2026 Golf Handicapping Thread....
- Thread starter laopadak
- Start date
Bhatia is my bullet and obviously playing great.
He and his group all are fighting for bogey on #12. Bhatia thought he had a perfect shot and it went 30 yards over! Same for Rickie.
I was clicking to add Morikawa when he was on 16 and decided to wait till after he got through 17 holes. Well, he birdies 17 and that took his outright front 2250 to 875. Obviously an auto bird at 18.
Kicking myself.
I did add Tommy and Matt Fitz small outrights around 45 mins ago. Matt has missed some short ones since. Stalking MW right now too.
Tee times are moved up tomorrow a bit, as expected. I'll cap those and see if we can find a value pick that will post a score early.
He and his group all are fighting for bogey on #12. Bhatia thought he had a perfect shot and it went 30 yards over! Same for Rickie.
I was clicking to add Morikawa when he was on 16 and decided to wait till after he got through 17 holes. Well, he birdies 17 and that took his outright front 2250 to 875. Obviously an auto bird at 18.
Kicking myself.
I did add Tommy and Matt Fitz small outrights around 45 mins ago. Matt has missed some short ones since. Stalking MW right now too.
Tee times are moved up tomorrow a bit, as expected. I'll cap those and see if we can find a value pick that will post a score early.
KJ
Minister of Communication
Can't believe I haven't watched a shot yet. How's the young Japanese guy looking? I wanted to take him a couple ways yesterday for top 20/10/5 but completely forgot.
If weather is coming in now then have some fun, naturally I expect many will be looking to the UK type players if it's gonna suck.
If weather is coming in now then have some fun, naturally I expect many will be looking to the UK type players if it's gonna suck.
I did grab Min Woo 2500 ten mins ago.
He just hit a beauty on 14... Eagle putt from inside 10 feet.
Deki on the move too.
Brutal lip out on 18 for Tommy. Bummer.
Oh man, speaking of lip outs -- min woo with a short one on 15 for bird. Yikes.
Bhatia losing momentum on the back 9. Taking par on 14 is not good.
I think staying at 20 by end of the round is a big success. Then see if he can manage the wind tomorrow.
Straka is right in this as well.
KJ
Minister of Communication
Crazy because the story is there all over. Interesting.
KJ
Minister of Communication
Thx
2am realization of 8am City match and 11am ISU match
Like the day was destined to be on cruise control come afternoon and wasn't paying attention to the tele
Holy shit it's windy
KJ
Minister of Communication
Just another advantage pros have in tournaments like this
That dropkick in the bunker from Burns would be in the ocean if we were playing a round of golf. He gets to use the scoreboard as a safeguard and birdies lol
Every one of us is lucky to get a snowman after that shot from the bunker
That dropkick in the bunker from Burns would be in the ocean if we were playing a round of golf. He gets to use the scoreboard as a safeguard and birdies lol
Every one of us is lucky to get a snowman after that shot from the bunker
KJ
Minister of Communication
Love the elements and atmosphere. It will make for an incredible watch if it stays this way tomorrow, like the can't miss Open rounds from years past
I don't know how you can bet it unless something changes in the forecast. Any dude could shoot 72 or 82 in this and it might only be the difference of a couple shots
laopadak
2024 and 2025 CTG Supporting Donation Member
1-0 rd.3 +2.5, +4.4u Pebble
A few unposted plays, pending:
Knapp to win 10-1, open parlay with some CBB yesterday
Deki & Hoge top 20 (ties paid) +140
Pending posted:
Hoge top 20(ties paid) +400 1u
Not sure what to make of final round but certainly it’ll be a struggle. Hoping Knapp keeps it close til end.
Bhatia dogged to his playing partners but don’t have enough faith in Morikawa or Straka to make a confident play.
Think first few groups can post 2-3 under but can’t find an over/under
A few unposted plays, pending:
Knapp to win 10-1, open parlay with some CBB yesterday
Deki & Hoge top 20 (ties paid) +140
Pending posted:
Hoge top 20(ties paid) +400 1u
Not sure what to make of final round but certainly it’ll be a struggle. Hoping Knapp keeps it close til end.
Bhatia dogged to his playing partners but don’t have enough faith in Morikawa or Straka to make a confident play.
Think first few groups can post 2-3 under but can’t find an over/under
Basically the last hole on Saturday is what killed Min Woo from winning.
Weather was a 2 shot swing.
I had morikawa ready to bet live on 17th tee Saturday at a nice number and honestly played it too safe waiting one more hole.
Collin was awesome this weekend. Well deserved.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
A lot of interesting low cost guys for DFS. I'm eyeing Fleetwood for OAD. I've started mapping out the season for OAD, and with 2 picks in the majors and Players, I've having a hard time deciding my strategy. Obviously you want to cash in on the signature events, majors and Players due to the higher payouts, but who do you save? And when do you use Scottie?
Anyway, back to Riv. Weather wise, it looks to be the inverse of last week. Steadily improving conditions through the weekend. There is a cut this week, top 50 and ties. Some holes have been lengthened, notably the par 3 4th which can now play up to 273 yards.
There are definitely some horses for courses, none of which have been playing particularly notably of late: Homa, Cantlay, Xander and Adam Scott. Morikawa has a pretty good history here, as does Hideki, so could ride a couple of hot hands there.
Remember last year's edition was played at Torrey Pines South due to the wildfires
I read that Riviera has the most combined starts of any course for Tiger, Rory, and Scheffler without a win between them. Just an interesting footnote I thought
Anyway, back to Riv. Weather wise, it looks to be the inverse of last week. Steadily improving conditions through the weekend. There is a cut this week, top 50 and ties. Some holes have been lengthened, notably the par 3 4th which can now play up to 273 yards.
There are definitely some horses for courses, none of which have been playing particularly notably of late: Homa, Cantlay, Xander and Adam Scott. Morikawa has a pretty good history here, as does Hideki, so could ride a couple of hot hands there.
Remember last year's edition was played at Torrey Pines South due to the wildfires
I read that Riviera has the most combined starts of any course for Tiger, Rory, and Scheffler without a win between them. Just an interesting footnote I thought
Jack also didn't win here..
I just submitted Tommy as my OAD an hour ago.
We have three of us splitting prizes so with another guy going Scottie I decided I'll use him at Bay Hill.
As far as the horses for courses...
This is the 2nd or 3rd most predictive course annually...
Phoenix was a good lesson to tilt more towards history vs current form (somewhat), especially with Deki. That being said, that just happened to be the start of a nice few weeks for Dek. He's the best short game player this season, which is wild.
More to come in a bit ....
Alright,
I've been pretty vocal about not playing outrights too heavily in the tournaments that Sheffler enters and I do stick by that. I'm still going to play good numbers and not be totally scared though.
The "without" Scottie market is something I'll probably dive into a bit more when we get to Bay Hill and The Players. The value isn't as bad as I thought studying it a bit harder this week. Something to keep in mind!
Let me start out with who I have in mind on the outright market (other than one Mr Sheffler).
McIlroy
Fleetwood
Deki
Cantlay
Harris English
Min Woo Lee
Straka
Homa
Lowry
Finau
Rodgers
A guy like Knapp simply doesn't have the experience yet. Maybe he breaks that mold?
Henley will not fare well with the long, damp conditions.
Xander is close, but I'm not ready to bet him outright just yet. My timing is generally off with him so watch him win.
Matty Fitz has lost his short game!
Cam Young fits the mold but has been off so far. I'll still keep a stalk on him live.
Back to my guys...
Rodgers is simply betting a number.
Tony is both getting a number and his recent play is very good. He's been bad for awhile but coming out of his rut! Course history cannot be ignored.
Rodgers +15,000
Finau +12,500
Those two are both bets.
Shane and Max are also bets. Homa has the history and this is his favorite course, hosted by his idol. He finished last year nicely. This year has been pretty mid, but horses for courses here "at that number" makes it a bet.
Homa +6600
Lowry +6600
That's my 4 so far. The others are being discussed... A lot of value sucked out when the field is only 70 or so players.
Deki is the best short game player so far on the West Coast.
Rory was a few blow-up holes away from a repeat at Pebble!
Tommy is right there last week in his return to the states. His all around game suits this track.
Harris fits the mold. Simply shopping numbers here.
Cantlay is the perfect horses for courses analogy at Riv... For now on him...
Cantlay Top 22 -120
More to come later...
I've been pretty vocal about not playing outrights too heavily in the tournaments that Sheffler enters and I do stick by that. I'm still going to play good numbers and not be totally scared though.
The "without" Scottie market is something I'll probably dive into a bit more when we get to Bay Hill and The Players. The value isn't as bad as I thought studying it a bit harder this week. Something to keep in mind!
Let me start out with who I have in mind on the outright market (other than one Mr Sheffler).
McIlroy
Fleetwood
Deki
Cantlay
Harris English
Min Woo Lee
Straka
Homa
Lowry
Finau
Rodgers
A guy like Knapp simply doesn't have the experience yet. Maybe he breaks that mold?
Henley will not fare well with the long, damp conditions.
Xander is close, but I'm not ready to bet him outright just yet. My timing is generally off with him so watch him win.
Matty Fitz has lost his short game!
Cam Young fits the mold but has been off so far. I'll still keep a stalk on him live.
Back to my guys...
Rodgers is simply betting a number.
Tony is both getting a number and his recent play is very good. He's been bad for awhile but coming out of his rut! Course history cannot be ignored.
Rodgers +15,000
Finau +12,500
Those two are both bets.
Shane and Max are also bets. Homa has the history and this is his favorite course, hosted by his idol. He finished last year nicely. This year has been pretty mid, but horses for courses here "at that number" makes it a bet.
Homa +6600
Lowry +6600
That's my 4 so far. The others are being discussed... A lot of value sucked out when the field is only 70 or so players.
Deki is the best short game player so far on the West Coast.
Rory was a few blow-up holes away from a repeat at Pebble!
Tommy is right there last week in his return to the states. His all around game suits this track.
Harris fits the mold. Simply shopping numbers here.
Cantlay is the perfect horses for courses analogy at Riv... For now on him...
Cantlay Top 22 -120
More to come later...
KJ
Minister of Communication
Fading the best in any industry takes some brain work. Admitting it online where receipts are a thing takes it farther. Fine. We're wrong A LOT fellas.
Going against Sheffler here with some of these guys makes sense. If he wins by 5 strokes, it obviously didn't work out.
Going against Sheffler here with some of these guys makes sense. If he wins by 5 strokes, it obviously didn't work out.
KJ
Minister of Communication
But also I ask why he couldn't
Do we think he's already as elite as the best in life? I know a lot of people are in the yes camp with that
I'm not ready to do that. Duval was in that camp so early it screwed him up. I do think Scottie is mentally stronger than Duval but certainly not ready to just hand him trophies all the time.
Yes, 42 of the top 50 are here.
Smaller field.
Elevated event.
He's usually 300 or so lately so this isn't bad.
KJ
Minister of Communication
Fine, not close to what I was disputing. Was a for instance and Duval dealt with vertigo so badly...but I think the jump on board types do it just out of laziness. I don't think there's an argument for good value this week if you feel the need to back him. I also know he can win by 6 strokes.
Let's go Lao!
More to come on outrights but I want to let this guest round get going.