Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
Updated 8/29/14
A few brief words on tiers. They are becoming more popular, so most people already understand them. I group players into tiers to maximize value of picks round-by-round. The goal is not to pinpoint certain players in drafts and target only those players. Of course there will be certain guys that you might hope to get at some point in the draft, but it's better to ignore names and rely on your tiers. Group players together who you think could have similar stats, and the goal is to get the last player available from that tier.
Onto the RB position…
This is one of the more challenging years to rank RB’s for many reasons. First, there are very few workhorse RBs who are 3 down backs who dominate carries. Also, there are many 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year RBs in line for major roles, and we only have a small sample size on these players. Recent history has told us that second year running backs often do not fare well. Finally, you hear it all the time…this is a passing league. WRs are scoring just as much, if not more, than even the best RBs. The WRs at the top of the rankings are safer and more consistent than the RBs at the top of the rankings.
For these reasons, I’ve devalued the RB position in 2014. If you have a top-3 pick, you have to secure a top-3 RB. If not, I don’t think I’d touch a RB until rounds 3 or 4. Instead, I’m taking Graham and/or safe, dominant WRs early. Then, I’ll draft a bunch of RBs in the middle and later rounds and hope to hit on 2. With WRs scoring more, it’s a no brainer to use a WR at FLEX even if it’s not a PPR league. So the goal is just to get lucky on 2 RBs out of the 7 or 8 that I’ll draft.
I will list the tiers and provide some individual player previews. These tiers are very preliminary and will change often, especially during camp when some of these depth charts get finalized. These are PPR rankings. PPR won’t change the rankings for RBs too much. Vereen, Bush, Woodhead, and Sproles have the most significant jump in value. But their lower rushing totals balance that out, giving them only a few spots jump in PPR rankings compared to standard leagues.
Tier 1
[TABLE="width: 90"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]McCoy7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Charles6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Peterson10[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
These are the consensus top-3. I’m lowest on AP because of age/workload concerns and the fact that the other guys will likely provide more in the receiving game (though there are reports that say the Vikings want to get AP more involved in the pass game). I’d go McCoy at #1 overall because the Eagles offense has more weapons than KC, so defenses can’t key in on McCoy like they can on Charles. That’s a minor nick on Charles, though, and you could argue for any of these three as #1 overall.
Tier 2
[TABLE="width: 98"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Lacy9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Murray*11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Forte9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ball4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ellington4
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Here’s where it gets complicated. Lacy and Ball have all the potential in the world in perhaps the best 2 offenses in the NFL. But they are 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year running backs, who have small sample sizes. The numbers on 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year RBs are not good. Here is a great article on that: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/47008/311/second-year-running-backs?pg=1.
My guess as to why 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year running backs struggle is two-fold. First, offensive lines consistently change, which impacts the running game year by year. 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year backs are still working on their vision and cuts before hitting the line of scrimmage, so they need consistency from their O-line. Second, the surprise element of unknown rookie players is gone. Teams have a full year to scout these RBs and exploit their weaknesses. The point is, predicting their success in year two is difficult. Therefore, I can’t justify taking these 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year guys with valuable first and second round picks because of the risk factor.
Foster has huge workload/injury concerns, but he’s in a nice bounce back position. With no QB, the Texans should continue to ride Foster to the ground. Furthermore, Tate is gone and has been replaced with Andre Brown—not really a third down guy. So Foster should continue to see a good sized workload (if he remains healthy). Murray has never played a full season, but his YPC numbers are amazing. If healthy, he’s easily a top-5 runner. It appears Dunbar will be the clear backup, too. So you can handcuff Dunbar in the later rounds to protect your investment in Murray.
I currently have Stacy penciled in as the Rams bell cow RB, but reports are all over the place in St. Louis. It’s a situation to monitor in camp. If he’s facing competition, Stacy could fall way down in the tiers.
Lynch and Forte scare me with age and workload concerns. Neither will be on my teams. Bernard and Ellington are coming into 2014 with similar amounts of hype. In round 3 or 4, I’d probably grab either, especially in PPR leagues. Their values are only rising, though, and both could be drafted earlier.
Overall, every player in Tier 2 has question marks. It’s too big of a risk to take any of them in the early rounds.
Tier 3
[TABLE="width: 95"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 95"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 98"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]D Martin*7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bernard4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gerhart11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]J Bell9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lynch4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]L Bell12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Stacy4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]R Bush9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]A Morris10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mathews10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vereen*10[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
This is probably the most important tier for my rankings because this is where the bulk of my RBs will come from. I look for two things when ranking RBs: opportunity and potential. That’s what this tier represents.
Bell is being over-drafted in round 2. His YPC was awful in 2013, he’s an infamous 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year RB, and Pitt also brought in Blount, who could possibly steal some goal line touches. Bell is a bulk carry runner, meaning that he needs a lot of carries to produce fantasy points due to his lack of YPC and lack of explosion. However, Pitt is looking to have a more open attack, so Bell may not get the carries he needs to produce like a low end RB1, which is how he’s being drafted. His underrated receiving ability helps him in PPR, but I still don’t think he’s a borderline 1[SUP]st[/SUP] round pick.
TRich could be in line for a nice bounce back. I listed him as a sleeper here: http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum...all-2014-Breakouts-Busts-Sleepers-and-Rookies
Gerhart is the definition of an opportunity RB. He goes to Jacksonville, who wants to pound the rock, and he should be the lead back there. He should easily see 250+ carries. So even if he’s bad (3.5 YPC), he should still fall into 850+ rushing yards. He’s also shown some ability in the receiving game, and he could reach 30 catches. That would put him over 1,000 total yards (with conservative projections). There is no one on the Jags who will operate as the goal-line back, so that job should be his as well. In 2013, the Jaguars, as a team, scored 7 rushing touchdowns, all of which could go to Gerhart in 2014. His 4[SUP]th[/SUP] round ADP seems fair.
I really like the Detroit RBs this year in a new system that should be reminiscent of the Saints attack. Both should have value. Bush is getting older, so I believe Detroit will begin to view him strictly as a receiver in the slot (Sproles role). He’s in line to catch 70-80 passes in 2014. Bell is coming off a strong 2013. I believe Detroit will use Bell as more of a runner (Pierre Thomas role). If healthy, he could surpass 200 carries. He’s also coming off back to back 50+ catch seasons. Riddick could steal numbers from both of these guys, so it’s another camp situation to monitor. The contracts of Bush and Bell, however, should keep them on the field plenty as long as they remain healthy (an issue for both players).
Vereen’s ranking is tentative based on his health. I read a report that said he’s still not 100%, which is concerning by now. But these are the Patriots, so we probably won’t receive honest updates. So it’s important that he’s actually on the field in camp and pre-season. Ridley will have a short leash if his fumbling continues, so Vereen could be in line for more rushing stats. He was already on pace for huge receiving numbers in 2013.
Tier 4
[TABLE="width: 90"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 98"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]J Hill4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gore8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Spiller9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]P Thomas6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Woodhead10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ingram6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tate4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pierce11[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
This is a tier with players to monitor during camp. I’m not sure what the San Diego offense will look like in 2014. Despite a decent/healthy 2013, Matthews still has an injury history that keeps him lower in the rankings. Plus, the team brought in Donald Brown, which tells me they don’t trust Mathews to be a bell cow RB. I don’t expect Woodhead’s role to change. He’s the receiving back, who only has value in PPR leagues.
The Bengals RB situation needs to be monitored in camp. If Green-Ellis is cut, rookie Hill’s value increases. Sankey is another rookie who could make an immediate impact in 2014, but that backfield to me looks like a committee with Greene and McCluster. Sankey is being over-drafted in the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] round despite never playing an NFL snap.
Lamar Miller could be an interesting bounce back candidate. He didn’t get many opportunities in 2013 with Daniel Thomas still in the mix, but Thomas could be cut in 2014. The Dolphins brought in Moreno, but he’s been reported as out of shape. As long as Moreno isn’t a factor, Miller could be in line for a larger workload. That, alone, would make him more valuable. But if Moreno shows anything in camp, Miller is more of a lotto ticket. His current 9[SUP]th[/SUP] round ADP is well worth the gamble.
Ingram and Robinson have some opportunities now that Sproles is gone. I predict Thomas will play Sproles’ receiving role, which will leave open the rushing role for either Ingram or Robinson. The hope is that one guy emerges in camp/pre-season, which would bump that player in the rankings. If they split carries, neither is worth a pick before round 10.
Pierce has a great opportunity, and his ranking could jump based on his performance in camp. He’s another RB who had a sophomore slump, but with Rice due to miss some games to start the year, Pierce should be the lead back in Baltimore. He needs to show he is better than his 2.9 YPC last season, though. Rookie, Taliafaro is behind him, but he’s facing his own off the field issues. If Pierce wins the job in preseason and does well to start the year in place of Rice, he could be in line for a huge year even when Rice returns.
Tate and Jennings are in similar situations—Veteran RBs joining new teams, but facing some stiff competition from younger players. For that reason, I’m not high on either player. On top of that, Tate has a history of injuries and Jennings is 29.
Tier 5
[TABLE="width: 95"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 95"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 98"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Dunbar11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F Jackson9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ridley10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]A Williams8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sankey9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]McCluster9[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
These are late round lotto tickets. Stewart is an interesting pick because of his low ADP. Reports out of Carolina say he’s healthy. Deangelo Williams is 30, and he’s has had declining YPC the past three seasons. Tolbert is more of a situational RB. The Panthers WR corps is not good, so they should look to run the ball a lot. If Williams misses time, Stewart could be a nice value pick. His current ADP is the 11[SUP]th[/SUP] round.
Michael is becoming a popular sleeper, but maybe too popular now. Seattle is a superbowl contender, who will continue to ride Lynch. Michael will see more chances this year, but he shouldn’t be over-drafted. He’ll be a popular handcuff for Lynch owners, who will prefer to sure him up before the late rounds. He’ll probably be drafted before you have a chance to take him.
Dunbar is an interesting player because Murray has a history of injuries. Randle and Williams aren’t big threats, and I believe both are fighting for the #3 RB spot. Whoever loses out, will be cut. If Murray misses time (very likely), Dunbar would slide in and operate like a high level RB2 in a good offense with a good O-line. He’s being drafted in the 13/14[SUP]th[/SUP] round. That’s a risk worth taking.
Tier 6
[TABLE="width: 95"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 136"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Jennings8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rice11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hyde8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Blount12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]L Miller5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sproles7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Richardson*10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Freeman9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bradshaw10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]K Robinson6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Blue10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Grimes10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Moreno5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]West4[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
There’s a bunch of rookies in this tier that aren’t worth analyzing because we simply don’t know how well they will fare in the pros until we at least see them in pre-season games. But they have good opportunities to see immediate playing time in 2014. 2013 showed us that teams are more comfortable playing rookie RB’s, so if I’m in the later rounds looking for a RB, I’d rather take a shot on a young guy with potential rather than a veteran with a low ceiling.
Tier 7
[TABLE="width: 90"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 136"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Michael4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Stewart12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Helu10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Greene9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cunningham4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]K Davis6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Starks9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Riddick9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]White10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rodgers9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D Brown10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Taliaferro11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]B Brown9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mckinnon10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Turbin4[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
A few brief words on tiers. They are becoming more popular, so most people already understand them. I group players into tiers to maximize value of picks round-by-round. The goal is not to pinpoint certain players in drafts and target only those players. Of course there will be certain guys that you might hope to get at some point in the draft, but it's better to ignore names and rely on your tiers. Group players together who you think could have similar stats, and the goal is to get the last player available from that tier.
Onto the RB position…
This is one of the more challenging years to rank RB’s for many reasons. First, there are very few workhorse RBs who are 3 down backs who dominate carries. Also, there are many 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year RBs in line for major roles, and we only have a small sample size on these players. Recent history has told us that second year running backs often do not fare well. Finally, you hear it all the time…this is a passing league. WRs are scoring just as much, if not more, than even the best RBs. The WRs at the top of the rankings are safer and more consistent than the RBs at the top of the rankings.
For these reasons, I’ve devalued the RB position in 2014. If you have a top-3 pick, you have to secure a top-3 RB. If not, I don’t think I’d touch a RB until rounds 3 or 4. Instead, I’m taking Graham and/or safe, dominant WRs early. Then, I’ll draft a bunch of RBs in the middle and later rounds and hope to hit on 2. With WRs scoring more, it’s a no brainer to use a WR at FLEX even if it’s not a PPR league. So the goal is just to get lucky on 2 RBs out of the 7 or 8 that I’ll draft.
I will list the tiers and provide some individual player previews. These tiers are very preliminary and will change often, especially during camp when some of these depth charts get finalized. These are PPR rankings. PPR won’t change the rankings for RBs too much. Vereen, Bush, Woodhead, and Sproles have the most significant jump in value. But their lower rushing totals balance that out, giving them only a few spots jump in PPR rankings compared to standard leagues.
Tier 1
[TABLE="width: 90"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]McCoy7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Charles6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Peterson10[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
These are the consensus top-3. I’m lowest on AP because of age/workload concerns and the fact that the other guys will likely provide more in the receiving game (though there are reports that say the Vikings want to get AP more involved in the pass game). I’d go McCoy at #1 overall because the Eagles offense has more weapons than KC, so defenses can’t key in on McCoy like they can on Charles. That’s a minor nick on Charles, though, and you could argue for any of these three as #1 overall.
Tier 2
[TABLE="width: 98"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Lacy9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Murray*11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Forte9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ball4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ellington4
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Here’s where it gets complicated. Lacy and Ball have all the potential in the world in perhaps the best 2 offenses in the NFL. But they are 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year running backs, who have small sample sizes. The numbers on 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year RBs are not good. Here is a great article on that: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/47008/311/second-year-running-backs?pg=1.
My guess as to why 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year running backs struggle is two-fold. First, offensive lines consistently change, which impacts the running game year by year. 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year backs are still working on their vision and cuts before hitting the line of scrimmage, so they need consistency from their O-line. Second, the surprise element of unknown rookie players is gone. Teams have a full year to scout these RBs and exploit their weaknesses. The point is, predicting their success in year two is difficult. Therefore, I can’t justify taking these 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year guys with valuable first and second round picks because of the risk factor.
Foster has huge workload/injury concerns, but he’s in a nice bounce back position. With no QB, the Texans should continue to ride Foster to the ground. Furthermore, Tate is gone and has been replaced with Andre Brown—not really a third down guy. So Foster should continue to see a good sized workload (if he remains healthy). Murray has never played a full season, but his YPC numbers are amazing. If healthy, he’s easily a top-5 runner. It appears Dunbar will be the clear backup, too. So you can handcuff Dunbar in the later rounds to protect your investment in Murray.
I currently have Stacy penciled in as the Rams bell cow RB, but reports are all over the place in St. Louis. It’s a situation to monitor in camp. If he’s facing competition, Stacy could fall way down in the tiers.
Lynch and Forte scare me with age and workload concerns. Neither will be on my teams. Bernard and Ellington are coming into 2014 with similar amounts of hype. In round 3 or 4, I’d probably grab either, especially in PPR leagues. Their values are only rising, though, and both could be drafted earlier.
Overall, every player in Tier 2 has question marks. It’s too big of a risk to take any of them in the early rounds.
Tier 3
[TABLE="width: 95"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 95"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 98"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]D Martin*7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bernard4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gerhart11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]J Bell9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lynch4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]L Bell12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Stacy4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]R Bush9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]A Morris10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mathews10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vereen*10[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
This is probably the most important tier for my rankings because this is where the bulk of my RBs will come from. I look for two things when ranking RBs: opportunity and potential. That’s what this tier represents.
Bell is being over-drafted in round 2. His YPC was awful in 2013, he’s an infamous 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year RB, and Pitt also brought in Blount, who could possibly steal some goal line touches. Bell is a bulk carry runner, meaning that he needs a lot of carries to produce fantasy points due to his lack of YPC and lack of explosion. However, Pitt is looking to have a more open attack, so Bell may not get the carries he needs to produce like a low end RB1, which is how he’s being drafted. His underrated receiving ability helps him in PPR, but I still don’t think he’s a borderline 1[SUP]st[/SUP] round pick.
TRich could be in line for a nice bounce back. I listed him as a sleeper here: http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum...all-2014-Breakouts-Busts-Sleepers-and-Rookies
Gerhart is the definition of an opportunity RB. He goes to Jacksonville, who wants to pound the rock, and he should be the lead back there. He should easily see 250+ carries. So even if he’s bad (3.5 YPC), he should still fall into 850+ rushing yards. He’s also shown some ability in the receiving game, and he could reach 30 catches. That would put him over 1,000 total yards (with conservative projections). There is no one on the Jags who will operate as the goal-line back, so that job should be his as well. In 2013, the Jaguars, as a team, scored 7 rushing touchdowns, all of which could go to Gerhart in 2014. His 4[SUP]th[/SUP] round ADP seems fair.
I really like the Detroit RBs this year in a new system that should be reminiscent of the Saints attack. Both should have value. Bush is getting older, so I believe Detroit will begin to view him strictly as a receiver in the slot (Sproles role). He’s in line to catch 70-80 passes in 2014. Bell is coming off a strong 2013. I believe Detroit will use Bell as more of a runner (Pierre Thomas role). If healthy, he could surpass 200 carries. He’s also coming off back to back 50+ catch seasons. Riddick could steal numbers from both of these guys, so it’s another camp situation to monitor. The contracts of Bush and Bell, however, should keep them on the field plenty as long as they remain healthy (an issue for both players).
Vereen’s ranking is tentative based on his health. I read a report that said he’s still not 100%, which is concerning by now. But these are the Patriots, so we probably won’t receive honest updates. So it’s important that he’s actually on the field in camp and pre-season. Ridley will have a short leash if his fumbling continues, so Vereen could be in line for more rushing stats. He was already on pace for huge receiving numbers in 2013.
Tier 4
[TABLE="width: 90"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 98"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]J Hill4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gore8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Spiller9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]P Thomas6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Woodhead10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ingram6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tate4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pierce11[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
This is a tier with players to monitor during camp. I’m not sure what the San Diego offense will look like in 2014. Despite a decent/healthy 2013, Matthews still has an injury history that keeps him lower in the rankings. Plus, the team brought in Donald Brown, which tells me they don’t trust Mathews to be a bell cow RB. I don’t expect Woodhead’s role to change. He’s the receiving back, who only has value in PPR leagues.
The Bengals RB situation needs to be monitored in camp. If Green-Ellis is cut, rookie Hill’s value increases. Sankey is another rookie who could make an immediate impact in 2014, but that backfield to me looks like a committee with Greene and McCluster. Sankey is being over-drafted in the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] round despite never playing an NFL snap.
Lamar Miller could be an interesting bounce back candidate. He didn’t get many opportunities in 2013 with Daniel Thomas still in the mix, but Thomas could be cut in 2014. The Dolphins brought in Moreno, but he’s been reported as out of shape. As long as Moreno isn’t a factor, Miller could be in line for a larger workload. That, alone, would make him more valuable. But if Moreno shows anything in camp, Miller is more of a lotto ticket. His current 9[SUP]th[/SUP] round ADP is well worth the gamble.
Ingram and Robinson have some opportunities now that Sproles is gone. I predict Thomas will play Sproles’ receiving role, which will leave open the rushing role for either Ingram or Robinson. The hope is that one guy emerges in camp/pre-season, which would bump that player in the rankings. If they split carries, neither is worth a pick before round 10.
Pierce has a great opportunity, and his ranking could jump based on his performance in camp. He’s another RB who had a sophomore slump, but with Rice due to miss some games to start the year, Pierce should be the lead back in Baltimore. He needs to show he is better than his 2.9 YPC last season, though. Rookie, Taliafaro is behind him, but he’s facing his own off the field issues. If Pierce wins the job in preseason and does well to start the year in place of Rice, he could be in line for a huge year even when Rice returns.
Tate and Jennings are in similar situations—Veteran RBs joining new teams, but facing some stiff competition from younger players. For that reason, I’m not high on either player. On top of that, Tate has a history of injuries and Jennings is 29.
Tier 5
[TABLE="width: 95"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 95"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 98"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Dunbar11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F Jackson9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ridley10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]A Williams8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sankey9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]McCluster9[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
These are late round lotto tickets. Stewart is an interesting pick because of his low ADP. Reports out of Carolina say he’s healthy. Deangelo Williams is 30, and he’s has had declining YPC the past three seasons. Tolbert is more of a situational RB. The Panthers WR corps is not good, so they should look to run the ball a lot. If Williams misses time, Stewart could be a nice value pick. His current ADP is the 11[SUP]th[/SUP] round.
Michael is becoming a popular sleeper, but maybe too popular now. Seattle is a superbowl contender, who will continue to ride Lynch. Michael will see more chances this year, but he shouldn’t be over-drafted. He’ll be a popular handcuff for Lynch owners, who will prefer to sure him up before the late rounds. He’ll probably be drafted before you have a chance to take him.
Dunbar is an interesting player because Murray has a history of injuries. Randle and Williams aren’t big threats, and I believe both are fighting for the #3 RB spot. Whoever loses out, will be cut. If Murray misses time (very likely), Dunbar would slide in and operate like a high level RB2 in a good offense with a good O-line. He’s being drafted in the 13/14[SUP]th[/SUP] round. That’s a risk worth taking.
Tier 6
[TABLE="width: 95"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 136"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Jennings8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rice11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hyde8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Blount12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]L Miller5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sproles7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Richardson*10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Freeman9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bradshaw10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]K Robinson6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Blue10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Grimes10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Moreno5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]West4[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
There’s a bunch of rookies in this tier that aren’t worth analyzing because we simply don’t know how well they will fare in the pros until we at least see them in pre-season games. But they have good opportunities to see immediate playing time in 2014. 2013 showed us that teams are more comfortable playing rookie RB’s, so if I’m in the later rounds looking for a RB, I’d rather take a shot on a young guy with potential rather than a veteran with a low ceiling.
Tier 7
[TABLE="width: 90"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 136"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Michael4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Stewart12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Helu10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Greene9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cunningham4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]K Davis6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Starks9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Riddick9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]White10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rodgers9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D Brown10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Taliaferro11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]B Brown9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mckinnon10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Turbin4[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
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