2015 Golf Pool Discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Decided to start this thread again. Some of you may remember I've posted this the last couple of years. The gist is this: Pick one golfer per week on PGA Tour. Money earned is point system. Once you use a golfer, that's it for the rest of the season. Our season runs from Honda to Tour Championship. Need north of $9 million in earnings to have a chance at the #1 slot, need over $5.5 million to get in the money. So far, I have not sniffed a payday. Any discussion or help is appreciated. Already three weeks in, but will try to update weekly from here on.


Tournament/Player/Result/Earnings:

Honda - Keegan Bradley - MC
WGC Cadillac - Bubba Watson - 3 - $540,000
Valspar - Brandt Snedeker - 53 - $13,469
API - Henrik Stenson - 2 - $680,400
Valero - Zach Johnson - 20 - $67,167
Shell Houston Open - Patrick Reed - 17 - $83,490
Masters - Jason Day - 28 - $68,000
Heritage - Webb Simpson - 51 - $14,072
Zurich - Justin Thomas - 12 - $115,920
WGC Matchplay - Paul Casey - 5 - $285,000
The Players - Jordan Spieth - MC
Wells Fargo - Phil Mickelson - 4 - $293,467
Colonial - Chris Kirk - 1 - $1,170,000
Byron Nelson - Jimmy Walker - 2 - $530,133
Memorial - Matt Kuchar - 26 - $45,880
Fed-Ex St Jude - Ryan Palmer - 22 - $54,086
U.S. Open - Rickie Fowler - MC
Traveler's - Billy Horschel - 25 - $41,234
Greenbrier - Kevin Kisner - 2 - $500,267
John Deere - Ryan Moore - 24 - $40,068
Open Championship - Adam Scott - 10 - $239,200
Canadian Open - Luke Donald - 74 - $11,078
Quicken Loans National - Justin Rose - 4 - $242,875
WGC Bridgestone - Hideki Matsuyama - 37 - $63,000
PGA Championship - Dustin Johnson - 7 - $293,000
Wyndham - Brooks Koepka - 6 - $174,825
Barclay's - Bill Haas -

​Total : $5,543,574
 
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One new wrinkle this year because of the schedule change is that the match play WGC event will be part of our pool. My basic strategy is to pick guys are in good form and have a solid course history. I think I've weighted course history too much in the past. There are only a few exceptions where course history can trump current form: Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker at the John Deere, Luke Donald at the Valspar, maybe a few others. I don't really worry about "saving" certain golfers for certain tournaments, but after playing for 2 years, I feel like I've had to settle for mediocre players during the FedEx playoffs, and those 4 tournaments have large purses with smaller fields, so will serve me well to have some better options. Another thing I'll try to avoid is picking a breakout player in a major, or big tournament. It just doesn't happen that often. I also don't worry too much about picking the same player as the majority of the pool. Trying to get too cute there can hurt as much as help, unless I get lucky and pick a guy who ends up winning.

Please feel free to comment
 
Schrute said:
That's a badass contest. I will be utterly useless but it sounds like fun
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It's a lot of fun. Keeps you entertained during the Valspars, Valeros, and the Greenbriers of the PGA season.
 
Finally got myself into one of these this year too. Off to a slow start.

Have Furyk this week.
 
Canes1 said:
Jimmy has a good history at this course.
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He was on my short list, but Furyk is strong at a lot of courses. Think his best chance of winning is with a field that's not quite as strong as this week's. I'm thinking Canadian Open the week after the British
 
All I can say about Snedeker is that he made the cut. What stings most is that for the second straight week, I originally picked the eventual winner, only to talk myself out of it at the last minute. In fact for Valspar, I went from Spieth to Ryan Moore, then to Sneds. For now on, once I make my pick, I'm sticking with it unless there is some major information that comes to light like an injury etc.
 
Debating between Stenson and Fowler this week. Stenson will probably be highest owned of anyone. Where you going?
 
I told myself all weekend I was taking Henrik unless he won, so I'm sticking with it. Especially after switching off of DJ and Spieth the last 2 weeks. You're right in that Stenson will likely be the top pick, but I've decided not to worry about that this year. If he wins, it's the right pick regardless of how many pick him. Other considerations were JB Holmes and Adam Scott, but after hearing Scott talk about how he can't putt slow greens right now, and how bad the greens are supposed to be at bay hill right now, I figure he's better left for another tournament. Plus, we've seen these runs from HS before, most notably late summer of 2013. That said, he'll probably miss the cut
 
Stuck with Stenson, along with around 30% of my pool. So won't make up much ground this week, but a win is still huge
 
TheLaw4 said:
Yeah I probably should have taken Stenson, but I ended up with Justin Thomas out of nowhere.
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Roll Tide. I think he'll get a win this year. But not sure it will be against such a strong field. Good luck though. Hope he wins if Stenson doesn't
 
I'd say that Bay Hill is gettable this week. Some great rounds being put together by some big names. -15 or better might be necessary to win
 
Henrik broke my heart with back to back 3 putts. Didn't know until this morning that he had been put on the clock just before those two holes, so I will blame the PGA here.

Decent field at Valero. Looking hard at Zach Johnson. Good finish at Bay Hill could indicate he's playing pretty well, and he has a great history at this course. Also on the radar are Furyk, Kuchar, Charley Hoffmann, Kevin Na, and Spieth. I made the point earlier that I think when Furyk breaks his win drought, it will be at a tournament like this. And it's hard not to save ZJ for Colonial or John Deere, but he was who I was thinking watching Bay Hill yesterday, and my first impression has been rock solid this year so far
 
I said ZJ has great history at this course, but I didn't realize his two Valero wins were at a different course in San Antonio. Still had T-6 last year, and think he's trending in the right direction. Between him and Furyk right now, but likely staying with ZJ
 
Already used Furyk (that didnt work well) and probably saving Zach for one of "his" events, so went with Kuch this week.

Who'd you decide on?
 
TheLaw4 said:
Already used Furyk (that didnt work well) and probably saving Zach for one of "his" events, so went with Kuch this week.

Who'd you decide on?
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I'm still on zach. Kuchar is my 2nd choice, but like I mentioned earlier, I've switched off 2 winners at the last minute, so I'm going to stick with my gut.
 
Zach Johnson farted away a decent finish by playing his last 12 holes in +6. Went from T2 to T20. 3 days of solid play undone in a couple of hours. That's the nature of the sport I guess.

Shell Houston Open has a decent field and course is generally set up somewhat similar to Augusta to entice some big names for their tune up. Have a working power ranking (in no particular order) of: Patrick Reed, Kuchar, Oosthuizen, JB Holmes, and Jordan Spieth. Based on the winning scores from the last few years, there are plenty of birdies available. Doesn't seem to favor a bomber or short game specialist really, so looking at guys who can make birdies. All of the guys mentioned are playing at least decently well. Kuchar, Oosthuizen, and Holmes also have solid track records at the course. Nobody playing better than Spieth right now, but thinking of saving him for another day. He MC last year in the middle of another great streak. Kuchar is playing ok, but has several top 10s here, and had a pretty good final round yesterday to get some momentum. Oosthuizen quietly playing well recently and has some good finishes here. Holmes has been a mainstay on leaderboards for the last 2 months until he MC at Bay Hill, might have just run out of gas. Really leaning Reed here as he can definitely fill the cup up. Part me though knows how dumb I'll feel if I don't pick Spieth and he ends up winning.
 
Like Reed too, but told myself I was going to use him at Match Play. Went a little off the board this week and took Stefani. Local guy, playing well, figured why not.
 
I thought about the Reed match play pick, but I promised myself I wouldn't pass on players for future tournaments. Got burned a few times in the last couple of years. Plus, the new format at the match play makes it even more of a crap shoot than usual.
 
Stuck with Reed. Almost took Spieth, but I didn't like the way he was talking about working on a different ball flight this week in prep for Augusta. Would like to choose him when he's 100% focused on the current tournament. Of course he'll still probably do well, and looking ahead is a risk with anyone in the field that is playing the Masters
 
Well two of the guys in my PR ended up in a playoff with JB taking it home. Reed had an uninspired round yesterday after getting into the top 10. I'm getting killed in the pool as first place is already over $4MM.

Best week of the golf year this week. First time in a few years I won't be going to a practice round, feel kind of empty inside. Limited, elite field with big payday means that all the top guys are in play. I imagine Rory will be a popular pick in the pool, but I don't like the way he's playing right now for Augusta. I do think Phil is trending in the right direction, but will pass on him. Jimmy Walker is intriguing, not sure he's right for this pool, but he'll almost certainly be in my DK lineup. Watching this weekend, I thought to myself that Holmes has a game that seems to fit ANGC, but looking at his career, he's only played it once, in 2007. Basically a newcomer. Hard to find someone playing better than Spieth, and for two years now I have found reasons not to pick him for tournaments, much to my detriment, but I still feel like he's not ready to win a major. I've been saying I'm picking Jason Day for a while, and I picked him to win last year, and I'm still good with that for now, but will continue to do more research.
 
TheLaw4 said:
Im using Day. He wins this week.
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:cheers3:

I'm warming up to the idea of using Rory. Forecast looks like plenty of rain all week. Rain soaked major courses worked out well for Rory at Valhalla and Congressional
 
For some reason I am leaning more towards Rose & Westwood if the weather stays as predicted
looks like Sat (Moving Day) 40% rain 80s & Sunday will be Sunny High 78 for a good finish.
 
ProV1Colt said:
For some reason I am leaning more towards Rose & Westwood if the weather stays as predicted
looks like Sat (Moving Day) 40% rain 80s & Sunday will be Sunny High 78 for a good finish.
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Westwood maybe, but Rose hasn't been very good this year and doesn't have a great history at ANGC.
 
I'm not sure I could have been more wrong on anything that transpired in Augusta this week. Day seemed like a good pick after 2 holes on Friday, when he was -6 and in 2nd. He played the rest of the tournament in +5 and torpedoed my chances. Not helping matters was that Spieth was the #1 pick in our pool. It's been 7 tournaments, and I already feel like I am out of it. 23 tourneys left though, my goal has to be to get in the money, and I have a lot of good golfers left. Aside from the pool, I did my best to fade Justin Rose wherever possible, and we'll just say that didn't work out too well. Incredible performance by Spieth this week and a deserving champion, but the hyperbole is a tad annoying. Jordan is actually slated to play Harbour Town this week. If he still plays, will be interesting to see what kind of hangover, if any, he has. Decent field here as all the RBC guys are required to play I'm sure, but most of the big names in this tournament come in after mediocre to poor performances at the Masters. Looking at Webb Simpson right now, but still researching. Furyk, Horschel, Kuchar, Spieth, Donald, Haas, Poulter are all in play as well
 
I don't know why I ever pick Webb Simpson. Especially this year as he struggles to play with a standard length putter for the first time in his competitive career. Making matters worse, I had Furyk picked until Wednesday night. That makes 3 times in 8 tournaments I've picked the winner only to change my pick at the last minute.

Zurich is a weird tournament. Field is weakest since January, and this tournament has a history of producing first time winners, sometimes out of nowhere. Justin Rose seems like an obvious choice, he has a nice track record at the course, and coming off a great Masters performance. He is sure to be the top pick in our pool. Dustin Johnson is another top-flight player playing well, but this is his first trip to NOLA that I can gather. Probably going to save these two for bigger tournaments. Steve Stricker is a possibility given his track record here and his light schedule, but since I've already burned Zach Johnson, Strick is penciled in to the John Deere. If Horschel had played better at Augusta, he'd be getting a hard look, but I'm going to wait on him to catch a heater as he's done the last two seasons. Looking at continuing the trend of first time winners, I've marked Morgan Hoffmann, Justin Thomas, and Brendon de Jonge. All 3 are playing pretty well and seem to be destined for a win sooner rather than later.
 
Forgot to come here last week and post my pick but I went a bit off the board and it worked out pretty well. My pool has 300+ entries and I'm back there a bit so I decided to start plucking under the radar guys and hope I hit a winner.

Haven't spent much time looking for this week but the highest up the list I will be going is English.
 
Looked some over lunch. I'm with you in leaning Hoffman and Thomas. But I already used Thomas so next lean is Berger. Will probably be between those two for me
 
I had Hoffmann picked until yesterday, so congratulations on your win. I went with Justin Thomas
 
Unlike last year, the favorites for every tournament seem to do very well each week. As predicted, Justin Rose was #1 pick in the pool. And he won. I haven't looked at it, but it seems that the winner of nearly every tournament so far has been one of the 2 or 3 most popular picks in the pool. I have a ton of ground to make up if I just want my money back. Doesn't seem there's any hope for me catching any of the leaders. Sucks when we are less than a third of the way through.

Have no idea how to approach the match play. There are several players who have consistently performed well in this event, like Hunter Mahan, but new course, new format. Ryder Cup/President's Cup success doesn't seem to be an accurate predictor here, and neither does world ranking. Luckily there is a guaranteed payday, so I guess I have as good a chance as anyone. Will have to dig deep here. Or just pick someone at random. Who knows
 
I decided a while back that I wanted Patrick Reed here. He's not in the best form, But I think I have stick with him because I would be too mad if I didn't and he wins. Great match play history
 
I can't really argue with the Patrick Reed pick. But, I've already burned him, so he's out for me.

The following can also be helpful for regular wagering IMO.

Did a little research this morning. TPC Harding Park has hosted 2 pertinent events, 2005 WGC and the 2009 President's Cup. In both instances, Tiger Woods was successful, winning the event in 2005, and going 5-0 for the winning US side in 2009. I know he's not playing, but maybe some insight as to what kind of golfer is successful here. Or maybe it's just because he was by far the best player in those events. Oddly enough, the '05 win was in a playoff over John Daly. Players who played that '05 tournament (which was stroke play FYI) and are in this field with result: Sergio (T3), Stenson (T3), McDowell (T6), Furyk (T15), Schwartzel (T18), Poulter (T18), Scott (T29), Jimenez (T41), Zach Johnson (T43), Westwood (T51), and of course, Thongchai Jaidee (60). Players in field who played in 2009 Pres Cup: ZJ (2-2, lost singles), Furyk (2-3, lost singles), Mahan (2-2, won singles), and Scott (1-4, lost singles). These results are obviously dated, and one was stroke play, but these players have at least played a competitive round at the course before.

With this format, I am looking to avoid players who have not fared well in match play in the past, as well as top players who I think it is reasonable to assume will contend in a stroke play event later in the season. Top seeds I am not considering for one or both of the reasons above: Rory, Fowler, DJ, Scott, Furyk, Spieth. Bubba, Stenson, Reed, and Day have already been used. Lean toward avoiding Rose coming off a win and not much past success in this event. I'm sure I will regret not going with Spieth, again, but I feel confident using him in a later event. Same with Rory, who tends to heat up in the summer. Fowler has done well here, and I'm not really counting on him later, but he's been so bad lately I want nothing to do with him.

While seeding doesn't really matter, the winner has come from the top 24 seeds in 13 of 16 previous editions. 6 of the last 8 champs have been in the top 9 seeds. The two outliers are Kuchar and Mahan (both 21 seeds) who have stellar records in the event. Likewise, the runner up has been in the bottom half of the seeding only twice, and none since 2002. Only 1 seed to win is Tiger times 3. Of the 16 winners, only Day, Tiger, and Stenson could be classified as long hitters. In fact, most of the winners are seen as accuracy players (Kuchar, Mahan, Donald, Poulter, Ogilvy, Toms, Stricker).

Given the above, here is my list of potential picks (so far): Kuchar, McDowell, Paul Casey, Mahan, Poulter, and I'll throw Spieth in there too, but like I said, I'm saving him for later. I considered Sergio as well, but his record in the event isn't great and there are plenty of tournaments later in the season that he performs well in.

While going through this research, I was surprised at how poor a match play player Adam Scott is. Given his putting issues this season, he seems like a good fade opportunity.
 
Some great stuff there. Thanks.

It's probably also worth looking at who each guy has in their pod. Some of them appear much tougher than others.
 
TheLaw4 said:
Some great stuff there. Thanks.

It's probably also worth looking at who each guy has in their pod. Some of them appear much tougher than others.
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Went over the bracket and groups over lunch. Rory's side looks to be weaker than the other. Think that they have by far the weakest of the top 16. The two best match play pod leaders, Rory and Bubba, got the hardest of the groups where nobody would be that surprised to see any of the 4 come out. I really like Graeme McDowell's draw. Grouped with Fowler, Lowry, and English. The round of 16 opponent could be tough, but I like Graeme against any of Bubba, Keegan, Oosthuizen or MAJ. Any potential winner from group 5 or 12 doesn't scare me either. Also like the draw for Paul Casey. He's grouped with Adam Scott, Chris Kirk, and F. Molinari. Scott skipped the event last year, and lost in the first round the three years before that, and his Pres Cup record isn't very good. Winner of that group gets winner of DJ's group. DJ also has a lackluster matchplay record. Casey has two runner up finishes in this event, though they were years ago. He also won the Euro tour matchplay in 2006. McDowell has a 2nd and a win in that event in 2012 and 2013. As an aside, Mikko Ilonen who got in when Mickelson WD is the reigning Euro matchplay champion.

Don't like that Kuchar and Mahan are in the same group. That will likely keep me away from either of them. Poulter has a potentially tough draw if he gets through the group stage, as does Spieth. Safe to say leaning G-Mac or Casey for the minute
 
Went with Paul Casey. He didn't look particularly sharp yesterday, only getting one birdie in 18 holes, but managed to win, or more accurately not lose, in extra holes. He's up against Adam Scott today, who looked pretty shaky yesterday. Already noted that he is a poor matchplay player.
 
Overall happy with my Casey pick. Only two players that were selected finished ahead of him, and I didn't really consider either, so all in all a good week. Big purse for the Players, so need a high finish to gain ground. Had it in my mind that I was taking Spieth this week, but leaning Rory right now after his play this weekend. He has a history of winning consecutive tournaments, and watching him yesterday, he is driving the ball beautifully and starting to make some putts. The 7 rounds in 5 days plus cross country flight is a concern though. Sergio, Rose, and Furyk are also on the radar
 
gps_3 said:
Went with Paul Casey. He didn't look particularly sharp yesterday, only getting one birdie in 18 holes, but managed to win, or more accurately not lose, in extra holes. He's up against Adam Scott today, who looked pretty shaky yesterday. Already noted that he is a poor matchplay player.
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if he didn't butcher the final few holes against rory I think he would have won the tournament.
 
Schrute said:
Idk, Rory has to be pretty exhausted
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It's my only concern picking him. He is only 26 as of today, and although a little younger, Spieth looked barely any worse for wear at the Heritage after winning in Augusta. Different players/circumstances/tournaments for sure, but I don't want to dismiss Rory solely because of possible fatigue
 
TheLaw4 said:
Same argument should be made in picking Furyk, plus he's nearly 20 years older
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Yes. He was on the radar, but I'm not taking him. I feel like he has a great history in this tournament, and they talked about all his top 10s here on golf channel this morning, but after doing some research, most of his high finishes were before 2008 or so. Last year was the anomaly of the last decade. It's either Spieth, Rory or Rose for me.
 
Agree. Ill probably go Spieth or Rory too. May consider Stenson or Matsuyama but I doubt it
 
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