2008 college football -- time to post my week 7 card so far

[pags11]

sportnut,

La. Tech QB Taylor Bennett has struggled in EVERY one of La. Tech's games this year...I highly doubt things change Saturday...the way to expose Hawaii's defense is through the air...this is just a very tough match-up for La. Tech going from Ruston, LA to the islands...this game will start at 11 PM CST...also I watched the entire Hawaii vs. Fresno St. and with the exception of Fresno hitting a couple of big pass plays, I thought their defense performed very well...just my two cents, but I feel Hawaii is the play in this one...

 

[SportsNut]

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=560 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=275><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblhead><TH colSpan=6>Hawaii Drives</TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>1st Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>14:55 </TD><TD class=c>1:22 </TD><TD class=c>Haw 19</TD><TD class=c>4</TD><TD class=c>37</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>8:15 </TD><TD class=c>2:37 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 30</TD><TD class=c>5</TD><TD class=c>12</TD><TD class=c>FG</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>1:27 </TD><TD class=c>3:31 </TD><TD class=c>Haw 38</TD><TD class=c>8</TD><TD class=c>50</TD><TD class=c>FG</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>2nd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>12:51 </TD><TD class=c>0:54 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 27</TD><TD class=c>2</TD><TD class=c>27</TD><TD class=c>TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>6:10 </TD><TD class=c>3:40 </TD><TD class=c>Haw 8</TD><TD class=c>6</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>1:20 </TD><TD class=c>1:20 </TD><TD class=c>Haw 17</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>5</TD><TD class=c>End Half</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>3rd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>13:27 </TD><TD class=c>1:10 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 11</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>11</TD><TD class=c>TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>12:00 </TD><TD class=c>0:10 </TD><TD class=c>Haw 21</TD><TD class=c>1</TD><TD class=c>5</TD><TD class=c>Fumble</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>11:20 </TD><TD class=c>1:47 </TD><TD class=c>Haw 24</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>-6</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>8:10 </TD><TD class=c>4:42 </TD><TD class=c>Haw 28</TD><TD class=c>9</TD><TD class=c>49</TD><TD class=c>FG</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>4th Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>15:00 </TD><TD class=c>2:48 </TD><TD class=c>Haw 16</TD><TD class=c>5</TD><TD class=c>24</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>8:25 </TD><TD class=c>2:54 </TD><TD class=c>Haw 37</TD><TD class=c>6</TD><TD class=c>32</TD><TD class=c>FG Miss</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>0:37 </TD><TD class=c>0:37 </TD><TD class=c>Haw 37</TD><TD class=c>4</TD><TD class=c>40</TD><TD class=c>-</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>OT </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>- </TD><TD class=c>- </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 25</TD><TD class=c>4</TD><TD class=c>9</TD><TD class=c>FG</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width=10></TD><TD vAlign=top width=275><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblhead><TH colSpan=6>Fresno St. Drives</TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>1st Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>13:33 </TD><TD class=c>5:01 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 10</TD><TD class=c>12</TD><TD class=c>84</TD><TD class=c>FG</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>8:15 </TD><TD class=c>0:00 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 30</TD><TD class=c>1</TD><TD class=c>0</TD><TD class=c>Fumble</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>5:30 </TD><TD class=c>4:03 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 25</TD><TD class=c>8</TD><TD class=c>37</TD><TD class=c>Fumble</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>2nd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>12:56 </TD><TD class=c>0:05 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 20</TD><TD class=c>1</TD><TD class=c>0</TD><TD class=c>Int</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>11:48 </TD><TD class=c>5:28 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 20</TD><TD class=c>13</TD><TD class=c>80</TD><TD class=c>TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>2:30 </TD><TD class=c>1:10 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 45</TD><TD class=c>5</TD><TD class=c>31</TD><TD class=c>Int</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>3rd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>14:50 </TD><TD class=c>1:23 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 16</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>4</TD><TD class=c>Int</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>12:17 </TD><TD class=c>0:12 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 20</TD><TD class=c>1</TD><TD class=c>80</TD><TD class=c>TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>11:50 </TD><TD class=c>0:30 </TD><TD class=c>Haw 26</TD><TD class=c>1</TD><TD class=c>2</TD><TD class=c>Fumble</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>9:33 </TD><TD class=c>1:15 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 41</TD><TD class=c>5</TD><TD class=c>44</TD><TD class=c>FG</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>3:20 </TD><TD class=c>3:13 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 29</TD><TD class=c>8</TD><TD class=c>55</TD><TD class=c>FG</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>4th Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>12:12 </TD><TD class=c>3:38 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 30</TD><TD class=c>9</TD><TD class=c>70</TD><TD class=c>TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>5:31 </TD><TD class=c>4:54 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 31</TD><TD class=c>7</TD><TD class=c>50</TD><TD class=c>FG Miss</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>OT </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>- </TD><TD class=c>- </TD><TD class=c>Haw 25</TD><TD class=c>4</TD><TD class=c>8</TD><TD class=c>FG Miss</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Hawaii made 2 mistakes a fumble and missed FG then Fresno had 3 fumbles and 3 Ints plus 2 crucial late missed FGs.

 

[RetroVK]

gyne -- yeah i waited too long.

bluechip -- our hesitation has made it hard on us to play now.

pags -- yeah carroll will keep scoring if he can.

sportsnut -- i understand not wanting to back what may be the worst team in a bcs conference ... just think its hard to get up every week and it has been an emotional stretch for osu lately. Also note that while oregon st has been improving each week offensively and defensively that their offensive style isn't really big play oriented .. they grind out first downs. i think wash st deserves a look ... as for hawaii i just think its a tough roadie for a bad road team and the qb play of taylor bennett is almost unwatchable. They will have to succeed running to compete or win the turnover margin.

 

[RetroVK]

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=560 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=275><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblhead><TH colSpan=6>Hawaii Drives</TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>1st Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time
</TH><TH>Time
Poss
</TH><TH>Drive
Began
</TH><TH># of
Plays
</TH><TH>Yards
Gained
</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>14:55 </TD><TD class=c>1:22 </TD><TD class=c>Haw 19</TD><TD class=c>4</TD><TD class=c>37</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>8:15 </TD><TD class=c>2:37 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 30</TD><TD class=c>5</TD><TD class=c>12</TD><TD class=c>FG</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>1:27 </TD><TD class=c>3:31 </TD><TD class=c>Haw 38</TD><TD class=c>8</TD><TD class=c>50</TD><TD class=c>FG</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6></TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>2nd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time
</TH><TH>Time
Poss
</TH><TH>Drive
Began
</TH><TH># of
Plays
</TH><TH>Yards
Gained
</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>12:51 </TD><TD class=c>0:54 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 27</TD><TD class=c>2</TD><TD class=c>27</TD><TD class=c>TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>6:10 </TD><TD class=c>3:40 </TD><TD class=c>Haw 8</TD><TD class=c>6</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>1:20 </TD><TD class=c>1:20 </TD><TD class=c>Haw 17</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>5</TD><TD class=c>End Half</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6></TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>3rd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time
</TH><TH>Time
Poss
</TH><TH>Drive
Began
</TH><TH># of
Plays
</TH><TH>Yards
Gained
</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>13:27 </TD><TD class=c>1:10 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 11</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>11</TD><TD class=c>TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>12:00 </TD><TD class=c>0:10 </TD><TD class=c>Haw 21</TD><TD class=c>1</TD><TD class=c>5</TD><TD class=c>Fumble</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>11:20 </TD><TD class=c>1:47 </TD><TD class=c>Haw 24</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>-6</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>8:10 </TD><TD class=c>4:42 </TD><TD class=c>Haw 28</TD><TD class=c>9</TD><TD class=c>49</TD><TD class=c>FG</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6></TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>4th Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time
</TH><TH>Time
Poss
</TH><TH>Drive
Began
</TH><TH># of
Plays
</TH><TH>Yards
Gained
</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>15:00 </TD><TD class=c>2:48 </TD><TD class=c>Haw 16</TD><TD class=c>5</TD><TD class=c>24</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>8:25 </TD><TD class=c>2:54 </TD><TD class=c>Haw 37</TD><TD class=c>6</TD><TD class=c>32</TD><TD class=c>FG Miss</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>0:37 </TD><TD class=c>0:37 </TD><TD class=c>Haw 37</TD><TD class=c>4</TD><TD class=c>40</TD><TD class=c>-</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6></TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>OT </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time
</TH><TH>Time
Poss
</TH><TH>Drive
Began
</TH><TH># of
Plays
</TH><TH>Yards
Gained
</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>- </TD><TD class=c>- </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 25</TD><TD class=c>4</TD><TD class=c>9</TD><TD class=c>FG</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width=10></TD><TD vAlign=top width=275><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblhead><TH colSpan=6>Fresno St. Drives</TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>1st Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time
</TH><TH>Time
Poss
</TH><TH>Drive
Began
</TH><TH># of
Plays
</TH><TH>Yards
Gained
</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>13:33 </TD><TD class=c>5:01 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 10</TD><TD class=c>12</TD><TD class=c>84</TD><TD class=c>FG</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>8:15 </TD><TD class=c>0:00 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 30</TD><TD class=c>1</TD><TD class=c>0</TD><TD class=c>Fumble</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>5:30 </TD><TD class=c>4:03 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 25</TD><TD class=c>8</TD><TD class=c>37</TD><TD class=c>Fumble</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6></TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>2nd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time
</TH><TH>Time
Poss
</TH><TH>Drive
Began
</TH><TH># of
Plays
</TH><TH>Yards
Gained
</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>12:56 </TD><TD class=c>0:05 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 20</TD><TD class=c>1</TD><TD class=c>0</TD><TD class=c>Int</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>11:48 </TD><TD class=c>5:28 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 20</TD><TD class=c>13</TD><TD class=c>80</TD><TD class=c>TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>2:30 </TD><TD class=c>1:10 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 45</TD><TD class=c>5</TD><TD class=c>31</TD><TD class=c>Int</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6></TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>3rd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time
</TH><TH>Time
Poss
</TH><TH>Drive
Began
</TH><TH># of
Plays
</TH><TH>Yards
Gained
</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>14:50 </TD><TD class=c>1:23 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 16</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>4</TD><TD class=c>Int</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>12:17 </TD><TD class=c>0:12 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 20</TD><TD class=c>1</TD><TD class=c>80</TD><TD class=c>TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>11:50 </TD><TD class=c>0:30 </TD><TD class=c>Haw 26</TD><TD class=c>1</TD><TD class=c>2</TD><TD class=c>Fumble</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>9:33 </TD><TD class=c>1:15 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 41</TD><TD class=c>5</TD><TD class=c>44</TD><TD class=c>FG</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>3:20 </TD><TD class=c>3:13 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 29</TD><TD class=c>8</TD><TD class=c>55</TD><TD class=c>FG</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6></TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>4th Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time
</TH><TH>Time
Poss
</TH><TH>Drive
Began
</TH><TH># of
Plays
</TH><TH>Yards
Gained
</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>12:12 </TD><TD class=c>3:38 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 30</TD><TD class=c>9</TD><TD class=c>70</TD><TD class=c>TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>5:31 </TD><TD class=c>4:54 </TD><TD class=c>FrSt 31</TD><TD class=c>7</TD><TD class=c>50</TD><TD class=c>FG Miss</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6></TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>OT </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time
</TH><TH>Time
Poss
</TH><TH>Drive
Began
</TH><TH># of
Plays
</TH><TH>Yards
Gained
</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>- </TD><TD class=c>- </TD><TD class=c>Haw 25</TD><TD class=c>4</TD><TD class=c>8</TD><TD class=c>FG Miss</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Hawaii made 2 mistakes a fumble and missed FG then Fresno had 3 fumbles and 3 Ints plus 2 crucial late missed FGs.

right but i am saying there is a significant difference between being on the road against a slightly above average fresno team as compared to at home vs a well below average latech team. fresno can do things offensively that latech cant.

 

[SportsNut]

sportnut,

La. Tech QB Taylor Bennett has struggled in EVERY one of La. Tech's games this year...I highly doubt things change Saturday...the way to expose Hawaii's defense is through the air...this is just a very tough match-up for La. Tech going from Ruston, LA to the islands...this game will start at 11 PM CST...also I watched the entire Hawaii vs. Fresno St. and with the exception of Fresno hitting a couple of big pass plays, I thought their defense performed very well...just my two cents, but I feel Hawaii is the play in this one...

Thanks Pags ! havent spoken much in awhile but appreciate it though . I guess then maybe of the two the UNDER looks best . I cant back Hawaii here as they havent shown any improvement on offense and coming off there 1st road win ever vs ranked a team I believe . They did allow 300+ yds on about 45 carries plus those big pass plays you mentioned .

Bennett has been bad but some good defenses when you host Miss State of the SEC and playing at Kansas and Boise State are under the radar defenses IMO . More so Boise but scoring @ Kansas doesnt seem to be that easy for mid major teams.

Guess I see a similiar type game like SJST . SJ gets some respect here but that Hawaii game was the 1st time outside of Latech and Utah State they had topped 14 on the road past 2 seasons. Can Latech at least duplicate that ?? Granted most of the 20 came thanks to field position but whose to say they cant get some decent field position ...

Tough one and appreciate the thoughts . I'll stay away from a side and look more at the under for now.

good Luck bro !:cheers:

 

[pags11]

reading a box score is just not the same as observing the games sportsnut, I'm sure you will agree...can you tell in a box score whether a fumble was forced by a good tackle? or if an interception was made on a highly athletic play?...unfortunately you can't...I'm just going off what my eyes have seen from three of La. Tech's games and three of Hawaii's games...I understood SJSU +3, but I don't feel the La. Tech side presents value based on the current play/ schedule strength of these two teams...do you really want to take a team that struggled at home vs. Southeast Louisiana with a QB who is laughing in the huddle when his team is down by 17 at Boise?...I know we will have to agree to disagree, but I have a pretty good handle on this conference and have a tough time with someone advocating the La. Tech side here...QB Funaki is mobile and brings an added dimension to the Hawaii offense (which ironically has become much more balanced)...BOL to you...:cheers:

kyle,

my apologies for side-tracking your thread...

 

[RetroVK]

sportnut,

La. Tech QB Taylor Bennett has struggled in EVERY one of La. Tech's games this year...I highly doubt things change Saturday...the way to expose Hawaii's defense is through the air...this is just a very tough match-up for La. Tech going from Ruston, LA to the islands...this game will start at 11 PM CST...also I watched the entire Hawaii vs. Fresno St. and with the exception of Fresno hitting a couple of big pass plays, I thought their defense performed very well...just my two cents, but I feel Hawaii is the play in this one...

i agree. He is often referred to as a cerebral qb. That is code for he has a bad arm ..... and i have watched him several times this year .. boise , miss st ... and he just doesnt make cerebral decisions on the football field.

 

[RetroVK]

nice discussion fellas .. as long as i have you guys here right now .... a game has jumped on my radar for a play ... it is notre dame +7.5 or more. thoughts please.

 

[pags11]

funny you mention that game Kyle, as I was pondering that game...I really am starting to think ND can hang in the game...I'm not saying it's a strong lean for me or anything, but I will say that I feel ND +7.5 this week is a much stronger play that UConn +7.5 was last week...I watched most of Charlie Weis's press conference today and he sounded pretty upbeat (compared to most of them last year)...

 

[HUNT]

yo kyle..thoughts on UT/Oklahoma?

I'm thinking of giving New Mexico some love against BYU...I think they can hang.

 

[HUNT]

pags in da house

 

[HUNT]

we will definately have Iowa in common.. Best .500ish team in the country. Mismatch. You don't need the education on Iowa ..You see what I see. They are very good and just have not caught a break... SHHHHH

"secret:

Personally, to me, a team that doesn't get breaks is a bad team.

 

[pags11]

huntdog,

thanks man...I listened to the second half of the BYU game last week and didn't like the way they finished that one...I'm not a big proponent of playing against BYU at home, but I do feel the UNM side presents some value this week...

 

[RetroVK]

funny you mention that game Kyle, as I was pondering that game...I really am starting to think ND can hang in the game...I'm not saying it's a strong lean for me or anything, but I will say that I feel ND +7.5 this week is a much stronger play that UConn +7.5 was last week...I watched most of Charlie Weis's press conference today and he sounded pretty upbeat (compared to most of them last year)...

low scoring game ... reminds me of when we were talking about the iowa game last week ,.... if iowa scores the first td it will be hard to lose ... i see this game similarly. unc had just 13 fd vs uconn , 16 fd vs miamifl , 14 fd vs VT , and just 18 fd vs rutgers ..... not the kind of offense that i think should be laying this to a decent team.

 

[SportsNut]

right but i am saying there is a significant difference between being on the road against a slightly above average fresno team as compared to at home vs a well below average latech team. fresno can do things offensively that latech cant.

I agree VK. I still think Hawaii can be mistake prone on offense and possiblyhelp giving Latech good field position at times . I mean this team trailed 17-7 at half at home to Weber State and lost 20-17 to SJST thanks to turnovers .

Does the extra time help LaTech with the trip to Hawaii ? Does the quick turn around after Fresno hurt the Rainbows ?

Bennett has ben terrible but those 3 defenses seem like much tougher tasks then Hawaii's.

part of the point of posting the drive chart was to show how many breaks Hawaii needed to saty in that game .....Fresno had basically 8 turnovers if we count the FG misses .

Miscues ?
Fresno after going 84 yds settles for a FG ( -4 pts)
1st and 10 at the Hawaii 37 QB fumbles (lose probably at worst a FG attempt)
INT when starting at the Hawaii 24 (lose at least a FG attempt)
Fumble on Hawaii 24 (again lose at least FG attempt)
stall at the 15 of Hawaii and FG ( lose out on 4 pts)
stall at the 16of Hawaii and FG (lose out on 4 pts)
FG attempt to win after stalling at the hawaii 19 (missed -3pts)
FG miss in OT (-3pts)

So Fresno had 3 drives stall at the Hawaii 6 ,15 and 16 and that left 12 pts OTB getting 9 instead of 21 . Matter of execution .
So Fresno had 3 possessions end in turnover in Hawaii territory costing them probably at worst 3 FG attempts and anywhere from 9-21 pts)
So Fresno missed 2 FGs late and that cost them 6 pts

They indirectly cheated themselves of 18 pts by settling for 3 instead of 7 and missing kicks for 3 . Plus the turnovers that cost them possession in field goal range and anywhere from 9 to 21 pts.....

They possibly left 27 pts off the board and maybe as many 40 points ....Also Hawaii forced NO punts that entire game in 14 possessions.....

So I agree with you but isnt Hawaii more Latech's level ? Isnt LaTech playing an inferior opponent after Miss State , @Kansas , @ Boise ....??

Hard for me to say ...:cheers:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

look good, bro. great line on tcu.

hawaii? how strongly do you like this?
i ask because i want to play it. what's kept me off it so far is the game against sjst...where they dominate everywhere except the turnover margin. the 0 to 6 turnover margin in that game was simply disgusting. then they follow it up with a road game where they protect the ball, lol.
just want to know which team is it gonna be on sat nite? the one giving it up 6 times, or the one protecting the ball?

 

[pags11]

great discussion here guys...

sportsnut, Hawaii's defense has had to face Florida, Oregon St., SJSU's (Kyle Reed is underrated and Yonus Davis is better than any back La. Tech has), and FSU (great offensive football team, not great on D)...how much easier is it going to be for Hawaii to defend La. Tech this week?...the Livas kid scares me, he's their playmaker, but fortunately Bennett has a tough time getting him the ball...Hawaii has three NFL prospects on their defense, which may surprise you...

yanks,

at that point Hawaii hadn't really gotten a handle with their QB situation, which I feel they do now...they've chosen their guy and have let him play through things and he's continually gotten better...I expect a good effort from him this weekend...the RB Pilares is very under the radar as well, averaging over six yards per carry and has 4 TDs...

 

[RetroVK]

"secret:

Personally, to me, a team that doesn't get breaks is a bad team.

true .. you make your own breaks .. but i agree with this more from a long term perspective than a short term one .. bad game from ferentz more than anything from iowa last week .. my card is getting kind or road chalky which makes me pause with the indy game.

as far as texas .. i think 7 is too much. Talking with some of my Texas guys that know oklahoma football they made notice of the fact of what beats ou offense is a decent pass rush .. ( see wv and col last year ) as you have to be able to get in bradfords face. Also note that ou runs a lot of deep patterns set up by play action from a successful running game .. when teams stop or contain that running game at all it becomes more difficult to complete those plays and that style of offense means the oline has to hold those blocks longer. i think muschamp can gameplan against this team. with that said , i think oklahoma is the favorite to win ... but Texs matches up well on paper if you get where i am going ...

 

[RetroVK]

look good, bro. great line on tcu.

hawaii? how strongly do you like this?
i ask because i want to play it. what's kept me off it so far is the game against sjst...where they dominate everywhere except the turnover margin. the 0 to 6 turnover margin in that game was simply disgusting. then they follow it up with a road game where they protect the ball, lol.
just want to know which team is it gonna be on sat nite? the one giving it up 6 times, or the one protecting the ball?

i would look more at how the team performed in general in that sjsu game. sjsu is a similar team to latech in my opinion only superior in that they have a good qb , a better rb and a better run defense. i like both coaches... so i think hawaii wins that sjsu game with any kind of ball control as you say ... sure i would actually expect hawaii to lose the turnover battle in this game by 1 on average ... that is the way they play .. aggressive .. big plays on offense and some big negative plays and turnovers .. in the past they overcome this but its harder this year and the 7 turnovers or whatever it was they had agaisnt sjsu was too much. also think hawaii is more likely to get the early lead and if latech has to rely on bennett to get back in it .. we may actually win the tirnover battle.

 

[RetroVK]

great discussion here guys...

sportsnut, Hawaii's defense has had to face Florida, Oregon St., SJSU's (Kyle Reed is underrated and Yonus Davis is better than any back La. Tech has), and FSU (great offensive football team, not great on D)...how much easier is it going to be for Hawaii to defend La. Tech this week?...the Livas kid scares me, he's their playmaker, but fortunately Bennett has a tough time getting him the ball...Hawaii has three NFL prospects on their defense, which may surprise you...

yanks,

at that point Hawaii hadn't really gotten a handle with their QB situation, which I feel they do now...they've chosen their guy and have let him play through things and he's continually gotten better...I expect a good effort from him this weekend...the RB Pilares is very under the radar as well, averaging over six yards per carry and has 4 TDs...

yeah , hawaii actually has better recruits than a normal hawaii team .. they just lack experience and they lack continuity at qb .. which i think was a bad coaching move when trying to learn the new system. Also if you look at the boxscore for the florida game ( i watched the game ) you will see that they didnt play badly there either .. another case of the turnover syndrome .. also the oregon st game doesnt look like as bad a loss anymore .. beavers are 30 point favs this week.

and not to be a broken record but .... latech cant win on the road and this is a tough tough road trip.

 

[HUNT]

Thanks VK

It just amazes me though that they were held to less than 50 yards against TCU and still rolled them (OU). Such a tough, tough game to cap imo.

Thanks Pags.. BYU is tough to bet against for sure, but I jsut gotta funny feeling about this week i guess...I will probably lay off though.

 

[RetroVK]

I agree VK. I still think Hawaii can be mistake prone on offense and possiblyhelp giving Latech good field position at times . I mean this team trailed 17-7 at half at home to Weber State and lost 20-17 to SJST thanks to turnovers .

Does the extra time help LaTech with the trip to Hawaii ? Does the quick turn around after Fresno hurt the Rainbows ?

Bennett has ben terrible but those 3 defenses seem like much tougher tasks then Hawaii's.

part of the point of posting the drive chart was to show how many breaks Hawaii needed to saty in that game .....Fresno had basically 8 turnovers if we count the FG misses .

Miscues ?
Fresno after going 84 yds settles for a FG ( -4 pts)
1st and 10 at the Hawaii 37 QB fumbles (lose probably at worst a FG attempt)
INT when starting at the Hawaii 24 (lose at least a FG attempt)
Fumble on Hawaii 24 (again lose at least FG attempt)
stall at the 15 of Hawaii and FG ( lose out on 4 pts)
stall at the 16of Hawaii and FG (lose out on 4 pts)
FG attempt to win after stalling at the hawaii 19 (missed -3pts)
FG miss in OT (-3pts)

So Fresno had 3 drives stall at the Hawaii 6 ,15 and 16 and that left 12 pts OTB getting 9 instead of 21 . Matter of execution .
So Fresno had 3 possessions end in turnover in Hawaii territory costing them probably at worst 3 FG attempts and anywhere from 9-21 pts)
So Fresno missed 2 FGs late and that cost them 6 pts

They indirectly cheated themselves of 18 pts by settling for 3 instead of 7 and missing kicks for 3 . Plus the turnovers that cost them possession in field goal range and anywhere from 9 to 21 pts.....

They possibly left 27 pts off the board and maybe as many 40 points ....Also Hawaii forced NO punts that entire game in 14 possessions.....

So I agree with you but isnt Hawaii more Latech's level ? Isnt LaTech playing an inferior opponent after Miss State , @Kansas , @ Boise ....??

Hard for me to say ...:cheers:

sorry nut , missed the post .... yes hawaii is more latechs level ... but isnt this a 6 point homefield ?? As i stated in my HFA thread ( and some others disagreed with me ) i make this the largest homefield in the country ... and it has nothing to do with fans.

hawaii minus 1 on a neutral ??? i dont think so but lets say you think the homefield is a 5 point .. minus 2 ?? i dont think so. Always tough to lay points with a bad/average football team but sometimes you should.

 

[RetroVK]

Thanks VK

It just amazes me though that they were held to less than 50 yards against TCU and still rolled them (OU). Such a tough, tough game to cap imo.

Thanks Pags.. BYU is tough to bet against for sure, but I jsut gotta funny feeling about this week i guess...I will probably lay off though.

i wont be betting it but if i were it would be texas. i agree .. tough to cap. I hear that the horns are actually confident going into this game. i can tell you that for a few years there , the sooners were in the horns heads ...but the horns have won two of the last three and last year as 11 point dogs they were one fumbled play at the ou goalline from winning/overtime. i was in attendance hehe.

 

[RetroVK]

on the byu unm game .. there is a chance for snow there .. as well as the tcu game i bet ....

rocky long is a solid coach and will run the football... if it is snowing .. that hinders the byu pass game a little as well. i wouldnt lay it with the cougars and whatever lean i have is to the huge dog. not a fan of betting against byu in provo though.

 

[RetroVK]

i have a deep seeded hatred for oklahoma football. One of their fans had to resort to "mom jokes" the last time i visited dallas state fair and the red river shootout.

i almost knocked his tooth out.

Just saying that i may have a bias for this particular game. getting that out there even though i dont think it effects what i am seeing in that game.

 

[SportsNut]

reading a box score is just not the same as observing the games sportsnut, I'm sure you will agree...can you tell in a box score whether a fumble was forced by a good tackle? or if an interception was made on a highly athletic play?...unfortunately you can't...I'm just going off what my eyes have seen from three of La. Tech's games and three of Hawaii's games...I understood SJSU +3, but I don't feel the La. Tech side presents value based on the current play/ schedule strength of these two teams...do you really want to take a team that struggled at home vs. Southeast Louisiana with a QB who is laughing in the huddle when his team is down by 17 at Boise?...I know we will have to agree to disagree, but I have a pretty good handle on this conference and have a tough time with someone advocating the La. Tech side here...QB Funaki is mobile and brings an added dimension to the Hawaii offense (which ironically has become much more balanced)...BOL to you...:cheers:

kyle,

my apologies for side-tracking your thread...

Actually I am big believer in not watching much of what I have action on . Which tends to be alot . Thave watched some more recently then normally but boxscores tell the story cut and dry . Whether a guy fumbles because its forced or not really doesnt matter much in the big plan . Rare that smaller programs do things based on athletic ability and if they do it tends to come from a raw player who cant duplicate it . Usually why he is playing at smaller program .

It has nothing to do with what will happen the next time that situation occurs . Thats the problem with watching for me just because it happens 3 out of 3 times doesnt mean anything in the 4th occurrence . Expect the unexpected type mentality and I do alot of stuff backwards I admit . I just think alot of things occur because of context . I dont have time to explain my whole thought process but put it this way everything that happens gets sort of mental grade and side note . Is OU forcing 6 turnovers vs a bad opponent important or relevant ? Probably not to me . Is the fact Hawaii had 6 turnovers one week at home then the following week plays a team who has 6 turnovers relevant ? Not really . It s just how the world works. To me patterns occur with everything . Understand the patterns and you can predict what will occur on some level . So the fact Hawaii turns it over 6 times and loses despite outplaying its ipponent then follows it with a duplicate game where it recieves 6 turnovers is just how things even out to me. What scares me is how hawaii could not stop Fresno on any possession . Granted Latech is not Fresno but the problem was similiar at Fla and Oregon State . Tests at home SJST and Weber State is it possible that LaTech is worse then those two ? Possible but I think they can be better just as easily . SJST does have the better defense of the two . They outplayed SJ and lost by 3 and needed to overcome a 10pt hole at half to a subdivision team and scored just 7 pts t make it worse.....

I dont care about about size , strength things like that . More interested in how the line is set and what context teams play under . Anything can happen on any given day ? The trick is why does it happen a certain way . Well Hawaii won at Fresno because the line was overinflated so does that create a now inflated Hawaii line . Its why so many dogs win ATS then SU in football IMO . Thinking Team A is so much better then Team B when its not in reality creates an illusion . So to earse that illusion then we need a clear occurrence to change perception . I know confusing shit jsut things I learned over the years and would make more sense if we sat together rather then me typing . This is gonna take me forever . Its why short undervakued favs tend to roll opponents as well and its why the old value play in sports tend to look attractive and lose ? The old why is so and so +200 dogs or +14 and then the get crushed or worst barely lose and people fool themselves into thinking the close loss was correct ..Anyway that doesnt really pertain to this game ....

I agree with your points but I tend to be the opposite of trusting my eyes because what everyone sees is different . Not that we disagree but no two people in the world see the samething even when they are looking at the samething . reason is we dont see with our eyes we see with our brains and everyone's brain interperts things differently. Which few realize . Seeing is believeing ? Not really because your brain interpts what you see .

I didnt agree with SJ +3 and played Hawaii to be honest . The Spartans are so overrated IMO on the road because it goes unnoticed they are usually good for just 10-14 pts but Hawaii gave them enough to win . I do like hawaii's more mobile offense but its hard to grade Latech because they had 3 tough defenses and 2 tough road teams . Didnt FIU suck @ Kansas and then win @ Toledo ? the SELA game they allowed some pass yards but 60 attempts so easily explained IMO and also defensive score .....

I respect your opinion and will probably just stay away from 2 teams I cant develop an acurate profile of . Which is what I tend to do . Think there is room for improvement on Latech side looking at the Boise game and what is Hawaii gonna do offensively ? The best production came in that 2nd H vs Weber ....maybe a little better latech offense gets 17 at Boise ...settled for a FG , TOD inside the 5 yd line and missed a long FG ...

How does Hawaii react after the upset ....Just debating no formal opinions just showing my crazy angles and thought process ....

If anything looking at the under ......:cheers::hang:

 

[RetroVK]

Back to notre dame ... i dont think unc can line up and dominate nd physically the way i see the ville doing to memphis. People are going to look at the unc final scores and see deceiving stuff .. they won the uconn game 38-12 but here is the boxscore ...

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left> </TD><TD>

</TD><TD>

</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>13</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency
</TD><TD>8-19</TD><TD>4-11</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>0-0</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>378</TD><TD>263</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>210</TD><TD>117</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>24-44</TD><TD>9-16</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>4.8</TD><TD>7.3</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>168</TD><TD>146</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>40</TD><TD>33</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>4.2</TD><TD>4.4</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>11-97</TD><TD>6-57</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>36:22</TD><TD>23:38</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


tehy won the miamifl game 28-24 but had no business winning ... and here is that box ....

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left> </TD><TD>

</TD><TD>

</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>18</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency
</TD><TD>6-13</TD><TD>8-16</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>0-0</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>299</TD><TD>309</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>264</TD><TD>174</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>13-24</TD><TD>22-33</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>11.0</TD><TD>5.3</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>135</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>33</TD><TD>33</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>1.1</TD><TD>4.1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>6-55</TD><TD>6-54</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>26:23</TD><TD>33:37</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

and they won the rutgers game when it was far more competitive than whatthe final score of 44-12 showed.. again look at the box ... btw i saw two of these three games and i talked to sirwinzalot and he saw a lot of the uconn game and wasnt impressed with unc much. ... here is the rutgers box ....

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left> </TD><TD>

</TD><TD>

</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>23</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency
</TD><TD>8-16</TD><TD>0-9</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>0-1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>378</TD><TD>383</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>221</TD><TD>243</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>14-23</TD><TD>25-43</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>9.6</TD><TD>5.7</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>157</TD><TD>140</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>38</TD><TD>29</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>4.1</TD><TD>4.8</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>3-24</TD><TD>5-35</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>30:35</TD><TD>29:25</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


thats some deceiving blowouts in my opinion. ND is not exactly new to the big game scenario either.

Notre dame is giving up just 19 a game and while the total level of competition hasnt been spectacuular purdue , mich st and michigan arent slouches either.

Nore Dame seems to be improving each week as well which i like .. really starting to fall in love with this dog ...

 

[SportsNut]

great discussion here guys...

sportsnut, Hawaii's defense has had to face Florida, Oregon St., SJSU's (Kyle Reed is underrated and Yonus Davis is better than any back La. Tech has), and FSU (great offensive football team, not great on D)...how much easier is it going to be for Hawaii to defend La. Tech this week?...the Livas kid scares me, he's their playmaker, but fortunately Bennett has a tough time getting him the ball...Hawaii has three NFL prospects on their defense, which may surprise you...

yanks,

at that point Hawaii hadn't really gotten a handle with their QB situation, which I feel they do now...they've chosen their guy and have let him play through things and he's continually gotten better...I expect a good effort from him this weekend...the RB Pilares is very under the radar as well, averaging over six yards per carry and has 4 TDs...

All true Pags . The problem is while its an easier task they havent even done a remotely good job either . While SJST has more talent it doesnt actually get more production. The Yankees have the most talented lineup everytime they play but once could ask how do they not score enough runs . SJ does not score on the road all of last year they broke 14 twice and look at this year 12 Nebraska , 14 Stanford and 20 Hawaii thinks to mistakes . Talent is important but profiling a team is more important . Like some offenses are great but leave point OTB always while some might bot be as good but get higher ppg . I adjust expectations for that .

I am not saying Hawaii lacks defensive talent but the repeated lack of execution is worrisome . I am not impressed by Fresno's offense mostly because its QB is not very good . So I think a good defense can hold them in check and really thats what happens. Fresno moved the ball vs Hawaii , Toledo and so on but Wisky and Rutgers decent or better defenses gave them problems .

LaTech has not shown they can score so I wont expect them to do much say 17 pts if I can realistically feel comfortable with that and the fact Hawaii wont break 24 that would be of greatest influence to my decision. Might not be right at the end of the game but what I look to do...

What I agree with is the Hawaii QB situation. Its reasonable to expect progress as you mentioned doing what they have done.

All I know is i have crossed this game off my wish list. So Thanks for the constructive arguing ..

 

[SportsNut]

sorry nut , missed the post .... yes hawaii is more latechs level ... but isnt this a 6 point homefield ?? As i stated in my HFA thread ( and some others disagreed with me ) i make this the largest homefield in the country ... and it has nothing to do with fans.

hawaii minus 1 on a neutral ??? i dont think so but lets say you think the homefield is a 5 point .. minus 2 ?? i dont think so. Always tough to lay points with a bad/average football team but sometimes you should.

very fair point VK. My thought process was have they lost some of that edge this year . Especially since they struggled with Weber down 10 at half and outplayed SJ and lost by 3 or is it the perfect spot to reclaim that HFA ?

If Miss State was only -7 and lost @ LaTech it just might be a pretty even number bewteen LaTech and Hawaii ....would Hawaii be with in 10 pts of Miss State on a neutral field ? :cheers:

 

[RetroVK]

very fair point VK. My thought process was have they lost some of that edge this year . Especially since they struggled with Weber down 10 at half and outplayed SJ and lost by 3 or is it the perfect spot to reclaim that HFA ?

If Miss State was only -7 and lost @ LaTech it just might be a pretty even number bewteen LaTech and Hawaii ....would Hawaii be with in 10 pts of Miss State on a neutral field ? :cheers:

i doubt it ... but i wouldnt be in any rush to lay points with the missst offense either.

 

[SportsNut]

Without wasting more of your space I would agree in fading BYU and riding ND. I faded BYU at Utah State for thesimple reason that offense is overrated and if you take away the pass attack even more so because so much of it is short passes and the occassional big play usually more to a guy getting "lost" in coverage. NM not sure how they are doing it either on offense but not a big buyer in BYU and they will live off those shutouts reputation wise for awhile IMO . ND making strides each week and there game @ Mich State was much closer then the final . Even Stanford they allowed the Cards to rally . So looking at this for both sides here anything above a TD seems like nice value . Cant believe UCOnn who was about +8 is on ND level and as you said misleading final ......

:cheers:

 

[Aztec4Life]

kyle - I want to make a play on LOU -6.5, but...what is Cantwell's status? Per my knowledge, he's Questionable. Also, the Cardinals will be playing their first road game this season, traveling to face a very productive Memphis offense. In their last five games, Memphis has averaged a total of 465 yards/game on offense. However...Louisville will most certainly be the toughest defense they've faced to this point.

If you can, talk me INTO this play...

:shake:

^

?

:shake:

 

[LooseOnTheLead]

VK..if NC cant get the magic number of 28, which i doubt, they will have little chance of covering this number.Like it alot..GL as always

 

[Blue_Chip]

blue chip,

I learned many years ago that it's a losing proposition trying to beat Pete Carroll regularly, especially this week...so what if you get three or four more points, is it really worth going through what he will put you through and the ASU side on Saturday?...

I think you misunderstood me; I'm looking to bet USC laying the pts. I locked it in at 27.5

 

[CapTwo]

I think you misunderstood me; I'm looking to bet USC laying the pts. I locked it in at 27.5

good to hear, that ones on my radar too...

dont see ASU breaking 10 points in this one

 

[Actionman]

very fair point VK. My thought process was have they lost some of that edge this year . Especially since they struggled with Weber down 10 at half and outplayed SJ and lost by 3 or is it the perfect spot to reclaim that HFA ?

If Miss State was only -7 and lost @ LaTech it just might be a pretty even number bewteen LaTech and Hawaii ....would Hawaii be with in 10 pts of Miss State on a neutral field ? :cheers:

SN and Vegaskyle,

I based my play on SJ St at Hawaii on Hawaii's game vs Weber St. Apparently Weber St is better than rated because they were also in the game early with Utah. And that made NO sense for them to be -12 over Oregon St who just beat USC. Apparently Weber St is BTL!

Sometimes these 1AA teams can be a good gauge how the 1A teams perform against them. The 1AA coaches can be also underrated. Last night I went along with you guys on Fla Atl. One reason was I thought they had a coaching advantage with Howard and discounted the coaching revenge angle. I didn't put Coach Larry Blakeney in the payback equation for paying back Fla Atl for knocking them out of the game bowl last year. His resume is really impressive as he is in in his 18th year at Troy and has built the program from scratch going from Division II and 1AA teams on up. It is by no accident he has had his teams playing so competively with teams like Ohio St, Georgia, Florida St. etc. He is a Top Coach! And he had beaten Fla Atl three out of four times with the only loss last season for the conference championship. The 4 1/2 pts were too much to pass up and they could have won or covered, but the HB loss to MT put too much pressure on Fla Atl. If I had it to do over again I would pass and just play the total under 27 and 54, but Hindsight is 20/20!:smiley_acbe:

I like to go against teams who are double digit dogs one week and then favored the following week. I jumped on LT plus 7 1/2, but have washed it out and need Hawaii to cover the juice because you both have made a very valid case. Thanks for your input!:shake:

 

[RetroVK]

added four plays

notre dame +7.5
iowa -5
miami ohio +11.5
bgsu pickem

i believe i am done for the week. i promised myself i wouldnt lay over 3td much if at all this year and it is going to take a lot to make me back away from that and the remaining leans that i like the most are usc and tulsa ....both lines that i let get away a little bit so now i have to break a personal rule to play them and take much the worst of the number to play them. for that reason those two wont be played ... but i cant say that they arent good bets .. just a personal principle to my capping style that i feel i need to be a bit rigid about. take it for what its worth , which may not be much

will now give my thoughts on why louisville is a good play in answer to post a few above and then respond to other posts.

 

[SportsNut]

So true Actionman about the coaching . Myself I wasnt down on Troy or didnt believe they wanted to win this game . I simply felt that FAu needed some home cooking to get there heads straightened out but as we saw yesterday its more then just execution plaguing this team. The ST gaffes are unexceptable for your players to not be aware of the wind ? The kid had no clue and didnt seem like anyone did either that the ball was gonna land right on his dome ! Sure the wind ca make you look foolish and knock the ball down but is was if no one even entertained the thought the wind could play with the ball on tha kick . From the offensive gameplan . Why they didnt run much more and use there different backs in certain situations. To continue to put pressure on Rusty Smith to make plays when he is struggling and seemingly a bit of a hot head . One thing I hated is him arguing about the INT right before half expecting the guy to curl or something in .. if your not on the same page with someone doesnt just throw the ball and hope they will be there and blame the other guy for running the wrong route . Thats what timing is . Knowing the guy will be there wihen you release it . I hate when I play hoops and guys just throw passes that go out of bounds and bitch about who didnt cut or whatever . Possession of the ball whether it be hoops or football is so important and critical yet no one gets it . Whats better ? Throwing a pass in traffic expecting the guy to do what you want , throwing a pass in hoops to the spot where you expect a guy to be Or holding the ball and pulling back when you have that split second of doubt if he is gonna be there and do something else ....team is poorly run and I am sure there offensive issues are heavily due to play calling . Those 2 trick plays tell it all . You just took the ball 50 yds and are off a 30yd pass play and haventreally attempted to run the ball . So why the trick RB option ???Why on the 40 on 1st down through a flea flicker in a 10 pt game ? Just move the ball call those type plays when everything is going well for you . Not when your often 2 1/2 sloppy games ....

Props to Troy for just protecting the ball and making plays all night when they had to. Dont think they are very good and Okie State sort of proves that but nothing wrong with a team that plays fundamental ball and doesnt beat themselves . In the NFL they call that the TITANS !

My regret is not paying attention to the weather. Somehow I missed that the field could be wet and again . Wet ball tougher to catch , wet ground tougher to tackle amd so on so mobility and speed are great assets for an offense along with a running game which Justin Hampton proved ...

:cheers:That loss HURT big time as I definetly played way to much on it but seriously didnt expect that type sloppy effort ....

 

[RetroVK]

Originally Posted by Aztec4Life
kyle - I want to make a play on LOU -6.5, but...what is Cantwell's status? Per my knowledge, he's Questionable. Also, the Cardinals will be playing their first road game this season, traveling to face a very productive Memphis offense. In their last five games, Memphis has averaged a total of 465 yards/game on offense. However...Louisville will most certainly be the toughest defense they've faced to this point.

If you can, talk me INTO this play...




Alright lets look at why I like Louisville in this spot..

The first thing to address as far as I am concerned is the Memphis defense which has been nothing short of atrocious. They are giving up 6.3 yards per play which is the same amount that Washington state and Syracuse are giving up per play this year. What I find interesting here is the level of their competition has been poor. As you may recall last week I made a point of showing why Illinois defensive stats were bad looking but not as bad as you might think because all of the offenses they played against were high powered and they outperformed those teams averages. The same applies here in my opinion.

Memphis played the following teams and gave up the following vs. them defensively …

UAB had 455 total yards and average 386 per game ……………….avg 6.1 yards per play
Arkansas state had 352 yards of offense and average 463 a game ….avg 5.8 per play
Marshall had 403 yards of offense and averages 327 per game ….avg 5.1 yards per play
Rice had 430 yards of offense and averages 429 per game ……….avg 5.8 per play
Ole miss had 438 yards of offense and averages 382 yards per game avg 6.2 per play

Louisville averages 435 yards per game and averages 5.8 per play. And as you can see the Memphis defense has underperformed in relation to how teams normally perform against other defenses.

What I find significant about this is that Louisville has played better defenses … Kentucky , uconn and Kansas state ( as putrid as it is ) are all likely superior to what the ville will see in this game. And Louisville consistently outperforms other offenses that face their opponents.

Kansas st gives up 5.5 per play
Kentucky 4.3 per play ( that bad performance week 1 doesn’t look nearly as bad for ville )
Uconn 5.1 yards per play.

Note the level of competition here … only ole miss is going to finish with a record above .500 in my estimation from that first list of teams and in my opinion this is by far the toughest offense they will have faced.

To break this down in simple terms , you have an offense that consistently does better vs. their opponents defense than average facing a defense that consistently allows other offenses to perform above their season averages.

To continue on the matchup of the ville vs. Memphis ont his side of the ball I want to point out what I have seen with my own eyes when watching Memphis …. These dudes cant tackle for anything. The cardinals dominated Kansas state and uconn at the line of scrimmage and i have no reason to believe that does not occur here.

Cantwell should be at full health basically according to most reports so little concern there.

On the opposite side of the ball you have a prolific Memphis offense. They average 462 yards per game but again … Arkansas state , uab , marshall and rice are bad defensively. Ron English has turned it around for the Louisville defense who has also outperformed the average .

The cardinals are giving up just 4.3 yards per play ….. The offenses they faced …….
Kansas state 6.1 yards per play
Uconn 5.4 yards per play
Kentucky 4.8 yards per play

You see what I mean ??

Now in watching Memphis I find two things interesting offensively , the first Is that Arkelon Hall does not throw a good ball. The second is that they have a very talented and tall receiver in Carlos Singleton. The kid is 6-8 ,,,,, tough matchup for a lot of those conference usa opponents …but Louisville actually practices against similar every day as they have a 6-8 wr of their own named chichester. … my point is they should be more prepared on how to combat that size than an average team … same is true of Memphis of course in defending chichester … but the difference to me is that Cantwell is delivering balls to chichester and Hall is throwing to singleton … one is a bad college qb and the other is going to be drafted into the nfl … though I cant see him panning out with his mechanics.

As I mentioned earlier , Memphis struggles to tackle and I think that’s a problem for a team facing a lot of fresh runners as the ville will throw bolen , powell and Anderson at you and they all run hard.

If there is one area of concern it would be the kicking game of Louisville compared to that of Memphis .

This will be one of , if not the only games all year where the cardinals might actually have a coaching edge.

Another angle I want to discuss is the fact that the ville let uconn steal one against them last time on national television. They completely dominated the huskies but let them hang around and eventually lost the game .. I think this gives them extra incentive to not take the foot off the gas pedal here.

This is a physical mismatch in my estimation …

 

[RetroVK]

VK..if NC cant get the magic number of 28, which i doubt, they will have little chance of covering this number.Like it alot..GL as always

agreed. I believe they will need to win the turnover battle significantly to get to 28 or more... i played nd today

 

[RetroVK]

I think you misunderstood me; I'm looking to bet USC laying the pts. I locked it in at 27.5

smarter man than me .. gonna have to watch you cash.

 

[RetroVK]

good to hear, that ones on my radar too...

dont see ASU breaking 10 points in this one

dont knwo enough about the kdi taking snaps ... but its ahrd to envision them getting much more than that.

 

[RetroVK]

actionman, sportsnut

The coaching was bad no doubt guys in that FAu game .. and there were some questionable calls on the field as well ( fg ?? bad spot from 12 to 10 ) but in the end it boiled down to flukish plays ... bad snap to the four yardline results in td and the kickoff that hit top of the TE head that resulted in Troy points ... take away those two flukish plays and the owls atleast cover.

The problem i have with the flea flicker call , sportsnut goes well beyond bad timing in my opinion .. it cant work because you never established the run .. Troy had no respect for the run and the END didnt even flinch at the rb having the ball he was so intent on getting to the spot where rusty smith stands and throws on what seemed like every down ... that particular trick play requires the opponent expecting and respecting the run and "weekend at Bernies" never did that.

i have no problem with the bet at +4.5 .. just didnt pan out... i think we are overanalyzing the game at this point .. flukish special teams plays happen sometimes and this time it was to our side of the bet .. maybe nest time we catch every single possible break in a game.

 

[nawlins51]

VK why do you like Miami of Ohio. I am leaning very strong on Northern Illy.I think NIU is going to open a case of whop ass and beat them by 20+.Just want to hear your thoughts and what you see. This is like that Troy game.I can't find a way for them not to cover.

 

[RetroVK]

VK why do you like Miami of Ohio. I am leaning very strong on Northern Illy.I think NIU is going to open a case of whop ass and beat them by 20+.Just want to hear your thoughts and what you see. This is like that Troy game.I can't find a way for them not to cover.

hehe well certainly you can see a lot of ways for troy to not cover this morning after watching FAU play as bad as they possible can and still have a chance at covering in the fourth quarter if the made fg had been called good.

will get back with you in a few on miami ohio ...

 

[nawlins51]

hehe well certainly you can see a lot of ways for troy to not cover this morning after watching FAU play as bad as they possible can and still have a chance at covering in the fourth quarter if the made fg had been called good.

will get back with you in a few on miami ohio ...

Shit Kyle I didn't even watch it.I was at work and we all watched the debate then argued for 2 hours. Then before the debate we all argued about the BCS and the way its set up.That was entertaining. I got a Miami die hard fan and a LSU die hard fan at each others face.HAHAHA then we ate some fried coconut shrimp with fries and mac cheese while watching the debate.After all that had to do some things at work then talked about women and everybody thinks their a pimp.You should hear that shit...lol.Of couse I am guilty too.

About the game - didn't watch it but was told a lot had to do with special teams.Well special teams make up 33% of a football team and thats overlooked by the casual fan but is very important part of winning or losing.

 

[RetroVK]

Shit Kyle I didn't even watch it.I was at work and we all watched the debate then argued for 2 hours. Then before the debate we all argued about the BCS and the way its set up.That was entertaining. I got a Miami die hard fan and a LSU die hard fan at each others face.HAHAHA then we ate some fried coconut shrimp with fries and mac cheese while watching the debate.After all that had to do some things at work then talked about women and everybody thinks their a pimp.You should hear that shit...lol.Of couse I am guilty too.

About the game - didn't watch it but was told a lot had to do with special teams.Well special teams make up 33% of a football team and thats overlooked by the casual fan but is very important part of winning or losing.

hehe sounds like good times.

agree about casual fan overlooking special teams btw .. one of my favorite angles.

the kicker for troy was a tad banged up and they wouldnt attempt anything but a short fg with the kid so they kept going for it on fourth down and succeeded. Then they benefited from their own bad kick when it landed on top of an fau players head after it hung up in the wind. they also benefited when the fau kicker made a fg that the referees misjudged and signaled no good. The one major error actually made by the fau special teams was a bad snap that gave troy the ball on the fau 4.

I am not saying it was good beat or anything ,,, just saying that there were lots and lots of ways for fau to cover in that game despite some incredible misfortune so its safe to say there were lots of ways for them to cover normally as well. but beating a dead horse on that game .. troy got the money and i got to cry myself to sleep .. onward ....

 

[nawlins51]

hehe sounds like good times.

agree about casual fan overlooking special teams btw .. one of my favorite angles.

the kicker for troy was a tad banged up and they wouldnt attempt anything but a short fg with the kid so they kept going for it on fourth down and succeeded. Then they benefited from their own bad kick when it landed on top of an fau players head after it hung up in the wind. they also benefited when the fau kicker made a fg that the referees misjudged and signaled no good. The one major error actually made by the fau special teams was a bad snap that gave troy the ball on the fau 4.

I am not saying it was good beat or anything ,,, just saying that there were lots and lots of ways for fau to cover in that game despite some incredible misfortune so its safe to say there were lots of ways for them to cover normally as well. but beating a dead horse on that game .. troy got the money and i got to cry myself to sleep .. onward ....

Shit happens VK.I have been on a whole bunch of games like that.If a person on this forum hasn't,its coming and it sure won't be your last.I am about to PM you on an idea I have.

 

[RetroVK]

real quick on the northern illinois game .

I have had miami oh power rated higher than niu most of the year ... niu slightly higher now .. but this line is too high.

What has niu done to deserve this ?? beat a terrible indiana st team 48-3 ?? lose close to tennessee ??? get 2 more first downs and 80 more yards of offense than eastern michigan ??? who got outplayed and lost to minnesota ??? who got outplayed and lost to western michigan ???

What has miami oh done to deserve being this big of a dog to niu ?? lost 28-10 to temple at home !!! yeah its bad but it was all aobut turnovers ... temple had 11 fd to miami oh 20 in that one...... lose by 25 to cincinnati ?? yeah but cincy is quality and miami ohio did have more first downs than cincy and the game turned when moh down 24-20 ,made a mistake and cincy returned an interception 72 yards on a second and 6 play from the bearcat 32,...because they lost 16-6 in the big house to michigan ??? another team they had more first downs than allowed ... because they lost 34-13 to vanderbilt while having equal number of first downs ??? that loss certainly doesnt look nearly as bad anymore either.

just think miami oh stays competitive in this game and i do see both offenses having more success than others think .. niu 24-23 or there abouts .. but -11.5 ???

What on earth makes one think that niu offense can put a beatdown on a defense that good ??

Another thing to consider is that when these two teams punt ... miami ohio has the current number one punter in the nation .. so in a battle of field position miami ohio rates to win there as well.

i think miami ohio has a chance for the straight up win and i also think the line is a bit off.

I realize they have had a lot of road games and will benefit from being back in Dekalb but miami ohio has traditionally done decent there, winning 3 of the last 5 played at niu.

 

[nawlins51]

real quick on the northern illinois game .

I have had miami oh power rated higher than niu most of the year ... niu slightly higher now .. but this line is too high.

What has niu done to deserve this ?? beat a terrible indiana st team 48-3 ?? lose close to tennessee ??? get 2 more first downs and 80 more yards of offense than eastern michigan ??? who got outplayed and lost to minnesota ??? who got outplayed and lost to western michigan ???

What has miami oh done to deserve being this big of a dog to niu ?? lost 28-10 to temple at home !!! yeah its bad but it was all aobut turnovers ... temple had 11 fd to miami oh 20 in that one...... lose by 25 to cincinnati ?? yeah but cincy is quality and miami ohio did have more first downs than cincy and the game turned when moh down 24-20 ,made a mistake and cincy returned an interception 72 yards on a second and 6 play from the bearcat 32,...because they lost 16-6 in the big house to michigan ??? another team they had more first downs than allowed ... because they lost 34-13 to vanderbilt while having equal number of first downs ??? that loss certainly doesnt look nearly as bad anymore either.

just think miami oh stays competitive in this game and i do see both offenses having more success than others think .. niu 24-23 or there abouts .. but -11.5 ???

What on earth makes one think that niu offense can put a beatdown on a defense that good ??

Another thing to consider is that when these two teams punt ... miami ohio has the current number one punter in the nation .. so in a battle of field position miami ohio rates to win there as well.

i think miami ohio has a chance for the straight up win and i also think the line is a bit off.

I realize they have had a lot of road games and will benefit from being back in Dekalb but miami ohio has traditionally done decent there, winning 3 of the last 5 played at niu.

Thanks VK.I am turning to the dark side with NIU. Just going to wait and see what the line does. Great point about the punter.Just told you about special teams on how important it is and overlooked it on this one.Stupid me.:cheers: