2017 KJ Wimbledon

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I'll take it a step further and say that if it stays under, I really think that's because Radwanska lulls Timea to boredom and wins in straights. Going to add the handicap just in case...I have a hard time seeing that match be a Bacsinszky rout. Only real concern is that the grass courts are playing faster than norm.

82230 Radwanska +3 -112 2*
 
Kerber and laying that price is not at all comfortable, it's perceived value which I *think* the number is way off. If she loses to Shelby Rogers, I'll take the loss and roll my eyes like anyone would. Really was at a point where I wanted to fade her in week 2 but if it plays out as expected, that number is still low.

That said, I'll likely be against her next round in some fashion.
 
Even if she comes back and wins I deserve to lose laying that kind of number on any of these helpless gals
 
Jesus Mugu should crush Angie if she plays anything like she did today.

80327 Donaldson/Thiem o34.5 -110
 
Glad I slept through the first set and a half honestly, even when she was winning it was uninspiring to say the least. Which leads me to Monday...

Garbine at this number against the number one player in the world? I think it's still plenty low. Apparently I missed the opener at -125, bummer.

7/10

Muguruza ML -147 3*



 
Some real quality bed shitting from Kontaveit and Gulbis late this morning, was thinking this was gonna be one helluva day then the 2nd sets occurred
 
Ugh end of the day sucked

80309 Anderson ML -129 3*
30309 Anderson/Querrey o44 -115
80305 A Zverev +1.5 -130 3*
80305 A Zverev ML +109
80315 Federer/Dmitrov u36.5 -115 3*
82206 Coco ML -143 3*
82202 Rybarikova -276 2*
82204 Aga +3 -102 4*
82204 Aga ML +153
 
82235 V Williams ML -186 4*

I can't find a reason this isn't closer to -400 other than the car drama, this is a pretty unequal match...that said I've been fading Konjuh with poor results. Really didn't think I'd be on Venus much here but the tournament seems to be keeping her in good shape, starting to think she's got a match or two run here. It opened close to -200 and I don't think it gets much lower than this. Great number for a player that wins this match 8/10 times imo, and no reason at this point to doubt the mentality. She's all there.
 
Yeah I was hoping Roger would be more ruthless, he basically said in interview he felt he had such a margin that he tried a few things in the 1st week and yesterday in anticipation of harder matches :hang:Anyway, I still love Roger. Tomorrow could be tricky he said Dimitrov played better and better each time they have face off but he also expect to play better than yesterday. Let's hope he wins it in 3.

I like all your plays, good luck to us then :cheers3:
 
Not a big fan of anything on Wednesday, might add something there but it would probably be nothing more than a couple set bets. Only thing worth a stab to me is this total atm.

7/12

80321 Cilic/Muller o41 -111 2*

7/13

82201 Konta ML -115 2*
82201 Konta/V Williams o22.5 -106
 
Sorry, not buying this somehow beautiful form that Byrdich is on. He's been great, no doubt, but he's still a couple large steps behind the greatest. Gonna bet this goes quick.

80305 Berdych/Federer u36 -109
 
Love that Cilic/Querrey over.

Like that Federer under as well. If he maintains the same level should be 3 sets. And I'm sure Fed will be wary of the threat because he did lose vs Berdych at Wimbledon and US Open, close match this year at IW or Miami. But if he plays with variation and with his current level should be no problem. Maybe one close set just like vs Raonic and if there is one let's hope he wins the tiebreak again
 
Thanks, these chick matches were complete duds today even though Mugu gets into the finals. Kinda expected a bit more, then got a dose of reality. Brutal reality. Yeah, I think that Cilic/Querrey match could be great and that Fed should roll, hope it doesn't go the other way. Cilic and Querrey both don't see Center Court often, hell Byrdich doesn't either, think that played a factor in those plays.

I think Roger wins this tournament pretty easily at this point, going to focus a bit more on that Cilic/Querrey match at this point and may add to the over and probably take Same to at least win a set, maybe two.
 
I didn't watch the women today so it looks like I didn't miss anything! Did you take a Muguruza future a few days ago? If so, will you hedge in the final? Seems Venus is playing really well. I will watch the final should be a good match I hope.

As a Federer fanatic, I hope you're right! I have to say I'm a little scared of Cilic I still have nightmares of that semi final at the US Open where Cilic dismantled Fed. And I haven't really seen Cilic played this tournament so I don't know if he can really trouble this Federer. Just looked, Cilic-Querrey played 3 times on grass, Cilic won all 3 matches but all 3 were won in the deciding set so good chance that we have 4 or 5 sets tomorrow.

By the way I was just being nice on twitter, the guy is a huge Berdych fan and everytime his guy plays a big player in Slams he tries to believe he has a chance, and everytime Berdych fails...! Like the other day when people told him he had no chance vs Djoko, so that was good that he was right for once because it must suck to be a Berdych fan...!
 
Bigger than normal play on Cilic/Querrey over, going with small plays on Querrey +4 and +269 I have a feeling it will be very close and Querrey can do it as long as it's not the Cilic of his US Open win. I might be wrong but we will see
 
I think Querrey can keep in there, most will point to the two recent 5 setters but to me the serve/volley game doesn't expend near the energy of some of these matches. I like him to make a match out of it, and can't discount Cilic going for Wimby final. There will be nerves. Should be great stuff.
 
803034 Querrey +2.5 sets -220 3*
803032 Querrey +1.5 sets +125 2*
18011 Querrey most aces -160
18111 Federer most aces -180 2*
18116 Berdych/Fed no tiebreaker in match +200
 
80304 Querrey o20.5 -115 4*

Fed over released at 16 and it would obviously get canceled, idiots. I really wouldn't take anything over 19 (in which case my no tiebreaker would lose at 19 anyway since I think it's straights) but yeah. At 20, which is what it should be, no thanks. They have Birdshit at 20 lol.
 
Never reckoned my largest side in this tournament would be Sam Querrey but here we are, I just think he has a shot to keep this thing very close, keep it interesting, blah blah blah...It's a 5am tee time here so going to try to make it up to watch. Really, it could see several errors from either/or and that can shake all those wagers up, but I prefer the underdog in that situation obviously. Not even really a Querrey fan but go 'Merica!

Roger should deal, honestly my concern is that he jacks around and loses a set against what has proven to be lesser competition over the years, trying shit out, etc...it's one of those deals that he could "struggle" I guess then kill the final but I can't see him get into position at any point to feel like he's losing. But we've seen that shit before in all sports, a little nervous at how favored he is to just breeze to the trophy.

GL all, hope not to get my ass kicked :beer4:
 
7/15

82206 Muguruza ML -120 4*
82206 Muguruza -1.5 +101
82206 Muguruza o12.5 -130 1.5*
82205 Venus/Mugu o23 -114

If Venus beats her in straights, it sucks and I take it on the chin. We all know they could make Venus the favorite for a ton of reasons, but the reason that Garbine is favored is because she's been on the stage too, is obv way younger and has the chops. It could be a great match, but I really don't think Venus can play any better than the semis (I didn't see Mugu play but by the score, guessing you could say the same about her too). Point is, at this age, Venus needs to be spot on for another entire match, and against a better opponent (imo). I'm betting against that. Bring it home Garbine!
 
Preface this by saying I don't watch doubles at all but just spent enough time looking at the last couple rounds and I'm fine playing this, just a unit each because that's all it's worth to me...I think all dogs are live at this point. Only playing the women semis now, but if neither hit, I'm fine doubling up on the dog in the men's final on Sat (both teams went 5 in the semis, one ended 17-15!). Stronger opinion on the 2nd of these two but I just don't watch, it's simply results oriented and keeping in the fairway.

7/14

82302 Ninomiya/Voracova ML +260
82303 Groenefeld/Peschke ML +275
 
Trying to figure out how to play Roger in straight sets, this number works for me. Prop for 3-0 is -115 and Rog -2.5 is -113, so going this route. Compared to those numbers, this is value unless they go to TBs three times...

80306 Federer u20 +100 2*
 
Should be a great final on Sunday

early price


[TABLE="class: odds-data, width: 750"]
<tbody ng-repeat="event in events = (league.events | filter: linesDataExists)" ng-class-even="'even'" class="ng-scope">[TR="class: {'last':$last}"]
[TD="class: game-name name, bgcolor: transparent"]Marin Cilic[/TD]
[TD="class: oddTip game-moneyline, bgcolor: #ECECEC, align: center"]+454[/TD]
[TD="class: oddTip game-handicap, bgcolor: #ECECEC, align: center"]+5.5
-111​
[/TD]
[TD="class: game-total oddTip ng-scope, bgcolor: #ECECEC, align: center"]Over 38
-106
[/TD]
[TD="class: game-total oddTip ng-scope, bgcolor: #ECECEC, align: center"]Under 38
-104
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: {'last':$last}"]
[TD="class: game-name name, bgcolor: transparent"]Roger Federer[/TD]
[TD="class: oddTip game-moneyline, bgcolor: #ECECEC, align: center"]-503[/TD]
[TD="class: oddTip game-handicap, bgcolor: #ECECEC, align: center"]-5.5
+103​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: divider ng-scope"]
[TD="colspan: 6, align: center"] [/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


I like Roger to win and want him to win but honestly at this price Cilic is interesting...
 
REALLY WANTED birdman and he had opportunities in both 1st n 2nd set as im sitting wit ha 32-1 tkt on cilic.. fed is way over valued which i knew... just sucks i have to lay these kinda odds on a hedge
 
Yeah I was impressed with Berdych he played offensive, all 3 sets could have turned in his favor Fed was just better and more solid when he had to.

I might play Cilic ML i think Fed should not be higher than -250/300, and if Fed win I'll be happy anyway

What do you think KJ?
 
fed was -333 last yr on no form and cilic took em to 5.. -400 when he lost to cilic at the us open so the fact he opened -500 is def way over priced..... fed at this stage of career is prone to some pockets of bad play he had it today but i knew birdshit had no hope in the TB hope cilic can hold nerve and serve big... gonna need some DF from roger like today... but def big time value on cilic +450
 
Yes I agree with you Noles. I felt Fed was a little less inspired today compared to the Dimitrov and Raonic matches, with several DFs and the forehand not as good, I hope he will manage to correct these for Sunday because if not Cilic will really trouble him.

Speaking as a RF fan, I'm still confident that he will win but I fear Cilic for sure. Probably going to play Cilic ML for the value and might play Fed not to win 3-0 and the over, we will see when pinnacle has the propositions
 
Sorry, had to get some sleep but before the semis Fed was -300 to win the tournament, so the lines I'm guessing will reflect that. I don't have a line on the final yet available to me.

And losing both doubles matches, which I knew was a possibility, going to double up on the dog tomorrow. Will be on the dog in the women's final as well.

80402 Marach/Pavic ML +190 2*
 
-535 is cheap imo, it should be higher

Looking at under, how will Cilic break Fed? Let alone more than once..
 
Sorry for the anti Fed guys but this is gonna be a clinic imo...of course I could eat crow, Cilic has looked great but he's on a free pass. This will be short work I think, and if Cilic wins the first set man I'd love to have live betting. It's night/day here.
 
Love your confidence KJ!! But at the same time Cilic serving well too so we could have one or 2 tiebreaks like today. To be honest I was just able to watch parts of Cilic's matchs so I don't have a conclusive opinion on his game this Wimbledon but everytime I think about him I think about his dream US Open run and how unplayable he was that's why I'm not overly optimistic. Brad Gilbert is as confident as you he predicts straight sets for Fed
 
For the women final I like Venus in the final. Playing great on grass. Could be close as the odds suggest but I like her to win here again, I remember she was the one I loved watching the most on the women tour before her physical problems.

Good luck anyway KJ :cheers3:
 
Line movement is annoying at best, I'm sticking to my guns and will go down in flames if needed. Pretty ok with it if it happens, I think it's a route.

Fun part of gambling is gloating or going down in shame I guess...I've got Mugu and Fed and going proudly to the dinner table....leggo
 
Well done with Muguruza :cheers3: Game over after Venus missed these set points in the 1st set.


Can't wait for tomorrow I'm getting more confident with Roger he will be ready. On a side note, the only times I watched him live was when he got destroyed by Isner on indoor clay...! Other time was an exhibition just after his 1st Wimbledon win. I'll try to watch him once more before he retires, maybe in Basel or Paris
 
Thanks mate, half way home

Very happy for Garbine, pretty much already earned a hall of fame bid now and a nice break from some of these chicks that fail under pressure
 
Yeah I like her too, just wish she would fire Sumyk I can't stand this guy. Maybe not a coincidence that she won without him in the stands...

And to add before the mens final, it will be Cilic's 2nd Grand Slam final so he has been there already, but useful to say that the 1st time was vs Nishikori. Not comparable when you have Fed Djoko or Nadal on the other side of the net I think.
 
He won the US Open, I really don't compare the two although maybe I should given the way this is playing out...the grass is fast as all fuck at this point. But I'm sticking to it, hell I think Fed can win three more. There's a real issue that separates the crème, they can actually return serve with a swing and not a block...and this guy does it better than anyone...ever.

I would really love to hear an argument about how Cilic can break Federer's serve, and even if he does, Fed can break him pretty quickly too. Hate to say it but it's a mismatch, and I know that sets me up for getting smoked....but I don't see the advantage on the other side.
 
Cilic will have problems to break but he takes a lot of risks against the big guys, that's how you beat them. If Cilic is in a great day we might have 2 tiebreaks for example and then it could be decided on a few points. Just playing devil's advocate, I love Fed to win but at the same time I can see arguments for Cilic at +450.

Of course I hope it will be a straight sets victory for Fed and no sweat!
 
If Cilic breaks Roger at all it's because of Roger...good news: Roger didn't play great yesterday, I like that he got it out the system
 
Let's hope so! But several times Fed showed he is a mortal too with defeats vs 2nd tier players like Berdych Tsonga at Wimbledon, Berdych Delpo Cilic at the US Open for example.
But in Grand Slams finals he only lost vs Delpo, the other 9 times he lost vs Rafa and Djoko.

So I'm confident too =) Fed in 3 or 4
 
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