2017 Combine & Draft Bets

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
NFL Draft:

First Player Taken: Defense -140 (avg price) (5 units)
First RB Taken: Dalvin Cook +375 (.50 unit)
First WR Taken: Corey Davis +375 (.50 unit)
First QB Taken: Mitch Trubisky +125 (1 unit)
First QB Taken: Deshone Kizer +600 (.25 unit)
Christian McCaffrey 1st RB taken +800 (1 unit)
McCaffrey drafted under pick 12.5 -105 (.50 unit)
Leonard Fournette Drafted Over 4.5 +135 (.50 unit)
Patrick Mahomes drafted under 25.5 -140 (1 unit)
Jamal Adams 1st DB taken +140 (.50 unit)
Joe Mixon drafted under 46.5 +125 (1 unit)
Joe Mixon drafted over 41.5 +130 (1 unit)
Chris Godwin 1st WR drafted Day 2 +450 (.25 unit)
Deshone Kizer 1st WR drafted Day 2 -165 (1 unit)
Chad Kelly to be drafted in 7th or undrafted +160 (1 unit)
Chad Kelly to be drafted in 6th round +260 (.50 unit)


NFL Combine:

Highest Vertical Jump: Over 42.5 -115 (3 units)
Adoree Jackson 40 Time: Under 4.41 -115 (2 units)
QB Slowest 40 Time Under 5.12 -115 (2 units)
Mike Williams 40 Time: Over 4.48 -130 (2 units)
Player to have Highest Vert: Offensive Player -105 (1 unit)
Fastest 40 Time: Over 4.28 -115 (1 unit)
Leonard Fournette 40 Time: Over 4.45 -115 (1 unit)
Highest Wonderlic Score: Over 37.5 -115 (1 unit)
Player to record Fastest 40: Shelton Gibson +500 (.25 unit)
Player to record Fastest 40: Field +600 (NOT Adoree Jackson, Jalen Myrick, John Ross, Kermit Whitfield, Shelton Gibson) (.25 unit)

All of these were BOL - bottom 3 on combine are BM. Will prob have some more when I get more options at other outs - happy to discuss with anyone.
 
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Who do you think jumps out of the gym to get you the over vertical jump bet?
 
dudleysdad said:
Qb under 5.12 forty is interesting
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No plodders this year. I think every guy runs sub 5. Davis Webb prob the slowest of the bunch but I think but he's not a bad athlete and hope the long strides get him there. Pretty sure in may research every guy was sub 5 last year, except the WKU QB Doughty, and one of the scouting sites I used forecasted he could have bad day and run 5.24 - ended up 5.22. pretty sure none of the guys this year are forecasted to run that slow and just looking at them - all are decently athletic. Hope Beathard doesn't pull another hammy though lol. Two years ago Oregon St QB Sean Mannion was 5.14 and same site had him on bad day at 5.17. 2014 two guys were 5+, MAC guy and Ivy League guy. I actually think I like the bet more than I've actually wagered.

Another couple guys on the vert are Njoku the TE from Miami and Ardarius Stewart WR from Bama - discussed both those guys with some scouts on twitter today as guys that could really hop.

One guy that I think will do really well on some cones and sprints is Washington DB Kevin King - his pro day last march he went 6.40 on 3 cone (that would cash an under bet on BOL with 6.5 as o/u 3 cone time), broad jumped 130'(135 is o/u on Bol), and hopped 39.5 (42.5 o/u on Bol). That will make a man some money.
 
Lol Beathard was my concern without looking up any prior 40 times
 
Beathard should just use his degree lol
no team should waste a pick on him
 
High forecasts for participants:

Trubisky 4.85
Kizer 4.86
Watson 4.75
Mahomes 4.95 (Faster)
Kaaya 4.95
Peterman 5.08
Webb 4.97
Evans 4.85
Dobbs 4.78
Beathard 4.98
Liufau 4.86 (He has to run better than that, right?)
Russell 4.76
Rush 4.97
Leidner 5.05 (He was one of B1G most athletic QB - gotta be faster than that)
Knight 4.86 (Wayyy faster, IMO)
 
Adoree Jackson 40 Time: Under 4.41 -115 (2 units)

He is going to kill the combine and run a top 5 time, IMO, I think he runs closer to 4.30 than 4.40. Jackson is an All American in track, mainly for long jump, but also has some nice 100m times.
 
Mike Williams 40 Time: Over 4.48 -130 (1 unit)

Pretty sure last 40 time I'm aware of on Williams was 4.5ish back in HS and I don't think he got any faster. If you look at him just a couple years back he was a lot lankier but has since broken his neck and put on some bulk - 40 LB since HS. This would be a pretty killer time for a guy his size and I just see him more in the other Mike Williams (4.53), Plaxico Burress (4.59) range.
 
Anyone have thoughts on Fournette - 4.45 o/u -115 each way. Came in at 240 today - maybe he is freaky enough to run low 4.4's at that weight but wow that seems like a lot to ask - I expected him to come in 10-15 lb lighter.
 
Player to record Fastest 40: Shelton Gibson +500 (.25 unit)
Player to record Fastest 40: Field +600 (NOT Adoree Jackson, Jalen Myrick, John Ross, Kermit Whitfield, Shelton Gibson) (.25 unit)

Highest Wonderlic Score: Over 37.5 -115 (1 unit)
The main reason I'm taking this is because I think Josh Dobbs, former Vols QB, is going to score very, very well. What pushed me over the edge, Eli Manning scored 39...
 
CrimsonK said:
Anyone have thoughts on Fournette - 4.45 o/u -115 each way. Came in at 240 today - maybe he is freaky enough to run low 4.4's at that weight but wow that seems like a lot to ask - I expected him to come in 10-15 lb lighter.
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I don't get him coming in at 240. Too fucking heavy
 
dudleysdad said:
I don't get him coming in at 240. Too fucking heavy
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That's kinda what I'm thinking. Henry was 247 lb and killed combine though although 40 was just avg- maybe it's his running style and the fact he's a few inches taller but he just always seemed like a much bigger back than LF.
 
Pretty sure I can run an 8.8 at 240 lbs.

That is pretty heavy though for him, it seems.
 
CrimsonK said:
That's kinda what I'm thinking. Henry was 247 lb and killed combine though although 40 was just avg- maybe it's his running style and the fact he's a few inches taller but he just always seemed like a much bigger back than LF.
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If he blows it outta the water at 240lbs I will tip my cap but Dalvin still #1 RB on the Wade/duds big board

ohh and my big board will be posted in a few days, get your :popcorn:
 
dudleysdad said:
If he blows it outta the water at 240lbs I will tip my cap but Dalvin still #1 RB on the Wade/duds big board

ohh and my big board will be posted in a few days, get your :popcorn:
Click to expand...

buddy nothing I'm looking forward to more. It will be one of the first times you and I prob see eye to eye on bama/bama players
 
CrimsonK said:
How deep can we expect the prospect list to be?
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It won't be very deep, it will be basically a list by position of guys I think can be successful at the next level.
for example, I have 6 qbs on my list and no Mitchy poo. Just do not like him. I would only draft those 6 qbs.. now in what spot? I can't make that call, it's up to a teams needs n where they can grab a guy.
Some draft boards have like 12-13 qbs being picked, talk about a waste of a pick. It's not that deep.
 
dudleysdad said:
It won't be very deep, it will be basically a list by position of guys I think can be successful at the next level.
for example, I have 6 qbs on my list and no Mitchy poo. Just do not like him. I would only draft those 6 qbs.. now in what spot? I can't make that call, it's up to a teams needs n where they can grab a guy.
Some draft boards have like 12-13 qbs being picked, talk about a waste of a pick. It's not that deep.
Click to expand...

Can't wait
 
Well, I talked myself into it. I'll literally pay to see it

Leonard Fournette 40 Time: Over 4.45 -115 (1 unit)
 
Added to mike Williams over 4.48 now for 2 u

Interesting read here from some scouts:

“Usually [Williams] would be a quicker conversation for us,” said one evaluator whose team once believed that Williams would be out of reach. “But after talking to some people about his potential [40] times, we did a little more work than we normally would have done. I think there’s a chance that he might have a [mediocre] 40.”

How fast are teams expecting the Clemson star to run? The over/under on Williams is being pegged by some NFL scouting departments at 4.65 seconds in the 40. If he’s slower than that, the opinion is he’ll suffer a slip. If he’s somewhere between 4.6 and 4.65, the teams that already like him will likely stay steady. If he’s faster than 4.6 seconds, he’s going to help himself. The ultimate goal will be to exit the combine without the dreaded “possession receiver” label, something Mississippi wideout Laquon Treadwell failed to avoid this time last year.

Said one scout: “If he runs faster than 4.6, wherever he went to work on his 40 did a great job with him.”
Another NFL evaluator said Williams’ tape already suggests to teams whether he’s a fit or not, but if he shows unexpected speed, it could help open Williams to teams that have some hardened standards.

“Some guys just won’t take receivers who run slower than a 4.6, just like some guys won’t take quarterbacks who are shorter than 6-foot-1. [For Williams], a lot of it will depend on do you like the speed that he plays with on the tape. From what I’ve seen, his greatest separation comes when his feet leave the ground – when he’s going up for a ball. I don’t see as much separation when his feet are on the ground and he’s just trying to outrun the guy in front of him. … If he’s slower than 4.65, he’s not going to get much separation [in the NFL] and you’re going to have to draw up ways to get him the ball using that size. That’s just more limiting than a guy who can outrun coverage and jump above it.”
 
Just watching Clemson all year you see that Williams doesn't rely on speed. He was a jump ball guy against the highest competition they faced, very few snaps where I was wow'd by his separation.

Not a giant negative when you're a goddamn beast the way he is, speed just not his game.
 
Just played Over 4.48 for Williams on BOL, they took it down to change the line now. That's just an outrageous number on him, even at Over -160 that's simply not a realistic time for him at all.
 
Scrute said:
Great info...these only at 5Dimes?
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Primarily BOL. BM was doing this weird thing where they would put up options and then they would just disappear for a few hours and then randomly be put back up and then gone, etc. Surprisingly, I haven't seen anything at 5d. My hope is they put some up today or tomorrow
 
raems said:
Just watching Clemson all year you see that Williams doesn't rely on speed. He was a jump ball guy against the highest competition they faced, very few snaps where I was wow'd by his separation.

Not a giant negative when you're a goddamn beast the way he is, speed just not his game.
Click to expand...

Ya he really just relies on high pointing and being the best up top not the vertical speed. Personally, I wouldn't use a first round pick on him - I think Corey Davis is pretty clearly the best WR coming out and I think I would rather have La Tech's Carlos Henderson ahead of Williams also. Not a knock on the guy, I just think he can do fewer things so scheme will be super important for him to be successful.
 
raems said:
Is Myles Garrett actually going to run below a 4.53?
Click to expand...

That prop has gotten knocked around a ton. Seems the market is all over the place on this one. I tend to think he won't be quite that quick - that would be a heck of a time. He is a freaky dude though. I remember reading the first time Trevor Knight saw/met him he came strolling into weight room bare foot and started power cleaning 350.
 
Few RB notables so far on bench:

Perine 30!
Cook 22 (Shoulders checked out)
McCaffrey 10
Pumphrey 5 (This is horrible - O/U for lowest for combine was 6)
 
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