2008 cfb - Time to post my week 11 card so far

Eliminated ncstate and oregon from my strong leans and unlv from my tmo list.

Really unsure about the rebels at this point so that just sort of fell off my list .... the ncstate game got away from me as its 3.5 now and the oregon game really got away from me as its 14 now.

So last lean on the board is okie st and i have lost considerable value there as well. will wait and see what happens.....


maybe drbob will help me out this week.

Also only see two totals i like this week so even though this weeks card will be bigger than most of my cards last year , it will be one of my smaller cards this year. i have done a better job of not leaving value on the table this year.
 
Why did you eliminate NCST? Still a strong lean for me here but need to check into their recurring injury situation
 
etg i think ncstate is still worth a look.

i just could have gotten much better and as you know i hate taking the worst of the number as i feel it is bad long term business.

when i dont play a game at 4.5 and it crosses the 4 to 3.5 ... i now have to like it A LOT more than when i originally laid off.

Probably where the value is and not saying i wont revisit if it moves upward but not playing for sure at 3.5
 
Kyle - just noticed that you added tOSU as a lean...I just added them to my final card, and like the Buckeyes even if Bacher and Sutton are a go...though, there is a good chance at least one, if not both of them are out.

:shake:
 
Aztec4Life said:
Kyle - just noticed that you added tOSU as a lean...I just added them to my final card, and like the Buckeyes even if Bacher and Sutton are a go...though, there is a good chance at least one, if not both of them are out.

:shake:
Click to expand...


The way bacher has played i am not sure kafka ( sp? ) is not the better guy anyway. Bacher has either regressed or has talked to a local who convinced him he will never take an nfl snap. sutton is the big loss as conteh is ok but not in the same class.

question is can i trust tosu to score on the road ?
 
vegaskyle said:
The way bacher has played i am not sure kafka ( sp? ) is not the better guy anyway. Bacher has either regressed or has talked to a local who convinced him he will never take an nfl snap. sutton is the big loss as conteh is ok but not in the same class.

question is can i trust tosu to score on the road ?
Click to expand...

Bacher has not played well at all this season. Kafka possibly threw Minny for a loop with a staff that had never seen him . Possibly not knowing what to expect and the kid could just had one of those days where it all goes right . Most of his damage was done with his legs and hard to believe even at home that versus Ohio State's defense he can do that . Wildcat defense is fairly solid and as you said Ohio State has some questions. The only thing I would say is look at who they struggled versus USC and Penn State two of the best in the nation. Nwestern while solid is nowhere near that caliber team or defense .

Not a big teaser guy but like anything they have a place at times IMO.

SD Chargers -5.5
Ohio State -1
Nebraska +8.5 or maybe Georgia PK .

Seems good to me .....:shake:
 
Baecher can blow up at anytime..he has done it before..he and sutton need one another though.
 
vegaskyle said:
The way bacher has played i am not sure kafka ( sp? ) is not the better guy anyway. Bacher has either regressed or has talked to a local who convinced him he will never take an nfl snap. sutton is the big loss as conteh is ok but not in the same class.

question is can i trust tosu to score on the road ?
Click to expand...

I am very confident that Kafka is the better QB, and I don't think highly of either. Bacher is awful though.
 
Bacher's arm strength was great his sophomore year after coming back from injury, then it was pretty good last year although at the end of the year he was really forcing a lot of throws...this year, his arm strength and his decision making have been highly questionable...
 
Rough start to the week with TCU failing to cover tonight.

Hopefully the rest of the week sees better results.

Agree with everyones thoughts on Bacher,
 
kyle- that was a tough loss for you last night. Not on it myself, but was pulling for the frogs.
Of your remaining slate, it looks like I'll be joining you on FSU, Iowa (again), Nebraska ( my number won't be as good as yours) and I really like ND. Only reservation is my reluctance to play on teams that are coming off multiple OT- especially a loss. But I don't think BC has had to defend a passing game anywhere as good as what ND is capable of. BC's offense doesn't scare me too much either.
Missed your usual reprise of last week's capping evaluation.
Oh, if you must play on the Penn-Princeton game tonite on ESPNU, which I don't get, I would try Penn.
GL this week.
 
bull said:
kyle- that was a tough loss for you last night. Not on it myself, but was pulling for the frogs.
Of your remaining slate, it looks like I'll be joining you on FSU, Iowa (again), Nebraska ( my number won't be as good as yours) and I really like ND. Only reservation is my reluctance to play on teams that are coming off multiple OT- especially a loss. But I don't think BC has had to defend a passing game anywhere as good as what ND is capable of. BC's offense doesn't scare me too much either.
Missed your usual reprise of last week's capping evaluation.
Oh, if you must play on the Penn-Princeton game tonite on ESPNU, which I don't get, I would try Penn.
GL this week.
Click to expand...


Suffice it to say TCU was one of my better capped games of the year against utah. this is why we all laugh when people declare "lead pipe locks" and "game of the year". strange stuff can happen in football games. the end result of that game was at the far end of the bell curve and that happens more than we like to think about. Was one of my better bets and i have a good feel for both of those clubs , so i can complain about the result but all i can control is my capping and decision making. i think the only game i had capped better all year was eastern michigan at bgsu. says a lot about why i dont like to lay huge numbers in football games as a general rule ... you can dominate and lose outright ... just think of what can happen when you are laying over 3 td.

Appreciate the tip on penn. Not sure i can get action down anywhere on that game but if i can i will tail ya. you know the ivy league like the back of your hand.

sorry i forgot about the recaps .... will post them in a second.


got a terrible number in the fsu game . sigh.
 
Whoops forgot the recap post. Here is recap of last week in order of worst capped to best capped.

went 7-5

Louisville -13 -- loser Terribly capped game. Louisville as a two td favorite was outplayed by Syracuse. The cardinals moved the ball on the opening drive as expected for a 7-0 lead but that was as close as they would come to the number all day. Ville had a 22-18 first down edge BUT were outgained by the cuse 385-351. When I lay two td I want a dominant effort and that never occurred in this game. Cuse put up 21 straight and they did it legitimately. Watched most of this game and I thought Syracuse looked improved again.. I say “again” because they have gotten a tad better each week in my opinion. Syracuse averaged over 8 yards per pass and 5.4 yards per carry ….. Never saw that coming and this was easily one of my worst capped games of the year.

Oregon st -12 loser-- Another misevaluation on my part but atleast I was not alone on this one as this was probably the sharp play of the week. Sharps were wrong though. The beavers did have a 22 -14 first down edge and a 370 - 295 yardage edge which generally would get you to this number. However the starting qb got knocked out and on one of the next few possessions canfield threw an int for a td ( sound familiar ? ) . But in this game the box score does not tell the whole story. Back tracking for a second , I think I made a mistake in thinking asu had quit. They played inspired foorball and I have to wonder if it had to do with Erickson return to Corvallis or whether it was the fact that they got a little healthier. Herring looked better than I had seen him all year , the little kid ( #5 cant think of his name ) at wr had a nice game and carpenter played with heart and threw nice balls all night long. That was a clear difference from what I expected emotionally out of asu. Beaver backers will point to some interesting calls down the stretch while forgetting the number of times that the devils had to settle for fgs when they threatened. I was on the wrong side of this bet.. Was almost a coin flip as to who would win and I am laying double digits. Sick.

Wake forest -6.5 -loser-Well I almost got lucky in this game as duke outplayed wake but still trailed late fourth quarter before lewis hid harris for a 20 yd td to send it to overtime where wake eventually won by making a fg and getting an interception. Duke out first downed wake 21-16 and out gained them 376 - 344. Had duke not turned the ball over 4 times and had a safety on a punt play , they win outright. Wake forest is not the team I thought they were coming into the year. I was convinced of that prior to this game but they are actually even a lesser version of my reduced expectations. Unlucky for duke ml backers and that means that my -6.5 was the wrong side. One of the few games I did not get to watch.

Washington st at stanford under 54 loser-- rumor is that harbaugh is in the running for the raider job and I cant wait since he keeps taking my bankroll each week. Did not see this game but know that it was played in similar bad weather that we saw in the Oregon/cal game. Did not see this game either but I rarely feel bad when a game goes over and one of the two teams is shutout. Means I had atleast one side of the ball right. Lost this game in the middle of the second quarter when stanford started a run of scoring 5 td in just over 15 minutes of football. Just 36 first downs combined and 691 yards of offense. 58-0 final. This is what I get for having any money backing the Washington st defense.

Temple/navy over 44 -winner- on paper it looks like it went over easy but it didn’t. needed some late heroics by the navy team to win the total. Game never really looked good to me but am happy to cash. 44 first downs and over 800 yards of combined offense but that includes overtime. There ws just 28 points after three quarters so it was a lucky win of sorts.

Tamu -2 -winner- put this one right above the +2 loser because they are mirrors of each other .. Basically an even played game where the turnovers hurt Colorado and helped tamu. In an evenly played game I prefer to have the points and not be laying the points. Colorado had the first down edge and an 80 yard edge in total yds.

Iowa +2 -loser- no problem with this bet. Iowa had a 21-14 first down edge but were out gained by Illinois by 3 yards. Difference between winning and losing basically came down to a defensive score from Illinois. Down 8 late , Iowa scored a td and converted the two point conversion. At +2 points I was happy about it because iowa had all the momentum and there was still time on the clock for a juice Williams mistake. Unfortunately , juice played well and set them up for a fg which they connected on and won by 3. Thought iowa played a lot worse than I expected and still were the better side of this bet so I have no problem with it and would bet it again tomorrow.

Cal/Oregon under 64.5 -winner- one of the strangest games I have ever watched. Not sure if it was because of rain but both teams were turning the ball over left and right. Some helped my total and some hurt my total. There is really no way to describe how this game played out if you weren’t watching so I will just point out the stats and move on. Outside of overtime possibilities , there was never a point where I felt that I was going to lose this bet in the second half. The first quarter was a different story. 638 total yards and 37 first downs. So stats back up the under play. There were 8 turnovers in the game.

Clemson +4.5 -winner- Had Clemson not turned the damn ball over it would have been a much easier win but they almost found a way to lose the game , though the bet was never in real jeopardy for me. I was getting +4.5 points and the opposing team had 11 first downs and 236 yards of offense. Bc scored on a blocked punt for td and benefited from some other Clemson gaffes in this one. Some would argue this was my best capped game of the week but I also feel fortunate to have gotten 27 points of my own off just 16 first downs.

Wvu -3/ over 44 -winner and winner- Does uconn ever commit a penalty ? I have never seen a team consistently get the best of the officiating the way uconn does. Trying to point it out this week because I won the bet and don’t want to point it out after a loss as it sounds whiny . For several years now this team has gotten every bounce and every call. This past week they commutted just one penalty but finally got hit by the turnover bug themselves as they turned it over 5 times. Wvu made so many bad reads of blocks in the first half it was amazing. Devine got a little banged up and spent a majority of the first half on the sideline after getting something like 4 carries. He came back in the second half to help them put this one away. Neither the total or the side seemed in good shape at halftime but it was 28-13 to start the fourth and that was a good position for me. White scored late td run to secure the total. I guess the Clemson game was better capped than this one. But I won two bets on this game so I kind of like it hehe...especially since i try to avoid having two units involved in one event.

Tcu -13 -winner- basically a mirror image of the Utah game last night except on the scoreboard. Tcu won this one 44-14 and the game was never in doubt and it became even more apparent that unlv had no shot after omar clayton went down with injury for the rebels. 27-12 first down edge and a 410-175 yardage edge … basically what we saw last night prior to brian Johnson led drive for Utah for a win. Total domination.

Actually putting the whole card in perspective 7-5 was not a bad outcome .. Won some close ones and lost some close ones. Won one I shouldn’t and lost one I shouldn’t
 
Was the UNLV lean with or w/out knowing Clayton being out? A bit surprised you like(d) the Rebels in that one. Really really hope TCU gets a team that isn't completely pathetic in whatever bowl game they go to so the line is somewhat reasonable. That team is unbelievably talented.
 
One other question if you don't mind. What do you have the BYU@Utah line at with your power rankings?
 
In Iowa City right now and it's just nasty outside. It was snowing a little earlier, now it's a mixture of misting and steady light rain. It's in the low 30's and I don't think it's going to be much better outside by game time tomorrow.
 
JPicks said:
Was the UNLV lean with or w/out knowing Clayton being out? A bit surprised you like(d) the Rebels in that one. Really really hope TCU gets a team that isn't completely pathetic in whatever bowl game they go to so the line is somewhat reasonable. That team is unbelievably talented.
Click to expand...


Was with clayton at qb ... without him i would not only not like the unlv side but prefer the unm side. in fact , unm is probably a good bet.
 
JohnBoy224 said:
Definitely when you have the best RB in the country on your side :)
Click to expand...


thanks for the weather report .. helped me remember we dont ahve a weather thread up yet too.

Greene could possibly be the most underrated player in the country .... in fact , if someone is more underrated i must not have heard about him ( yes that is a joke ).
 
added

purdue/michst under 53
pennst/iowa under 43.5


also i blundered with editing original post after a first kickoff with the tcu game having been played already. i dont like doing that but the game was a loser and i am sure folks can attest to the fact there has been no Mouse business with the plays.

that should do it for me this week. not playing any of the remaining leans.

final card looks like this with tcu already being a loser

TCU -1
Nebraska +3 -120
Iowa +8
FSU -6
Notre Dame +3
Colorado State +10
marshall/eastcarolina over 44
purdue/michst under 53
pennst/iowa under 43.5
 
Time for my friday night weekly , how did i do vs the lines ....


TCU -1 .......................closed -2.5 ........................+1.5 differential
Nebraska +3 -120 ........current -1.5 ......................+ 4.5 (xtra juice though ) told you wrong team favored lol
Iowa +8 ......................current +8 .........................EVEN
FSU -6 .......................current -4 :( ...................... -2 drbob likes clemson
Notre Dame +3 .............current +3.5 ...................... -0.5 impatience cost me a huge half point
Colorado State +10 ............current +9.5 .................. +0.5
marshall/eastcarolina over 44 ...current 46.5 ..................+ 2.5
purdue/michst under 53 ...........current 52 .................... + 1
pennst/iowa under 43.5 ...........current 42.5 .................... +1

all in all not bad .. huge suckage with regards to fsu and the half point on the notre dame game could end up hurting. but overall i got the best of it vs current numbers. used bm numbers from a few minutes ago.

gl gang.
 
I am to lazy to post my leans and plays but two early ones I really got interested in where UNC and Illinois . Such a huge game for Ill need it to get to 6-4 with Ohio State and @ Northwestern after this . WMU played a soft schedule and its road games lost @ NEB , lost @ CMU , won in OT on a huge comeback @ Buffalo and struggled to win b 4 @ temple . Struggling to sell tickets as well .

Good Luck !
 
Sorry I couldn't participate much in the thread this week VK.

BOL today - you deserve a big day.

Strange that we don't have any of the same totals leans, as we usually do.
 
didn't even see you leaned on my bucks. agree 100% and may still pull the trigger. tress is in a nasty mood. but he's awful off a bye week
 
nut , yanks , hoops , dmoney , joe -- thanks for stopping by.

went 4-5 for the week. 3-3 on sides 1-2 on totals. Feel ok about the effort as it was an average type week for me where i had 5 games right and 4 games wrong. Just had the tcu beat go against me ( i consider it my second best capped game of the year and it was a loser ). All other bets i got what i deserved.

TCU -1 loser ( somehow )
Nebraska +3 -120 winner
Iowa +8 winner
FSU -6 winner
Notre Dame +3 loser
Colorado State +10 loser
marshall/eastcarolina over 44 loser
purdue/michst under 53 winner
pennst/iowa under 43.5 loser

Will have recaps and new thread up tonight. i have a lot to say about next weeks card so i expect a good thread this time around.

updated cfb record

updated through week 11
overall 67-55-2 54.9%
Sides 43-38-2 53.1%
moneyline dogs 1-1
totals 23-16 58.9 %
 
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