******2022 NHL Playoffs IN GAME & Discussion******
- Thread starter Teapot9
- Start date
Teapot9
Not from 63rd
More like Calgary vs Colorado
Zeke
Big Dick and Average Size Boat
Anyone with any series bets yet?
Carolina -115 vs a team they have beat 16-1 in their three matchups stood out to me but I won't bet against my B's.
Florida -1.5 -135 looks tempting as hell as does anything NYR as I'm surprised to see them dogged.
I may just sit out & wait for any sweep possibilities then implement the chase if it losses.
Carolina -115 vs a team they have beat 16-1 in their three matchups stood out to me but I won't bet against my B's.
Florida -1.5 -135 looks tempting as hell as does anything NYR as I'm surprised to see them dogged.
I may just sit out & wait for any sweep possibilities then implement the chase if it losses.
Teapot9
Not from 63rd
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Nhl gets a lot wrong, but they nailed the scheduling so far
Monday to Friday next week all 4 games each day
4
430
630
7
Same times every day
Saturday and sunday both quadruple headers 1st game at 9 or 10, last start at 7
Monday to Friday next week all 4 games each day
4
430
630
7
Same times every day
Saturday and sunday both quadruple headers 1st game at 9 or 10, last start at 7
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Haven't played any yet, gonna look more today but early leans would be
Carolina++
St. Louis+
Toronto+++
Edmonton+++++
Pittsburgh++
Florida++++
Calgary+++++++++
Colorado+++++++++
+ = initial confidence level
Flames/Avs to both win series is -180
Juicy but those are two biggest mismatches, outside an injury to mackinnon/rants and gaudreau/lindholm I'd be stunned if either lost. If NHL had a play in set up like NBA does, I doubt dallas and nashville woulda held their spots. throw in Edmonton to that parlay and it gets to +120
Wild v blues is a toss up imo. Lean blues based on special teams 2nd best pp of playoff teams behind toronto, wild are worst pk of playoff teams. Wild were -10 goals on special teams, Blues were +30
East are all pretty even, I dont think the caps win the series but +310 they are begging for caps money
Panthers are a wagon but the gap also isnt that huge to the caps, florida had 42 regulation wins, which is behind carolina, toronto, rangers, and only a few more than the other eastern conference playoff teams. They won 16 times in OT/SO, including going 13-2 in the 3 on 3 ot. Wont be anymore 3 on 3 played until october. I'll probably chase a caps game win in that series to game 3 if needed.
Bruins have quietly been one of best teams in league since January, Carolina just has so much depth down the lineup. Aho and Svech are probably the two most overlooked superstars in the league, Slavin may be most underrated d man.
Line matching will be interesting to watch, Boston has split Pasta and Bergeron a bit this season at times. They could match Bergeron and the McAvoy pairing against canes top line to try and free up Pasta, or they may just say fuck it and roll out their best 5 man unit and dare RBA to match it. Was hoping Bruins would be lined higher so game lines had value but doesnt look like they will early in series.
Carolina++
St. Louis+
Toronto+++
Edmonton+++++
Pittsburgh++
Florida++++
Calgary+++++++++
Colorado+++++++++
+ = initial confidence level
Flames/Avs to both win series is -180
Juicy but those are two biggest mismatches, outside an injury to mackinnon/rants and gaudreau/lindholm I'd be stunned if either lost. If NHL had a play in set up like NBA does, I doubt dallas and nashville woulda held their spots. throw in Edmonton to that parlay and it gets to +120
Wild v blues is a toss up imo. Lean blues based on special teams 2nd best pp of playoff teams behind toronto, wild are worst pk of playoff teams. Wild were -10 goals on special teams, Blues were +30
East are all pretty even, I dont think the caps win the series but +310 they are begging for caps money
Panthers are a wagon but the gap also isnt that huge to the caps, florida had 42 regulation wins, which is behind carolina, toronto, rangers, and only a few more than the other eastern conference playoff teams. They won 16 times in OT/SO, including going 13-2 in the 3 on 3 ot. Wont be anymore 3 on 3 played until october. I'll probably chase a caps game win in that series to game 3 if needed.
Bruins have quietly been one of best teams in league since January, Carolina just has so much depth down the lineup. Aho and Svech are probably the two most overlooked superstars in the league, Slavin may be most underrated d man.
Line matching will be interesting to watch, Boston has split Pasta and Bergeron a bit this season at times. They could match Bergeron and the McAvoy pairing against canes top line to try and free up Pasta, or they may just say fuck it and roll out their best 5 man unit and dare RBA to match it. Was hoping Bruins would be lined higher so game lines had value but doesnt look like they will early in series.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Oilers since the coaching change are a completely different team as well
Numbers on far left are league rank under tippett, far right since the switch to woodcroft
The key one to me is the one 2nd from bottom. They've made slight improvements everywhere, but huge change in high danger corsi %. With the finishing they have up front, if they are anywhere over 50% on that, they are going to be so hard to beat.
As it stands I'd have them over Calgary slightly in a potential BoA next round, Avs slight over both of them in a west final
Numbers on far left are league rank under tippett, far right since the switch to woodcroft
The key one to me is the one 2nd from bottom. They've made slight improvements everywhere, but huge change in high danger corsi %. With the finishing they have up front, if they are anywhere over 50% on that, they are going to be so hard to beat.
As it stands I'd have them over Calgary slightly in a potential BoA next round, Avs slight over both of them in a west final
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Leafs lightning is probably most exciting series. Matthews is the best player in the world right now. Hes going to see a ton of Hedman the next 2 weeks. Leafs need Tavares and Nylander to win their matchup.
Goaltending could swing things here, Vasilevski is THE number 1 playoff goalie until proven otherwise based on last 2 years, Campbell has been so up and down this year. Leafs also need to come out hot in game 1, crowd will turn quickly if they think it's a repeat of the last 60 years of playoff failure
Goaltending could swing things here, Vasilevski is THE number 1 playoff goalie until proven otherwise based on last 2 years, Campbell has been so up and down this year. Leafs also need to come out hot in game 1, crowd will turn quickly if they think it's a repeat of the last 60 years of playoff failure
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
My hot takes, and I definitely watch way more eastern conference hockey....
I only played the Rangers, no way they should be a dog vs. the Pens. They match up well, and were coming in hot down the stretch. Lot of youth on the team, sure, but Jarry is hurt, Pens are old, just nothing concerns me about this matchup for the good guys.
Carolina should beat Boston, but should doesn't mean shit. Anderson is also hurt in goal, and Boston's been getting healthy and they are one of those teams that are really annoying to play against come playoff time. Ice seems to shrink up, and not as much room to wheel and deal. I do think Carolina is better top to bottom and should prevail in the end, but this is a hard pass for me.
Panthers were great all year at home, and as they have home ice advantage, that will definitely be an advantage. They routinely put up 40, 45, 50 sog at home and play with a lot of confidence. They are also a very deep team on offense, but Ekblad is far and away their best defenseman and even if he plays in the series, doubt he's at 100%, so they are not without faults. Caps are another team that are annoying to play against in the playoffs, and I'm glad the Rangers avoided them in round 1. They like to hit, have a lot of very good two way players and are solid enough on defense. But, Ovie may not be at 100%. Caps are definitely a better all around team when Oshie is playing and at full health, but I don't think they have enough to overcome the Panthers, but no way am I laying that juice with the Panthers either. Maybe a Panthers in 5 prop wager or a -1.5 but if I do play it would be very small.
Leafs/Lightning is going to be a fantastic series. Defense and goaltending wins playoff series and tough to argue that TB doesn't have the best of it in the league, tbh. But, Toronto may also have the best top 6 offensively in the league, have the best goal scorer in the league and on the pp, they probably have the best 5 guys in the league on the ice at one time (although Edmonton's power play does look more lethal at times). Leafs haven't totally given up on defending either. I think this series will come down to special teams, and whichever team is able to execute better will advance. I would rather see the Leafs advance because I think the NHL is better when Toronto is in it, but they are under such tremendous pressure and let's face it, Tavares is an absolute bitch. Lightning advance here in 7.
West to me looks pretty straight forward
Avs are way better than the Preds, but if Saros is healthy, they will hang around a bit. And the Predators have a ton of guys that are going to try to stir shit up. PRetty sure they lead the league in fighting majors this year. If Saros is hurt, this one is Avs in 4 or 5, but I think the Predators could be sneaky annoying here if they play the instigator role correctly. No one really liked going up against teams with Dale Hunter types, or Chris Neals, or Dustin Browns, hell there are dozens of guys like that.
Blues vs Wild on paper looks the closest, but honestly, Blues have owned the Wild. Blues really hit a spurt there near the end of the year where they were putting up like 4+ goals per game, and even though they don't have the marquee name goalie, the guys they have get it done. If the Blues continue getting this type of offense up and down their lineup, I think the Blues win handily in 5 or 6. I haven't played them yet, but this is my second best sport in the first round.
Calgary is going to crush the Stars, I can't even believe the Stars made the playoffs. Calgary can play a tight grinding game, they can score, they can defend, really a team that is seemingly made for the playoffs and I'm glad their in the west. This one could be the most lopsided series of them all, could be a sweep.
Oilers/Kings I think will be the best series in the west. As mentioned above, the Oilers coaching changes has them playing night and day better and really they can control games pretty well. And of course, if you take a penalty against this team, your dead. Kings though are a pretty sneaky decent team. They have agitators, they have goal scorers, they have good defensemen and they have a goalie that can win a series for you. Who doesn't want to see McDavid and Draisatl advance, of course everyone loves seeing these guys play - well except whomever is going against them. I honestly see no reason why the Kings can't win this series. This would be my upset special of the first round.
I only played the Rangers, no way they should be a dog vs. the Pens. They match up well, and were coming in hot down the stretch. Lot of youth on the team, sure, but Jarry is hurt, Pens are old, just nothing concerns me about this matchup for the good guys.
Carolina should beat Boston, but should doesn't mean shit. Anderson is also hurt in goal, and Boston's been getting healthy and they are one of those teams that are really annoying to play against come playoff time. Ice seems to shrink up, and not as much room to wheel and deal. I do think Carolina is better top to bottom and should prevail in the end, but this is a hard pass for me.
Panthers were great all year at home, and as they have home ice advantage, that will definitely be an advantage. They routinely put up 40, 45, 50 sog at home and play with a lot of confidence. They are also a very deep team on offense, but Ekblad is far and away their best defenseman and even if he plays in the series, doubt he's at 100%, so they are not without faults. Caps are another team that are annoying to play against in the playoffs, and I'm glad the Rangers avoided them in round 1. They like to hit, have a lot of very good two way players and are solid enough on defense. But, Ovie may not be at 100%. Caps are definitely a better all around team when Oshie is playing and at full health, but I don't think they have enough to overcome the Panthers, but no way am I laying that juice with the Panthers either. Maybe a Panthers in 5 prop wager or a -1.5 but if I do play it would be very small.
Leafs/Lightning is going to be a fantastic series. Defense and goaltending wins playoff series and tough to argue that TB doesn't have the best of it in the league, tbh. But, Toronto may also have the best top 6 offensively in the league, have the best goal scorer in the league and on the pp, they probably have the best 5 guys in the league on the ice at one time (although Edmonton's power play does look more lethal at times). Leafs haven't totally given up on defending either. I think this series will come down to special teams, and whichever team is able to execute better will advance. I would rather see the Leafs advance because I think the NHL is better when Toronto is in it, but they are under such tremendous pressure and let's face it, Tavares is an absolute bitch. Lightning advance here in 7.
West to me looks pretty straight forward
Avs are way better than the Preds, but if Saros is healthy, they will hang around a bit. And the Predators have a ton of guys that are going to try to stir shit up. PRetty sure they lead the league in fighting majors this year. If Saros is hurt, this one is Avs in 4 or 5, but I think the Predators could be sneaky annoying here if they play the instigator role correctly. No one really liked going up against teams with Dale Hunter types, or Chris Neals, or Dustin Browns, hell there are dozens of guys like that.
Blues vs Wild on paper looks the closest, but honestly, Blues have owned the Wild. Blues really hit a spurt there near the end of the year where they were putting up like 4+ goals per game, and even though they don't have the marquee name goalie, the guys they have get it done. If the Blues continue getting this type of offense up and down their lineup, I think the Blues win handily in 5 or 6. I haven't played them yet, but this is my second best sport in the first round.
Calgary is going to crush the Stars, I can't even believe the Stars made the playoffs. Calgary can play a tight grinding game, they can score, they can defend, really a team that is seemingly made for the playoffs and I'm glad their in the west. This one could be the most lopsided series of them all, could be a sweep.
Oilers/Kings I think will be the best series in the west. As mentioned above, the Oilers coaching changes has them playing night and day better and really they can control games pretty well. And of course, if you take a penalty against this team, your dead. Kings though are a pretty sneaky decent team. They have agitators, they have goal scorers, they have good defensemen and they have a goalie that can win a series for you. Who doesn't want to see McDavid and Draisatl advance, of course everyone loves seeing these guys play - well except whomever is going against them. I honestly see no reason why the Kings can't win this series. This would be my upset special of the first round.
Teapot9
Not from 63rd
I think blues and wild is a toss up personally
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Agree. Hence give me the plus money on road team. When series switches to stl I’ll play minny if they dogs.
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
I’ll be on Edmonton, Tampa, StL, and maybe Carolina for series
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
Any of you familiar with or play the “Lippmann Split” from over at blankets? Has been pretty productive over the years
Teapot9
Not from 63rd
Teapot9
Not from 63rd
My granddaddy been playing that since 1971 at Quan’s Oasis in Berwyn, IL
Teapot9
Not from 63rd
I like 2 of those…. Edmonton makes me nervous…. LA been playing with purpose
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Pretty sure Col and Fla win, solid take with the boost and just look elsewhere for a Kings saver wager is how I'd do it
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
I played St Louis last night at +140 to win series.
Also, I saw Carolina is now -110 most likely due to Anderson injury. That is now a play as this is a big over reaction. Carolina led the league in goals against, and Ranta is certainly capable. I know they kinda limped down the stretch losing to teams like Buffalo and Islanders earlier this month, but they won their last 6, only lost 8 games at home all year and now are a pickem. Boston certainly good enough, I'll go with the better team all year though.
Rangers -105
Blues +140
Carolina -110
*official plays
Also, I saw Carolina is now -110 most likely due to Anderson injury. That is now a play as this is a big over reaction. Carolina led the league in goals against, and Ranta is certainly capable. I know they kinda limped down the stretch losing to teams like Buffalo and Islanders earlier this month, but they won their last 6, only lost 8 games at home all year and now are a pickem. Boston certainly good enough, I'll go with the better team all year though.
Rangers -105
Blues +140
Carolina -110
*official plays
Zeke
Big Dick and Average Size Boat
Early season to win the cup I assume?
Teapot9
Not from 63rd
Right before the regular season started
chipnotized
Bigger Slapper Than Al MacInnis
I always enjoy Uncle Louie's stuff come playoff time:
The Passion of Playoff Puck
“From the goal out”
Welcome puckheads to the 2022 Stanley Cup Tournament, regarded as the greatest tournament in the history of sport at least by me.
This year I’ll review MY “From the goal out” philosophy of playoff passion which is something many of you following GambLou.com or VSiN have read and understood for years now. I’ll follow that up with what most hockey handicappers ignore which is the bracket setup for this dynamic Tourney…. it’s unimaginable how many professed puck pundits overlook discussion of the brackets in their breakdown of this tournament.
Finally, some closing comments before we delve into the actual releases….
---------------------------------------------
Tonight, sixteen NHL hockey teams begin competing in the greatest tournament in Sport, for the most coveted championship trophy in Sport, Lord Stanley’s Cup. Over four decades, I’ve been fortunate enough to attend numerous Championship sporting events but the vibe, electricity, anticipation and ferocity present in any arena for a Stanley Cup Playoff hockey game (let alone a Stanley Cup Final game) is unrivaled.
I hold a passion and respect for playoff hockey, its culture and most especially its participants. What these young players prepare for, undergo and endure in their single-minded determination to clasp the Stanley Cup after completing an 82-game regular season is physically and mentally astounding. These capable competitors vying for the Cup this year (and each year) are +/- 202 pounds of pure determination, grit, gristle, team commitment and mean spiritedness.
Each of the 16 teams vying for their lifetime chance to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup hold a singularity of purpose and an unrelenting determination to fulfill their lifelong dream. Nightly for ten weeks each coach, player and team display championship mettle, sportsmanship, toughness and tenacity in their attempt to capture the Stanley Cup and become part of Sports history.
Philosophy of: ‘From the goal out’
Foundational in uncovering betting value/market advantage in the Stanley Cup Playoffs next to a keen understanding of the numbers is determining each team strength’s and how they executed their last twenty games or so approaching this most outstanding Tournament.
Effectively handicapping/assessing each team’s goaltender(s) and defense is the single most important handicap to Playoff hockey to me. The physical/mental condition of each man and platoon as they enter this grueling quest for the Cup is mandatory.
In playoff hockey a hot goaltender can dominate the playoff season and single handedly carry a club to the Cup. More importantly, a hot ‘Minder IS infectious and their incredible play often elevates the team as a whole.
It’s my position that the true contending teams to hoist the Cup prioritize themselves in this order, the Minder, team defense, special teams then scoring…in that order….and yest I proclaim this in May of 2022.
Foundational to my handicapping the Stanley Cup Tournament is the belief that true Stanley Cup contenders play hockey ‘from the goal out’ as alluded to above. Any team worthy of investment must have a world class net minder(s) between the pipes (by the numbers and by the mentality) insulated by a platoon of dynamic defensemen capable of snuffing shots and limiting scoring chances. If the defensively dominant team I select can also score a few goals, then it’s considered a bonus as scoring means little in my approach to determining passion profits.
No team’s clasp the Cup by outscoring their opponents rather NHL Stanley Cup Champions hoist because they have effectively executed hockey ‘from the goal out’ throughout the whole of the Tournament. Sure, there are instances of teams like the recent 16/17 Penguins teams that have displayed great offense but without that young netminder Murray between the pipes
Bracket
Teams compete their way through the Wales (Eastern) and Campbell (Western) Conference brackets with each victor earning the right to vie for the Stanley Cup. The bracket format and most especially the match-ups (current and potential) are critical in helping formulate series, conference and Cup considerations.
One MUST scrutinize the brackets comprehensively as I do. Next, I recommend one work on analyzing the data/statistics from the eighty-two-game regular season for the basis of one’s Playoff positions. I use that research together with my decades long historical perspective on this tourney laced with a sprinkle of old fashioned ‘gut feel’ to arrive at my releases.
they would be but a footnote today as opposed to multi time Champions.
Selections
In honing the sixteen playoff teams down to a profitable few I immediately eliminate teams with less than a world-class net minder and/or a blue line that plays putrid/porous/passionless defense.
Handicapping goaltending, defense, special team’s then offense from the data I extract from the eighty-two-game season provides me with the weaponry to produce profits in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
I’ll publish Futures, series and daily positions on the 'Hockey' tab found at the top of this webpage each day but they may not be up until 15 to 30 minutes before they drop the puck….
Questions then hit me up twitter @GambLou or lou@gamblou.com
Keep those elbows up
The Passion of Playoff Puck
“From the goal out”
Welcome puckheads to the 2022 Stanley Cup Tournament, regarded as the greatest tournament in the history of sport at least by me.
This year I’ll review MY “From the goal out” philosophy of playoff passion which is something many of you following GambLou.com or VSiN have read and understood for years now. I’ll follow that up with what most hockey handicappers ignore which is the bracket setup for this dynamic Tourney…. it’s unimaginable how many professed puck pundits overlook discussion of the brackets in their breakdown of this tournament.
Finally, some closing comments before we delve into the actual releases….
---------------------------------------------
Tonight, sixteen NHL hockey teams begin competing in the greatest tournament in Sport, for the most coveted championship trophy in Sport, Lord Stanley’s Cup. Over four decades, I’ve been fortunate enough to attend numerous Championship sporting events but the vibe, electricity, anticipation and ferocity present in any arena for a Stanley Cup Playoff hockey game (let alone a Stanley Cup Final game) is unrivaled.
I hold a passion and respect for playoff hockey, its culture and most especially its participants. What these young players prepare for, undergo and endure in their single-minded determination to clasp the Stanley Cup after completing an 82-game regular season is physically and mentally astounding. These capable competitors vying for the Cup this year (and each year) are +/- 202 pounds of pure determination, grit, gristle, team commitment and mean spiritedness.
Each of the 16 teams vying for their lifetime chance to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup hold a singularity of purpose and an unrelenting determination to fulfill their lifelong dream. Nightly for ten weeks each coach, player and team display championship mettle, sportsmanship, toughness and tenacity in their attempt to capture the Stanley Cup and become part of Sports history.
Philosophy of: ‘From the goal out’
Foundational in uncovering betting value/market advantage in the Stanley Cup Playoffs next to a keen understanding of the numbers is determining each team strength’s and how they executed their last twenty games or so approaching this most outstanding Tournament.
Effectively handicapping/assessing each team’s goaltender(s) and defense is the single most important handicap to Playoff hockey to me. The physical/mental condition of each man and platoon as they enter this grueling quest for the Cup is mandatory.
In playoff hockey a hot goaltender can dominate the playoff season and single handedly carry a club to the Cup. More importantly, a hot ‘Minder IS infectious and their incredible play often elevates the team as a whole.
It’s my position that the true contending teams to hoist the Cup prioritize themselves in this order, the Minder, team defense, special teams then scoring…in that order….and yest I proclaim this in May of 2022.
Foundational to my handicapping the Stanley Cup Tournament is the belief that true Stanley Cup contenders play hockey ‘from the goal out’ as alluded to above. Any team worthy of investment must have a world class net minder(s) between the pipes (by the numbers and by the mentality) insulated by a platoon of dynamic defensemen capable of snuffing shots and limiting scoring chances. If the defensively dominant team I select can also score a few goals, then it’s considered a bonus as scoring means little in my approach to determining passion profits.
No team’s clasp the Cup by outscoring their opponents rather NHL Stanley Cup Champions hoist because they have effectively executed hockey ‘from the goal out’ throughout the whole of the Tournament. Sure, there are instances of teams like the recent 16/17 Penguins teams that have displayed great offense but without that young netminder Murray between the pipes
Bracket
Teams compete their way through the Wales (Eastern) and Campbell (Western) Conference brackets with each victor earning the right to vie for the Stanley Cup. The bracket format and most especially the match-ups (current and potential) are critical in helping formulate series, conference and Cup considerations.
One MUST scrutinize the brackets comprehensively as I do. Next, I recommend one work on analyzing the data/statistics from the eighty-two-game regular season for the basis of one’s Playoff positions. I use that research together with my decades long historical perspective on this tourney laced with a sprinkle of old fashioned ‘gut feel’ to arrive at my releases.
they would be but a footnote today as opposed to multi time Champions.
Selections
In honing the sixteen playoff teams down to a profitable few I immediately eliminate teams with less than a world-class net minder and/or a blue line that plays putrid/porous/passionless defense.
Handicapping goaltending, defense, special team’s then offense from the data I extract from the eighty-two-game season provides me with the weaponry to produce profits in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
I’ll publish Futures, series and daily positions on the 'Hockey' tab found at the top of this webpage each day but they may not be up until 15 to 30 minutes before they drop the puck….
Questions then hit me up twitter @GambLou or lou@gamblou.com
Keep those elbows up
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Hall and Oates!
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Huge save by vasilevski on breakaway at end of period
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Teapot9
Not from 63rd
Pretty lame the Argos don’t get the same love the Laffs get
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Seeing people complain online the audio is a second ahead in the toronto game too
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Canes up 2-0 into 3rd
34-1-3 when leading after 2
34-1-3 when leading after 2
