A Classroom Point Spread Study For College Games. The First 5 Weeks.

[G-Man]

Hello Members, Mods and Owners. (25,24,23,22, 21, 20 Seats For Class Still Available) hehe

This idea started in Dwight Schrutes "Possibe Trend" thread a few days ago. He pointed out that there was trends to winning some early season games. While members were responding, some questions came up to help verify some ideas on winning with Dwights theory.

I offered for members and anyone else to try and create pointspreads on the first 5 games of a team this season. In doing so, you must post your own spread on the games, and then pick which team will cover the spread.

I know many guys here like to create their own lines and speculate which teams they will bet on when the Vegas line is posted.

This is not a challenge in any way - but to expose whether or not anyone can post a line and then cover the spread on that game. The point is to see if you can produce a line that is close to the TRUE vegas line when the game is posted by Vegas - and then see if you can cover the spread YOU made on that game.

You may pick any college team you want. You must create a line on those first 5 games that the team is scheduled for, that you think each game should have, then pick the pointspread winner in the first 5 games.

This is a 'study' that was thought of because of a possible trend that was observed by Dwight on past results.

We need at least 20 participants but would like to see as many as 35 involved.

If you want to join, please post your reply here. First-come, first-served. You will then use the same box and place your team with their first 5 games in the box. You will have to edit the box later after you have done your capping and place the games in it when you are ready.

DEADLINE to do this is August 12th.

This is a list of members who are already in with the teams they have chosen to use..



1. G-Man - Virginia Tech - Posted
2. Vegas Kyle - Georgia - Posted
3. Dwight Schrute - Clemson - Posted
4. Horses - San Diego St. Aztecs - Posted
5. TheGarfather - Oregon - Posted
6. TxTennisboy - Texas Tech - Posted
7. Blue Chip - LSU - Posted
8. DMoney 416 - Cincinnati - Posted
9. gj102 - Florida State - Posted
10. Tide High - Alabama - Posted
11. bjorks - Arizona State. - Posted
12. bjorks - Minnesota.-Posted
13. Fried Shrimp - Georgia - Posted
14. TopDaddy - Troy - Posted
15. ChristianFro - Tennessee - Posted
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

__________________

 

[G-Man]

Virginia Tech.

I will post my 5 games here with my projected lines and plays when completed.

Game 1. VT -8 @ Charlotte E.Carolina. My Play. > V.T.

(Skip Furman game)
Game 2. VT-13.5 vs Ga Tech. My Play. > Ga Tech.

Game 3. VT -9.5 @ N.Carolina My Play. > N.Carolina

Game 4. VT - 5.5 @ Nebraska My Play.> VT

(Skip Western Kentucky game).
Game 5. VT -4 @ Boston Colege My Play.> VT


These are my projected lines. I may adjust these before August 10th.

 

[TheGarfather]

Considering that right off the bat I missed by a field goal (I had UO laying 13.5 rather than 10.5 to the Fuskies) it would be tough to be overly optimistic about being terribly close on some of these, but I guess that is the point.

UO -13.5 vs Washington, gonna go with my number just because. Hopefully it will rise by gametime and I will look cool. SELECTION: Oregon

UO -30 vs. Utah State, tough to be accurate with big numbers, but this one feels about right based on USU's recent excursions to visit BCS programs. SELECTION: Utah State

UO -3 @ Purdue, interesting game for a lot of reasons. SELECTION: gulp, Purdue

UO -12 vs. Boise State, tougher game situationally for the Ducks than the Broncos. SELECTION: Boise

UO -8 @ WSU, who knows how that new offense will look yet. SELECTION: Oregon

 

[horses]

G-Man,

I haven't forgot about this; however, I am pressed for time right now because I am going on vaca for about 10 days, leaving manana...I want to do a good job so I'll get to it when I return around the 8th or 9th of August.

 

[Schrute]

Yeah I still can't figure out who I want to play on the Clemson vs Bama game

Right now I lean to Clemson at -4 (I think it will be bet down) but I haven't made a final decision yet

 

[txtennisboy]

TEXAS TECH

vs. E. Washington +24.5 pick: EW
vs. at Nevada +14 pick: TT
vs. SMU +31 pick: smu
vs. Umass +18 pick: TT
vs. at Kansas St. -3 pick: TT

 

[Blue_Chip]

LSU

1. vs Appalachain State +23 (play: LSU - should be 30pt win)
2. vs Troy +22 (play: LSU - Troy bad vs good opponents)
3. vs North Texas +35 (play: LSU - UNT has no defense... literally)
4. at Auburn -3 (play: LSU - dog wins this one SU at Jordan Hare for 1st time since 1998)
5. vs Mississippi State +14 (play: LSU - one of the rare occurences I do not play a DD SEC dog)

The recommended plays are just for the sake of this thread. In actuality, I think the only good bet will be the Auburn game taking LSU as a dog on the ML and taking the under.

 

[RetroVK]

I will take the georgia bulldogs but i need help with the rules.

Am I suppose to show my own line or the line i expect to see ??

Because if it is my own line , there will never be a play.

Confused.

 

[Dmoney416]

I'll take Cincy and I'll try to get on it in a day or two. I'm not great at line predictions, but I'll do my best.

 

[RetroVK]

I will proceed under the assumption we are predicting the books line since that is the only way making a selection for the sides make any sense. So here we go.


Georgia Bulldogs

1. vs Georgia Southern -- NL N/A
2. vs Central Michigan +25.5 , side preference would be Central Michigan
3. at South Carolina +7 , side preference would be south carolina
4. AT Arizona state +5.5 , side preference is Georgia
5. vs Alabama +10 , side preference is Georgia

 

[Tide High]

Yeah I still can't figure out who I want to play on the Clemson vs Bama game

Right now I lean to Clemson at -4 (I think it will be bet down) but I haven't made a final decision yet

no way i'd bet on this young bama team until later in the year. LB core is in shambles with Hall being dismissed and Zeke Knight (starting OLB) now declared medically unfit to play (end of last week). Too many youngsters to count on. Clemson will have to shoot themselves in the foot to lose (which happens all the time in openers).

edit: not that either have been practicing, so maybe it doesn't necessarily change anything for this particular game. I just don't see how bama can stop Clemson without turnovers.

 

[Schrute]

Whoa Tide, we have totally different opinions. We're probably both somewhat cautiously optimistic regarding our teams. For example I don't think we're going to move the ball with our inexperienced offensive line. They have talent but minimal experience and they face Saban's 3-4 (which they've never seen before) in their first game as a unit. Honestly, I think both teams are going to struggle moving the ball.

 

[E.T.G.]

VK - I would take SC+7 all day, but for me, the bet in that game, is the UNDER

 

[RetroVK]

VK - I would take SC+7 all day, but for me, the bet in that game, is the UNDER

for the purpose of the thread we had to pick a side and no one said anything about totals.

I agree ETG, this one should be low scoring . The two teams havent combined to reach 40 points since 1997.

 

[gjl02]

gimme florida state.... only problem with them is i dont know if a line will be up with the shit first 2 games we play.. ill do my best

 

[G-Man]

I will take the georgia bulldogs but i need help with the rules.

Am I suppose to show my own line or the line i expect to see ??

Because if it is my own line , there will never be a play.

Confused.

You are supposed to use the line you believe is right that you make - and then make a play based on that line. In other words VK - this is to see how close your line is today, to the Vegas' line when it becomes posted that week of the games. You are making a simulated bet, assuming that your line is right today.

We are only doing this for the sake of trying to see how close the line is to the true point spread later. The reason you are making a simulated bet, is to encourage everyone's line to be made to be as accurate as possible.

If you use Georgia as your team - and lets say you think they should be a PK at home against Central Michigan, and then you make a simulated bet on Georgia, then its obvious you cant make a real line and you just want to win the bet on Georgia.

You arent trying to just win the bet on Georgia - but instead, are saying that you know what the line should be based on your own power ratings or any system you use to bet on games.

What youve done already in your post is fine. There must have been some criteria that made you post a line at Georgia -25 over Central Michigan. Thats all we are looking for. AND based on that number, you made a play which is fine on Central Michigan.


:shake:

 

[RetroVK]

You are supposed to use the line you believe is right that you make - and then make a play based on that line. In other words VK - this is to see how close your line is today, to the Vegas' line when it becomes posted that week of the games. You are making a simulated bet, assuming that your line is right today.

We are only doing this for the sake of trying to see how close the line is to the true point spread later. The reason you are making a simulated bet, is to encourage everyone's line to be made to be as accurate as possible.

If you use Georgia as your team - and lets say you think they should be a PK at home against Central Michigan, and then you make a simulated bet on Georgia, then its obvious you cant make a real line and you just want to win the bet on Georgia.

You arent trying to just win the bet on Georgia - but instead, are saying that you know what the line should be based on your own power ratings or any system you use to bet on games.

What youve done already in your post is fine. There must have been some criteria that made you post a line at Georgia -25 over Central Michigan. Thats all we are looking for. AND based on that number, you made a play which is fine on Central Michigan.


:shake:

The problem with what you are saying is this .....

lets say that my actual line for georgia at Arizona state is Georgia -7. How could i ever pick a side against that number ?? if that is what i make the number there is no right side against it , well atleast in my own head.

 

[RetroVK]

That is why i put what i expect the line to be from vegas instead of my own.

 

[G-Man]

The problem with what you are saying is this .....

lets say that my actual line for georgia at Arizona state is Georgia -7. How could i ever pick a side against that number ?? if that is what i make the number there is no right side against it , well atleast in my own head.

For you to justify that number (-7) is a good number, then you have to know what number is bad when Vegas posts it. Thats one of the reasons for doing this.

This was to offer the idea - that what is involved in making the point spread is unknown by 99% of the public.

I am going to wait until the games are played out and then offer logic to the results that should give everyone some insight from this 'study'. :shake:

 

[G-Man]

That is why i put what i expect the line to be from vegas instead of my own.

It would have been better if you posted, what you have the line figured at in your own way. Otherwise your line is hind-site after its posted.

But this is still ok- because there was something that you calculated in making these numbers on Georgia games already - so you can stay with what you have if you like.
:shake:

 

[RetroVK]

For you to justify that number (-7) is a good number, then you have to know what number is bad when Vegas posts it. Thats one of the reasons for doing this.

This was to offer the idea - that what is involved in making the point spread is unknown by 99% of the public.

I am going to wait until the games are played out and then offer logic to the results that should give everyone some insight from this 'study'. :shake:

So we are in fact just trying to predict the line here , not create one. correct ?

 

[G-Man]

So we are in fact just trying to predict the line here , not create one. correct ?

They are the same. You still need to use your capping ideas to do either one. So, again its ok.


:shake:

 

[RetroVK]

They are the same. You still need to use your capping ideas to do either one. So, again its ok.


:shake:

Just explain to me how a person can create their own line .... and then bet against that number. By definition there should be no value in the number towards either side.

So confused. but if you say what i did is ok then so be it. hehe

 

[G-Man]

Just explain to me how a person can create their own line .... and then bet against that number. By definition there should be no value in the number towards either side.

So confused. but if you say what i did is ok then so be it. hehe

Here is what Im trying to do.

If someone knows how the line is made, they must have a system to do it.

Example: Many guys create power ratings. They use those to create their own point spread. Other guys use formulas, like points , yards gained, passing, running etc. Some guys dont care about the way a spread is made at all, and use trends.

Im sure someone will put up numbers on a team by guessing and just play one team or the other because of a perceived advantage or trend that has nothing to do with the way the spread was made.

You posted a line of 25.5 and chose CM. What line would it take for you to bet Georgia in that game? 24.5?

 

[RetroVK]

Here is what Im trying to do.

If someone knows how the line is made, they must have a system to do it.

Example: Many guys create power ratings. They use those to create their own point spread. Other guys use formulas, like points , yards gained, passing, running etc. Some guys dont care about the way a spread is made at all, and use trends.

Im sure someone will put up numbers on a team by guessing and just play one team or the other because of a perceived advantage or trend that has nothing to do with the way the spread was made.

You posted a line of 25.5 and chose CM. What line would it take for you to bet Georgia in that game? 24.5?

Would need to be lower than 24.5 for sure. I understand what you are doing , just dont understand how you expected people to bet against their own lines. But i think i am looking into it too deeply.

For the record my lines posted above are what i expect to see roughly from the linesmakers , and to the right of those expectations which side i would prefer to play at that line, with all information i have today. if i am not playing by whatever the rules are just let me know and i will delete my posts. i might be confusing things here and i think this thread is a good idea.

 

[G-Man]

Would need to be lower than 24.5 for sure. I understand what you are doing , just dont understand how you expected people to bet against their own lines. But i think i am looking into it too deeply.

For the record my lines posted above are what i expect to see roughly from the linesmakers , and to the right of those expectations which side i would prefer to play at that line, with all information i have today. if i am not playing by whatever the rules are just let me know and i will delete my posts. i might be confusing things here and i think this thread is a good idea.

You are making a simulated play with your own lines, whether you realize it or not, otherwise why would you say that the line has to be much less than 24.5 to bet Georgia? It will all validate after they are played out. You'll see.:shake:

 

[Tide High]

Whoa Tide, we have totally different opinions. We're probably both somewhat cautiously optimistic regarding our teams. For example I don't think we're going to move the ball with our inexperienced offensive line. They have talent but minimal experience and they face Saban's 3-4 (which they've never seen before) in their first game as a unit. Honestly, I think both teams are going to struggle moving the ball.

you you are probably right about us being cautious about our teams. hopefully its up and down the field for the first primetime saturday of the year. can't wait. you going?

 

[Schrute]

you you are probably right about us being cautious about our teams. hopefully its up and down the field for the first primetime saturday of the year. can't wait. you going?

Yeah I'll be there. I booked my room late though so I didn't get to stay at the Omni, which is where I was hoping to stay. I'll be at the Holiday Inn Downtown Atlanta which is across the street from Centennial park. Its still walking distance so I can stumble back without having to fight Marta. Where are you staying?

 

[Tide High]

i'm still hunting a spot. missed all the good hotels, but i've got a backup place to stay at a friends close to downtown. most likely i'll be fighting the marta.

 

[G-Man]

i'm still hunting a spot. missed all the good hotels, but i've got a backup place to stay at a friends close to downtown. most likely i'll be fighting the marta.

Tide...are you interested in getting in this "study". Youre welcome if you want to.

 

[Tide High]

yea i'm in for Alabama.

pm dwight

 

[Schrute]

back at ya Tide

 

[G-Man]

bump for additional players

 

[horses]

As promised, doing this for SDSU; like VegasKyle, I am having trouble understanding how I would bet into my own lines...if I make tennessee a 7 point favorite at UCLA, and Vegas releases Tennessee -7...it is a total pass for me. How can I pick a side on a line I nailed?

Anyway...

week 1: Cal Poly SLO at SDSU (at the shops that have a line...SDSU -8', no side preference)
week 2: SDSU at Notre Dame (Notre Dame -17, lean ND)
week 3: SDSU at San Jose St (San Jose St -8, pass)
week 4: bye
week 5: Idaho at San Diego St (San Diego St -9, lean SDSU)
week 6: San Diego St at TCU (TCU -18, pass)

Again, not sure what you're hoping to extract here, G-man; thought this exercise would be more interesting if we put what we thought the Vegas lines would be instead of our own...like I said, the lines above are MY lines, therefore I have a tough time picking a side since I think the lines are spot on.

 

[G-Man]

As promised, doing this for SDSU; like VegasKyle, I am having trouble understanding how I would bet into my own lines...if I make tennessee a 7 point favorite at UCLA, and Vegas releases Tennessee -7...it is a total pass for me. How can I pick a side on a line I nailed?

You wont know if you nailed it until the closing Line has been posted by Vegas.
You are posting the line you think is the right line and then making a simulated bet on that number.

Anyway...

week 1: Cal Poly SLO at SDSU (at the shops that have a line...SDSU -8', no side preference)
week 2: SDSU at Notre Dame (Notre Dame -17, lean ND)
week 3: SDSU at San Jose St (San Jose St -8, pass)
week 4: bye
week 5: Idaho at San Diego St (San Diego St -9, lean SDSU)
week 6: San Diego St at TCU (TCU -18, pass)

Again, not sure what you're hoping to extract here, G-man; thought this exercise would be more interesting if we put what we thought the Vegas lines would be instead of our own...like I said, the lines above are MY lines, therefore I have a tough time picking a side since I think the lines are spot on.

Thats exactly what we are doing. You are posting what you think the line will be and making a bet based on that number. It would only make sense that you are betting a particular side because you feel you have a number that you believe with your capping knowledge that is different then the true number Vegas posted.
If you feel that SD will win by more than 9 over Idaho, then you must feel that the line is really in your favor. You therefore must feel (based on your capping) that SD can win by more than 9 and they are your selection for that game.

Please make any adjustments/changes you like by tomorrow.:shake:

:shake:

 

[Schrute]

Clemson

vs. Alabama -6.5 Think my line is pretty damn spot on but would take Clemson, only due to Bama's recent LB suspensions
vs. NC State -14 Clemson
vs. Maryland -14.5 Maryland
at Wake Forest -7.5 Wake Forest
Georgia Tech -15 Ga Tech

 

[G-Man]

Clemson

vs. Alabama -6.5 Think my line is pretty damn spot on but would take Clemson, only due to Bama's recent LB suspensions
vs. NC State -14 Clemson
vs. Maryland -14.5 Maryland
at Wake Forest -7.5 Wake Forest
Georgia Tech -15 Ga Tech

Are you making Clemson the favorite in all the games?


:shake:

 

[G-Man]

Anyone else want in? Join now.

 

[Schrute]

Are you making Clemson the favorite in all the games?


:shake:

Yessir

 

[Schrute]

Of course if Clemson loses SU against Bama in Week 1 then all my lines and predictions will be extremely off but I guess that's the point of this study

 

[gjl02]

Sep. 6 Western Carolina 6:00pm i dont think a line will be out.. -24
dont cover

Sep. 13 Chattanooga 3:45pm i dont think a line will be out.. -28
cover

Sep. 20 Wake Forest TBA Preston parker will be back fsu -4.5 (still players suspended)
dont cover

Sep. 27 Colorado TBA first full game back.. full squad fsu -7.5
cover usually play well in jax......

Oct. 4 at Miami-FL TBA -3
cover
not sure as well how this Tonga guy is going to work on the oline he may be our starting left tackle how pathetic

 

[G-Man]

Sep. 6 Western Carolina 6:00pm i dont think a line will be out.. -24
Sep. 13 Chattanooga 3:45pm i dont think a line will be out.. -28
Sep. 20 Wake Forest TBA Preston parker will be back fsu -4.5 (still players suspended)

Sep. 27 Colorado TBA first full game back.. full squad fsu -7.5
Oct. 4 at Miami-FL TBA -3

not sure as well how this Tonga guy is going to work on the oline he may be our starting left tackle how pathetic

Please make simulated plays on these five games.:shake:

 

[bjorks]

I'll do 2...granted I'm not to this point yet in my research so these "lines" have been created with about 2 day of thinking about them. These lines are based on what I think it should be on the game versus the public opinion like Vegas sets theirs. I'm also looking at the whole season so do with them what you'd like.

Arizona State
1 - ASU -37.5 Vs. Northern Arizona (Cover),
2 - ASU -17.5 Vs. Stanford (Cover),
3 - ASU -23 Vs. UNLV (Cover), TOT
4 - ASU +8 Vs. Georgia (No Cover, yikes)
5 - ASU +3.5 @ CAL (Cover)
6 - ASU +14.5 @ USC (No Cover)
7 - ASU -3 Vs. Oregon (No Cover)
8 - ASU -10 @ Oregon St (No Cover)
9 - ASU - 14 @ Washington (Cover)
10 - ASU - 6 Vs. UCLA (Cover)
11 - ASU +1.5 @ Arizona (Cover)

Minnesota
1 - MN -13.5 Vs. No. Illinois (Cover)
2 - MN +1.5 @ Bowling Green (Cover)
3 - MN -6 Vs. Montana St (No Cover)
4 - MN -3.5 Vs. Florida Atlantic (No Cover)
5 - MN +34.5 @ Ohio St (Cover)
6 - MN PK Vs. Indiana (Cover)
7 - MN +17 @ Illinois (No Cover)
8 - MN +14.5 @ Purdue (No Cover)
9 - MN -1.5 Vs. Northwestern (No Cover)
10 - MN +24 Vs. Michigan (Cover)
11 - MN +27 @ Wisconsin (No Cover)
12 - MN +12.5 Vs. Iowa (No Cover)

Again, not a whole lot of time put into this, but these would be my opening lines.

 

[G-Man]

I'll do 2...granted I'm not to this point yet in my research so these "lines" have been created with about 2 day of thinking about them. These lines are based on what I think it should be on the game versus the public opinion like Vegas sets theirs. I'm also looking at the whole season so do with them what you'd like.

Arizona State
1 - ASU -37.5 Vs. Northern Arizona (Cover),
2 - ASU -17.5 Vs. Stanford (Cover),
3 - ASU -23 Vs. UNLV (Cover), TOT
4 - ASU +8 Vs. Georgia (No Cover, yikes)
5 - ASU +3.5 @ CAL (Cover)
6 - ASU +14.5 @ USC (No Cover)
7 - ASU -3 Vs. Oregon (No Cover)
8 - ASU -10 @ Oregon St (No Cover)
9 - ASU - 14 @ Washington (Cover)
10 - ASU - 6 Vs. UCLA (Cover)
11 - ASU +1.5 @ Arizona (Cover)

Minnesota
1 - MN -13.5 Vs. No. Illinois (Cover)
2 - MN +1.5 @ Bowling Green (Cover)
3 - MN -6 Vs. Montana St (No Cover)
4 - MN -3.5 Vs. Florida Atlantic (No Cover)
5 - MN +34.5 @ Ohio St (Cover)
6 - MN PK Vs. Indiana (Cover)
7 - MN +17 @ Illinois (No Cover)
8 - MN +14.5 @ Purdue (No Cover)
9 - MN -1.5 Vs. Northwestern (No Cover)
10 - MN +24 Vs. Michigan (Cover)
11 - MN +27 @ Wisconsin (No Cover)
12 - MN +12.5 Vs. Iowa (No Cover)

Again, not a whole lot of time put into this, but these would be my opening lines.

You have a couple days to make adjustments or changes if you wish.

You can only use the first 5 games for the study.

Welcome aboard!:shake:

 

[G-Man]

Anyone else want to join?

We could use more members or OWNERS in this.

:tiphat:

 

[Fried_Shrimp]

If you allow more than one person to play same team, I'll also do Georgia. Georgia favored in all games. Disregard if not allowed....

1) GA Southern NL
2) Central Michigan +18.5 (Central Michigan)
3) @ South Carolina +7 (Georgia)
4) @ Arizona State +8 (Georgia)
5) Alabama +10 (Bama)
6) Tennessee +2.5 (Georgia, only because of the bye week)

:hammer:

 

[Tide High]

Bamer - line is bama's line.

Clemson (+5) -- Bama covers
Tulane (-20) -- Tulane covers
W. Kentucky (-17) -- Bama covers
Arkansas (+3) -- Arkansas covers
UGA (+10) -- UGA covers

 

[RetroVK]

Well the alabama/georgia game should be an interesting line to see. Like all these games , how the season has gone to date will help to determine that line .... but i found it interesting that Tide , Fried shrimp , and I all made the line a solid 10.

 

[G-Man]

If you allow more than one person to play same team, I'll also do Georgia. Georgia favored in all games. Disregard if not allowed....

1) GA Southern NL
2) Central Michigan +18.5 (Central Michigan)
3) @ South Carolina +7 (Georgia)
4) @ Arizona State +8 (Georgia)
5) Alabama +10 (Bama)
6) Tennessee +2.5 (Georgia, only because of the bye week)

:hammer:

:shake:

 

[Tide High]

yep VK, could be 17 if bama gets blown out by Clemson and puts up a poor showing at Ark, but i don't think it could go any lower than 10. basically homer says 10 but i could've easily marked it down at 13.5

i really think the tide D will be 50% (if not more) better then than they will be in 2.5 weeks