Academy Awards

Alan Tongue

Alan Tongue

Pretty much a regular
Never too early to get on. Only a few options available at present on a few markets. I'll get in early before the price goes.

1 unit Best Director Damien Chazelle (La La Land) +250

Looking for a few more to get listed before so I can have a few more bets
 
Alan Tongue said:
Never too early to get on. Only a few options available at present on a few markets. I'll get in early before the price goes.

1 unit Best Director Damien Chazelle (La La Land) +250

Looking for a few more to get listed before so I can have a few more bets
Click to expand...

can you post all of your lines that you see? id love to see some. pretty tuned in to the awards circuit.
 
put all you can on lala land to win best picture. i do think he wins for best director too. fences is worth a dart at 14/1 too.
 
for actor put a unit on Affleck and Denzel...its going to be one of them and both are + money

The actress category is pretty weak bc i know that a lot of the actresses listed are going to be campaigning as supporting actress. viola davis and natalie portman arent even listed and they are going to be Stones biggest competition. Cant bet anything there yet.

i like your call for director. denzel as a big underdog may be worth a dar too.

but one thing ill tell u is if you bet on both denzel and casey affleck i am pretty sure you have your winner. the only other contender really is Gosling, and he could win if they jsut decided LaLa Land wins everything, but the word is he is good but Emma Stone is unreal. I don't think he will win that.
 
D-Woww said:
for actor put a unit on Affleck and Denzel...its going to be one of them and both are + money

The actress category is pretty weak bc i know that a lot of the actresses listed are going to be campaigning as supporting actress. viola davis and natalie portman arent even listed and they are going to be Stones biggest competition. Cant bet anything there yet.

i like your call for director. denzel as a big underdog may be worth a dar too.

but one thing ill tell u is if you bet on both denzel and casey affleck i am pretty sure you have your winner. the only other contender really is Gosling, and he could win if they jsut decided LaLa Land wins everything, but the word is he is good but Emma Stone is unreal. I don't think he will win that.
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Portman is the one I'm waiting on a price on. Her and Stone should put me in a good position

Fences will get a shitload of noms, mostly based on the whole Oscars so White deal. With Silence and Live by Night to come I'll wait for more prices to come out
 
live by night wont be in teh running this year.

portman absolutely has a chance but i think they would want to give Stone her first before they give Portman her second. But Viola Davis will be right there.

Like i said, if you play Denzel and Affleck at + money for best actor, i really think that is money in the bag.


teed im not sure what reviews you are seeing, you may have read one or two, but the reception as a whole is great for la la land. i think its right there. but we have to wait and see with fences that has still not screened, neither has billy lynns long halftime walk
 
twinkie13 said:
just saw hacksaw preview....looks good

any shot here?
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doesnt look it as of now. it looks like the movie is going to get good reviews and be a good watch, but its playing from behind in terms of awards. Garfield will likely be considered even more for Silence than for this. they arent going to give gibson anything and this wont sniff the best picture race.

but as we all know, awards dont directly correspond to what we like. by all accounts, it is well made and im sure you would like it much more than some of the films that do get nominated
 
I enjoy the Oscars because I love movies, actors, and Hollywood. But what clowncar said is basically the truth. This is the most self-congratulatory event on the planet. And nominees aren't based fully on merit, there are a ton of politics and campaigning behind each one. By this time of year, you can generally feel the "buzz" based on stories, trailers, and what word has leaked out. That is why I can be sure that Fences will get a Best Picture nomination despite nobody having seen it, and Hacksaw wont.

So remember, im giving you bets to make, not telling you to see certain movies. I really think the Denzel/Affleck bet is a winner. But watch, Gosling will ride the lala land wave and get it lol.

A few more films to keep an eye on if you are interesting in being familiar with the nominated films and performances:

Moonlight
Fences
Billy Lynns long halftime walk
Arrival (one i want to see the most)
Manchester By The Sea
Lion
Nocturnal Animals
Loving

if you care about the actress categories check out 20th century women, jackie, and Hugh Grant has a good chance to win for Florence Foster Jenkins, although id ont think this group will be much interested in these movies
 
Billy Lynn debuted the other day and is getting skewered. huge disappointment, but cross it off any Oscar lists

Portman at +400 could be solid, but one thing you have to consider is that they hate giving any actor the 2nd oscar before someone else their first and only do so if they dont have a choice.

Actress could have Viola Davis, Annette Benning (who they may deem overdue), and Emma Stone n the race. Its certainly going to be the best race of the oscar season. But for +400 why the heck not
 
Billy Lynn debuted the other day and is getting skewered. huge disappointment, but cross it off any Oscar lists

Portman at +400 could be solid, but one thing you have to consider is that they hate giving any actor the 2nd oscar before someone else their first and only do so if they dont have a choice.

Actress could have Viola Davis, Annette Benning (who they may deem overdue), and Emma Stone n the race. Its certainly going to be the best race of the oscar season. But for +400 why the heck not
 
supposedly only like 3 screens worldwide have the capacity to capture the 128 frame shit Ang did

everyone said the appearance is weird
 
guaranteeed said:
Fences is a bit different because of its source material and that the main people were involved in that too
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what do you mean? it is based on a play but denzel wasnt in the play and he took over most of it for the film. the play did get a ton of accolades.

fences and silence are really the last 2 that nobodys seen yet that have any hope
 
D-Woww said:
what do you mean? it is based on a play but denzel wasnt in the play and he took over most of it for the film. the play did get a ton of accolades.

fences and silence are really the last 2 that nobodys seen yet that have any hope
Click to expand...

they re-did it on broadway a few years ago, Denzel and Viola both won Tony's for it, and the play itself won best revival
 
D-Woww said:
Billy Lynn debuted the other day and is getting skewered. huge disappointment, but cross it off any Oscar lists

Portman at +400 could be solid, but one thing you have to consider is that they hate giving any actor the 2nd oscar before someone else their first and only do so if they dont have a choice.

Actress could have Viola Davis, Annette Benning (who they may deem overdue), and Emma Stone n the race. Its certainly going to be the best race of the oscar season. But for +400 why the heck not
Click to expand...


They don't care about giving somebody their second. Waltz won his second in 4 years for basically playing the same role twice. The same director has won the past 2 years. Portman won six years ago, so it's not like she is going back to back. Due to the strength of Best Actress they may yet push Davis towards supporting actress.

Actor is a strange one. Affleck may yet run away with it, however nine of the last 12 have been won by actors portraying real people. This year that includes Hanks (Sully - no), Edgerton (Loving - outside chance for nominee), Keaton (The Founder - word has gotten quiet), McConaughey (Gold - no word at all) and Beatty (Rules Don't Apply - probably a shoe in for Supporting)
 
actor is gonna be denzel vs affleck. it is really getting clear that there is no other candidate for that.

that davis thing does throw everything out of whack. Stone vs Portman will be a great race.

i am confident enough in both of those...nobody outside of those 2 will win best actor and nobody outside of those bottom 2 will win best actress. bet accordingly.
 
you know what, scratch that second part. teh guys i am sure of. i could see a world where annette benning gets thrown in the mix for Actress
 
Fences screened over the weekend and lets just say if you can find any book that will offer you any odds on Viola Davis for supporting actress, take the free money now.
 
There's no supporting actress up yet. Supporting actor is up, but they are clueless. Three who should be nominees aren't listed
 
D-Woww said:
Fences screened over the weekend and lets just say if you can find any book that will offer you any odds on Viola Davis for supporting actress, take the free money now.
Click to expand...

Betfred are the only ones up and are +125 Davis. I can't get on there though.
 
La La Land -175 at most places. Horrible, horrible price, should be about +350. Precedent is against it

Dutched up
Manchester By the Sea +800
Moonlight +800
Fences +1400

Comes out to a price of +146. Also Manchester by the Sea straight up at +800

Add that to already placed bets of Chazelle +250, Portman +400, Stone +160, Ali +170
 
Moonlight at +800 is a great get...its probably in a 50/50 battle with lala land right now. Manchester is in the hunt too

Ali at +170 is solid too, and as long as Annette benign doesn't swoop in, you should profit off those best actress bets
 
Markets made their usual over reaction to the Golden Globes. Shit has zero relevance. Manchester out to double figures
 
Noms out and SAG's out of the way means major precedents are done. SAGs are important as the acting bloc is the biggest for the Academy Awards


9 of the past 15 SAG Ensemble winners have gone on to win Best Picture. 13 of the past 15 Best Picture winners were nominated for the SAG Ensemble. 13 of the past 15 winners also had a major acting nom. Hidden Figures - SAG Ensemble winner, major acting nom (Best Supp Actress). Fences, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight - SAG Ensemble noms and major acting noms. Makes the -500 La La Land a bad price. Fences (7-1), Hidden Figures (12-1) and Manchester by the Sea (25-1) are bet worthy. Some of the biggest upsets were when the SAG winner upset the very short priced favouritte - Shakespeare in Love over Saving Private Ryan and Crash over Brokeback Mountain

For Best Actor there could be another upset. Every winner since Jamie Foxx in 2004 has won the double. Affleck has won everything so far except the SAG. Denzel now into 6-4 at some places. 9 of the 12 winners played real people, but neither Affleck or Denzel fall into that category, only Garfield this year does

Best Actress is a similar story. 13 of the past 16 have won the double. There was a big run on the winner also playing a real person, but that has gone away the last 4 years. That puts Stone ahead of Portman

Best Supporting Actor goes to the Actor that is far and away the best in the movie. 9 of the last 12 have done the double. Ali wins, and its reflected in the price

Supporting Actress has another strong double precedent, with 12 of the last 14 doing the double. It's also important that there is no nom from thst movie up for Best Actress. Davis is bank interest odds here, and will win

If you are a conspiracy theorist and think this will be payback for the "oscars so white" campaign of last year, then you can have Fences winning Best Picture, Denzel Best Actor and the 2 shoe-ins for Supporting.

So, if you want a bet, Denzel for Best actor, and the three movies next in the market against La La Land for best picture
 
I don't care either. Just as long as a winner is named and I can collect. It's just another betting market
 
“©Oscar®”

BEST PICTURE: LA LA LAND
BEST ACTOR: DENZEL WASHINGTON
BEST ACTRESS: EMMA STONE
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: MAHERSHALA ALI
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: VIOLA DAVIS.
BEST DIRECTOR: Damien Chazelle
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: ZOOTOPIA
Best Cinematography: LA LA LAND
Best Production Design: LA LA LAND
Best Editor: LA LA LAND
Best Visual Effects: JUNGLE BOOK
Best Adapted Screenplay: MOONLIGHT
Best Sound Mixing: LA LA LAND
Best Documentary Feature: O.J
Best Original Score: LA LA LAND
Best Original Song: CITY OF STARS
Best Short Film - Animated: PIPER

17 selections...
Very likely will 15-2 or 14-3 with these. Historically hit 92% on these..
 
La La out to -535 at 5D (been waiting for these pussies to post lines).....strongly thinking a Field bet +335
 
La La down to -395...only plays for me are Field in Best Picture +355 and Field in Best Actor +125
 
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