2017 Survivor Discussion

Switched my pick from ATL to SEA last week. Thank God.

Have to use the Steelers, I guess. My pool has gone from 69 to 33.
 
Second straight season I lost picking Atlanta. At least this year wasn't as gut-wrenching as last year
 
BUF, OAK, GB, SEA used. PIT or PHI this week. Leaning Philly, for some reason I could see Jax taking out Pitt. Numbers don't back it up but that game scares me.
 
Whelp, Indy it is. I think many will be on Pitt and Eagles and this is the kind of game that Pitt could easily drop(I'm a fan and I've seen it before).
 
That hurts man. I was actually on the correct side of a last minute change, Pitt to Philly. Taking Denver this week. It was them or Houston.
 
BUF, OAK, GB, SEA, PHI used. Lot of choices this week DEN, WAS, NE, ATL, HOU, even TEN. Future value of NE, DEN, ATL too much to use them up with so many other options. Frankly the Jets scare me this week against NE so NE stays in the future to be used when a tough week comes about and they get their shit together which will happen. HOU has some pretty good future value with three very winnable home games on the horizon. TEN not so much but not thrilled to have my season hanging by a thread if TEN QB goes down again. DEN the most probable winner of this bunch with the Jints coming to town but I think I'm holding them back in favor of WAS. Off a bye with SF going east off a couple OT games and 3rd roadie in a row this one fits the way I like to play. SF has been frisky I won't deny but this is a horrible spot for them. Good luck this week.
 
actually, Denver's future value is fairly low until week 14 with a home game against the Jets. I went with the Donkey's this week as one pool is down to 4 people (from 20) and one down to 17 (from 54).
 
Skins gave us WAS backers a scare but ultimately prevailed. We had 8 left out of 40 before ATL took out 2 and DEN took out 2 more. Down to four. No clue this week. Been trying to save the PATS for a spot like this in the schedule but as a fan I don't trust them a whole lot at this stage of the game. PIT, MIN, TEN on the short list for now. Was hoping to be able to use DAL at SF but with no Elliot and a very frisky 49er squad I'll probably pass on that action.
 
This week is gonna be tough. Lots of road teams which is never a safe play in the NFL. Pittsburgh if you got em I guess but how can you trust that teams? Bengals are also a team like the giants in what they did to Denver, if they show up, they can beat you anywhere.

Titans, saints, and giants are on my list as road teams. But will likely end up taking Minny and praying.

Another blood bath in our league after last week. We are now down to 48 from 2000. The good news about that is I don’t have to worry too much about saving teams for later. No way we make it to the Playoffs
 
babyneedshoes said:
Skins gave us WAS backers a scare but ultimately prevailed. We had 8 left out of 40 before ATL took out 2 and DEN took out 2 more. Down to four. No clue this week. Been trying to save the PATS for a spot like this in the schedule but as a fan I don't trust them a whole lot at this stage of the game. PIT, MIN, TEN on the short list for now. Was hoping to be able to use DAL at SF but with no Elliot and a very frisky 49er squad I'll probably pass on that action.
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Zeke had another TRO enabled...he may be playing
 
twinkie13 said:
Minny?

How you guys feel about that?
Click to expand...

Probably as good a pick as any but as a life-long fan of the Vikes I know they fuck me when I count on them to win, ALL THE TIME. This is a tough week for sure. I've used Buff already so they are out. Fading Cleveland has been a reliable strategy over the past couple years, I may fall back on that.
 
Hakan's Picks said:
Week 7 - Buffalo Bills
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Like it, used them week 1 but I like them this week.

I’ve diverted from Dallas and now am using Seattle. Fading the gigantes. Darkwa has to beat me cause that secondary on rest for Seattle should be primed ( we thought Denver would eat them alive too lol)
 
I am debating between Minnesota and Dallas. I don't trust either team, and Dallas is on the road, but those seem like the best options. SF has kept every game close so that is a little disconcerting but the ravens are just one of those weird teams that I can see having a great game. Dallas also off a bye with Elliot still playing. Also doesn't look like I would use Dallas any other time this year. Thought about the bills but yikes that is a tough one.

Read somewhere this morning (think ESPN survivor article) that this is the first time since the 80's that all spreads have been 6 or lower. Tough week
 
On MIN this week. Not real thrilled with it but didn't like much else. Three left as one guy had KC (that must have sucked big time watching that one live, like groundhog day) and two guys have TEN. A MIN/CLE parlay takes the pool.
 
Damn, could have cut the pool in half again if Cleveland could play football. Hoping Dallas rolls for me so I don’t have to sweat
 
I'd stay away from KC. Division rival, primetime game, weird things happen. They have easier home games later this season.

Philly is obviously a good option if you still have them. They have Chicago in a couple weeks which would be another time to take them but other than that don't really have too many other opportunities for them. I would be taking them if I had them but I don't.

This year is stranger than most due to all the upsets so participant counts are lower than they normally are this time of year. Which means (at least to me) that you should be placing less emphasis on future value on more value on just taking the best option to survive and advance. Unfortunately, its really hard not to look ahead to see what the future schedules are and who you may want to be taking in a few weeks.

So for the rest of the season the following are projected spreads of 7 or higher each week (or the highest spread if there is not a 7 or above):

Week 8: Philly v SF; Cincy v Indy; NE v LAC; NO v Chicago; KC v Denver; Minny @ Cleveland (London game)
Week 9: Houston v. Indy (only one over 7, next bests would be NO v TB and Sea v Wash)
Week 10: Pitt @ Indy; Detroit v Cleveland
Week 11: nobody currently over seven, next bests are KC @ NYG, NE v Oakland; Pit v Ten, Den v. Cincy; NO v Wash
Week12: Phi v Chicago; Cincy v Cleveland, NE v Miami, KC v Buffalo; Sea @ SF; ATL v. Tampa
Week 13: KC @ NYJ; LAC v Cleveland; Jax v. Indy
Week 14: NE @ Miami; Cincy v. Chicago; KC v. Oak, Pit v. Bal, Buff v. Indy, Hou v SF, Den v NYJ
Week 15: NO v NYJ; KC v LAC; Detroit v. Chicago
Week 16: NE v Buffalo; KC v. Miami
Week 17: NE v NYJ; Minny v. Chicago, Sea v Zona, Pit v. Cleveland, LAR v. SF

Hopefully that helps some map out the remaining season if that is your thing. I tend to do it in small amounts, like I won't be taking NO this week because week 15 looks like slim pickens and they will be the best option that week.

I am deciding between Minny and Cincy this week. I don't like messing with London, but that usually tends to favor the favorite. In the other three London games this year, the Saints crushed, the Jags crushed, and the Rams crushed. Looking ahead I only see them in Week 17 as another good option. Not sure the league makes it until then. Cincy is home vs. what I think may be the worst team in the league (they only have two wins because they got the other two really bad teams at home). Problem with using them is they are going to likely be the biggest favorite in Week 12 and I would like to have them at that time. But that is also the problem of looking too far ahead.

So, still deciding, but for me its either Minny or Cincy, but I would take Philly if I had them available.
 
5 people left in my pool, 2 of which have used philly. Will likely lose Philly but Peters loss isn't as bad as I think it is
 
Ended up going with Minny, and forgot about the early London starts so went to church and brunch and was very happy to see an easy victory when I got home. Looking at play by play it looks like I would have been biting my nails for a while.

Rest of the league is on pats, bengals, eagles, saints, and falcons, with most on bengals and eagles.

So go chargers, colts, niners, bears, and jets. Though this just feels like one of those weeks where no one gets eliminated
 
Already to picking two? That seems early to switch to that.

This week seems pretty simple. Houston should roll. Eagles shouldn't have a problem either. Tampa Bay seems to be in a tailspin right now so NO should be safe as well. Seattle is a heavy favorite but I don't trust that team and Washington is one of those teams that I don't like to bet against because when they are firing on all cylinders they are tough to stop. Hard to gauge their performance from last game as the weather was obviously an issue. Seattle always a tough place to play but I don't trust the seahawks. One of the best teams capable of laying the biggest eggs in the NFL.

Houston, Philly, NO best options. Jax is a decent option but I have the same feeling on Cincy as I do on Washington. not a great team but when they are clicking its hard to beat them. Jax has had some great games this year but some ugly ones. but they are a decent option at home off the bye.
 
Jayhawk Nation said:
Already to picking two? That seems early to switch to that.

This week seems pretty simple. Houston should roll. Eagles shouldn't have a problem either. Tampa Bay seems to be in a tailspin right now so NO should be safe as well. Seattle is a heavy favorite but I don't trust that team and Washington is one of those teams that I don't like to bet against because when they are firing on all cylinders they are tough to stop. Hard to gauge their performance from last game as the weather was obviously an issue. Seattle always a tough place to play but I don't trust the seahawks. One of the best teams capable of laying the biggest eggs in the NFL.

Houston, Philly, NO best options. Jax is a decent option but I have the same feeling on Cincy as I do on Washington. not a great team but when they are clicking its hard to beat them. Jax has had some great games this year but some ugly ones. but they are a decent option at home off the bye.
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lotta people in this thing...winner gets 7k

not simple lol...HOU used Eagles too and NO and SEA

Buff and LA I think....

Jesus what teams did you use for like 8 weeks lol?
 
twinkie13 said:
lotta people in this thing...winner gets 7k

not simple lol...HOU used Eagles too and NO and SEA

Buff and LA I think....

Jesus what teams did you use for like 8 weeks lol?
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Mines 40g to the winner. 2000 down to 44.

I’ve used (not in this order) pitt, philly, wash, oak, gb, minny, sea, dallas

I’ve got myself mapped out the rest of the year. Not deviating from my plan unless weird shit happens.

Houston for me

In your situation I’d use Jax and Ten if you’ve got em. I avoid road teams like the plague if possible
 
BUF, OAK, GB, SEA, PHI, WAS, MIN, CIN used. HOU for me this week. No interest in NO, JAX, or TEN for a variety of reasons. NO division game, JAX hosts unpredictable CIN and last I checked Bortles is still in the league, and TEN might just suck. HOU rolls at home.
 
Deshaun Watson torn ACL. Make sure to adjust your picks gents. Not sure Tom Savage is who you want to base your survivor picks on.
 
Deshaun Watson injury really throws a wrinkle into things. There is now another team for people to fade, reducing the likelihood of eliminations.

Think my pool had some idiots that don't pay attention, or still thought it would not matter, as we lost 7 on Houston. Lost 4 on Buffalo, and 2 on Seattle. Now sitting at 31 survivors out of our starting 2000.

Was always planning on selecting Detroit this week and I don't think I will waiver. But does have me concerned with Cleveland off the bye, due for a win, and if the trend holds they are due for another 3 point game (all season has been 3 point loss-blowout-3 point loss). Detroit is fully capable of dicking around and losing that game.

Other contenders are the Rams, who get the Watson-less Texans at home. I personally was saving the Rams for Week 17, as they will still likely be playing for something and get SF at home. I don't have Pittsburg or I would certainly be taking them at home off the bye, even on the road against the Colts. I also don't think NE will struggle against Denver, even on the road, after their bye. Don't know the numbers but I have to think Bill and Tom are quite good with an extra week to prep. Carolina is an interesting choice. Home against the dolphins with a very inflated spread. Miami was still competitive last week despite trading Ajayi. The Panthers would be very hard to back with their offensive struggles, but hard to ignore that matchup as the dolphins struggle against good defensive teams. I had not planned on selecting Carolina at any other point this year, and they likely won't be this big a fav again except for maybe Tampa in week 15. Could be a selection I make to be contrarian as I think my pool gets at least 20 out of 31 on Detroit.
 
BUF, OAK, GB, SEA, PHI, WAS, MIN, CIN, JAX used. Short list is DET, RAMS, CAR. Don't trust the Steelers and NE always struggles in DEN. Both of them have downstream value so not going that route. Leaning RAMS pretty heavily. They have four tough ones right in front of them and should have no trouble with the Savage led HOU squad. Boy was he a mess on Sunday. DET looks like a solid play but like you said CLE off a bye and short week for DET. Would still consider them strongly if RAMS weren't available to me. I don't trust Scam and his boys at all. Wrote this to a buddy who is considering CAR and wanted my take.

To answer your question the numbers certainly favor Carolina against Miami but MIA is 4-4 and Scam is still the QB for the panthers. Atlanta played like shit but still had a real shot in the 4th in Carolina. Miami has some excellent skill position players as does Carolina so that's pretty much a wash but Miami just retooled their running game by dumping Ajayi and going with Drake/Williams tag team. Carolina running game is spotty. Traditional formations they don't produce much from so they use trickery to get the ball to McCaffrey. Stewart looks washed up and was being booo'd every time he touched the ball which can't be good. And of course Scam can run with the best of them. If Gase has half a brain he spies on McCaffrey and Scam all day and make them move the ball through the air. Both defenses and kickers are reliable for the most part so that's a wash. AFC v NFC not sure if that means anything these days. No major injuries this week but you always have to keep an eye on that shit. The Monday Night Football factor is always a consideration when capping a game.
 
Good points about Carolina. I just think Miami will struggle against their defense and Cam & co. can do enough to stay out in front. I am definitely more concerned with surviving and advancing at this stage so may look elsewhere. Lions and that situation scares me. Rams look easy but that scares me as well. For as good as they have looked, I still can't get that near loss to the 49ers out of my head. Was on the road, but they still looked ugly and I would take Savage's Houston team over the 49ers.

Still some thinking to do, I am locked onto to Detroit right now but by no means my final decision. Wish I had Pittsburg.
 
BUF, OAK, GB, SEA, PHI, WAS, MIN, CIN, JAX, LAR used. KC at the top of the list for me. NE and PIT are in the mix this week and next (if I get that far).
 
Ended up using Detroit last week, like 23 out of 31 did, so still alive. Pool lost no one so still sitting at 31.

Top of my list this week is NE followed closely by KC. I think both win easily this week, though I don't trust my own chiefs on the road. Just a matter of time before the Giants play like they are supposed to and its not an easy place to play on the road. I definitely don't want any part of Jacksonville.

I am basically capping Week 14 at the same time as this week, as NE and KC will be the top two options that week as well. NE @Miami that week and KC at home vs da Raiders. Looking at it that way, I think I would prefer to have NE this week and KC that week. KC won't be losing twice to the raiders and will look to take out some frustration on them. Not a true road game for NE this week as it is for them in week 14 either.

I am mildly entertaining the Chargers this week if Rivers is a go.
 
I'm in the same boat as you Jayhawk. We lost nobody last week and have 25 entries left.
NE scares me a little this week for some reason. I think I will be using KC but your reservations stall me for going ahead and picking KC.
Who else other than those 2
I run the league I'm in and so far I have had PITT, Jax, Den & KC picked so far
 
ProV1Colt said:
I'm in the same boat as you Jayhawk. We lost nobody last week and have 25 entries left.
NE scares me a little this week for some reason. I think I will be using KC but your reservations stall me for going ahead and picking KC.
Who else other than those 2
I run the league I'm in and so far I have had PITT, Jax, Den & KC picked so far
Click to expand...

I just try as a general rule not to pick road teams unless I have to. So NE not being a true road game is fine to me. wouldn’t touch Denver. Chargers are interesting as is Minnesota.
 
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