Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
A few brief words on tiers. They are becoming more popular, so most people already understand them. I group players into tiers to maximize value of picks round-by-round. The goal is not to pinpoint certain players in drafts and target only those players. Of course there will be certain guys that you might hope to get at some point in the draft, but it's better to ignore names and rely on your tiers. Group players together who you think could have similar stats, and the goal is to get the last player available from that tier.
Onto the TE position…
I usually don’t spend much analysis on the TE position, but this year is worth a closer look. There are more guys at the top who could be in consideration in the early rounds. However, the position is still deep enough to wait if you miss out on the elite options. My strategy this year is to consider grabbing Graham in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] round. But if I miss out on him, I’ll probably be able to wait until rounds 8-12 to select a Tier 3 TE. TE’s generally don’t produce much, so it’s better to take a risk on a young guy with potential to break out. If you totally miss on him, you could always grab a guy off waivers (Kelce, Clay, G. Graham, Allen).
Tier 1
Graham
Graham is on another level. He is a consensus first round pick. Pending league format and rules, Graham should be considered beginning at #4 overall.
Tier 2
J Thomas
Cameron
Another small tier. I don’t see these guys catching Graham. Thomas eventually could, but his sample size is still too small to put him in Tier 1. Generally speaking, I think Thomas is going a bit too high in round 2. Cameron’s value is hard to predict. Gordon is gone, which means more opportunities for Cameron. But also, defenses can now focus more on him. I still think he is an elite level talent who can beat double teams. Without Gordon, also, Cameron is the #1 threat in the redzone. Uncertainty at QB is an issue, but remember he still dominated with Jason Campbell at QB.
Tier 3
Gronk
Ertz
Reed
Rudolph
“Gonk” won’t be on any of my teams. I respect his talent, so I still rank him high. If he’s there in round 7/8, I’ll take him. There’s probably no chance of that happening, though. He can’t seem to stay healthy. I think he is on steroids, which have destroyed his body. Too risky for me.
Ertz and Reed are in similar situations—young guys who should benefit immensely after a year of experience under their belt. They are both in great, pass-friendly systems. I wouldn’t be surprised if either finished top-3 at the position. Rudolph will be Bridgewater’s best friend. 65-700-7 might be his floor.
The ADP’s of Ertz, Reed, and Rudolph are so low. I’m targeting all those guys, and I’ll probably get whoever falls furthest.
Tier 4
These guys have question marks, but are nice back end options.
Witten
Pitta
Green
V Davis
Olsen
Bennett
Ebron
Witten is 32, but still producing at a high level. He’s still the #2 option in the passing game. The emergence of Williams could cap his value some. I certainly don’t expect 8 TD’s again this season. I’d rather gamble on a younger guy.
Pitta did some good stuff when he returned from injury last season. Kubiak loves utilizing the TE position. The addition of Daniels could cap his value some, though. He’s solid, but his upside isn’t as high as the guys above him.
I’m ok if someone wants to take a gamble on Green. He has top-5 upside if he gets an opportunity. Gates could go down at any moment during the season. I never wish injury on a player, but it would be nice to hear some negative reports on Gates in camp.
There are just too many options in the SF pass game to count on Davis. If Crabtree stays healthy, he will be the #1 option. Conversely, there are no options in the Carolina pass game, so Olsen should fall into TE1 stats.
Ebron probably won’t have an immediate impact in his first year, but the potential in that offense is there. If you’re in a very deep league, I’d rather take a chance on him and hope he hits. His stock could rise once camp reports come out.
Onto the TE position…
I usually don’t spend much analysis on the TE position, but this year is worth a closer look. There are more guys at the top who could be in consideration in the early rounds. However, the position is still deep enough to wait if you miss out on the elite options. My strategy this year is to consider grabbing Graham in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] round. But if I miss out on him, I’ll probably be able to wait until rounds 8-12 to select a Tier 3 TE. TE’s generally don’t produce much, so it’s better to take a risk on a young guy with potential to break out. If you totally miss on him, you could always grab a guy off waivers (Kelce, Clay, G. Graham, Allen).
Tier 1
Graham
Graham is on another level. He is a consensus first round pick. Pending league format and rules, Graham should be considered beginning at #4 overall.
Tier 2
J Thomas
Cameron
Another small tier. I don’t see these guys catching Graham. Thomas eventually could, but his sample size is still too small to put him in Tier 1. Generally speaking, I think Thomas is going a bit too high in round 2. Cameron’s value is hard to predict. Gordon is gone, which means more opportunities for Cameron. But also, defenses can now focus more on him. I still think he is an elite level talent who can beat double teams. Without Gordon, also, Cameron is the #1 threat in the redzone. Uncertainty at QB is an issue, but remember he still dominated with Jason Campbell at QB.
Tier 3
Gronk
Ertz
Reed
Rudolph
“Gonk” won’t be on any of my teams. I respect his talent, so I still rank him high. If he’s there in round 7/8, I’ll take him. There’s probably no chance of that happening, though. He can’t seem to stay healthy. I think he is on steroids, which have destroyed his body. Too risky for me.
Ertz and Reed are in similar situations—young guys who should benefit immensely after a year of experience under their belt. They are both in great, pass-friendly systems. I wouldn’t be surprised if either finished top-3 at the position. Rudolph will be Bridgewater’s best friend. 65-700-7 might be his floor.
The ADP’s of Ertz, Reed, and Rudolph are so low. I’m targeting all those guys, and I’ll probably get whoever falls furthest.
Tier 4
These guys have question marks, but are nice back end options.
Witten
Pitta
Green
V Davis
Olsen
Bennett
Ebron
Witten is 32, but still producing at a high level. He’s still the #2 option in the passing game. The emergence of Williams could cap his value some. I certainly don’t expect 8 TD’s again this season. I’d rather gamble on a younger guy.
Pitta did some good stuff when he returned from injury last season. Kubiak loves utilizing the TE position. The addition of Daniels could cap his value some, though. He’s solid, but his upside isn’t as high as the guys above him.
I’m ok if someone wants to take a gamble on Green. He has top-5 upside if he gets an opportunity. Gates could go down at any moment during the season. I never wish injury on a player, but it would be nice to hear some negative reports on Gates in camp.
There are just too many options in the SF pass game to count on Davis. If Crabtree stays healthy, he will be the #1 option. Conversely, there are no options in the Carolina pass game, so Olsen should fall into TE1 stats.
Ebron probably won’t have an immediate impact in his first year, but the potential in that offense is there. If you’re in a very deep league, I’d rather take a chance on him and hope he hits. His stock could rise once camp reports come out.
