2013 Tennis projections/picks

[ebemiss]

I've been working on a Tennis model that will generate a money line based on an estimated win pct from a list of rankings I've compiled. Here are 8 matches today. (4 men, 4 women).

I've been playing any wrong side favorite with positive results. For example player A is -135 in the match, my number has player B -115. Unfortunately there aren't any of those plays today in the matches, I ran, but it's something to look at going forward.

I also don't have a particular cutoff set in stone yet when the line differs from my number to make it a play. As you'll see below, if you compare to the actual line, some of the matches may be off 10 cents or as high as 50 cents. I'm still working on a cutoff I feel comfortable with as I'm trying to narrow the error margin in my rankings.

One play on the women's side shows that it should be about twice as big a favorite as it currently is. 4854 P. Kvitova is -160. My number has her about -300.

I'm going to post the numbers for next week's US open once all the match ups are listed. Thought I'd share. Any feedback or suggestions from guys that play this market is appreciated.

Today's matches.

Men's

R Berankis-Lithuania
S Querrey-United States -202

D Tursunov-Russia -252
J Melzer-Austria

F Verdasco-Spain
G Monfils-France -131

A Dolgopolov-Ukraine -139
Y Lu-Chinese Taipei


Women's


E Makarova-Russia
S Halep-Romania -151

C Wozniacki-Denmark -163
S Stephens-United States

A Pavlyuchenkova-Russia
P Kvitova-Czech Republic -300

K Zakopalova-Czech Republic
E Vesnina-Russia -156

 

[Toronto_Mike]

good luck ebemiss, it's great to see another tennis poster here.
looking forward to your thoughts on US Open

 

[ebemiss]

good luck ebemiss, it's great to see another tennis poster here.
looking forward to your thoughts on US Open

Same to you Mike. Just saw draw was posted. Hoping to get it in a format I can use to run the projections and post them sometime this weekend. Here's the Men's side.

http://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/draws/ms/

 

[ebemiss]

8.23 Projections

Men's

S Querrey-United States -268
J Melzer-Austria

A Dolgopolov-Ukraine
G Monfils-France -185

Women's

S Halep-Romania
C Wozniacki-Denmark -125

K Zakopalova-Czech Republic
P Kvitova-Czech Republic -197

 

[nbafan88]

The Wozniacki line seems suspiciously short to me

 

[ebemiss]

Agree. Most likely get bet up as well. I'm staying away

 

[smo1a]

Nice baseline to start capping a match. Thx for posting!

 

[nbafan88]

halep is whooping ass

 

[ebemiss]

halep is whooping ass

Yeah. Line got bet up like I thought. Not sure what it closed at but I'm happy it went through my projection and kept going. You were right on the money that the line seemed suspicious.

Regardless of the final outcome she is giving her all she can handle.

 

[nbafan88]

:cheers:

 

[ebemiss]

Nice baseline to start capping a match. Thx for posting!

Thanks. Hopefully they'll help us out.

8.24 projections for 2 finals. Both lines moved in the direction of my numbers from last night. (losing some value on the dog) I played:

4861 SIMONA HALEP +110 (BM)

Women's

S Halep-Romania -114
P Kvitova-Czech Republic

Men's

J Melzer-Austria
G Monfils-France -254

 

[nbafan88]

Don't get why Monfils is such a big favorite. Scares me with a line move that much. Took melzer

 

[nbafan88]

Monfils better not retire.

 

[nbafan88]

Fucking pussy. 2-1 dog up in flames

 

[ebemiss]

Here are projections for 1st round Monday/Tuesday action. Think I'm missing 1 game didn't have info on a player. Found a few that fit the wrong side favorite profile I've been using so I posted them below. All lines from bookmaker. Treading lightly first 2 days so I can continue to tweak the numbers.

Picks record

1-0 (+1.10)

8.26

Women's

4512 ANABEL MEDINA GARRIGUES +150
4537 ESTRELLA CABEZA CANDELA +125
4554 ALEXANDRA CADANTU +155
4559 CAROLINE GARCIA +115

Men's

4075 KENNY DE SCHEPPER +135
4108 FRANK DANCEVIC +195

Projections

Monday

S Williams-United States -5332
F Schiavone-Italy

G Voskoboeva-Kazakhstan
M Niculescu-Romania -105

Y Shvedova-Kazakhstan -199
O Puchkova-Russia

P Mayr-Achleitner-Austria
M Rybarikova-Slovakia -713

J Hampton-United States -991
L Arruabarrena-Vecino-Spain

K Mladenovic-France
A Medina Garrigues-Spain -139

I Begu-Romania
U Radwanska-Poland -190

M Minella-Luxembourg
S Stephens-United States -1460

K Flipkens-Belgium
V Williams-United States -140

K Bertens-Netherlands
J Zheng-China -115

C Vandeweghe-United States -164
A Krunic-Serbia

L Davis-United States
C Suarez Navarro-Spain -239

K Kanepi-Estonia -442
V King-United States

S Voegele-Switzerland -141
AK Schmiedlova-Slovakia

K Pliskova-Czech Republic
E Bouchard-Canada -331

L Hradecka-Czech Republic
A Kerber-Germany -974

A Radwanska-Poland -3747
S Soler-Espinosa-Spain

M Torro-Flor-Spain
M Erakovic-New Zealand -209

E Cabeza-Candela-Spain -113
A Barty-Australia

V Razzano-France
A Pavlyuchenkova-Russia -247

E Makarova-Russia -320
P Hercog-Slovenia

M Johansson-France
B Mattek-Sands-United States -433

P Ormaechea-Argentina
K Date-Krumm-Japan -111

V Dushevina-Russia
S Lisicki-Germany -440

J Jankovic-Serbia -214
M Keys-United States

M Puig-Puerto Rico -207
A Kleybanova-Russia

K Nara-Japan
A Cadantu-Romania -134

S Fichman-Canada
S Cirstea-Romania -263

L Robson-Great Britain -111
L Dominguez-Lino-Spain

C Garcia-France -116
S Rogers-United States

P Cetkovska-Czech Republic -143
S Arvidsson-Sweden

O Govortsova-Belarus
N Li-China -1189

Tuesday

C Wozniacki-Denmark -1088
Y Duan-China

C Scheepers-South Africa -246
C Simmonds-South Africa

J Cepelova-Slovakia
C Giorgi-Italy -115

S Hsieh-Chinese Taipei
K Zakopalova-Czech Republic -399

E Vesnina-Russia -420
A Beck-Germany

K Knapp-Italy
G Min-United States -130

L Tsurenko-Ukraine
L Safarova-Czech Republic -146

T Babos-Hungary
R Vinci-Italy -704

M Kirilenko-Russia -258
Y Wickmayer-Belgium

M Larcher De Brito-Portugal -208
E Daniilidou-Greece

D Vekic-Croatia -207
M Duque-Marino-Colombia

H Watson-Great Britain
S Halep-Romania -660

S Kuznetsova-Russia -152
M Burdette-United States

S Peng-China -187
Y Meusburger-Austria

N Gibbs-United States
F Pennetta-Italy -117

A Morita-Japan
S Errani-Italy -502

P Kvitova-Czech Republic -1095
M Doi-Japan

B Jovanovski-Serbia
A Petkovic-Germany -391

T Pironkova-Bulgaria
A Riske-United States -174

J Larsson-Sweden
M Barthel-Germany -327

N Petrova-Russia -327
J Glushko-Israel

M Lucic-Croatia -398
S Vickery-United States

M Sanchez-United States
D Hantuchova-Slovakia -185

V Duval-United States
S Stosur-Australia -1249

A Ivanovic-Serbia -807
A Tatishvili-Republic of Georgia

V Lepchenko-United States -178
A Dulgheru-Romania

J Goerges-Germany
C Mchale-United States -167

E Svitolina-Ukraine
D Cibulkova-Slovakia -230

A Cornet-France -366
MJ Koehler-Portugal

C Dellacqua-Australia -105
A Tomljanovic-Croatia

A Wozniak-Canada -158
V Dolonts-Serbia

D Pfizenmaier-Germany
V Azarenka-Belarus -3944


Men's


R Gasquet-France -1071
M Russell-United States

S Robert-France -194
A Olivetti-France

J Struff-Germany
G Rufin-France -130

A Bedene-Slovenia
D Tursunov-Russia -395

F Lopez-Spain -490
F Serra-France

K De Schepper-France -109
B Klahn-United States

A Kuznetsov-Russia
D Sela-Israel -254

P Cuevas-Uruguay
J Tipsarevic-Serbia -575

E Gulbis-Latvia -1633
A Haider-Maurer-Austria

M Kukushkin-Kazakhstan -224
A Martin-Slovakia

R Bautista-Spain -124
T Bellucci-Brazil

N Kyrgios-Australia
D Ferrer-Spain -1722

R Federer-Switzerland -4115
G Zemlja-Slovenia

S Giraldo-Colombia
C Berlocq-Argentina -125

T Robredo-Spain -149
M Matosevic-Australia

R Haase-Netherlands
F Dancevic-Canada -108

A Ramos-Spain
B Tomic-Australia -255

K Nishikori-Japan -874
D Evans-Great Britain

F Verdasco-Spain -156
I Dodig-Croatia

N Davydenko-Russia -396
R Williams-United States

R Dutra Da Silva-Brazil
V Pospisil-Canada -446

R Nadal-Spain -4441
R Harrison-United States

Tuesday


N Djokovic-Serbia -10344
R Berankis-Lithuania

B Becker-Germany -149
L Rosol-Czech Republic

L Kubot-Poland
J Nieminen-Finland -200

J Sousa-Portugal
G Dimitrov-Bulgaria -1179

B Paire-France -145
A Bogomolov Jr.-Russia

B Paire-France -232
A Bogomolov Jr.-Russia

T Smyczek-United States -136
J Duckworth-Australia

M Granollers-Spain -849
J Zopp-Estonia

F Fognini-Italy -544
R Ram-United States

T Haas-Germany -933
P Mathieu-France

Y Lu-Chinese Taipei -175
D Gimeno-Traver-Spain

D Goffin-Belgium
A Dolgopolov-Ukraine -221

M Youzhny-Russia -579
N Mahut-France

J Melzer-Austria -337
E Donskoy-Russia

I Sijsling-Netherlands -107
P Gojowczyk-Germany

L Hewitt-Australia -267
B Baker-United States

JM Del Potro-Argentina -1177
G Garcia-Lopez-Spain

A Murray-Great Britain -4369
M Llodra-France

V Hanescu-Romania
L Mayer-Argentina -186

D Young-United States -157
M Klizan-Slovakia

F Mayer-Germany
J Monaco-Argentina -125

A Seppi-Italy -148
X Malisse-Belgium

L Lacko-Slovakia
S Devvarman-India -262

T Kamke-Germany
S Johnson-United States -141

D Istomin-Uzbekistan
N Almagro-Spain -197

S Wawrinka-Switzerland -309
R Stepanek-Czech Republic

J Blake-United States
I Karlovic-Croatia -111

M Baghdatis-Cyprus -119
G Soeda-Japan

D Brands-Germany
K Anderson-South Africa -385

J Benneteau-France -675
M Przysiezny-Poland

S Stakhovsky-Ukraine
J Chardy-France -106

J Vesely-Czech Republic -140
D Kudla-United States

P Lorenzi-Italy
T Berdych-Czech Republic -2602

P Andujar-Spain
T de Bakker-Netherlands -146

T Fabbiano-Italy
M Raonic-Canada -1083

J Janowicz-Poland -950
M Gonzalez-Argentina

J Sock-United States
P Petzschner-Germany -125

H Zeballos-Argentina -124
A Mannarino-France

G Pella-Argentina
S Querrey-United States -668

F Volandri-Italy
J Isner-United States -1212

A Montanes-Spain -133
E Roger-Vasselin-France

 

[@TheHorzy]

Been wanting someone to tackle tennis like this for years. Surface and court speed should also be measured in addition to price, although I'm sure it's reflected in the price. However if you had a different spreadsheet you could wager on games with X differential in price provided the athlete is playing with a court speed advantage of X.

Anyways, I really wish you good luck with this. Let me know if I can help in anyway.

 

[ebemiss]

Been wanting someone to tackle tennis like this for years. Surface and court speed should also be measured in addition to price, although I'm sure it's reflected in the price. However if you had a different spreadsheet you could wager on games with X differential in price provided the athlete is playing with a court speed advantage of X.

Anyways, I really wish you good luck with this. Let me know if I can help in anyway.

Thanks for the feedback. I appreciate it. You are right surface should matter in the process. I just don't have each player broken down that way yet. I'm taking the players overall performance then placing more weight on their recent performance. It's the best I could do right now tracking about 1800 players. In the future I hope to break it down farther to show a greater edge in the line. However anyone who uses the projections should check out each players court strengths before placing a wager.

Here's my other problem when designating plays. As the odds grow I'm probably going to need a wider margin in the odds/projection before making it a play. I'm working on setting up a percentage difference that I'll need as a starting point to look towards one player or the other.

For example if the Line is -300 and my projection is only -240. Is that enough of a difference to play the dog? I'm not sure. I've been passing on games/lines like that. More tracking will help me I guess.

I've been playing underdogs that should be favorites according to my numbers with success. I've also seen positive results with a match like the example I've posted when my number is -300 and line is -160. I just don't like playing a ton of heavy favorites.

Now I just need a better guideline for betting underdogs when line is higher than my projection. Is it 20%, 35%, 50% less than the actual line? Any suggestions will help.

In baseball I'll use between 5-15% difference in my line as there are only 30 teams and I have a good handle on them. With a 1000+ players to try and track, for each men's and women's, the margin of error is going to be much greater than that.

The model is a work in progress. This is the beginning. Automating it would help me as well as I'm manually trying to update everything everyday.

Good luck to everyone playing this week.

 

[Toronto_Mike]

Good Luck at the US Open!

 

[STEED]

Awesome stuff. Gonna be interesting to see how those comparison picks unfold tomm and Tuesday. Will be honest, didn't read entire thread, but what criteria are you using to spit out your own projections in a nutshell?

 

[Schrute]

Thanks for sharing EBemiss

That's a ton of commitment you've made to the model. Wish you luck during the Open

 

[@TheHorzy]

Thanks for the feedback. I appreciate it. You are right surface should matter in the process. I just don't have each player broken down that way yet. I'm taking the players overall performance then placing more weight on their recent performance. It's the best I could do right now tracking about 1800 players. In the future I hope to break it down farther to show a greater edge in the line. However anyone who uses the projections should check out each players court strengths before placing a wager.

Here's my other problem when designating plays. As the odds grow I'm probably going to need a wider margin in the odds/projection before making it a play. I'm working on setting up a percentage difference that I'll need as a starting point to look towards one player or the other.

For example if the Line is -300 and my projection is only -240. Is that enough of a difference to play the dog? I'm not sure. I've been passing on games/lines like that. More tracking will help me I guess.

I've been playing underdogs that should be favorites according to my numbers with success. I've also seen positive results with a match like the example I've posted when my number is -300 and line is -160. I just don't like playing a ton of heavy favorites.

Now I just need a better guideline for betting underdogs when line is higher than my projection. Is it 20%, 35%, 50% less than the actual line? Any suggestions will help.

In baseball I'll use between 5-15% difference in my line as there are only 30 teams and I have a good handle on them. With a 1000+ players to try and track, for each men's and women's, the margin of error is going to be much greater than that.

The model is a work in progress. This is the beginning. Automating it would help me as well as I'm manually trying to update everything everyday.

Good luck to everyone playing this week.

The surface stuff should be fairly easy. Every court already has a numerical rating. So you just need to come up with a way to use existing valuation and apply it to your player surface database which you mentioned you don't have yet. I'm assuming its something like a players recent (30) winning percentage on that court holding court factor constant, multiplied by the court rating which is discounted to fit a scale out of 100? Totally making this up, but my thoughts are that it won't be difficult, and it needs to be a trailing average to be accurate.

I'm assuming when you have enough historical results, a percentage of perceived value will become apparent as to where the play, and don't play, parameters are.

I will put my thinking cap on over the next week or an and see if I can offer a proper suggestion as to do the court valuation. Great stuff though, really well done.

 

[ebemiss]

thanks for the comments guys. I really do appreciate the feedback. It's the only way to make the numbers/predictions better.

What I've tried to do when building this is to take the actual closing line odds for each players lined matches to help with their overall rating. That helps or acts as my strength of schedule component. Like I said above, it's some work, but it will benefit in the long run....I hope. It has with other things I've put together in the past. I value the market/odds makers opinion of players more than just the players raw numbers. (Side note, anybody with programming experience that may be able to help in this process would be great)

Also I'm thinking I can put something together for each player for the different surfaces based on microsoft excel's lookup function. I have all the players ranking right now. If someone has or may know of a link that shows each players performance on grass, clay, hardcourts I may be able to set up an adjustment. Take my player, find the player based on his court factors and then adjust overall. (I've found sites that have individuals on 1 page with that info, I need the info for ALL players on 1 page.

That way the overall rating can be tweaked slightly based on tournament. Not exactly perfect but at least something for now.

I'm treading lightly the first few days. I hope to have a few other plays, other than the "wrong player favorite" picks I posted later in the week. Good luck to everyone.

 

[P-Unit]

Are you going to play Kanepi since she's about half as big a fave as you have posted? That's one that stuck out to me.

 

[ebemiss]

Are you going to play Kanepi since she's about half as big a fave as you have posted? That's one that stuck out to me.

That's exactly the type of play I'm keeping an eye on with these numbers. I didn't play it yet. I'm hoping with more tracking those plays become auto plays as I narrow the criteria. I'm rooting for her as I'm hoping my number is right on her and I can get value moving forward

 

[ebemiss]

add

4100 CARLOS BERLOCQ +101

 

[ebemiss]

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<tbody>
[TD="width: 94"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 186"] Men's
[/TD]
[TD="width: 94"]
[/TD]

[TD="width: 94"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 186"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 94"]
[/TD]

[TD="width: 94"]

4037​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 186"] DONALD YOUNG
[/TD]
[TD="width: 94"]

+100​

[/TD]

[TD="width: 94"]

4084​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 186"] PHILIPP PETZSCHNER
[/TD]
[TD="width: 94"]

+155​

[/TD]

[TD="width: 94"]

4101​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 186"] HORACIO ZEBALLOS
[/TD]
[TD="width: 94"]

+235​

[/TD]

[TD="width: 94"]

4117​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 186"] ALBERT MONTANES
[/TD]
[TD="width: 94"]

+210​

[/TD]

[TD="width: 94"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 186"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 94"]
[/TD]

[TD="width: 94"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 186"] Women's
[/TD]
[TD="width: 94"]
[/TD]

[TD="width: 94"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 186"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 94"]
[/TD]

[TD="width: 94"]

4576​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 186"] GRACE MIN
[/TD]
[TD="width: 94"]

+140​

[/TD]

[TD="width: 94"]

4618​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 186"] CHRISTINA MC HALE
[/TD]
[TD="width: 94"]

+145​

[/TD]

</tbody>

 

[ebemiss]

8.27 matches above

 

[P-Unit]

Tailed you on Dancevic. Thanks for that one boss.

 

[ebemiss]

Tailed you on Dancevic. Thanks for that one boss.

Glad it hit.

Picks record

6-7 (+0.65)

Caught a break with PETZSCHNER retiring.

 

[ebemiss]

8.28

4052 ivo karlovic +110

 

[ebemiss]

Picks record

7-7 (+1.75)

8.29

4190 NIKOLAY DAVYDENKO +135
4687 CHRISTINA MC HALE +162

Thursday Projections

Men's

R Gasquet-France -440
S Robert-France

G Rufin-France
D Tursunov-Russia -196

F Lopez-Spain -327
B Klahn-United States

P Andujar-Spain
M Raonic-Canada -942

M Gonzalez-Argentina
J Sock-United States -308

D Sela-Israel
J Tipsarevic-Serbia -255

A Haider-Maurer-Austria
M Kukushkin-Kazakhstan -469

R Bautista-Spain
D Ferrer-Spain -519

R Federer-Switzerland -2841
C Berlocq-Argentina

A Mannarino-France
S Querrey-United States -218

T Robredo-Spain -120
F Dancevic-Canada

B Tomic-Australia -728
D Evans-Great Britain

J Isner-United States -350
G Monfils-France

E Roger-Vasselin-France
P Kohlschreiber-Germany -231

I Dodig-Croatia
N Davydenko-Russia -169

R Dutra Da Silva-Brazil
R Nadal-Spain -23280


Women's


S Williams-United States -7372
G Voskoboeva-Kazakhstan

Y Shvedova-Kazakhstan -331
P Mayr-Achleitner-Austria

K Kanepi-Estonia -589
AK Schmiedlova-Slovakia

E Bouchard-Canada
A Kerber-Germany -267

E Makarova-Russia -150
B Mattek-Sands-United States

P Ormaechea-Argentina
S Lisicki-Germany -318

J Jankovic-Serbia -484
A Kleybanova-Russia

K Nara-Japan
S Cirstea-Romania -319

C Wozniacki-Denmark -526
C Scheepers-South Africa

C Giorgi-Italy -186
S Hsieh-Chinese Taipei

E Vesnina-Russia -482
K Knapp-Italy

L Safarova-Czech Republic
R Vinci-Italy -265

M Kirilenko-Russia -247
M Larcher De Brito-Portugal

D Vekic-Croatia
S Halep-Romania -471

S Kuznetsova-Russia -124
S Peng-China

F Pennetta-Italy
S Errani-Italy -567

P Kvitova-Czech Republic -738
B Jovanovski-Serbia

A Riske-United States
M Barthel-Germany -175

J Glushko-Israel -319
S Vickery-United States

D Hantuchova-Slovakia -321
V Duval-United States

A Ivanovic-Serbia -505
A Dulgheru-Romania


C Mchale-United States -115
E Svitolina-Ukraine

A Cornet-France -599
A Tomljanovic-Croatia

A Wozniak-Canada
V Azarenka-Belarus -2866

 

[STEED]

:shake:

 

[ebemiss]

:shake:

Picks record

8-8 (+2.37)

8.30

4142 PETER GOJOWCZYK +125
4150 SOMDEV DEVVARMAN +165

Friday

Men's

N Djokovic-Serbia -10145
B Becker-Germany

J Nieminen-Finland -332
J Sousa-Portugal

A Bogomolov Jr.-Russia -113
T Smyczek-United States

M Granollers-Spain -337
R Ram-United States

T Haas-Germany -512
Y Lu-Chinese Taipei

A Dolgopolov-Ukraine
M Youzhny-Russia -195

E Donskoy-Russia
P Gojowczyk-Germany -159

L Hewitt-Australia
JM Del Potro-Argentina -681

A Murray-Great Britain -5370
L Mayer-Argentina

D Young-United States
F Mayer-Germany -144

A Seppi-Italy
S Devvarman-India -128

T Kamke-Germany
D Istomin-Uzbekistan -188

S Wawrinka-Switzerland -381
I Karlovic-Croatia

M Baghdatis-Cyprus
K Anderson-South Africa -251

J Benneteau-France -139
J Chardy-France

D Kudla-United States
T Berdych-Czech Republic -3330


Women's

S Williams-United States -4877
Y Shvedova-Kazakhstan

J Hampton-United States
S Stephens-United States -128

J Zheng-China
C Suarez Navarro-Spain -139

K Kanepi-Estonia
A Kerber-Germany -150

A Radwanska-Poland -651
A Pavlyuchenkova-Russia

E Makarova-Russia
S Lisicki-Germany -111

J Jankovic-Serbia -363
K Nara-Japan

L Robson-Great Britain
N Li-China -629

 

[ebemiss]

Picks record

8-10 (+0.37)

4241 RICHARD GASQUET +125
4746 DANIELA HANTUCHOVA +145

Monday

Men's

R Gasquet-France -117
M Raonic-Canada

J Tipsarevic-Serbia
D Ferrer-Spain -338

R Federer-Switzerland -2104
T Robredo-Spain

P Kohlschreiber-Germany
R Nadal-Spain -1363


Women's

C Giorgi-Italy
R Vinci-Italy -290

S Halep-Romania -567
F Pennetta-Italy

A Riske-United States
D Hantuchova-Slovakia -132

A Ivanovic-Serbia
V Azarenka-Belarus -1127

 

[ebemiss]

Picks record

10-10 (+3.07)

9.6

4758 NA LI +510