2025-26 BOWL GUIDE

ODU - RUN TEMPO / VARY THE PACE- ROLL HIS (no throwing ) ASS OUT.......DO SOMETHING TO SLOW THE RUSH YOU F'N IDIOT -FFS - COUNT "ONE - TWO - THROW"


68 VENTURES Bowl
Louisiana -2
8:30 pm. ET
Delaware
L- 76-117-104
D- 72-127-98

Only thing I see here boys, is maybe the OVER.....both teams are high variance - neither should stop the other....
>> Delaware can only throw - ULL can only run

First look is to fade the BOWL VIRGIN, and the CUSA team vs Sun Belt... typically their goal has been met - just reaching a bowl - are they ready to win one yet?

ULL hasn't won a bowl under HC .....LY they made the SB title game, only to be spanked by the Herd, then destroyed by TCU in the Weedeater Bowl.

$ slight lean ULL for me - I'll look to play the OVER live/2H (busy might not post) - UL QB and UD RB are banged up

edit; missed it -- a defensive struggle? ......practically impossible ha
 
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Thursday, December 18th
XBOX Bowl

Missouri St -1
9:00 pm. ET
Arkansas St
M- 81-109-112
A- 99-105-65

WAY too many moving parts here boys......common theme so far

ASU - HC Butch Jones great bowl coach, numbers I've seen vary somehow - he's covered 6/7 I believe - LY beat BG in Ventures Bowl
* most seem ready to go - including fine QB, WR
* very weak running game/stopping the run - DL is aggressive (#20 sacks / #60 TFL)
* D is much tougher 2H
* play fast
* TURNOVER PRONE (QB can be forced into mistakes) #121 TO margin

MSU - HC is gone - OC N. Petrino will be interim - 1st bowl ever (1st year FBS)
* several key players are in the portal - most have said they would play
* underrated QB in his 7th year - but OL stinks (#135 TFL allowed / #132 Sack %) < ASU can bring heat recall
* struggle on early downs - #136 on yards to go on 3rd (8.8) < holy shit - so if they can't run / ASU is getting pressure......
* EXPLOSIVE PLAY EDGE - O passing explosives- MSU #13 / ASU D #85 .......ASU O #71/ MSU D #38
>> they give up YARDS (props?) < bend don't break scheme


$ For me slight lean ASU / stronger lean UNDER - game is INDOORS tho (not at that stupid soccer field / bad turf).... might play ASU 2H - 2H under, IF 1H is high scoring.....they have a way of staying in these games (QB is capable of making plays, leading a comeback ....he's a junior, so not sure if his last game or not? MSU would be the play, but with coach leaving?........but can't ignore the CUSA vs SB trend so far (2-0)
 
bookieassassin said:
ODU - RUN TEMPO / VARY THE PACE- ROLL HIS (no throwing ) ASS OUT.......DO SOMETHING TO SLOW THE RUSH YOU F'N IDIOT -FFS - COUNT "ONE - TWO - THROW"


68 VENTURES Bowl
Louisiana -2
8:30 pm. ET
Delaware
L- 76-117-104
D- 72-127-98

Only thing I see here boys, is maybe the OVER.....both teams are high variance - neither should stop the other....
>> Delaware can only throw - ULL can only run

First look is to fade the BOWL VIRGIN, and the CUSA team vs Sun Belt... typically their goal has been met - just reaching a bowl - are they ready to win one yet?

ULL hasn't won a bowl under HC .....LY they made the SB title game, only to be spanked by the Herd, then destroyed by TCU in the Weedeater Bowl.

$ slight lean ULL for me - I'll look to play the OVER live/2H (busy might not post) - UL QB and UD RB are banged up

edit; missed it -- a defensive struggle? ......practically impossible ha
Click to expand...
Money talks….Hoover walks. Bummer I was leaning Frogs as a dog…

Thinking Memphis comes prepared and ornery, as a dog at +3’ &ML

Roll Tide, grabbed that one out of the gates and one of my larger wagers….thank you for the early capping on that one in Norman. Happy Holidays Big Kahuna!! Mele kalikimaka …. Let’s win
 
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10:00AM KO ? - what

Sorry boys - old/slow/stupid

Friday, December 19th
MYRTLE BEACH Bowl

Kennesaw St -1
11:00 am. ET
Western Michigan
K- 66-81-102
W- 110-46-98


1) this is the 3rd year for (evidently) great HC Lance Taylor at WMU.....picked to finish 7th in the MAC
>> 4-8 > 6-6 (lost but covered vs S Ala in bowl) >> 9-4 !

Rugged azz team - great running game / tough - solid QB and excellent RB (both should play) - tough D / great pass rush (coverage weak tho)
>> QB has TWO turnover worthy plays .....all year. WMU has also ......covered 16/20 as a favorite

KEY? ......will edge rusher Nadame Tucker play? - he can take over this game - think if Anton Chigurh played football - this is huge because their overall pass D ain't great. If he's out, KSU can move the ball .....

KEY - I like the FOCUS and MOMENTUM for WMU here - better every year - this bowl is massive >> there is more work to be done.

2) KSU had a fantastic year - picked 11th in the sorry CUSA, finished 10-3, but faded down the stretch. This is their 2Y in FBS - fine HC's 1Y
>> their GOAL has been MET and SURPASSED ...... there is nothing left to do ...........theoretically.


$$ I like WMU here - playing a juiced 3 - will look to add live/2H - lean UNDER - might play 1H under 23'/24

>> IF WMU DE Tucker opts out - maybe hit the OVER immediately - if WMU is all in > KSU should get beat up
* note KSU QB is a (potential) opt out as well


$$ playing Memphis probably too .....

edit; I'll take a juiced 4 for Memphis small - and move on - NCST will likely have a ton of opt outs - Memphis might as well

NCST is a terrible bowl team - extremely overrated HC Doeren doesn't give af about bowls - he's lost the last 5 (1-4 ats)
>> Memphis loses their HC, which might be a good thing ha .....historically a great bowl team - I think they play hard here, and stay close in a high scoring game (lean over)
 
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tiny

WMU/KSU 1H under 23'

both D's are much stronger 1H (KSU D #34 scoring / WMU D #10) - IF 1H high scoring, 2H likely won't be - WMU takes charge (KSU run D weakens 2H / 3.9 1H > 5.1 2H)
 
bookieassassin said:
SO it's 14-0 before my dumbazz can even search for a live OVER ha ......... 👊
Click to expand...
21-0 now 😂 I bet WMU pregame....do we lean into your strategy of "teams generally don't pull off comebacks when they are outmatched in meaningless bowl games"? I was thinking of taking some crazy alt lines on WMU
 
mykzaub=n said:
21-0 now 😂 I bet WMU pregame....do we lean into your strategy of "teams generally don't pull off comebacks when they are outmatched in meaningless bowl games"? I was thinking of taking some crazy alt lines on WMU
Click to expand...

WELL..... typically it means the game doesn't flip....
>> meaning POOF! - KSU takes over, and comes back to win .....doesn't mean WMU will EXTEND (or maintain) the margin

Here I have no idea ......thinking WMU just grinds it out 2H, but KSU has little interest in tackling so far. KSU QB is very talented, so I wouldn't fade them moving it 2H


edit; hoping I don't do it ha ...... but looking at KSU TT over 14ish - WMU pass D, without Tucker's pressure especially, is vulnerable
 
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TREMENDO read on W.Mich 👀 Great looks….

That Bama/OU…with 41 pts O/U gonna be a humdinger..good old fashion smash 💥 . With you on Memphis BA, hoping 3’’s enough and maybe a ML 🙏🏼.
 
Wolfeman said:
TREMENDO read on W.Mich 👀 Great looks….

That Bama/OU…with 41 pts O/U gonna be a humdinger..good old fashion smash 💥 . With you on Memphis BA, hoping 3’’s enough and maybe a ML 🙏🏼.
Click to expand...

Merry Christmas buddy ....

Bama/OU a tough one ...... just a small hunch for me (KD vs BV). Full disclosure ha - I've underrated the Sooners all year.
>> Bama QB is probably hurt/limited a bit....Mateer has to be getting healthier - home field edge (recall LY's first round games) is huge, as is Sooner's ST edge...... so I might be looking for some buy back if necessary.
 
CPA-hole said:
But he wants to be paid like Tom Brady? I watched that too. Smh.
Click to expand...
T
bookieassassin said:
I'm CLEARLY not the demographic they're after haha...... but what are they doing man?

I used to love the coaches shows they would have ..... discussing football / strateg
Click to expand...

bookieassassin said:
10:00AM KO ? - what

Sorry boys - old/slow/stupid

Friday, December 19th
MYRTLE BEACH Bowl

Kennesaw St -1
11:00 am. ET
Western Michigan
K- 66-81-102
W- 110-46-98


1) this is the 3rd year for (evidently) great HC Lance Taylor at WMU.....picked to finish 7th in the MAC
>> 4-8 > 6-6 (lost but covered vs S Ala in bowl) >> 9-4 !

Rugged azz team - great running game / tough - solid QB and excellent RB (both should play) - tough D / great pass rush (coverage weak tho)
>> QB has TWO turnover worthy plays .....all year. WMU has also ......covered 16/20 as a favorite

KEY? ......will edge rusher Nadame Tucker play? - he can take over this game - think if Anton Chigurh played football - this is huge because their overall pass D ain't great. If he's out, KSU can move the ball .....

KEY - I like the FOCUS and MOMENTUM for WMU here - better every year - this bowl is massive >> there is more work to be done.

2) KSU had a fantastic year - picked 11th in the sorry CUSA, finished 10-3, but faded down the stretch. This is their 2Y in FBS - fine HC's 1Y
>> their GOAL has been MET and SURPASSED ...... there is nothing left to do ...........theoretically.


$$ I like WMU here - playing a juiced 3 - will look to add live/2H - lean UNDER - might play 1H under 23'/24

>> IF WMU DE Tucker opts out - maybe hit the OVER immediately - if WMU is all in > KSU should get beat up
* note KSU QB is a (potential) opt out as well


$$ playing Memphis probably too .....

edit; I'll take a juiced 4 for Memphis small - and move on - NCST will likely have a ton of opt outs - Memphis might as well

NCST is a terrible bowl team - extremely overrated HC Doeren doesn't give af about bowls - he's lost the last 5 (1-4 ats)
>> Memphis loses their HC, which might be a good thing ha .....historically a great bowl team - I think they play hard here, and stay close in a high scoring game (lean over)
Click to expand...
Good day BA,

Any final write-up for Memphis - line +3.5 - ?
 
bravohenry10 said:
T



Good day BA,

Any final write-up for Memphis - line +3.5 - ?
Click to expand...
I’ll help ☝🏼
“”
<<<$$ playing Memphis probably too .....

edit; I'll take a juiced 4 for Memphis small - and move on - NCST will likely have a ton of opt outs - Memphis might as well

NCST is a terrible bowl team - extremely overrated HC Doeren doesn't give af about bowls - he's lost the last 5 (1-4 ats)
>> Memphis loses their HC, which might be a good thing ha .....historically a great bowl team - I think they play hard here, and stay close in a high scoring game (lean over)””>>
 
bravohenry10 said:
T



Good day BA,

Any final write-up for Memphis - line +3.5 - ?
Click to expand...

Too much variance buddy - too many possible opt outs, making stats meaningless....just a dart / fade of a shitty bowl coach in Dave Doeren (NCST) - and (guessing) Memphis rallies around the interim....?



Need to move on to Sat games..... don't think I'll do much
>> will probably play the Aggies at a juiced 3 (home crowd / fade Mario) - Ole Miss live/2H (Tulane buy back if necessary)- Ducks live/2H > hoping for a fast JMU start
 
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ANYBODY like me .....thinking damn, I can't wait to bet INDY, vs either of these 2.

Prepare to lay some points.

IF you like Bama/OU - maybe hit it early - if Indy, maybe wait

OU should be around 7 - if Bama finishes strong here, at least 3 I would think.
 
Wolfeman said:
These 2 QB’s are a disaster….
Click to expand...

BUTTONED UP

Well coached in all areas - don't make mistakes at key moments - false starts/dropped passes - dumb penalties, etc

It's what INDY does - these two do not. Hell, OU is trying to give this one away.

But I still don't know who is gonna win ha - I did add to Bama play.

>> BTW - looking to add the Aggs.....think I can get 2' late - 3 now at LV
 
Gonna add the Aggies as a one unit play.
>> 3 is available now - I'll wait overnight for a 2' - probably set my alarm for 3am to check ha

I would think it goes back and forth - juiced 2' to 3 - probably closes back at 3'. Usually I reserve my one unit bowl plays for teams that fit my Motivation Model - but since I won't have many it looks like - I'll use the Aggs here.

If I wake up in time, I'll have more - but I just think this will be too much for those choking Canes / Mario C. Not really a solid handicapping tool here, but I can't ignore how across coaching changes, Miami no- shows EVERY post season bowl. Their last THIRTEEN bowls, they've managed ONE win, in 2016 (2-11 ats). Under Mario they lost to Iowa St in 2024 (-3') - and to Rutgers by 7 in 2023 (+1).

On the road - they're just not very good:
* outgained at FSU 338 > 404 - FSU 28-14 FD edge, but 3 TO's
* lost by 6 at SMU
* struggled with 3-8 VT - scored with 27 sec left (passing TD) to win by 17 - Hokies 195 rushing/5.2
* did play well vs Pitt , but Pitt off GT upset, Irish beating week before that
* they are heavily penalized on the road (#134) - 9.8/ 82 yds - and TO prone - QB plays much better at home

What has drawn me into this one, is the widespread love for the Canes here - and all negative talk about A&M. The last time we saw Miami , they were destroying Pitt - Aggies (play-off lock) were jacking around with sorry Texas ha - they looked terrible. So those 2 teams are what we will see here? To me Aggies are the better team, plus HF edge in this game (play-off) might be 4+ - so line should be much higher probably.

I think the Aggies are healthier now, and return to the form we saw earlier in the year.
* COACHING
* incredibly loud stadium - Saban says fake crowd noise ha
* both teams can bring heat - edge to the mobile QB
* stronger running game (RB Moss is likely to return?)
* stronger pass rush (#1) / TFL (#2)

Miami put up big numbers on the ground vs weak D's, but struggled vs tougher:
* 2.6/rush vs Lou - 2.8 VT - 3.0 FSU - 3.6 Pitt - 3.5 ND
* on the road? - 3.4/rush - only 1 rushing TD in 4 games

So looks like to me it's all on that Carson Beck - who will make bad decisions when pressured (think DJ Lagway) - Canes can protect for sure (#5) - but I think that protection breaks down late - Aggie run game takes over

PROBLEMS :

* Miami has a huge ST edge (SP+ #13 to #81 )
>> despite this, Aggs leverage the field well (#11) - Miami #4
* Also they rank #12 in TO margin (+20/-11) .....Aggies #114 (-16 / +9) << yikes
* Cane D matches up well vs Aggie explosive plays > forcing Reed to be patient (create TO?)
* Miami run D is tough - Aggs might struggle to run, especially early
* despite rep - Aggies have only covered 4 of last 14 home games

EDIT: also Aggie OC Klein, is the new HC at Kansas State - meaning he's not 101% dialed in here - will this matter?, maybe not - just something to consider


IF the turnover / ST issues make you nervous - a smarter plan might be to wait for the game to start...
>> no shock if Canes start fast / Aggs struggle early -finish strong.....I'll probably save a bit and do that myself.

edit: -3 (-108) at Heritage
 
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LIVE play ....

You can get 1' now ..... ML should be available soon - maybe wait and see what happens on this Aggie drive? - I'll add ML/-1

EDIT; added ML at -106 at BM (bad line IMO)


LEAN 2H OVER .....looks windy, but only 10-12 mph

MIAMI - run O much better (7 > 16 TD)
run D same but 1 > 6 TD
AGGIES- run better (6.0/rush 3Q) 13 > 15 TD
D allowed 9 TD (4 1H)


Explosive plays?
* I use 10 yds rushing / 20 passing

PASS - Cane O #30 / Aggie D #55
Aggie O #25 / Cane D #20

RUN- Cane O #84 / Aggie D #77
Aggie O #29 / Cane D #20
 
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bookieassassin said:
LIVE play ....

You can get 1' now ..... ML should be available soon - maybe wait and see what happens on this Aggie drive? - I'll add ML/-1

EDIT; added ML at -106 at BM (bad line IMO)


LEAN 2H OVER .....looks windy, but only 10-12 mph

MIAMI - run O much better (7 > 16 TD)
run D same but 1 > 6 TD
AGGIES- run better (6.0/rush 3Q) 13 > 15 TD
D allowed 9 TD (4 1H)


Explosive plays?
* I use 10 yds rushing / 20 passing

PASS - Cane O #30 / Aggie D #55
Aggie O #25 / Cane D #20

RUN- Cane O #84 / Aggie D #77
Aggie O #29 / Cane D #20
Click to expand...
Thanks for the post!
 
Sorry boys, probably let my anti-Cane bias affect my judgement ha......
>> any time you can LIST 6 reasons to not make the play, including 2 KEY ones - then still make it a TOP play? = probably a moron
 
bookieassassin said:
Sorry boys, probably let my anti-Cane bias affect my judgement ha......
>> any time you can LIST 6 reasons to not make the play, including 2 KEY ones - then still make it a TOP play? = probably a moron
Click to expand...
The meth heads at C, box a dude for winning a few. Anyone to follow in hoops?
 
bookieassassin said:
Sorry boys, probably let my anti-Cane bias affect my judgement ha......
>> any time you can LIST 6 reasons to not make the play, including 2 KEY ones - then still make it a TOP play? = probably a moron
Click to expand...
Too many of those 50/50 penalties, dropped passes, etc went Canes way. I’d bet TAMU yet again if they were playing today. Right team, wrong result… nice looking final 8…Watching Moss walk off the field injured was a heart break…missed late hit on the sideline in front of Aggies bench had brutal timing. Just not their day as far as breaks.
I think Bama could be in deep kimchee bringing that sloppiness to the Cotton Bowl vs Bucks. Same with Coach Debour’s sloppy unorganized performance today… I don’t think they can fix all that and have a chance against this Buckeye defense and Patricia’s schemes. Hard to say underrated, but absolutely incredible job with this defense…that’s the reason I think Ohio State has the best chance at the Title… just my two cents, I got smoked today! 😂

Thanks for the hard work BA….
 
smaller at BM

Utah St +2

More later....talking Bronco/ Pig Farmer in a huge game for the program...

I think this is QB Barnes final game (Rose Bowl hero at Utah recall) - grad Sr
 
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IDAHO POTATO Bowl

Washington St -3
2:00 pm. ET -- ESPN
Utah St

W- 98-29-62
U- 51-92-117

TO margin - W - #114 (-7) ......U #39 (+4)
Explosives O - W- #128 .......U #24
D - #14 ........ #64
Sag SOS - W #67 ..... U #79
FEI SOS O - W #66 ....U #78
D - #64 ........Y #75
PACE - W #128 .... U #17
yards/pt margin - W #68 ..... U #50


1) Wazzu HC is gone for the 2nd straight year - DC is the interim - last bowl win 2018 (Leach) - LY they got crushed (half team missing) by CUSE and in 2022 by Fresno- 15 guys (will be) in the portal, BUT they have the option of playing - st RB and backup QB are out for sure
>> meanwhile Bronco is coaching in his 15th bowl (7-7/8-6). Their last bowl, was this one 2023 - lost to Ga St 45-22. Off a 4-8 in 2024 - this game is huge for the direction of the program. I really like they are led by grad Sr Bryson Barnes (PIG FARMER) playing his final game. Recall he stepped in for Rising at Utah (Rose Bowl '22-'23). Off a fine year 2687 passing / 733 rushing', only 4 INT. Their best WR won't play, and looks like st TE might miss due to injury - other than that they seem all in - any guys considering the portal are able to play here too.

2) MATCHUP

Wazzu - all D, very little O - weak rushing game, and average passing - OL is not very good (#121 run / #132 pass), but QB manages to avoid sacks - very little explosiveness as well. D IS TOUGH (SP+ #29) - tougher vs the run than the pass - they allow few explosives, and can bring heat (#15 sacks) < note USU OL # 129 (9.8% sacks)

Utah St - all O, little D - really weak OL (#96P / #105R) - heavy reliance on QB to make plays, tho he does hold the ball/take sacks (35). D is weak vs the run - stronger vs the pass - #77 rush explosives / #45 pass - note RZ D not bad #56

* I don't think the Wazzu O can take advantage of the weak Aggie D - Aggie O should struggle as well, but I trust Barnes to make the plays down the stretch -


Utah State seemed to be much improved after a BYE (following big losses to New Mexico, and Hawaii). Whipped Fresno on the road, played an even game at UNLV (lost in 2OT) - beat Nevada 51-14 - lost to Boise by 1. Wazzu was tough as hell - losing by 4 at JMU, by 2 at Virginia, by 3 at Ole Miss. BUT lost at Oregon State, got killed by NTX and Washington away - did whip SDSU and Toledo at home.
>>looks like a huge task for them to get up for this one, losing their CONFERENCE, then head coaches in back to back years.... what this tells me is that their PREP for this game will be absolute shit - plus who knows what players will show up to play- Bronco should have his guys dialed in / ready to go - a huge advantage, 15 bowls to zero....

$$ line at full strength would only be about Wazzu -3 - here IMO it should be Utah St -2' or so (may close there) - I see the total has dropped - but 48/49 still seems high - weather looks like mid 40's or so - light winds.

Utah State looks like a great play as a dog / ML here - smaller up to -2' maybe......strong lean UNDER - I like 1H better, off the long layoff.
 
bookieassassin said:
IDAHO POTATO Bowl

Washington St -3
2:00 pm. ET -- ESPN
Utah St

W- 98-29-62
U- 51-92-117

TO margin - W - #114 (-7) ......U #39 (+4)
Explosives O - W- #128 .......U #24
D - #14 ........ #64
Sag SOS - W #67 ..... U #79
FEI SOS O - W #66 ....U #78
D - #64 ........Y #75
PACE - W #128 .... U #17
yards/pt margin - W #68 ..... U #50


1) Wazzu HC is gone for the 2nd straight year - DC is the interim - last bowl win 2018 (Leach) - LY they got crushed (half team missing) by CUSE and in 2022 by Fresno- 15 guys (will be) in the portal, BUT they have the option of playing - st RB and backup QB are out for sure
>> meanwhile Bronco is coaching in his 15th bowl (7-7/8-6). Their last bowl, was this one 2023 - lost to Ga St 45-22. Off a 4-8 in 2024 - this game is huge for the direction of the program. I really like they are led by grad Sr Bryson Barnes (PIG FARMER) playing his final game. Recall he stepped in for Rising at Utah (Rose Bowl '22-'23). Off a fine year 2687 passing / 733 rushing', only 4 INT. Their best WR won't play, and looks like st TE might miss due to injury - other than that they seem all in - any guys considering the portal are able to play here too.

2) MATCHUP

Wazzu - all D, very little O - weak rushing game, and average passing - OL is not very good (#121 run / #132 pass), but QB manages to avoid sacks - very little explosiveness as well. D IS TOUGH (SP+ #29) - tougher vs the run than the pass - they allow few explosives, and can bring heat (#15 sacks) < note USU OL # 129 (9.8% sacks)

Utah St - all O, little D - really weak OL (#96P / #105R) - heavy reliance on QB to make plays, tho he does hold the ball/take sacks (35). D is weak vs the run - stronger vs the pass - #77 rush explosives / #45 pass - note RZ D not bad #56

* I don't think the Wazzu O can take advantage of the weak Aggie D - Aggie O should struggle as well, but I trust Barnes to make the plays down the stretch -


Utah State seemed to be much improved after a BYE (following big losses to New Mexico, and Hawaii). Whipped Fresno on the road, played an even game at UNLV (lost in 2OT) - beat Nevada 51-14 - lost to Boise by 1. Wazzu was tough as hell - losing by 4 at JMU, by 2 at Virginia, by 3 at Ole Miss. BUT lost at Oregon State, got killed by NTX and Washington away - did whip SDSU and Toledo at home.
>>looks like a huge task for them to get up for this one, losing their CONFERENCE, then head coaches in back to back years.... what this tells me is that their PREP for this game will be absolute shit - plus who knows what players will show up to play- Bronco should have his guys dialed in / ready to go - a huge advantage, 15 bowls to zero....

$$ line at full strength would only be about Wazzu -3 - here IMO it should be Utah St -2' or so (may close there) - I see the total has dropped - but 48/49 still seems high - weather looks like mid 40's or so - light winds.

Utah State looks like a great play as a dog / ML here - smaller up to -2' maybe......strong lean UNDER - I like 1H better, off the long layoff.
Click to expand...
Terrific analysis B.A.

Merry Christmas to you and yours !!
 
bookieassassin said:
IDAHO POTATO Bowl

Washington St -3
2:00 pm. ET -- ESPN
Utah St

W- 98-29-62
U- 51-92-117

TO margin - W - #114 (-7) ......U #39 (+4)
Explosives O - W- #128 .......U #24
D - #14 ........ #64
Sag SOS - W #67 ..... U #79
FEI SOS O - W #66 ....U #78
D - #64 ........Y #75
PACE - W #128 .... U #17
yards/pt margin - W #68 ..... U #50


1) Wazzu HC is gone for the 2nd straight year - DC is the interim - last bowl win 2018 (Leach) - LY they got crushed (half team missing) by CUSE and in 2022 by Fresno- 15 guys (will be) in the portal, BUT they have the option of playing - st RB and backup QB are out for sure
>> meanwhile Bronco is coaching in his 15th bowl (7-7/8-6). Their last bowl, was this one 2023 - lost to Ga St 45-22. Off a 4-8 in 2024 - this game is huge for the direction of the program. I really like they are led by grad Sr Bryson Barnes (PIG FARMER) playing his final game. Recall he stepped in for Rising at Utah (Rose Bowl '22-'23). Off a fine year 2687 passing / 733 rushing', only 4 INT. Their best WR won't play, and looks like st TE might miss due to injury - other than that they seem all in - any guys considering the portal are able to play here too.

2) MATCHUP

Wazzu - all D, very little O - weak rushing game, and average passing - OL is not very good (#121 run / #132 pass), but QB manages to avoid sacks - very little explosiveness as well. D IS TOUGH (SP+ #29) - tougher vs the run than the pass - they allow few explosives, and can bring heat (#15 sacks) < note USU OL # 129 (9.8% sacks)

Utah St - all O, little D - really weak OL (#96P / #105R) - heavy reliance on QB to make plays, tho he does hold the ball/take sacks (35). D is weak vs the run - stronger vs the pass - #77 rush explosives / #45 pass - note RZ D not bad #56

* I don't think the Wazzu O can take advantage of the weak Aggie D - Aggie O should struggle as well, but I trust Barnes to make the plays down the stretch -


Utah State seemed to be much improved after a BYE (following big losses to New Mexico, and Hawaii). Whipped Fresno on the road, played an even game at UNLV (lost in 2OT) - beat Nevada 51-14 - lost to Boise by 1. Wazzu was tough as hell - losing by 4 at JMU, by 2 at Virginia, by 3 at Ole Miss. BUT lost at Oregon State, got killed by NTX and Washington away - did whip SDSU and Toledo at home.
>>looks like a huge task for them to get up for this one, losing their CONFERENCE, then head coaches in back to back years.... what this tells me is that their PREP for this game will be absolute shit - plus who knows what players will show up to play- Bronco should have his guys dialed in / ready to go - a huge advantage, 15 bowls to zero....

$$ line at full strength would only be about Wazzu -3 - here IMO it should be Utah St -2' or so (may close there) - I see the total has dropped - but 48/49 still seems high - weather looks like mid 40's or so - light winds.

Utah State looks like a great play as a dog / ML here - smaller up to -2' maybe......strong lean UNDER - I like 1H better, off the long layoff.
Click to expand...
Line flipped! Utah St. now favored (up to -2 at BM) TY BA!
 
Tuesday, December 23rd
BOCA RATON Bowl

Toledo
2:00 pm. ET (grass)
Louisville -3
T- 73-19-103
L- 41-30-35

This one has to be Louisville or nothing probably....
>>7X bowl HC Brohm / Miller Moss vs interim named Weiner / 3rd string Fr QB - pick the winner > SU winner should cover
note: Brohm is 5-2/4-3 in bowls - they usually play well, even in lesser bowls (like this)


They do have COMMON OPPONENTS,

vs BG - Toledo lost 28-23 / UL won 40-17
vs Kentucky - Toledo lost 24-16 / UL won 41-0

Toledo has a 'great' D - but faced the nation's #135 schedule of opposing O's - now their DC and most of the players are gone. Louisville has guys out as well, but not as many as Toledo. Many of these guys were out vs Kentucky too (won 41-0 / Cats had maybe quit tho?)


$$ it's really hard to tell how Toledo will play here - they might be better off with the interim, than that idiot Jason Candle anyway - I wouldn't look for a huge effort, as LY they beat PITT 48-46, in 6 OT.... but how many guys show up for Louisville?

It's been a frustrating year for UL HC Brohm, and QB Miller Moss - given this long to prepare, I think he finds a way to move the ball here - total is low due to D strength of both teams - so I'll play small:

Louisville TT over 26'


others:
*short write-ups later unless I pass out ha

slight lean WKU
strong lean Ohio +7 / stronger lean OVER - Rebels will have a bitch of a time with Ohio QB/RB
 
I do feel like I have a read on Toledo and I don’t think this team can overcome any losses and be competitive. Line is higher now but I think UL wins by 2 scores.
 
bookieassassin said:
Tuesday, December 23rd
BOCA RATON Bowl

Toledo
2:00 pm. ET (grass)
Louisville -3
T- 73-19-103
L- 41-30-35

This one has to be Louisville or nothing probably....
>>7X bowl HC Brohm / Miller Moss vs interim named Weiner / 3rd string Fr QB - pick the winner > SU winner should cover
note: Brohm is 5-2/4-3 in bowls - they usually play well, even in lesser bowls (like this)


They do have COMMON OPPONENTS,

vs BG - Toledo lost 28-23 / UL won 40-17
vs Kentucky - Toledo lost 24-16 / UL won 41-0

Toledo has a 'great' D - but faced the nation's #135 schedule of opposing O's - now their DC and most of the players are gone. Louisville has guys out as well, but not as many as Toledo. Many of these guys were out vs Kentucky too (won 41-0 / Cats had maybe quit tho?)


$$ it's really hard to tell how Toledo will play here - they might be better off with the interim, than that idiot Jason Candle anyway - I wouldn't look for a huge effort, as LY they beat PITT 48-46, in 6 OT.... but how many guys show up for Louisville?

It's been a frustrating year for UL HC Brohm, and QB Miller Moss - given this long to prepare, I think he finds a way to move the ball here - total is low due to D strength of both teams - so I'll play small:

Louisville TT over 26'


others:
*short write-ups later unless I pass out ha

slight lean WKU
strong lean Ohio +7 / stronger lean OVER - Rebels will have a bitch of a time with Ohio QB/RB
Click to expand...
I like that TT small at that #.

Stalking that one.
 
Ohio +7 & O66 BA? Looking at the player props market, its hard to not like Navarro/Bangura & probably Hendricks.....on the other side, can the Bobcats stop Colandrea? He's thrown 23 tds vs 8 ints....and faced some decent defenses.....their running game is weak, but will they even need to pretend to run here? Both teams in the 30s? Ohio can chew some clock if they arent getting chunk plays.....

Thanks for all your thought BA!
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Ohio +7 & O66 BA? Looking at the player props market, its hard to not like Navarro/Bangura & probably Hendricks.....on the other side, can the Bobcats stop Colandrea? He's thrown 23 tds vs 8 ints....and faced some decent defenses.....their running game is weak, but will they even need to pretend to run here? Both teams in the 30s? Ohio can chew some clock if they arent getting chunk plays.....

Thanks for all your thought BA!
Click to expand...

There shouldn’t be a lot of stops in that one. Only worry with the total is if Ohio slows it down? I would have no idea if that’s even something they’d consider doing under this new coach.
 
NEW ORLEANS Bowl

WKU -6
5:30 pm. ET
Southern Miss
W- 58-80-24
S- 67-102-107

SM- VERY excited to make a bowl off 1-11 LY - but then HC leaves - 2022 beat Rice / 2019 lost to Tulane
>>good news (kinda sorta) is that wacky interim Blake Anderson has been named the new HC - he's the dude that will go for it on his own 10 - and the master of the dreaded Fainted Goat play.... >> player pretends to pass out as a distracton to the D

WKU - HC Helton takes the bowls seriously (4-2/3-3), and allows portal guys to play
>> LY lost to JMU - 2023 beat ODU as a dog - 2021-22 whipped App St and SA

pace- SM #11 - WKU #33

TO margin - SM #9 ... WKU #107

RZ O - SM #44 ... WKU #24
D - SM #117 ...WKU #3

NEITHER can run, but WKU has a terrible run D - #126 - 5.1/181

BOTH OL protect well, but SM can bring heat / create havoc - WKU not much
>> SM #1 with 21 INT / 26 sacks

$$ WKU looks like the safer choice - but I lean SMiss here - strong lean OVER
>> I'll look for a live play on the over, maybe SMiss live if they get down - Decent shot SMiss can run here / control the game
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Ohio +7 & O66 BA? Looking at the player props market, its hard to not like Navarro/Bangura & probably Hendricks.....on the other side, can the Bobcats stop Colandrea? He's thrown 23 tds vs 8 ints....and faced some decent defenses.....their running game is weak, but will they even need to pretend to run here? Both teams in the 30s? Ohio can chew some clock if they arent getting chunk plays.....

Thanks for all your thought BA!
Click to expand...

OVER seems like a good idea .....plus this one is INDOORS, at the sorry Cowboy's practice field - usual soccer field is under construction.
>> BUT both play slow - Ohio #109 in pace / UNLV #89

I think you should get a better number on the total live/2H - Ohio might start fast, 7 would be a strong lean for me....
>> btw, good point - interim HC was their DC - so he might go conservative with a lead - you bet

Happy Holidays buddy
 
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