RetroVK
This claim is disputed
updated through week 6
overall 34-29-2
Sides 20-23-2
moneyline dogs 0-1
totals 14-5
middles/teasers/parlays/traps/etc 2-2 + $420
Ok , finally in a better area as far as the record is concerned. First thing to address is the nice $50 moneyline parlay i played with emich and iowa. Really should have won that bet but iowa just kept blowing chances all game to score and lost by 3. Coaches decision making and Stanzi ability to turn it over deep in opponent territory twice and deep in own territory once made it difficult as well. Disappointing to miss out on a higher eward investment and 2150 bucks. As usual i will recap games from worst capped to best capped from this past week.
Tennessee -15 loser -- I did a bad job of having correct QB information for this game. It is my job to have that and I failed miserably. In addition to that, I completely misinterpreted who would win the battle at the line of scrimmage when Tennessee had the ball. NIU loaded up the line of scrimmage , forcing Tennessee to beat them with Stephens arm. It became apparent early that this was not going to happen. In addition , once the niu DB's figured out that the vols didn't gameplan to throw deep they just sat on the short patterns. Vols did connect on one long td throw which was the only TD of the game. Sickeningly poorly capped game. When an SEC team is at home to a MAC team and the SEC team has underachieved , I expect a physically dominating performance. Not even close. Tennessee had 9 first downs and 225 yards of offense , in a game where i laid over two td. Possibly my worst capped game of the year , but memories are short i suppose
rutgers/wvu over 44.5 --loser -- Really just did not get what i wanted out of mike teel. He chose this game to not get picked off. The game plodded along methodically and there were only 31 total first downs in the game. Down 24-17 rutgers started their last possession at the wvu 44 but went nowhere. There was a scoring barrage late first half or this would not have been even close. wrong side but what a great number i got. And in my defense Pat "the pussy" White got hurt again and didn't play the entire second half .. have to think that cost me a score. With that said , the fact that this guy routiniely sits out with hangnail injuries and/or a dislocated vagina has to be considered whenever makign a bet that revolves around the mountaineers scoring. Also zero turnovers in the game. Not badly capped I don't think... but the wrong side for sure in my opinion.
temple/miamioh over 39 loser ---- lost this one as it fell 38 and i did have a missed fg so going over was definitely possible. A large portion of this bet was that i thought temple could put a few points on the board ( thought line was overadjusted for week prior performance against wmich ) and miamioh as a 7 point favorite meant that they should score as well. temple put up 28 but miamioh could only muster 10 at home. just 31 first downs though they did put up just short of 600 yards combined on offense. Never really felt like i was going to win this bet the entire game but almost got it anyway. I never saw a 38 on the game but didnt see a line the last two hours prior to kickoff... so i dont feel badly about the one point loss as i might otherwise. eh it was a coin flip which means it was a bad bet but as the third worst bet out of 12 , it also makes me feel decent about how i am capping right now.
Ohio/wmich over 50.5 -- Winner -- Still not sure how i won this. They scored 33 in the fourth quarter and this is one of the few games that i bet that i got no tv coverage for. There were 40 first downs and 859 yards of offense so statistically it should have gone over but it was 7-11 at halftime and 7-21 after third quarter. So following it on the ticker , i pretty much had written it off. So the game ended 10.5 points over the number but that must have been one strange fourth quarter. Would be interested in comments from anyone who watched the game.
penn state -12.5 -- Winner --Not really happy with this game despite winning the bet. There is a reason most winning cappers hate dd road favorites in conference ( see maryland ). Purdue missed some fg but penn state missed two td because of players slipping ( once on a screen pass and once on a cutback run , both inside the ten yardline ). With that said , i asked myself prior to the game if i saw the lions leading by 20 in the fourth quarter and i answered myself with a "yes" . They were up 20-0 before giving up the mid to late fourth quarter td to purdue ( missed extra point screwed a lot of purdue backers i am sure but had no bearing on my bet at -12.5 anyway ). statistically penn st should have won by more. 24-16 first down edge , 422-241 yardage edge.
cincy/marshall under 52.5 -- winner -- game went mostly as expected. I seriously considered playing abck at this game when it hit 47 as 47,48 , and 51 all seemed like reasonable numbers for the game to land on. As it turns out it looked as if it would land 50 ( score ws 33-10 )as cincy was driving very very late before an exhausted rb fumbled inside the 10. cincy dominated with their offensive line in this game and the marshall qb just is not a very capable passer. 669 total yards and 38 first downs. The number i got early in the week made this less of a sweat for me ... the folks who went under 47 , 48 , 49 later in the week had to be sweating bullets. Never a point in this game where i felt as if i was a dog to winning the bet.
tulsa -13.5 winner -- This would probably rate higher on my list of well capped games but i put a lot of trust into my conversations with pags concerning this game , so its hard to take a ton of credit here. I think he went 7-0 yesterday but i digress. Tulsa won 63-28 despite just a 124 yard advantage and 1 first down advantage. they benefitted from a nice turnover edge ( unique for me ) and also had one of the most amazing punt returns for td i have ever seen. It was the strangest .. not even sure how to describe it if you havent seen it but maybe it is on youtube now.
Wyoming/unm under 44 winner -- Wyoming was intercepted on the first play of the game and unm returned it for a td. I already began thinking i was in trouble. This was a qoute form last weeks thread ( smodod ) where i felt this was a concern. If wyoming doesn't give up a score to the unm defense ( they will try as they have not won a game ATS in their last 14 games ) i think this will be very low scoring. But after that the game settled down and 30 combined first downs and just 10 points scored over the last 3 quarters. Just 17 offensive points scored in the game. feel good about that bet.
iowa +10 -- winner -- when the game was sitting 16-6 i felt pretty good about having the best number EVER available on this game ( smodod #2 ). Iowa had more fist downs and more yards than michigan state and had turnovers kill them. they fumbled on 2nd and 1 from the michigan st 13 yardline on a qb sneak , were intercepted at the mich st 4 yardline on third and goal from the 5 , and fumbled and had it recovered by the spartans on the iowa 12 yardline as well. They also chose to go for it twice on fourth and short deep in mich st territory late in the game and failed both times. All this kind of stings as i had a tiny tiny ml parlay bet on iowa coupled with a 3 td dog where the 3td dog won outright. hurts.
illinois +3 -- winner -- Game went as advertised other than illinois started slow. In the first quarter i thought i was on the wrong side of this game but then everything we discussed last week came to fruition. illinois outgained them 501 - 319 ... and we were the dog. nuff said.
emcih +22 winner over 54.5 loser -- probably my best capped game of the year ( smodod #3 ). emich outfirstdowned bgsu 22-18 and outgained them 410-391. The 801 yards of offense usually means an easy cover at 54.5. I predicted that emich had a legit shot at winning this outright and they came through for me.
regrets -- Arizona. Arizona. Arizona. That is my only real regret this week. Had every reason to ebt this team and let the number scare me. With that said , i have principles to my betting style and one of those concerns laying over 3td. Hard to be too mad at myself about that but .... this game should have been an exception. The only other game resembling a regret for me was vanderbilt. Just so many sharps on that game that i should have had a little something on it. With that said , auburn could have been up 21-0 early in that game had it not been for a goalline stand and a missed expoint. So i cant feel too bad. Also , for the times when i am mad at being "over disciplined" with regards to Arizona , okie st , VT and flordia ( went 3-1 and should have been 1-3 ATS ) i also have to consider when the discipline helped me. i wanted 3 or 3.5 to bet wiscy and the +3 was off the board before i could blink and never returned ( landed 3 ). i didnt bet it at the worse number...yay. i wanted a 10 to bet asu and it never materialized so i laid off ( it landed 10 ) , and i lost a considerable amount of value in inidana and laid off and it fell 9 points. So while its easy to kick myself , i am sticking with my theme of this post and patting myself on the back instead. 12 made bets and only one of them was really bad ( though one of my worst capped games of the year no doubt ).
onto this week
locked in
lsu +4
tcu -14
louisville -6.5
arizona -6
ucf/miamiflorida under 52
utahst/sjsu over 47
michst/nw over 45.5
miamioh/niu over 41.5
kansasst/tamu under 63.5
FAU +4.5
strong leans
FAU +4 ( right team favored ?? )
iowa -6 ( will these guys ever catch a break ? )
michigan st -3 eliminated , northwestern added to tmo
usc -24 ( they are going to roll , will i actually lay it though ?? )
washington state +29 ( i love all the good teams )
miami ohio +11
bowling green -2 ( ponderous line but behind as far as capping this out to be sure yet )
tulsa -25 -- punter is not making the trip to Texas.
hawaii -7 ( improving every week , impossible travel for bad road team )
talk me off leans
northwestern +3
oregon -17
notre dame +7
michigan -16.5
cincy -9 ( priced out ?? already have cincy future over 6.5 wins )
southern miss +13 ( yeah i still think boise is overrated )
overall 34-29-2
Sides 20-23-2
moneyline dogs 0-1
totals 14-5
middles/teasers/parlays/traps/etc 2-2 + $420
Ok , finally in a better area as far as the record is concerned. First thing to address is the nice $50 moneyline parlay i played with emich and iowa. Really should have won that bet but iowa just kept blowing chances all game to score and lost by 3. Coaches decision making and Stanzi ability to turn it over deep in opponent territory twice and deep in own territory once made it difficult as well. Disappointing to miss out on a higher eward investment and 2150 bucks. As usual i will recap games from worst capped to best capped from this past week.
Tennessee -15 loser -- I did a bad job of having correct QB information for this game. It is my job to have that and I failed miserably. In addition to that, I completely misinterpreted who would win the battle at the line of scrimmage when Tennessee had the ball. NIU loaded up the line of scrimmage , forcing Tennessee to beat them with Stephens arm. It became apparent early that this was not going to happen. In addition , once the niu DB's figured out that the vols didn't gameplan to throw deep they just sat on the short patterns. Vols did connect on one long td throw which was the only TD of the game. Sickeningly poorly capped game. When an SEC team is at home to a MAC team and the SEC team has underachieved , I expect a physically dominating performance. Not even close. Tennessee had 9 first downs and 225 yards of offense , in a game where i laid over two td. Possibly my worst capped game of the year , but memories are short i suppose
rutgers/wvu over 44.5 --loser -- Really just did not get what i wanted out of mike teel. He chose this game to not get picked off. The game plodded along methodically and there were only 31 total first downs in the game. Down 24-17 rutgers started their last possession at the wvu 44 but went nowhere. There was a scoring barrage late first half or this would not have been even close. wrong side but what a great number i got. And in my defense Pat "the pussy" White got hurt again and didn't play the entire second half .. have to think that cost me a score. With that said , the fact that this guy routiniely sits out with hangnail injuries and/or a dislocated vagina has to be considered whenever makign a bet that revolves around the mountaineers scoring. Also zero turnovers in the game. Not badly capped I don't think... but the wrong side for sure in my opinion.
temple/miamioh over 39 loser ---- lost this one as it fell 38 and i did have a missed fg so going over was definitely possible. A large portion of this bet was that i thought temple could put a few points on the board ( thought line was overadjusted for week prior performance against wmich ) and miamioh as a 7 point favorite meant that they should score as well. temple put up 28 but miamioh could only muster 10 at home. just 31 first downs though they did put up just short of 600 yards combined on offense. Never really felt like i was going to win this bet the entire game but almost got it anyway. I never saw a 38 on the game but didnt see a line the last two hours prior to kickoff... so i dont feel badly about the one point loss as i might otherwise. eh it was a coin flip which means it was a bad bet but as the third worst bet out of 12 , it also makes me feel decent about how i am capping right now.
Ohio/wmich over 50.5 -- Winner -- Still not sure how i won this. They scored 33 in the fourth quarter and this is one of the few games that i bet that i got no tv coverage for. There were 40 first downs and 859 yards of offense so statistically it should have gone over but it was 7-11 at halftime and 7-21 after third quarter. So following it on the ticker , i pretty much had written it off. So the game ended 10.5 points over the number but that must have been one strange fourth quarter. Would be interested in comments from anyone who watched the game.
penn state -12.5 -- Winner --Not really happy with this game despite winning the bet. There is a reason most winning cappers hate dd road favorites in conference ( see maryland ). Purdue missed some fg but penn state missed two td because of players slipping ( once on a screen pass and once on a cutback run , both inside the ten yardline ). With that said , i asked myself prior to the game if i saw the lions leading by 20 in the fourth quarter and i answered myself with a "yes" . They were up 20-0 before giving up the mid to late fourth quarter td to purdue ( missed extra point screwed a lot of purdue backers i am sure but had no bearing on my bet at -12.5 anyway ). statistically penn st should have won by more. 24-16 first down edge , 422-241 yardage edge.
cincy/marshall under 52.5 -- winner -- game went mostly as expected. I seriously considered playing abck at this game when it hit 47 as 47,48 , and 51 all seemed like reasonable numbers for the game to land on. As it turns out it looked as if it would land 50 ( score ws 33-10 )as cincy was driving very very late before an exhausted rb fumbled inside the 10. cincy dominated with their offensive line in this game and the marshall qb just is not a very capable passer. 669 total yards and 38 first downs. The number i got early in the week made this less of a sweat for me ... the folks who went under 47 , 48 , 49 later in the week had to be sweating bullets. Never a point in this game where i felt as if i was a dog to winning the bet.
tulsa -13.5 winner -- This would probably rate higher on my list of well capped games but i put a lot of trust into my conversations with pags concerning this game , so its hard to take a ton of credit here. I think he went 7-0 yesterday but i digress. Tulsa won 63-28 despite just a 124 yard advantage and 1 first down advantage. they benefitted from a nice turnover edge ( unique for me ) and also had one of the most amazing punt returns for td i have ever seen. It was the strangest .. not even sure how to describe it if you havent seen it but maybe it is on youtube now.
Wyoming/unm under 44 winner -- Wyoming was intercepted on the first play of the game and unm returned it for a td. I already began thinking i was in trouble. This was a qoute form last weeks thread ( smodod ) where i felt this was a concern. If wyoming doesn't give up a score to the unm defense ( they will try as they have not won a game ATS in their last 14 games ) i think this will be very low scoring. But after that the game settled down and 30 combined first downs and just 10 points scored over the last 3 quarters. Just 17 offensive points scored in the game. feel good about that bet.
iowa +10 -- winner -- when the game was sitting 16-6 i felt pretty good about having the best number EVER available on this game ( smodod #2 ). Iowa had more fist downs and more yards than michigan state and had turnovers kill them. they fumbled on 2nd and 1 from the michigan st 13 yardline on a qb sneak , were intercepted at the mich st 4 yardline on third and goal from the 5 , and fumbled and had it recovered by the spartans on the iowa 12 yardline as well. They also chose to go for it twice on fourth and short deep in mich st territory late in the game and failed both times. All this kind of stings as i had a tiny tiny ml parlay bet on iowa coupled with a 3 td dog where the 3td dog won outright. hurts.
illinois +3 -- winner -- Game went as advertised other than illinois started slow. In the first quarter i thought i was on the wrong side of this game but then everything we discussed last week came to fruition. illinois outgained them 501 - 319 ... and we were the dog. nuff said.
emcih +22 winner over 54.5 loser -- probably my best capped game of the year ( smodod #3 ). emich outfirstdowned bgsu 22-18 and outgained them 410-391. The 801 yards of offense usually means an easy cover at 54.5. I predicted that emich had a legit shot at winning this outright and they came through for me.
regrets -- Arizona. Arizona. Arizona. That is my only real regret this week. Had every reason to ebt this team and let the number scare me. With that said , i have principles to my betting style and one of those concerns laying over 3td. Hard to be too mad at myself about that but .... this game should have been an exception. The only other game resembling a regret for me was vanderbilt. Just so many sharps on that game that i should have had a little something on it. With that said , auburn could have been up 21-0 early in that game had it not been for a goalline stand and a missed expoint. So i cant feel too bad. Also , for the times when i am mad at being "over disciplined" with regards to Arizona , okie st , VT and flordia ( went 3-1 and should have been 1-3 ATS ) i also have to consider when the discipline helped me. i wanted 3 or 3.5 to bet wiscy and the +3 was off the board before i could blink and never returned ( landed 3 ). i didnt bet it at the worse number...yay. i wanted a 10 to bet asu and it never materialized so i laid off ( it landed 10 ) , and i lost a considerable amount of value in inidana and laid off and it fell 9 points. So while its easy to kick myself , i am sticking with my theme of this post and patting myself on the back instead. 12 made bets and only one of them was really bad ( though one of my worst capped games of the year no doubt ).
onto this week
locked in
lsu +4
tcu -14
louisville -6.5
arizona -6
ucf/miamiflorida under 52
utahst/sjsu over 47
michst/nw over 45.5
miamioh/niu over 41.5
kansasst/tamu under 63.5
FAU +4.5
strong leans
FAU +4 ( right team favored ?? )
iowa -6 ( will these guys ever catch a break ? )
michigan st -3 eliminated , northwestern added to tmo
usc -24 ( they are going to roll , will i actually lay it though ?? )
washington state +29 ( i love all the good teams )
miami ohio +11
bowling green -2 ( ponderous line but behind as far as capping this out to be sure yet )
tulsa -25 -- punter is not making the trip to Texas.
hawaii -7 ( improving every week , impossible travel for bad road team )
talk me off leans
northwestern +3
oregon -17
notre dame +7
michigan -16.5
cincy -9 ( priced out ?? already have cincy future over 6.5 wins )
southern miss +13 ( yeah i still think boise is overrated )
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) . Given auburn recent perormance , you do have to take lsu win with a grain of salt ... but no one can point to a game where florida played well imo.....miamifl was a one score game until late , hawaii was punt return for td and two int return for td , arkansas was two late scores as a bad arkansas team was competitive , ole miss was the loss , and tennessee they had 243 yards of offense but had all the help from the vols. i think lsu is the better football team.
