2007 Rough Copy #1 of Week 1 Lines

TroyStacks

TroyStacks

18" Pythons
Starting with ACC today and moiving on through conference as I have time. I will update in the first post. Home team is the line.
ACC
WF @ BC -4.5...BC will be strong this year mark it down for ACC champs at good odds, very likely IMO

FSU @ Clemson +6...FSU will be a force this year in ACC Clemson lost a lot

UConn @ Duke +/- Who gives a fuck haha

GT @ ND -5.5...Claussen eh? Ok lets see the defense fatty. As much as i hate Gailey I think Balls backup (its early I'll remember these names soon) is legit and will save him for yet another year. The running game is still there and will run all over ND @ home gimme all the points you want stupid public ND cocksucking clowns.

Nova @ MD +/- Whatever

Marshall @ The "U" -13/-15...Not sure yet but gimme the rejuvenated hurricanes minus anything up to 17/20 range IMO.

UCF @ NCST -7...Just on the fact of quality recruiting until I look deeper into this

JMU @ UNC -9.5...Yes I know I can't ebleive I think this either but I think coaching wins this one big. Hell my line might even be a little low but give me UNC and Davis huge over a 1-aa (good aa) at home and one for the fans to feel good about for once other than bball

UVA @ Wyoming...Let me look into this later no opinion yet

ECU @ VT -24.5...Lane will be rocking and support and emotions will take over. Beamer will have these boys playing their hearts out at home in week 1 and not look ahead to LSU where they get pummelled. Top 5 toughest places to play when they present a solid team. Maybe line is too low in fact.

Ok theres the ACC as of now the title of this says it all so lets get the convo going on this guys. Predictions:

Coastal:
BC v. FSU---Toss up IMO right now

Atlantic:
GT v. Miami---Miami slight edge as of today


BIG 12

Baylor @ TCU -3...TCU has a solid team and Baylor although improving isn't quite up to TCU talent IMO.

Col St. @ Col-4.5...Col played with some heart last year despite being out talented in most games. Hwakins has a few players of his own now and I feel has his players wanting to play hard for him. Theres some stat about underdogs here I cannot remember but closer to week 1 I iwll look into it becaue I know its hitting aroun 90% or something and that doesn't lie right there.

Kent St. @ ISU-5...Kent St. I believe returns a lot of players and also if I am not mistaken Bret Meyer is gone as well for ISU. Mac took care of business last year vs the cyclones and I feel this year will be more different with 2 teams going in opposite directions as I see it now. B12 guys help me here I'm sure. Rigth now gimme KSt on the ML.

CMU @ Kansas-7...KK can help me here I am sure. Meier I think it was #7 for KU @ QB showed alot in his first year and I think he will do very well this year. B12 will get public money over the MAC but I wouldn't be shocked to see an outright upset here so I have to imagine this line will be inflated a little and would take the points if this situation pans out right like I have it.

KSU @ Auburn-14... SEC team with senior QB I will take this all year against a sub par big conference opponent especially @ home. Tubervilles tigers roll here.

Ill. @ Mizzo-5.5...Have to imagine this is and upset in the making. Juice is loose and Illini have done some damn good recruiting and oibviously Zooks FL boys did the job. Watchout for this B10 team under the radar this year. I iwll take points with them all year if they play how I think they will. Lots of heart and talent on this team. Daniels and that RB will be good but I think Zook has the coaching edge and better athletes. NCAAF is all about athletes and playmakers here it is.

Nev @ Neb-16.5...This is a BLOWOUT for the huskers. Like this team a lot and feel they could spoil a few seasons if not make a season for them. Under the radar indeed in the public eye lets noit be stupid here. GO RED!

NTX @ OU-28...No play as of now but talent wise this should be a blow 3 or 5 TDs is the question though more research needed on a game like this.

OSU @ UGA-6.5...I think UGA will dominate this game. Things will come together for the dawgs unlike last year and will be great. Saw a lot of good out of the cowboiys last year but this here is SEC defensive football. Athens will be geared up for this game. I see a line as mentioned above but could also see it go either way as in -3 or -10 as well. Not sure how books will play this one but i think UGA wins by DD here.

ARKSt @ Tejas-38...Every line that Texas has against chumps is right around or below -40 and guess what 9/10 the cover it.

Montana St @ TAMU-27.5...TAMU I expect will be in the hunt all year. Start the year off with a blowout at home.

TT @ SMU.... No opinion TT lost some players I beleive and need to look into an improved SMU team of last year.

Predictions:

North
Mizzo v. Nebraska---Big Red roll

South
Texas v. TAMU---Gotta say Tex will win this game

Texas plays Neb in Oct so time will tell who wins the championship
here


BIG 10

Iowa @ N.Ill +6... This will be a smaller line than expected for a B10/MAC matchup. Iowa brings in a new QB but better WRs. However they have replaced their DL in 2/4 spots as well as TE with 2 underclassmen who I hear are stepping up. Defense wins tgis game for the hawkeyes as N.Ill learns to pass this season and will be tough to do in the beginning. Watch for the safeties to get a pick or two off Nicholson who was decent at best last year when Horvath was out. Too much to overcome in the first game of the season IMO so I would hammer Iowa at this price.

UAB @ MSU -13.5.... Ok Stanton is gone and so is 2/3 WRs but UAB looked horrible in spring practice allowing tons o rushing yards and on offense throwing 5 picks! Give me the younger and more enthusiastic coaching staff with more talented players over CUSA scrubs @ home.

BG @ Minnesota -18... Minnesota retuirns a good RB in Pinnix and a senior WR in Wheelright who I like alot. Two QBs will replace Cupito and both had great spring ball games so either can start and produce. BG won't be able score too much but may rattle the young Golpher QBs early in the game until the talent takes over and open it up in the 2H. Minn traditionally kicks the piss outta scrubs and this year is no different IMO. Minny BIG 35-13 type feel.

FIU @ PSU -27...PSU @ home in week 1 against a shit team. Lions return 8 starters on offense including butler and williams. that alone is good for 3 td win. Throw in the home crowd, coaching experience and a solid defense you have yourself an old fashion ass whooping. 47-9 game. Morelli builds confidenc eis this one.

Purdue @ Toledo +20... Purdue returns the whole offense basically and will tear up a rockets team that has no second CB named as starter. They are soft in the sedcfondary and Painter will eat that up. Cochran is good and so is Parmelee but thats not enough for the B10 boys. BLOWOUT potential.

WSU @ Wisky -17... cougars are shit and Wisky looks to reload this year. Fondy finish this off pal and give me a good writeup. I liek the badgers here no matter the line.

Championship: too wide open to pick right now but I like teh bucks, lions and badgers in the front I think right now, still lots more research to do.

MAC
Army @ Akron -4.5... Normally I would say who cares but after doing some research I see a situation where Army may win their opening season game on the road. Zips lose their QB and 4 OL and their leading reciever is coming off foot surgery over the spring. Army has new blood in the coaching staff and brings in a defensive unit that was plagued by injury last year losing 2 DBs and some DL. This year they bring in an Iowa transfer and return 6 starters on defense. Army has enough weapons to win and play tough if QB improves. I'll take the points.

Mia(OH) @ Ball St. +7...Red hawks returns 15 total and return their all star RB after missing 2006 with injury. He impressed coaches in the spring game and shows no sign of rust. Ball St. fields a shitty secondary and will get exposed by QB Mike Kokal. Being muklti dimensional against a horrendous defense spells a recipe for disaster.

Buffalo @ Rutgers -19.5...Plain and simple ass whooping here. Buffs showed heart last year but they just aren't good. They got heismann candidate to pad some stats so i see this getting out of control by 27+.

Navy @ Temple +16...Navy is just coached better than most team they play against. Plug and chug......literally. Against shitty teams Navy just rolls over them with that option offense and the defense plays with great pride and heart, yet are talented. Templ is a team to shit on.

WMU @ WVU -22.5...WMU returns 16 players which is great. But they l;ost their QB and WR and the middle of the defense in 2 LBs. Thats huge. WVU will get inflated lines but I think WVU just barely covers this one and the line is right to get 2 sided action. SLaton 4 Heisman...sorry had to!
 
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TroyStacks said:
Marshall @ The "U" -13/-15...Not sure yet but gimme the rejuvenated hurricanes minus anything up to 17/20 range IMO.
Click to expand...

I was guessing 17/18. Anything under 3 td's should be money. MU has a decent D amd Miami's O is nothing to brag about but is it going to be athletic and fast enough to keep Miami from scoring in 90 degree weather. Throw in a special teams TD late for Miami when Marshal is tired and Marshall not being able to move the ball because the QB sucks donkey ass, no proven RB and 3 new starters on the O-Line = a Miami cover.

I will be at that game, it will be hard to bet against Marshall, but I just dont see them keeping this game close with the heat playing a big factor.
 
I made WVA a 20-point favorite

over the Thundering Herd. Although Huntington's a difficult place to play and this is a huge rivalry game, I think the bookmaker gets stroked with one-sided action with any number in the high teens.

Good luck,
Paul
 
pstone said:
over the Thundering Herd. Although Huntington's a difficult place to play and this is a huge rivalry game, I think the bookmaker gets stroked with one-sided action with any number in the high teens.

Good luck,
Paul
Click to expand...


I had them anywhere 20-23 point favs. True, Huntington is a pretty difficult place to play, but alot of that had to do with playing teams that they are right down better than. And many of those wins came in the Pennington, Leftwich eras.

Also, the season tickets sold record has been crushed this year for MU. Why? wvu fans have bought a huge chunk of them. :down:
 
Nebraska is a def. bet if it's below 17. Nevada without Rowe will struggle against the Blackshirts. I think your GA/OSU line is way too low. GA will be at least a TD favorite and I wouldn't be surprised to see a DD line.
 
Clemson getting 6 at home? I dunno.

I'll take WF getting 4.5

Can't bet VT until I see Glennon can cover high spreads.
 
A few lines I would eat alive:

Tech +5.5 - Can you explain this one to me? ND struggled mightily at times last year despite being experienced on both sides of the ball, and now they lose nearly everyone including their all-world QB. They'll be facing an excellent D which caused problems for Quinn and Co. in last year's opener - how do they get lit up this year? The Irish defense is slow and has been soft so far, and they'll have a lot of newbies out there. Personally, I don't see how GT gets more than 2-3 here.

TCU -3 - TCU will eat this team alive at home, as the Bears have lost their QB, RB, two best WRs, and two best CBs. The Frogs may have some holes to fill, but return Brown in the backfield and Blake/Ortiz at DE. Have you noticed their domination of Baylor in recent years? I say this line is above a TD for sure.

Kansas State +14 - Are you kidding me? This team returns all their offensive weapons, and has some serious potential to be a great squad this year. Auburn lost a TON from last year - Irons, Taylor, the whole OL, Herring, Gunn and Irons on D, and Bliss and Vaughn on special teams. This Tiger team does not have the ability to blow a team like KSU out, who will really compete and battle for some respect.
 
lindetrain said:
A few lines I would eat alive:

Tech +5.5 - Can you explain this one to me? ND struggled mightily at times last year despite being experienced on both sides of the ball, and now they lose nearly everyone including their all-world QB. They'll be facing an excellent D which caused problems for Quinn and Co. in last year's opener - how do they get lit up this year? The Irish defense is slow and has been soft so far, and they'll have a lot of newbies out there. Personally, I don't see how GT gets more than 2-3 here.

TCU -3 - TCU will eat this team alive at home, as the Bears have lost their QB, RB, two best WRs, and two best CBs. The Frogs may have some holes to fill, but return Brown in the backfield and Blake/Ortiz at DE. Have you noticed their domination of Baylor in recent years? I say this line is above a TD for sure.

Kansas State +14 - Are you kidding me? This team returns all their offensive weapons, and has some serious potential to be a great squad this year. Auburn lost a TON from last year - Irons, Taylor, the whole OL, Herring, Gunn and Irons on D, and Bliss and Vaughn on special teams. This Tiger team does not have the ability to blow a team like KSU out, who will really compete and battle for some respect.
Click to expand...

for GT comeon you know how this country loves ND especially amatuer bettors no doubt in my mond bro....

TCU game I'm not too sure of you may be right who knows

KSU is not that good. It is in auburn and maybe i'm a little off but i see atleast 10
 
Good stuff Troy
I'd wait and see what happens with Wisconsins QB battle. Both played well in the Spring game, but I don't take much stock in a glorified scrimmage. If Donovan is named starter early in fall camp it means he stepped up and took over. If it's a game time situation or Everidge wins or even if both play then Wisconsin might be one dimensional for a few weeks. They should be able to run all day on Wash St. yet Wash St. might be able to keep up with it's passing game. Wisconsin is starting 2 new safeties and doesn't have much depth in the secondary even though they have 2 of the best CB's in the Big 10. Could be a good over too look into.

BTW Meyer does return for Iowa St, so does Blythe at WR. I actually like ISU in that game if the line is lower. I think Chizik is going to be a good coach.
 
Im going to have to give the edge to Donovan as of right now. Hes been in the system for 4 years and showed last year AT Iowa that he can be a very capable QB in the Big 10. Great mobility and a decent arm. And he usually doesnt hurt himself with INT. Everidge could take the job over because IMO hes more talented but to start the year its Donovan.

Safety could be a little concern but the 2 they have back their right now are very talented just very inexperienced. I think Wisky defense will be top in the Big 10 this year and as long as Jack Ike doesnt go stealing any more XBOX in the middle of the year it could be one of the best in the nation with the Front 7 they have coming back.

I cant wait for College Football.
 
Signalcaller
I agree with you about Donovan having the edge right now. As long as he continues to progress there shouldn't be too much of a drop off at QB, in fact it could be better because of Donovans mobility. But if he doesn't walk out of QB battle as the clear cut No.1 starter, then QB could be an issue. I've heard that Everidge is very talented but he' having a hard time grasping the offense.
As for the safeties, I've heard nothing but good things about Carter. I don't know much about Pleasant. But the biggest problem is they have no depth and could be playing some true freshman as a nickel back. The secondary could make or break the season for Wisconsin. It's worth keeping an eye on.
If some one steps as a decent KR & PR. Wisconsin will have the best Special teams in the nation.
 
I can't wait to see how Michigan's defense is the first few games..if their defense steps up they should roll through the season unscathed, but that is a big if.
 
Yeah Hunt Michigan should be interesting this year. They lose so man valuable defensive players I cant see how they are going to replaace them. They might score 30 points a game but could give up 35. Whats your opinion on the offense though. Shoul be as strong as ever right. I think Manningham is the best WR in the nation. (Hes also my favorite though so I might be a little biased)
 
Thanks for doing this Stacks, definitely good stuff.

Here are a few off the top of my head thoughts with no research whatsover...

As far as my Heels go this year, I actually am waiting to see what the total is in the opener as I will strongly consider the over if it is halfway reasonable, as I see that one being a 45-35 type of game as JMU can score and I think the newfound speed on D for the Heels could create more than a few big plays leading to short fields for the inexperienced offense. I will chime in on many of the others over the course of the next few weeks.

Another total that might be interesting is the N Texas one as they are moving to that crazy spread style offense which will probably take a while for them to get used to, meaning that OU could end up putting 49 to 56 on the board all by themselves as a result of turnovers and miscues. If this total is reasonable, the over might be worth a shot as the Mean Green might get a lucky score or two off a big play from the new offense.

Thanks bro!
 
Signal, UM's whole line has started several games and Jake Long anchors it. He will be a top 5 pick. THe offense has Mike Hart with Brandon Minor backing him up. At receiver you have Adrian Arrington and Mario Manningham will be healthy. Although Arrington's status is uncertain due to disciplinary stuff I expect him to be back. THey have Greg MAtthews as the third guy who was solid last year. Solid TE in Massey.

Henne at QB..THis team reminds me and BAR of OSU last year when OSU's defense had a lot of question marks but the offense was ridiculous. OSU just simply reloaded and that is my hope with Michigan this year. I jsut don't want a repeat of 2002 it was I believe when it was one of the best offenses I have ever seen but the D was horrendous.
 
good info guys.....SC had no idea meyer was back i thought he was a senior i need some fucking steele rosters hahaha...HUNT good stuff on Mihcigan I'll take your work on it you and BAR know Michgan very well
 
michigan will replace its defensive players... theyre michigan. Even with the loss of leon hall, the secondary will be much improved, as long as lightning-fast morgan trent can learn to cover someone just a little bit.
the offense has some of the most talent in the country and with a very favorable schedule with the only "tough" away games being wisconsin and michigan state, if michigan gets it done in the big house they should be in the national championship game
 
Against ECU, Vegas can't set an accurate line on Va Tech. They can set Va Tech -54.5 -120, and if Tech really wants to cover it, they can and will.

Now will they want to keep all the starters in and cover? I guess you'd have to ask Beamer about that one.

But if Tech wants to cover, there is nothing Vegas can do to stop them.....nothing.
 
FSU and Clemson game is shaping up to be my biggest bet of the early season.

FSU wins this game handily imo, and is a major revenge game.
 
huntdog no doubt. clemson has a good running game bvut thats it IMO. fsu shoudl be able to run this one up on the tigers and bowden will to set the tone for the season. i really like this game a lot.
 
TroyStacks said:
huntdog no doubt. clemson has a good running game bvut thats it IMO. fsu shoudl be able to run this one up on the tigers and bowden will to set the tone for the season. i really like this game a lot.
Click to expand...

Boy...I guess early season will show us something...I have to go against two of the best cappers (I'm sure 3 by gametime...Rex is an unabashed Seminole Pimp) in the CTG... I just have ZERO faith in the FSU Offense....the D will be TOUGH but will wilt under the pressure of an offense that is PATHETIC.

Mully :cheers:
 
if tcu doesnt beat baylor by double digits then the baylor coach guy morriss has nude photos of tcu coach gary pattersons wife.

I also look for iowa state to win the game vs kent state. They better because i cannot find a conference win. ..... if you couple that with a loss to kent ..... and if they lose to kent they will be a dog at toledo ..... where do they earn a div 1a win ? this is a major coaching down grade from mccarney to chizik. good luck getting to three bowl games in five years with this guy. with that said, they have to win this game.

anyone who has followed my posts knows that i think miami ohio is going to better this year ... but i doubt they give 7 on the road to ball state.

i happen to like fsu to beat clemson but , again, i would be surprised to see them laying 6 points at the tigers.

be careful laying too many points with WV against w michigan. w michigan has been tough to run against and the dbs are ball hawk types whom pat white might hit in stride. i will be interested to see what this line comes out as. I also think w mich benefits from facing wv to start the year when they have more time to prepare for the gimmick offense they run.

i mostly point out differences because i think it is better to help each other see where our thinking might be flawed. Most folks posting here have a decent knowledge of cfb so i think it is more beneficial if we discuss where we disagree than where we agree.

remember , i thought ryan leaf would be a better pro than peyton manning.
 
good points. liek i said some teams i will just have a haerd time taking th epoints as in wvu game i think its the mounties or stay away. too many questions going in. i will update all conf by weeks end and then revise and have my final copy by next sunday of all lines
 
The one thing that hurts when betting against this wv team is that you need them to throw the ball in the fourth qtr to stop from running up the score. :) I still remember losing the wv at miss st last year when wv returned punt in final minute to cover the spread. I am not saying that w mich is necessarily a good bet, i am just saying that wv is not a good bet at minus low twenties in this spot imo. As a general rule I do not like laying huge points against decent opposition with defenses that i cannot trust. (although w mich does have some serious ? on offense to start the year). Also keep in mind that as years pass more and more teams will learn how to defend this spread run attack. In fact , I am suprised that more teams dont make pat white beat them with his arm. Rumors out of wv this year is that they experimented with having him throw left handed because no one could believe he could be that inaccurate with his primary hand. I havent made my official power rankings yet, so it is hard to say with certainty on most games where i will be betting. (though i look to lock in gtech monday).

wondering what you think about total points in that ill at mizzu game, troy. i look for the game to be a score festival and wonder how high the books can make this total.

Agree with you that iowa looks like a better ats team this year. you know what people called drew tate here in las vegas ? drew take. Check out his performances against good defenses and against bad defenses. hmmmm drew take.
 
Vegas - Locking GT in already? Damn I am jealous. I wish I could get GT +7.5...oh my
 
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