2026 Golf Handicapping Thread....

laopadak said:
Bad line I got on Young at Fanatics but it was the only one available.

Rd.2 adds at DK.

Young under 70.5 -136 5u
Day under 71.5 *112 5u, 1 over thru 4
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GL brother.

I'm waiting today out.

Right before play was called yesterday I nearly played Xander at 28-1.

I waited and now he's at 9.5-1.

Pull the trigger BAR! He looks good so far.

So, I'm going to wait this early wave out and maybe get on a live total myself once I see how the course is playing..
 
B.A.R. said:
GL brother.

I'm waiting today out.

Right before play was called yesterday I nearly played Xander at 28-1.

I waited and now he's at 9.5-1.

Pull the trigger BAR! He looks good so far.

So, I'm going to wait this early wave out and maybe get on a live total myself once I see how the course is playing..
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Good for you to wait it out big guy. I’m not giving this track enough credit, seeing a lot of missed up and downs from green side, missed 3-5 footers.

Behind the ball going into rd.3, need to find some winners.
 
2-7 Genesis, -24.15u. Untimely bogey on 18 by Cantlay rd.2 made all the difference for my rd.2 plays. Fanatics allows parlays on over/unders, big plus but comparing lines before pulling the trigger, based on line I got yesterday on Young.

Rd.3-
Potgieter under 70.5 -150 / Vegas under 70.5 -125 parlay +218 (Fanatics boosted) 7.66u

Adds-

Fade or follow-LFG
 
laopadak said:
2-7 Genesis, -24.15u. Untimely bogey on 18 by Cantlay rd.2 made all the difference for my rd.2 plays. Fanatics allows parlays on over/unders, big plus but comparing lines before pulling the trigger, based on line I got yesterday on Young.

Rd.3-
Potgieter under 70.5 -150 / Vegas under 70.5 -125 parlay +218 (Fanatics boosted) 7.66u

Adds-

Fade or follow-LFG
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Cap a capper
 
Rd.3 Genesis add:

Live- Hisatsune under 70.5 -126 4u, Even thru 2
Live- Hisatsune under 71.5 -110 4.6u, 1 over thru 3
 
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Rootin for your play on Patty Ice @B.A.R. Knew he would make a move today, wanted a 69.5 but all I could find was a 68.5, 3 birds in a row now.
 
laopadak said:
Rootin for your play on Patty Ice @B.A.R. Knew he would make a move today, wanted a 69.5 but all I could find was a 68.5, 3 birds in a row now.
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Yes I just was peeking that start!

I appreciate it.

And hey, don't reach on the golf totals. You play your numbers.

This definitely feels like a weekend he shoots like 67-67 and sneaks into the top 20.
 
Round 3 only:

Fleetwood -135 vs Fitzpatrick: really like how Tommy has played the first two days. Fitz has done great around th greens so far this week getting up and down, I’m think a reversion to the norm happens on the weekend, especially with lift, clean and place not in the picture. Fade or follow , swing it easy boys…
 
RBTrojan said:
Round 3 only:

Fleetwood -135 vs Fitzpatrick: really like how Tommy has played the first two days. Fitz has done great around th greens so far this week getting up and down, I’m think a reversion to the norm happens on the weekend, especially with lift, clean and place not in the picture. Fade or follow , swing it easy boys…
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Fitz surprisingly has lost the short game this season- so I feel your handicap here --

Tommy was not playing great in the Middle East but so far back in the states is playing very nicely!

Like the play
 
In other golf news- local Colorado kid Davis Bryant tied for 2nd at DP Kenya Open, 2 holes left in a weather delay. Currently +400, was +1100 tied 2nd after rd.3. Would bet him live but I’m mush right now

Kicker is he’s also a product of the local First Tee chapter my kids go to, got to play a par 3 with him and my son 3yrs ago when kids first started.
 
2-10 Genesis -40u. Big time drop this week. 2nd day where 18th killed my play. Hisatsune 1 under going into 18th, hits fairway and proceeds to fly green, chunks chip shot and 3 putts. Following on PGA app while sitting in car with wife. Wanted to f’ing scream but had to keep it cool lol

If you can find an 18th hole special, Bridgeman to bogey final hole is likely a good bet, winning by 1 or letting someone sneak in on a playoff
 
laopadak said:
2-10 Genesis -40u. Big time drop this week. 2nd day where 18th killed my play. Hisatsune 1 under going into 18th, hits fairway and proceeds to fly green, chunks chip shot and 3 putts. Following on PGA app while sitting in car with wife. Wanted to f’ing scream but had to keep it cool lol

If you can find an 18th hole special, Bridgeman to bogey final hole is likely a good bet, winning by 1 or letting someone sneak in on a playoff
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I'd like to forget this week.

Cantlay Sunday over par killed that bet.

Down around 3.2 units.

I actually had one really good DFS lineup at least.

Just an odd week and I'll explain more tomorrow... Left with a few key notes for next time here.
 
Yeah I’m not excited about Cognizant either. Took Brooks at + money against Zalatoris.

Taking Nicolai Hojgaard in OAD
 
gps_3 said:
Yeah I’m not excited about Cognizant either. Took Brooks at + money against Zalatoris.

Taking Nicolai Hojgaard in OAD
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I'm a big Hojgaard guy the last 12 months -- both of them!

Great pick OAD.. my only issue there is he, Lowry, Gerard will soak up a huge percentage of the OAD volume this week. Right?

Either way, GL.

I'm excited for the Cog. Since the SIGNATURE Series started there have been two +10,000 and a +6000 winners here.

Add in DFS element and this is fun!

Average golf fan, I understand.
 
Last year they changed the par and also over seeded ahead of time -- that made the course much easier.

Rough is up a bit this year and chipping areas are supposedly a bit harder.

Shall see.

A few years ago -7 or -8 won this.

Last year, first round Knapp 59 watch!
 
I have several small outrights... Honestly most for pizza money. Nothing I really think I'd say "go get"!!

Edit -- also a bunch of 5 dollar FRL bets.

Edit #2 -- I'll give one name full tournament, since I put a bit more on his outright -- Haotong Li

Information overload this week tbh and I think there is a lot of guys that can win this!

Now, if Shane, Nicolai or Gerard wins I won't be shocked. But there is plenty of guys who could break through here or get that win that's been very close.

See how the course plays tomorrow and get after some bets on Friday.

As far as Brooks -- all about the putter. Kinda waiting for that to show life. I'm not fading -- he's hitting the ball well -- but certainly not getting involved the other way.
 
B.A.R. said:
I'm a big Hojgaard guy the last 12 months -- both of them!

Great pick OAD.. my only issue there is he, Lowry, Gerard will soak up a huge percentage of the OAD volume this week. Right?

Either way, GL.

I'm excited for the Cog. Since the SIGNATURE Series started there have been two +10,000 and a +6000 winners here.

Add in DFS element and this is fun!

Average golf fan, I understand.
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Yeah Nicolai ended up being 25% of our pool. Thought for sure Lowry would have the most, which is why I pivoted. I feel like events like this you either take a long shot or one of the faves since I don't think I'll miss any of them later in the year.
 
B.A.R. said:
I have several small outrights... Honestly most for pizza money. Nothing I really think I'd say "go get"!!

Edit -- also a bunch of 5 dollar FRL bets.

Edit #2 -- I'll give one name full tournament, since I put a bit more on his outright -- Haotong Li

Information overload this week tbh and I think there is a lot of guys that can win this!

Now, if Shane, Nicolai or Gerard wins I won't be shocked. But there is plenty of guys who could break through here or get that win that's been very close.

See how the course plays tomorrow and get after some bets on Friday.

As far as Brooks -- all about the putter. Kinda waiting for that to show life. I'm not fading -- he's hitting the ball well -- but certainly not getting involved the other way.
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So.

One of my FRL bets was Smotherman.

Holy shit

+10,000
 
Wind seemed to be a factor in the afternoon...

There was just nothing out there.

Smotherman and Nico posted by 1230-100pm and nobody came within less than 4 of those guys.

The chalk guys weren't great either.
 
jimmymo said:
Gut feeling we see a breakout tomorrow.....who knows, but gonna roll dice a bit

Castillo -115 over dahmen.....3 units
Castillo to win +1800.......0.5 unit
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Haha I've paid so little attention to golf so far this year I saw your post and thought it was a Mariners post. I don't have a clue who Castillo is.
 
API time...

Very happy with that FRL last week.

I didn't have anything close on the weekend and didn't get involved much more TBH.

There were a few of the golf guys on Nico and obviously a bit of FOMO missing a tail, but I hadn't liked him to finish first all year. I wasn't seeing it for 72 holes. Still, that's the type of fields he does his best against.
 
Congrats on the FRL last week @B.A.R. Was out of town and used it as break. Back in the saddle this week- There's also the Puerto Rico Open running in conjunction with API. Not as sexy as API but might yield more gems than API.

Let's get the convo and plays going.
 
Stats aside for API- Feels like a Scotty win this week. We've seen his play after poor starts finishing in top 5's etc. Don't expect a poor start this week from him and will likely take the current plus money small, parlayed with other sports.

Puerto Rico Open Rd. 1 plays so far:
Ghim under 70.5 -136 4u (DK)
Ramey under 70.5 -128 4u (DK)

Eyeing Neergaard-Petersen under 69.5 +108 but we'll see how CBB fairs tonight.

API Rd. 1 plays to follow.

After a week off, going to press some on these two tourneys, getting off the L train for March. LFG
 
laopadak said:
Stats aside for API- Feels like a Scotty win this week. We've seen his play after poor starts finishing in top 5's etc. Don't expect a poor start this week from him and will likely take the current plus money small, parlayed with other sports.

Puerto Rico Open Rd. 1 plays so far:
Ghim under 70.5 -136 4u (DK)
Ramey under 70.5 -128 4u (DK)

Eyeing Neergaard-Petersen under 69.5 +108 but we'll see how CBB fairs tonight.

API Rd. 1 plays to follow.

After a week off, going to press some on these two tourneys, getting off the L train for March. LFG
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Let's go!!
 
Here are my outrights. The first two I played on Monday were Nicolai and Rosey...


Noren +8500
Nicolai Hojgaard +6600
Coody +6600.
Justin Rose +5500
Min Woo Lee +4500
Matt Fitzpatrick+2200
Morikawa +2400

Alright, if you follow me you know I've been planning to go lighter in Scottie tournaments. I'm still of that mindset BUT I'm willing to invest slightly more due to TWO reasons...

1. Solid bank roll after an outright+ FRL in February.
2. Scottie slowed starts.

Now, we could talk about Scotties "struggles" all night but there is two schools of thought... First of all, his numbers aren't that far off. They really aren't. We're simply spoiled by him. On the other hand, he seems to be having issues with distance control. The eye test is a bit different. The Thursdays are wild! I had planned for a month or so to use my OAD here but I'm waiting.

Rory right now is playing a bit better and the gap in their price isn't correct. Now, I'm not betting either but I definitely won't be shocked if/when they win (one of them). This is a tough course that will require a great player to win. Especially with how it could play. As always, we'll stalk!

I added MW this morning after kinda giving one of my partners (golf capping + DFS) a spiel on how much this guy loves the water at Bay Hill. That's not a rumour. He's absolutely sucked here! That being said, those driving numbers this year sucked me back in. I really think this guy might win a major this year. I've had my eye on him for a few years. We even won our outright with him last year! Min woo puts on a show and I think is up to the challenge.

We saw what Rosey can do out West when he's hot. To me, the value was pretty good and I believe there was even better numbers out there. Rose had great success in 2016-2018 here... Then missed 3 straight cuts...then 8 last year.

Nicolai frankly should have won in Phoenix. He was right there last week at Cognizant. He's so talented and he can shake off anything! That's big this week with penalties in play. He's gonna pop a win sooner rather than later and that value is going to go buh bye.

Coody is another guy I simply keep betting. The number seems to be 6000-7000 every week and that's fine. This is staked pretty small but I had to do it. I'll keep betting him till he wins. Lol. He's only played here once, the year before it became a Signature Event. He placed 14th.

Matty Fitz hasn't won here but had several top 10s including a runner up. Right now he is hitting the ball as good as anyone in the world. What's the issue? Short game and putting. That's weird, because that's usually reliable! We should see that improve here. You can get away with some stuff around the greens thankfully. I'll admit that hearing golf pods pound his case into the ground all week finally broke me.

Morikawa is a guy I hate to bet. But, I think he's come back to his prior form here in 2026. We saw the incredible ball striking weekend at Pebble. Apparently he looked INCREDIBLE at TGL this week as well. Last year we all know what happened late here at Bay Hill. He's ready to avenge!

Noren hasn't been great here but fits the profile I'm looking for. Small stake.

-------------

Here's some other guys I'm using in DFS...

Keith Mitchell
Bhatia
Rodgers
Rory
Hovland
Fox

*Subject to change
*Finishing these lineups right now.


JT is back this week but obviously this is a watch and wait situation. He says his back feels GREAT after that procedure. Shall see how rusty he is.

Xander is going to win soon and I'm sure I'll miss it. I wanted to make a case early this week but couldn't in all honesty enough to bet him.

Henley is definitely in the running.

Tommy Fleetwood is a stalk, no doubt.

Back late tomorrow and we'll start betting rounds on Friday.
 
B.A.R. said:
Here are my outrights. The first two I played on Monday were Nicolai and Rosey...


Noren +8500
Nicolai Hojgaard +6600
Coody +6600.
Justin Rose +5500
Min Woo Lee +4500
Matt Fitzpatrick+2200
Morikawa +2400

Alright, if you follow me you know I've been planning to go lighter in Scottie tournaments. I'm still of that mindset BUT I'm willing to invest slightly more due to TWO reasons...

1. Solid bank roll after an outright+ FRL in February.
2. Scottie slowed starts.

Now, we could talk about Scotties "struggles" all night but there is two schools of thought... First of all, his numbers aren't that far off. They really aren't. We're simply spoiled by him. On the other hand, he seems to be having issues with distance control. The eye test is a bit different. The Thursdays are wild! I had planned for a month or so to use my OAD here but I'm waiting.

Rory right now is playing a bit better and the gap in their price isn't correct. Now, I'm not betting either but I definitely won't be shocked if/when they win (one of them). This is a tough course that will require a great player to win. Especially with how it could play. As always, we'll stalk!

I added MW this morning after kinda giving one of my partners (golf capping + DFS) a spiel on how much this guy loves the water at Bay Hill. That's not a rumour. He's absolutely sucked here! That being said, those driving numbers this year sucked me back in. I really think this guy might win a major this year. I've had my eye on him for a few years. We even won our outright with him last year! Min woo puts on a show and I think is up to the challenge.

We saw what Rosey can do out West when he's hot. To me, the value was pretty good and I believe there was even better numbers out there. Rose had great success in 2016-2018 here... Then missed 3 straight cuts...then 8 last year.

Nicolai frankly should have won in Phoenix. He was right there last week at Cognizant. He's so talented and he can shake off anything! That's big this week with penalties in play. He's gonna pop a win sooner rather than later and that value is going to go buh bye.

Coody is another guy I simply keep betting. The number seems to be 6000-7000 every week and that's fine. This is staked pretty small but I had to do it. I'll keep betting him till he wins. Lol. He's only played here once, the year before it became a Signature Event. He placed 14th.

Matty Fitz hasn't won here but had several top 10s including a runner up. Right now he is hitting the ball as good as anyone in the world. What's the issue? Short game and putting. That's weird, because that's usually reliable! We should see that improve here. You can get away with some stuff around the greens thankfully. I'll admit that hearing golf pods pound his case into the ground all week finally broke me.

Morikawa is a guy I hate to bet. But, I think he's come back to his prior form here in 2026. We saw the incredible ball striking weekend at Pebble. Apparently he looked INCREDIBLE at TGL this week as well. Last year we all know what happened late here at Bay Hill. He's ready to avenge!

Noren hasn't been great here but fits the profile I'm looking for. Small stake.

-------------

Here's some other guys I'm using in DFS...

Keith Mitchell
Bhatia
Rodgers
Rory
Hovland
Fox

*Subject to change
*Finishing these lineups right now.


JT is back this week but obviously this is a watch and wait situation. He says his back feels GREAT after that procedure. Shall see how rusty he is.

Xander is going to win soon and I'm sure I'll miss it. I wanted to make a case early this week but couldn't in all honesty enough to bet him.

Henley is definitely in the running.

Tommy Fleetwood is a stalk, no doubt.

Back late tomorrow and we'll start betting rounds on Friday.
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Good luck this week; I’m curious to see how Coody does with his name starting to trend.

I couldn’t pass up catching Rory T5 at 4-1.
 
emg2525 said:
Good luck this week; I’m curious to see how Coody does with his name starting to trend.

I couldn’t pass up catching Rory T5 at 4-1.
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That's nice value for sure.

I'm throwing Rory in my OAD, because I think along the same lines. He's going to be right there.

I might join ya!
 
API rd.1
Hoge -132 v. Vegas 6u(DK)
Gotterup under 72.5 -145 5u (Ceasars)
Lowry under 71.5 -105 5u (Ceasars)
 
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I took Fitzpatrick in OAD. Almost took Rory or Lowry, but decided to follow the trends and course history, which of course most of our pool did as well. Still a bunch of signature events, majors, the Players and playoffs left for me to burn the big guns.

Got a little nervous for Fitz after watching Golf Channel last night where they featured the shaved bank areas around the greens that are new this year. Shots that just miss will run off now and create a variety of short game shots that are needed. It kept me off Morikawa in both OAD and DFS after watching him stub a few earlier this year, even in his win at Pebble
 
1-4 API rd.1. Math later and will keep firing

Rd.2
Mich ML / Lowry under 72.5 -102 8.5u
 
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