2016 MLB

[lindetrain]

As some of you may remember, I started up a site with a buddy a few years back called MLB Price Machine, which was a model used to identify bad opening MLB lines. After multiple years of agony betting these bad opening numbers and losing money, I decided last season to only bet the openers with the intention of later scalping (betting the other side and ensuring a profit regardless of results). Thus far it's been very successful, and I thought I'd start sharing them here with the hope it'll be of some benefit to those reading.

This may look like way too much of a grind/a waste of time to those of you with a bigger bankroll, but cranking out consistent winning days of anywhere from $20-200 isn't too bad in my book. I won't include what I've already made this season in this thread, but we'll just say my goal from this point to the end of the season is $10K in profit.

I have numerous outs here in Vegas with the mobile apps that are around town, but likely won't post the outs next to the bets. Feel free to message me if you need to know where I found a certain number.

 

[Play2win]

Yes sir, keep it rollin Linde

 

[lindetrain]

Wednesday 5/25:

904 STL +160 (Arrieta/Martinez) - $1000 / $1600
919 TOR -101 (Stroman/Nova) - $1010 / $1000
930 TB -162 (Nicolino/Andriese) - $1620 / $1000

 

[mrob]

very interesting GL

 

[scarf31]

Thanks for sharing this, Linde and look forward to following along throughout the season. BOL tonight :cheers3:

 

[lindetrain]

Thanks guys

:tiphat:

 

[RetroVK]

Glad to see you sharing, Lind and best of luck

 

[Indiana]

Good stuff, Linde. Looking forward to grinding out profits with you.

 

[Timh]

BOL Linde.

 

[Indiana]

Wednesday 5/25:

904 STL +160 (Arrieta/Martinez) - $1000 / $1600
919 TOR -101 (Stroman/Nova) - $1010 / $1000
930 TB -162 (Nicolino/Andriese) - $1620 / $1000

Is there a certain time or price you are looking to get on the scalp on the other side?

 

[lindetrain]

Thanks guys.

Adding:

912 LAD -160 (Straily/Kazmir) - $1600 / $1000

 

[lindetrain]

Is there a certain time or price you are looking to get on the scalp on the other side?

I usually have a general idea of when a number has hit its peak or bottomed out and will start to buy back at that point; I also have the added benefit of being able to watch the screen from work and see if a move is coming against me. There are other times where one shop may be offering a rogue number that's a nickel or so better than anywhere else in town; hard to pass when that opportunity presents itself as well.

 

[Indiana]

I usually have a general idea of when a number has hit its peak or bottomed out and will start to buy back at that point; I also have the added benefit of being able to watch the screen from work and see if a move is coming against me. There are other times where one shop may be offering a rogue number that's a nickel or so better than anywhere else in town; hard to pass when that opportunity presents itself as well.

Makes sense. Will you be posting the buyback price in this thread at some point tomorrow? Also, if you don't mind saying which screen do you use at work? SO, DB or SI?

 

[lindetrain]

Makes sense. Will you be posting the buyback price in this thread at some point tomorrow? Also, if you don't mind saying which screen do you use at work? SO, DB or SI?

Yes, I'll post those as well. I have SportsOptions.

 

[lindetrain]

Had a hunch something bad was going to happen when I started posting; naturally, going to take my biggest loss of the year by a wide margin on the first game. Not very smart to get in front of the Arrieta train.

903 CHC -190 - $1710 / $900

 

[lindetrain]

929 MIA +195 - $880 / $1716

This one going to salvage the day after the Arrieta disaster.

 

[lindetrain]

920 NYY +101 - $500 / $505
920 NYY +100 - $500 / $500

Looks like the best I'll do there, essentially breaking even.

 

[lindetrain]

Thursday 5/26:

957 TOR -102 (Happ/Sabathia) - $1020 / $1000

 

[lindetrain]

911 CIN +170 - $960 / $1632

Should be a small winning day, I'll take it.

 

[lindetrain]

Adding a little more to Happ tomorrow:

957 TOR +100 - $1000 / $1000

 

[lindetrain]

Wednesday 5/25 Recap:

904 STL +160 -$1000
903 CHC -190 +$900

912 LAD -160 +$1000
911 CIN +170 -$960

919 TOR -101 +$1000
920 NYY +101 -$500
920 NYY +100 -$500

929 TB -162 -$1620
930 MIA +195 +$1716

Total: +$36
YTD: +$36

 

[B.A.R.]

:shake2:

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

Thanks for sharing, Linde. GL :tiphat:

 

[lindetrain]

958 nyy +116 - $870 / $1009
958 nyy +115 - $500 / $575
958 nyy +112 - $500 / $560

 

[Play2win]

Go Yanks, GL Linde

 

[lindetrain]

Go Yanks, GL Linde

Doesn't matter to me who wins bud, as long as the game doesn't get rained out haha

:shake2:

 

[lindetrain]

Friday 5/27:

930 TEX -145 (Niese/Hamels) - $1450 / $1000

 

[lindetrain]

Thursday 5/26 Recap:

957 TOR -102 +$1000
957 TOR +100 +$1000
958 NYY +116 -$870
958 NYY +115 -$500
958 NYY +112 -$500

Total: +$130
YTD: +$166

 

[lindetrain]

Adding for tomorrow:

905 LAD +130 (Urias/deGrom) - $500 / $650

Just a small one here since there's a little uncertainty on what the market will think of Urias.

 

[cubsker]

I find your ideas intriguing and would like to subscribe to your newsletter

 

[shish_21]

What % of your bankroll are you using to make your initial position? I am assuming much higher because the risk is so small?

 

[RetroVK]

What % of your bankroll are you using to make your initial position? I am assuming much higher because the risk is so small?

Maybe not. He has to spread a lot of money to a lot of different places in order to shop the numbers so it might not be as large a % as we might originally think

 

[dogman]

If you go over to SBR and click on the Arbitrage Calculator you can plug in how much want to bet originally on your first bet(Bet no. #1) and later with the second or hedge bet(Bet no. #2). It will give you the profit you will make.

 

[Play2win]

GL today Linde

 

[lindetrain]

Gah, two moves against me in a matter of days. Another bad move on my part as Hamels was borderline anyway; hopefully a move comes on them later so I can save face a little bit.

Saturday 5/28:

975 HOU -124 (Keuchel/Weaver) - $1240 / $1000

Not done betting this one, I can tell you that.

 

[lindetrain]

If you go over to SBR and click on the Arbitrage Calculator you can plug in how much want to bet originally on your first bet(Bet no. #1) and later with the second or hedge bet(Bet no. #2). It will give you the profit you will make.

Thanks man, actually got my partner to create something similar on our MLBPM website, so I still use that.

 

[lindetrain]

What % of your bankroll are you using to make your initial position? I am assuming much higher because the risk is so small?

It's only about 5% on a $1K bet because as clowncar said, I have to spread money around to seven different outs. I can do this on less, but it would require me to make runs to the casinos to deposit/withdraw every day or two.

 

[lindetrain]

I find your ideas intriguing and would like to subscribe to your newsletter

LOL none of this even possible without cubsker

 

[lindetrain]

906 nym -110 - $594 / $540

 

[lindetrain]

More Astros for tomorrow...

975 HOU -124 - $2480 / $2000

Biggest play of the year.

 

[lindetrain]

929 PIT +130 - $1000 / $1300
929 PIT +128 - $65 / $83

Apparently a sharp group doubled pop the other side of this one; makes it tough. Losing day unless we can get some rain in Arlington.

 

[Local9]

Love it. One Question on the Astros game tomorrow (which I love by the way in general) : Is this a play you will ride with if the movement doesn't go in your direction? And even if you can grab the Angels at, say, +135 --will you buy out all your 'stros bet or will you only buy back a bit and lower that Hou play to like, say, -108? Thanks

Best of Luck

More Astros for tomorrow...

975 HOU -124 - $2480 / $2000

Biggest play of the year.

 

[dogman]

Linde, Would you recommend for anyone following to take a worse number than the one you played at. Of course it can only hurt long term but if played at a worse number how many cents off would be the max for betting---5 cents or less. Thanks

 

[lindetrain]

Love it. One Question on the Astros game tomorrow (which I love by the way in general) : Is this a play you will ride with if the movement doesn't go in your direction? And even if you can grab the Angels at, say, +135 --will you buy out all your 'stros bet or will you only buy back a bit and lower that Hou play to like, say, -108? Thanks

Best of Luck

As you can maybe tell by the amounts on each side, I generally bet to win or lose roughly the same amount regardless of the result. Tonight I had myself set up to win $40 or win $56 on the Dodgers game, and to lose $60 or lose $76 on the Rangers (not ideal of course). I rarely need one side to win for more than about $20.

 

[lindetrain]

Linde, Would you recommend for anyone following to take a worse number than the one you played at. Of course it can only hurt long term but if played at a worse number how many cents off would be the max for betting---5 cents or less. Thanks

Depends on the play. If you all want, I can start posting the worst number I'd make each play at.

When it comes to the Astros, I'd probably lay it all the way up to -135.

 

[lindetrain]

Adding for Saturday:

973 NYY -103 (Pineda/Moore) - $1030 / $1000

 

[lindetrain]

Friday 5/27 Recap:

905 LAD +130 -$500
906 NYM -110 +$540

930 TEX -145 -$1450
929 PIT +130 +$1300
929 PIT +128 +$83

Total: -$27
YTD: +$139

 

[scarf31]

Depends on the play. If you all want, I can start posting the worst number I'd make each play at.

When it comes to the Astros, I'd probably lay it all the way up to -135.

Linde, I for one am curious as to the worst numbers you'd make your plays if you wouldn't mind posting. A system like this needs extreme discipline, so my hat is off to you, sir. But I know a lot of guys want to know the "play no worse than" number...in bases it's good and in football it's huge. Just my 2 cents.

Enjoying following along and best of luck, my friend.

 

[lindetrain]

Man, really rough week.

974 TB -104 - $520 / $500
974 TB -105 - $525 / $500

 

[lindetrain]

976 LAA +122 - $1500 / $1830
976 LAA +120 - $1010 / $1212
976 LAA +123 - $500 / $615

Worst day of the year. Posting mush?