I think if, as usual, the lowest scoring group (sub-2.00 gpg) makes itself known & the knockout matches deliver their expect sub-3.00 gpg average, then the current gpg average will make the dip we expect to happen, but there's no reason to think it can't - as a non-Euro/non-African venue - deliver a final number anywhere between 2.70 & 3.00 gpg. The last 2 cups treated us harshly scoring wise. What's going on now is, as much as anything, a correction.
In the week since that comment, things have gone pretty much as I think were widely expected.
The 1st round of (16) group games had a
3.06 gpg avg., where the 2nd round's current 13 games have delivered a
2.77 gpg avg., for an overall avg. of
2.93 gpg. Just to repeat, Mexico in 1970 has the highest avg. (@
2.97 gpg) of a modern era WC.
Some things to highlight as we've gotten deeper, and teams have become more specifically aware variously of what they've got to do to qualify or become aware they've little-to-no hope of qualifying.
1st Half results
1st Round ... 2nd Round
Favs: 6 ..... Favs: 2
Dogs: 4 ..... Dogs: 4
Draw: 6 ..... Draw: 7
2nd Half results
1st Round ... 2nd Round
Favs: 9 ..... Favs: 5
Dogs: 3 ..... Dogs: 0
Draw: 4..... Draw: 8
AllHalf results combined
1st Round ... 2nd Round
Favs: 15 ...... Favs: 7
Dogs: 7 ...... Dogs: 4
Draw: 10 ..... Draw: 15
Looking at these results (keeping in mind there's still 3 games to go in the 2nd round):
1st halves
Biggest change from the 1st to 2nd round is the favs have traded leading at half-time to finding themselves settling for drawn situations.
2nd halves
The outstanding stat here is that
not a single dog has won a 2nd half so far in a 2nd round game (USA!
USA? USA). But the favs haven't been taking up the slack, with their rate for winning 2nd halves dropping off as well (38.4% vs. 56.2% in the 1st Rd). 2nd half draws have killed it to a greater degree that in any other 1st or 2nd Rd half so far. And of course 2nd half draws mean the result @half-time has cemented itself as the full-time result.
(FTR - no dog has actually won a 2nd half going back 22 games. Italy over England was the last dog to do so, and hindsight tells us Italy shouldn't have been the dogged for that game. Costa Rica putting 3 past Uruguay was the last "real" dog to win a 2nd half, and that match took place early on day 3.)
Overall
Both favs & dogs fortunes re winning either particular half have given way in some force to drawn efforts ruling the day.
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As far as some other trends go -
In the first 5 days of the tournament (14 games), there were
7 games with a goal or goals scored before before the 20th minute, and
9 games with a goal or goals scored after the 77th minute. Those 14 games went
12-2 to Over, averaging
3.14 gpg.
Over the last 5 days (15 games), there have been
2 games with a goal or goals scored before the 20th minute, and
4 games with a goal/goals scored after the 77th minute. These 15 games have gone
8-7 to Over, averaging
2.73 gpg.
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In the first 12 games of the tournament,
7 teams managed to tally at least 3 goals in a game. These 12 games averaged
3.42 gpg.
Over the last 17 games, only
3 teams have managed to tally at least 3 goals in a game. These 17 games have averaged
2.59 gpg.
It's here where we really identify why this tourament is slipping back into a "normal" scoring rate. It wasn't that scoring was up all across the board (9 teams in those first 12 games still scored 1 goal or less), but rather that some teams in particular (one immediately thinks of Holland over Spain) were knocking them in at a very healthy rate. This 2.59 figure is right in the ballpark of what 7 of the last 8 World Cups averaged prior to the 2006 WC.
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Favourites scoring first have tallied
11 wins,
2 losses &
1 draw.
Dogs scoring first have tallied
6 wins,
5 losses &
1 draw.
One thing that rarely changes in football is the first scoring teams chances of losing. It's always been low, it'll always remain low. So as I look at the numbers above, it strikes me that the dog rate for losing SU after scoring first is quite high. I'd certainly expect the dog's numbers to represent more draws than losses upon scoring first
than they currently do. That's the most anomalistic stat for this category at this point in the Cup.
