2016 U.S. Open Draw and Discussion

Some observations about the draws of name players...


Plikova
's draw has put paid to me thinking about backing her to win her quarter. After an easy 1R she has too many testing opponents: past inconsistencies suggest she'll put in a dud somewhere before she's capable of winning 4 testing ones in a row. Still, there's certainly no single opponent she can't beat. Mladenovic/Pavlyuchenkova, Venus & Fraudwanska should be her main barriers to a SF berth.

Venus has a gift of a draw to make the semis barring an expected 4R match-up with Pliskova. She gets through that then she'll have her QF match against (expected to make it) Radwanska on her racquet (plus the Pole had never made it to the QF here, let alone SF).

Speaking of Fraudwanska, she has a sweet draw until a QF vs. Venus. First real test will come in the 3R against 1 of 2 players who'll be a threat simply because they've got power games (Bouchard or Garcia); In the 4R it'll be one of Bacsinszky (both play a similar game, but Rads slight improvements plus Bacs dodgy form would make the Swiss unbackable imo, at least at this point in time), Bertens (poor record on hardcourts, so even though she has the power to bother Rads she lacks too much elsewhere to beat her here) or Konjuh (the Serb lost to Rads@Wimbledon in the 2R: when leading in the 3rd set she trod on a ball & injured her ankle thus fucked her chances of winning. She lost that 3rd set 9-7 in the end. She's too young yet to win a 4R match @a Slam against such a high seed).

Bouchard has 2 very winnable matches before facing Fraudwanska in the 3R. Since she's a power player that match would be on her racquet, but the Pole is showing interesting improvements in her game & Bouchard's general inconsistent ground game against someone who only wins precisely because she's got such a consistent ground game, it's hard to see the Canadian advancing on current form. However, Garcia is herself in poor form (2-6 L8 entering the USO) so Genie should be paying OK odds to win their expected 2R meeting.

If Serena wins her 1R match - and that isn't a given imo - then she has an interesting expected 3R opponent in Ivanobitch: aside from all the flack I give the Serb, she's beaten Serena at a HC Slam before (& taken a set off her in 2 of their L3 HC meetings). The Serb seems to play some of her best tennis when facing the American. Serena wins that then she should face Stosur (they last met 2 years ago, on a HC, Serena won 7-6 7-6) or Kasatkina (they met at this year's AO: Serena won 6-1 6-1): no guessing who the American would prefer to meet. From there she would most probably face Halep in the QF: the Beast's 7-0 record against Simona doesn't faze my belief the latter can beat her if Serena's serving is off (if Kerber could at the AO, then Halep can). However I think Halep is vulnerable to an early exit for a couple of reasons, and if that happens then the QF stage becomes more or less a speed bump. Her SF opp. would be either Venus (watch that bitch lay down for her sister for the 2nd year straight) or, much more preferably from my pov, Pliskova. The Pliskova we just saw against Muguruza & Kerber @Cincy but serving at her best (which she didn't @Cincy despite those 2 comprehensive wins) = a nightmare for Serena. As I made the point repeatedly at the FO, Serena really only destroys the light hitters these days. Any power player she meets with a capable ground game is always going to be a chance against her at this point in her career. Here in that guise she (potentially) faces Makarova then Ivanovic then Stosur then Pliskova (or a substitute who'd fit the bill, Mladenovic; Pavlyuchenkova also fits the bill as a power player, but I think she's got a mental block facing Serena thus explaining her 0-6 record). And if she got through all those players, then it could be - knock on wood her form actually being refound - yet another power player in Muguruza. Needless to say I wouldn't back her at current odds, her potential list of foes doesn't warrant accepting anythig less than +220-250 imo.

Cibulkova has only once made it past the 3R in 8 previous USO appearances (the QF in 2010), but she has a gift draw to make it to the 4R here. First 'name' opponent to potentially appear is in the 3R: Begu (weak on HC) or Tsurenko (never won a 3R match at any Slam). The 4R would present her first real test (any one of Lisicki, Friedsam, Putintseva or Vinci: the latter would be expected to win through to this point and is 6-1 against Cibu in their last 7 meetings, but the Italian is in poor form & it wouldn't surprise me if either of the Germans were her opp.). Her QF would be Kerber or Kvitova or Svitolina. She'd have trouble against them all. Negative stat for Cibulkova: she's never made it beyond the 3R at a Slam following one in which she made the QF in. She made the QF @Wimbledon.

Kvitova is on record at saying she doesn't like New York (how it feels in her experience, not strictly the tourney but the place as a whole). Still, she's made at least the 3R in the all the years (2012+) that have followed her maiden Slam win (2011). What mirrors the stat in that last sentence is the fact she'd also made every final at New Haven (lead-in to the USO) since 2012, so while she may not like the place she's carried winning energy into it the last 4 years to avert an early exit. Here she just lost a very poorly played SF at New Haven, and so she's not going to be bringing any winning energy into Flushing Meadows. That's not good news considering she's got a brutal draw. Ostapenko then Falconi/Buyukakcay then Svitolina then Kerber then Cibulkova/Vinci/Lisicki. All her first 4 opponents may cede power to her, but all have enough consistency on the ground to drive her bananas if she's hitting UE to the degree she did less than 12 hours ago against Fraudwanska. I struggle to see the Czech being in the right space to make it past the 3R. She experienced an engagement break-up in May and has suffered physical problems from before & since then (and ditched her coach of 7 years, saying it felt like losing a family member). She'll be on upset alert from match #1.

Keys has a doddle until the 3R, where either Osaka or Vandeweghe have enough power to trouble her if she's not at her best. Then a 4R match against probably Kuznetsova (less likely Wozniacki). The American & Russian have played one full match (Keys won 6-4 6-4) but that was right before the 2015 AO, so you never know how seriously Kuznetsova took it at her age. Again Keys should win if she plays her best, if not the Russian has enough veteran savvy to get by with her superior ground game. QF would be one of Konta/Puig/Muguruza (everything considered, most likely the Brit: best for Keys if it was the Puerto Rican). Then a SF against her Olympic assassin, Kerber. No easy road to a first Slam F for Madison.

Konta's got a tough draw: 1R vs. Mattek-Sands (who is capable on her day of delivering a one-off nightmare against anyone on her home turf: it's just those days are almost like Black Swans, you can't get rich betting on them arriving). 2R vs. Pironkova or (less likely) Razzano (like M-S, either can pull one out of their ass on their day; Razzano is after all the only woman in history to beat Serena in the 1R at a Slam). 3R vs. Petkovic (Konta beat her 7-6 6-3 in the 3R here last year, a match decided with that 1st set tiebreak) or Bencic (huge ? over her: it's a given she can beat anyone if she's fit). 4R vs. Muguruza (who she also beat here last year 7-6 6-7 6-2, in the 2R. As w/Bencic, a ? hangs over her head, but if she's in form to win 3 straight and make this round then it should be a battle royal like last year). Then a QF against Keys & a SF vs. Kerber.

Kerber was on notice to be an upset candidate. Her loss to Pliskova @Cincy showed her to be running low on juice, and that was just a week ago, hardly enough down time for her to be back at 100%. But her draw is a gift that Serena must envy. Hercog then Cornet then Errani: all laughers even if the German isn't at her best (though the Frenchie has beaten Serena at a Slam, so I couldn't completely write off a 2R shocker). 4R would be the first opponent to present an expectation on-paper of an upset, that being Kvitova or (more likely) Svitolina. The Ukranian currently plays an unpolished version of Kerber's own game, so she'd be a slight chance if Kerber wasn't near her own best (a match to ideally deal with via live betting). QF vs. Vinci/Friedsam/Cibulkova/Lisicki: she hasn't played Vinci since her breakout year in 2014; beat Friedsam 6-2 7-6 in their sole meeting ('14); 4-0 vs. Cibulkova since her breakout year; is 6-0 vs. Lisicki. SF vs. Keys/Konta/Muguruza. Of the 3, Muguruza owns her ass (2-0 in Slams, 4-0 overall since the Spaniard's breakout effort at the 2015 FO) while she owns the other 2 (5-1 vs. Keys, 2-0 vs. Konta).

Muguruza gets an easy first couple of rounds (qualifier first up & a pusher in the 2R), then most likely faces Puig, who should be mentally if not also physically tired if she makes it to said point (while Puig beat her 6-1 6-1 @Rio, I don't read much at all into any of those Olympic results, other than Puig would obv. bring confidence from that result into this match if it actually takes place). 4R vs. Konta would demonstrate where sexy legs really is: a straight sets win (any scoreline) here after a win against Puig would be the green light she's a serious contender. A QF vs. Keys (she's 0-2 against, but the meeting from 4 years back is irrelevant; the other was on the clay of Rome right before this year's FO: no guesses which player's mind was more on the coming Slam) then a SF against the German (who, as I just posted above, the Spaniard owns since coming of age on tour in 2015). Really, Muguruza has 2 difficult opponents - Konta & Keys - in her way of a final berth (thoug some might argue I'm selling Puig's threat short). She has a nice draw, she's started to show glimpses of her FO form. It's all about her mastering the challenge of managing all the extraneous BS that's come with winning a maiden Slam title (amplified by the fact she's the first Spanish woman to do so in over 20 years). Halep is on record as saying that after she made her first Slam final in 2014 it's that which weighed her down mentally and affected her form for the rest of that year. Kerber suffered something similar after this year's AO win, but being much older than either Halep or Muguruza gave her the adv. of having more maturity to meet the challenge with.
 
BC love the analysis. Anything you can post on any of the players' motivation or anything of the sort is what is key. I love Cibulkova (for multiple reasons) and I think she should be in a good frame of mind this time around
 
Djokovic to not win the US open at -151 looks good to me.

[h=1]Novak Djokovic, still struggling with wrist, blames Wimbledon flop on 'private issues'[/h]The world number one insisted those issues, which he was reluctant to divulge, are now resolved but admits the wrist injury remains a concern, with the final grand slam of the year less than three days away.
Djokovic arrives in New York unusually out of form, having bowed out in the third round at Wimbledon to Sam Querrey and the first at the Olympics to Juan Martin del Potro.
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Video - Djokovic: I'm 29, I'm at my peak, and I want to keep it that way

01:24



Del Potro is finally bouncing back from his own two-year wrist problem and Djokovic even suggested the Argentinean's chronic issue was "more or less the same injury that I'm encountering."
[h=2]WATCH THE US OPEN LIVE ON EUROSPORT[/h]Djokovic said: "The wrist hasn't been ideal for the last three and a half weeks.
"But I'm doing everything in my power with obviously the medical team to make sure that I'm as close to 100 per cent as possible during the course of this tournament, at least for the beginning of it.
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"It happened actually in Rio, just few days before the start of the tournament. I did experience this for the first time in my career.
"I've never had this particular wrist injury before. I played against Del Potro, who unfortunately was absent from the tour for the wrist injury himself.
"It was interesting for me to experience how it was and how it is for him for so many years struggling with that essential part of your body as a tennis player.
"After undergoing certain treatments I've gotten better. I'm just hoping that Monday when the tournament starts I'll be able to get as close to the maximum of executing my backhand shot as possible."
Djokovic has been undergoing various treatments to get fit for the US Open, where he begins the defence of his title against Poland's Jerzy Janowicz.
US Open: Men's draw details
His wife Jelena posted a picture on social media on Tuesday of the Serb's left wrist strapped in an electrified bandage.
"There are different methods of healing that I'm considering and consulting," Djokovic said.
"One of them is the physical therapy. What you have seen is the electricity treatments, trying to enhance the regeneration process of the wrist. So that's what it was.
"But sometimes the time is what you need as an athlete, and because the US Open is around the corner, I don't have too much time.
"I try to compensate and improvise as much as I can and find the best ways of getting myself properly ready."
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Novak Djokovic says his early Wimbledon exit was down to private issuesPA Sport


Even if Djokovic manages to fully recover physically, questions remain about his mental state given the 29-year-old's admission that "private issues" lurked in the background of his Wimbledon exit.
"I apologise but it's tough to go back now and talk about that," Djokovic said.
"It was nothing physical. It's not an injury. It was some other things that I was going through privately."
He added: "It is resolved and everything is fine. I am in a position, like everybody else, like all of you, we all have private issues and things that are more challenges than issues, more things that we have to encounter and overcome in order to evolve as a human being.
"That was the period for me. It happened right there. It was resolved and life is going on."
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Novak Djokovic (SRB) of Serbia reacts after losing his match against Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG) of ArgentinaReuters

 
I'm very confused by the ticket pricing for the US open. There are grounds admission tickets and then reserved tickets for Ashe, Armstrong & Grandstand... The reserved seat tickets can be used for everything the grounds ticket gets you.... But for most of the day's the reserved tickets can be purchased for cheaper than what grounds passes are going for. Unless I'm completely missing something this is so dumb. Why would anyone pay more for a grounds pass?
 
Went with Friedsam ML +175 and tailing BCs pick with Sakkari ML

will be on Baghs just waiting to see if the spread goes lower. Started out at -10 and now it's -9 + money n
 
ive come to the conclusion that if you are attending the u.s. open.... buying a grounds pass is most likely a very poor purchase.
 
Early matches

Fratangelo -160 4u
Kucova +165 and +3.5
Stakhovsky -155 2u
Escobedo -2.5 1u
Crawford +5 1u
Witthoeft +4 .5u
 
he's 1-0 H2H maybe that's why

Yeah I saw that but that doesn't show on wettpoint for some reason. I see most are on Benny. There all for me for now. Ramos has sucked at the us open.. 1-5 record

just noticed that tennisabstract gives the chance each player has to win based on their stats.
 
I use matchstat for H2H - that site is pretty good for matchups, etc. I'll have to take a look at tennisabstract when I get home.
 
Woz is straight fade material right now. what a joke. I knew I should have played Crawford bigger.
 
Next round of matches

Sevastova -150 and -2.5 (3u/1u)
Kuznetsova o18.5 1u
Bellis -145 1u
Lisicki -125 1u
Sakkari EV .5u
Nishioka +5 1u
 
someone on here had said something about Gasquet being good...well today was a primary example of him imploding. He has talent but he has no idea how to use it.
 
yeah it's nuts, if you saw earlier clips of Fed, he had the same temperament but boy did that change when he figured out how to be a bit more calm cool and collective.
Xavier Malisse was another guy with just the knack to make the game easy but the dude just went on temper tantrums all the time and never really flourished.
 
they're saying on tv that the new roof isnt going to have much of impact at all when its closed compared to other similar stadiums.... ashe will be completed covered in shade by 3 pm every day.... big equalizer
 
yeah it's nuts, if you saw earlier clips of Fed, he had the same temperament but boy did that change when he figured out how to be a bit more calm cool and collective.
Xavier Malisse was another guy with just the knack to make the game easy but the dude just went on temper tantrums all the time and never really flourished.


Just look at Andy....


Marriage & kids plays a huge role in tennis as well imo
 
Isner should have went to Rio.... would have helped him a lot


he just looks out of it and has little confidence... that happening to isner is a big problem
 
Not sure you can justify that price on Anderson the way he's playing (regardless if he wins or not). He's not in form to justify anywhere near that number IMO.
 
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