GameHunter
Pretty much a regular
150th KENTUCKY DERBY
MAY 4, 2024
Not super confident I can keep my hot streak alive after giving the Breeders Cup Classic superfecta and Kentucky Oaks exacta out in my last two races I posted. However, here is my look at my top 9 contenders in order:
#17 FIERCENESS –His sheet numbers are light years ahead of the rest of this field. If he gets a smooth start and runs anything even close to what he ran in the Florida Derby, this won’t even be close. He was huge in last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile. Should be on or near the lead so traffic shouldn’t be a problem. Trainer, Todd Pletcher has not had great success in the Derby but this horse is just better than the competition. He will be very tough to beat.
Skeptics will note that when he hasn’t gotten a clean start, he can struggle like he did in the Holy Bull:
. Clearly the best horse in the Derby but the best horse doesn’t always win! Most likely winner but he will be the betting favorite.
#15 DOMESTIC PRODUCT – Throwing a longshot into the mix. He could be a bit of a reach. His figures aren’t near the top contenders but one can argue that it’s because the early pace of many of his races was extremely slow yet he was still able to close ground against the frontrunners. He won the Tampa Bay Derby sitting 5th in one of the slowest early pace races I have ever seen gearing up for the Derby and was in traffic but closed stoutly between horses. He was able to get up for 2nd in the Holy Bull beating Fierceness in another slow paced race to close into. He’s flying well below the radar but is a very nice live longshot if things break his way.
#11 FOREVER YOUNG – Japanese horse is 5-5 lifetime. First time in US. Prone to outside trips. Solid sheet numbers. Improving in his 3 year old year. Traveled 4 wide to win both the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby. Horses coming from the UAE Derby are 0-19 in the Derby with no one finishing better than 5th but this is possibly the best of them all. Trainer has said the horse doesn’t like the kickback of dirt flying in his face and track may still be somewhat loose with kickback. Lots to like but there are concerns. This Japanese trainer shipped 2 horses to Breeders Cup and both won.
Saudi Derby:
UAE Derby - FOREVER YOUNG sets up Kentucky Derby tilt with UAE Derby glor
#8 JUST A TOUCH – Unraced as a two year old with only 3 career starts. Son of Triple Crown winning Justify, tried two turns for the first time last out in the Bluegrass and was a game front running 2nd in some fast fractions. Could argue he was better than winner, Sierra Leone, that day. Has tactical speed and solid sheet numbers.
#2 SIERRA LEONE – Winner of 3 of 4 and should like the distance. Deep closer, who will need to avoid traffic. Chad Brown has not flourished at the Derby. Won the Risen Star at the Fairgrounds closing into a slow pace. Got a great setup in the Bluegrass to win. Solid sheet numbers and Beyer figures. If he avoids traffic ad gets a clean trip, he will be hard charging at the end and is a serious contender. Sierra Leone Wins the 2024 Toyota Blue Grass (G1)
#6 JUST STEEL – Heavily race, making his 12th start already. DeWayne Lucas trainee (Lukas has been sharp lately) must avoid a wide trip as he has had wide trips in the Southwest (2nd), Rebel (7th) and his best race yet, a 2nd place in the Arkansas Derby. Does have some early tactical speed. Distance could be a slight concern but could be in the mix here with a good trip.
Others to consider for bottom of ticket #7 HONOR MARIE, #4 CATCHING FREEDOM and #3 MYSTIK DAN
MAY 4, 2024
Not super confident I can keep my hot streak alive after giving the Breeders Cup Classic superfecta and Kentucky Oaks exacta out in my last two races I posted. However, here is my look at my top 9 contenders in order:
#17 FIERCENESS –His sheet numbers are light years ahead of the rest of this field. If he gets a smooth start and runs anything even close to what he ran in the Florida Derby, this won’t even be close. He was huge in last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile. Should be on or near the lead so traffic shouldn’t be a problem. Trainer, Todd Pletcher has not had great success in the Derby but this horse is just better than the competition. He will be very tough to beat.
#15 DOMESTIC PRODUCT – Throwing a longshot into the mix. He could be a bit of a reach. His figures aren’t near the top contenders but one can argue that it’s because the early pace of many of his races was extremely slow yet he was still able to close ground against the frontrunners. He won the Tampa Bay Derby sitting 5th in one of the slowest early pace races I have ever seen gearing up for the Derby and was in traffic but closed stoutly between horses. He was able to get up for 2nd in the Holy Bull beating Fierceness in another slow paced race to close into. He’s flying well below the radar but is a very nice live longshot if things break his way.
#11 FOREVER YOUNG – Japanese horse is 5-5 lifetime. First time in US. Prone to outside trips. Solid sheet numbers. Improving in his 3 year old year. Traveled 4 wide to win both the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby. Horses coming from the UAE Derby are 0-19 in the Derby with no one finishing better than 5th but this is possibly the best of them all. Trainer has said the horse doesn’t like the kickback of dirt flying in his face and track may still be somewhat loose with kickback. Lots to like but there are concerns. This Japanese trainer shipped 2 horses to Breeders Cup and both won.
Saudi Derby:
UAE Derby - FOREVER YOUNG sets up Kentucky Derby tilt with UAE Derby glor
#8 JUST A TOUCH – Unraced as a two year old with only 3 career starts. Son of Triple Crown winning Justify, tried two turns for the first time last out in the Bluegrass and was a game front running 2nd in some fast fractions. Could argue he was better than winner, Sierra Leone, that day. Has tactical speed and solid sheet numbers.
#2 SIERRA LEONE – Winner of 3 of 4 and should like the distance. Deep closer, who will need to avoid traffic. Chad Brown has not flourished at the Derby. Won the Risen Star at the Fairgrounds closing into a slow pace. Got a great setup in the Bluegrass to win. Solid sheet numbers and Beyer figures. If he avoids traffic ad gets a clean trip, he will be hard charging at the end and is a serious contender. Sierra Leone Wins the 2024 Toyota Blue Grass (G1)
#6 JUST STEEL – Heavily race, making his 12th start already. DeWayne Lucas trainee (Lukas has been sharp lately) must avoid a wide trip as he has had wide trips in the Southwest (2nd), Rebel (7th) and his best race yet, a 2nd place in the Arkansas Derby. Does have some early tactical speed. Distance could be a slight concern but could be in the mix here with a good trip.
Others to consider for bottom of ticket #7 HONOR MARIE, #4 CATCHING FREEDOM and #3 MYSTIK DAN
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