3.8

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
TNT Thursday:

Orlando Magic -2 {5units}not rushing to put it in
Under 189 {2units}


Thanks to the folks at Covers.com who did a great job with this article we know that teams that past two years on road trips starting in Miami followed up by a game in Orlando are now 5-16 SU(2-10LY and 3-6 this yr). Now we had alot of Bulls backers yesterday and today it seems they assume Chi will just bounce back. Well I dont the bottomline is Bulls are now 11-20 SU on the road.

I know BrewersFan pointed out the ORL matches up with his Bulls . Well like I said I am more an execution guy then mtachups but the duo of Darko and Dwight seems to leave Ben Wallace choosing which one. Then we have Hedo heating up last 3 games going 25 for 36 from the floor. He has played well in his recent matchups with Chi, as has Grant Hill who is playing tonite , Jamaar Nelson and even like Ariza here(plus Dwight and Darko)...as I said with CHI right now they are a trio and simply must do it every nite for 48 minutes or they cant win. Fatigue isnt a concern as is the fact that one part of the trio struggles the other 2 must pick up the slack.


Orlando is now 3-1 last 4 times they have met with the loss in OT @ Orlando. I had this line at -1.5 / -2 and didnt want to get involved to the line dropped to where I felt it should be . Read this:

Visiting teams are 34-35-3 against the spread (ATS) when playing back-to-back games in Florida over the past two seasons, 17-15 ATS this season.

And those nine teams that played Miami this season before playing Orlando in their next game? They’re 5-4 ATS(3-6 SU) against the Magic.
“We may have to make adjustments the morning after the first game in a back-to-back,” Korner says.

To me that is clearly why they made the game -3.5 instead of -2 and then the betting community thinking value punded down CHI.

Now look at level of play recently. The Magic got embarrassed in SA and came back with a great effort in Dallas almost ending the Mavs WIN streak. Then they come home and from the opening quarter just shutdown MILW and smoked them. That same MILW team that may have been hungover from blowing a 20 pt lead vs Chicago the day before. Which as I said yesterday seemed attributed to Adrian Griffin shutting down Michael Redd and nothing more. So maybe ORL fighting for its 8th seed has righted the ship.


Not sure about the late nite game. SA is starting to get banged up and its alot of points. I really dont want to fade SA much.....:cheers:
 
Good luck tonight SportsNut, staying away from this one, don't want to get burned by the Bulls two days in a row :D.

:cheers:
 
GL Man. Might have to pull the trigger after that writeup. Not much of a card tonight.
 
Dwight Howard Over 33 pt+reb+blks?


21/16
27/11
22/14
6/11

Seems good to me thats pts + reb listed

Basically I would expect 20/11/2 ...so its right there but since he has been exceptional past 3 meetings it would putbe on it. The closer the game the better for the props IMO.....

I see MAGIC 94 BULLS 88 tonite!
 
Still working on the late Nite TNT game....have to say though it looks like Kings +7 for me. The question is do I get crazy and think SA -3.5 has a shot?????(0r -4 havent looked recently where its at)
 
now this looks decent to me for a small bet Tim Duncan (Spurs) Total Points+Rebounds+Assists Over 34.5 what you think SportsNut?
 
Love it actually. Was gonna say that I was looking at some late game props as well. Love the TD prop and Brad Miller I think I will be on as well(17 P+R)..
 
who else is out Sac other than Artest?

Bibby? This line has been rising for the past 30 minutes....
 
I am trying to focus on the NBA but I have 7 college games going now so bare with me...

Looking at :

Over 14.5 pts Nelson -105 {1.5 units}
Over 32.5 Duncan P+R -110 {3units}
Over 17 Manu pts -115 {1unit}
Over 17 Miller P +R -105 {2units}

Havent locked in the late ones yet so they could change...

Try to get to them soon...and the late nite game....
 
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scoresandodds seems to be a decent source for injury news...they show parker/bibby probabale & artest out....

any other injuries you guys have heard of? or is it just money moving this line up?
 
Consensus on ATS


<TABLE class=data id=tblConATS cellSpacing=0><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="14%"></TD><TD width="23%">Visitor</TD><TD width="9%">Wagers</TD><TD width="14%">Line</TD><TD width="23%">Home</TD><TD width="9%">Wagers</TD><TD width="8%">Line</TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell>San Antonio </TD><TD class=datacell>299 </TD><TD class=datacell>-5.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>Sacramento </TD><TD class=datacell>69 </TD><TD class=datacell>+5.5 </TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell>San Antonio </TD><TD class=datacell>250 </TD><TD class=datacell>-6 </TD><TD class=datacell>Sacramento </TD><TD class=datacell>78 </TD><TD class=datacell>+6 </TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell>San Antonio </TD><TD class=datacell>624 </TD><TD class=datacell>-6.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>Sacramento </TD><TD class=datacell>258 </TD><TD class=datacell>+6.5 </TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell>San Antonio </TD><TD class=datacell>9 </TD><TD class=datacell>-7 </TD><TD class=datacell>Sacramento </TD><TD class=datacell>5 </TD><TD class=datacell>+7 </TD></TR><TR class=datahead><TD class=datahl>Consensus </TD><TD class=datahl>San Antonio </TD><TD class=datahl>1182 </TD><TD class=datahl></TD><TD class=datahl>Sacramento </TD><TD class=datahl>410 </TD><TD class=datahl></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Consensus on Over/Under

<TABLE class=data id=tblConOU cellSpacing=0><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="16%"></TD><TD width="28%">Over Wagers</TD><TD width="28%">Total</TD><TD width="28%">Under Wagers</TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell>263 </TD><TD class=datacell>193 </TD><TD class=datacell>347 </TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell>12 </TD><TD class=datacell>193.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>24 </TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell>28 </TD><TD class=datacell>194 </TD><TD class=datacell>23 </TD></TR><TR class=datahead><TD class=datahl>Consensus </TD><TD class=datahl>303 </TD><TD class=datahl></TD><TD class=datahl>394 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
who else is out Sac other than Artest?

Bibby? This line has been rising for the past 30 minutes....


No other absences supposedly besides Artest. Barry stitches should play , Parker ailing hip should play , Bibby twisted / sprained ankle should play and Miller and Martin received precautionary rest from pratice yesterday for knee and foot ailments...

If the line is moving it smost probably due to the fact people at a high percentile are wagering SA here...not trying to be wise with that answer its what I honestly think...BOL
 
ok ridin with you on Brad Miller prop i also have Manu and Timmy i gotta find a prop real quick for bulls magic game
 
Never used Sportsbook. These days its 5d and the Greek. The Greek has better lines but the ability to parlay is almost unlimited at 5d so in those monster spread games where you actually do know the winner you can fire it in mlas a parlay and remove chalk from straight bets. Obviously you need to be very sure before doing that. GL
 
i would take cris over 5 dimes...just not a fan of their limits...but then again I don't do parlays....
 
Never used Sportsbook. These days its 5d and the Greek. The Greek has better lines but the ability to parlay is almost unlimited at 5d so in those monster spread games where you actually do know the winner you can fire it in mlas a parlay and remove chalk from straight bets. Obviously you need to be very sure before doing that. GL


I want to get situated before MLB starts. Right now with the NBA I wont worry ...next year though..Thanks good info..
 
Got a quick question for anybody who knows alot about selling points and the cost of doing so.

The Spurs line has obviously jumped to 8 points. I think that's a few to many points myself. The question is, What do you think it would cost to sell 3.5 points and take the Spurs by 11.5? SB has had this prop offered all day (when the line was 6.5) and they haven't taken it down or moved the vig from +200. I'm doubting that selling 3.5 points would get you from -110 to +200 on the vig. Any thoughts?
 
I have never sold points...sorry I cant help. Not that is unwise or anything just never did it...

taking Sac to +11.5 would cost I would guess around -180
 
Have no idea at all. Somewhat curious move but I guessing its just SA love at this point...gonna wait till tip b4 I decided to take SAC or pass
 
<table class="wire" id="dgrdWire" style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="date">03/08/07
08:02 PM</td><td class="title"> Bet Percents NBA </td><td class="text">72% of public on Spurs; 28% on Kings - from SportsbookSpy.com.</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
believe are you going to fade the 2nd half movement tonight?
 
fuck ben had a 10 in the 1st q i almost pulled the trigger on his prop pts rebs blks over 17.5:hairout:
 
Of course. Spurs will prob. hold like 10 at halftime and be favored by -1 2H, and the line will jump to 2, and I'll grab Sac who will lose by 5.

Thats actually how I had envisioned playing this all day. Though go SPurs 1st H then take if that won double up on Kings 2nd H...:shake:
 
The part I like is CHI walking around the court with that air of arrogance like they are playing well. Guess they are to stupid to realize that the only reason they are leading is cause Dwight and Darko couldnt hit a layup or FT and Hinrich was butta early....keep that cocky trot going Chi...
 
The part I like is CHI walking around the court with that air of arrogance like they are playing well. Guess they are to stupid to realize that the only reason they are leading is cause Dwight and Darko couldnt hit a layup or FT and Hinrich was butta early....keep that cocky trot going Chi...

hater in the house ;)
 
Thats actually how I had envisioned playing this all day. Though go SPurs 1st H then take if that won double up on Kings 2nd H...:shake:

That go could the other way around... Sac down by 3 in the 1h, Spurs get -5 2h and bust this game wide open.
 
hater in the house ;)

My biggest pet peeve in life is stupidity and arrogance due to stupidty. They make it like Chi is playing well. Orl is playing awful. No kdding Chi got smoked and they would come out strong...Chi is getting killed on the glass but we cant make a putback and that sets the tone...especially when Howard has an easy layup and the ref blows the whistle on the floor putting him on the line for the penalty...to bad the other ref missed Ben Wallace pushinh off every time...play a ton of hoops and I just dont get impressed by these guys...its like Gtown just thinking they would win today w/o effort...

if Hinrich gets another opener jumper you have to been smacked upside the head...I am actually enjoying the game...but I nned mute for the stupidty..

Orl is playing awful and Hinrich is great right now...
 
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