for the Jags and they don't have they better crew on ST.

That's just some stuff I had scribbled on a pad.

But it's stuff we need to let each other know to make more informed decisions!

Have a good night fellas. I'm just gonna watch K State blow a lead for me and South Carolina display how bad they are at offense.
 
Capaholic I agree. It would make sense for everyone to agree to certain things and then come up with a consensus.

Because currently on these sites people just believe what ever they want to believe. If you don’t ageee to certain truths and use then to formulate a better selection then what’s the point?

But people believe what they want to
People see what they want to
 
I have been trying an interesting approach to picking a winner in this game.

I feel if I quiet down and relax and sit in complete silence I will receive a vision of the winning spread team.
I attempted this unsuccessfully last night, I felt like I was about to see something, but it never materialized. I was close though as I somehow ended up seeing a vision of a room, I have no idea where this room was, I was searching for clues but couldn’t figure it out.

I will attempt again tonight to see if I can see any visiions.

A patriot vs a jaguar? Who wins in a fight?

Armed likely a patriot.

Unarmed the jaguar will defeat the patriot.

All depends if the patriot can unload his weapon on the jaguar otherwise the jaguar will latch onto the patriot and finish him.
 
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KJ said:
I'm waking up to the concept of an armed jaguar this is just wonderful
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Jaguars typically live for 12 years. (Brady)

The Jaguar already defeated the Steeler and the bill.

Will be interesting as the Patriot is very smart and knows how to defeat opponents at home.

It’s a bit cold for the Arizona Jaguar so we will see how that effects them. The patriot is used to cold weather.

Jaguar vs a patriot? Hmmmm?

I’m going to try again as I feel like the vision will appear of the correct team. It will be clear as day as I sit in silence and request for the universe to send me the result as the universe already knows the winners well ahead of the games.
 
Uggs always finds a way...
u give hoodie, the lion coach and McD time to break you down, it's all over. Chess v Checkers
take away his binky Gronk ( I'd love ramsey or AJ or both to be tied up on gronk all day) and Dola will step up, hogan or the plethora of RB's to come out of backfield to run wild over the middle

011210_uggs.jpg
 
Retburj13 said:
Uggs always finds a way...
u give hoodie, the lion coach and McD time to break you down, it's all over. Chess v Checkers
take away his binky Gronk ( I'd love ramsey or AJ or both to be tied up on gronk all day) and Dola will step up, hogan or the plethora of RB's to come out of backfield to run wild over the middle

011210_uggs.jpg
Click to expand...


Jags have said they are not preparing for the Gronk. They will not put Ramsey on him. They will just play their regular defense on him.

Expect Bellichek to get Gronk matched up 1 on 1 with Paul Poslinsky or on goal line situations to get Gronk vs Church Gipson or Colvin. All mismatches in height.

Yeah it seems like the pats have a stable of running backs that they employ from the backfield.

On some plays they employ 6 different pass catchers. 5 receiver set with a running back-

It’s just too many guys to cover.

How can a team match up with 6 receivers when the pats go hurry up mode.
 
MANEKI NEKO said:
Jags have said they are not preparing for the Gronk. They will not put Ramsey on him. They will just play their regular defense on him.

Expect Bellichek to get Gronk matched up 1 on 1 with Paul Poslinsky or on goal line situations to get Gronk vs Church Gipson or Colvin. All mismatches in height.

Yeah it seems like the pats have a stable of running backs that they employ from the backfield.

On some plays they employ 6 different pass catchers. 5 receiver set with a running back-

It’s just too many guys to cover.

How can a team match up with 6 receivers when the pats go hurry up mode.
Click to expand...
They dont, b/c o-lineman downfield is a penalty
 
Another clever tactic that I’m thinking Belly uses is this.

He allows the opponent to move the ball on them in the first half. He doesent adjust at all and allows the other team to move the ball.

The opposing offensive coordinator gets in a groove as everything he calls is working.

Then at halftime Belly says ok now we are taking away every single thing that the opponent is doing.

The opposing offensive coordinator is sitting at halftime and thinking ok perfect I’ll just run the same plays for the second half.
But those plays won’t work as belly changed the defense.

This is a classic Bellichek tactic. Gets you in a groove offensively and then shuts you right down in the second half.

The offensive coordinators have to account for Belly check second half adjustments.
 
Also unless a team plays reallly physical ball with some late hits cheap shots you aren’t beating the patriots any more.

If the Seattle all time great defense couldn’t and the falcons all time great offense couldn’t it will take a team beating the living crap out of these patriots to win.

Can’t beat them straight up. Need to physically dominate them like Jon Jones did in the UFC.
 
I dunno, the NFL is about the bounce of the ball more often than not.

Creating your own luck so to speak.

The Mariota 'pass to himself' basically sums it up.

53 man rosters and shitty coaching makes the NFL so random it's not funny, so much room for odd plays.

You could cap the titties off a game and get done in by a tipped ball because a dude stuck his hand in a random place.
 
emkee said:
I dunno, the NFL is about the bounce of the ball more often than not.

Creating your own luck so to speak.

The Mariota 'pass to himself' basically sums it up.

53 man rosters and shitty coaching makes the NFL so random it's not funny, so much room for odd plays.

You could cap the titties off a game and get done in by a tipped ball because a dude stuck his hand in a random place.
Click to expand...


So true about luck.

And the best quote to add to your eloquent post.

Luck favours the prepared!

Belly always most prepared? Saban also? They seem to create their own luck.
 
Emkee-

Chances of luck coming into play on a sports wager increases with the amount of players participating in a game.

Football has more luck dependent plays than

Tennis where there are 2 guys playing. Luck is reduced. The better player will win here.

However what I can say is that it seems the MOST PREPARED TEAMS SEEM TO GET THE LUCK .

What is Luck emkee? Luck is just a word. There is no luck.

What we call luck is just regular things that can happen in the course of a football game. The mariotta pass a blocked fgoal a tipped pass a miracle catch like the Diggs catch are really regular routine plays that could happen.

Luck is fake bro. What I think is real is that the BEST teams are more prepared and in better positions to make plays. When they are more prepared they seem to make more of these plays which we call lucky bounce plays!

The Seattle Wilson interception in the super bowl was not a lucky play by patriots. They practiced defending that play. It was preparation.

The Diggs catch was not lucky. They ran 3 verticals against saints defense that had only 2 deep safeties. They called the right play vs a bad defensive call. The saints didn’t drop deep enough. The linebackers were too shallow creating a huge gap for diggs to settle into.

What do you think my man emkee?
Am I nuts?
 
KJ said:
Luck=who has the white cat last
Click to expand...

It’s interesting when you break down things like this.

I’ve been working on a few theories.

Ex- Luck is just a word. A word to describe a concept an idea.

Luck means to the average dude that an occurrence out of the norm that is rare and unexpected.

Lets think now- In any game there are all kinds of occurrences that can occur during a game- All occurrences can happen on any play. Obviously they don’t happen regularly. They happen randomly.

But they do happen. So when ppl believe lucky play happened it’s not true. What happened is that an occurrence happened that you felt is unlikely and thus you use the word LUCK to describe it.

In a game anything can happen on any play, nothing is guaranteed nothing is assured.

In the Nfl playoffs what’s happening guys is that the stakes are much higher so the focus levels of the players is higher and sometimes lower ( chokers) which leads to incredible individual efforts leading to fluke plays which we call Luck.

It’s all about intensity which brings about odd occurrences.
 
KJ said:
Sammy I get the feeling you'll be on Jags ML bigly
Click to expand...

Buddy I was trying to see a vision last night. I felt it was coming to me but I got interrupted. I focussed in silence asking the universe to send me a vision of the winner.
I was close though, I ended up in a strange room with a ghetto blaster, I have no idea how I ended up in this room.

I’m heading out downtown so I will keep my eyes open for some signs.
 
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Bet the Jags 1st half and Pats 2nd half. That's all im saying. And I don't give a rat's ass who wins as long as I win money :)
 
Does anyone have what the line would be on NE vs Minn Suoer Bowl? Or take a shot at one?
Just curious what the line might be if it were played today.
Also do you think the line would be different if it were a Regular Season game If New England @ Minnesota
 
Alan Tongue said:
good read

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2018/the-secret-to-beating-the-jaguars-pass-defense
Click to expand...
Alan. Great article. Been seeing this all year. After watching those Titans Jags gms. Their 2-3 TE set (12, 22 personnel) always gives Jax fits. I expect Gronk (of course) & Dwayne Allen to have some targets along w/ the typical dink and dunk to the RBs from McDaniels. I would Even look for J. Develin or an eligible OL in scoring situations in the red zone as a possible wrinkle the staff puts in this week.
 
What do you guys see as being the likelihood that the Jags‘ pass rush undermines the Pats‘ personell strategy? Is the personell issue something that the Jags can prepare for in a week?
 
Well that is the question. What is Jax preparing for or expecting to see from BB? What formations and personnel are the Pats gonna throw at Jax. Seems to me that NE has the advantage there. NE can come at you many different ways. How do you and what do you prepare for in a week?
It all starts up front. Can Jax get pressure on Brady. If they can, then the question is can Brady hit the hot route for a quick gain and can Jax tackle to prevent yacs.
I personally think Jax will be able to do what Tenn could not and that is defend the short pass and tackle quickly and make NE move the ball slowly. The next battle for Jax D is minimize scoring. Even if they do defend well and not give up TDs, Gostkowski can win this gm with 4-5 FGs.
However is this the key to the game or is it actually NE D vs Jax O? Is this the battle in the war everyone should be more focused on?
 
ProV1Colt said:
Does anyone have what the line would be on NE vs Minn Suoer Bowl? Or take a shot at one?
Just curious what the line might be if it were played today.
Also do you think the line would be different if it were a Regular Season game If New England @ Minnesota
Click to expand...
BOL put out some projected numbers the other day.
 
Lines for all the potential #SuperBowlLII Match-ups (via @DaveMasonBOL )

Patriots -7 vs Eagles (45)

Patriots -2.5 vs Vikings (47.5)

Jaguars -1.5 vs Eagles (39.5)

Vikings -5.5 vs Jaguars (40)
 
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