2015-16 Bowl Fades/Strategies/Injuries/Suspensions

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Seems like we have had threads in previous years where we called attention to certain teams/conferences/situations/coaches/etc to either fade or back. Would like to see some thoughts in one thread to aid me in some capping of the teams and conferences I don't follow as much, because if I'm honest with myself, I will likely have at least one bet on every bowl game.

I'll start:

I would take out a second mortgage and put it on Alabama to win the natty :biggestfan:


Now that we have that out of the way. Note that I have done zero capping at this point and I reserve the right to change my mind or completely change course.

Teams I'm looking to back:

Tennessee
Arkansas
Oregon
Ole Miss
Houston
Stanford
most of the B1G and Pac 12

Teams I'm looking to fade:

the Big 12
Auburn
Florida
Ohio State
UNC


That's off the top of my head, will probably come up with more as I look into it more. So if anyone has injury/suspension news (I'm guessing that should be a separate thread), coaching issues, travel concerns etc, I'd love to hear about them. Good luck to us all and let's make it a profitable bowl system
 
Bowl teams w/ head coaching changes:

UGA
Memphis
BYU
Toledo
Bowling Green
Miami
Virginia Tech
Minnesota
USC


Some notable assistants with new jobs:

Kirby Smart (DC at Alabama)
tOSU's DC

I'm sure there are more, just doing this from memory
 
You want to make this into the suspensions thread too?

Should see 25-30 of those once semester breaks.
 
Offhand...playing the PAC 12 vs non power 5 conferences has been a good strategy.

Fading the MAC has also worked.
 
Ohio State DT Adolphus Washington arrested for solicitation. No word yet on any possible suspension
 
I seem to recall Joe Public had a Sagarin system that he posted for Bowl Season ... I googled "Sagarin Rating Bowl System" and came up with the following:

Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating (RANK Column) is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs. Put simply, scroll through every team in the Top 60 and fade every team that has a 60+ SOS rating.

One adjustment, if two teams are playing who have a SOS of 60+ in the top 60, you fade the team who has the worst SOS ranking (look at NEV as an ex
smile.png
.

Here are this years bowl game plays no matter what the lines are and once the rank and SOS are established, they stay as they are even if they change as the bowl games progress.

TCU (4, 84 SOS) over Boise State (8, 98 SOS)
Florida (2, 27 SOS) over Cincinnati (6, 63 SOS)
LSU (10, 16 SOS) over Penn State (20, 83 SOS)
Oregon State (15, 21 SOS) over BYU (29, 77 SOS)
California (33, 17 SOS) over Utah (35, 73 SOS)
Miami-FL (11, 18) over Wisconsin (36, 68 SOS)
Troy (69, 106 SOS) over Central Michigan (38, 111 SOS)
Air Force (55, 92 SOS) over Houston (46, 97 SOS)
Arkansas (16, 13 SOS) over East Carolina (50, 61 SOS)
South Florida (51, 62 SOS) over Northern Illinois (87, 121 SOS)
Central Florida (61, 85 SOS) over Rutgers (52, 100 SOS)
Wyoming (99, 57 SOS) over Fresno State (57, 74 SOS)
Missouri (47, 50 SOS) over Navy (54, 74 SOS)
Nevada (56, 82 SOS) over SMU (88, 90 SOS)


I think that the above was from the 2010 bowl season but could be wrong. If anyone remembers better than I do, please delete this post and use the better system.
 
Robert Nkemdiche fell from a 4th story window. Extent of injuries is unknown at this time.
 
<header class="header" id="yui_3_18_1_1_1450039674534_1053" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 10px; overflow: hidden; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', HelveticaNeue, helvetica, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 16.25px;">[h=1]Report: Robert Nkemdiche 'stable' after apparent 15-foot fall[/h]</header> <cite class="byline vcard top-line" id="yui_3_18_1_1_1450039674534_1047" style="font-style: normal; line-height: 12.1px;">By Nick Bromberg<abbr id="yui_3_18_1_1_1450039674534_1046" style="display: block;">30 minutes ago</abbr></cite>Dr. Saturday








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Ole Miss defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche was reportedly injured when he went through a hotel window in Atlanta on Saturday night.
<iframe id="twitter-widget-1" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="true" class="twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered" data-tweet-id="676117967344660480" title="Twitter Tweet" style="display: block; margin: 10px auto; max-width: 500px; position: static; visibility: visible; width: 500px; height: 203.766px; padding: 0px; border-style: none; border-width: initial; min-width: 220px; clear: both;"></iframe>According to Zach Klein of WSB in Atlanta, Nkemdiche was in stable condition at the hospital and was conscious when found by police. He also fell 15 feet, per police.
<iframe id="twitter-widget-2" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="true" class="twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered" data-tweet-id="676130600332472320" title="Twitter Tweet" style="display: block; margin: 10px auto; max-width: 500px; position: static; visibility: visible; width: 500px; height: 203.766px; padding: 0px; border-style: none; border-width: initial; min-width: 220px; clear: both;"></iframe>
Police details on Robert Nkemdiche incident:
At approximately 2318 hours, Zone Two units responded to a person injured call where a male had fallen from a hotel room window. Upon arrival, the victim was conscious and breathing. He was transported to Grady Memorial and was in stable condition. Inside the hotel room, units located a small amount of suspected marijuana. The window was also broken out. It appears that the victim broke the window and then walked approximately 15 feet and climbed over a wall and fell approximately 15 feet. GI Squad and the Narcotics Unit responded to the scene along with the Crime Scene Unit.
​
Nkemdiche, a junior, is considered a likely top pick in the 2016 NFL draft if he declares.
It's the second scary event for the Nkemdiche family in less than a month. His brother Denzel was in the intensive care unit at a Mississippi hospital in November. He was found on Nov. 16 and subsquently admitted to the hospital. Later that week Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze said Denzel's condition was not life-threatening and he was improving.
Robert Nkemdiche has 26 tackles and three sacks in 2015. He suffered a concussion while playing offense against Memphis and missed two games.
This post will be updated when new information becomes available.
 
6-6 teams are 26-15 ATS against teams that have won 8 games or more. Under is also 26-15. Number rises to 6-2 ATS against teams with 10 wins or more
 
Oklahoma CB Jordan Thomas arrested for "failure to appear" for traffic violation. No word on his availability, but this seems to be common. Having been suspended on two other occasions this year, it will be interesting to see how the All-Big12 DB is handled for their playoff push.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Oklahoma CB Jordan Thomas arrested for "failure to appear" for traffic violation. No word on his availability, but this seems to be common. Having been suspended on two other occasions this year, it will be interesting to see how the All-Big12 DB is handled for their playoff push.
Click to expand...

Do people get arrested for not going to court to pay a speeding ticket or a parking ticket? Just seems that there's more to the story than just a "traffic violation." DUI or reckless driving could be called traffic violations. Even with two previous suspensions this season, I bet he plays. Stoops needs to win a game that matters in January
 
Agree with both points. As much is made of preferential treatment for athletes, Stoops needs him and will find a way to dress the young man. As far as warrants for speeding, I would assume multiple tickets would need to go unpaid to call out a search.
 
Alan Tongue said:
6-6 teams are 26-15 ATS against teams that have won 8 games or more. Under is also 26-15. Number rises to 6-2 ATS against teams with 10 wins or more
Click to expand...

UConn, Washington, Auburn. Looks like 2-1 because I've already started spending my Memphis +3 ticket winnings.

How about 5-7 Nebraska against 8-4 UCLA - would think that applies as well.
 
Judge Smails said:
I seem to recall Joe Public had a Sagarin system that he posted for Bowl Season ... I googled "Sagarin Rating Bowl System" and came up with the following:

Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating (RANK Column) is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs. Put simply, scroll through every team in the Top 60 and fade every team that has a 60+ SOS rating.

One adjustment, if two teams are playing who have a SOS of 60+ in the top 60, you fade the team who has the worst SOS ranking (look at NEV as an ex
smile.png
.

Here are this years bowl game plays no matter what the lines are and once the rank and SOS are established, they stay as they are even if they change as the bowl games progress.

TCU (4, 84 SOS) over Boise State (8, 98 SOS)
Florida (2, 27 SOS) over Cincinnati (6, 63 SOS)
LSU (10, 16 SOS) over Penn State (20, 83 SOS)
Oregon State (15, 21 SOS) over BYU (29, 77 SOS)
California (33, 17 SOS) over Utah (35, 73 SOS)
Miami-FL (11, 18) over Wisconsin (36, 68 SOS)
Troy (69, 106 SOS) over Central Michigan (38, 111 SOS)
Air Force (55, 92 SOS) over Houston (46, 97 SOS)
Arkansas (16, 13 SOS) over East Carolina (50, 61 SOS)
South Florida (51, 62 SOS) over Northern Illinois (87, 121 SOS)
Central Florida (61, 85 SOS) over Rutgers (52, 100 SOS)
Wyoming (99, 57 SOS) over Fresno State (57, 74 SOS)
Missouri (47, 50 SOS) over Navy (54, 74 SOS)
Nevada (56, 82 SOS) over SMU (88, 90 SOS)


I think that the above was from the 2010 bowl season but could be wrong. If anyone remembers better than I do, please delete this post and use the better system.
Click to expand...
Not sure if I'm misreading this post but it didn't work during the 2009-10 Bowl season. Lower SOS team held their own more often than not.
 
CrimsonK said:
UConn, Washington, Auburn. Looks like 2-1 because I've already started spending my Memphis +3 ticket winnings.

How about 5-7 Nebraska against 8-4 UCLA - would think that applies as well.
Click to expand...

can't judge on 5-7 teams as it's a new thing

one of the times the 6-6 didn't cover was the 2012 Belk Bowl
 
By Clay Travis<time class="byline-timestamp" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 7px 0px 0px; color: rgb(127, 127, 127); line-height: 0.95; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 12px; display: block;">Dec 14, 2015 at 5:49p ET</time>

On Sunday, Ole Miss star football player Robert Nkemdiche fell from an Atlanta hotel room after breaking through double glass windows. Nkemdiche, who was taken to a hospital after the fall, was charged with possession of less than an ounce of marijuana following the police's discovery of approximately seven rolled marijuana cigarettes inside the fourth-floor hotel room.
Outkick has since learned through multiple sources that Nkdemiche's fall was the result of his use of synthetic cannabinoids — frequently called "synthetic marijuana" or "fake weed" — which has become an increasingly popular drug among athletes — and college students — because it doesn't show up on drug tests. But unlike traditional marijuana, synthetic marijuana, made with processed chemicals of varying substances and quantities, can lead to paranoia, delusion and hallucinations.
According to the National Institute on Drug Abuse: "Synthetic cannabinoids refer to a growing number of man-made mind-altering chemicals that are either sprayed on dried, shredded plant material so they can be smoked (herbal incense) or sold as liquids to be vaporized and inhaled in e-cigarettes and other devices (liquid incense).






"These chemicals are called cannabinoids because they are related to chemicals found in the marijuana plant ... they are often marketed as "safe," legal alternatives to that drug. In fact, they may affect the brain much more powerfully than marijuana; their actual effects can be unpredictable and, in some cases, severe or even life-threatening."
Outkick has been told that Nkemdiche, after using the synthetic cannabinoids, was paranoid and convinced someone was chasing the 6-foot-4, 296-pound defensive tackle when he broke through his hotel room windows and plummeted more than 15 feet to the ground. Had Nkemdiche not landed on a bush outside the hotel, his injuries would have been much more severe.
At the time he was loaded into the ambulance, Nkemdiche was so disoriented he was unable to provide his name, address, or any explanation for why he'd fled his hotel room.
The official investigation is still ongoing, according to the police report.
Nkemdiche's troubles with synthetic cannabinoids mirror his older brother Denzel's struggles with the same product. Denzel, a senior linebacker on Ole Miss, was hospitalized after he was found near the edge of the roof of his off-campus town home, wrapped in a blanket, terrified that someone was after him, Outkick has learned. Denzel missed the final two games of the season.
Robert Nkemdiche, a potential top-10 pick in this spring's NFL Draft, has yet to return to Ole Miss' campus, but has spoken with coach Hugh Freeze by phone.
The Ole Miss Rebels play Oklahoma State in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1. They have yet to make a determination about Nkemdiche's status for that bowl game.
 
Baylor will start sophomore Chris Johnson at quarterback against the North Carolina Tar Heels in the Russell Athletic Bowl on Dec. 29, Bears coach Art Briles told the Orlando Sentinel.

Briles had been waiting to see if true freshman Jarrett Stidham had recovered enough from the broken bone in his foot to begin practicing.

"It doesn't look like he's going to be ready," Briles said Monday, according to the Sentinel.
Click to expand...

http://espn.go.com/college-football...aylor-bears-quarterback-russell-athletic-bowl
 
Massive blow for Duke, ACC defensive player of year:

Duke safety Jeremy Cash has been ruled out of the Pinstripe Bowl againstIndiana after undergoing wrist surgery, the school announced.
“We’re all certainly disappointed for Jeremy, especially in the sense that he’ll miss being on the field with his teammates for his final game in a Duke uniform,” head coach David Cutcliffe said in a press release. “It’s really just so unfortunate because of the type of competitor, teammate and leader he is for our program. Jeremy’s incredible collegiate career should not have ended in Winston-Salem, but it did. As with every young man in our locker room, his health is what is most important. Going forward, we must continue our preparation for Indiana, and I know our team—and especially our defense—will embrace the challenge.”


Cash was a unanimous All-America team selection. He finishes his career at Duke with 333 career tackles, eight sacks and six interceptions in 39 games. He holds the school record with 16 forced fumbles in his three years at Duke.
This season, he recorded 101 tackles, 18.0 tackles for lost yardage, 2.5 sacks and three forced fumbles.
Red shirt junior Corbin McCarthy will likely fill Cash's void for the Blue Devils' bowl game.
 
Devin Lauderdale, Texas Tech WR suspended for bowl. Looks like he was 2nd on team in catches and yards
 
UPDATE: Tom Groeschen reports that Bearcats starting quarterback Gunner Kiel is dealing with a personal matter and will not make the team's trip to Hawaii for its bowl game Dec. 24.
 
Frank Costanza said:
UPDATE: Tom Groeschen reports that Bearcats starting quarterback Gunner Kiel is dealing with a personal matter and will not make the team's trip to Hawaii for its bowl game Dec. 24.
Click to expand...

Rumor is prescription pills abuse/addiction
 
Lareux said:
Which were probably fed to him by the team doctor, so that he could come back earlier than he should have from some injury.
Click to expand...

What Tubs would call a "neck" injury. Even though the whole world knew he was concussed, again.
 
Baylor RB and WR Shock Linwood and Corey Coleman ruled out to go with the earlier announcement of Stidham. This is massive. UNC is still a dog, take them while you can.
 
Nkemdiche suspended for sugar bowl. College career likely over
 
jamal carter, starting safety for miami, was sent home. big loss for canes. he got thrown out of 2h vs neb. neb scored a ton in the 2h. he then missed 1h next wk vs cincy, when cincy scored a ton.
 
Can confirm @PriceAtkinson report: Clemson WR Deon Cain, TE Jay Jay McCullough & K Ammon Lakip sent home from Orange Bowl. Failed drug test.
 
WVU’s Dana Holgorsen announces CB Daryl Worley, DE Eric Kinsey, WR Jovon Durante, S Kevin Williams academically ineligible for @Cactus_Bowl
 
Alabama DB Tony Brown sent home for violation of team rules. Backup CB, but was great on coverage units. Million dollar talent, 10 cent head. Wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't come back
 
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