G
Gyno
Guest
This thread just went platinum..
2008 college football -- time to post my week 7 card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
sportnut,
I find your insight very interesting...I also find it interesting that two good cappers can come to similiar conclusions with much different analysis...just one last thing...did you come to the observation that Brandstanter isn't very good by watching him play?...just messing with you...GL bro...:cheers:
blue chip,
my bad...I got it...good to hear...:cheers:
kyle,
card looks good my friend...:cheers:
I find your insight very interesting...I also find it interesting that two good cappers can come to similiar conclusions with much different analysis...just one last thing...did you come to the observation that Brandstanter isn't very good by watching him play?...just messing with you...GL bro...:cheers:
blue chip,
my bad...I got it...good to hear...:cheers:
kyle,
card looks good my friend...:cheers:
Aztec4Life
Montezuma Mesa Survivor
Awesome breakdown of the Louisville game bro...I'm sold!
GL this week buddy, and thanks!
:cheers:
GL this week buddy, and thanks!
:cheers:
Pags ,
Just sort of a switch in philosophy over the years . Naturally at one time I watched a ton of what was going on but its to much of a distraction fo me. Following the play by plays of 10 games at one time allows me to understand teams better . Now granted I have seen just about every team play at one time even for just a few minutes so its not like I have no idea of what these guys look like on the field its just I dont need to see them every game to know what they are about . Its weird in a way I guess but I just sort of imply alot using what I feel is rational logic . The moral of my story is there really is no such thing as consistency for most teams and players .
Anyway good to talk you bro its seems like years . Outside of the quick hello and GL .
Very good point . Without establishing the run on either trick play why would Troy bite ? Part of what I was saying is they had moved the ball by dropping back and throwing (K.I.S.S theory) so what was the sense of using trick plays to do what you had already accomplished ? Same here have no problem with the play I came to a conclusion based on what I knew and I missed some things . Troy won because FAU was that lost on Tuesday not because they were clearly better but its about execution. No bitterness here just a learning lesson.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
locked in
lsu +4
tcu -14
louisville -6.5
arizona -6
ucf/miamiflorida under 52
utahst/sjsu over 47
michst/nw over 45.5
miamioh/niu over 41.5
kansasst/tamu under 63.5
FAU +4.5 LOSER
notre dame +7.5
iowa -5
miami ohio +11.5
bowling green pickem
Well my preseaon goal was to have a lot more plays than past years to avoid leaving so much money on the table .... i am succeeding at that ... damn.
O
O-State
Guest
VK, I see you have Arizona, what are the thoughts on there?
I put a good bit of thoughts in Yanks thread
I put a good bit of thoughts in Yanks thread
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
here is a link to that thread for those that cant find it. good stuff.
Yanks has great threads all the time. Not jsut football either. Great baseball threads as well.
Anyways here is the link with some of that discussion , i will be back in a few with my thoughts on why Zona is the play ...
http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?t=66190
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Alright , I realize that a lot of folks think this is a great spot for Stanford but I am not so inclined to completely agree.. On its face you would think there is a look ahead here for Arizona with back to back home games vs. cal and usc on deck … but I believe there are mitigating factors that make this less the case. The first reason is that this team already did the stumble on the road to a lesser opponent when they played the lobos earlier in the year. The second reason is that Arizona actually has revenge here after losing as 13 poitn favorites at home to stanford last year. So while I see the point and think it has some merit .. I don’t think this a huge deal by any stretch. I also think the return to their home field is less of an advantage than you might think. This team has been a pretty bad home team ATS historically the last few years. To start this year they covered against Oregon state , catching the beavers at the perfect tim ein the opener before all those new faces could gel together defensively. Oregon state was a team that improved greatly as the year progressed and are playing much better defense than the two debacles against stanford and penn state. But even in that game Oregon state should have won had it not been for bad turnovers. And stanford covered again at home vs. sjsu but only because of harbaugh trying to cover a bet for his friends or boosters as they rushed the ball into the end zone instead of taking a knee at the end.
So lets look at stanford defensively so far this year.
vs. Oregon state the cardinal allowed 490 yards. The beavers average 413 a game
At Arizona state the cardinal allowed 472 yards. The sun devils average 355 a game
At TCU the cardinal allowed 378. The frogs average 413 a game
vs. sjsu the cardinal allowed 219 The Spartans average 312 a game
At Washington the cardinal allowed 379 yards The huskies average 307 a game
At Notre dame the cardinal allowed 430 yards The irish average 353 a game
So when looking at this , the only times that the stanford defense has thoroughly outperformed the average defense faced by their opponents was a home game to SJSU.
There is something else that I find particularly alarming about stanford and that is the number of first downs that they allow per game to their opponents.
They are giving up 24 first downs per game … the only team averaging over 25 first downs given up per game is Idaho , to put that into perspective for you. Arizona is averaging 23.8 first downs per game. So I certainly find it hard to fathom that Arizona does not get a lot of first downs in this game , especially when you consider that the teams that stanford has struggled with the most defensively are the teams that passed a lot against them.
In short you have an offense that likes to do exactly what the opposing defense is incapable of defending.
Arizona averages 258 yards passing and 428 yards total per game. Why should I expect Stanford to stop them.
So then I look at the other side of the game … stanford offense vs. Arizona defense.
And what does stanford like to do ? Run gerhart. And they are effective doing that averaging 167 a game on the ground … which is actually pretty impressive considering they have played some decent rush defenses this year. But Arizona is only giving up 107 yards a game on the ground. A lot of that is because teams fall behind early and can’t continue to run the way new mexico did when they rushed for 221 on Arizona. But that is kind of an advantage in a way also imo … what I mean is that when Arizona gets ahead ( and even stanford bettors would have to acknowledge that this is the most likely scenario ) , stanford gets taken out of their comfort zone if they have to pass. Stnaford can run the ball on zona a little bit , but I don’t think it will be enough to keep up …. And when they fall behind it could start getting tougher and tougher for them
I want to point out the first downs again because it is significant in my opinion. I am HUGE believer in first downs as a football handicapping tool as long as they are looked at in perspective. And look at what we get in this game. Rounded.
Stanford offense vs. Arizona defense
Stanford averages 17 first downs per game , Arizona gives up on average 12 first downs per game
Arizona offense vs. Stanford defense
Arizona averages 24 first downs per game , Stanford gives up on average 24 first downs per game
Stat of the week for this game in my opinion. Like that Arizona is the type of team to pour it on and that Stanford is a running team that struggles passing as both line up as factors against backdoor scenarios.
Level of Arizona competition is a concern but Stanford simply hasn’t shown me much to make me not want to take the wildcats at anything under a td or less. Will take a very negative turnover ratio to lose this if my analysis is correct.
I have some other reasoning as well but this is long enough as it is ……
So lets look at stanford defensively so far this year.
vs. Oregon state the cardinal allowed 490 yards. The beavers average 413 a game
At Arizona state the cardinal allowed 472 yards. The sun devils average 355 a game
At TCU the cardinal allowed 378. The frogs average 413 a game
vs. sjsu the cardinal allowed 219 The Spartans average 312 a game
At Washington the cardinal allowed 379 yards The huskies average 307 a game
At Notre dame the cardinal allowed 430 yards The irish average 353 a game
So when looking at this , the only times that the stanford defense has thoroughly outperformed the average defense faced by their opponents was a home game to SJSU.
There is something else that I find particularly alarming about stanford and that is the number of first downs that they allow per game to their opponents.
They are giving up 24 first downs per game … the only team averaging over 25 first downs given up per game is Idaho , to put that into perspective for you. Arizona is averaging 23.8 first downs per game. So I certainly find it hard to fathom that Arizona does not get a lot of first downs in this game , especially when you consider that the teams that stanford has struggled with the most defensively are the teams that passed a lot against them.
In short you have an offense that likes to do exactly what the opposing defense is incapable of defending.
Arizona averages 258 yards passing and 428 yards total per game. Why should I expect Stanford to stop them.
So then I look at the other side of the game … stanford offense vs. Arizona defense.
And what does stanford like to do ? Run gerhart. And they are effective doing that averaging 167 a game on the ground … which is actually pretty impressive considering they have played some decent rush defenses this year. But Arizona is only giving up 107 yards a game on the ground. A lot of that is because teams fall behind early and can’t continue to run the way new mexico did when they rushed for 221 on Arizona. But that is kind of an advantage in a way also imo … what I mean is that when Arizona gets ahead ( and even stanford bettors would have to acknowledge that this is the most likely scenario ) , stanford gets taken out of their comfort zone if they have to pass. Stnaford can run the ball on zona a little bit , but I don’t think it will be enough to keep up …. And when they fall behind it could start getting tougher and tougher for them
I want to point out the first downs again because it is significant in my opinion. I am HUGE believer in first downs as a football handicapping tool as long as they are looked at in perspective. And look at what we get in this game. Rounded.
Stanford offense vs. Arizona defense
Stanford averages 17 first downs per game , Arizona gives up on average 12 first downs per game
Arizona offense vs. Stanford defense
Arizona averages 24 first downs per game , Stanford gives up on average 24 first downs per game
Stat of the week for this game in my opinion. Like that Arizona is the type of team to pour it on and that Stanford is a running team that struggles passing as both line up as factors against backdoor scenarios.
Level of Arizona competition is a concern but Stanford simply hasn’t shown me much to make me not want to take the wildcats at anything under a td or less. Will take a very negative turnover ratio to lose this if my analysis is correct.
I have some other reasoning as well but this is long enough as it is ……
O
O-State
Guest
Interesting comments. You know what with that first down statistic, it's a very good point. I wonder if their is some statistics out their on first downs to point spreads. The key for me is the run D of Stanford. On one hand I tend to believe those first down stats point to a team gaining first downs as being able to mix in the run. If it's pass first downs I don't think it means as much. I compared Stanford to the New Mexico defense.
New Mexico first downs allowed
20 to TCU ----common opp as Stanford, TCU dominated run similarly, 171-56. Stanford allowed 24, 4 more first downs.
16 to TAMU ---------------216-92 run, 154-144 pass
21 to Arizona--------------221-67 run, 114-321 pass
28 to Tulsa----------------12-137 run, 190-469 pass
15 to New Mexico State----297-48 rush, 55-382 pass
12 to Wyoming-------------317-130 rush, 33-71 pass
-----completely different schedules, ASU, OSU, ND, have firepower. I think it shows Stanford is a little worse in this capacity, but New Mexico allowed Zona to have 21 first downs and still won.
Stanford - Arizona common opponent, Washington, Stanford gave up 27 first downs, got 21, and Arizona gave up just 12, had 28, but no Jake Locker.
I mean this kind of aligns with my comments earlier, posted below. Stanford has got to stop the run, force the Zona pass and get turnovers while dominating the clock. New Mexico did, it can be done. I don't see a large disparity between Stanford and New Mexicio here. Forget the situation even though their similar and all that stuff, both teams were ready to play at NM and both will be ready to play at Stanford. New Mexico sucks at pass defense just like Stanford here, Tulsa put 469 up, New Mexico State 382, and then Arizona had 321. New Mexico also can't pass just like Stanford. NM hasn't hasn't had over 200 yards passing yet! Can probably carry over the passing stats from NM game to Palo Alto. Rush offense I think they are pretty similar but maybe an edge to NM rush defense but stats not to far off. With all that said I think alot of people are saying if Arizona doesn't lose the turnovers 5-1 they win easily. 2 TO's were int's 3 fumbles. I didn't watch the game to see how it went but those who did probably got a feel for the superior team. I understand the thought process VK but Zona did not get out to an early lead against a very similar team as Stanford.
"I will say this...Arizona I think is the more balanced team here. The biggest difference in Arizona this year is their rush offense. They averaged just 77 yards a game last year, but were worse than that as two games (N. Arizona, WSU skewed them.) These right here are full games from last year, they put up rushing yards of 32, 38, 21, 9, 22, 25, 56, 44. Wow that's beyond deplorable horrible oh my god.
So Stanford, while I think they can run a good bit on Arizona, they must also stop Zona from running the ball. That's what New Mexico did. Stanford has got to win both sides of this rushing battle convincingly.
Stanford has only passed for over 200 once this year. Wildcats have not given up 200 this year. They are going to win that battle easily, and if the Wildcats have improved their rush offense this year I think the rushing disparity is less than the passing disparity between these two teams. Once again the Cat opponents have not been of the same quality though take that into consideration. The key will be Stanford making Zona completely one dimensonal, otherwise Zona is the better all around team."
New Mexico first downs allowed
20 to TCU ----common opp as Stanford, TCU dominated run similarly, 171-56. Stanford allowed 24, 4 more first downs.
16 to TAMU ---------------216-92 run, 154-144 pass
21 to Arizona--------------221-67 run, 114-321 pass
28 to Tulsa----------------12-137 run, 190-469 pass
15 to New Mexico State----297-48 rush, 55-382 pass
12 to Wyoming-------------317-130 rush, 33-71 pass
-----completely different schedules, ASU, OSU, ND, have firepower. I think it shows Stanford is a little worse in this capacity, but New Mexico allowed Zona to have 21 first downs and still won.
Stanford - Arizona common opponent, Washington, Stanford gave up 27 first downs, got 21, and Arizona gave up just 12, had 28, but no Jake Locker.
I mean this kind of aligns with my comments earlier, posted below. Stanford has got to stop the run, force the Zona pass and get turnovers while dominating the clock. New Mexico did, it can be done. I don't see a large disparity between Stanford and New Mexicio here. Forget the situation even though their similar and all that stuff, both teams were ready to play at NM and both will be ready to play at Stanford. New Mexico sucks at pass defense just like Stanford here, Tulsa put 469 up, New Mexico State 382, and then Arizona had 321. New Mexico also can't pass just like Stanford. NM hasn't hasn't had over 200 yards passing yet! Can probably carry over the passing stats from NM game to Palo Alto. Rush offense I think they are pretty similar but maybe an edge to NM rush defense but stats not to far off. With all that said I think alot of people are saying if Arizona doesn't lose the turnovers 5-1 they win easily. 2 TO's were int's 3 fumbles. I didn't watch the game to see how it went but those who did probably got a feel for the superior team. I understand the thought process VK but Zona did not get out to an early lead against a very similar team as Stanford.
"I will say this...Arizona I think is the more balanced team here. The biggest difference in Arizona this year is their rush offense. They averaged just 77 yards a game last year, but were worse than that as two games (N. Arizona, WSU skewed them.) These right here are full games from last year, they put up rushing yards of 32, 38, 21, 9, 22, 25, 56, 44. Wow that's beyond deplorable horrible oh my god.
So Stanford, while I think they can run a good bit on Arizona, they must also stop Zona from running the ball. That's what New Mexico did. Stanford has got to win both sides of this rushing battle convincingly.
Stanford has only passed for over 200 once this year. Wildcats have not given up 200 this year. They are going to win that battle easily, and if the Wildcats have improved their rush offense this year I think the rushing disparity is less than the passing disparity between these two teams. Once again the Cat opponents have not been of the same quality though take that into consideration. The key will be Stanford making Zona completely one dimensonal, otherwise Zona is the better all around team."
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I mean this kind of aligns with my comments earlier, posted below. Stanford has got to stop the run, force the Zona pass and get turnovers while dominating the clock. New Mexico did, it can be done. I don't see a large disparity between Stanford and New Mexicio here. Forget the situation even though their similar and all that stuff, both teams were ready to play at NM and both will be ready to play at Stanford. New Mexico sucks at pass defense just like Stanford here, Tulsa put 469 up, New Mexico State 382, and then Arizona had 321. New Mexico also can't pass just like Stanford. NM hasn't hasn't had over 200 yards passing yet! Can probably carry over the passing stats from NM game to Palo Alto. Rush offense I think they are pretty similar but maybe an edge to NM rush defense but stats not to far off. With all that said I think alot of people are saying if Arizona doesn't lose the turnovers 5-1 they win easily. 2 TO's were int's 3 fumbles. I didn't watch the game to see how it went but those who did probably got a feel for the superior team. I understand the thought process VK but Zona did not get out to an early lead against a very similar team as Stanford.
well they didn't get early lead ( though first to score ) because of turnovers... they had early turnovers and had 5 turnovers to unm 1 turnover ... as i said if that happens ( a really bad turnover margin ) then stanford covers and can win the game.
Other than tcu what opponent has stanford played that you think is better than zona ??? notre dame ?
I haven't figured out how to cap for turnovers beyond the most simplistic ways .. past performance and style of system .. beyond that i cant do it .. so i basically start from the premise that will be even ... I think i can survive a minus 1 ratio and have atleast a chance to cover here .. minus 2 and it gets pretty dicey ... but if i am plus 2 it is easy as pie.... if i am plus 1 i believe it is easy as pie.
While turnovers are often the deciding factor to bets , i find that capping them is far and away the most difficult aspect of football analysis.
If someone can enlighten me on how else to predict that , i am willing to learn.... believe me.
BTW despite having 5 turnovers and new mexico having just 1 .... the wildcats still had 3 more first downs and 53 more yards of offense ... not bad at all.
Stanford is averaging just 24 pts a game ... going to have to get a lot more than that to cover in this one , in my opinion.
I will say that there are some similarities to the unm spot .. zona had revenge there as well and it meant little.
unm scoring drives
drive started at zona 11 following interception ... result fg
drive started at unm 24 following zona punt ..result td ( trick play pass ferguson to porterie )
drive started at zona 23 following zona fumble .... result fg
drive started at zona 39 following long punt return ... result td ( 25 yd ferguson run )
drive started at zona 10 following zona fumble ..... result td
drive started unm 23 following zona punt ... result fg
drive started at zona 22 following zona fumble ... result fg
drive started at unm 39 following zona int ...... result fg
If zona hands it to stanford on a silver platter like that , then there is no way that the wildcats cover. I just can't cap for it. Final was 36-28 unm btw for those that dont know .... i kind of give arizona credit for only losing by 1 score given all that myself.
well they didn't get early lead ( though first to score ) because of turnovers... they had early turnovers and had 5 turnovers to unm 1 turnover ... as i said if that happens ( a really bad turnover margin ) then stanford covers and can win the game.
Other than tcu what opponent has stanford played that you think is better than zona ??? notre dame ?
I haven't figured out how to cap for turnovers beyond the most simplistic ways .. past performance and style of system .. beyond that i cant do it .. so i basically start from the premise that will be even ... I think i can survive a minus 1 ratio and have atleast a chance to cover here .. minus 2 and it gets pretty dicey ... but if i am plus 2 it is easy as pie.... if i am plus 1 i believe it is easy as pie.
While turnovers are often the deciding factor to bets , i find that capping them is far and away the most difficult aspect of football analysis.
If someone can enlighten me on how else to predict that , i am willing to learn.... believe me.
BTW despite having 5 turnovers and new mexico having just 1 .... the wildcats still had 3 more first downs and 53 more yards of offense ... not bad at all.
Stanford is averaging just 24 pts a game ... going to have to get a lot more than that to cover in this one , in my opinion.
I will say that there are some similarities to the unm spot .. zona had revenge there as well and it meant little.
unm scoring drives
drive started at zona 11 following interception ... result fg
drive started at unm 24 following zona punt ..result td ( trick play pass ferguson to porterie )
drive started at zona 23 following zona fumble .... result fg
drive started at zona 39 following long punt return ... result td ( 25 yd ferguson run )
drive started at zona 10 following zona fumble ..... result td
drive started unm 23 following zona punt ... result fg
drive started at zona 22 following zona fumble ... result fg
drive started at unm 39 following zona int ...... result fg
If zona hands it to stanford on a silver platter like that , then there is no way that the wildcats cover. I just can't cap for it. Final was 36-28 unm btw for those that dont know .... i kind of give arizona credit for only losing by 1 score given all that myself.
O
O-State
Guest
There's no question Arizona is going to be Stanford's toughest opponent to date.
I think we basically are on the same page here. I'm just a little apprehensive I guess because it's happened to Zona before, but if I look at the rest of my plays you could get picky and find the same amount of reasoning for the other side. I think the reason I'm on this one is because my gut, something about on the road similar to New Mexico doesn't sit well with me even though I think Arizona is better. This feeling is similar to why I didn't take Penn State last week. I was all over Zone when the lines came out, but after listening to more people's opinions i think it might be that trap game, and at this point I'm overanalyzing it too much.
Stanford is probably going to have to win the turnover battle. Now, it's hard looking at that New Mexico game in boxscores and saying well Arizona jwas ust unlucky, fluky, and that it is very unlikely to happen again. I'd like someone who watched that game to chime in. New Mexico might of just been better and turnovers happen when a team is physically killing you, and I think that's what happened. A large part of that was making Zona one dimensional. If Stanford can do that I think they are more than a lucky bounce away of duplicating what New Mexico did.
I think we basically are on the same page here. I'm just a little apprehensive I guess because it's happened to Zona before, but if I look at the rest of my plays you could get picky and find the same amount of reasoning for the other side. I think the reason I'm on this one is because my gut, something about on the road similar to New Mexico doesn't sit well with me even though I think Arizona is better. This feeling is similar to why I didn't take Penn State last week. I was all over Zone when the lines came out, but after listening to more people's opinions i think it might be that trap game, and at this point I'm overanalyzing it too much.
Stanford is probably going to have to win the turnover battle. Now, it's hard looking at that New Mexico game in boxscores and saying well Arizona jwas ust unlucky, fluky, and that it is very unlikely to happen again. I'd like someone who watched that game to chime in. New Mexico might of just been better and turnovers happen when a team is physically killing you, and I think that's what happened. A large part of that was making Zona one dimensional. If Stanford can do that I think they are more than a lucky bounce away of duplicating what New Mexico did.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
i watched every play. It was not physical domination. Here was my recap of the bet i lost with zona that day ... ugh ... had to make me remember it.
From my week 4 thread recapping week 3 bets .. this was rated my worst bet hahaahahaha.
Arizona -10 loser -- I think I failed to give the spot enough credit in this game. Arizona off two dominant wins , in first road game for young defense , with conference opener ucla on deck vs a team that was already 0-2 at home on the season and very battle tested. Don't get me wrong , the lobos showed marked improvement from week 1 to week 2 and now in week 3. I am sure there are a lot of people who don't know about rocky long but this guy can coach. The lobos secondary matched up well with Arizona wide receivers and tackled well in space on the quick hitting wide receiver screens, bubble screens and quick hitters. While the lobos benefited from +4 in turnovers and short fields left and right , the wildcats had just 3 more first downs and just 53 yards more of offense. The wildcats were held to just 67 yards rushing where as unm had over 200. This is not a stat sheet that you want to see when laying DD on the road. It is always easy in retrospect to second guess a bet , but I truly believe this was a bad bet.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Great writeup on the bowling green game from nropp ... don't need to share thoughts on that if i can link it hehe...
http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?t=66435
http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?t=66435
sirwinzalot
The wisdom of Towlie
Thanks for the play Kyle as I won 1/2 unit on Louisville. This one should pay you back for the loss vs. UConn. We probably didn't deserve to get a win here, but a win is a win.
:cheers:
:cheers:
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
No probablies about it ... i completely miscapped this game. Ville was the wrong side. period. total domination by memphis.
I dont believe in apoligizing for recommending plays , cause then i would have to do that so often and lets face i am wrong a lot ....
but i apologize for recommending louisville tonight.
Sort of a nice feeling to have no business winning and getting to cash though.
kickoff for td , block fg for td , scoop and score for td .. ridiculous good fortune.
Between us we have had our share the other way , sirwinz .. so lets just thank the gods and take it.
But for a game i felt this confident in ... that game went nothing as i expected.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left> </TD><TD>
</TD><TD>
</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>27</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency
</TD><TD>3-13</TD><TD>7-15</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>1-2</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>299</TD><TD>481</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>133</TD><TD>351</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>13-25</TD><TD>34-56</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>5.3</TD><TD>6.1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>166</TD><TD>130</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>30</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>5.5</TD><TD>4.3</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>6-65</TD><TD>5-46</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>26:30</TD><TD>33:30</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
wow ... opposite of tuesday where i felt FAU was the side and didnt cover in sort of flukish fashion .. instant payback.
</TD><TD>3-13</TD><TD>7-15</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>1-2</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>299</TD><TD>481</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>133</TD><TD>351</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>13-25</TD><TD>34-56</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>5.3</TD><TD>6.1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>166</TD><TD>130</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>30</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>5.5</TD><TD>4.3</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>6-65</TD><TD>5-46</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>26:30</TD><TD>33:30</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
wow ... opposite of tuesday where i felt FAU was the side and didnt cover in sort of flukish fashion .. instant payback.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I like to examine my work for the week as i head into saturdays .. i did this last week and will try to do it every week if i remember ... but checking my lines that i got vs where lines sit now .. there will be changes by tomorrow but this gives me a good idea of how i did line shopping and timing my bets. i think i have had roughly 1 game a week where a result was dependent on whether i got a good number or a bad number ... anyways , how i did this week ...current bookmaker odds will be used.
lsu +4 ............currently +6.5 ouch. crap. terrible
tcu -14 ..........currently -15 at bookmaker
arizona -6 .......currently -7 at bookmaker
ucf/miamiflorida under 52....currently 47 at bookmaker ( yum yum )
utahst/sjsu over 47 ..........currently 46 at bookmaker
michst/nw over 45.5 .........currently 47 at bookmaker
miamioh/niu over 41.5 .......currently 41.5 at bookmaker
kansasst/tamu under 63.5 ...currently 59 at bookmaker
notre dame +7.5 ..........currently -8.5 at bookmaker
iowa -5 ......................currently -5.5 at bookmaker
miami ohio +11.5 ...........currently +11 at bookmaker
bowling green pickem ......currently -1 at bookmaker
so the only one i feel awful about is the lsu number and i have to say that move shocked me. i misjudged that completely. Also a tad upset that the utah state total dropped off the 47 as that is a very key number in totals betting. the notre dame move doesnt mean much to me ... if it falls 8 it falls 8 i have to pounce in those spots that i like the dog and it sits at 7.5. no regrets there.
the rest i did alright on so a pretty good week .. especially happy with gettting zone under the td , tcu at the two td and not above , and on the right side of two HUGE totals moves with under in tamu and under in miamifl.
gl tomorrow gang .... feel like a kid in the candy store right now with winning that game tonight.
it has been a long time since i felt that lucky to win a game .. forgot how good it feels. mad that i capped it wrong but glad to finally cap one wrong and win anyway.
lsu +4 ............currently +6.5 ouch. crap. terrible
tcu -14 ..........currently -15 at bookmaker
arizona -6 .......currently -7 at bookmaker
ucf/miamiflorida under 52....currently 47 at bookmaker ( yum yum )
utahst/sjsu over 47 ..........currently 46 at bookmaker
michst/nw over 45.5 .........currently 47 at bookmaker
miamioh/niu over 41.5 .......currently 41.5 at bookmaker
kansasst/tamu under 63.5 ...currently 59 at bookmaker
notre dame +7.5 ..........currently -8.5 at bookmaker
iowa -5 ......................currently -5.5 at bookmaker
miami ohio +11.5 ...........currently +11 at bookmaker
bowling green pickem ......currently -1 at bookmaker
so the only one i feel awful about is the lsu number and i have to say that move shocked me. i misjudged that completely. Also a tad upset that the utah state total dropped off the 47 as that is a very key number in totals betting. the notre dame move doesnt mean much to me ... if it falls 8 it falls 8 i have to pounce in those spots that i like the dog and it sits at 7.5. no regrets there.
the rest i did alright on so a pretty good week .. especially happy with gettting zone under the td , tcu at the two td and not above , and on the right side of two HUGE totals moves with under in tamu and under in miamifl.
gl tomorrow gang .... feel like a kid in the candy store right now with winning that game tonight.
it has been a long time since i felt that lucky to win a game .. forgot how good it feels. mad that i capped it wrong but glad to finally cap one wrong and win anyway.
3rd & Long
Tom Brady is a douchebag
Aztec4Life
Montezuma Mesa Survivor
Nice job Kyle!
:cheers:
:cheers:
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
lsu +4 loser
tcu -14 loser
louisville -6.5 winner
arizona -6 loser
ucf/miamiflorida under 52 winner
utahst/sjsu over 47 loser
michst/nw over 45.5 winner
miamioh/niu over 41.5 loser
kansasst/tamu under 63.5 loser
FAU +4.5 LOSER
notre dame +7.5 winner
iowa -5 winner
miami ohio +11.5 winner
bowling green pickem winner
all in all a bad day of 7-7. lots of juice hurts.
updated through week 6
overall 41-36-2
Sides 25-27-2
moneyline dogs 0-1
totals 16-8
tcu -14 loser
louisville -6.5 winner
arizona -6 loser
ucf/miamiflorida under 52 winner
utahst/sjsu over 47 loser
michst/nw over 45.5 winner
miamioh/niu over 41.5 loser
kansasst/tamu under 63.5 loser
FAU +4.5 LOSER
notre dame +7.5 winner
iowa -5 winner
miami ohio +11.5 winner
bowling green pickem winner
all in all a bad day of 7-7. lots of juice hurts.
updated through week 6
overall 41-36-2
Sides 25-27-2
moneyline dogs 0-1
totals 16-8
hoopsstar22
Captain of Vanzack's yacht
Looks exactly like my day yesterday, although I was manage to ring out a whole $13 profit.
You'd think one of these weeks we'd be able to get ahead.
You'd think one of these weeks we'd be able to get ahead.
Similar threads
