2008 cfb --time to post my week 4 card so far

[RetroVK]

Sides 9-13-1 -5.81 units
moneyline dogs 0-1 -1.00 units
totals 6-1 +2.13 units
middles/teasers/parlays/traps/etc 2-1 + $470

Alright went 5-3-1 last week and also won the teaser bet. Still down a few units on the year at this point as i played slightly less than full units last week for bankroll management purposes. A good week this week and i will be back to playing 1 unit per game next week.. Overall record with sides and ml included is 15-15-1 so despite feeling like things have not gone my way, the record is not all that bad. As usual i will recap the games in order that i feel that i capped them from worst to best.

Arizona -10 loser -- I think I failed to give the spot enough credit in this game. Arizona off two dominant wins , in first road game for young defense , with conference opener ucla on deck vs a team that was already 0-2 at home on the season and very battle tested. Don't get me wrong , the lobos showed marked improvement from week 1 to week 2 and now in week 3. I am sure there are a lot of people who don't know about rocky long but this guy can coach. The lobos secondary matched up well with Arizona wide receivers and tackled well in space on the quick hitting wide receiver screens, bubble screens and quick hitters. While the lobos benefited from +4 in turnovers and short fields left and right , the wildcats had just 3 more first downs and just 53 yards more of offense. The wildcats were held to just 67 yards rushing where as unm had over 200. This is not a stat sheet that you want to see when laying DD on the road. It is always easy in retrospect to second guess a bet , but I truly believe this was a bad bet.

nevada +27 loser --In a lot of respects I dont really feel that i capped this horrifically. I knew there was a chance that missouri would just go off on nevada and they did racking up 651 yards of offense and some HUGE plays. I needed a couple of punts from these guys and for nevada to maintain hope into the fourth quarter. I got what i wanted out of the nevada offense with 362 total yards and 22 first downs but they couldn't keep up with missouri scoring. After watching the nevada tackling , i wouldn't make this bet again but with the majority of my angle being nevada ability to move the ball and get high twenties a lot of the time in this game , i dont feel i was off the mark by much.

cmich -3 over 51 push/winner -- feel good about the total part of this bet as there was 944 yards of offense produced and the final of 31-28 was a pretty easy win. However , i am not so sure about the side. chippewas had just 1 more first down than ohio and ohio actually outgained them by 78 yards. cmich benefited from +2 turnovers and a punt return td. Once again the chippewas started slow and spotted ohio a 14 pointlead before taking over the middle of the game outscoring the bobcats 31-7 over that stretch. Did not see a play of this game and would like to hear from anyone who did. Heart goes out to the kids at ohio as they are now 0-3 and had legitimate chances to beat each of their first three opponents ( wyo , tosu and cmich)



southern miss +3 and over 52 winner/loser-- Felt good about how i capped this game out. Southern miss jumped out early with a 17-3 lead and never trailed once in the game. ASU had a 5 FD and roughly 100 yard advantage in the game , but some of that is attributed to early lead for eagles. With the score 27-24 i really needed a fg drive by asu for ot to secure the over which was one point shy but qb leaonard for asu was intercepted and the final fell at 51 points. The game was a tossup as to who would win so i feel good about having the 3 points. There was 795 yards off offense as well , so feel good about the total that i lost as well. Didn't work out to win both sides of the bet but i like how i capped it.

maryland +14.5 winner-- maryland jumped on cal early who might have had a hard time adjusting to early east coast start time. final score was clsoer thn the game as maryland dominated. wish i had moneyline a 14.5 pt dog .. oh well.

byu - winner -- not much to discuss. total domination. 30-13 fd edge , plus 3 in turnovers and a 521 to 239 yardage advantage. As advertised , the bruins struggled to run and craft couldn't get the job done on the road offensively. byu was a machine on both sides of the ball.

san jose st -- held sdsu to 7 first downs , under 10 yards rushing , and had over 300 yards more of offense. wow.

locked in

rutgers -3 ( bet to win 0.80 units )( cris ) added sept 14
miami florida -2 (Bet tow in 0.80 units )( cris ) added sept 14
sjsu +10 (bet to win 0.80 units )( cris ) added sept 14
utah -7 ( bet to win 0.80 units )( cris ) added sept 14
tennessee +8 ( bet to win 0.80 units ) ( cris ) added sept 14
mississippi st +8 ( bet to win 0.80 units )( cris ) added sept 14
arizona/ucla under 56 ( bet to win 0.80 units ) added sept 16

Strong leans

kansas st -4 eliminated sept 17
lsu -3 eliminated sept 20
iowa +1 eliminated sept 17
wake forest +4 eliminated sept 17
arkansas +10 eliminated sept 20
Talk me off leans

baylor +14.5 eliminated sept 16
arkansas +10 moved to strong leans sept 17
notre dame +9 eliminated sept 17
ballst +3.5 eliminated sept 16
cmich +10.5 eliminated sept 16
army +7.5 eliminated sept 16
tcu -24 ( i am a believer ) eliminated sept 15

 

[VThokies]

Maybe it was you that moved the rutgers line to 3.5 before I could get back for a second helping....

 

[RJ Esq]

VK,

What do you think about Ole Miss -6?

 

[broadwayjoe]

didn't even see that sj st line...are they kiddin?

i like miss st and tenn myself, and both are potential plays too.

kind of disagree with miami and utah, but not really sold on the other side of either yet. no opinion on rutgers.

nice to see ya up and goin early again this week....gives us a lot to talk about

 

[RetroVK]

i liked ole miss heading into the game but that was because i thought we would see a -4 or so given recent vandy success. line seems far more accurate than what i expected to see. Also , not sure yet whether vandy is for real or not. maimi ohio has looked far worse than my preseason prognostications and rice is rice ... the gamecock game was a bit flukish in my eyes with the special teams and so on there ... if i were to move backl over to the darkside and look at ole miss , it would most likely be the type of game i tease down and couple with something else that falls just short of a normal play. Vandy qb could be a backdoor nightmare.

 

[RJ Esq]

Speaking of Miami of Oh, how about Cincy at home laying less than 13? I made the line 17 myself.

 

[RetroVK]

didn't even see that sj st line...are they kiddin?

i like miss st and tenn myself, and both are potential plays too.

kind of disagree with miami and utah, but not really sold on the other side of either yet. no opinion on rutgers.

nice to see ya up and goin early again this week....gives us a lot to talk about

As we all know , stanford relies heavily on the run game and sjsu stuffs the hell out of the run.

sdsu 17 carries 6 yards
nebraska 30 carries 99 yards
ucdavis 30 carries 61 yards

Hard for me to expect stanford to score enough to warrant laying that number.

new friend of mine likes air force in that game and he is a better handicapper than i am. I have to trust myself though. I don't see why miamifl defense doesnt dominate tamu like last year again..... especially with a bye week to prepare for the new ( less powerful ) TAMU offense.

 

[RetroVK]

Speaking of Miami of Oh, how about Cincy at home laying less than 13? I made the line 17 myself.

eh .. they could crush them .. i personally will wait for dmoney cincy thread before deciding on that game. with mauk or grutza i think we would have seen 17 but we are down to third best choice at qb now. As i recall from previous dmoney thread , kelly wants to crush the smaller instate schools when they face them .. and maybe didn't really want to schedule them anymore .. something like that .. so that angle is there too. kelly is a great coach , coming off a loss , with a bye week to prepare and the two games following are just at akron and at marshall. so cincy will be ready. Miami ohio has been far below my preseason expectations. i am taking a wait and see .... how you see the game playing out rj ?

 

[RJ Esq]

True. I forgot about Grutza being out. We haven't seen them since OU.

Lay off right now.

Looking at LSU -2 too. I hate SEC games because it usually comes down to picking the SU winner in tossups.

 

[RetroVK]

True. I forgot about Grutza being out. We haven't seen them since OU.

Lay off right now.

Looking at LSU -2 too. I hate SEC games because it usually comes down to picking the SU winner in tossups.

i like lsu too. auburn might have the best defense this side of usc ... or maybe better ... but i am not sure that is enough to make up for their offense. Auburn has also had a difference in focus ... they have had to prepare for miss st and spend time developing their new offense. lsu has the structure and games vs north texas and appy st and postponed game vs troy mean they have been preparing for auburn for awhile now. Big advantage there for lsu. With that said , lsu will be in for surprise at the defense they face here compared to what they have seen to date. I think lsu wins this game as long as lsu qb doesn't give auburn free points.

 

[RetroVK]

heading out to the local book to watch the steelers/browns game ( thanks for the pm hoopsstarr ) but will be back to comment more on this weeks card. it is my favorite of the year so far.

 

[RJ Esq]

i like lsu too. auburn might have the best defense this side of usc ... or maybe better ... but i am not sure that is enough to make up for their offense. Auburn has also had a difference in focus ... they have had to prepare for miss st and spend time developing their new offense. lsu has the structure and games vs north texas and appy st and postponed game vs troy mean they have been preparing for auburn for awhile now. Big advantage there for lsu. With that said , lsu will be in for surprise at the defense they face here compared to what they have seen to date. I think lsu wins this game as long as lsu qb doesn't give auburn free points.

That's what I'm saying. It may be a coinflip game.

Also, Auburn has the revenge factor from last year and the last second loss.

 

[RambleOn]

Ole Miss line is likely to drop a little bit. Would love to get us at -3 or so. There is no way we lose this game, and I think we win by 6 or so at least. I'm gonna wait but almost def. will be on Ole Miss.

 

[LooseOnTheLead]

As we all know , stanford relies heavily on the run game and sjsu stuffs the hell out of the run.

sdsu 17 carries 6 yards
nebraska 30 carries 99 yards
ucdavis 30 carries 61 yards

Hard for me to expect stanford to score enough to warrant laying that number.

new friend of mine likes air force in that game and he is a better handicapper than i am. I have to trust myself though. I don't see why miamifl defense doesnt dominate tamu like last year again..... especially with a bye week to prepare for the new ( less powerful ) TAMU offense.

if your new friend is better than you...get him in the forum!! nice wk brother!

 

[LooseOnTheLead]

VK..like your top 3 ...as bad as Rutgers has looked so far i just cant see the secondary of Navy containing them. I watched the SJST /Neb game and came away impressed and followed them to the windows last week, Agree that they match up very well w/ Stanford and the line offers value for sure. Last year Miami/AM wasnt a fair fight and now Mia is better while TAM is much worse..all 3 will make my card...look forward the the thread.GL

 

[hoopsstar22]

heading out to the local book to watch the steelers/browns game ( thanks for the pm hoopsstarr ) but will be back to comment more on this weeks card. it is my favorite of the year so far.

:smiley_acbe:


I went to war with that one, that's for sure.... looking good through the end of the 3rd.....

 

[cubsker]

sj st. was impressive. a better team than w. mich and by far better than new mex. st. I was at a family function so I missed the openers.

 

[HUNT]

gl bro..just couldn't play rutgers, I think they are awful..but im rooting for you since I will have nothing on it.

 

[SportsNut]

I worry about Utah covering 7 on the road as well. Been riding them as well and they lost a BS game to AF last year when they were mising key players ( so I do expect a great effort from the Utes). Series history scares me since it looks like it always a highly competitive game . AF just might be thinking they are pretty good at this point . The defense has been the story really.....Seems like the type of game Utah can win but not cover ...they settled for FGs and used good field position @ michigan. If the total is high 50s will probably go under . Unbelievable that AF win w/o a completion vs Houston....:shake:

 

[O-State]

Thought on Navy Rutgers.

Rutgers held Navy to 254 rushing last year, lowest output of year.

Duke held Navy to 304 last year and once again, held them down this year.

Perhaps there is a correlation in Rutgers matches up well with Navy. I know Rutgers doesn't perform well against conventonal offenses against the run, but Navy is very unconventional and performs well against normal good run defenses.

--Schiano loves the blitz. There might be something in that vs. this Navy O.

If there was ever a good time to get going offensively for Rutgers now is the time I'll tell ya.

 

[RetroVK]

Maybe it was you that moved the rutgers line to 3.5 before I could get back for a second helping....

Glad you like rutgers as well... i know you did your own power ratings and this line is off significantly within my power ratings.

hope we cash

 

[RetroVK]

That's what I'm saying. It may be a coinflip game.

Also, Auburn has the revenge factor from last year and the last second loss.

Agree , revenge plays a role here. Home field here is pretty big too.

 

[RetroVK]

Ole Miss line is likely to drop a little bit. Would love to get us at -3 or so. There is no way we lose this game, and I think we win by 6 or so at least. I'm gonna wait but almost def. will be on Ole Miss.

Not sure where the line is going. I misread where it would open. This is another one where my original power ratings make ole miss a larger favorite. But I have to atleast consider the idea that vandy is better than i gave them credit for ... at qb position especially.

I also heard this voice in my head telling me that ole miss never blows anyone out ...... From my thread last year when we were discussing an ole miss game ramble. hehe. I want to have confidence that i have a 14 point lead in the fourth quarter to lay the current price. Still a game i would consider at a different number,....but unlikely to make the card. Two teams that look good to invest in playing one another and should be a good game. ole miss has had one extra week to prepare than vandy ( samford ).

 

[RetroVK]

if your new friend is better than you...get him in the forum!! nice wk brother!

He visits the forum and throws his two cents in now and then....and there are plenty of cappers all over this board that are better at this than me too. I am a consistent capper of cfb though and expect to win.

 

[RetroVK]

:smiley_acbe:


I went to war with that one, that's for sure.... looking good through the end of the 3rd.....

yup. good call.

 

[RetroVK]

VK..like your top 3 ...as bad as Rutgers has looked so far i just cant see the secondary of Navy containing them. I watched the SJST /Neb game and came away impressed and followed them to the windows last week, Agree that they match up very well w/ Stanford and the line offers value for sure. Last year Miami/AM wasnt a fair fight and now Mia is better while TAM is much worse..all 3 will make my card...look forward the the thread.GL

There are several factors that i like about this game and that i believe help rutgers against navy.

1. matchup in the pass game.
2. rutgers needing to save any chance at bowl eligibility
3. schiano is a great coach , but was humiliated by butch davis last week in game planning.
4. rutgers familiarity with option
5. line value received from losses to unc and fresno losses and deceiving final scores.

one concern that i have is that rutgers wore down ( and/or quit ) in the fourth quarter of both of their football games this year. Option attacks will test your will to play defense and tackle and remain disciplined on every play. Obviously there is a mike teel concern as well. One thing that i am not concerned about is navy attempting to defend rutgers the way UNC did. Need big run stopping DL to do that and rutgers should have a lot more success in running here. In other words , if navy tries to commit to stopping pass by dropping a ton of guys into zone coverage , the knights will have an easy time gashing them on the ground. Davis utilized that DL masterfully but navy doesn't have the same horses to try it.


i agree with you completely on miamiflorida. Kyle field ( greatest name of a stadium in america cough cough ) is a tough place to play .. but they just competed in the swamp ... not going to be intimidated here by locale. TAMU is going to have similar growing pains this year as michigan.... they are instituting an offensive system that these players were not recruited to run. Previous boxscores say that canes can get some first downs here and they shouldn't need many.

sjsu is my favorite play on the board. Unless you think stanford holds sjsu to under 13 , i can't imagine that side having a ton of value. There is atleast a chance that we are getting 9-10 points with the better football team.

 

[RetroVK]

sj st. was impressive. a better team than w. mich and by far better than new mex. st. I was at a family function so I missed the openers.

family is more important than openers ... but not by much.

Glad to hear you were impressed by sjsu. Huskers should have a fun bye week and should be prepared to handle vtech next week .. a win there makes the mizz showdown all the bigger and maybe a "college gameday" appearance.

 

[RetroVK]

gl bro..just couldn't play rutgers, I think they are awful..but im rooting for you since I will have nothing on it.

I disagree. I think they are above average. They really should have beaten that fresno team that just went toe to toe with wiscy and a lot of the unc final score was a snowball effect. Could be wrong of course ,,,,

 

[RetroVK]

I worry about Utah covering 7 on the road as well. Been riding them as well and they lost a BS game to AF last year when they were mising key players ( so I do expect a great effort from the Utes). Series history scares me since it looks like it always a highly competitive game . AF just might be thinking they are pretty good at this point . The defense has been the story really.....Seems like the type of game Utah can win but not cover ...they settled for FGs and used good field position @ michigan. If the total is high 50s will probably go under . Unbelievable that AF win w/o a completion vs Houston....:shake:

Well , the scores have certainly been competitive lately in this series but I have reason to expect utah to be more inspired here ... the dog in this matchup has won su something like 6 of the last 9 times they ahve played. quick notes on why i am dismissing some of the trend data for this one....

-This is the first time in awhile that utah faces air force in a revenge spot.
-last years defeat was when utah had lost all the skill players the week before at oregon state... including brian johnson
-i liken this particular matchup to the 2004 matchup where utah did spank air force a little.
-- in victory last week afa was out first downed 20-29 , and outgained 380 - 584. I realize that some of this is due to the fact that the falcons were ahead early but that is a significant disparity. They are also getting credit in the line for winning at houston as if hurricane meant nothing to the players. Distractions were high and the move to dallas made it a lot closer to a neutral field situation
-note the previous spots that utah ahs played air force the last few years as compared to this year...as i already mentioned last year they faced them in week 2 after slew of key injuries with ucla on deck no less , in 2006 , they faced them the game prior to byu ( lookahead ) . in 2005 they had air force sandwiched between tcu and north carolina , in 2004 it was a good spot and they won by 14 , and in 2003 they had them in a normal spot with revenge ( i believe , correct me if wrong ) and needed OT to pull it out. This year they had utah st before this revenge game and weber st after... full attention.

so i think the trend is mitigated somewhat by situational spot ...

 

[RetroVK]

Thought on Navy Rutgers.

Rutgers held Navy to 254 rushing last year, lowest output of year.

Duke held Navy to 304 last year and once again, held them down this year.

Perhaps there is a correlation in Rutgers matches up well with Navy. I know Rutgers doesn't perform well against conventonal offenses against the run, but Navy is very unconventional and performs well against normal good run defenses.

--Schiano loves the blitz. There might be something in that vs. this Navy O.

If there was ever a good time to get going offensively for Rutgers now is the time I'll tell ya.

I think navy "gets theres" to a certain extent ... i just think rutgers does it more easily. As long as Teel stays composed. Navy is tough to defend as you say but i do think it is an advantage that rutgers plays navy every year. Also have the advantage of style here in a fall behind or get ahead situation. If navy falls behind they still have to grind it out witht he option but if rutgers gets behind they should be able to move the ball with the quality receiving group. Rutgers was just -6 at home to north carolina and now laying just 4 at navy .... incredible line value.

Interesting observation concerning whether blitz packages schiano uses will disrupt the navy attack a little. I don't have the answer to that but will certainly be mindfulof it when i watch the game and will make ntoe of whatever happens.

 

[pags11]

great thread here kyle...appreciate the update on the SJSU receiver...after I thought about it some more today I thought Wake was the play...appreciate your insight...

 

[Schrute]

Solid week 3 Kyle

Card looks good this week too. Really like Rutgers and I lean Wake as well. The only one I think I will be against you on is the GT vs Miss State game.

 

[Blue_Chip]

sjsu +10
tennessee +8
mississippi st +8
:shake: on the above three. I am waiting because I think Florida gets bet up despite Tenn's domination of UAB.

I like LSU to win with the running game. You know the defenses will be ready to play, so I look to the under in Auburn as well. I am thinking about taking Wake +4 as well, but need to look into it more.

I won't talk you off of Arkansas +10 because I might be jumping on this, but I will wait because I think the public continues to pile on Bama throughout the week.

 

[JPicks]

As always great thread.

As far as TCU goes I honestly think you can find a better time to play them than now. They are the real deal and maybe I don't know enough about SMU, but why lay 24 on the road the week before the Oklahoma game? If SMU is Utah State bad then I can understand as the talent gap will be so wide it won't matter if they overlook them or not. Is SMU Utah State bad?

Wish I could have gotten some of that Utah -6.5 or 7. A little worried about the Utes being down to a third string DT on the road against the Falcons who have given up on passing this year.

 

[O-State]

Went back through some great thoughts in here VegasKyle.

The Utah - Air Force game.

---Utah is a known commodity that is SOLID across the board. Air Force has played two one dimensional teams, Wyoming and Houston, the latter who showed vs. Okie State they can't stop run.

This is a different test right here.

We all knew Air Forces departures coming into this year. I think now we can accurately say they are not significantly worse than last years squad. Like they always do, they have replaced attrition on the Oline as it's more about system there.

With that said, I believe they are not as solid as last years squad. Qb passing game still a ? and defensively secondary still some ?s.

If you take experience and what we know for certain, compared to the uncertainty we know of Air Force of just HOW GOOD they are by the teams they have played, I think you have to take the more well rounded Utes.

What is a little disconcerning is that Air Force put 334 on the ground vs. the Utes last year.

 

[RetroVK]

great thread here kyle...appreciate the update on the SJSU receiver...after I thought about it some more today I thought Wake was the play...appreciate your insight...

thanks pags , wake is on the short list.

 

[gjl02]

stay away from wake fsu there are better bets on the board.. fsu is getting there best player and dt back plus fisher hasnt really gotten into his play book yet.

 

[gjl02]

plus fsu's kicker situation is shaky with gano out a few more games

 

[RetroVK]

Solid week 3 Kyle

Card looks good this week too. Really like Rutgers and I lean Wake as well. The only one I think I will be against you on is the GT vs Miss State game.

ok will give some quick thoughts on this game and why i think miss st is the play. I will start with my concerns and then get into why i bet the bulldogs ....

my major concerns

1. I am not sure whether or not I consider paul johnson the best coach in college football , but i am confident that he makes my top 5
2. improvement -- i think that GT is one of those teams ( like arkansas , oregon st and hawaii ) that will see marked improvement each month as the season progresses. The more repetitions the better the offense will be,
3. Consecutive conference road games where they performed well and now return home
4. miss st off demoralizing loss 3-2 auburn.

Why i bet mississippi st

One thing that I like to do ( though sometimes forget to ) is look at a game and how i think it actually will play out ... what will the pace be ? what is the likelihood of team A blowing out team B etc etc..... It gives me a good gauge about whether one side can be eliminated for me as a play and that easy elimination often lends itself to an even harder look at the other side. GT was an easy elimination for me based on how i see the game playing out ... a hard fought pound it out game..... and one that rates to not be a blow out for either side..... in other words i have to ask myself which i believe is more likely ... miss st and gt tied in the fourth quarter or GT up 14 or more in the fourth quarter. That is an easy answer.... so i really feel in my minds eye that i am never out of this game. Here are some reasons that i have come to this conclusion...

--GT style of offense slows the game way way down. Total rush attempts and pass attempts in games played by GT are , 129 vs jacksonville st , 130 at BC , and 110 at virginia tech. limited number of possessions

--laying over a td with a team that doesn't produce first downs .. GT is averaging just 16.7 first downs per game. Granted two of those games were on the road vs two pretty good defenses in VT and BC but miss st is no slouch. 4 FD a quarter does inspire me a little bit with the bulldogs while getting over a full td.

--miss st defense matches up really well vs Gt offense. It starts with their basic rush defense , which has held louisina tech to 82 yards on 33 carries , southeast louisiana to 27 yards on 33 carries and auburn to 161 yards on a whopping 45 carries. That's 90 yards a game given up on the ground ... and just 2.4 yards per carry. Sure they will give up a larger average per rush here and more yards in this game probably than the last three combined but can do so without fear of geting burned in thepassing game. Miss state can completely sell out to stop the run. Pegues can take out the number one pass option for georgia tech and they can commit to the run without fear of play action. GT has only attempted 12 passes per game on average over the first three games.

--Running back dwyer left the game last week with a back bruise. He is the workhorse for the offense. Status uncertain right now , but unlikely he would be 100 percent.

--yellow jackets kicker is now 2-6 on fg and missed an extra point vs VT last week. Hard to have confidence in that kid right now and hard for him to have confidence in himself. points will be at a premium here , so that is huge. the miss st kid is just 2-4 or so i believe.

-- i like the return game for miss st compared to that of GT. The hidden yards will be big in this game as well.


So I see GT getting about 19 first downs at home in this game .... scoring somewhere around 17-23 points .... i wont need much from miss st offense. i dont expect much .. but i wont need much.

 

[RetroVK]

sjsu +10
tennessee +8
mississippi st +8
:shake: on the above three. I am waiting because I think Florida gets bet up despite Tenn's domination of UAB.

I like LSU to win with the running game. You know the defenses will be ready to play, so I look to the under in Auburn as well. I am thinking about taking Wake +4 as well, but need to look into it more.

I won't talk you off of Arkansas +10 because I might be jumping on this, but I will wait because I think the public continues to pile on Bama throughout the week.

nice to see you on those three as well ... you were right about the miami fl line moe earlier this year and it proved important.

i like lsu too , mainly because i believe their offense can be competent enough for one good sustained drive , and i cannot say the same for the auburn side. However , with a more reliable offense , i am concerned that more confidence in it may lead to the more dangerous turnover plays as well. losing some value as i ahve waited ... 3 points is meaningful number of points for this game in my estimation.

agree on the arkansas line , have time to look that one over as most will be on bama and king saban.

 

[RambleOn]

Not sure where the line is going. I misread where it would open. This is another one where my original power ratings make ole miss a larger favorite. But I have to atleast consider the idea that vandy is better than i gave them credit for ... at qb position especially.

I also heard this voice in my head telling me that ole miss never blows anyone out ...... From my thread last year when we were discussing an ole miss game ramble. hehe. I want to have confidence that i have a 14 point lead in the fourth quarter to lay the current price. Still a game i would consider at a different number,....but unlikely to make the card. Two teams that look good to invest in playing one another and should be a good game. ole miss has had one extra week to prepare than vandy ( samford ).

I was wrong about where it was going, too. Started at 5 and up to 6.5 now.

And yes, I DO remember that conversation about the Rebs not blowing people out. However, this year it looks, so far at least, like that era is behind us. The Rebs led Memphis the entire game and never let them back in it, although they did give up 1 touchdown in the 4th quarter. Ole Miss also started out slow against Samford but played better in the second half, instead of worse. Hopefully, this trend will continue.

I'm not sure if I really want to be laying a TD here, though. VK, I can almost guarantee that we win this game, but I cannot guarantee that we win by more than a TD. In all likelihood, if I can get some money in BM, I'll be teasing this one with something else. BOL. :shake:

 

[RetroVK]

stay away from wake fsu there are better bets on the board.. fsu is getting there best player and dt back plus fisher hasnt really gotten into his play book yet.

Well , i am not nerly done looking at this one yet .... FSU is posing some problems for me as far as analyzing what they are at this point. Wake has advantage of several "real" games under their belt. They did beat the seminoles in tallahassee 30-0 last time they were there. Still alot to look at here .... thanks for the update on the kicker situation. preseason power ratings had wake as a favorite on a neutral field for me against FSU so i think senior laden team hangs tough throughout and has a chance for win or cover at the end. wake forest as an underdog has made a lot of folks a lot of money. Grobe did not cover off the bye week last year. Need to get more in depth about how they matchup and appreciate any further insight into this game.

 

[RetroVK]

I was wrong about where it was going, too. Started at 5 and up to 6.5 now.

And yes, I DO remember that conversation about the Rebs not blowing people out. However, this year it looks, so far at least, like that era is behind us. The Rebs led Memphis the entire game and never let them back in it, although they did give up 1 touchdown in the 4th quarter. Ole Miss also started out slow against Samford but played better in the second half, instead of worse. Hopefully, this trend will continue.

I'm not sure if I really want to be laying a TD here, though. VK, I can almost guarantee that we win this game, but I cannot guarantee that we win by more than a TD. In all likelihood, if I can get some money in BM, I'll be teasing this one with something else. BOL. :shake:

The idea of a tease did cross my mind.... think i stay away as there will be better opportunites to bet vandy and ole miss this year i think.

 

[RetroVK]

As always great thread.

As far as TCU goes I honestly think you can find a better time to play them than now. They are the real deal and maybe I don't know enough about SMU, but why lay 24 on the road the week before the Oklahoma game? If SMU is Utah State bad then I can understand as the talent gap will be so wide it won't matter if they overlook them or not. Is SMU Utah State bad?

Wish I could have gotten some of that Utah -6.5 or 7. A little worried about the Utes being down to a third string DT on the road against the Falcons who have given up on passing this year.

Eliminated TCU today. It takes an extraordinary circumstance for me to lay the huge numbers. I just rarely do it. I can take the big spreads and lose though ..hehe.

i have seen two smu games and they look utah state bad... ( sorry aggies ) ...Another game where tcu coach patterson might want to knock smu around a little to keep recruiting edge , though they recruit different types of players. week before oklahoma is a strong reason to not play tcu , very strong. Still ... it is kind of hard to figure out how this doesn't get ugly. Staying away.

Confident that utah can simply ouitscore them ... Air force has been lucky each of their last two games to have gotten the early lead... have to expect utah to get that here... Air Force if forced to throw at all will have a long game. utah by 16.

 

[O-State]

Couple thoughts

...what has changed in the FSU - Wake game? Both teams quite frankly really similar to years past, big question for FSU Offensive line. They have a true freshman from Ohio at LT, a very thin kid that is not ready to play and this tells me all I need to know about that OLine.

...Waiting for RMS999's thoughts on Vandy. I've been waiting for this spot to take Ole Miss. Those losses to graduation have not been lost on my mind. They were run on somewhat by a bad Carolina Oline and I see vulnerability there which is Ole Misses strength. On offense I would think Ole Miss can contain this one dimensional offense all in the qb's legs. Playing a mid major like Rice is where a freak athlete in an option format usually takes over, see much more trouble vs. Ole Miss. So far vs. Miami and Carolina Vandy is one of those teams that yardage doesn't matter they put points up in any kinds of ways. I love Vandy's overall team speed but I think they are vulnerable to smashmouth teams strong on both lines.

 

[gjl02]

Couple thoughts

...what has changed in the FSU - Wake game? Both teams quite frankly really similar to years past, big question for FSU Offensive line. They have a true freshman from Ohio at LT, a very thin kid that is not ready to play and this tells me all I need to know about that OLine.

...Waiting for RMS999's thoughts on Vandy. I've been waiting for this spot to take Ole Miss. Those losses to graduation have not been lost on my mind. They were run on somewhat by a bad Carolina Oline and I see vulnerability there which is Ole Misses strength. On offense I would think Ole Miss can contain this one dimensional offense all in the qb's legs. Playing a mid major like Rice is where a freak athlete in an option format usually takes over, see much more trouble vs. Ole Miss. So far vs. Miami and Carolina Vandy is one of those teams that yardage doesn't matter they put points up in any kinds of ways. I love Vandy's overall team speed but I think they are vulnerable to smashmouth teams strong on both lines.

Fsu has 2 qbs which can scramble thats the big change. not to mention fsu has as many weapons as anyone on offense. just the kicking game keeps me worried about the noles covering.

 

[Blue_Chip]

Any movement making LSU a heavier fave is bad. The last two games at Jordan Hare between these two: 10-9 and 7-3. Not to mention LSU has not won at Jordan Hare since the mid 90s or so. Steele says "home teams has won last 8 times, and the winner of this game has been winner of SEC West 6 of last 8 yrs."

 

[RetroVK]

great thread here kyle...appreciate the update on the SJSU receiver...after I thought about it some more today I thought Wake was the play...appreciate your insight...

Still no word on whether he plays this week.. would be a nice bonus ...

WR Kevin Jurovich, the Spartans’ top receiver, missed Saturday’s game with mono and it’s unclear how much time he will miss.


offensive line is finally pretty healthy.

FG kicking might be a concern and i guess i didnt pay attention to it but the spartans have had a pass intercepted by the opponent and returned for a td two consecutive weeks ..... surely they won't do that again for a third week ?? cough cough.

 

[RambleOn]

Any movement making LSU a heavier fave is bad. The last two games at Jordan Hare between these two: 10-9 and 7-3. Not to mention LSU has not won at Jordan Hare since the mid 90s or so. Steele says "home teams has won last 8 times, and the winner of this game has been winner of SEC West 6 of last 8 yrs."

Totally agree. LSU is creeping up and it hurts. I'll take ML prob if at all for a side. The play here is the Under. This has 10-7 written all over it. :shake:

 

[RetroVK]

Couple thoughts

...what has changed in the FSU - Wake game? Both teams quite frankly really similar to years past, big question for FSU Offensive line. They have a true freshman from Ohio at LT, a very thin kid that is not ready to play and this tells me all I need to know about that OLine.

...Waiting for RMS999's thoughts on Vandy. I've been waiting for this spot to take Ole Miss. Those losses to graduation have not been lost on my mind. They were run on somewhat by a bad Carolina Oline and I see vulnerability there which is Ole Misses strength. On offense I would think Ole Miss can contain this one dimensional offense all in the qb's legs. Playing a mid major like Rice is where a freak athlete in an option format usually takes over, see much more trouble vs. Ole Miss. So far vs. Miami and Carolina Vandy is one of those teams that yardage doesn't matter they put points up in any kinds of ways. I love Vandy's overall team speed but I think they are vulnerable to smashmouth teams strong on both lines.

Will have some more thoughts on wake/fsu later int eh week but i do agree with your general assessment about ole miss oline vs vandy. I think they will continue to be strong ATS against passing teams where their secondary can match up well but will struggle more ATS against those teams that can line up and pound them. Very valiid assessment by you , i think. Nice coaching at vandy and they may be thinking "magical season" right now. Excited kids make a big difference. And the qb just makes enough plays to win ..... i cant bet this game... who am i kidding ? vandy at 7.5 looks good ,,,,, ole miss at -3 or 4 kind of looks good .. line is inbetween ... guess the linesmakers win.