2025-26 BOWL GUIDE

Interesting match up. No one worse vs. the pass than App St. who will be missing pieces of the secondary.

GA Southern defense sucks even if at full strength. App backups should be able to run it.
 
Regretting this already ha....

But this new QB Wilson can run (66 yds / 11 yds/rush,) - GASO is a terrible 2H team - and probably the nation's worst run D (#135 5.7 ...#136 rush explosives)

GASO only 68 yds passing - 4.5/att - plus App St 1 sack / 4 TFL


Small play at MB

App St +10'
 
bookieassassin said:
Regretting this already ha....

But this new QB Wilson can run (66 yds / 11 yds/rush,) - GASO is a terrible 2H team - and probably the nation's worst run D (#135 5.7 ...#136 rush explosives)

GASO only 68 yds passing - 4.5/att - plus App St 1 sack / 4 TFL


Small play at MB

App St +10'
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Like your methodologies, and excellent points prior to bowl season.

My question is that you were spot on initial analysis, and what made you adjust your buy order?
 
Gordon gekko said:
Like your methodologies, and excellent points prior to bowl season.

My question is that you were spot on initial analysis, and what made you adjust your buy order?
Click to expand...

because I'm just a southern dumbass man ha......

Just a small play...
>> Pre-game App St had no offensive threat to take advantage of GASO's horrific run D - this Fr QB was averaging 11 yds/rush - wasn't scheduled to play.....their D limited GASO O 1H - except for one big run. I think ASU OC called a terrible 2H, but yep probably best to stick with initial hunch - gutless effort mostly by GASO, but Sr leadership was the key....... BOL the rest of the way
 
added smaller (-116 at lV)

TCU +7

Loved the Frogs initially, but backed off when QB Hoover QUIT HIS TEAM.....
>> however, this also annoyed a few of their stars, namely great WR McAlister - who stood up in a team meeting in support of well liked bu QB, and home town boy Ken Seals. Others who were considering opting out - will now play, including their best defensive player Bud Clark (injured so ?)

Recall Seals started as a true Fr at Vandy, played 22 games in the SEC - he is from the area and transferred to TCU LY, thinking he could start, but was beat out by Hoover. The players seem to be rallying around him, and should give a great effort here. TCU fans aren't great travelers - but San Antonio / River Walk is great over the holidays - so more than usual should go.

USC? - expecting much more than this, their 4Y under Lincoln Riley - play-offs > ALAMO BOWL.
* QB is playing, but most all their stars are not playing, including both great WR - I would expect more will decide not to play. DC Lynn is off to Penn St.

Frogs need to play a clean game (#106 in giveaways / #58 TO margin) - USC #47. They do have a slight ST edge - but a large edge in leveraging the field (#38 > #113). Oddly enough, only EMU starts their O from a worse spot than USC (25 YL / Frogs 31.5)

I think they stay within a possession, or win outright.
 
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CCaro / La Tech

BIG game for LT / Sonny Cumbie...
>> S L O W build, from 2022: 3-9 > 3-9 > 5-8 > 7-5

LY they were 5-7, then filled in for the sorry Herd (dropped out) in this same bowl - unfortunately the opponent was ARMY (lost 27-6 / +14). They will play with a 3rd string QB, weak passer but a very good runner. Key guys on D have opted out
* covered 13/18 games
* horrible road team, maybe the worst road favorite - last 13X favored away - they have lost 11 SU < not a typo
* last 25 away - they have won 4 SU (10-15 ats)
* #13 TO margin - #132 SOS

Probably a bad draw here (kinda sorta) in C Caro, whose interim HC was their DC last year (Jeremiah Johnson). CC lost to UTSA LY by 29 (+13) in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Not many opt outs so far, but who knows - they collapsed down the stretch
* D allow 5.2/rush (#129)
* O really can't run or throw

$ Huge here, is if CCaro QB Samari Collier can play. IF he does, CC can probably compete, maybe win/cover. If not the other guy Hudson is a major drop off > they shouldn't move it at all. They may slow things down here, but they usually play fairly fast (#27) >> more possessions for LT.
>> this one has to be LT or nothing - no way I trust them to cover this big of a number .

I'll look to play them live/2H at a better number, or ML if set up. I think we can trust them to win outright.


BTW - for those using the Steele mag - yet another mistake : Jeremiah Johnson is still listed as LT's current DC, he left Jan. 2025.
 
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ILL / TENN

WHO WANTS IT MORE?
>> motivational edge to Illinois for sure - only their 4th bowl in like 10 years - LY they did beat SCaro in the Citrus Bowl (W4/+8')- QB Altmeyer's final game

Vols off a play-off loss to Ohio State LY - 8-4 this year, their worse since 2021 under HC Heupel - MUSIC CITY BOWL is not where they wanted to be

WHO'S OUT
* Illinois: best OL Davis - leading tackler S Bailey - leading pass rusher, LB Jacas
>> all 3 all B10, Jacas is the only guy on D that can rush the passer (led B10)
* Tenn : best WR Brazzel -leading tackler LB Carter - CB Hood (7th LT) - DE Josephs (9th LT)

ST - Ill #39 - Tenn # 35
TO margin - Ill #43 - Tenn #35
Pen - Ill #20 - Tenn #81
PACE - Ill #96 - Tenn #4

Illinois O vs Tenn D
* Strong pass O vs a really weak pass D - but Vols can bring heat (#26) / Illinois can't protect (#112)
Vols defend the run well, but Illinois only 3.9/rush - Illinois not explosive, but may hit a few pass explosives (Vols D #108)

Vol O vs Illinois D
* Vols less explosive than usual - note Illinois D strong vs run (#12) and pass (#11) explosives - Vols rush O 4.6 vs Ill D 3.9
Illinois can't rush the passer (#101), Vols protect well as always (#34) - note nobody on D has more than 2 sacks with Jacas out- Vols
#25 RZ O vs Illinois #95 RZ D


HOW WILL THIS GAME PLAY OUT?

Vols are very fast starters (maybe #1) - and I expect will have a few wrinkles on D (DC fired) - in addition they should have a nice crowd edge - Illini better finishers, especially maybe here as the Tenn D gets exponentially worse every quarter
* pass D % allowed (1>4Q) : 62 > 63 > 67 > 76 - run D fades as well - Illini O runs best 4Q (4.6)

$ I lean Illinois here, but don't like the current # (missed the 6) - I'm confident that I can get a much better number live/2H, expecting a strong start from Tenn - I expect Altmeyer to finish strong, stay within a possession, or win outright.


edit: live/2H plays might be the way to go in bowls - and hell every game really - here I can take the 3, or wait and maybe get 7/10/14 ....AND at some point I should still be able to get 3, if I want
 
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LT/CC - I THINK ....

I'll pass on LT for now - wait until 3Q to see how they come out of the half - CC is doing things they didn't expect (HC knows their personnel/schemes) - they should be able to run 2H - CC gives up 6.5/rush 3Q
 
missed my window on Illinois - Vols missed that FG....
>> hopefully Vols get close - I'll bet Illinois ML

Hit LT ML +200 - didn't post because it was a direct violation of bowl betting rule, and I would look like an idiot if it lost ha....
* "team getting their ass kicked doesn't come back to win, in crap bowls"
 
Vandy should struggle early with Iowa - advantage off a long rest goes to the stronger D, and running game - Iowa with a huge edge in the trenches. I'll of course look to play my boi, Nate Diaz Pavia live/2H. I like Vandy a bit less now that TE Stowers is out.

Iowa +3' 1H


Michigan/ Texas total seems a bit high, esp. off the long lay-off

Michigan/Texas 1H UNDER 24
 
Del Fuego 🔥 🙏🏽 mahalo Nui loa kapuna….ho bra!! One helluva run taking place here. Thanks for sharing your dilligence and hard work. 🍻 On the edge of my seat awaiting your playoff write ups or plays/leans… tough matchups and I cant wait for the games.

-wolfeman

Nate Diaz lmfao 🤣 hahaha
 
Iowa/Vandy

Vandy has no shot here?

Seems like everybody loves Iowa - on paper it makes sense....
>> but Vandy has covered 21 of their last 26 games, they can run and throw (Iowa only run) - and can stop the run (3.6/103). They are explosive (run/pass) Iowa O is neither - their D prevents explosives (as does Iowa). They can create havoc, get penetration (#25) as well.

Finished with this

@ Ala - L16 in a revenge game
LSU - W7
Mizzou W7
@ TX L3
Auburn W7
Kentucky W28
@Tenn W21

Iowa is really tough this year as well
* L5 Indy ......W1 Penn St .....L2 Oregon ....L5 @USC ....W38 @ Minny ....W25 @ Neb

* Vandy has the better ST (#9 > 25)
* TO margin same for both +2
* Vandy is penalized more (#94 > 2)


I don't wanna lay more than 3 here, plus I'm not sure of their mental state after the play-off snub. I (think) Pavia is still focused, and will play with a massive chip on his shoulder here - but also think there's a greater than zero chance he's been partying a bit much, and feels he's done all he can do...."F it".
>> plus Iowa has a nice edge in the trenches here, and QB Gronowski is closing out his career as well ....they will be very tough to beat, wish they weren't playing each other.

Numbers support my plan : Iowa get's up early (maybe big) - Vandy comes back

Iowa O - 1H scoring #22 > 2H #86
Vandy 1H #15 > 2H #2
Vandy D 1H #79 > 2H #27 (note Iowa D tightens up too)

Rushing
Vandy O 1H 5.0 > 2H 6.5 (3Q they average 7.6/rush !!!!) > note Iowa D worse 3Q
Vandy D 4.1 1H > 3.0 2H (only 2 rushing TD's allowed 2h)

$ I'll play Iowa 1H - look to play Vandy live/2H
 
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busy today boys...

I'll probably play DUKE, at <3 - maybe live/2H

HUGE edges:
QB - ASU should play a talented FR (Cam Dyer) some, that might change things (if only Sims ASU is in trouble)
TO - #18 > #100
ST - #57 > #128

I don't like laying points to ASU / Dillingham- but Duke should be the team with the will to win. I don't think they really expected a play-off berth right? - so not much of a letdown spot - IMO. Note HC Diaz 0-3 su/ats in bowls ..... that was him at Miami when La Tech whipped the Canes's sorry ass in the Ind Bowl ha.....


Mich/Texas - like Michigan at >7 for sure - ML too

NEB/UTAH - a great game to stay away - Huskers should get killed - they also could win outright - coaching crap often serves as a distraction - can't see Nebraska coming back if they get down

Miami / Ohio St - I like Ohio St, but too many points - I think Miami hangs for awhile - get their ass kicked 2H - I'll look to play Buckeyes live/2H
* I might go to this one, it's like $40 ha
 
C-MAN said:
Vandy has missed some opportunities 1H. Still think this game gets tight towards the end.
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Shocking if this one isn't close...

Vandy is getting killed - and they're down by 11. They come out of halftime better than most any team - their OL has got to play better. They are the best running team in the nation 3Q (probably) -meaning OC figures a few things out. They miss their great TE for sure (go to guy)
 
tomorrow

I'll be on Oregon at 2 or less - think I can get a cheap 2 or 1' - and Georgia a bit smaller at 6 or less, probably Ole Miss 1H - maybe Bama 1Q or 1H.

Red Raiders are a great story - just think they're outclassed here. A great D you bet, but what balanced O's with top QB's have they played? QB seen a D like the Ducks? Just work your way thru that schedule....

Happy New Year boys....

Back in the morning
 
added one unit + at BM (-116)
*list as smaller - not motivational model play

Oregon -1


BIG PICTURE:

Ducks have been building up to this for 4 years :
* 10-3 > 12-2 > 13-1 > 12-1 (lost to Ohio St play-offs)
TT - 8-5 > 7-6 > 8-5 > 12-1
* lost to Arkansas by 13 in Liberty Bowl

COACHING - Tho I don't like both coordinators out the door immediately after the season (see Collin Klein) - IMO Oregon has a huge coaching edge. Lanning was at Bama - when McGuire was in high school.

QB/OL- playing a much tougher schedule , Ducks OL was better in all phases (#19 sacks/#5 TFL / #7 havoc) ..... TT OL #42 / #6 / #28
>> Morton lit up weaker D's - tougher D's, meaning BYU, Utah, Ariz St - not so much. Before he got hurt vs Utah he was 12-19/142/ 0 TD- 2 INT). Duck's Moore is the more talented, better protected, and surrounded by better weapons


I THINK THE OREGON D IS AS GOOD AS TEXAS TECH's D
* SP+ #5 vs TT #4

The stats are skewed here, as Oregon D will let up at the end of games (JMU) - and will give a lesser effort vs weaker teams, but in big games like this one - they are tough. Plus, what balanced teams with top QB's has TT faced? Your run D will be awesome if you play teams that can't run or throw. Plus this year they were motivated to extend the margin every week (justify the huge money spent) - Ducks were not.

TT O vs Oregon D
* Tech didn't run well vs tougher D's - I don't think they will be able to run here. TT O is very explosive (#13 run / #4 pass) but Oregon defends both well (#4/#13). Note TT allows sacks/penetration - but Ducks (usually) don't bring heat anyway (#65 sacks / #105 TFL)
>> odd stat here : TT with the #96 RZ O (TD) vs Oregon #120 RZ D

Oregon O vs TT D
* Ducks can run on most anybody (5.9/217) - they probably struggle early, but I think late they can control this game - TT hasn't faced an O like this one. Ducks are about as explosive as TT (less so running) Tech defends both well. TT brings heat of course, but Oregon protects well, QB Moore can escape the rush, make plays.

I THINK OREGON IS ABLE TO MAKE MORE STOPS THAN TEXAS TECH


SOS- TT #66 / O #11
O- TT #59 / O #30
D- TT #56 / O #25

ST - TT #32 / O #40
TO margin - TT # 2/ O #29
FP - TT #1 / O #41


$ Incredible job by TT getting here this fast, but too much too soon for me - Red Raiders should get a wake up call here
>> strong lean UNDER
 
We've got an official line flip now with TT being favored. I'm not sure how the market is getting there. I make it Ducks -3 on neutral, and as you noted BA, experience is critical at this juncture....kind of waiting to see how the 1H plays out before taking another position.
 
bookieassassin said:
added one unit + at BM (-116)
*list as smaller - not motivational model play

Oregon -1


BIG PICTURE:

Ducks have been building up to this for 4 years :
* 10-3 > 12-2 > 13-1 > 12-1 (lost to Ohio St play-offs)
TT - 8-5 > 7-6 > 8-5 > 12-1
* lost to Arkansas by 13 in Liberty Bowl

COACHING - Tho I don't like both coordinators out the door immediately after the season (see Collin Klein) - IMO Oregon has a huge coaching edge. Lanning was at Bama - when McGuire was in high school.

QB/OL- playing a much tougher schedule , Ducks OL was better in all phases (#19 sacks/#5 TFL / #7 havoc) ..... TT OL #42 / #6 / #28
>> Morton lit up weaker D's - tougher D's, meaning BYU, Utah, Ariz St - not so much. Before he got hurt vs Utah he was 12-19/142/ 0 TD- 2 INT). Duck's Moore is the more talented, better protected, and surrounded by better weapons


I THINK THE OREGON D IS AS GOOD AS TEXAS TECH's D
* SP+ #5 vs TT #4

The stats are skewed here, as Oregon D will let up at the end of games (JMU) - and will give a lesser effort vs weaker teams, but in big games like this one - they are tough. Plus, what balanced teams with top QB's has TT faced? Your run D will be awesome if you play teams that can't run or throw. Plus this year they were motivated to extend the margin every week (justify the huge money spent) - Ducks were not.

TT O vs Oregon D
* Tech didn't run well vs tougher D's - I don't think they will be able to run here. TT O is very explosive (#13 run / #4 pass) but Oregon defends both well (#4/#13). Note TT allows sacks/penetration - but Ducks (usually) don't bring heat anyway (#65 sacks / #105 TFL)
>> odd stat here : TT with the #96 RZ O (TD) vs Oregon #120 RZ D

Oregon O vs TT D
* Ducks can run on most anybody (5.9/217) - they probably struggle early, but I think late they can control this game - TT hasn't faced an O like this one. Ducks are about as explosive as TT (less so running) Tech defends both well. TT brings heat of course, but Oregon protects well, QB Moore can escape the rush, make plays.

I THINK OREGON IS ABLE TO MAKE MORE STOPS THAN TEXAS TECH


SOS- TT #66 / O #11
O- TT #59 / O #30
D- TT #56 / O #25

ST - TT #32 / O #40
TO margin - TT # 2/ O #29
FP - TT #1 / O #41


$ Incredible job by TT getting here this fast, but too much too soon for me - Red Raiders should get a wake up call here
>> strong lean UNDER
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Great write up and deep dive….one and only GOAT.
LFG Oregon D!
 
Will probably pass out, so ....

Bama/Indy - lean Bama at 7+, but don't wanna bet against INDY - so I'll play Bama 1H +4' / ML- maybe Indy 2H

Georgia / Ole Miss - smaller Georgia -6 , strong lean OVER
* as usual, Georgia live / 2H is probably best, might play Ole Miss 1Q/1H
 
NTX/ Rice - Rice should get murdered, but not one dime of my money will be spent on Southwest Texas State Teachers College as a favorite....

Navy/ Cinn - Navy the only way -TT / live/ 2H for me - (already in ML with Army)

WF/ MSU- slight lean WF -.more later

Zona/ SMU - love Zona (barring mass opt outs) more later
 
bookieassassin said:
NTX/ Rice - Rice should get murdered, but not one dime of my money will be spent on Southwest Texas State Teachers College as a favorite....

Navy/ Cinn - Navy the only way -TT / live/ 2H for me - (already in ML with Army)

WF/ MSU- slight lean WF -.more later

Zona/ SMU - love Zona (barring mass opt outs) more later
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Lolz BOL today BA
 
Zona / SMU

Line is moving towards SMU :
* Zona HC said he might have opt outs - he's not saying until game time. SMU has few announced.
* SMU BEAT MIAMI

This one is meaningless to SMU - HC doesn't care about bowls - he gets his guys to play, then goes thru the motions. Recall the pitiful performance vs BYU and B College. Huge for Zona, in the 2Y under HC Brennan, off 4-8

SMU played most of the year like they didn't care (check boxscores) - but got up for tougher opponents. Won @ Clemson, beat Miami, crushed Louisville. Played much better at year's end - then "holy shit we're going back to the play-offs!"..... only to lose at Cal.
>> so you're telling me they get up for this one?

MATCHUP

On paper these teams look similar, strong O & D, weak ST. BUT Zona matches up great vs SMU

Pony O got better towards year's end, but they can't run (when they need to) - Zona is tough vs the run, and #6 in creating havoc, and has probably the nation's best pass D / all 4 DB's were all B12 (53% - 156 yds/g - 9 TD/ 19 INT)

KEY here - SMU D tough vs the run, but weak vs the pass, and terrible vs teams that can create pass explosives (#130). If you can throw it over the top, like Cal, TCU, and Baylor - and ZONA, you can beat 'em.


Zona is really a solid, underrated team - much better than I thought

TO margin - #1 / +16.......SMU #8
FP (field position) - #2 ........SMU #89
* what this means is that Zona begins their drives at the 35 YL (SMU 29 YL) - their opponents 27 YL (SMU 30 YL)

They can run, and stop the run - decent at creating explosives - great at stopping them (#28 run/ #5 pass)

They are weak offensively in the RZ, Pony D strong (#108 vs #4) - SMU has a slim edge the other way as well.


>>> the only negatives here? - Zona has mucho opt outs last minute, AND it might turn out that HC Brennan doesn't care about bowls either. So far he's lost each one su/ats - all weak performances (at SJSU)

But IMO a strong play on Zona - I added to the play with the line move.
 
Bubbalicious said:
B
But we dont know opt outs
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this is a fade SMU play mostly - they could have opt outs too

Zona should be all in - Ponies were looking to play-offs, not the stinkin' Holiday Bowl.
>> Zona is thrilled to be here off 4-8, now playing a play-off team from LY in SMU - they are BUILDING A PROGRAM - SMU is built. Plus they've only been to 2 bowls in the last 10 years (2023 beat OU - 2017 lost to Purdue). Last bowl win was that Hawaii Bowl in 2012
 
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