2026 Golf Handicapping Thread....

laopadak said:
2-1 so far, live adds being fruitful. Leggo

Live adds rd.2-
Harman under 70.5 -146 4.5u(DK). Even thru 1
Gotterup under 69.5 +112 3u(DK). +1 thru 1
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The afternoon rounds on these greens are not easy.

Overall though I think you are seeing things well.

I was disappointed with Baby Brooks (that's what I call Gotterup). I simply hoped for a 69 today. I honestly feel lucky he played to level par. Granted, I wasn't able to fully watch, but everytime I saw him hit a shot it seemed errant.

Let's have a day tomorrow!
 
So, late on Thursday I saw Scottie anywhere from +1400 to +1800...

Did anyone see any live numbers today?

I firmly believe he can win this again. A 3rd round 64 seems in play to post a number. We all know how good goes, these leaders will shoot like 70-73 tomorrow. That's traditionally how you cap it after a low round. Justin Rose had different plans last week.

Anyways, I just saw +900 at BOL.

My goodness...

For instance, Gotterup is a few back and +1100!!
 
Back to the tournament...

I'm doing a fast break cap here late night sipping on my Heineken 0.0 :)...

I'm not sure why but I came out of today disappointed...

Why? Well I clicked Deki for OAD on Monday and talked myself out of it. Just a reminder to rely on course history here in Scottsdale. Or, listen to smarter guys like @gps_3 Still, I have Mav as my guy this week and he's firmly in the tournament.

The Gotterup round felt deflating. I knew that late start time would be tough -- the greens are tough to putt on for the PM wave here. Still, it doesn't matter when you spray the ball like today. Thankfully he was #1 and #2 in both rounds SG: around the green. Yesterday was 15 greens in regulation, today was 10. Big difference. Still, as I said earlier about our leaders -- tough to do this on consecutive days

So... I still have some bullets...

Baby Brooks and Coody are tied for 3rd.

I have Mav and Nicolai tied for 10th.

And, lurking is Daniel Berger...

So, let's have a weekend!

I didn't post but I have two fun Top 10 combinations that pay 15-1...

Mav with Gotterup
Mav with Vik

Very alive!

And, bottom line, my big bet is Mav top 30. That's what I really need to root for.

DFS looked so good going into today, yet so bad. My player pool is solid. My issue was Brooks, Spieth and Burns reducing me to 4/6 and 5/6.

I have two lineups left that likely will place in the money. I'm a bit irritated with myself as one of the satellites I have a beautiful lineup but threw Brooks in there. There is background here though -- 4 of us buy a few entries each and are looking for tickets on satellites. So, sometimes in our Monday through Wednesday discussions we alter lineups slightly to help vary ourselves. I honestly flip/flopped that lineup and went back to Brooks. Kicking myself as that lineup is top 10 entering the weekend but will be lapped.
 
B.A.R. said:
The afternoon rounds on these greens are not easy.

Overall though I think you are seeing things well.

I was disappointed with Baby Brooks (that's what I call Gotterup). I simply hoped for a 69 today. I honestly feel lucky he played to level par. Granted, I wasn't able to fully watch, but everytime I saw him hit a shot it seemed errant.

Let's have a day tomorrow!
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Of those two late adds, Gotterup was most disappointing. Was able to catch the full round on the tube. Two missed short putts and some sloppy chipping on the back 9 prevented the 69. Mentally he wasn’t holding up.

Onward and upward. Leggo
 
2-3 rd.2 -4.5u, -2.4u WM.

Couple of smaller plays while waiting for rd.3 lines.

Deki to eagle +550 1.25u (MGM)
Numero Uno to eagle +450 1.25u (MGM)
Gotterup ERL(dead heat) +910 1u (DK)
Deki ERL (dead heat) +196 1u (DK)
 
Think English makes a run for the weekend, two mediocre rounds so far.

English under 69.5 -146 6u (DK)
 
I'm going into tomorrow with pre-tournament to win bets on Hideki, Mav and Si Woo. Fingers crossed. Not sure what kind of hedge opportunities golf provides, so I'm all ears if anyone has any ideas
 
gps_3 said:
I'm going into tomorrow with pre-tournament to win bets on Hideki, Mav and Si Woo. Fingers crossed. Not sure what kind of hedge opportunities golf provides, so I'm all ears if anyone has any ideas
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I'll get back in here around midnight....

The issue is there are SOOOO many guys with a chance tomorrow.

My Gotterup and Coody futures went up in flames today.

But, Nicolai and Mav are right there!! Both payout very nice.

Plus Mav top 30. Let's hit McNealy brother!
 
Yeah think the only way you can even attempt a hedge is to do it live and really not until you know where everything stands when the leaders tee off on 13
 
Yeah the more I thought about it, the more I figured I'll just have to watch and hope, and feel good I have 2, maybe 3 chances at it. Maybe if one of them had a 4 shot lead or something, I could do something pre-round. I'm fine with Mav, but pulling for Deki since I have him in OAD as well. Then I can pick Mav for his home game next week
 
GL today boys. Should be a great final round/pregame before SB.

2 open parlays with Pats +5.5 and hoping for a few lucky bounces/calls to keep the game within the number.

1-4 rd.3 -8.5, -10.9u WM

English under 68.5 -152 7u
Hisatsune under 70.5 -148 7u

LFG
 
gps_3 said:
I'm going into tomorrow with pre-tournament to win bets on Hideki, Mav and Si Woo. Fingers crossed. Not sure what kind of hedge opportunities golf provides, so I'm all ears if anyone has any ideas
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You're in good shape right now

A lot of people can win but I think SW does.

I turn on the coverage 30 mins after the leaders tee off and my guys that are a shot back are +2 and +3 today.

Just a kick in the nuts. Two holes in!! Lol
 
Took some Deki -115 for playoff...

Have Gotterup pre tournament as ya know.

Nearly got Hojgaard in too!

The hard part was Mav looking out on 18 or I hit prop parlays too
 
gps_3 said:
Brutal finish for Hideki and my futures and OAD lol
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Sorry brother and I feel bad for Deki for the crowds late in the round.

And yes, I'm obviously happy that my Baby Brooks future hit.

That round was simply incredible by Deki to stay bogey free through 17 holes with that driver. Short hane and recovery shots were so damn good!

Still, good pick.
 
Already around 45 mins into Pebble prep.

Two quick futures this week --

Lowry and Berger
 
Signature event this week, so higher payouts which is how we rank my OAD. Tempted to ride Si Woo as he's obviously playing great and has two top 14 finishes in this tournament the last 2 years. His accuracy off the tee should definitely play well at Pebble, as they have really small greens and approaches from the fairway will help proximity. However, I question how he can hold up against an elite field. Justin Rose is also on my radar, and I'm sure he will be quite popular, but I may hold him as my 2nd pick at the Masters
 
gps_3 said:
Signature event this week, so higher payouts which is how we rank my OAD. Tempted to ride Si Woo as he's obviously playing great and has two top 14 finishes in this tournament the last 2 years. His accuracy off the tee should definitely play well at Pebble, as they have really small greens and approaches from the fairway will help proximity. However, I question how he can hold up against an elite field. Justin Rose is also on my radar, and I'm sure he will be quite popular, but I may hold him as my 2nd pick at the Masters
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Si Woo has probably been the best non winner this year so far.

Obviously Baby Brooks two wins takes him to #1.

You don't need driver often at Pebble... Yet last year Rory decided to just bomb and go -- and it worked.

My first OAD lean without checking how he did in the DP events is Lowry. He was second last year.
 
Can't recall, does Pebble grow the rough longer than usual for these signature events?
 
KJ said:
Can't recall, does Pebble grow the rough longer than usual for these signature events?
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Dunno.

We have short data on Pebble as a signature event.

The first year was shortened to 54.

Last year Rory won.
 
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KJ said:
Can't recall, does Pebble grow the rough longer than usual for these signature events?
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I know the course doesn't play near as tough as it does in June when they host a US Open. The greens aren't as fast for sure, but I can't remember if the rough is high or not.
 
Weather may be a factor on the weekend. Th/Fri will be typical weather of high 50s temps and some cloud cover. Sat and especially Sunday figure to be wet with rain moving in and some wind factoring in. It's already factored in with the small greens, but ball striking will probably be the most common skill on the first page of the leaderboard
 
From our guy Klos-

With Pebble Beach having the smallest greens on Tour and being the 6th toughest course to gain strokes on Approach, here are the best in the field spiking at 3+ strokes per round on Approach on similar courses...1. S. Scheffler 19.7%2. C. Morikawa 13.6%3. T. Hoge 13.3%

Hoge is on my radar in some shape or form.

1770828897577.png
 
B.A.R. said:
Lowry
Berger
Coody
Henley
Mike Kim

Those are my outrights

I'm going to try and do a mini write-up late tonight with my thoughts...
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Looks like we'll have some cold weather pretty much every day. We're taking highs in the 50s. Add in ocean wind and this will be quite chilly.

The weather we need to keep on is maybe late Saturday and then Sunday?

Stay tuned and maybe we'll grab someone that tees off in better conditions!

No totals tomorrow -- want to see how this starts and the split courses isn't my favorite for over/unders.

As you saw last week, I was high on Mav and really used his top 30 bet to cover most of my outrights. Things worked damn well. Some weeks, that's the plan.

Rory came into this tournament last year and decided to just bomb the course and see what happens.... It worked. Will others follow suit this week?? We'll see. I definitely want good wedge players. The 100-125 and 125-150 supreme players are critical this week for DFS lineups.

Back to the weather... Euros are used to this weather. Is that maybe a slight advantage?

Bobby Mac not being talked about and not on my radar. He's off to an uneven start this year. The conditions are the only reason I mentioned him.

Lowry is officially my OAD pick. He finished at -19 here last year two shots behind McIlroy. I think he'll be in contention once again. Slow greens here which I think is to his advantage.

Took a flier on Mike Kim. He had a slight injury a few weeks back but seems to be coming around. Excellent weekend at Phoenix to grab a top 20. He fits a lot of metrics here -- cheap on DFS and hella value on the outright market.

I played Berger both outright and DFS last week -- light on both -- coming back on him this week but once again light. He's won this tournament this decade, albeit vs a non signature event field. He's lurking. A hot week and watch out.

Coody simply has been one of the best 5-6 players on tour this year. His outright #s are still well above 5000 so that's an auto stab. NOW, this is his debut here but I'm willing to trust this great play continues. He putter very well at Torrey Pines. Small outright investment and in a few lineups. I think I'll stay low with 33% of lineups due to lack of history here.

Russ Henley is the prototype for Pebble Beach Pro Am winner. Simple as that. The value isn't great but honestly if this was a non Scottie tournament he would be +2000. He's all over my DFS lineups and yes I know he'll be highly owned but I'm riding that wave.

A lot of the DFS guys love Knapp and I can get down with that. His value is gone on outright market but I'll pop him in some lineups and stalk.

Rosey is in lineups and I'll keep an eye on as well.

Fleetwood Mac is an unknown. Why? He's started the season sort of uneven overseas. He's another great fit you would think -- 22 and 31 here since it's a signature event -- but hadn't played in years before that.

The DFS guys really like Bhatia. He played very well in Phoenix. I'm indifferent ...

Just remember...

Small greens

Small field

No cut

Weather coming.

Shorter purrs are tougher on POA..

Late day putting also harder!

I'm going to post a few screenshots... I'll be back later tomorrow night with first round thoughts...
 
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I'm fading Recession Coody and will be on X come the weekend depending on position

Very difficult tournament to gamble on imo, pro Am is always a factor
 
KJ said:
I'm fading Recession Coody and will be on X come the weekend depending on position

Very difficult tournament to gamble on imo, pro Am is always a factor
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Pro am is thankfully over on Friday.

What are you seeing with X? Simply that Sunday with no pressure? He's been blah otherwise.

Coody is a star on the rise. Only reason to fade him is the 1st start factor.

One thing I've learned the last two years in golf is to stop thinking someone is ready to recede. Ride the hot hand! Si Woo last week is a great example.
 
B.A.R. said:
Pro am is thankfully over on Friday.

What are you seeing with X? Simply that Sunday with no pressure? He's been blah otherwise.

Coody is a star on the rise. Only reason to fade him is the 1st start factor.

One thing I've learned the last two years in golf is to stop thinking someone is ready to recede. Ride the hot hand! Si Woo last week is a great example.
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Agree on the hot hand. I think it's become more important than course history for all but a handful of courses.

I have Rose for OAD as of right now. Mulling it over for the next couple of hours
 
6-9 WM -20u. Juice adds up on big plays and I put too much stock in Maye & Co.

Weather, format, course makes this a cautionary tourney.

AT&T rd.1

Deki -116 v Gotterup / Canada ML +122 3u(DK)

LFG
 
0-1 Rd.1 Pebble, -3u. Gotterup en fuego, that kid can bomb.
Leggo Hoge, gotta keep pace with the rest of the boys..

Rd.2-
Deki under 69.5 -122 6u(DK)

GL on your plays-
 
Congrats on the Tommy win @B.A.R. , missed it as I wasn't around much today. Think we have one more day of decent scores, slight advantage to the early guys tomorrow, before weather / wind comes in.
 
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