Nothing specific really. From playing alot of games each week I tend to just go off previous weeks . I had WVU vs Auburn and @ UConn this week while I nearly played Uconn hosting Cincy and had CIncy vs USF . A tad bigger sack I would have been 4-0 L2 for these teams but feel I have this teams pretty well pegged .
Just think the Cincy offense is going to struggle and would expect they score 17 or less here .
I just don't see why you think they would score 17 or less. I know they have olny given up 17 or more twice this year, but Cincinnati is the best offense they will have faced this year. Villanova, Colorado, ECU, Marshall, Rutgers, Syracuse, Auburn, UConn - basically a list of teams that were outgunned (Villanova, Marshall, Syracuse), injured (UConn - Endres), playing poorly (Rutgers), or defensive-minded (Colorado, Auburn, ECU).
Basically Cincy had 3 1st H turnovers at home vs USF who I think is extremely overrated this year . Only 1 2nd H TD , were lucky to SOD USF inside their 5 yd line early 4th quarter and had a back breaking 12 play 91 yd drive in the 2nd Q after a gift TD early starting at USFs 14. So think Cincy has been sloppy on the road , not sure how to weigh Pike and regardless they havent run the ball anyway .
WVU starting to click and looking at some medicore work by the Bearcat run defense coupled woth White throwing it fairly well now . Along with how WVU offense has done with WHite in the game since those terrible road efforts its going to be tough on Cincys defense IMO . Cincy schedule is very weak when we look at it with wins vs Miami Ohio m @ Marshall , @ Akron plus RU by a few and a 1 AA school . Leaving the USF game as all that stands out IMO which even that not being a fan of USF doesnt hold much weight.
USF certainly played poorly at Cincy, and the final score probably should have been closer. Cincy may have had a gift TD, but USF could have had a couple too if they had taken advnatage of the TOs early on. Also, if not for Goebel's late fumble, you are looking at 20-7 or 24-7 at the half.
I agree that Cincy could use a little more of a running attack, but Mauk thrashed them last year without one, so I think Pike can do just fine with the same WR core.
I think Cincy's run defense will be fine. Outside of the late 54-yard run by Brown late in the game when Cincy had already mentally checked out, just did a pretty good job against him. Take away Grothe's crazy 38-yarder when he escaped two sure sacks last week and the numbers change as well. This run D still rates highly in the pecking order that is the NCAA.
Cincy's schedule hasn't been a murderer's row, but you could argue that it has been tougher than WVU's, particularly now that ECU and Colorado have proven to be below-average squads.
After this WVU has a BYE then 2 big road games and doesnt play a home game till 12-6 after this . Obviously would love to get -7 somehow . Also last year WVU was backdoored by Cincy on the road squandering a28-10 4th q lead . The 28-23 final just missed the 5.5 pt road fav but the TOP was huge and that was at Cincy . Think WVU is getting back to the level of team it showed last season while dont see Cincy as even remotely as good as last year and still they caught 5 pts at home in the matchup.......:cheers:
I personally think that the gap between this year's and last year's Cincy is smaller than that of WVU.
