RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Want to put forth more input into this discussion but want to get my thoughts more aligned first. sorry for upcoming delay in responding and hope we can discuss this game in detail later in the week.
2008 cfb --time to post my week 4 card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
Want to put forth more input into this discussion but want to get my thoughts more aligned first. sorry for upcoming delay in responding and hope we can discuss this game in detail later in the week.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Yup. I hate that this is at -3. I have another problem with the game that is eating at me ..... let me be straight forward , i like the lsu side .... but using the switch the homefield analysis the line doesn't make sense to me. I give lsu a 5.5 point homefield and auburn a 4.5 ( both numbers rounded down ) which accounts for 10 points of swing from one home field to the other. Say you want to be conservative and say it accounts for just 8 points difference ... that makes lsu a 13 and/or 11 point home favorite to auburn if this were played in louisiana ... that makes no sense. So that is tearing me up as far as line value is concerned. By power rating it is also not qualifying as a play .... but just from watching these two teams ( auburn esopecially ) i really think lsu can get enough first downs to put a few scores up on the board and cover this thing. This would be a "feel" play or "gut instinct" play instead of my normal way of finding games.... and yet i feel like i want to bet it.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
yes , have to think the under is going to hit but they are going to line this game in mid to low thirties i imagine.
the creeping up hurts alright ...:hang:
LooseOnTheLead
Pretty much a regular
LSU's defense will dominate this matchup creating direct points or setting up their Offense. LSU will have much more success moving the ball and Auburns D has to wear down . I just cant see Auburn moving the ball at all on the ground, and their QB throws a horrible ball w/ poor accuracy, HOme field cant save them here.i have no problems laying a small number here.
RambleOn
The Law of Winning
I will still bet it. I don't see Auburn scoring more than 10 pts here. Can LSU get 21 on Auburn's defense? I'm not sure, but I don't think so.
Mort The Flying Cow
Pretty much a regular
Baylor/UConn thoughts.
I'll be the first to admit I didn't see the Baylor game last week, but I watched them play Wake Forest. I think Robert Griffin is an outstanding talent and will lead the Bears to two Big 12 victories (Iowa St, A&M).
That being said, this is their first road test and UConn, while not Wake Forest, isn't a pushover. They play solid, fundamental football.
Washington State is bad. Like, possibly the worst BCS conference team bad. Baylor may have blown them out, but it's more of a testament to how much better Griffin was than anything WSU put on the field.
I think the 14 is almost right on the mark. Donald Brown will eat up clock, keeping Griffin off the field. In his first road game, will Griffin make a few mistakes? I won't be shocked if Baylor wins. I also won't be shocked if the final is 38-10.
I'll be the first to admit I didn't see the Baylor game last week, but I watched them play Wake Forest. I think Robert Griffin is an outstanding talent and will lead the Bears to two Big 12 victories (Iowa St, A&M).
That being said, this is their first road test and UConn, while not Wake Forest, isn't a pushover. They play solid, fundamental football.
Washington State is bad. Like, possibly the worst BCS conference team bad. Baylor may have blown them out, but it's more of a testament to how much better Griffin was than anything WSU put on the field.
I think the 14 is almost right on the mark. Donald Brown will eat up clock, keeping Griffin off the field. In his first road game, will Griffin make a few mistakes? I won't be shocked if Baylor wins. I also won't be shocked if the final is 38-10.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
ok i eliminated army today and i eliminated central michigan today as possible plays.
The cmich elimination is especially tough as i sort of liked them as a possible upset pick inthe offseason but two things bother me now. 1. purdue had oregon against the ropes last week and let them come back and win. so i would think they are less likely to let up in this game than they might otherwise and coaches can also point to last years bowl game vs cmich and talk about the same thing as far as putting teams away. 2. While the MAC has been improved , even more than i expected , cmich has sort of disappointed me to start the year. The defense just has not risen to the occasion and the offense has started slow in all three games this year.
Army may be in some disarray and Akron has been inconsistent to start the year. I am a nonbeliever in akron but i think i can find better spots to bet against them this year. I think i will do some heart attack prevention and not have my money on army. see the "akron at army" thread as some folks have some great opinions on that game in there.
The cmich elimination is especially tough as i sort of liked them as a possible upset pick inthe offseason but two things bother me now. 1. purdue had oregon against the ropes last week and let them come back and win. so i would think they are less likely to let up in this game than they might otherwise and coaches can also point to last years bowl game vs cmich and talk about the same thing as far as putting teams away. 2. While the MAC has been improved , even more than i expected , cmich has sort of disappointed me to start the year. The defense just has not risen to the occasion and the offense has started slow in all three games this year.
Army may be in some disarray and Akron has been inconsistent to start the year. I am a nonbeliever in akron but i think i can find better spots to bet against them this year. I think i will do some heart attack prevention and not have my money on army. see the "akron at army" thread as some folks have some great opinions on that game in there.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
that s how i see it playing out as well .... just more confident in lsu chances to both make a big play and to successfully couple first downs together.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
i wont go under a low thirties total in a college game. i agree with you though.... more of a principle fundamental thing for me to avoid those situations.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I agree. One concern i have is that i have almost created a side business of under estimating kansas and uconn. uconn at some point rates to have a bad bounce or two at some point but i am not a fan of relying on that.
What you bring up concerning washington st is the truth. They are atrocious , especially regarding giving up big plays.
I saw the wake forest game and thought the kids were competing. I also listened to a good portion of the game vs washington st on sirius radio. I lov ethe coach out theree and would think that this team improves each week while getting a better grasp of the new systems.
I like backdoor chances with balor offense with griffin at the helm too ...
unfortunately there is a big difference between +14.5/14 and the 12.5/13 it sits at now. Throw in added advantage to weekday home night game and i probably stay away ...and cheer for baylor to call a fair catch and return it for a td !! or for uconn to catch a game winning td in the back of the endzone only to have it ruled incomplete.....
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
nice prediction. burns has started to voice his concerns over lack of playing time.
This concerns me with a 745 eastern time start ...
UNDER THE LIGHTS AT JORDAN-HARE
Auburn has been tough to beat in night games at Jordan-Hare Stadium, including a season-opening victory over Louisiana-Monroe this year. The Tigers have accumulated a record of 15-2 since the 2000 season in home games starting at 6 p.m. or later. That stretch includes a 4-0 record against ranked opponents, with wins over No. 1 Florida in 2001, No. 2 Florida in 2006, No. 7 Tennessee in 2003 and No. 14 Georgia in 2000. The Tigers currently own a three-game winning streak in home night games.
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
lmao:36_11_6:
Exactly. I am shocked that this is not Auburn -3. Over reaction to the Miss St game.
Shady calls by refs caused homefield to save Auburn the last two times.
Auburn and LSU have this game circled each year. Auburn will have a few tricks up their sleeve to try to score on LSU. Beckwith is out for LSU, and this hurts because he will be playing LB on Sundays next year. But, I expect Cutrera to fill in and cause havoc. Cutrera has experience and is an able body, so LSU will not dropoff that badly if at all.
I said in July 13-6 to a friend, so I will stick with that. I expect the under to get pounded, so I will be waiting for this total to be released.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Eliminated baylor and ball state.
Baylor is a combiation of souring on the game a little bit after reading some other respected peoples opinions ( BAR on other side , morttheflyingcow etc etc ) and the line move ..... if i could get this at the 14 like broadwayjoe , i might look at it again. for now its eliminated and that usually means it never makes the card.
Ballst was on my talk me offs but was really a game i was only considering if i could get a td , even buy buying a half point,..... but the thing is stuck on the 3.5 and doesn't appear to have upward momentum and would be shocked if it got to my desired number to play.
Baylor is a combiation of souring on the game a little bit after reading some other respected peoples opinions ( BAR on other side , morttheflyingcow etc etc ) and the line move ..... if i could get this at the 14 like broadwayjoe , i might look at it again. for now its eliminated and that usually means it never makes the card.
Ballst was on my talk me offs but was really a game i was only considering if i could get a td , even buy buying a half point,..... but the thing is stuck on the 3.5 and doesn't appear to have upward momentum and would be shocked if it got to my desired number to play.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
If they had not lost to mtsu i would consider this a decent spot for an emich play .... but after that game how can they be looking ahead now ?
GeauxTigers
Active Member
RambleOn
The Law of Winning
I'm not sure this makes sense to me, maybe I'm reading it wrong. I mean that Maryland is looking ahead to their conference game with Clemson, and won't be that worried about Eastern Michigan who they know they will beat. They also just came off a HUGE underdog victory and this is a letdown spot. Classic sandwich/lookahead. :shake:
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
This is what i mean .....
Friedgen Goes Easy On Terps
COLLEGE PARK, Md. (AP) ―
Instead of chewing out his players for their lackluster performance against Middle Tennessee State, Maryland football coach Ralph Friedgen took a portion of the blame and showed them love.
Instead of making personnel changes, Friedgen decided to stick with his starters -- including quarterback Chris Turner, who threw three interceptions in the disappointing 24-14 loss.
"I thought it was very important for us to be positive with the players," Friedgen said Tuesday. "Our players are feeling this loss just as much as our coaches are. I told them after the game I didn't do a very good job of getting them prepared. ... I knew if we weren't at our best, we would have a good opportunity to get beat. And we weren't at our best."
After watching the Terrapins fumble twice, get intercepted three times and allow 284 passing yards, Friedgen considered shuffling the lineup for this Saturday's home game against No. 23 California. Ultimately, the coach decided he had the right players on the field, but that they just didn't perform up to their potential.
"I've actually had a few kids in (to talk), and felt like now maybe isn't the right time to do it," Friedgen said. "I told them they've got to start playing better, or we will make some changes. In the past when I've done that, they've responded."
The message was that it's too late to do anything about that loss, yet there's plenty of time to get things right. Sure, it would be nice to be 2-0, but the objective now is get better and beat the undefeated Bears.
"We just need to get sharper, just on the little things like footwork and fundamentals," center Edwin Williams said. "The good thing is, it's things we can fix. It's not lack of effort. We've got to stay consistent. As long as we do that, I don't see why we can't be positive and do well this week."
Some football coaches would react to an unexpected loss against a lesser foe by yelling or punishing the players. Friedgen's softhearted approach was appreciated by his players, who were well aware of how poorly they played.
"We were trying hard but making way too many dumb mistakes," defensive end Jeremy Navarre said.
Friedgen blamed the defensive woes in part of bad communication. When a play was sent in from the sideline, some of the players got it -- and others didn't.
"I think people were not looking at the sideline when they needed to," defensive back Jeff Allen said. "I think we needed to communicate more by signaling each other. We figured that out this week, and we've started doing that in practice. The first thing we did Monday was work on communication."
The loss to Middle Tennessee State hurt, but all the Terrapins' preseason goals remain within reach -- especially if they can rebound against a Top 25 team this weekend.
"It's one game. We've still got a lot of games to go, we still have the Atlantic Coast Conference coming up," Allen said. "We've just got to move on and take that as a lesson on how to prepare every week."
No one admitted to taking Middle Tennessee State lightly, but the preparation this week has definitely been turned up a couple notches.
"Guys are working hard, putting in extra hours watching film and doing what they're supposed to do, and really putting their mind into the game," tight end Dan Gronkowski said. "If we become more consistent, we'll be a real good team."
That applies to Turner, who stepped in for an injured Jordan Steffy. Turner threw two interceptions in the fourth quarter, but the flaws in the offense were not necessarily those of the quarterback.
"A lot of it wasn't his fault. There were receivers falling, receivers running the wrong route, or pressure in his face," Gronkowski said. 'He's coming along. He'll be fine."
So that is why i am concerned that they would actually be taking this game more seriously than in normal years .. had they found a way to beat mtsu ... then this would be more of a classic sandwich to me than it is here. Not saying emich isn't the play .. ... but you asked me to talk you off so i am putting forth some devils advocate material....
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Well, i eliminated some games this morning ......
Iowa +1 -- Really worried that i might be over reacting to pittsburgh slow start. I like how iowa matches up defensively but also see pitt presenting some trouble for iowa in what amounts to their first road game. Not quite enough value for me .. at 3 or higher i would have taken a shot.
kansas st -4 -- As i mentioned in the preseason often ...kansas state is a team that i do not have a great feel for. Thorw in the fact that i think louisivlle is going to be one of those schizo teams that you never know what you are going to get week in and week out and i feel it is best to just stay away. This is a hard one to let go because i kind of like it and see a lot of others who know what they are doing taking the kst side as well. i had a bad time of it with midweek games last year and already am 0-1 this year with them. i dont have the confidence in what either of these teams actually are to put a bunch of my money down on the counter ( or click on a keyboard lol ). will just sit back and cheer for kst since that's what a majority of my friends are on and try to use the time to evaluate each team so that i can have confidence in betting games involving them later in the year.
wake +4 -- might see me use them in a teaser. How good is FSU ? really really really wanted a 6 here.
i also moved arkansas into my strong leans category. As the game approaches i like the arkansas side more and more ... unfortunately the only 10 i see in town is stratosphere/charlies and the only 10 i see online is mathcbook. So time is running out for me to make a play in this game as i won't play without the full ten points. charlies had the reduced juice thursdays last year so if they are doing that again i will try and be ready to play or not play this game by thursday afternoon ... and if it is a play run down there for it. Again it wont make my card at anything less than 10 , i promise you that.
That leaves lsu as the only other game to consider for me this week. my problem with this game is that it just doesn't meet my normal criteria for a play based on the entirety of my fundamentals in capping. BUT my lying eyes tell me that they win this game a good percentage of the time ... a profitable percentage of the time. This is a game i dont feel good about teasing either since it crosses the zero. Not sure what the hell to do which usually means that i dont play it ...
Iowa +1 -- Really worried that i might be over reacting to pittsburgh slow start. I like how iowa matches up defensively but also see pitt presenting some trouble for iowa in what amounts to their first road game. Not quite enough value for me .. at 3 or higher i would have taken a shot.
kansas st -4 -- As i mentioned in the preseason often ...kansas state is a team that i do not have a great feel for. Thorw in the fact that i think louisivlle is going to be one of those schizo teams that you never know what you are going to get week in and week out and i feel it is best to just stay away. This is a hard one to let go because i kind of like it and see a lot of others who know what they are doing taking the kst side as well. i had a bad time of it with midweek games last year and already am 0-1 this year with them. i dont have the confidence in what either of these teams actually are to put a bunch of my money down on the counter ( or click on a keyboard lol ). will just sit back and cheer for kst since that's what a majority of my friends are on and try to use the time to evaluate each team so that i can have confidence in betting games involving them later in the year.
wake +4 -- might see me use them in a teaser. How good is FSU ? really really really wanted a 6 here.
i also moved arkansas into my strong leans category. As the game approaches i like the arkansas side more and more ... unfortunately the only 10 i see in town is stratosphere/charlies and the only 10 i see online is mathcbook. So time is running out for me to make a play in this game as i won't play without the full ten points. charlies had the reduced juice thursdays last year so if they are doing that again i will try and be ready to play or not play this game by thursday afternoon ... and if it is a play run down there for it. Again it wont make my card at anything less than 10 , i promise you that.
That leaves lsu as the only other game to consider for me this week. my problem with this game is that it just doesn't meet my normal criteria for a play based on the entirety of my fundamentals in capping. BUT my lying eyes tell me that they win this game a good percentage of the time ... a profitable percentage of the time. This is a game i dont feel good about teasing either since it crosses the zero. Not sure what the hell to do which usually means that i dont play it ...
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
locked in
rutgers -3
miami florida -2
sjsu +10
utah -7
tennessee +8
mississippi st +8
arizona/ucla under 56
Strong leans
lsu -3
arkansas +10
Great # on RU, agree with The U but I am looking at the Under right now. My asshole still hurts from the Under last yr. I am going to be on SJST, like this play a lot. I am on Utah. Tennessee, I don't know what to expect here, always tough at Neyland though and UF isn't impressing me that much. Lean to Miss St, agree with the under.
I like LSU but like the under a lot more and I can see Bama going on cruise control in this game in anticipation of their big matchup next wk. Solid stuff here VK
rutgers -3
miami florida -2
sjsu +10
utah -7
tennessee +8
mississippi st +8
arizona/ucla under 56
Strong leans
lsu -3
arkansas +10
Great # on RU, agree with The U but I am looking at the Under right now. My asshole still hurts from the Under last yr. I am going to be on SJST, like this play a lot. I am on Utah. Tennessee, I don't know what to expect here, always tough at Neyland though and UF isn't impressing me that much. Lean to Miss St, agree with the under.
I like LSU but like the under a lot more and I can see Bama going on cruise control in this game in anticipation of their big matchup next wk. Solid stuff here VK
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Well , dodged a bullet with kansas state ... same thing worried me with kansas st as did with lsu ..... if kstate is a 6 point favorite at louisville they would be 2 td favorites at home ... and that cant be right. Really thought kansas state would show up but English seemed to have his kids believing on defense until they tired. I think both of these teams are going to be good bets against bad competition and might not fair well against really good competition.
As an aside , the temple at buffalo game was on replay at the book as well on one of the channels and i got to watch a good portion of that game. wow. How did i lose money twice betting against buffalo ? Both of those teams looked slow , unathletic and below average to me.
part of me is always cheering for my strong leans to win because it means i am on track but another part of me is glad when i lay off a game i like because it doesnt quite cut the mustard and it saves me money.
As an aside , the temple at buffalo game was on replay at the book as well on one of the channels and i got to watch a good portion of that game. wow. How did i lose money twice betting against buffalo ? Both of those teams looked slow , unathletic and below average to me.
part of me is always cheering for my strong leans to win because it means i am on track but another part of me is glad when i lay off a game i like because it doesnt quite cut the mustard and it saves me money.
O
O-State
Guest
locked in
rutgers -3
miami florida -2
sjsu +10
utah -7
tennessee +8
mississippi st +8
arizona/ucla under 56
Strong leans
lsu -3
arkansas +10
-----That my friend is a very strong looking card. I really think your gonna turn it around in a big way this week.
No opinion on that Under play, if you haven't mentioned it already what are you seeing there instead of a LSU/Aub U or some of these others out there.
I read your Miss St. thoughts and now actually lean Miss St. The greatest point in there is that GT is not going to run away from anybody. There is no passing threat and I put into context the number of carries Auburn had. What I keep going back too is that Miss St. is very similar to the teams VT and BC are fielding this year.
Other thing I read is GT is replacing all 3 linebackers and that caused them some trouble shutting down the VT run and Tyrod Taylor on scrambles.
---Some interesting Aggie thoughts on the Miami game has me leaning the other way as well.
rutgers -3
miami florida -2
sjsu +10
utah -7
tennessee +8
mississippi st +8
arizona/ucla under 56
Strong leans
lsu -3
arkansas +10
-----That my friend is a very strong looking card. I really think your gonna turn it around in a big way this week.
No opinion on that Under play, if you haven't mentioned it already what are you seeing there instead of a LSU/Aub U or some of these others out there.
I read your Miss St. thoughts and now actually lean Miss St. The greatest point in there is that GT is not going to run away from anybody. There is no passing threat and I put into context the number of carries Auburn had. What I keep going back too is that Miss St. is very similar to the teams VT and BC are fielding this year.
Other thing I read is GT is replacing all 3 linebackers and that caused them some trouble shutting down the VT run and Tyrod Taylor on scrambles.
---Some interesting Aggie thoughts on the Miami game has me leaning the other way as well.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Well besides the obvious that the number is 20 points higher in the zona/ucla game compared to some of the other unders where it is priced in already to some degree. What i see is neuheisel doing the same thing he did in week 1 vs tennessee ... protect the defense with conservative offense the first half of the game and then opening it up later in the game to try and win it. The bruins must be chomping at the bit to get back out there defensively and they match up well vs the zona offense. i think stoops realized he didnt run grigsby enough last week and will rely more on that part of the game this week. I think both teams were flat defensively last week in anticipation of this weeks game. i think ucla has more success running in this game than what they have shown this year but not enough to be dominant by any stretch ... looks like what i really like to see for an under bet ... both teams able to get a few first downs but not likely to sustain drives the lenght of the field.... and no big playmakers that i see going wild on the other team.
so i see two conservative gameplans , ucla running the ball a lot early and mixing in the short passing game and arizona starting out more conservatively as the turnovers killed them last week and knocked them out of the game early in first road game of year. So i see a dose of grigsby and the stupid little wide receiver screen game they like to employ. without short drives its hard to get 2 td drives per quarter in my estimation and when these teams succeed it will be drives with a lot of plays in them .. tick tock tick tock. i dont see either team hitting 30 points with my biggest fear being overtime since we are looking at a game lined at a fg or less.
i dont have a strong argument against the under in auburn/lsu .... i just dont like to go under games lined in the thirties in college football....
so i see two conservative gameplans , ucla running the ball a lot early and mixing in the short passing game and arizona starting out more conservatively as the turnovers killed them last week and knocked them out of the game early in first road game of year. So i see a dose of grigsby and the stupid little wide receiver screen game they like to employ. without short drives its hard to get 2 td drives per quarter in my estimation and when these teams succeed it will be drives with a lot of plays in them .. tick tock tick tock. i dont see either team hitting 30 points with my biggest fear being overtime since we are looking at a game lined at a fg or less.
i dont have a strong argument against the under in auburn/lsu .... i just dont like to go under games lined in the thirties in college football....
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
BOL this week, VK.
that under could be tight...but i think it squeaks by. and i'm growing fonder of that messy st play by the day, bro.
that under could be tight...but i think it squeaks by. and i'm growing fonder of that messy st play by the day, bro.
Edmond_Dantes
Member
VK,
I read over your GT/MSU analysis, and I'm beginning to lean to Missy St, but does the spot concern you at all? MSU is just off of a miserable offensive performance against Auburn, and they have LSU on deck next week. They are playing an OOC away game against a team that has momentum and motivation on their side, along with a bye game next week, so I would have to think that GT plays balls to the wall on offense and defense. I understand that this will be a low scoring affair, but Auburn was able to rush for almost 3.6 ypc against MSU. I would have to think that GT could put some drives together if they are allowed that many yards on every carry, especially since they have seen similar defenses on the road the last two weeks and know how to prepare an attack against it. In order to cover, I would have to think that MSU would need 10 points in this game, but I'm having a difficult time seeing how they get those points. What am I missing here? BOL this week.
I read over your GT/MSU analysis, and I'm beginning to lean to Missy St, but does the spot concern you at all? MSU is just off of a miserable offensive performance against Auburn, and they have LSU on deck next week. They are playing an OOC away game against a team that has momentum and motivation on their side, along with a bye game next week, so I would have to think that GT plays balls to the wall on offense and defense. I understand that this will be a low scoring affair, but Auburn was able to rush for almost 3.6 ypc against MSU. I would have to think that GT could put some drives together if they are allowed that many yards on every carry, especially since they have seen similar defenses on the road the last two weeks and know how to prepare an attack against it. In order to cover, I would have to think that MSU would need 10 points in this game, but I'm having a difficult time seeing how they get those points. What am I missing here? BOL this week.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
hoping that it squeaks by ...relying heavily on ucla defense and my perceived gameplans for each side.
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
4:24am? get sum sleep bigman :7_11_4:
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
There is a definite possibility that the spot hurts miss st here. A lot will depend upon how they view that last game. Will they take solace in the fact that they went toe to toe with a top ten team or will they hand their heads because the offense did not score a point and went 0-14 on third downs in that game ? One thing I am not too concerned about is the lookahead.... i don't believe that is as big a factor for conference cellar dwellers who are looking for any win they can on their schedule. While I think the GT defense is pretty stout , i also do not think it is in Auburns class. The bulldogs should get some first downs here. The road win at BC and close loss at VT are impressive performances but both of those two offenses are considerably down year over year as well..... in other words , i dont see miss state being all that far behind those teams offensively(behind for sure but not as far as most think). I like the fact that the offense should come into this game with a chip on its shoulder motivation wise. Auburn had the 3.6 ypc but ran the ball a ton too. 45 attempts and miss st had to defend the pass more honestly with auburn attempting 26 throws. If i were miss st i would use an extra linebacker with the nice mismatches they have on the outside .. a run stopping safety at a minimum committed to line of scrimmage.
So i suppose that spot is a concern but it is outweighed by the matchup in my opinion..... i hope ....
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Santacapper
Pretty much a regular
GL Kyle:shake:
bull
Coattailing Cheerleader
:36_11_6:
You took the words right out of my mouth, DMoney.
Great thread as usual, Kyle, and I repeat that I love your review of what went wrong and what went right the previous week.
Having bet on New Mexico in games 1 and 2, I found their win over Arizona a total surprise. Actually, I shouldn't say it that way because not much surprises me in CFB. Only something like Stanford/USC last year.
I like your card this week and especially a couple of the lines you got. You must bet BOOKmaker on Sunday nights ?
I think and hope that Rutgers breaks out this week,
They will make my slate along with Miami, SJSU, Tenn, and MSU.
You won't find me psoting these because I try to post games that others have bypassed. I play a lot more games than you and most guys bet on.
Can't add anything on that LSU/Auburn game. A good one to bet your gut and put 10 bucks on it.
Any thoughts on the UTEP and UNLV games? I'm leaning toward the small FAV in both. Because (1) NMSU is bad and (2) I state goes two time zones( I think) after losing their annnual emotional game with Iowa last week.
I appreciate all the insight you and others provide.
Being an FCS afficionado, I find this week there are 76 games for me to look at, so it helps to have others cut down on my workload.
Wishing you a great week, and if you have any FCS questions just hit the bullsheet thread. I see where Alcorn was a winner last night. Hope you were on the right side.
bull
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Thanks Bull.
As far as unlv this is the first time we have beaten a ranked foe under sanford , so not sure yet how we will respond to that. Thre is some history here as unlv was robbed in game at ames in 2006. Sanford blew a gasket ......
file://<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/SCpcAum2BSM&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/SCpcAum2BSM&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
Have no idea what to expect but rest assured sanford wants to win this badly.
As for UTEP , they should win this game but i dont like laying a td with a defense that bad and it is a rivalry game of sorts. Have a really bad feel for my alma mater at this point .... i mean they get destroyed by buffalo but outgain the longhorns..... i have no clue.
As far as unlv this is the first time we have beaten a ranked foe under sanford , so not sure yet how we will respond to that. Thre is some history here as unlv was robbed in game at ames in 2006. Sanford blew a gasket ......
file://<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/SCpcAum2BSM&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/SCpcAum2BSM&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
Have no idea what to expect but rest assured sanford wants to win this badly.
As for UTEP , they should win this game but i dont like laying a td with a defense that bad and it is a rivalry game of sorts. Have a really bad feel for my alma mater at this point .... i mean they get destroyed by buffalo but outgain the longhorns..... i have no clue.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Really i just wanted 3 points Tee ....going to be one of those close games where a few key plays decides the outcome. Did not like the fact that pitt was coming off the bye week while iowa was coming off the rivalry game. senior kickers vs sophomore kickers. first road game of the year for iowa and kind of want to see that. Still like iowa to win the game as i think they match up well defensively against what pittsburgh likes to do but not sure i trust that offense on the road in this spot ... just a bunch of little things that keeps it just off the card. i like iowa here though.
Time for big daddy to chime into the thread. Haven't read it all yet, will review in a bit. Just bits and pieces so far.
First, your locked in plays. Great number for the Canes. I would still lean TAMu but gave up on that game. Really no opinion on Rutgers so I'll be rooting for you. This may be a time though where Teel can excel for once. Had the discussion about SJSU a few days ago. I am kinda waiting to see if the line gets un-bobbed. I cannot argue with the Utah play at all. Another one that is growing on me a bit. Pillowfight in neyland for us. Messy St looks solid. Now, and the shock on my face was huge....the total for UCLA-Zona is that freakin high??? Wow, I am definetly looking into that. I have UCLA and figure for a low scoring gut it out win.
You eliminated all your strong leans. I like that you did that with Arkansas and LSU. I personally lean the other way in both contests.
GL this week...:shake::shake::shake::shake::shake:<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Thanks BAR.
Completely understand liking florida in this game .. it is easily the one i am most antsy about. Wierd week in that none of my leans ended up making the card this week. Looked for a good tease involving the strong leans but really didnt find one of those either as i couldnt get iowa at +1.5 teased to 7.5 and i let the lsu line get to a bad spot where it crosses the zero... leaving wake forest as the only game where i liked what the tease would do for me.
yeah surprised by the ucla-zona total as well. Really jsut think the scoring drives in the game should mostly be time consuming .. not exactly big play offenses vs weak defenses in my opinion. Perceived gameplanning is my angle here. hope it works out.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Am very happy with the numbers i got this week from openers .. doesn't always work out but it did this time.
miss st +8 BM current 7.5
rutgers -3 bm current 5.5 !!!!
utah 7 bm current 9.5 !!!
vols +8 bm current 7.5
sjsu +10 bm current 7.5 !!!!!
miami fl -2 bm current 2.5 ( a lot of late tamu money )
zona/ucla total under 56 bm current 52
so was way way ahead of the moves this week. 13 points the best of current number on only 7 bets. if the day goes badly atleast i know i had the best of the line.
miss st +8 BM current 7.5
rutgers -3 bm current 5.5 !!!!
utah 7 bm current 9.5 !!!
vols +8 bm current 7.5
sjsu +10 bm current 7.5 !!!!!
miami fl -2 bm current 2.5 ( a lot of late tamu money )
zona/ucla total under 56 bm current 52
so was way way ahead of the moves this week. 13 points the best of current number on only 7 bets. if the day goes badly atleast i know i had the best of the line.
Last edited:
