2025-26 BOWL GUIDE

Not sure why CAL didn’t kill more clock before their last TD…and what was that pooch kick. Poor coaching by old boy….

I stormed out the front door on the 3rd defensive offsides on the same drive at the end. Undisciplined jumps and a few other breaks. I was certain CAL would leave under 40 seconds upon kickoff (and no stupid squib).

That spin move by Micah to get just that extra half yard was something special. Dude man was lit up 4-5 times and lost his helmet 3 other times. Little man with big cajones. I thought certainly he was Pau after that first blast to the chin and ribs..:. He took the game by the reigns and Hawaii just wanted this one .::as you predicted so humbly.

Will be a fantastic Christmas, thanks Poncho!
 
not much tomorrow boys ....
* lean CMU - but NW will show up and play hard .....CMU pass D might be a problem. Most likely look to play NW live/2H. Strong lean under of course
* strong lean New Mexico, but PJ doesn't lose bowl games - NMX has a massive ST edge (15 > 124)
* maybe (over) in that ridiculous FIU/UTSA game - maybe lean FIU, but they have a ton of guys missing (UTSA has 25+, including 7 defensive starters)


adding smaller - juiced at BM

Houston -2

$ more work to do - just think they will be the focused team. LSU ? - expecting massive opt outs - don't see them caring much about this one - but said the same thing LY vs Baylor......warning I'm a Willie Fritz homer ha



SDSU vs NTX

QUESTION:

What if Navy, or Army was playing North Texas - and getting 6, would you take it?
>> now, what if these 2 had:

* an OL that averaged 6-6/340
* QB 6-3/230 that could fly
* one of nation's best ST (#1 SP+)
* a great D that could really rush the passer, AND was among the nation's best at preventing explosive plays (#8 rush/#2 pass)

The injury to starting QB Denegal, (IMO) looks like it will be beneficial here - he couldn't run much, and was a weak passer. This should make them basically a service academy team (kinda are anyway)- as starter Bert Emanuel Jr can't throw at all - BUT HE CAN REALLY RUN. Recall his days at CMU, been awhile but he once ran for almost 300 vs Buffalo. Plus now the line is 6.
* problem? - he hasn't played much, mostly due to injury - but appears to be healthy. This one is huge for him - a great game could get him some portal $$ - but no doubt he could be rusty here for sure. Lewis is a fine offensive mind, and should have a package for him to succeed. 3rd stringer is a true Fr......

HC Lewis has finally slowed their O down (he loves to play lightning fast) - current pace #119, a play every 28.5 sec.
>> NTX is tough vs the pass - very weak vs the run, with an undersized front, outweighed by about 65 lbs/man. SDSU's top RB is 225 as well.....


BIG PICTURE: SDSU has been building towards this one - 2Y under Lewis (2024 3-9 / 2023 4-8) - this year 9-3. NTX has as well - but got to the brink of a PLAY-OFF berth, only to see their HC / great QB leave...... now what? They go from playing OLE MISS, to a MTW team in freakin' Albuquerque. You would think their best players opt out - but it's hard to tell these days.

$$$ FADE THE BURST BUBBLE TEAM $$$

SDSU bowls - 2022 lost to MTS (-6)
2021 won by 14 vs UTSA
2019 crushed CMU this bowl
* HC Lewis 1-1 su/ats

NTX - 2024 lost to TXST by 2 (+14)
2022 lost by 3 to Boise (+11)
* lost 7 bowls/row 2-5 ats - last bowl win 2014


KEY here, is that SDSU matches up great vs the (now) LEAN GREEN:

NTX O can run and throw, and is very explosive
>> SDSU D is #16 SP+ ..... #17 vs the run (3.4) ....#5 or so vs the pass / #12 passes defended .....they've allowed only 7 TD in the 2H all year.
Aztec D is great vs run and pass explosives....
* true they played a weak run of QB's, but note Cal QB JKS was totally shut down - 18/41 - 5.5/att - 0 TD/ 2 INT
NOTE : SP+ is strength of schedule adjusted

NTX D is tough vs the pass, but weak vs the run (#114 5.0/rush), and defending rush explosives (#110)
>> SDSU can't throw at all (and won't here) - but have a tough running game (4.5/rush) - are explosive (#36) - and prevent havoc (#24) - note NTX D only #81 in creating havoc


$$ I'm adding to this one at 6 - and to the ML.....UNDER if you hit it now, makes a lot of sense. I'll probably play 1H.
* I think I would play this one at the current number if NTX was at full strength. Recall WMU and Army pushed them to the limit on the road. Army had 387 rushing, and had 3 TO's or probably would have won. WMU held the ball for over 36 minutes, limiting the NTX O - lost by 3. The seldom used QB is a concern - BUT I've always liked to play a team WITH THE INJURED PLAYER - as his teammates step up their play - opponent often lets up a bit.
 
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NTX's top players are guaranteed a starting spot at Okie State, AND a nice payday- it would be dumb af to play here, esp. vs an aggressive D. But doesn't matter, I'll add to my bet at 7/7' - SDSU will win anyway. With nothing at all to play for, except to protect themselves from injury - Aztecs should punish these boys late.

* check the Army / WMU box-scores - both not as physical, and about a TD worse than SDSU

Their defensive players? will want no part of the crazy Aztec Samoan OL - left to right:
6-9/340 - 6-5/350 - 6-4/335 - 6-4/340 - 6-8/340
 
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Im stunned. 3 million dollar+ NIL deal on the table for Mestemaker and he's going to play? Both USF and ODU QB's were in the same situation and both opted out of playing...this is really fishy to me...
 
Local paper (Denton Record Chronicle) says he will play - he's listed #1 on official depth chart.....

If so, he's getting horrible advice - he doesn't need an audition for an SEC / B10 school - this is lose-lose for him. Pisses me off, because I bet a terrible line, if he plays, line should be 10ish. I'll probably wait for the game to start, expecting a fast start for NTX - add to the play then. Hopefully Aztecs start a bit better than Hawaii ha.
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Are the top RBs and WRs playing? Hawkins got hurt last game.....
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Yep the problem with DM playing - is that the other guys are likely to play too (or he wouldn't)...... but who tf knows, NONE may play just as we thought. These idiots THAT DON'T NEED AN AUDITION ANYWAY, are risking injury that immediately kills any big NIL deal. Hawkins especially can get a great deal.

1) wait for the game to start - see who plays - NTX should get up early (SDSU QB might struggle early) - look for 10/14 for the Aztecs
>> once announced line should steam close to 9'/10

2) IF these guys play - it is unlikely they play a full game - especially after a few Samoan brain scramblers ha
 
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Rjdbruin said:
I would just like a few competitive games
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HORRIBLE matchups

And offensive play has been brutal, as if many didn't work out at all - penalties.....turnovers
>> how many CLEAN games have we seen?

NMX/Minny should be good
Clem/PSU - ugly but good
GT/BYU - GTech might say F it, or roll - good game probably
Virg/Mizzou - might be good
Tenn/Ill - great game?
Vandy/Iowa - fantastic, can't wait to see what my boi Nate Diaz Pavia does ha
Cinn/Navy - fine game
Duke/Zona St - good one

That Army line is dropping - with the news that star WR Bell will play - and is trying to convice others to join him. This probably means back-up QB Evers will be ready - otherwise it's a 4th stringer.....
 
mykzaub=n said:
Im stunned. 3 million dollar+ NIL deal on the table for Mestemaker and he's going to play? Both USF and ODU QB's were in the same situation and both opted out of playing...this is really fishy to me...
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Maybe he's just bumping up the line - having a buddy play SDSU large .......😇

Just being silly - but it would be kinda funny, here we are taking this so seriously....
>> and he's sitting around with his buddies (YOU KNOW THEY TALK ABOUT THIS KINDA STUFF) - "hey check this shit out, I'll announce I'm back in - I'll warm up, then play a quarter or so, or maybe not at all haha"

You guys know better than my old azz, but every college guy I know is heavy into crypto, and gambling. Rich kids that go to SMU/TCU.
 
bookieassassin said:
Maybe he's just bumping up the line - having a buddy play SDSU large .......😇

Just being silly - but it would be kinda funny, here we are taking this so seriously....
>> and he's sitting around with his buddies (YOU KNOW THEY TALK ABOUT THIS KINDA STUFF) - "hey check this shit out, I'll announce I'm back in - I'll warm up, then play a quarter or so, or maybe not at all haha"

You guys know better than my old azz, but every college guy I know is heavy into crypto, and gambling. Rich kids that go to SMU/TCU.
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I will bite and play the under 280 pass yards
 
mykzaub=n said:
Overs on the NW RB, Caleb Komolafe, are a very good bet. Joseph Himon has been ruled out who was the RB2, get this in before people hammer it.
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  1. If you told me NW would win by 30 and Komolafe would have 50 yards, I'd have said who broke his ankle in the 2nd quarter.

  2. The run out here is bottom 5% outcome
 
bookieassassin said:
Maybe he's just bumping up the line - having a buddy play SDSU large .......😇

Just being silly - but it would be kinda funny, here we are taking this so seriously....
>> and he's sitting around with his buddies (YOU KNOW THEY TALK ABOUT THIS KINDA STUFF) - "hey check this shit out, I'll announce I'm back in - I'll warm up, then play a quarter or so, or maybe not at all haha"

You guys know better than my old azz, but every college guy I know is heavy into crypto, and gambling. Rich kids that go to SMU/TCU.
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I just don't believe it at this point....I see no reason for them to prove anything on their way out the door and it looks like a perfect spot for him/Hawkins/Young/Coleman to all just show up in street clothes pregame
 
You boys guessed right .....
>> way too many games today for me ha

ECU/Pitt - lean UNDER / slight lean Pitt
* an all in ECU would be solid - but OC/DC/QB gone - now without knowing exactly who will play QB, it's impossible to predict how they will play. IF it's 10 yr veteran Wright (can't throw) - Pitt D matches up extremely well. Narduzzi could care less, plus this is a horrible bowl for them ....... ECU played in THIS same bowl last year (fade) , and whipped NCST. Pitt could crush them - or get beat.

Clem/Penn St- an even more ridiculous game - might be watchable tho
* I just took Dabo / Klubnik to win somehow- Tigers have won a post season game every year since 2011 (wut). I don't see how Penn St puts anything into this one - barring a few of their stars showing up to put a few last minute scouting points on tape (RB).... But Clemson with 25+ guys out now - including 10+ starters. STAY FAR AWAY / lean under. OR maybe look for Clemson/Klubnik to pull away late. If Penn St has anything here it should be apparent EARLY in the game - they won't start playing hard 2H.

back later
 
small - juiced at H

ARMY TT over 24'

I played about 4am at -102 - current 26 or so probably fine - Army scores in bowls - esp if opposing D doesn't - ENDEAVOR TO PERSEVERE - they have the bowl record 70 points. We don't know who will play for UCONN- great WR, but knucklehead Bell is now playing (supposedly) and trying to convince key guys to play. IF UConn D is full strength - Army still moves the ball no problem. If UConn QB Evers plays, and key guys on O do too - then UConn moves it >> Army has more possessions (UC pace #59) .

Note UConn gave up 37 to Rice - 45 to FAU - 45 to Delaware - terrible vs the run and run explosives / don't create havoc (only 5 forced fumbles). The current number probably works - but I'll look to play Army live/2H - Huskies might compete for awhile. Army ML / combined with another (Navy?) should be safe.
 
GT / BYU

BYU is the 'obvious' choice here, but their best player (RB Martin), and back-up are OUT. GT stinks on D, and should get smashed here, but they seem to play much better vs top opponents (see Georgia). GT off a disappointing year, and great OC Faulkner is gone.

I'll look for a live/2H play on GT, expecting a fast start from BYU / QB Haynes King playing in his last game. IF other key guys on O show up - they can cover and win this one. Maybe a strong OVER play (live / 2H for me)

$$$ Under HC Key - when a dog in a tight game (<6') - GT has never lost (5-0 su/ats), covering by 83 points, and is on a 7-0 run. Note BYU is tough in bowls, but 3-2 / 2-3 as a favorite. However, they tend to NOT lose when favored 20/21.
 
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Cheesy play - for the idiots that didn't have the good sense - to JUST BET THE OPENING NUMBER ON ARMY AND NAVY (me)

Army / Navy ML

-120 or so

Cincy needs a bowl win (1st bowl under HC), and is a solid running dog here maybe, but has too many opt outs to compete/win here (7 defensive starters or so + QB) - >> Navy has a strong SR class, led by QB Horvath - shouldn't lose here
 
bookieassassin said:
Cheesy play - for the idiots that didn't have the good sense - to JUST BET THE OPENING NUMBER ON ARMY AND NAVY (me)

Army / Navy ML

-120 or so

Cincy needs a bowl win (1st bowl under HC), and is a solid running dog here maybe, but has too many opt outs to compete/win here (7 defensive starters or so + QB) - >> Navy has a strong SR class, led by QB Horvath - shouldn't lose here
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When do we bet Army live?
 
Miami / Fresno

Stay far away - or bet the UNDER

Crazy to fade Miami in bowls (7-0 ats run)
* ST edge - #12 - #70
* TO edge #23 - #41

BUT - they were in this same bowl LY, and their best players are out - WR Perry leads the nation in yards/catch - on a team that can't move the ball - DE Trick is a great player. Terrible QB play

Fresno is a great bowl team historically - but lost LY in Potato Bowl. Most all their players are in - a few injuries (TE / OT/S)

BUT - they have QB problems - Warner is better, but a TO MACHINE - so here they are supposed to start CONKLIN (49% - 1 TD/2 INT - 3.7/attempt) - I might look to hit Fresno - if they send Warner in late - I believe this is last game (whew)
 
Virginia/Mizzou

This is the first bowl under HC Elliott for Virginia - tough to tell what kind of mental state they're in (brink of play-offs), but I think they finish strong here. Big here is a large ST edge (#44 - #109), and TO margin edge (#23-#104).
>. tough vs the run #18 (3.3-rush / 110 yds) and rush explosives (#21)

$$ I'll probably wait and make sure Virginia's key guys show up - look to play them live at a better number - strong lean UNDER.
* cheesy 6' teaser? ...... +10' / under 50



WTF is this - NTX is all in - SDSU with the opt outs?
 
AND,...............

SDSU is already panicking, down 8. I'm not smart enough to buy out of these - but if they don't calm down and run the ball regardless - they have no shot.

That last series was unbelievable....
 
haha


you kiddin'..... I was laying out the dress blues / polishing up the Desert Eagle .......:angel-animated-emoji:


With that lineup - NTX should have easily been favored by 14, maybe 17. Didn't check to see who all missed for SDSU
 
Once again everything went against..calls, turnovers, major opt out disadvantage, 3rd down conversions. As frustrating as it gets. I put on the lucky shirt… kicked the dog out of the house, pulled out the bourbon way to early, had all my boys text me what a fool I was that” SDSU couldn’t tackle a wet paper towl”,

💥 A 3rd stringer this time (Hawaii reference) that hits this winning TD with the reach across. Wow 😮. I think I’m even going to church tomorrow to give thanks! Incredible result. Thank you sir the GOAT

Add: UVA Teaser…. Straight Assassin 🏴‍☠️. Another banger winner
 
aplous said:
That was a cover for the ages. QB who hasn’t played a snap all year rallies them for 2 late scores on multiple 4th down miracles. That’s what bowl season is all about baby.
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Hard to believe, an absolute worst case scenario....

NTX is all in - I think all their key guys played, including great RB and WR. SDSU is down like 6-7 starters - including TWO shutdown CBs, and they lose any edge they had when backup QB got hurt (175 yds rushing in the 2Q). With the CBs out Aztecs couldn't add extra run help - allowing NTX to run all day.

3rd string QB can't run, or throw.... if these exact same lineups played today, line would be 17 at least - maybe more.
 
BIRMINGHAM Bowl

Georgia Southern
2:00 pm. ET
Appalachian St -1

G- 66-131-85
A- 93-120-37

TO - ASU #68 / GASO # 47
pace - ASU #10 / GASO #40

1) * App St has over 30 in portal - we have no idea who will play - QB will be 3rd/4th string guy
>> most are on O - D is fairly intact (probably)
* GASO - fairly intact - QB/RB should play - QB French needs like 47 yds to be GASO's all time leading passer - RB Arnold is on depth chart (huge if he plays)

2) * GASO HC Helton is a terrible bowl coach - he's coached 8 bowl games - lost 6 in a row su/ats - he's won 2, covered 1, both times as an interim HC. Last/only bowl win was as an interim at USC 2013. He allows any opt outs to play.
* App St is great in bowls - winning 7/8 (5-3 ats)

$ slight lean App St for me at current number - IF RB Arnold plays, and is healthy for GASO, I would think they win SU - plus captains QB French - 7th year LB Harrington playing final game. This is a huge rivalry, and will probably be a close game (somehow)


reminder: that App St -1 is SP+ / teams at full strength
 
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58.5 seems like a pretty high number for this game, given APP ST qb situation, and injury status of RB Arnold for GA Southern. Note App St. horrible on 3 down conversions at only 33% and would not figure to improve that with 3rd or 4th qb starting. GA Southern gets no pressure only 12 sacks all year.
 
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