2025-26 BOWL GUIDE

FRISCO Bowl

UNLV -10'
9:00 pm. ET
Ohio
U- 14-87-58
O- 88-67-129

$ lean Ohio at >7 for me - lean over
>> I'll wait and see how Ohio is playing - hopefully they start slow / Rebels take a nice early lead- their QB/ RB can do some damage to this UNLV D..... terrible vs run, and pass explosives. Ohio O much better at preventing havoc/penetration. This one could see multiple lead changes - IMO last one with the ball wins - kinda thing.

Note Ohio has seen mucho chaos, but they are great in bowls (6-0/5-1 run), and are strong internally thru their coaching changes (promote from within)
 
bookieassassin said:
FRISCO Bowl

UNLV -10'
9:00 pm. ET
Ohio
U- 14-87-58
O- 88-67-129

$ lean Ohio at >7 for me - lean over
>> I'll wait and see how Ohio is playing - hopefully they start slow / Rebels take a nice early lead- their QB/ RB can do some damage to this UNLV D..... terrible vs run, and pass explosives. Ohio O much better at preventing havoc/penetration. This one could see multiple lead changes - IMO last one with the ball wins - kinda thing.

Note Ohio has seen mucho chaos, but they are great in bowls (6-0/5-1 run), and are strong internally thru their coaching changes (promote from within)
Click to expand...
Enjoy the late game. Thanks for mapping this one out.
 
bookieassassin said:
OVER seems like a good idea .....plus this one is INDOORS, at the sorry Cowboy's practice field - usual soccer field is under construction.
>> BUT both play slow - Ohio #109 in pace / UNLV #89

I think you should get a better number on the total live/2H - Ohio might start fast, 7 would be a strong lean for me....
>> btw, good point - interim HC was their DC - so he might go conservative with a lead - you bet

Happy Holidays buddy
Click to expand...
What # are you targeting on an in-play over?
 
BA how big of a loss is Jackson Harris for the Bows.? He was the real stretch guy for that offense. Is your take that Cal will not be prepared for this game with interim and other personnel problems? Home for the Bows etc...motivation.
 
BA - I can't find any solid info on Cal & Hawaii injuries etc......Are all of Cals top 3 playing (QB, wr, rb)? Those 3 are their whole team basically.....Hawaii just missing Harris.....but he's caught about half their passing tds this year.....Can Ashlock and the rest of the roster replace him? Seems like a lot of running and short passes......just wondering what your thinking.....line has swung to Hawaii as you predicted.....-1.5 now
 
Here are some prop thoughts for tonight's game:

California:
- Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is their QB. From Hawaii where the bowl game is being played. He's started since day 1. Kind of felt like they let him sling it but not too much. On the season they're like 53% pass or so but in the last 6 games they're closer to 58% or so. And in their last 3 that number is more like 61-62% pass. He's a complete non-runner. He'll end with negative rushing yards.

- Kendrick Raphael is the RB1. They've been super thin at RB and this guy has carried a heavy workload. Recently he had 33 of 37 rushing attempts. One problem, he's not good. He may run for 3 ypc, so if you're betting any overs then you better hope for serious volume. And if you're betting unders then you better hope the volume isn't there. He's used pretty decently in the passing game.

- Jacob de Jesus is the alpha WR1. This guy could see 25 targets, and it wouldn't shock us. His reception line is 9.5 or 10.5 depending on the book. He's a short yardage guy. Low yards per target and low average depth of target. But again, heavy volume.

- Mason Mini is the TE1. Talented guy but always hurt.

- Mark Hamper and Jordan King are depth WRs that are hurt. No word on if they're playing. Trond Grizzell would benefit the most from those 2 being out although it's probably a pretty nominal amount.

Hawaii: (There's not much here to even bet...)
- Micah Alejado is the QB1. He's apparently still battling a foot injury that he hurt in week 0 (August). He in theory can run a little but not if he's banged up still. He's a tiny little lefty QB. From Hawaii. The offense in theory should allow for them to sling it around. Lots of shorter route targets but heavier volume in theory. It really hasn't worked under their Head Coach though.

- Jackson Harris was their best WR by end of the year. He's in the portal and won't play. Nick Cenacle is another WR depth piece that was supposed to be good but really hasn't been. He was dinged up, but I think he plays. These two guys are pretty key to if Ashlock sees 15-20 targets or if Cenacle's return limits that high end target share.

- Brandon White and Tama Uilata are two WRs that also benefit from Jackson Harris gone to the portal and Cenacle being dinged up. White/Tama benefit from Harris gone and would benefit even more if Cenacle doesn't play or is banged up. There's some doubt here as to what the actual pecking order is after Ashlock.

-I wouldn't touch any RB numbers. Cam Barfield and Landon Sims are the top two RBs. Sims is the RB1 but is a former TE. He's very average at best. Barfield a better runner but getting less usage.
 
mykzaub=n said:
Here are some prop thoughts for tonight's game:

California:
- Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is their QB. From Hawaii where the bowl game is being played. He's started since day 1. Kind of felt like they let him sling it but not too much. On the season they're like 53% pass or so but in the last 6 games they're closer to 58% or so. And in their last 3 that number is more like 61-62% pass. He's a complete non-runner. He'll end with negative rushing yards.

- Kendrick Raphael is the RB1. They've been super thin at RB and this guy has carried a heavy workload. Recently he had 33 of 37 rushing attempts. One problem, he's not good. He may run for 3 ypc, so if you're betting any overs then you better hope for serious volume. And if you're betting unders then you better hope the volume isn't there. He's used pretty decently in the passing game.

- Jacob de Jesus is the alpha WR1. This guy could see 25 targets, and it wouldn't shock us. His reception line is 9.5 or 10.5 depending on the book. He's a short yardage guy. Low yards per target and low average depth of target. But again, heavy volume.

- Mason Mini is the TE1. Talented guy but always hurt.

- Mark Hamper and Jordan King are depth WRs that are hurt. No word on if they're playing. Trond Grizzell would benefit the most from those 2 being out although it's probably a pretty nominal amount.

Hawaii: (There's not much here to even bet...)
- Micah Alejado is the QB1. He's apparently still battling a foot injury that he hurt in week 0 (August). He in theory can run a little but not if he's banged up still. He's a tiny little lefty QB. From Hawaii. The offense in theory should allow for them to sling it around. Lots of shorter route targets but heavier volume in theory. It really hasn't worked under their Head Coach though.

- Jackson Harris was their best WR by end of the year. He's in the portal and won't play. Nick Cenacle is another WR depth piece that was supposed to be good but really hasn't been. He was dinged up, but I think he plays. These two guys are pretty key to if Ashlock sees 15-20 targets or if Cenacle's return limits that high end target share.

- Brandon White and Tama Uilata are two WRs that also benefit from Jackson Harris gone to the portal and Cenacle being dinged up. White/Tama benefit from Harris gone and would benefit even more if Cenacle doesn't play or is banged up. There's some doubt here as to what the actual pecking order is after Ashlock.

-I wouldn't touch any RB numbers. Cam Barfield and Landon Sims are the top two RBs. Sims is the RB1 but is a former TE. He's very average at best. Barfield a better runner but getting less usage.
Click to expand...
Here is the likely the reason for JDJ o/u line being set at 10.5:
"Cal's Jacob De Jesus is currently 12 receptions away from breaking the ACC single-season record."
 
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Some additional food for thought on the game tonight...I know the main angle is the 'motivation' (or lack there of), bad bowl teams, etc.....but what are your thoughts on the strong connection Cal seems to have with Hawaii? Several Cal players (JKS, Manutai, Saole-Mckenzie) have roots in the state as well as their interim HC Rolo who is a UH alumni and former HC.

I've seen some reports from beat reporters in Cal forums that: "For what it's worth (and it's not much) when I've seen some of the players around town, they're acting very respectful and professional and seem to be having the "appropriate" amount of fun." So perhaps, they could be taking the game seriously? If that were the case, the talent disparity (except on ST) is a major factor at play here. With Hawaii's inability to rush the football, the loss of Jackson (and potentially Cenacle, if still injured) is a massive downgrade for their passing offense. Cal's Pass Defense - 32nd with a 119 Passer Rating and 37th at 191 yards per game, is actually pretty solid and they have decent coverage outside the numbers.

I definitely see this as more of a slog, and a battle that's won in the trenches. I just don't feel confident either way, kind of feel like the Under is the only play here.
 
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mykzaub=n said:
Some additional food for thought on the game tonight...I know the main angle is the 'motivation' (or lack there of), bad bowl teams, etc.....but what are your thoughts on the strong connection Cal seems to have with Hawaii? Several Cal players (JKS, Manutai, Saole-Mckenzie) have roots in the state as well as their interim HC Rolo who is a UH alumni and former HC.

I've seen some reports from beat reporters in Cal forums that: "For what it's worth (and it's not much) when I've seen some of the players around town, they're acting very respectful and professional and seem to be having the "appropriate" amount of fun." So perhaps, they could be taking the game seriously? If that were the case, the talent disparity (except on ST) is a major factor at play here. With Hawaii's inability to rush the football, the loss of Jackson (and potentially Cenacle, if still injured) is a massive downgrade for their passing offense. Cal's Pass Defense - 32nd with a 119 Passer Rating and 37th at 191 yards per game, is actually pretty solid and they have decent coverage outside the numbers.

I definitely see this as more of a slog, and a battle that's won in the trenches. I just don't feel confident either way, kind of feel like the Under is the only play here.
Click to expand...
Always been curious of the enthusiasm for the home team in this bowl game on Xmas Eve. Ie are the pumped for the big game types or more the be with the family for the holiday types. I simply don't know but I think fan base enthusiasm absolutely reflects team enthusiasm.
 
Going to track going fwd for my man BA here, so he has some copium for all the CLV he's accumulated lol:
From largest move to smallest:
  • GA Southern: Open +2.5, Current -7.5 (Pending)
  • Southern Miss: Open +4.5, Close -3 (Loss, 16-27)
  • Navy: Open -2.5, Current -7 (Pending)
  • Army: Open -3.5, Current -9 (Pending)
  • Pitt: Open -5.5, Current -10.5 (Pending)
  • Illinois: Open +5.5, Current +2.5 (Pending)
  • FIU: Open +8.5, Current +5.5 (Pending)
  • Texas: Open -5.5, Current-7 (Pending)
  • Louisville: Open -8.5, Close -12 (Win, 27-22)
  • LSU: Open +3.5, Current +2 (Pending)
  • Virginia: Open +6.5, Current +4 (Pending)
  • Hawaii: Open +2.5, Current -1 (Pending)
  • UNLV: Open -4.5, Close -6.5 (Loss, 10-17)
 
My top bowl play, and you know what that means : walk-out song ha
>> appropos to the slow climb by Hawaii - good enough for Hetfield, good enough for me




HAWAII Bowl

California
8:00 pm. ET
Hawaii -7
C- 87-75-82
H- 75-65-8


THIS A 'PLAY-OFF' GAME FOR HAWAII - IT IS AN EXHIBITION GAME FOR CAL

Hawaii has been building for THIS game since 2022
* 3-10 > 5-8 > 5-7 > 8-4

This is their first bowl under Timmy C.

They have the better D - the MUCH better ST (8 > 82) - better in the trenches on both sides of the ball - AND are playing at home, where they have covered 12/14, and 8/9 as a dog, by 135 points (15/g). Hawaii can rush the passer/ create a bit of havoc - Cal can't.

CAL? - off a disappointing year - they fired their coach / CLOSED OUT THEIR SEASON, with a huge win over ACC title hopeful SMU. THIS GAME IS A VACATION. They typically play to opponents level, historically they need a challenge to get up for a game - they got crushed at SDSU, and killed at Tree.
>> what this means, is that they will basically just show up, and play.

IS it possible this is good enough? Sure, but barring brain farts by Timmy C, several picks by QB - IMO it's remote
>> Hawaii needs to RUN here, and they should be able to, vs a weak Cal run D - if they make no effort, and don't stay on schedule - Cal can maybe stay in the game

* SMU (can't run at all) - BC - VT - TREE - and Duke, ran with no problem - season highs, or close for each


$ 5 units at +3 / 1 unit +130
>> also played 3, 6', 9'

I wouldn't expect this one to be all that close, but with current trends who knows - Cal might rally behind the interim /play their ass off?
>> IN the past, games like this, that fit my motivation model this well - were extremely high % plays. A recent trend seems to be guys playing in these games as an audition, for either the portal or NFL - which is great but confuses things a bit.


NOTE: if this one loses, maybe check the DFW news .....if you see that a senile old man was found : nekkid / BAC 0.30 / in a ditch / in the fetal position ......it's probably me, (maybe Randy Travis)....
 
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Timh said:
BA how big of a loss is Jackson Harris for the Bows.? He was the real stretch guy for that offense. Is your take that Cal will not be prepared for this game with interim and other personnel problems? Home for the Bows etc...motivation.
Click to expand...

He's their deep threat - the only guy that can stretch a D (11 games / 74 targets / 49 catches / 963 yds)
>> OVER guys, might want to reconsider
 
mykzaub=n said:
Some additional food for thought on the game tonight...I know the main angle is the 'motivation' (or lack there of), bad bowl teams, etc.....but what are your thoughts on the strong connection Cal seems to have with Hawaii? Several Cal players (JKS, Manutai, Saole-Mckenzie) have roots in the state as well as their interim HC Rolo who is a UH alumni and former HC.

I've seen some reports from beat reporters in Cal forums that: "For what it's worth (and it's not much) when I've seen some of the players around town, they're acting very respectful and professional and seem to be having the "appropriate" amount of fun." So perhaps, they could be taking the game seriously? If that were the case, the talent disparity (except on ST) is a major factor at play here. With Hawaii's inability to rush the football, the loss of Jackson (and potentially Cenacle, if still injured) is a massive downgrade for their passing offense. Cal's Pass Defense - 32nd with a 119 Passer Rating and 37th at 191 yards per game, is actually pretty solid and they have decent coverage outside the numbers.

I definitely see this as more of a slog, and a battle that's won in the trenches. I just don't feel confident either way, kind of feel like the Under is the only play here.
Click to expand...
UNDER is surely the way to go .....

For me - Cal get's up early - Hawaii is pressing .... Hawaii takes over 2H - beats the crap outta JKS

*might play 1H under
 
bookieassassin said:
Damn - fine work boys .....
>> this thread is probably better without ME in it ha .....
Click to expand...
YOU ARE the Thread brother! We are all just bystanders trying to gather as much wisdom and info from you as possible. I've had this game circled as the one non-playoff game I was most excited about, and will hunker down with you on the Bows, I never doubt the GOAT of Bowl season. And here's some last minute confidence boost, check out how "locked in" the Cal boys have been in Hawaii:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2003329062241206722


LETS GET IT!!!
 
Anybody else .....?

Turn a game off for awhile - hoping that will change your luck? haha

I'll admit to doing it all the time.....you watch, if I go to a Christmas movie, pop back in late 3Q > Hawaii will be kicking their azz ....
 
I’m taking an action swing at CAL under 13’ TT 2nd half…. Hope #57 be healthy. Yeah KJ that’s one thing about Hawaii everyone smokes especially the hot supermodel workout chicks that can’t have a drink affect their bodies lol. Not just hippie chicks like bezerkley
 
Wolfeman said:
I’m taking an action swing at CAL under 13’ TT 2nd half…. Hope #57 be healthy. Yeah KJ that’s one thing about Hawaii everyone smokes especially the hot supermodel workout chicks that can’t have a drink affect their bodies lol. Not just hippie chicks like bezerkley
Click to expand...
Cal QB, not that good - poor pocket control
 
bookieassassin said:
My top bowl play, and you know what that means : walk-out song ha
>> appropos to the slow climb by Hawaii - good enough for Hetfield, good enough for me




HAWAII Bowl

California
8:00 pm. ET
Hawaii -7
C- 87-75-82
H- 75-65-8


THIS A 'PLAY-OFF' GAME FOR HAWAII - IT IS AN EXHIBITION GAME FOR CAL

Hawaii has been building for THIS game since 2022
* 3-10 > 5-8 > 5-7 > 8-4

This is their first bowl under Timmy C.

They have the better D - the MUCH better ST (8 > 82) - better in the trenches on both sides of the ball - AND are playing at home, where they have covered 12/14, and 8/9 as a dog, by 135 points (15/g). Hawaii can rush the passer/ create a bit of havoc - Cal can't.

CAL? - off a disappointing year - they fired their coach / CLOSED OUT THEIR SEASON, with a huge win over ACC title hopeful SMU. THIS GAME IS A VACATION. They typically play to opponents level, historically they need a challenge to get up for a game - they got crushed at SDSU, and killed at Tree.
>> what this means, is that they will basically just show up, and play.

IS it possible this is good enough? Sure, but barring brain farts by Timmy C, several picks by QB - IMO it's remote
>> Hawaii needs to RUN here, and they should be able to, vs a weak Cal run D - if they make no effort, and don't stay on schedule - Cal can maybe stay in the game

* SMU (can't run at all) - BC - VT - TREE - and Duke, ran with no problem - season highs, or close for each


$ 5 units at +3 / 1 unit +130
>> also played 3, 6', 9'

I wouldn't expect this one to be all that close, but with current trends who knows - Cal might rally behind the interim /play their ass off?
>> IN the past, games like this, that fit my motivation model this well - were extremely high % plays. A recent trend seems to be guys playing in these games as an audition, for either the portal or NFL - which is great but confuses things a bit.


NOTE: if this one loses, maybe check the DFW news .....if you see that a senile old man was found : nekkid / BAC 0.30 / in a ditch / in the fetal position ......it's probably me, (maybe Randy Travis)....
Click to expand...
Not AC/DC but... "The BOWS are back in town!...The BOWS are back in town!"
 
Wolfeman said:
I’m taking an action swing at CAL under 13’ TT 2nd half…. Hope #57 be healthy. Yeah KJ that’s one thing about Hawaii everyone smokes especially the hot supermodel workout chicks that can’t have a drink affect their bodies lol. Not just hippie chicks like bezerkley
Click to expand...

Genius post here ha
 
Oh that was my Christmas!! Cheeee huu from the islands….thanks BA. My largest pull in 2 years. wtf was I thinking??
Lost my voice, dog is hiding in the closet, bourbon bottle on low…had to check my drawers fun streaks.

Might not sleep until Friday. Hopefully SDSU, and Zona go a little easier on the heart! Man that was living right there… congratulations BA and others.





Jesus Joseph and Mary
 
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