Some observations about the draws of name players...
Plikova's draw has put paid to me thinking about backing her to win her quarter. After an easy 1R she has too many testing opponents: past inconsistencies suggest she'll put in a dud somewhere before she's capable of winning 4 testing ones in a row. Still, there's certainly no single opponent she can't beat. Mladenovic/Pavlyuchenkova, Venus & Fraudwanska should be her main barriers to a SF berth.
Venus has a gift of a draw to make the semis barring an expected 4R match-up with Pliskova. She gets through that then she'll have her QF match against (expected to make it) Radwanska on her racquet (plus the Pole had never made it to the QF here, let alone SF).
Speaking of Fraudwanska, she has a sweet draw until a QF vs. Venus. First real test will come in the 3R against 1 of 2 players who'll be a threat simply because they've got power games (Bouchard or Garcia); In the 4R it'll be one of Bacsinszky (both play a similar game, but Rads slight improvements plus Bacs dodgy form would make the Swiss unbackable imo, at least at this point in time), Bertens (poor record on hardcourts, so even though she has the power to bother Rads she lacks too much elsewhere to beat her here) or Konjuh (the Serb lost to Rads@Wimbledon in the 2R: when leading in the 3rd set she trod on a ball & injured her ankle thus fucked her chances of winning. She lost that 3rd set 9-7 in the end. She's too young yet to win a 4R match @a Slam against such a high seed).
Bouchard has 2 very winnable matches before facing Fraudwanska in the 3R. Since she's a power player that match would be on her racquet, but the Pole is showing interesting improvements in her game & Bouchard's general inconsistent ground game against someone who only wins precisely because she's got such a consistent ground game, it's hard to see the Canadian advancing on current form. However, Garcia is herself in poor form (2-6 L8 entering the USO) so Genie should be paying OK odds to win their expected 2R meeting.
If Serena wins her 1R match - and that isn't a given imo - then she has an interesting expected 3R opponent in Ivanobitch: aside from all the flack I give the Serb, she's beaten Serena at a HC Slam before (& taken a set off her in 2 of their L3 HC meetings). The Serb seems to play some of her best tennis when facing the American. Serena wins that then she should face Stosur (they last met 2 years ago, on a HC, Serena won 7-6 7-6) or Kasatkina (they met at this year's AO: Serena won 6-1 6-1): no guessing who the American would prefer to meet. From there she would most probably face Halep in the QF: the Beast's 7-0 record against Simona doesn't faze my belief the latter can beat her if Serena's serving is off (if Kerber could at the AO, then Halep can). However I think Halep is vulnerable to an early exit for a couple of reasons, and if that happens then the QF stage becomes more or less a speed bump. Her SF opp. would be either Venus (watch that bitch lay down for her sister for the 2nd year straight) or, much more preferably from my pov, Pliskova. The Pliskova we just saw against Muguruza & Kerber @Cincy but serving at her best (which she didn't @Cincy despite those 2 comprehensive wins) = a nightmare for Serena. As I made the point repeatedly at the FO, Serena really only destroys the light hitters these days. Any power player she meets with a capable ground game is always going to be a chance against her at this point in her career. Here in that guise she (potentially) faces Makarova then Ivanovic then Stosur then Pliskova (or a substitute who'd fit the bill, Mladenovic; Pavlyuchenkova also fits the bill as a power player, but I think she's got a mental block facing Serena thus explaining her 0-6 record). And if she got through all those players, then it could be - knock on wood her form actually being refound - yet another power player in Muguruza. Needless to say I wouldn't back her at current odds, her potential list of foes doesn't warrant accepting anythig less than +220-250 imo.
Cibulkova has only once made it past the 3R in 8 previous USO appearances (the QF in 2010), but she has a gift draw to make it to the 4R here. First 'name' opponent to potentially appear is in the 3R: Begu (weak on HC) or Tsurenko (never won a 3R match at any Slam). The 4R would present her first real test (any one of Lisicki, Friedsam, Putintseva or Vinci: the latter would be expected to win through to this point and is 6-1 against Cibu in their last 7 meetings, but the Italian is in poor form & it wouldn't surprise me if either of the Germans were her opp.). Her QF would be Kerber or Kvitova or Svitolina. She'd have trouble against them all. Negative stat for Cibulkova: she's never made it beyond the 3R at a Slam following one in which she made the QF in. She made the QF @Wimbledon.
Kvitova is on record at saying she doesn't like New York (how it feels in her experience, not strictly the tourney but the place as a whole). Still, she's made at least the 3R in the all the years (2012+) that have followed her maiden Slam win (2011). What mirrors the stat in that last sentence is the fact she'd also made every final at New Haven (lead-in to the USO) since 2012, so while she may not like the place she's carried winning energy into it the last 4 years to avert an early exit. Here she just lost a very poorly played SF at New Haven, and so she's not going to be bringing any winning energy into Flushing Meadows. That's not good news considering she's got a brutal draw. Ostapenko then Falconi/Buyukakcay then Svitolina then Kerber then Cibulkova/Vinci/Lisicki. All her first 4 opponents may cede power to her, but all have enough consistency on the ground to drive her bananas if she's hitting UE to the degree she did less than 12 hours ago against Fraudwanska. I struggle to see the Czech being in the right space to make it past the 3R. She experienced an engagement break-up in May and has suffered physical problems from before & since then (and ditched her coach of 7 years, saying it felt like losing a family member). She'll be on upset alert from match #1.
Keys has a doddle until the 3R, where either Osaka or Vandeweghe have enough power to trouble her if she's not at her best. Then a 4R match against probably Kuznetsova (less likely Wozniacki). The American & Russian have played one full match (Keys won 6-4 6-4) but that was right before the 2015 AO, so you never know how seriously Kuznetsova took it at her age. Again Keys should win if she plays her best, if not the Russian has enough veteran savvy to get by with her superior ground game. QF would be one of Konta/Puig/Muguruza (everything considered, most likely the Brit: best for Keys if it was the Puerto Rican). Then a SF against her Olympic assassin, Kerber. No easy road to a first Slam F for Madison.
Konta's got a tough draw: 1R vs. Mattek-Sands (who is capable on her day of delivering a one-off nightmare against anyone on her home turf: it's just those days are almost like Black Swans, you can't get rich betting on them arriving). 2R vs. Pironkova or (less likely) Razzano (like M-S, either can pull one out of their ass on their day; Razzano is after all the only woman in history to beat Serena in the 1R at a Slam). 3R vs. Petkovic (Konta beat her 7-6 6-3 in the 3R here last year, a match decided with that 1st set tiebreak) or Bencic (huge ? over her: it's a given she can beat anyone if she's fit). 4R vs. Muguruza (who she also beat here last year 7-6 6-7 6-2, in the 2R. As w/Bencic, a ? hangs over her head, but if she's in form to win 3 straight and make this round then it should be a battle royal like last year). Then a QF against Keys & a SF vs. Kerber.
Kerber was on notice to be an upset candidate. Her loss to Pliskova @Cincy showed her to be running low on juice, and that was just a week ago, hardly enough down time for her to be back at 100%. But her draw is a gift that Serena must envy. Hercog then Cornet then Errani: all laughers even if the German isn't at her best (though the Frenchie has beaten Serena at a Slam, so I couldn't completely write off a 2R shocker). 4R would be the first opponent to present an expectation on-paper of an upset, that being Kvitova or (more likely) Svitolina. The Ukranian currently plays an unpolished version of Kerber's own game, so she'd be a slight chance if Kerber wasn't near her own best (a match to ideally deal with via live betting). QF vs. Vinci/Friedsam/Cibulkova/Lisicki: she hasn't played Vinci since her breakout year in 2014; beat Friedsam 6-2 7-6 in their sole meeting ('14); 4-0 vs. Cibulkova since her breakout year; is 6-0 vs. Lisicki. SF vs. Keys/Konta/Muguruza. Of the 3, Muguruza owns her ass (2-0 in Slams, 4-0 overall since the Spaniard's breakout effort at the 2015 FO) while she owns the other 2 (5-1 vs. Keys, 2-0 vs. Konta).
Muguruza gets an easy first couple of rounds (qualifier first up & a pusher in the 2R), then most likely faces Puig, who should be mentally if not also physically tired if she makes it to said point (while Puig beat her 6-1 6-1 @Rio, I don't read much at all into any of those Olympic results, other than Puig would obv. bring confidence from that result into this match if it actually takes place). 4R vs. Konta would demonstrate where sexy legs really is: a straight sets win (any scoreline) here after a win against Puig would be the green light she's a serious contender. A QF vs. Keys (she's 0-2 against, but the meeting from 4 years back is irrelevant; the other was on the clay of Rome right before this year's FO: no guesses which player's mind was more on the coming Slam) then a SF against the German (who, as I just posted above, the Spaniard owns since coming of age on tour in 2015). Really, Muguruza has 2 difficult opponents - Konta & Keys - in her way of a final berth (thoug some might argue I'm selling Puig's threat short). She has a nice draw, she's started to show glimpses of her FO form. It's all about her mastering the challenge of managing all the extraneous BS that's come with winning a maiden Slam title (amplified by the fact she's the first Spanish woman to do so in over 20 years). Halep is on record as saying that after she made her first Slam final in 2014 it's that which weighed her down mentally and affected her form for the rest of that year. Kerber suffered something similar after this year's AO win, but being much older than either Halep or Muguruza gave her the adv. of having more maturity to meet the challenge with.