2014 Fantasy RB Rankings (Tiers)

[Gorgolon Lives]

Updated 8/29/14

A few brief words on tiers. They are becoming more popular, so most people already understand them. I group players into tiers to maximize value of picks round-by-round. The goal is not to pinpoint certain players in drafts and target only those players. Of course there will be certain guys that you might hope to get at some point in the draft, but it's better to ignore names and rely on your tiers. Group players together who you think could have similar stats, and the goal is to get the last player available from that tier.

Onto the RB position…

This is one of the more challenging years to rank RB’s for many reasons. First, there are very few workhorse RBs who are 3 down backs who dominate carries. Also, there are many 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year RBs in line for major roles, and we only have a small sample size on these players. Recent history has told us that second year running backs often do not fare well. Finally, you hear it all the time…this is a passing league. WRs are scoring just as much, if not more, than even the best RBs. The WRs at the top of the rankings are safer and more consistent than the RBs at the top of the rankings.

For these reasons, I’ve devalued the RB position in 2014. If you have a top-3 pick, you have to secure a top-3 RB. If not, I don’t think I’d touch a RB until rounds 3 or 4. Instead, I’m taking Graham and/or safe, dominant WRs early. Then, I’ll draft a bunch of RBs in the middle and later rounds and hope to hit on 2. With WRs scoring more, it’s a no brainer to use a WR at FLEX even if it’s not a PPR league. So the goal is just to get lucky on 2 RBs out of the 7 or 8 that I’ll draft.

I will list the tiers and provide some individual player previews. These tiers are very preliminary and will change often, especially during camp when some of these depth charts get finalized. These are PPR rankings. PPR won’t change the rankings for RBs too much. Vereen, Bush, Woodhead, and Sproles have the most significant jump in value. But their lower rushing totals balance that out, giving them only a few spots jump in PPR rankings compared to standard leagues.

Tier 1

[TABLE="width: 90"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]McCoy7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Charles6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Peterson10[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

These are the consensus top-3. I’m lowest on AP because of age/workload concerns and the fact that the other guys will likely provide more in the receiving game (though there are reports that say the Vikings want to get AP more involved in the pass game). I’d go McCoy at #1 overall because the Eagles offense has more weapons than KC, so defenses can’t key in on McCoy like they can on Charles. That’s a minor nick on Charles, though, and you could argue for any of these three as #1 overall.

Tier 2

[TABLE="width: 98"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Lacy9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Murray*11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Forte9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ball4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ellington4
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Here’s where it gets complicated. Lacy and Ball have all the potential in the world in perhaps the best 2 offenses in the NFL. But they are 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year running backs, who have small sample sizes. The numbers on 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year RBs are not good. Here is a great article on that: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/47008/311/second-year-running-backs?pg=1.

My guess as to why 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year running backs struggle is two-fold. First, offensive lines consistently change, which impacts the running game year by year. 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year backs are still working on their vision and cuts before hitting the line of scrimmage, so they need consistency from their O-line. Second, the surprise element of unknown rookie players is gone. Teams have a full year to scout these RBs and exploit their weaknesses. The point is, predicting their success in year two is difficult. Therefore, I can’t justify taking these 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year guys with valuable first and second round picks because of the risk factor.

Foster has huge workload/injury concerns, but he’s in a nice bounce back position. With no QB, the Texans should continue to ride Foster to the ground. Furthermore, Tate is gone and has been replaced with Andre Brown—not really a third down guy. So Foster should continue to see a good sized workload (if he remains healthy). Murray has never played a full season, but his YPC numbers are amazing. If healthy, he’s easily a top-5 runner. It appears Dunbar will be the clear backup, too. So you can handcuff Dunbar in the later rounds to protect your investment in Murray.

I currently have Stacy penciled in as the Rams bell cow RB, but reports are all over the place in St. Louis. It’s a situation to monitor in camp. If he’s facing competition, Stacy could fall way down in the tiers.

Lynch and Forte scare me with age and workload concerns. Neither will be on my teams. Bernard and Ellington are coming into 2014 with similar amounts of hype. In round 3 or 4, I’d probably grab either, especially in PPR leagues. Their values are only rising, though, and both could be drafted earlier.

Overall, every player in Tier 2 has question marks. It’s too big of a risk to take any of them in the early rounds.

Tier 3

[TABLE="width: 95"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 95"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 98"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]D Martin*7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bernard4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gerhart11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]J Bell9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lynch4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]L Bell12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Stacy4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]R Bush9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]A Morris10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mathews10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vereen*10[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

This is probably the most important tier for my rankings because this is where the bulk of my RBs will come from. I look for two things when ranking RBs: opportunity and potential. That’s what this tier represents.

Bell is being over-drafted in round 2. His YPC was awful in 2013, he’s an infamous 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year RB, and Pitt also brought in Blount, who could possibly steal some goal line touches. Bell is a bulk carry runner, meaning that he needs a lot of carries to produce fantasy points due to his lack of YPC and lack of explosion. However, Pitt is looking to have a more open attack, so Bell may not get the carries he needs to produce like a low end RB1, which is how he’s being drafted. His underrated receiving ability helps him in PPR, but I still don’t think he’s a borderline 1[SUP]st[/SUP] round pick.

TRich could be in line for a nice bounce back. I listed him as a sleeper here: http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum...all-2014-Breakouts-Busts-Sleepers-and-Rookies

Gerhart is the definition of an opportunity RB. He goes to Jacksonville, who wants to pound the rock, and he should be the lead back there. He should easily see 250+ carries. So even if he’s bad (3.5 YPC), he should still fall into 850+ rushing yards. He’s also shown some ability in the receiving game, and he could reach 30 catches. That would put him over 1,000 total yards (with conservative projections). There is no one on the Jags who will operate as the goal-line back, so that job should be his as well. In 2013, the Jaguars, as a team, scored 7 rushing touchdowns, all of which could go to Gerhart in 2014. His 4[SUP]th[/SUP] round ADP seems fair.

I really like the Detroit RBs this year in a new system that should be reminiscent of the Saints attack. Both should have value. Bush is getting older, so I believe Detroit will begin to view him strictly as a receiver in the slot (Sproles role). He’s in line to catch 70-80 passes in 2014. Bell is coming off a strong 2013. I believe Detroit will use Bell as more of a runner (Pierre Thomas role). If healthy, he could surpass 200 carries. He’s also coming off back to back 50+ catch seasons. Riddick could steal numbers from both of these guys, so it’s another camp situation to monitor. The contracts of Bush and Bell, however, should keep them on the field plenty as long as they remain healthy (an issue for both players).

Vereen’s ranking is tentative based on his health. I read a report that said he’s still not 100%, which is concerning by now. But these are the Patriots, so we probably won’t receive honest updates. So it’s important that he’s actually on the field in camp and pre-season. Ridley will have a short leash if his fumbling continues, so Vereen could be in line for more rushing stats. He was already on pace for huge receiving numbers in 2013.

Tier 4

[TABLE="width: 90"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 98"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]J Hill4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gore8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Spiller9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]P Thomas6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Woodhead10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ingram6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tate4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pierce11[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

This is a tier with players to monitor during camp. I’m not sure what the San Diego offense will look like in 2014. Despite a decent/healthy 2013, Matthews still has an injury history that keeps him lower in the rankings. Plus, the team brought in Donald Brown, which tells me they don’t trust Mathews to be a bell cow RB. I don’t expect Woodhead’s role to change. He’s the receiving back, who only has value in PPR leagues.

The Bengals RB situation needs to be monitored in camp. If Green-Ellis is cut, rookie Hill’s value increases. Sankey is another rookie who could make an immediate impact in 2014, but that backfield to me looks like a committee with Greene and McCluster. Sankey is being over-drafted in the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] round despite never playing an NFL snap.

Lamar Miller could be an interesting bounce back candidate. He didn’t get many opportunities in 2013 with Daniel Thomas still in the mix, but Thomas could be cut in 2014. The Dolphins brought in Moreno, but he’s been reported as out of shape. As long as Moreno isn’t a factor, Miller could be in line for a larger workload. That, alone, would make him more valuable. But if Moreno shows anything in camp, Miller is more of a lotto ticket. His current 9[SUP]th[/SUP] round ADP is well worth the gamble.

Ingram and Robinson have some opportunities now that Sproles is gone. I predict Thomas will play Sproles’ receiving role, which will leave open the rushing role for either Ingram or Robinson. The hope is that one guy emerges in camp/pre-season, which would bump that player in the rankings. If they split carries, neither is worth a pick before round 10.

Pierce has a great opportunity, and his ranking could jump based on his performance in camp. He’s another RB who had a sophomore slump, but with Rice due to miss some games to start the year, Pierce should be the lead back in Baltimore. He needs to show he is better than his 2.9 YPC last season, though. Rookie, Taliafaro is behind him, but he’s facing his own off the field issues. If Pierce wins the job in preseason and does well to start the year in place of Rice, he could be in line for a huge year even when Rice returns.

Tate and Jennings are in similar situations—Veteran RBs joining new teams, but facing some stiff competition from younger players. For that reason, I’m not high on either player. On top of that, Tate has a history of injuries and Jennings is 29.

Tier 5

[TABLE="width: 95"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 95"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 98"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Dunbar11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F Jackson9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ridley10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]A Williams8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sankey9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]McCluster9[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

These are late round lotto tickets. Stewart is an interesting pick because of his low ADP. Reports out of Carolina say he’s healthy. Deangelo Williams is 30, and he’s has had declining YPC the past three seasons. Tolbert is more of a situational RB. The Panthers WR corps is not good, so they should look to run the ball a lot. If Williams misses time, Stewart could be a nice value pick. His current ADP is the 11[SUP]th[/SUP] round.

Michael is becoming a popular sleeper, but maybe too popular now. Seattle is a superbowl contender, who will continue to ride Lynch. Michael will see more chances this year, but he shouldn’t be over-drafted. He’ll be a popular handcuff for Lynch owners, who will prefer to sure him up before the late rounds. He’ll probably be drafted before you have a chance to take him.

Dunbar is an interesting player because Murray has a history of injuries. Randle and Williams aren’t big threats, and I believe both are fighting for the #3 RB spot. Whoever loses out, will be cut. If Murray misses time (very likely), Dunbar would slide in and operate like a high level RB2 in a good offense with a good O-line. He’s being drafted in the 13/14[SUP]th[/SUP] round. That’s a risk worth taking.

Tier 6

[TABLE="width: 95"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 136"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Jennings8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rice11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hyde8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Blount12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]L Miller5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sproles7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Richardson*10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Freeman9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bradshaw10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]K Robinson6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Blue10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Grimes10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Moreno5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]West4[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

There’s a bunch of rookies in this tier that aren’t worth analyzing because we simply don’t know how well they will fare in the pros until we at least see them in pre-season games. But they have good opportunities to see immediate playing time in 2014. 2013 showed us that teams are more comfortable playing rookie RB’s, so if I’m in the later rounds looking for a RB, I’d rather take a shot on a young guy with potential rather than a veteran with a low ceiling.


Tier 7

[TABLE="width: 90"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 136"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Michael4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Stewart12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Helu10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Greene9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cunningham4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]K Davis6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Starks9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Riddick9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]White10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rodgers9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D Brown10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Taliaferro11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]B Brown9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mckinnon10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Turbin4[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I added McCluster to Tier 5. I missed him. He's worth a late round pick in PPR, especially if you're not a Sankey believer. But even if Sankey produces, McCluster could carve out a passing back role.

 

[Carolina Guy]

Personally, Ellington and Stacy are too high. Richardson is wayyyyy too high. L Bell, Martin are too low. You did a good job of rating all these guys, though. Not everyone is gonna see it the same way.

-VK Shake

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Personally, Ellington and Stacy are too high. Richardson is wayyyyy too high. L Bell, Martin are too low. You did a good job of rating all these guys, though. Not everyone is gonna see it the same way.

-VK Shake

Hopefully this can start the discussion of these RBs. It's tough to rank them. I'd like to hear your thoughts on Martin. Initially I had him higher, but I'm hearing TB might implement more of a RBBC approach so I'm not sure Martin is deserving of a 1st/2nd round pick. They drafted a rookie, Sims, pretty high in the draft. So Sims should at least be the passing down back, but he could also eat into Martin's carries.

 

[IvyinBarondise]

There's a lot of talk about taking away a LOT of touches from Forte this season...same for Lynch obviously.

I think Ellington, Bernard, and Bell could prove to be the steals of the draft this season...

I agree Richardson is too high, but it seems like where he's falling could warrant a nice pick in whats amounting to be late 3rd-early 4th round for 12 team leagues...

Lacy isn't really too high though, he's a consensus #4 at this point...pretty straight forward...what do you wanna rank him? Who are you bumping him behind?

I

 

[IvyinBarondise]

btw, where's Ray Rice? He's worth a pick late...even with a 6ish game suspension

 

[Lareux]

There's a lot of talk about taking away a LOT of touches from Forte this season...same for Lynch obviously.

I think Ellington, Bernard, and Bell could prove to be the steals of the draft this season...

I agree Richardson is too high, but it seems like where he's falling could warrant a nice pick in whats amounting to be late 3rd-early 4th round for 12 team leagues...

Lacy isn't really too high though, he's a consensus #4 at this point...pretty straight forward...what do you wanna rank him? Who are you bumping him behind?

I

Agree about Lacy, but I don't think anyone said he was too high. CG said he thought Stacy was too high....rhymes with Lacy...

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

There's a lot of talk about taking away a LOT of touches from Forte this season...same for Lynch obviously.

I think Ellington, Bernard, and Bell could prove to be the steals of the draft this season...

I agree Richardson is too high, but it seems like where he's falling could warrant a nice pick in whats amounting to be late 3rd-early 4th round for 12 team leagues...

Lacy isn't really too high though, he's a consensus #4 at this point...pretty straight forward...what do you wanna rank him? Who are you bumping him behind?

I

The thing about Lacy is that I feel he's appropriately ranked at #4. I just have all the Tier 1 WR's ahead of him, so Lacy won't be on any of my teams. I cant justify Lacy being drafted ahead of the likes of Calvin, Thomas, Dez, etc.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

btw, where's Ray Rice? He's worth a pick late...even with a 6ish game suspension

I assume Godell will throw the hammer on Rice, undeservedly so. It's only his first violation, but abuse on women isn't tolerated in the public eye. 6 games seems like a good projection. He was already on a downward trend last season, so I doubt he comes back and produces much in 2014. At best, I see him splitting carries with Pierce.

 

[Tide High]

gorg, mind weighing in on this for me? 14 team 1man keeper league, extra WR/TE flex. standard scoring and the round(pick) the manager loses in order to keep. I am keeping andre ellington and have the 3rd pick. I believe eddy lacy will be drafted first, and then foster or peyton. never know but i have a good read on the guys in front of me. i want to go Calvin, but is there any other back worth taking right there considering the RB pool is already so short (10 kept out of 14 teams) and i don't pick again for a while.
here is the list of kept players

1 Payne - Giovani Bernard (4)
2 Beegle - Julian Edelman (13)
3 Me - Andre Ellington (12)
4 Eng - Montee Ball (3)
5 Adam - Michael Crabtree (18)
6 Blake - Matt Forte (1)
7 Billings - Zac Stacy (11) ??
8 Roath - Joique Bell (14)
9 Dick - Lesean McCoy (1)
10 Trey - Jamaal Charles (1)
11 ChrisW - Percy Harvin (16)

12 Keen - Jordy Nelson (6)
13 Brandon - Adrian Peterson (1)
14 Rick - Marshawn Lynch (1)



the guys that will probably be available when i get to pick again are: gerhart, trich, matthews. that's maybe's though. if they are gone i think a guy like antonio brown will be there and may be forced into another WR.

I'm really just looking for the push over the edge to take calvin. my RBs will suffer but i'm planning on running 4WR and 2RB all year. can't run 4WR if i don't take one in the 1st, i don't think.

Also, if calvin gets taken in front of me, should i stick with my guns and take demarius thomas or go lacy/foster/murray (whoever i rank highest on draft day)?

Basically, does the limited RB player pool effect my rankings going in? is murray/lacy/foster good enough to take in front of calvin in this situation?

 

[Tide High]

Also, very glad you are posting here this year. I always look for your threads for major influence in my rankings

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I updated the rankings. Key notes: moved Foster down, moved Stacy down, moved Gerhart up, Added Pierre Thomas (I missed him somehow on initial rankings).

I also added some rookies that I overlooked. Carey is the man behind Forte, who I dont think will play 16 games. Sims deserves attention in camp. He should get serious action playing with Martin in a RBBC system in Tampa. Blue is a super sleeper in Houston. Both Foster and Andre Brown have injury history.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

gorg, mind weighing in on this for me? 14 team 1man keeper league, extra WR/TE flex. standard scoring and the round(pick) the manager loses in order to keep. I am keeping andre ellington and have the 3rd pick. I believe eddy lacy will be drafted first, and then foster or peyton. never know but i have a good read on the guys in front of me. i want to go Calvin, but is there any other back worth taking right there considering the RB pool is already so short (10 kept out of 14 teams) and i don't pick again for a while.
here is the list of kept players

1 Payne - Giovani Bernard (4)
2 Beegle - Julian Edelman (13)
3 Me - Andre Ellington (12)
4 Eng - Montee Ball (3)
5 Adam - Michael Crabtree (18)
6 Blake - Matt Forte (1)
7 Billings - Zac Stacy (11) ??
8 Roath - Joique Bell (14)
9 Dick - Lesean McCoy (1)
10 Trey - Jamaal Charles (1)
11 ChrisW - Percy Harvin (16)

12 Keen - Jordy Nelson (6)
13 Brandon - Adrian Peterson (1)
14 Rick - Marshawn Lynch (1)



the guys that will probably be available when i get to pick again are: gerhart, trich, matthews. that's maybe's though. if they are gone i think a guy like antonio brown will be there and may be forced into another WR.

I'm really just looking for the push over the edge to take calvin. my RBs will suffer but i'm planning on running 4WR and 2RB all year. can't run 4WR if i don't take one in the 1st, i don't think.

Also, if calvin gets taken in front of me, should i stick with my guns and take demarius thomas or go lacy/foster/murray (whoever i rank highest on draft day)?

Basically, does the limited RB player pool effect my rankings going in? is murray/lacy/foster good enough to take in front of calvin in this situation?

Is this PPR?

Also, it depends how much you like Ellington. Right now, I think Ellington could produce low level RB1 numbers in PPR. His value could change once we know more about the AZ RB situation, but Dwyer and Taylor are nowhere near Ellington in terms of impact at the position. So I don't see either of them affecting his workload much. Even if they steal some goal line carries, Ellington is still dynamic enough to bust long runs for TDs and he will be very active in the passing game.

Because you are only playing 2 RBs and 4 WRs, I think you go WR in round 1. If you're high on Ellington as a consistent starter, you just need to get lucky and hit on one more RB later in the draft. Foster and Murray are good, but both have major injury concerns. I'd rather go safe in round 1 (stud WR) and take risks later in the draft on high upside RBs.

Calvin vs. Thomas is almost a coin flip decision, so either of them in round 1 should bring back RB1-type value.

 

[Tide High]

its standard, not ppr.

thanks for the vote. i'm almost certainly going calvin if he's there. just wanted this thread's and your input

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I think Ellington is devalued some in standard leagues. I peg him for 60 receptions.

 

[Tide High]

after really digging into the order and rankings, it looks like my 2nd round pick i might have gerhart or vareen. all your other tier 3 guys should be gone. hopefully somone picks stafford or julius thomas or reaches for a non top 6 WR so that a decent RB is there.

so basically i could go Murray, Ellington and Ant Brown or Calvin, Ellington and Gerhart.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

after really digging into the order and rankings, it looks like my 2nd round pick i might have gerhart or vareen. all your other tier 3 guys should be gone. hopefully somone picks stafford or julius thomas or reaches for a non top 6 WR so that a decent RB is there.

so basically i could go Murray, Ellington and Ant Brown or Calvin, Ellington and Gerhart.

I think Brown is a better option in PPR. There is a good sized gap between Calvin and Brown. While Murray is better than Gerhart, there's a good chance Murray misses some games. So at the end of the year, I wouldn't be surprised if Gerhart and Murray finish with similar numbers. 1300 total yards and 7 TD's ...

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Also Gerhart is fresh. He reminds me A LOT of Michael Turner. Turner was a backup in SD, but always showed flashes. Then he went to Atlanta as the lead back and played great in his first year there. The talent of ATL vs. JAX isn't the same, but Gerhart is also better than Turner in the pass game.

 

[jk16]

I assume Godell will throw the hammer on Rice, undeservedly so. It's only his first violation, but abuse on women isn't tolerated in the public eye. 6 games seems like a good projection. He was already on a downward trend last season, so I doubt he comes back and produces much in 2014. At best, I see him splitting carries with Pierce.

So now where does he go?

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

So now where does he go?

Good question. 2 games is nothing. My bigger issue with Rice is his declining stats across the board over the past 3 seasons. He's 27 which suggests he could still have one more big year in him, but he has a lot of wear and tear on him. Pierce is also squarely in the mix for a bigger role. The rookie Taliaferro has also gotten some post-draft publicity and could get some work if he stays out of trouble. I think the Ravens are hoping Pierce figures it out and becomes a time share back with Rice. I don't think we can safely rank either guy until we see how they look in camp/pre-season.

 

[Tide High]

pierce is definitely in a 40% role at the least. i think it'll be straight 50-50, but it seems like last year toward the end of the game they leaned on rice more.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

pierce is definitely in a 40% role at the least. i think it'll be straight 50-50, but it seems like last year toward the end of the game they leaned on rice more.

Yea. As of now, neither of them is anything more than a RB3/Flex heading into camp.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

It's never good to cheer an injury, but Ballard going down really helps T Rich. Only Bradshaw sits behind him, and Bradshaw can never stay healthy in his own right.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Down goes Kendall Hunter...with ACL done for year. Hyde will move way up in the rankings now.

 

[ScopeY]

Down goes Kendall Hunter...with ACL done for year. Hyde will move way up in the rankings now.

And Lamichael James now hurt, don't know how severe though

 

[GridironGems]

And Lamichael James now hurt, don't know how severe though

He'll be out for about a month with a dislocated elbow. Carlos Hyde would have been 2nd string anyway. James will be the PR and KR and not much else

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I've updated the rankings after roughly a week of camp. Already we are hearing injury reports from injury-prone players Richardson, Foster, and Stewart. I've bumped down all 3 players. Ray Rice is back, and as of now, I have him neck and neck with Pierce in the rankings. Their situation is much like Tate/West in Clev. Unless one player emerges, these guys will eat into each other's values.

Lynch is slowly falling in the ranks. We've seen RB's who hold out for a while falter during the season. He needs to get to camp asap. I've re-evaluated two players: Morris and Mathews. Both are stronger standard league options, but both should carry PPR value due to large workloads. Only Helu is behind Morris, and Helu is more of a change of pace RB. I'm also hearing that WASH wants to give Morris some more opportunities to catch passes. He's a 275-300 touch candidate, which is rare in 2014. As for Mathews, I like that he's in a contract year. SD coaches have said he's their workhorse. I could see them running Mathews into the ground considering his contract status. I've bumped both players up in the rankings. As the negative Moreno reports continue, Miller continues to rise. He's a risk/reward pick, but considering his ADP, the risk is fairly low. I'm not buying the Chip Kelly connections to this offense, however. Lazor will bring some Kelly concepts, but he is NOT Kelly. David Wilson is back and he just makes the GMen RB situation that much more confusing. Jennings is being overdrafted. He's merely a two-down RB who will lose 3rd down work to Wilson and goalline work to Williams.

 

[Tide High]

good update.

updating my posts above here, it looks like the guy in front of me is going to pick calvin.

so my options (standard league) based on your rankings are...

Demarius
Murray
Ball

murray and ball are the only backs not kept out of that tier. no WRs are kept except jordy but if i don't take demarius i will have someone like ant brown or garcon as my #1. so do i take another WR right behind calvin and live with a tier 3 RB as my #1 or do i go with murray/ball, snaging the last of that tier.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

good update.

updating my posts above here, it looks like the guy in front of me is going to pick calvin.

so my options (standard league) based on your rankings are...

Demarius
Murray
Ball

murray and ball are the only backs not kept out of that tier. no WRs are kept except jordy but if i don't take demarius i will have someone like ant brown or garcon as my #1. so do i take another WR right behind calvin and live with a tier 3 RB as my #1 or do i go with murray/ball, snaging the last of that tier.

I'm really starting to come around to Murray. I bumped him to RB5 (I forgot to mention that in my above post). If he stays healthy, he could finish in the top-3 in this offense. I like what Dallas did to the O-line, as well. It's a close call between Demarius and Murray. I think Demarius is safer. Murray, though, is a top RB at a very thin position. I'm high on Ellington, who you're keeping. I think he'll operate as a low-end RB1 in 2014. So I'd go Demarius to sure up your WR1. Then in round 2, you have some flexibility go grab the best overall player on your board.

 

[Tide High]

i really like murray too, but its all about his health which can't be predicted, so demarius is safer for sure. thanks for the input.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

S Jax already injured. Gotta monitor that. I didn't rank him anyway, but could mean big things for Freeman and Rodgers. I just noticed I didnt rank Rodgers. I'll update that once we know more about Jax

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Reports on Moreno continue to get worse. Lamar Miller will rise in the ranks as long as he shows well in preseason. There's really no competition behind him. The Daniel Thomas experiment was a complete failure last season.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

RB rankings have been updated. There's some larger changes in these. Stacy is solidified as a legit RB2. I'd consider him in rd 3, but he is being overdrafted in early rd 2. Tre Mason doesn't sound like a threat. Cunningham is pure back up. Stacy is in line for a huge workload in a run heavy offense headed by a bad QB. I'm off the Spiller comeback train. BUFF resigned Fred Jackson, and I see a pure timeshare there. Spiller is more of a FLEX option, but he's being overdrafted as a RB2. Foster now has his tombstone in the fantasy graveyard. He's off my rankings. Too many injuries.

My love for TRich has diminished. He's hurt again. He's been hurt his entire career. He has to overcome way too many hurdles to get back to fantasy relevance. 5th round is too high. I realize I had the Saints RBs too high. Until one emerges as the primary running RB, only Pierre Thomas is worth drafting. 2 rookies continue to rise: Hyde and Freeman. I'm also on the James White train. I never ranked Ridley high due to Belichick's hatred of him. If Ridley is weeded out completely, Vereen's stock rises. If healthy, Vereen is a top-10 RB in PPR.

 

[Tide High]

Thanks! If u have an update by Friday please edit them. Big draft fri night

I keep doing mocks and end up with Ellington and miller as my 2 rbs, while my Wrs are dominant. What u think?

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Thanks! If u have an update by Friday please edit them. Big draft fri night

I keep doing mocks and end up with Ellington and miller as my 2 rbs, while my Wrs are dominant. What u think?

I like both. I think the main goal is to roster as many RBs as your league allows. It sucks that your league is drafting so early, but the good thing is that you can probably get RBs earlier, now, who might rise in the rankings later in the month. I'm thinking of guys like Pierce, West, Hyde, Hill, White, and A. Williams.

 

[Tide High]

Good names. I actually like it earlier bc I'm more prepd than the others

 

[Tide High]

My 3rd round pick is tough. I've run a bunch of mocks set up exactly for this league and there's a big group of rbs there with the top 3 qbs and tes gone.

Guys that I don't like though. Would u take Keenan over Jennings, Tate, rice, trich, Sankey, vareen, gore? I was thinking vareen but when u said white I flinched a bit

My roster would be elli, calvin, Cobb, Allen. Or sub one of those early 3rd rbs in place of Allen then looking at Floyd in the 4th

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

My 3rd round pick is tough. I've run a bunch of mocks set up exactly for this league and there's a big group of rbs there with the top 3 qbs and tes gone.

Guys that I don't like though. Would u take Keenan over Jennings, Tate, rice, trich, Sankey, vareen, gore? I was thinking vareen but when u said white I flinched a bit

My roster would be elli, calvin, Cobb, Allen. Or sub one of those early 3rd rbs in place of Allen then looking at Floyd in the 4th

I'm still high on Vereen in PPR. I think if White does get time, he will eat into Ridley's carries, not Vereen's touches (he should get a lot of receptions if he stays healthy). I'm more concerned with Vereen's health. Allen is tough to rank. A lot of the fantasy websites group Allen with the Tier 2 WRs. I don't. He's still only entering his 2nd year, so it's no lock that he will continue producing like he did last year. Also, with Wisenhunt gone, there's some uncertainty with the offense. Plus, Floyd will return opposite Allen. Floyd's not great, but he should still see some receptions going his way. Allen is still a top-15 WR, but I group him with guys like Floyd, Cruz, and Tate. Those guys will go later than Allen and are better values. If you group Allen as a Tier 2 WR, then he would be your pick in round 3, as he would likely be the last guy available from that tier.

Your 3rd rd pick is tough because you'll probably be at the beginning of a new WR tier and at the beginning of a new RB tier. So that pick won't have much value. You're probably hoping guys like Jeffery, Cobb and Antonio Brown fall in rd 2 and 3 respectively. A lot of fantasy websites are hyping some bad RBs up who could go ahead of those guys (Martin, Spiller). So it's possible you could still get two Tier 2 WR's.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I think Julius Thomas would be a nice value as your rd 3 pick, but as you say, he could be gone by then. But now Gronk is really getting hyped, so Thomas could fall.

 

[Tide High]

Thanks a ton gorg. That's exactly what is happening. New wr rb and qb tier

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Not too pleased that Moreno is off PUP today. He's got a month to get in shape, which is doable. If he does, he will eat into Miller's workload. If the Dolphins really believed in Miller, I don't think they would have signed Moreno in the first place (albeit the contract is team-friendly). Miller is still a nice gamble in rounds 7-10, but he's more of a RB3/RB4 until we know how healthy Moreno will be by week 1. I owned Miller last year, and he was a total bust. So it would be nice if he showed some flashes in the pre-season.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Good news for Andre Williams fans (including myself). Hillis has been injured. This guy, I think, was a steroid user. He'll continue experiencing nagging injuries. His career might be over. Now it's the 2 headed "monster" of Williams and Jennings. Coughlin loves using 2 backs. Williams will get plenty of work, including goal-line work. I'm not a Jennings fan at all. He's 29, and he's never had a full season of being the featured RB.

Williams will be moving up in the rankings. I think he's a legit RB3 with RB1 upside if Jennings busts.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

The Cincinnati Enquirer's Paul Dehner expects Bengals second-round RB Jeremy Hill to see 10-15 carries per game.

I'm starting to like Hill more than Gio, strictly in terms of value. Hill will take goal line carries and should play the Green-Ellis role in the offense. It appears that Cinncy will run just as much, if not more, than last season. Based off Cinncy's team rushing stats last season, I'm pegging Hill for 215 carries and 20 receptions, 1020 total yards and 7-8 TDs. I'm pegging Gio with 190 carries and 65 catches, 1350 total yards and 7 TD's. That would put Gio around RB10 in PPR and Hill around RB20 in PPR. Gio's ADP is mid-2nd round. Hill's ADP is mid-9th round.

Ellington is a comparable player to Gio, and he is going a full round later in PPR formats. But Ellington really doesn't have anyone behind him that is good. As of now, Stefan Taylor is the backup in Zona. He had bad combine numbers and doesn't have the ability that Hill has. Taylor shouldn't eat into Ellington's workload because he just isn't very good. The only unknown right now is whether Taylor will steal goal line carries from Ellington. Arians insisted on using Mendenhall last year, who was awful. Mendenhall had 8 TD's. If Ellington just gets half of those, that should put him at 8 total TD's. I'm pegging Ellington for 180 carries, 60 catches and 1400 total yards.

If possible, I'd argue to pass on Gio, grab Ellington later and reach a round early for Hill.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I'm going back and forth w/ Mike Clay on Twitter.

Clay projects Gio at 213 carries, 50-55 catches, 7 TDs. He's giving Hill 170 carries, 8 TD's.

I'm arguing that Hill and Gio will play a lot together with Gio in slot. Expect less carries for Gio but more catches. My 65 catch projection is conservative.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

According to the Cincinnati Enquirer's Paul Dehner, Giovani Bernard and rookie Jeremy Hill "are slotted as the starters" in the Bengals' backfield.

 

[Tide High]

i wish these reports would stop coming out. seems like every player i'm already targeting gets confirmed reasoning that is public. i've gotten hill in basically every mock. prob have to a couple rounds earlier now huh?

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Hill's ADP is 9th rd. I would not wait that long.

 

[Tide High]

yeah i've been taking him late 6th in a 14 teamer. right where gio went last year in an early draft. would like to wait til late 8th but won't get him

 

[Lareux]

i wish these reports would stop coming out. seems like every player i'm already targeting gets confirmed reasoning that is public. i've gotten hill in basically every mock. prob have to a couple rounds earlier now huh?

All reasoning is public somewhere my man...it's 2014.

 

[Tide High]

All reasoning is public somewhere my man...it's 2014.

my draft is in 28 hours. i've been planning on drafting hill for 2 weeks. even though i am now more confident in hill because of this report, i would still have drafted him and probably got him later. now i might miss him.

no big deal, just bad timing for me today