2017-18 Bowl Games w Marsski

Marsski

Marsski

MAC Marvel
YTD: 83-74, +7.02

ADD: Clemson +3.5 to win 1 unit
Not sure why this was still being offered on my site (it was up all week as a future match-up) but can't pass up the hook...

2017-18 Bowl slate:

Dec. 9 Army TT Over 21.5 pts to win 1 unit (-115) (NAVY game)
Dec.16 M Tenn State +3.5 to win 1 unit
Dec. 19 FAU -22.5 to win 2 units (-115)
Dec. 22 Ohio U./UAB Over 57 to win 1 unit
Dec. 22 Ohio Bobcats -6.5 to win half unit (-107)
Dec. 22 Ohio Bobcats TT Over 30.5 to win half unit (-115)
Dec. 22 CMU/Wyoming Over 45 to win 1 unit
Dec. 22 Chips TT Over 21.5 to win half unit (-120)
Dec. 23 S. Florida -2.5 to win 1 unit (-115)
Dec. 23 S Florida Bulls TT Over 35 to win 1 unit (-115)
Dec. 23 2h Army TT Over 10 to win half unit (-160)
Dec. 23 Toledo -6.5 to win 1 unit (-112), -6 to win half unit (-112)
Dec. 23 Toledo Rockets TT Over 33.5 to win 1 unit (-115), TT Over 33.5 to win half unit (-130)
Dec. 23 Half-Unit Parlay: S Fla ML/UNC ML (hoops)/Army +6.5/Toledo ML to win 2.41
Dec. 24 Fresno/Houston UND 49.5 to win half unit
Half unit parlay: Fresno St./Houston Under 50.5/Ok State -4 to win 1.32
Dec. 26 Utah -7 to win half unit
Dec. 26 NIU/Duke Over 47.5 to win 1 unit
Dec. 27 BC +3 to win half unit
Dec. 27 Arizona Wildcats TT Over 34.5 to win 1 unit (-120)
Dec. 27 Mizzou -2.5 to win 1 unit (-120)
Dec. 28 Navy -1 to win 1 unit (-105)
Dec. 28 Ok State -4 to win 2 units (-120)
Dec. 28 Wazzou +3 to win 1 unit (-115)
Dec. 28/29 Parlay: Ok State -5.5/THE OSU -7 1unit to win 2.43
Dec. 28/29 ML parlay: Ok State/Northwestern/THE OSU half unit to win 1.2
Dec. 28/29 3 team parlay: Navy -1.5/Ok State -5.5/THE OSU -7 1 unit to win 5.27
Dec. 29 OSU prop: #2 Dobbins OVER Rush yards 107.5 to win half unit
Dec. 29 OSU prop: #14 KJ Hill ov 40.5 REC yards to win half unit -110; Ov 44.5 to win .25 unit -110
Dec. 29 OSU prop: #21 Parris Campbell ov 50.5 REC yards to win half unit (-110)
Dec. 29 OSU prop: JT Ov 314.5 yards (PASS/RUN) betting half unit (+120)
Dec. 29 Utah State -3.5 to win 1 unit
Dec. 29 Northwestern -6.5 to win 1 unit (-123)
Dec. 29 Northwestern TT Over 29.5 to win 1 unit (-120)
Dec. 30 LVille -6.5 to win half unit (-120)
Dec. 30 Memphis/Iowa State Over 65.5 to win 1 unit
Dec. 30 Penn State -2.5 to win 2 units (-115)
Dec. 30 Canes +4.5 to win 1 unit
Dec. 30 Canes TT Over 20 to win 1 unit (-120)
Dec. 29/Jan. 1 Wong teaser: The OSU -1.5/The Team Up North -1.5 to win 1 unit
Jan. 1 Michigan TT Over 25 to win 1 unit (-120)
Jan. 1 ND/LSU Over 51.5 to win 1 unit
Jan. 1 Ga. -2.5 to win half unit (-120)
Jan. 1 Ga./Oklahoma Under 61 to win 1 unit
Jan. 1 Michigan -7 to win 1 unit (-120)
Jan. 1 CFla +10 to win 1 unit
Jan. 1 Clemson +3.5 to win 1 unit
 
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Penn St is a quality team to me. I blame the coaching for shitting the bed against OSU and then they had a weird game with rain delays against MSU. Otherwise, they have been taking care of business.

The Huskies have beat exactly one ranked team this year. PAC 10 hasn't impressed me this year.

I'll lay the points.

ADD:

Penn State -2.5 to win 1 unit (-115)
 
Stockstill makes MTSU much better...like how they thought they weren't getting a bowl game and then got this one. Hard to see them unmotivated.

ADD:

M Tenn State +3.5 to win 1 unit
 
Thanks BAR...

One angle I like to look at for bowl season are teams that haven't been to a bowl vs. experienced bowl programs. It's even better if you have an inexperienced coach with bowl prep vs. an experienced one. I just use a five-year cycle because that accounts for the players in the program...

There's five games that apply this year:

1. Purdue vs. Arizona
Purdue--no bowls since 2012 loss to OK St
Coach Brohm: first year coach but 2 bowl wins @ Wky

Zona: No bowl LY but bowls in 15,14,13,12
Coach Dick Rod: 3-1 in bowls @ Zona, 5-5 overall

2. Fla Intl vs Temple
Fla Intl-- no bowls since 2011
Coach Davis: first year coach but 5-2 previous

Temple--lost bowl games in 16,15
Coach Collins: first year coach, first bowl game

3. UAB vs. Ohio
UAB--first year eligible for bowl so this one is a little different...
Coach Clark: 2nd year, first bowl game

Ohio--4 bowl games 16,15,13,12
Coach Solich: 2-6 @ Ohio in bowl games, 4-9 overall

4. N Mex St vs. Utah St
NMST--no bowls since 1960
Coach Martin: 5th year @ NMST, never coached in a bowl

Utah St--No bowl last year but bowls in 15, 14, 13,12
Coach Wells: 2-1 in bowls @ Utah St

5. Virginia vs. Navy
Virginia--no bowls since 2011
Coach Mendenhall: 2nd year at Va., 6-5 in bowls at BYU

Navy--bowls in 16,15,14,13,12
Coach Niumatalolo: 4-5 in bowls @ Navy


So the plays fitting this system would be Arizona -3.5, Temple -7, Ohio -7.5, Utah St -3.5, and Navy (?).

I probably would toss Temple because their Coach hasn't been and Butch Davis has 7 bowl games.

I really like Navy under this system...of course, they do have a game left so have to wait to see spread and if they have major injuries vs Army. Utah St also stands out...
 
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If you think X's and O's Arizona is a good match up then I can understand that but Brohm is a good coach, betting against him on a preparation angle is something I will not be doing.
 
I haven't gotten too deep in the matchups myself, but taking that Arizona - Purdue one step further, Purdue does have the benefit of having to prepare for Lamar Jackson all summer for the opener. I can't recall right now how that worked out for them, although the game was close. So facing an outstanding QB in the mold of Jackson will be interesting for Purdue to end their season with. Of course there is always two sides to the coin, Arizona can watch film to and see how Purdue handled Jackson and do some different things.

I think alot of variables come into play for bowl games. And not saying just the experience angle is an easy out, clearly it is just one piece of information as part of the whole pie, but it can be easy to latch onto some easy to point to reasonings when making the picks. Bowl experience and lack there of is very important. I wonder if we can back it up with some w/l records. Like teams that haven't been to a bowl in 3+ seasons, or head coaches making their first bowl trip, surely there must be some records we can utilize?
 
s--k said:
I haven't gotten too deep in the matchups myself, but taking that Arizona - Purdue one step further, Purdue does have the benefit of having to prepare for Lamar Jackson all summer for the opener. I can't recall right now how that worked out for them, although the game was close. So facing an outstanding QB in the mold of Jackson will be interesting for Purdue to end their season with. Of course there is always two sides to the coin, Arizona can watch film to and see how Purdue handled Jackson and do some different things.

I think alot of variables come into play for bowl games. And not saying just the experience angle is an easy out, clearly it is just one piece of information as part of the whole pie, but it can be easy to latch onto some easy to point to reasonings when making the picks. Bowl experience and lack there of is very important. I wonder if we can back it up with some w/l records. Like teams that haven't been to a bowl in 3+ seasons, or head coaches making their first bowl trip, surely there must be some records we can utilize?
Click to expand...

Right. I guess I wasn't trying to say I would take all of these teams...just that it's one thing to look at...and here is who it would apply to. I don't have the database to do w/l records but I would be interested to know if someone did....
 
ksimpsc said:
If you think X's and O's Arizona is a good match up then I can understand that but Brohm is a good coach, betting against him on a preparation angle is something I will not be doing.
Click to expand...

Tend to agree. I like Zona's offense against Purdue. But I much prefer Brohm to Dick Rod.

I was just more throwing this info out as something to think about.
 
UAB will have success through the air on the Bobcats whose secondary is total trash. OU QB Rourke is going to be fine to go and Dorian Brown is more than capable at RB if AJ can't go. Bobcats have a big play offense, and don't really grind it out that much. I look for a shootout here and anything under 60 is a play for me on the Over.
UAB games 9-1 to the over last 10....

ADD:

Ohio U./UAB Over 57 to win 1 unit
 
Marsski said:
Tend to agree. I like Zona's offense against Purdue. But I much prefer Brohm to Dick Rod.

I was just more throwing this info out as something to think about.
Click to expand...
I appreciate the info and like the angle. I just like brohm too much to consider that one but I definitely like the angle.
 
Yeah the first timers, it's like it can go both ways...will the enthusiasm carry over through practices and show in strong performances, or will the more experienced 'been-there-done-that' teams have the edge? It seems like the ones who know their routines and how things will play out have an advantage. Especially coaches who know how they want to spend their time and can look back at possible mistakes and things they've learned from prior trips. I will see if I can find some performance data on it. Surely it's been compiled before.
 
s--k said:
Yeah the first timers, it's like it can go both ways...will the enthusiasm carry over through practices and show in strong performances, or will the more experienced 'been-there-done-that' teams have the edge? It seems like the ones who know their routines and how things will play out have an advantage. Especially coaches who know how they want to spend their time and can look back at possible mistakes and things they've learned from prior trips. I will see if I can find some performance data on it. Surely it's been compiled before.
Click to expand...

Oh I definitely think it's an advantage. Imagine being a college kid whose never been on a bowl trip vs. one who goes every year...I bet we see it show up in the numbers....
 
I expect the entire city of Las Cruces to be in Tucson. And Chico's Tacos.
 
NMST beat 4 win South Alabama and 4 win Idaho...those are their "good" wins. Utah State also beat up on the shitty teams but their conference is better...
 
Guess I don't really care how good either are in these low tier bowls

Capping motivation only because I think that's 90% of it and it's difficult. Won't be in this one.
 
Marsski said:
Oh I definitely think it's an advantage. Imagine being a college kid whose never been on a bowl trip vs. one who goes every year...I bet we see it show up in the numbers....
Click to expand...

I'm on it, will have something tonight to post.
 
I just don't see how Akron can stay in this one. I do think there's a chance that the total doesn't hit the mid 60s from Akron basically sitting on the ball so I'm playing ATS...

ADD:

FAU -22.5 to win 2 units (-115)
 
I had Akron against Toledo and let me tell you it was a miracle backdoor cover. What would the spread be in this game if Toledo would have beat them by 38+? That's where that game was headed. FAU at home, Lane signed to new 10-year deal (I know, I know), team ready to show out on national TV and playing Akron with terrible Run D....uh oh
 
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I will say that Akron does have a ton of guys from Florida on their roster. A ton. So I don't think they will be scared. i'm just not seeing the defensive talent other than some ballhawks to stop FAU. And the offense has been hit and miss all year, Cato will be running around and trying to make plays but they basically have one playmaker who scares you deep. No running game.
 
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Thanks KJ, felt like I saw that game pretty good.

Bought off the 7...much prefer Fitzgerald to Stoops. the SEC East was trash except for Ga. NW on 7 game winning streak, Ky. lost 3 of 4 coming home...

ADD:

Northwestern -6.5 to win 1 unit (-123)
 
Card is getting a little chalky but this one moved where I wanted it...Rockets are far and away the best team in the MAC this year.

ADD:

Toledo Rockets -6.5 to win 1 unit (-112)
 
I'll be surprised if CMU doesn't score some points and force Wyoming to open up the playbook. Two pretty good QBs in this game, CMU's has come on late.

ADD:

CMU/Wyoming Over 45 to win 1 unit
 
Bobcats really looked good yesterday. I think they were just so disappointed after losing to Akron that they did show up at all @ Buffalo. And then they had three weeks to think about how they ended the year. LEt's be honest, UAB looked shitty as well. Tons of dropped passes, couldn't stop the run without putting 8 in the box.

Today, we have two of my favorite offenses in college football going in SFla and the Rockets. Doubling down on them. This is a money game for Logan Woodside & Q Flowers.

ADD:

S Florida Bulls TT Over 35 to win 1 unit (-115)
Toledo Rockets TT Over 33.5 to win 1 unit (-115)
 
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Let's take a shot on a Saturday multi-sport parlay

Half-Unit Parlay: S Fla ML/UNC ML (hoops)/Army +6.5/Toledo ML to win 2.41
 
Just gonna add on here and really hit it big if Toledo comes in...this is on top of my other bets...

ADD:

Toledo TT Over 33.5 to win half unit (-130)
Toledo -6 to win half unit (-112)
 
Well, Toledo ruined a great day for me yesterday. Not sure why they didn't show up.

Tired of waiting to see if I can get a 4, so I bought it. Only my second 2 unit bowl play.

ADD:

Ok State -4 to win 2 units (-120)
 
First bowl under I kinda like, both scoring defenses in top 40. Cougars have big ol Ed Oliver ready to wreck.

ADD:

Fresno/Houston UND 49.5 to win half unit
 
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