GameHunter
Pretty much a regular
Many different people will read this from sophisticated horse aficionados to some who watch one race per year. For the casual fans, please understand in a race like this, the best horse doesn’t always win. There are so many factors to consider like pace of the race, trip, positioning, traffic, track condition, distance and many others. Think about a mile and a quarter human race and put yourself in it. Let’s say you had the lead after a half mile and had been setting a slow, casual pace up to that point. You’d still have a lot of “gas left in the tank” and it would be difficult for the others at the back to gain ground late. Conversely, if you had the lead after a half mile yet had been facing all sorts of competition and had to fight to fend everyone off early on, you might already be on “fumes”, which would set the race up for other runners at the back of the pack. That sums up a lot about horse racing right there. Now, when handicapping a race, the key it not necessarily to pick the most likely horse to win the race, rather to find the best value. The key may be to find a horse that may not be the most likely to win, but based upon his much higher odds, offers the best value. Simply put, let’s say there was a three horse race and I told you #1 would win 50% of the time, #2 will win 30% of the time and #3 will win 20% of the time. Who would you pick to win? If you answered the question already, you are getting left back to repeat this course. You don’t have enough information. The key to betting on horse racing is VALUE and you would need to know more about the odds to ascertain where the value is. Now, let me add in the odds in this fictitious horse race, #1 is 1:2 odds, #2 is 2-1 odds and #3 is 6 to 1. So, if we run this race 100 times, and you bet $2 to win on each, #1 would be a losing proposition (-$50) winning 50% of the time, #2 would be a losing proposition (-$20) winning 30% of the time and #3 would be a winning proposition (+$40) winning 20% of the time. So the best value would be #3 despite the fact that he is the least likely to win.
GameHunter wouldn't be GameHunter without making this point. I love horses. They are beautiful animals. Unfortunately there has been a black cloud looming over the industry lately particularly at Santa Anita where numerous horses have broken down since December. There are many beautiful aspects of this sport yet there are many evils, another of which focuses on tracks such as those in Louisiana where underperforming horses on many occasions end up in kill pens (and the Racing Commission often turns a blind eye) being shipped out of the country to slaughter. It breaks my heart. This preview took close to 10 hours to put together and I could easily charge money for it. I don't (I never do). I just ask that if you win today, or even if you don't, please consider making a donation to a horse cause or an animal rescue in general and make a difference!
Use my guide to help you handicap. Look at some the replays I posted and formulate your own opinion. You don’t necessarily have to follow mine. I will play many different combinations with my top horses but for the casual better, use this guide to fall in love with one of the Derby entrants and enjoy the most exciting two minutes in sports.
2019 KENTUCKY DERBY
#1 WAR OF WILL – Trainer Mark Casse said, "If he's more than four or five behind going into the first turn, we're in trouble," The reason why is no horse has won the Derby from the rail since 1986 and in a field of 20, if you don’t get away quickly, you get buried in a wave of traffic. Won the Risen Star (G2)
and Lecomte (G3) but suffered his first dirt loss in the Louisiana Derby, where he was ninth an awkward start. No Kentucky Derby winner since 1940 has finished worse than 5th in their final prep, although he did have an excuse coming out of the gate awkwardly with his butt almost hitting the ground. He had already qualified for the Derby prior to the flop in Louisiana and some say they were trying a different style to prep him for the Derby. Got his maiden victory in November on a sloppy track here at Churchill Downs. Was one of the perceived favorites in the Derby before flopping in the Louisiana Derby. Has some recent eye-popping workouts. If he avoids early trouble, he’s not out of the question at all.
# 2 TAX – Won the Withers (G3)
after stumbling early then getting a cushy trip behind the leaders and squeezed through on the rail to win it. I don’t feel it was overly impressive but he backed up that effort with a clear second in the Wood Memorial chasing a hot pace but was beaten by Tacitus, who had a much rougher trip. Not in love with him but has a chance to get a paycheck.
#3 BY MY STANDARDS –Won the Louisiana Derby at 22-1 with a super cushy trip right behind the leaders.
Speed figure was good, with final furlong a quick 12 2/5. No horse has received as much buzz during the morning training sessions at Churchill Downs than this son of Goldencents who hadn't even won a race until February. He’s certainly getting better but looks a bit below the top horses here. Paycheck is not out of the question but I won’t be using except for maybe the bottom of a saver ticket.
#4 GRAY MAGICIAN - UAE Derby runner-up looked an unlikely Derby candidate before stepping up that night. His only win in 8 tries was at a mile in November at Del Mar, and his speed figures are mediocre. He has yet to win a stakes race and his Beyer numbers haven't been impressive. But Gray Magician has kept good company (he was within five lengths of Improbable and Alwaysmining), and ran arguably a better race in the UAE Derby than winner Plus Que Parfait. He adds first time Lasix today which is always an interesting angle but a small paycheck would be his ceiling.
#5 IMPROBABLE - A bit immature and a troublemaker. "He can be a little bit feisty," Baffert said. "He's got a bigger engine on him, he gets excited a bit, but that's just him.” He's certainly shown he has talent, but he acted up in the gate with blinkers on in the Arkansas Derby. Baffert is taking the blinkers back off for this race. Improbable is owned and trained by the same connections as 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify. He'll likely be up near the pace. Romped in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1)
but truth be told, it was just a 6 horse field, he was 1:5 odds and 3 of the horses ran into trouble on the first turn. He was a runner-up in the Rebel (G2) going 4 wide on both turns and runner-up in the Arkansas Derby (on a sloppy track). Serious buzz about him lessened after those two close seconds and his stamina may be a concern after seeing him caught late by Long Range Toddy and failing to overtake Omaha Beach. Sire, City Zip not known for fathering distance types, although Improbable’s dam is Belmont winner A.P. Indy (and has great lineage beyond that), who liked distance. The key is his manners before the race starts and whether or not he is fractious and expends energy. He’s a real “X” factor and still has to be seriously considered.
#6 VEKOMA - More has been made by how this horse runs, his left front leg resembles an egg beater, than how fast he gallops. His victory last year in the Nashua Stakes
was one of the fastest by a two-year-old, and he's coming off a win in the Blue Grass Stakes where he exploited a strong speed bias to cruise by 3 1/2 lengths in a so-so Blue Grass, whose winner hasn’t taken the Derby since 1991. Watch the video above of his Nashua win and watch him run through the stretch. It’s like watching an egg beater and he drifts in and out yet still galloped out strongly. His early speed should have him near or on the lead on Saturday, a style that has won the last five Kentucky Derbies but his speed figures don’t seem to measure up to the top horses in here; however he can’t be completely discounted, as he has the best 2 year old figure of any of these, achieved in his second start. Will be on or near the lead. I probably won’t use but it’s tough to completely toss him.
#7 MAXIMUM SECURITY - Anyone could've bought him for $16,000 last year. His wire-to-wire win in the Florida Derby https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldL7skghYGY
was aided by him setting a slow early pace, which certainly won’t be the case here. Speedy colt is 4-for-4, winning by a collective by 37 3/4 lengths, so how can you knock him? I don’t think he’s good enough but he does have a hot trainer in Jason Servis. Should be on the lead as far as he can go but the distance is a big question mark. A cheap claiming horse less than a year ago would make a wonderful Disney-like movie but tough to see him wiring this field. Has a shot but I’m inclined not to use him much.
#8 TACITUS - Regally bred (his sire is Tapit, and his dam is Grade 1 winner Close Hatches), Tacitus has won both of his races this year by coming from off of the pace. In his most recent start, the Wood Memorial, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tl6sphb_0Tk he was bumped and clipped and still rallied to win and galloped out extremely well, which bodes well in a race that often turns into a 20-horse rodeo (well maybe 19). Watch him before and into the first turn (#2) in the Wood and he really gets jostled twice and responded extremely well. Hall of Famer Mott is 0-for-8 and has never been in the money in the Derby, but this colt represents his best chance ever. Strong distance pedigree, has a nice mid-pack runner running style has strong late-pace figures. Seems very likely to enjoy the long 1 1/4 mile distance, and you count on Ortiz to deliver a smart ride. Strong contender.
GameHunter wouldn't be GameHunter without making this point. I love horses. They are beautiful animals. Unfortunately there has been a black cloud looming over the industry lately particularly at Santa Anita where numerous horses have broken down since December. There are many beautiful aspects of this sport yet there are many evils, another of which focuses on tracks such as those in Louisiana where underperforming horses on many occasions end up in kill pens (and the Racing Commission often turns a blind eye) being shipped out of the country to slaughter. It breaks my heart. This preview took close to 10 hours to put together and I could easily charge money for it. I don't (I never do). I just ask that if you win today, or even if you don't, please consider making a donation to a horse cause or an animal rescue in general and make a difference!
Use my guide to help you handicap. Look at some the replays I posted and formulate your own opinion. You don’t necessarily have to follow mine. I will play many different combinations with my top horses but for the casual better, use this guide to fall in love with one of the Derby entrants and enjoy the most exciting two minutes in sports.
2019 KENTUCKY DERBY
#1 WAR OF WILL – Trainer Mark Casse said, "If he's more than four or five behind going into the first turn, we're in trouble," The reason why is no horse has won the Derby from the rail since 1986 and in a field of 20, if you don’t get away quickly, you get buried in a wave of traffic. Won the Risen Star (G2)
# 2 TAX – Won the Withers (G3)
#3 BY MY STANDARDS –Won the Louisiana Derby at 22-1 with a super cushy trip right behind the leaders.
#4 GRAY MAGICIAN - UAE Derby runner-up looked an unlikely Derby candidate before stepping up that night. His only win in 8 tries was at a mile in November at Del Mar, and his speed figures are mediocre. He has yet to win a stakes race and his Beyer numbers haven't been impressive. But Gray Magician has kept good company (he was within five lengths of Improbable and Alwaysmining), and ran arguably a better race in the UAE Derby than winner Plus Que Parfait. He adds first time Lasix today which is always an interesting angle but a small paycheck would be his ceiling.
#5 IMPROBABLE - A bit immature and a troublemaker. "He can be a little bit feisty," Baffert said. "He's got a bigger engine on him, he gets excited a bit, but that's just him.” He's certainly shown he has talent, but he acted up in the gate with blinkers on in the Arkansas Derby. Baffert is taking the blinkers back off for this race. Improbable is owned and trained by the same connections as 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify. He'll likely be up near the pace. Romped in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1)
#6 VEKOMA - More has been made by how this horse runs, his left front leg resembles an egg beater, than how fast he gallops. His victory last year in the Nashua Stakes
#7 MAXIMUM SECURITY - Anyone could've bought him for $16,000 last year. His wire-to-wire win in the Florida Derby https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldL7skghYGY
was aided by him setting a slow early pace, which certainly won’t be the case here. Speedy colt is 4-for-4, winning by a collective by 37 3/4 lengths, so how can you knock him? I don’t think he’s good enough but he does have a hot trainer in Jason Servis. Should be on the lead as far as he can go but the distance is a big question mark. A cheap claiming horse less than a year ago would make a wonderful Disney-like movie but tough to see him wiring this field. Has a shot but I’m inclined not to use him much.
#8 TACITUS - Regally bred (his sire is Tapit, and his dam is Grade 1 winner Close Hatches), Tacitus has won both of his races this year by coming from off of the pace. In his most recent start, the Wood Memorial, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tl6sphb_0Tk he was bumped and clipped and still rallied to win and galloped out extremely well, which bodes well in a race that often turns into a 20-horse rodeo (well maybe 19). Watch him before and into the first turn (#2) in the Wood and he really gets jostled twice and responded extremely well. Hall of Famer Mott is 0-for-8 and has never been in the money in the Derby, but this colt represents his best chance ever. Strong distance pedigree, has a nice mid-pack runner running style has strong late-pace figures. Seems very likely to enjoy the long 1 1/4 mile distance, and you count on Ortiz to deliver a smart ride. Strong contender.
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