2025 Week One CFB Discussion Thread

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Thursday, August 28th:


Boise St -9.5 and 61.5
South Florida

Ohio
Rutgers -10.5 and 47.5

East Carolina
NC State -12.5 and 56.5

Jacksonville St
Central Florida -16.5 and 56.5

Wyoming -9.5 and 49.5
Akron

Buffalo
Minnesota -17.5 and 45.5

Miami (OH)
Wisconsin -17.5 and 41.5

Nebraska -7 and 50.5
Cincinnati
 
Friday, August 29th:


Appy St -8.5 and 53.5
Charlotte

Kennesaw St
Wake Forest -17.5 and 53.5

Western Michigan
Michigan State -17.5 and 49.5

UNLV -13.5 and 58.5
Sam Houston St

Central Michigan
San Jose State -10.5 and 51
 
Saturday, August 30th


Ball State
Purdue -16.5 and 50.5

FAU
Maryland -16.5 and 57.5

Mississippi St -13.5 and 57.5
Southern Miss

Northwestern
Tulane -6.5 and 47.5

Toledo
Kentucky -10.5 and 48.5

Old Dominion
Indiana -23.5 and NA

Marshall
Georgia -39.5 and 55.5

Nevada
Penn State -45.5 and 60.5

Temple
Umass -1 and 52.5

Alabama -12.5 and 51
Florida State

Auburn -2.5 and 56.5
Baylor

Coastal Carolina
Virginia -12.5 and 57.5

Georgia Tech -4 and 57.5
Colorado

LSU
Clemson -3 and 56.5

Tennessee -12.5 and 55.5
Syracuse (at Atlanta)

Texas
Ohio State -3 and 50.5

UTSA
Texas AM -21 and 56.5

Missouri State
USC -32.5 and 59.5

New Mexico
Michigan -34.5 and 52.5

UTEP
Utah State -3.5 and 59.5

Georgia State
Ole Miss -37 and 62.5

Eastern Michigan
Texas State -14 and 58.5

Rice
UL Lafayette -14.5 and 51.5

Ga Southern
Fresno State -2 and 55.5

California
Oregon State -2.5 and 52.5

Hawaii
Arizona -13 and 53.5

Colorado State
Washington -18.5 and 52.5

Utah -4.5 and 50.5
UCLA
 
Sunday, August 31st:


Virginia Tech
South Carolina -9.5 and 46

Notre Dame -2.5 and 54.5
Miami (FL)


Monday, September 1st:


TCU -2.5 and 59
North Carolina
 
Love seeing this. I picked up my Phil Steele, Lindy's and Athlon yesterday. Looking forward to diving in over the coming weeks. I don't have much to add yet, other than that's a pretty strong line for Alabama. Our record (esp ATS) in true road environments over the last 4 years isn't great
 
gps_3 said:
Love seeing this. I picked up my Phil Steele, Lindy's and Athlon yesterday. Looking forward to diving in over the coming weeks. I don't have much to add yet, other than that's a pretty strong line for Alabama. Our record (esp ATS) in true road environments over the last 4 years isn't great
Click to expand...

What you prefer between Athlon and Lindy?

Does Steele cover the most recent spring transfers?
 
Cincy +7

Nebraska is 14-35 on the road since 2014. Conversely they are 8-3 SU when laying -4 or higher. Within those 11 games none of those previous opponents would compete with this 2025 Cincy team.

Cincy had a gauntlet schedule to finish 2024 the only bad loss in the final weeks was to WVA in a home game.

I do think Nebraska is improving but they have not shown me enough to lay -7 in a week where books struggle to find dogs. This is an over reaction to Cincy 202; 0-5 finish. 0-5 ats as well.
 
Temple +1 same thing as above and they can actually be confident to get a much needed win here.

UMass in 2024 only beat Wagner and Cenral Conn. The reason the line is low is because the finished strong ATS in 2024. Yes in my opinion 2024 does matter to the early season lines.

If you want to look at UNas 2024 be my guest but this is an opportunity for Temple to get a win early in the season.


Northwestern +7 has also been placed I feel like this is a great bet as well
 
spottie2935 said:
Cincy +7

Nebraska is 14-35 on the road since 2014. Conversely they are 8-3 SU when laying -4 or higher. Within those 11 games none of those previous opponents would compete with this 2025 Cincy team.

Cincy had a gauntlet schedule to finish 2024 the only bad loss in the final weeks was to WVA in a home game.

I do think Nebraska is improving but they have not shown me enough to lay -7 in a week where books struggle to find dogs. This is an over reaction to Cincy 202; 0-5 finish. 0-5 ats as well.
Click to expand...

This is a neutral game in KC thats going to be 95 percent Husker fans, me included.
 
Okay I see but -7 is a lot for a a team that struggles to win a lot of games. I’m sure you are well aware so I will post this as public info. Don’t take it personal.

Nebraska won their 2024 bowl game vs. Boston College and that line was -4 on a neutral field of course.

Nebraska Last year was 7-6 and the previous Nebraska winning season was 2016 (9-4). I think they are trending north with an improved and proven good coach and a young quality quarterback. To Lay this many I’d like to see the win 8 or 9 wins the previous year.

The data I’m using includes all B10 teams in this situation and it includes games in weeks 1-3. Cincinnati was very respected last year before the floor collapsed. CIN was favored and covered vs. A playoff ASU team then the 💩 hit the fan. If Nebraska cover the -7 that’s fine I’ll re-evaluate them.
If you’re betting this game best wishes.
 
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A lot of betters that focus on getting favorites find a lot of success in week 1. The books payback on this is week 1 Sunday and Monday!

Obviously there no NFL so their weekly profits will conclude with the remaining weekend games. In every other college week the books can balance out their week with Sunday and Monday NFL. Without that being available they focus on these weekend games.

These are the business games. These are not as random like the rest of the weeks. The scheduling and matchups and lines are made for bettors to win. I’ve seen it every season. These big lines against the poor teams are money.

Georgia Michigan Penn St Ole Miss. minimum these will be 2-2. I especially like the favorites in the lower totaled games.

Nevada Penn St at -45 and Ole Miss -37 and and totaled at over 60 is a signal that Nevada and Georgia State will score.

If I’m betting big lines I’m betting the favorites in the lower totaled games. Georgia, Michigan. If betonline offers SGP on these games I will combine the favorite with the dog team total under.
 
The Notre Dame Miami game is another focus of mine. Week 1 Sunday dogs do extremely well at 18-8 ATS last 26. The books use this Sunday game as get back game. This is not random it’s proven to be a business game. Not only do bettors play this game with some of the profits they made Saturday, a lot of betters use this game in their parlay tickets. If the parlay tickets survive the bettors will be on Notre Dame.

Who’s betting a huge parlay ticket survive a Trust A home dog Miami team with Carson Beck at QB ? Notre Dame has had a lot ats success in 2023, 2024.

I could write more thoughts and details about this game but no need. I see the history and I feel very confident Miami is going to cover and beat Notre Dame in this game.

It’s important also to look at Saturdays results as well because if for some reason these Saturday game don’t play out as previous seasons that changes my thoughts.

Sunday is for the books and this is a business game for the books to gain some profits.


Notre Dane usually doesn’t schedule top 20 opponents away from home and when they do they are not as successful. Most of their ATS success is because they play run the ball play keep away and limit opponents when on defense. Let’s see how Miami does.
 
Purdue -16.5

I believe this is an under the radar game.

I have Purdue in the 2023 Colorado and 2024 Vandy category. Not a lot can predict the uprise until it plays out. Clearly when I read about Purdue they have made all Kinds of changes. Clearly they are making the team better, more talented and better coaching.

Ball State, have they ever competed for a MAC championship? Their 3-9 record last year and 5 times were double digit dogs in conference games. Ball State I’m not concerned about their transfer portal signings or transfers. It’s Ball State. This team is fairly consistent. They are in the Eastern Michigan category.

I feel Purdue is clearly focused from the business operations side to the coaches and the talent they acquired. I am not predicting their season wins but if they don’t beat Ball State by 17 I’d be very surprised.
 
Rutgers should smack Ohio around in the opening week. They return 10 starters. Ohio lost everyone on their offensive line and their linebackers took a big hit. I expect Rutgers to win by 17+.
 
One thing I noticed last year, early in the season.... was that teams that had mostly transfers on the OL, even if experienced ... really struggled early. It took them 3/4 games to get it together. Oregon it seems was one.

Anything else you guys notice, that seem to be portal/ NIL related? Either early, or late in the season....

eg, teams quitting earlier than usual - stars on a bad team shutting it down to avoid injury , etc
 
It’s important also to look at Saturdays results as well because if for some reason these Saturday game don’t play out as previous seasons that changes my thoughts.
Click to expand...

Why would unrelated week 1 games on a Saturday effect how teams a vs b will play or how you expect them to play on a Sunday?
 
bookieassassin said:
One thing I noticed last year, early in the season.... was that teams that had mostly transfers on the OL, even if experienced ... really struggled early. It took them 3/4 games to get it together. Oregon it seems was one.

Anything else you guys notice, that seem to be portal/ NIL related? Either early, or late in the season....

eg, teams quitting earlier than usual - stars on a bad team shutting it down to avoid injury , etc
Click to expand...
Yeah, I think this is a big one in the Free Agency era of CFB.

Now, plugging in a seasoned vet at OL on a team needing one piece can be smooth in many cases.

But, as you said, the multiple starters is an issue.

Time is always needed...

To gel
To learn new systems
To get comfortable in new surroundings
 
Speaking of needing time, I count 15 FBS teams on their third OC in three years. (A hand count, could be more)
Bama
Az
Boise st (8th OC since 2019)
Cal
Central Mich
Houston
Kansas
Kansas St
Marshall
Michigan
New Mexico
New Mexico St
Southern Miss
UCF
UCLA
UTEP

Now there are teams like Michigan where OC becomes head coach, QB coach moves to OC. So not a big change until Lindsey hired.
 
Interesting "mini-trend" found.

Week 0-1, 2024; Teams with new OC vs an opponent also with new OC ( I count six such games) all went Over the game total, 6-0.

-Akron/Ohio St
-Bama/ WKU
-Arizona St/Wyoming
-Boise St/Georgia Southern
-Ohio/Syracuse
-Arizona/New Mexico

This year, just off hand, I see WKU/Sam Houston, Temple/Umass, Purdue/Ball St, and Fresno St/Kansas all with new OC's.
 
One more historical trend for week 0-1 (first game)

For spreads of -20 or higher the fav covered;

BIG10 was 6-5 in 2024, 15-12 last three seasons
ACC was 2-2-2 in 2024, 7-7-3 last three seasons
BIG12 was 4-6 in 2024, 15-12 last three seasons
SEC was 10-1 in 2024, 25-7 last three seasons.

Again, my count. Let me know if there are any errors. Spreads taken from Steele mag.
 
V.K. said:
Interesting "mini-trend" found.

Week 0-1, 2024; Teams with new OC vs an opponent also with new OC ( I count six such games) all went Over the game total, 6-0.

-Akron/Ohio St
-Bama/ WKU
-Arizona St/Wyoming
-Boise St/Georgia Southern
-Ohio/Syracuse
-Arizona/New Mexico

This year, just off hand, I see WKU/Sam Houston, Temple/Umass, Purdue/Ball St, and Fresno St/Kansas all with new OC's.
Click to expand...
Alabama/FSU both have new OCs
 
Michigan/New Mexico with new OC's too.

Not going to put much into that trend. All six games over last year was interesting though.

WKU/Sam Houston on my radar for Over.
 
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